December 06, 2006

12/6: Obamarama

Lefty opinion of Sen. Barack Obama (D-IL) may be a mixed bag (with more activist types, MyDDs Chris Bowers and Matt Stoller, voicing the most concern) but there's no doubt he generates the most interest of any WH'08 Dem hopeful. Whether by design, Obama seems to leave many lefty bloggers and their commenters guessing as to where he lies on an ideological spectrum, but some in the netroots are beginning to worry about Obama's willingness to distance himself from them. As Obama continues to make Rick Warren-like outreaches to non-traditional Dem groups, how far will the netroots let his rhetoric go before he slips into Sen. Joe Lieberman (I-CT) status?

OBAMA: Apparently Batting .250 Makes You Dem MVP

Taking care to remind readers he still has no '08 favorites, DailyKos' founder Markos Moulitsas announced 12/5 that "barring scandal or the mother-of-all gaffes" Obama should win the nomination. Kos reasons that IA Gov. Tom Vilsack (D) will win IA, John Edwards (D) or NM Gov. Bill Richardson (D-NM) would win NV, and Sen. Hillary Clinton (D-NY) would win NH. Kos then argues SC would fall to Obama "given the state's large African American population, along with Obama's popularity with female voters (yeah, they love him)." The post drew over 1,300 comments (the next popular front page post had 440) many of them supportive of Obama.

Daily Kos commenter johnny rotten, however, reminded readers of a 12/18/03 past Kos prediction: "It is clear that our nominee will be either Dean or Clark. No one else has a shot." Kausfiles also isn't impressed with Kos reasoning: "So Markos Moulitsas expects Obama to lose Iowa, lose Nevada, and lose New Hampshire -- the first three Dem nominating contests -- but he nevertheless declares Obama the "prohibitive favorite," if he runs, because he might win South Carolina? I'm not quite following kos' logic. Does Jerome Armstrong have a new client or something?

At MyDD, Chris Bowers finds mixed news for Obama in Pew Research Center crosstabs showing HRC with a strong lead among African-American Protestants: "First, it shows that Clinton's lead on Obama might indeed be very soft, given that it is largely predicated upon a huge advantage among African-American Protestants, and presumably that would be a demographic where Obama could make up a lot of ground. Second, it shows that her current lead might be understated, since there is no way that African-American Protestants only compose 14% of the Democratic electorate."

Also at MyDD, Matt Stoller reminds readers of his concerns about Obama and offers a blogpulse chart showing spikes in blog mentions of Obama following his television appearances. For Stoller this means: "While Obama has real grassroots support, his campaign is a conversation being driven from the top." Stoller adds: "Obama has been quite the machine boss in his heavy handed moves against Cegelis in IL-06, and he hasn't done anything legislatively in the Senate to suggest he's capable of visionary leadership. So on balance, the evidence leans towards 'empty suit', but he was a good liberal state Senator, so there's evidence on the other side as well."

Lefty bloggers are also still reacting to Bowers 12/4 post highlighting New York mag quotes from Obama that Bowers characterizes as Obama using "left-wing strawmen" to bolster his own reputation. Talk Left's Big Tent Democrat is no fan of this Obama trait: "Democratic stars like Barack Obama especially must avoid doing this in my view. For two reasons. One, it harms the Democratic Party and its objectives. Two, it does not work to the benefit of the Democrat trying to curry favor." Matthew Yglesias is less bothered: "Obama seems to be the sort of nominee you're looking for -- someone who's actually more liberal than his public image would suggest -- rather than, say, an unnamed senator from New York who's less liberal than her reputation (now that I think about it, this applies to both NY Senators, but whatever)."

The Reality Based Community's Mark Kleiman, however, is only encouraged by Obama's success in reaching out to Rick Warren's megachurch: "When Democrats lose national elections, it's because they get creamed among whites who attend church at least weekly. If we could find a candidate who could make serious inroads into that group without sacrificing what Democrats believe in, we'd have a sure winner. ... I'm well known to be a Wesley Clark fan. ... Compared to a Dukakis, a Gore, a Kerry, or a Hillary Clinton, he's way more culturally Red-compatible. But I can't see him getting a standing ovation at a conservative megachurch after talking about condoms. ... Obama, with the Bible in his cadences, sounds like (I don't say he is, but he sounds like) someone who believes in God."

CLINTON: O - VER - A- TED!

