January 10, 2007

1/10: Maybe This Thing Is Catching On

The explosive blogswarm over Pres. Bush's speech on Iraq says something about the state of the blogosphere today: It's huge, and at least some pretty high-up strategists think it's important enough to make their clients -- some of the most powerful people in America -- take the time to do a little kowtowing.

Both Sens. Ted Kennedy (D-MA) and John McCain (R-AZ) have injected themselves into the debate -- Kennedy with a speech 1/9 at the Nat'l Press Club and McCain, somewhat less willingly, perhaps, thanks to his initial call for more troops. In defense of their positions, each takes to the blogosphere, as McCain guest-posts at PowerLine and Kennedy makes appearances at DailyKos, Blue Mass Group and Huffington Post. That's not all -- Senate Maj. Whip Dick Durbin (D-IL) took time not only to post at Kos, but to answer questions. Then he came back a 3rd time 45 minutes later to clarify a thought and move the discussion to his website.

Three sens, two of whom are almost household names and the third no slouch as a member of Dem leadership, used the blogosphere to further their positions. With that kind of attention, we can only imagine where the future of the 'sphere will lead.

IRAQ I: Make Or Break?

Tonight's the night, and as Pres. Bush warms up his singing voice for his speech, bloggers are setting expectations. MSNBC reports the first troops will be in Iraq 1/31.

Michael J.W. Stickings sums up the left's general feelings about a surge: "The Iraq War has been a disaster. That isn't about to change no matter what Bush says tomorrow night. Does anyone actually believe that Bush and the warmongers will get this right after all they have gotten wrong?"

No one on the left expects much news from tonight's speech. State of the Day: "The president's 'new way backward' has pretty much been leaked to death by the administration, so there should be no real surprises as far as the details go. ... The real story of the president's speech will be the aftermath. The story will be the spin and the people's reaction to it. And, thankfully, if the polls, and our recent change-the-course elections, are any indication, the people have already tuned out the president." He suggests alternate programing, noting the Sopranos premiere tonight and a "Full House" re-run on TBS. == Chris Bowers thinks Dems have an opportunity to boost their advantage over GOPers even higher, comparing the unpopularity of the war and any escalation to the 109th Congress' fight over Social Security. Joe Gandelman: "If after the speech tonight the selling of the plan turns into going after and discrediting those who question it, then Bush will likely be political toast, and increasingly ineffective on other fronts since poll numbers do translate into political clout. Even an all powerful executive branch needs political support in Congress and among a sizeable chunk of the American public."

Red State has a list of speech "prebuttals." Some of the titles:

• A wish list.
• Make It Open Ended.
• America will fight.
• Get Specific.
• Make a clear, forceful case.
• Moving forward together toward victory.
• Ignore the defeatists, and speak to the war.
• Reinforce the objectives, move forward to victory.
• Get back to basics.

From the right, Kim Priestap isn't as enthusiastic in her position as lefties are in theirs: "I'm for a troop increase but they and the troops who are already [there] must be allowed to do what they've been trained to do: to aggressively seek out and destroy al Qaeda and other terrorist insurgents in Iraq. At this moment, our troops are in a terrible situation because they can not do their jobs for fear of the media, which is enthusiastically ready to pounce on any event that they think is ugly." Blogs of War's John Little: "The media and politicians are focusing on these miniscule numbers (20,000 troops) as if additional troops alone will make a difference when we really need bold shifts in both strategy and rules of engagement."

Meanwhile, Sen. John McCain (R-AZ) guest-posts at Power Line on the importance of a surge. Commenters seem to generally respect McCain (there are glaring exceptions) but few show support and many say they won't be voting his way come '08.

Dems, according to the New York Times, are planning symbolic but non-binding votes on the surge. Liberal Oasis thinks Dems should be careful: "There's a danger here in getting bogged down in tactics, instead of articulating alternative strategic goals for the entire region." Matthew O'Keefe, though, thinks Dems "are using the same Republican tactics that were used on flag burning and gay marriage and every other issue that places you in your category and box on the voting ticket."

IraqSlogger has a round-up of today's news on Iraq, most of which are concerned with tonight's speech. Meanwhile, TPMCafe's Greg Sargent cites an NYT item noting that at least 10 GOP Sens are expected to oppose the Bush plan.

