November 06, 2006

11/6: Dial R For Robocall

Analysis of the latest Pew, Gallup, Mason-Dixon, and Washington Post polling dominated the blogosphere over the weekend. The only news coming out of the 'sphere are reports from mostly Talking Points Memo readers about persistent NRCC robo-calls designed to depress Dem turnout. Can the netroots push one more negative GOP story into the headlines in time?

BLOGGERS VS. BELTWAY: What Ever You Do, Don't Answer The Phone

Talking Points Memo is leading lefty blogger reporting on robocalls going to voters throughout the country including NH-02, NY-19, IL-06, IL-08, CA-04, and CT-04. the calls begin: "I'm calling with information about [fill in name of Democratic candidate]" and then "goes on to bash the Democratic candidate." TPM also reports if listeners try to hang up, they are automatically called back as many as eight times. Josh Marshall writes: "Hang-ups are the achilles heal of robo-calls. So this seems to be an attempt to cover for that weakness by making those who hang up think the Democratic candidate is basically harassing them with phone calls. The GOP wins either way.

Marshall suggests readers fight back by recording as much info on the call as possible and then calling "the 'metro desk' of your local paper. They're looking for political stories in the final days. And this is a good one. ... This is a form of election sabotage that everyone should know about -- not three weeks from now, but now, when voters are still making up their minds."

Daily Kos' Georgia10 has follows the NH AG's success in shutting down NRCC calls to NH residents on the national "Do Not Call" registry.

LANDSCAPE: Will Indies Show Up For Dems?

Pew's 11/5 poll showing Dems up 47%-43% among likely voters pierced "the protective bubble of massive, double-digit generic ballot polls" buoying netroots expectations for 11/7. MyDD's Chris Bowers, however, noted some issues with Pew's sampling: "The problem is that Pew's current turnout model suggests a 10% advancement for Republicans on 2004 ... There also is no evidence whatsoever to indicate that Democrats and Republicans have remained at parity since 2004. All evidence indicates just the opposite."

Other lefty bloggers reacted to the Pew poll by highlighting positive Dem numbers. Daily Kos' DemFromCT hoped indies turned out: "D's lead committed voters 44-35%; D's lead 44-33 with indies; leaners are divided evenly. There's still a big D lead with indies, and the question remains whether they show. if they do, there's still big numbers in there for the Democrats, and if not, we have a nailbiter." While MyDD's Jonathan Singer noted the GOP base was depressed: "However the survey ... also found that 51 percent of Democratic voters are "more enthusiastic about voting than usual" while just 42 percent of Republicans say the same. True, this margin is smaller than it was last month; nonetheless it represents a a real problem for the GOP turnout machine that is seeking to activate a still depressed base."

The Plank's Noam Scheiber found the poll "alarming" but argued that Sen. John Kerry's (D-MA) joke did damage not Dems: "Nearly 20 percent of independents told Pew that the joke raised doubts in their minds about voting Democratic ... My feeling is that a good quarter to a third of all independents are basically Republicans. And, if you'll permit me a little armchair psychologizing, I think people who call themselves independents but are almost certain to vote Republican typically look for a convenient pretext to justify their vote. My guess is that the Kerry joke has provided that pretext, even though the outcome of their vote was never really in doubt.

On the right, Captain's Quarters compares the latest Pew poll to their 10/18 numbers and argues: "GOP has rolled back the Democratic intrusion onto Republican demographics." Specifically, CQ cites: "In a month, the Democrats have lost non-minorities altogether. The gap among all whites went from +5 Democrats to +5 GOP, a ten-point swing. White females had supported Democrats by a 15-point margin and a majority (55-40), but now give the GOP a 2-point lead." CQ also looked at religous voters: "They held a thin lead (5 points) among all Protestants, but now trail by 9. Their ten-point lead among white mainline Protestants has dissipated into a tie. They lead among all Catholic, having lost three points off of an eight-point lead, but non-Hispanic Catholics now favor the GOP by 5 points, a ten-point shift."

