November 08, 2006

11/8: Eye Of The Storm

For more than six months now it has been impossible to read through lefty blogs without seeing some mention of cable exec Ned Lamont's (D-CT) challenge to Sen. Joe Lieberman (I-CT). But after an initial round of reaction following networks calls of Lieberman's victory, CT SEN posting has been light. Now the netroots do have plenty to celebrate (including a 7 for 17 performance for their ActBlue endorsed candidates) but a Dem leadership race in the House is guaranteed (Rep. John Murtha (PA) v. Rep. Steny Hoyer (MD)) and possible in the Senate. How big of a role will the netroots play in these internal Dem contests? Will Sen. Harry Reid (D-NV) escape blogger ire for his inability to force Lieberman out of the race?

On the right, RedState wrote on the need to "scrub" Speaker Denny Hastert (R-IL) before the polls even closed, and they already have favorites picked for minority leader and whip (Reps. Mike Pence (R-IN) and John Shadegg (R-AZ) respectively). The battle for control of Congress may be over, but the fight for leadership of both parties is just beginning. Stay tuned to see how well the blogger favorites in both parties fair.

LANDSCAPE: And Subpoena Powers For All

MyDD's Chris Bowers best summed up netroot reaction to Dem victories 11/7: "DEMOCRATS TAKE THE HOUSE!!!!!!!!!!! YESSSSSSSS!!!!!! ... I just started crying uncontrollably. I haven't done that in years. It was so hard to do this. There have been so many painfully close losses tonight. But we did it."

After celebrating, taunting was the order of the day on lefty blogs. Firedoglake's Pachacutec writes: "the Old Confederacy is the big loser tonight, relegated to the minority in the House. There is no reason, none, nada, zilch, to allow legislation in the House to be held hostage to Southern authoritarian Theocrats and racists anymore. Buh-bye. Meet the losers, folks: Karl Rove, George Bush and the Republicans." Also at firedoglake, TRex adds: "Suck it, Reich Wingers!! Cos now that means we'll have some real honest-to-god oversight in Washington. Subpoena powers! Go, John Conyers!! Give em hell!!"

Other Bowers quick hits on Dem victory include:

• Progressive Caucus Rising. Make no mistake about it -- a member of the Progressive Caucus is now speaker of the House. Further, both Progressive caucus members who ran for Senate won easily, Sanders in Vermont and Brown in Ohio. And now, the Progressive Caucus will control half of all House committees.
• We won bigger than they ever did. Democrats look set to take the House, and with a larger majority than Republicans ever had during their 1994-2006 "revolution." We also won more Senate campaigns in a single cycle, 23-24, than either party has won since at least 1980.
• We are just getting started. This is a big step, and much need vindication for our efforts. But it is still just a step. This is no time to start being risk-averse. We must continue to pursue the strategies that brought us here: silent revolution, fifty-state strategy, small donor explosion, progressive movement, we are all in this together.

Daily Kos commenter tomhodukavich adds: "Never again do we have to hear "Nyah, nyah, you crazy netroots guys - what've you actually won?"

BLOGGERS VS. MSM: Progress On The March

Lefty bloggers sharply watched MSM coverage of 11/7 Dem wins to make sure they played as the progressive victories they felt they were. When Joe Scarborough and others on MSNBC suggested "that Democrats are winning by running as conservatives" TAPPED's Tom Schaller responded: "the House in 110th Congress will witness the replacement of the Republican moderates who followed along with Bush-style, hard-right politics -- and deserve their fate almost as much as the conservatives who led them to their slaughter -- with progressive Democrats." TAPPED's Charles Pierce added: "the result in Tennessee pretty much obliterates a good piece of that theory. Harold Ford makes Bob Casey look like Emma Goldman, and he got handled pretty well by the nebbishy Bob Corker. (And the voters down there should be ashamed that the odious TV ad worked as well as it did.) Ford talked about Jesus, guns, and his own heterosexuality, and he lost to a guy so nondescript that he has no shadow."