Some on the right take time to sample a USA Today/Gallup poll out 1/9 (see 1/9 Hotline). The poll might show slim support for the war, but Dan Riehl spins what he can. Allahpundit: "If you squint, you can make out some good-ish news." Righty Outside the Beltway isn't as optimistic as Riehl or Allahpundit: "The bully pulpit is arguably the most potent tool in any president's arsenal. Unfortunately for Bush, he is quite possibly the least talented public speaker to hold the office in the television era. And I'm not sure even someone with the oratorical skills of a Ronald Reagan or John Kennedy could persuade the public that Iraq is winnable at this stage of the game." SevenStripes also weighs in. == The Corner's John Podhoretz: "If tonight's speech doesn't herald the beginning of a serious turnaround in Iraq that is plain to see by spring of next year, the Risen Christ could be the Republican nominee in 2008 and He wouldn't be able to win against Al Sharpton."

Speaking of the Gallup poll, David Sirota is tired of voices like the DLC's when it comes to troop levels, contrasting a Los Angeles Times quote that the "activist left is out of sync with the American public" vs. the survey, which shows only 10% of Americans favor increasing troops. "Someone please tell me why the media continues to quote people like Will Marshall as a credible voice with a credible perspective? I mean, honestly -- what point, what level of sheer, unadulterated dishonesty disqualifies you from being quoted in major newspapers?"

At AntiWar.com, syndicated columnist/ex-Reagan official Paul Craig Robertswrites : "Bush is like Hitler. He blames defeats on his military commanders, not on his own insane policy. Like Hitler, he protects himself from reality with delusion." DownWithTyranny says Roberts is "saying stuff no Democrat would dare say ... aloud."

IRAQ II: Ted Kennedy, The Ultimate Elicitor Of Strong Emotions

Sen. Ted Kennedy's (D-MA) 1/9 speech at the Nat'l Press Club and his bill to limit the ability of Bush to fund the war or move troops without the consent of Congress is the talk of the town today, as bloggers on both sides sieze on his assertion that Iraq is Bush's Vietnam. New York Times' "The Caucus" has the full text of the speech. Video of the speech and further justification is posted under Kennedy's name at The Huffington Post, and Crooks and Liars has downloadable clips. Kennedy also posts at DailyKos and Blue Mass Group. The bill he dropped is here [PDF].

The right, needless to say, is pretty unhappy with Kennedy's comparison. QandO thinks Kennedy's bill would result in "the caterwalling of a frustrated Commander-in-Chief who's [sic] only command would be, of course, 'get out of Dodge and get out now'. Of course this isn't going to fly, but it is instructive." Blue Crab Boulevard says Sen Dems won't go along with Kennedy's plan, and that after his proposals, "Senate leaders promptly kicked Teddy under the carpet and introduced a non-binding resolution which will not try to limit funds." == Riehl World View highlights scenes from "The Killing Fields." From his post: "Imagine if we followed the Kennedy line on Iraq and pulled out leaving sectarian and terrorist groups behind to slaughter large numbers of people. THAT would be our fault, as we invaded Iraq." == Stop the ACLU thinks Kennedy's wasting his breath: "Whether you think this is the right strategy or not, its gonna happen so you might as well get behind our troops and start cheering for victory."

Moderate Voice's Schulman criticizes Kennedy's plan to introduce legislation requiring Pres. Bush to get the approval of Congress before any additional funding or troop increases occur. "The idea of having Congress micromanage this war -- or any war -- is enough to make me shiver." == Decision '08 sticks to the politics of the matter: "The Democrats have as commanding a position as they've had since the pre-Monica Clinton years (better, actually). If they throw it away with a futile gesture that is so easily portrayed, rightly or wrongly, as harmful to our troops ... well, if it wasn't so bad for the country, I'd be tempted to say their funeral ... but we need Democratic support, so I hope Bush will resist calls to stick it to the Democrats making these noises, and make an earnest attempt to win, if not their enthusiastic support, then their tepid acquiescence." Dr. Steven Taylor takes a look at the political and constitutional chances of Kennedy's proposal. The American Constitution Society gives a brief run-down of some relevant SCOTUS cases.

As is usual for a controversy involving MA's senior Sen, comments get personal and a lot of history comes up again. Don Surber: "Jack Kennedy's America had to bear the burden of protecting Western Europe AND North America AND South America AND Japan AND South Korea AND the rest of Southeast Asia. Alone. 46 years later, the kid brother is whining about having to protect one little Iraq? 21st century Americans do not realize how lucky they have it. We used to have to make real sacrifices." Boston Herald editor Jules Crittenden is no fan either: "As a reporter and now an editor in Massachusetts for more than 20 years, I've had periodic dealings with Kennedy and his staff. The disregard in which I hold him has only plummeted with his antics and bizarre statements in the course of the Iraq war. Now, he wants to provoke a constitutional crisis, on top of a disastrous and massively deadly abandonment of Iraq." Glenn Greenwald gets slightly sarcastic with Crittenden. == Wake up America takes some pot shots at Kennedy but rounds up some righty reaction. == Other righties weighing in: Macsmind, Argghhh! (motto: Mebbe it's just clobbering time), the Amboy Times, the Uncooperative Blogger and Captain Ed.