Talking Points Memo's Josh Marshall looks at news HRC is telling IA Dems "I'm going to go for this," and he writes: "I've been saying this in one form or another going back to 2001. But I've always thought Hillary's chances are way over-rated. Not just in a hypothetical general election -- that's another matter -- but in a Democratic primary election. As much as Hillary -- who I'm a fan of -- has taken the brunt of ugly beltway conventional wisdom over the years, I still think her apparent strength at this point is just that -- puffed up endlessly by beltway insiders who aren't in touch with the real viability of her candidacy, or lack thereof."

WEBB: Bigger Than Wesley Clark

Sen.-elect James Webb's (D-VA) lefty blogger stock continues to soar. Matthew Yglesias picks out a WaPo article claiming Webb may become "the face of the Democratic Party's antiwar movement" and writes: "Some skepticism about the accuracy of that speculation aside, I'd like to see it become true; Webb has the right cultural and personal characteristics to sell an anti-war message. Post-9/11, I think an awful lot of Democrats have tried to compensate for having bad personal/characterological attributes for the politics of national security by adopting substantively bad policy positions -- John Kerry, Hillary Clinton, and Joe Biden come to mind -- and this doesn't work very well. Webb's roughly the reverse, and feels no need to act defensive about being a patriot and supporting the troops and it worked well for him in the campaign despite the fact that he's not a very natural campaigner."

GOP FIELD: 48% of Dems Can't Be Wrong

RedState's California Yankee notes the winner of Gallup's latest '08 poll was "don't know" and writes: "Other than demonstrating that McCain is the most broadly accepted candidate, favored by 62% of Republicans, but also by a very healthy 58% of independents and 48% of Democrats, there is not much value in this poll. The poll only included 11 of the 24 potential 2008 presidential candidates. Obviously most Americans aren't yet focused on the 2008 presidential campaign."

IA's Krusty Konservative identifies the "Sweet 16" IA operatives still available, including (KK's description in parens): Chuck Laudner (Kongressman Steve King's right hand man), Hans Gullickson (Former Iowa 72-Hour Task Force Director), Nick Ryan (Nussle Kampaign Manager), Tim Albrecht (Rants' Kommunications Director), Sara Taylor (White House Political Director), Craig Schoenfeld (Lobbyist), Brian Kennedy (Former State Party Chair), Steve Grubbs (Former State Representative, Former State Party Chairman), Tamara Scott (State Director for Koncerned Women of America), Joe Earle (Bush-Cheney Iowa Koalitions Director in 2004), Andrea Cerwinske (former Iowa GOP Chair), Will Rogers (Former Ganske and Latham staffer), Steve Scheffler (President of the Iowa Christian Alliance), Kevin Graney (Lamberti's kampaign manager), and Jill Latham (Wisconsin GOP's Political Director).

BROWNBACK: Bet They Threw A Hell Of A Party

IA Caucus Cooler isn't surprised Sen. Sam Brownback (R-KS) landed Family Policy Center Pres. Chuck Hurley: "Why him? Well Chuck and Sam were college roomates, making his decision a rather simple one."

GIULIANI: The Cash Frontrunner?

The Corner's John Podhoretz comments on reports of a 12/20 ex-NY mayor Rudy Giuliani fundraiser hosted by Home Depot co-founder Ken Langone: "If there's one thing we can be sure of, it's that Rudy's ability to generate Wall Street dollars very quickly and with little difficulty will put pressure on other Republican candidates to match his war chest at the end of the first quarter of next year."

MCCAIN: Standing Athwart The Tide

The Corner's Larry Kudlow celebrates McCain's "courage" "principle" and "leadership" while "fighting the tide" of pessimism on Iraq. Kudlow writes: "Now I may not agree with McCain on every single issue, but I am completely behind him on national security. ... My guess is that Americans trust McCain. He's standing tall."

RedState's Erick Erickson has less kind words for McCain titling a post "McCain Trying To Shut Out More Party Chairs." Erickson links to a Sonora Alliance post detailing "Grassroots Arizona" PAC to support McCain friendly GOP chairman in AZ. Erickson claims over 40% of the money for the PAC came from Gregory Wendt and Lisa Wendt who are "big time" San Francisco Dem donors. Sonora Alliance explains: "Greg's has donated to such people as Ron Wyden, Max Cleland, Barack Obama, Diane Feinstein, and Claire McCaskill, among many other Democrats ... Mr. Wendt has supported, John McCain. Greg donated several thousand to McCain in 2003. The link can further be seen by checking the donations of Mrs. Lisa Wendt. She has been very generous to many of the same politicians as Greg, including McCain."