Matthew Yglesias made a similar case: "It's true that a few races have seen culturally conservative Democrats winning conservative districts but beyond Health Shuler there really aren't very many clear-cut examples of this. The overwhelmingly predominant trend has been for moderate-to-liberal districts in the Northeast and Midwest to dump faux moderate Republicans in favor of fairly orthodox progressive Democrats. It's regional realignment backlash, not a new Democratic thrust into Dixie."

BLOGGERS VS. WAVE: Are Titanic Comparison's Really The Best Way To Go?

Righty bloggers sensed bad news early in the night, but refused panic about imminent defeat. National Review Online's James Robbins writes: "Tonight I had a wonderful time at the Republican Club on Capitol Hill, enjoying the company of good friends, eating a fine dinner, enjoying lovely wine, smoking excellent cigars, telling jokes and stories, and watching the slowly rising Democratic tide. An homage to Benjamin Guggenheim on the Titanic: "We've dressed up in our best and are prepared to go down like gentlemen."

Michelle Malkin acknowledged defeat for the GOP, but not conservatism and promised: "Unlike Michael Moore in 2004, however, I will not be staying in bed for three days in a catatonic state." At Townhall, Dean Barnett reminded readers to "comport ourselves with dignity and class right now. No shrieks of foulplay, no whining. There's no crying in politics, at least not in public. Let's remember what we want to do more than anything else - better our country. Sore loser antics won't help, and neither will slagging on our countrymen for not seeing things the way we did. We didn't make the sale, and that falls on us."

Other righty reax include:

• National Review Online's Larry Kudlow: "Look at blue dog conservative Dem victories, and look at Northeast liberal GOP defeats. The changeover in the House may well be a conservative victory, not a liberal one. Blue dogs are rabid budget balancers. At tomorrow's news conference, President Bush should reach out to them, and to Republican base, with a spending limitation pay-as-you go proposal that gets to a balanced budget in a couple of years. Any spending increases (defense) must be offset with spending cuts (domestic pork). A spending limit paygo was used effectively by the Gingrich Congresses between 1995 and 1998, the high tide of their limited government period."
• Townhall's Hugh Hewitt: "bad but not horrific night ... And it is a wonderful day for new media, especially talk radio. For two years we have had to defend the Congressional gang that couldn't shoot straight. Now we get to play offense."
• Captain's Quarters: "a trip to the woodshed for the Republicans. ... Free trade is a goner. ... We can certainly criticize it -- and we will -- but we have to respect the voice of the American electorate. They wanted a different direction, and now they have to experience its consequences."
• RedState's Directors: "First, the GOP must scrub its leadership, starting with Speaker Hastert. ... Second, the GOP must re-dedicate itself to first principles. Without a White House governing with conservative principles first, the GOP has been rudderless. The House Republicans must decisively reject the idea of "big government conservatism" and set about, again, reducing the burdens of government on the people. They can start by making Mike Pence the leader of the House GOP and John Shadegg the Whip. ... Lastly, in returning to first principles, the GOP must reunite social and fiscal conservatives.

LANDSCAPE '08: Has This Wave Even Crested?

TAPPED's Mark Schmitt is already looking ahead to '08 Senate races noting: "There are 12 Democrats, and 21 Republicans." Schmitt goes on to peg one Dem retirement (Frank Lautenberg (NJ)) and identifies seven vulnerable GOP incumbents including Wayne Allard (CO), Norm Coleman (MN), Gordon Smith (OR), and John Sununu (NH) in one tier and Mike Enzi (WY), James Inhofe (OK) , and Pat Roberts (KS) in another. Schmitt concludes: "That's seven possible pick-ups in 2008, plus three more that could be picked up with the right candidate. And what if Harold Ford runs against Lamar Alexander in Tennessee? What if Susan Collins in Maine draws a strong opponent? What about Elizabeth Dole, whose image of competence is as shattered as Dick Cheney's? That's thirteen seats the Republicans have to worry about either a little or a lot."