From the left, some of Kennedy's fans rally. Michael J.W. Stickings, on Kennedy: "He's absolutely right." Impolitic loves Kennedy, and thinks his post at HuffPo is indicative of the '08 race. Big Tent Democrat takes a look at whether Kennedy's bill could pass constitutional muster. == Echidne of the Snakes thinks those disagreeing with Kennedy need to straighten out their facts. == More lefties agreeing with Kennedy: Liberty Street, David Sirota, Democratic Daily, Bill in Portland, Maine and the Mahablog.

GILMORE: Not Many Righty Responses To His Entry

Ex-VA Gov. Jim Gilmore (R) filed papers 1/9 to form an exploratory cmte for a possible WH bid. AP has details. PoliPundit asks: "An option perhaps?"

The Carpetbagger Report: "I lived in DC's Virginia suburbs through Gilmore's term as the state's governor, and I think it's entirely fair to say -- in an objective, non-partisan fashion -- that the guy was among the worst governors in modern history. I can't begin to imagine what he's thinking now. ... Gilmore has an abysmal record and a dull personality. If he comes in seventh in Iowa, I'll be very impressed." Of the post, Michael J.W. Stickings writes: "Sounds perfect. For now, I support Jim Gilmore to be the Republican nominee for president in 2008." == DownWithTyranny cites a recent Dick Morris column bemoaning the lack of conservatives. After taking shots at Sen. Sam Brownback (R-KS) and ex-AR Gov. Mike Huckabee (R), the blogger says Gilmore and Rep. Duncan Hunter (R-CA) aren't even worth commenting on.

ROMNEY: A Position? No, A Press Release

RedState's Dan McLaughlin says that Mitt Romney's statement on Iraq "mostly hits the right notes ... although you can see him straining to both embrace and distance himself from the Bush Administration from the opening line. ... 'I agree with the President: Our strategy in Iraq must change.'"

Democratic Daily's Pamela Leavey knew this one was coming.

DEMOCRATS: You've Come A Long Way, Blogosphere

As DailyKos, Sen. Maj. Whip Dick Durbin (D-IL) wants kossacks to "help me set the Senate's agenda," listing the first 10 bills the chamber will vote on. Righty Swords Crossed dissects the proposals one by one, and AllahPundit finds it ironic that Durbin is posting on a site that once told him to do something anatomically impossible.

At MyDD, Jonathan Singer takes a look at some recent stories suggesting '10's reapportionment could hurt Dems, by virtue of high growth in southern Red states and low growth or stagnation in Dem base areas. Singer's conclusion: "These population shifts, both in and of themselves but also taken in combination with other political changes around the country, should not necessarily worry Democrats about their future in the next decade. Rather in some ways, they present the Democrats with new opportunities to reshape the electoral map in their own favor to perhaps help them achieve a new political reality in the country."

Lpackard, meanwhile, announces the formation of a 50-state blog network. "Blogs like Raising Kaine in Virginia helped make the difference for Senator Webb and others this past election. ... But what about all the states that don't have a state-based community blog yet? How can a community blog reach a larger audience when they have a big story? Can we help each other to grow?" The network will be organized through BlogPAC.

IN THE STATES

Ezra Klein praises CA Gov. Arnold Schwarzenegger's (R) "Cyborg Health Plan From The Future!" "[It] is more ambitious than anything a Democrat has been able to seriously propose in over a decade." And speaking of cyborgs, Klein wonders what Apple is thinking when it limits its new iPhone service to Cingular.

THOUGHT OF THE DAY: Lefty Bias

Blogometer creator-turned-Blog P.I. author Bill Beutler makes an interesting observation about the power of netroots on both sides of the aisle heading into '08. Pitting the Dem Act Blue machine against the GOP's answer, ABC PAC and Rightroots. "The top 5 presidential candidates on ActBlue have received about $434,000, while all candidates on ABC PAC have collected exactly $298. ... As of now, putting ABC and ActBlue side by side is like comparing the Wii to a Tiger Electronics handheld. ABC isn't even playing the same game as ActBlue, and it is far from clear that it ever will."

Posted by Conn Carroll at January 10, 2007 02:00 PM