Meanwhile, McCain advisor and Ankle Biting Pundits contributor Patrick Hynesconservativeanxiety "over the absence of a genuine conservative in the race" and assures readers: "Conservatives on the lookout for a genuine anti-abortion candidate should look no further than at Sen. John McCain, who is my client. Sen. McCain has the longest record of service in protecting the unborn among all the prospective Republican presidential candidates. What is more, Sen. McCain's record has been consistent. ... Consider, for example that John McCain has voted to ban partial-birth abortion seven times in his career, including two votes to overturn President Bill Clinton's veto of partial birth bans."

DEMS: That Smarts

Incoming House Intel Cmte Chair Silvestre Reyes (D-TX) tells Newsweek: "We have to consider the need for additional troops to be in Iraq." Kevin Drum is surprised, considering that current ranking member Jane Harman "was passed over for the committee chairmanship because she had supported the war and was just generally a little too hawkish on national security matters. ... Which is better: someone who got it right in the beginning but has since lost his way, or someone who originally made a mistake but seems to have learned something since then? I think I'd pick door #2." Talk Left: "Harman had seen the light. We had gotten her to see the light. She would never have done this."

Jonathan Singer talks about the race for DCCC chair, "a contest made all the more interesting by the purported reticence of the potential candidates." The Hill says leading possibilities are Chris Van Hollen (MD), Debbie Wasserman Schultz (FL), Artur Davis (AL), Kendrick Meek (FL), Mike Thompson (CA) and Xavier Becerra (CA). Becerra and Van Hollen rank highest in partisan rankings, while Wasserman Schultz and Van Hollen earn kudos for caucus dues, money raised for the DCC and contributions for the Red to Blue program. He asks if the netroots should get involved, and has an online poll. The latest tally, as of 10:30 am, with just 14 votes, gave Wasserman Shultz 7 votes and Van Hollen 4.

Rep. Brad Miller (D-NC) writes at Daily Kos that "the sanctimony has already begun over the prospect of oversight hearings" by Dems. But that's because "they think we'll act like Republicans. ... Oversight is not just about causing heartburn for the other party." Meanwhile, Josh Marshall writes that "a big part of what Dems were after in the mid-terms was oversight and investigations. So how many folks know that the chief investigations and oversight guy in the Senate is Joe Lieberman?"

Back over at Kos, McJoan notes that Pres. Bush has invited Dems in the Blue Dog and New Dem coalitions to the WH. "They've decided to hitch their wagon to Mr. 30 Percent Approval? Really? See guys, that's not demonstrating your independence and capacity for 'bipartisanship.' That's just plain old treachery, and idiotic treachery to boot." Later, mcjoan clarifies that "I'm not saying that the Democratic leadership should not be meeting with Bush. That's part of their job. ... But the leadership has to be able to lead, and this move by Bush is an end-run around the leadership. It's an effort by the administration to peel away a block of Democrats that have, to the party's detriment, shown their willingness to buck party leadership."

On the local front, Georgia Politics Unfiltered discusses the prospect of a party switch by state Rep. Mike Jacobs (D). "I contacted Rep. Jacobs for a comment, a confirmation, or a denial, but he could not be reached."

GOP: They Gotta Win Eventually

Not deterred by the defeats of their chosen leadership candidates, The Directors at RedState endorsed Rep. Jeb Hensarling (TX) for Republican Study Committee Chair. They write: "It is time for conservatives in Congress to put up or shut up. In the race for Chairman of the Republican Study Committee ("RSC"), there are two good men running, but only one of them proved his loyalty to the cause in the movement by a repeated willingness to vote against a rule -- a bold and courageous move for a member of the then majority. Only one of them aggressively fought wasteful government spending consistently. That man is Jeb Hensarling and he is our choice to be the next Republican Study Committee Chairman."

On the immigration front The Right Angle's Robert Bluey posts C-SPAN footage of WH Dep. CoS Karl Rove getting a "chilly reception" from Hillsdale College's annual Churchill Dinner. Bluey describes: "During the question-and-answer portion, a member of the audience told Rove he frequently hears from Republicans who want to know what is being done about the open-borders problem. Rove gave an eight-minute response emphasizing President Bush's call for a "comprehensive" solution to the illegal immigration problem. While Rove recited some strong statistics emphasizing increased enforcement on the border, his overall answer suggested the U.S. had no way of keeping illegals out, and therefore, should instead invite them in as part of a guest-worker program. The response from the audience: dead silence."