On the right, Power Line's Paul Mirengoff looks at Dem blowouts in supposedly purple IA and MN and worries about GOP chances in '08. Also Ankle Biting Pundits' Bull Dog Pundit offers winners and losers from 11/7 including:

Winners

• Nancy Pelosi - You have to give her credit for her "strategy of no" the last 2 years. She sensed that voters were so angry at the President and the war, she kept House Dems in line and united.
• "Blue-Dog" Dems - Many of the Dems who won tonight ran as "conservative" or "moderate" Democrats. Whether that was a ploy or not we'll find out soon enough. They could, if they so choose, become a bloc of brokers in the House, much like the "Gang of 14? tried to do in the House.
• John McCain and Mitt Romney - Because even in the unlikely event he wins the recount, George Allen's presidential aspirations got flushed down the john tonight.

Losers

• Pres. Bush and his Iraq policy - Let's face it, people didn't like it and it showed in the vote totals.
• Rabid Anti-War Dems: See Lamont, Gene
• Elizabeth Dole -- A pathetic performance from a pathetic choice to head the NRSC.

BLOGGER SCORECARDS: Atrios Bats Over .500!

The blogs Daily Kos, MyDD, and Swing State Project endorsed the following candidates and encouraged their readers to donate to them through their combined Netroots Act Blue page. None are incumbents.

Race     Candidate         Result    Race    Candidate         Result
CT SEN   Lamont (D)        L         VA SEN  Webb (D)          W
MT SEN   Tester (D)        W       

CA 11   McNerney (D)       W         NJ 07   Stender (D)       L
CO 05   Fawcett (D)        L         NY 29   Massa (D)         L
ID 01   Grant (D)          L         PA 07   Sestak (D)        W
IL 10   Seals (D)          L         PA 08   Murphy (D)        W
MN 01   Walz (D)           W         TX 21   Courage (D)       L
NC 08   Kissell (D)        L         WA 08   Burner (D)        L
NH 02   Hodes (D)          W         WY AL   Trauner (D)       L

AMERICAblog endorsed the following candidates and encouraged readers to donate to them through their Act Blue page. None are incumbents.

Race     Candidate         Result    Race    Candidate         Result
AZ 01    Simnon (D)        L         OH 02   Wulsin (D)        L
AZ 05    Mitchell (D)      W         MN 01   Walz (D)          W
CA 04    Brown (D)         L         NY 19   Hall (D)          W
CA 45    Roth (D)          L         NY 25   Maffei (D)        L
IL 10    Duckworth (D)     L         VA 10   Feder (D)         L
IL 06    Seals (D)         L         WA 05   Goldmark (D)      L
KS 02    Boyda (D)         W

Atrios endorsed the following candidates and encouraged his readers to donate to them through his Act Blue page. None are incumbents.

Race     Candidate         Result    Race    Candidate         Result
MT SEN   Tester (D)        W  

CO 04    Paccione (D       L         PA 07   Sestak (D)        W
NY 19    Hall (D)          W         PA 08   Murphy (D)        W
OH 02    Wulsin (D)        L         PA 10   Carney (D)        W
PA 06    Murphy (D)        L         WA 08   Burner (D)        L

The blogs Firedoglake, DownWithTyranny, and Crooks & Liars endorsed the following candidates and encouraged their readers to donate to them through their combined Netroots Act Blue page. None are incumbents.

Race     Candidate         Result    Race    Candidate         Result
CT SEN   Lamont (D)        L         MD SEN  Klobuchar (D)     W
MD SEN   Cardin (D)        W         MT SEN  Tester (D)        W   