GATES: Best Hearing Ever!

Ex-CIA Dir. Robert Gates 12/5 Senate Armed Services Cmte confirmation hearings drew more response from the right than the left; and most of it negative. RedState's Jeff Emanuel called the hearings "A rough start for Robert Gates" and Townhall's Hugh Hewitt worried Gates exchange with Sen. Robert Byrd (D-WV) caused "relief in Tehran and Damascus" and "concern in Israel." Power Line's Paul Mirengoff "found Gates' performance somewhat disappointing" but argued it "showed he's up to that task."

Iraq war supporter and fierce Bush critic Andrew Sullivan was pleased with the proceedings: "One feels a sense of great relief to hear the candor of Bob Gates in his Senate hearings. We are losing the war in Iraq; and our incompetence may have triggered the beginning of a massive regional conflagration. At least we now know that someone in this administration is grappling with reality rather than fantasy, that someone has some modicum of responsibility. At last."

Lefty reaction was light but mostly negative. Firedoglake's Christy Hardin Smith was "just appalled at the fluff, the softballs, the preening and the lack of much of any real substance and oversight in the questions and public statements." TAPPED's Adele Stan was argues "no senator on the Armed Services Committee, before which Gates appears today, who votes to move this nomination to the Senate floor will honestly be able to say that he or she has supported a man worthy of the job," but AMERICAblog reasons: "The guy has a creepy past, but there's really no way the Senate can block him. Rumsfeld is gone, that's the important thing, as is Bolton. You can't fight every battle, and we've already won two just out of the gate. And with Gates saying that we're not winning in Iraq, in this administration that practically makes him a prophet (or a heretic)."

The Corner's Jonathan Martin adds a lighter note to the proceedings: "The Senate is, of course, the Senate. And perhaps nobody personifies the courtly nature of the body like Virginia's senior senator. Chairman John Warner gaveled the first session to a close with a typically grand pronouncement that in his "28 years" on the committee, "this is as good a hearing as we've had." Turning to the more plain-spoken ranking member, Sen. Carl Levin (D-MI), Warner asked, "Is that right, senator?" Levin replied, "I'd agree with that." But then, how could he not?"

Finally, in anticipation of the Iraq Study Group report expected out just minutes after deadline, Instapundit rounds up blogger recommendations. Outside the Beltway isn't impressed.

THOUGHT OF THE DAY: Where There's A Will, There's Spam

Reacting to CNETreports on Digg news item manipulation by Internet marketers writing:

Goodness, well before most people knew what a "blog" was, these people were spamming comments sections and trackbacks to build higher pageranks for their sites, a plague with which we're still trying to cope. There are still days when I get thousands of spam comments; thankfully, most of them are caught by my filters. Ironically, many bloggers (myself included) are now trying to exploit Digg and similar sites to drive traffic back to our sites (although I have not used unscrupulous means of doing so).

It's noteworthy, too, that most of those sites are already essentially controlled by cabals of users with nothing else to do who band together and promote the links they wish and ensure that unfavored sites get immediately pounced upon with down votes. The bottom line is that people and businesses are always going to figure out ways to exploit new technologies to their advantage. Some will be more honorable than others.

LEST WE FORGET: Lifestyle Choices

Firedoglake's Christy Hardin Smith reposts some old holiday complaints:

I've decided that God is a capitalist. There's just no other explanation for why someone in my neighborhood bought a giant, air-filled snow globe with the Baby Jesus in it as their Christmas decoration this year. Nothing says "We're religious!" quite like having an inflatable lawn ornament that pelts the Christ child with fake plastic snow bits, let me tell you. I feel diminished in the eyes of the Lord because we don't have one.

Religion is big business in this country. Just ask Ralph Reed. Or those teevee preachers that live in the multi-million dollar mansions and ride around in their Rolls Royce of the month.

What happened to the whole "love thy neighbor" thing? The whole "do unto others," instead of just trying to look like a better person than the other guy by buying more licensed Jesus merchandise? Seems to me that money might be better spent on helping out the less fortunate instead of getting the latest from the Biblical video of the month club. ... It sure isn't my Grandpa's church any more. It's not a religion, it's a lifestyle.

Posted by Conn Carroll at December 6, 2006 12:18 PM