CA 04    Brown (D)         L		 NH 02   Hodes (D)         W
CA 11    McNerney (D)      W		 NY 03   Mejias (D)        L
CA 25    Rodriguez (D)     L		 NY 19   Hall (D)          W
CA 45    Roth (D)          L		 NY 20   Gillibrand (D)    W
CA 50    Busby (D)         L		 NY 24   Arcuri (D)        W
CO 04    Paccione (D)      L    	 NY 29   Massa (D)         L
CO 05    Fawcett (D)       L		 OH 02   Wulsin (D)        L
CO 06    Winter (D)        L		 PA 03   Porter (D)        L
IA 01    Braley (D)        W		 PA 06   Murphy (D)        L
IL 14    Laesch (D)        L		 PA 07   Sestak (D)        W
MI 11    Trupiano (D)      L		 PA 08   Murphy (D)        W
MN 02    Rowley (D)        L		 PA 10   Carney (D)        W
NC 05    Sharpe (D)        L		 VA 05   Weed (D)          L
NC 08    Kissell (D)       L

NY SD 41 Keeler (D)        L

OR HD 39 Caudle (D)        L

WI HD 89 Koehn (D)         L

Conservtive blogs Ankle Biting Pundits, Captain's Quarters, RedState, Right Angle Blog, Right Wing News, Townhall, and Wizbang endorsed the following candidates and encouraged their readers to donate to them through ABC PAC. None are incumbents.

Race     Candidate         Result    Race    Candidate         Result

MD SEN   Steele (R)        L		 NJ SEN  Kean (R)          L

MI SEN   Bouchard (R)      L		 WA SEN  McGavick (R)      L

MN SEN   Kennedy (R)       L   

CO 03    Tipton (R)        L         MN 06   Bachmann (R)      W

CO 07    O'Donnell (R)     L         NY 24   Meier (R)         L

GA 12    Burns (R)         L         OH 06   Blasdel (R)       L

IA 01    Whalen (R)        L         PA 12   Irey (R)          L

IA 03    Lamberti (R)      L         SC 05   Norman (R)        L

IL 06    Roskam (R)        W         TX 17   Taylor (R)        L

IL 08    McSweeney (R)     L         WI 08   Gard (R)          L

IL 17    Zinga (R)         L         WV 01   Wakim (R)         W

BLOGMOM VS. BELTWAY: Look Out Charlie Cook!

As part of a 11/7 Hotline "Mother Knows Best" feature, Blogmom Jean Carroll predicted local (CA 09) statewide races and three national races. She was five for five. Go mom! Here's what she wrote: "In California it will unfortunately be Gov. Schwarzenegger, however we will elect our very best Dianne Feinstein back to Washington. In Colorado they will elect Dem Bill Ritter for governor. In Connecticut they will elect Dem J Lieberman. In Virginia they will elect James Webb for senate. These are the races I have been following."

THOUGHT OF THE DAY: Just Like The Founders Drew It Up?

Andrew Sullivan celebrates Dem victory and the wisdom of the founders:

The House of Representatives has now become a key check on an out-of-control executive. It reflects a big shift in the minds and souls of Americans. The Senate is still unclear - but the Dems have made gains, clearly. The founders knew what they were doing. The country wants to go back to the center, to have a sane, reality-based debate about what to do in Iraq, how to rescue the looming fiscal catastrophe, and how to defeat Islamo-fascism and how to detain and interrogate terror suspects.

LEST WE FORGET: Just Like Rove Drew It Up?

Before all came crashing down on the GOP, Daniel Drezner spun his theory on how the Spears/Fed-Ex break up could be the perfect October/November GOP surprise:

This is perfect timing for the GOP. She's demonstrated her love of George W. Bush in the past. Now consider the following chain of events:

• 1) Her divorce will fire up Andrew Sullivan to point out -- again -- how Britney has defiled the institution of marriage more than any gay man ever could.


• 2) This in turn fires up the conservative base over at NRO's The Corner.


• 3) In the next three hours, a outpouring of social conservatives forget the Ted Haggard follies and vote for the GOP.


• 4) At the same time, under-30 voters -- considered to be overwhelmingly Democratic -- decide not to vote in favor of surfing the web to find out how the young Ms. Spears is looking doing.


• 5) The combined effects push the Republicans to actually pick up seats in Congress and in state capitols.
  It's genius. Pure genius.

Posted by Conn Carroll at November 8, 2006 09:44 AM