LANDSCAPE II: Neither Side Believes These Numbers

DailyKos' founder Markos Moulitsas found Gallup's 11/6 numbers "Delicious, but too optimistic?" Kos writes: "Man, I wish these Gallup numbers were accurate, but they look nothing like any other polls at this time. Subtract 3-4 points from the Democratic candidate and it should be closer to what other pollsters peg as the state of these races. Well, except for Virginia, where you should subtract four from Allen." MyDD's Chris Bowers also doesn't believe Gallup's numbers will prevail in all of the close races: "I just think that we will lose more than one of the really close races in Tennessee, Virginia, Missouri, Montana and Maryland. With numbers like these, my final prediction will probably be a four or five seat Democratic gain--I haven't decided yet." Finally, many, including Talking Points Memo's Josh Marshall noted that Dems 51%-44% generic congressional ballot is "exactly where the congressional generic was for the Gallup poll for the Republicans in 1994."

On the right, RCP Blog's John McIntyre casts doubts on Gallups numbers showing Mason-Dixon beating Gallup badly in OH, PA, and FL in '04.

LANDSCAPE III: Just Throw Them All Together!

Pollster.com tries to sort through widely differing Senate poll numbers with "Pollster Compare" charts that allow you to compare the trend in the vote margin between the various pollsters in each race and spot the "house effects" that make one set of results consistently different across." For example in MD SEN: "the three automated polls by SurveyUSA have all shown the race virtually tied, while other polls (including the automated surveys from Rasmussen Reports) show a narrowing race, with Democrat Ben Cardin typically leading by roughly five percentage points."

Also at Pollster.com, Charles Franklin notes recent Dem "turn down" on the congressional ballot, but still pegs the current Dem advantage at "roughly +11." In a different post, Franklin argues: "the wave boosting the Democrats crested about 10 days ago. ... While forces are still a net positive to the Democrats, these forces are weaker than they were during the week before Halloween." Kausfiles links and suggests this data exonerates Sen. John Kerry (D-MA) as the tide changer: "Ten days ago was Thursday, Oct. 26.--but Kerry's comments didn't come until four days later. That means the Dems had started downhill before Kerry even opened his mouth."

LANDSCAPE IV: "Come on Home, Baby!"

Righty bloggers are almost giddy over lefty counterpart angst over "natural tightening" in the latest polling. National Review Online's John Podhoretz writes "Panic! Panic! .... This post by Noam Scheiber at the New Republic's Plank blog says it all: Liberals and Democrats in a state of terror that their victory is being snatched from them." RedState's Erick Erickson writes: "I've been on the phone with campaigns around the country this weekend and there are a lot of upbeat people who, two weeks ago, were ready to commit Hari Kari." Ankle Biting PunditsPatrick Hynes is hearing the same thing from his GOP sources: "Whereas a week ago we were looking at the possibility of losing 25 seats, we now think that number is closer to 10," a Congressional Republican insider told me."

Townhall's Hugh Hewitt promises five but only delivers four "Explanations For Democrats Feeling That [Cleveland] Browns' Fans Feeling" including: "a.) the pollsters consistently underweighted GOP turnout and are scrambling to avoid being Zogbied; b.) GOP faithful and center-right independents are unhappy with President Bush and the Congress for a number of reasons and told pollsters, but have now relented as they realize that no matter what the problem is, the answer can't be more Democrats; c.) John Kerry reminded Americans of the left's contempt for the military; and d.) The Rove-Mehlman GOTV machine is rolling out, powered by polite volunteers who understand the need to persuade not merely berate."

Also at Townhall, Mary Katharine Ham looks at downturns in Dem congressional ballot leads and writes: "Momentum Shifting? Come on Home, Baby!" Elsewhere, Ham also has a video plugging GOP.com's "Get On the Phone" program: "There are so many fun and exciting Republicans just waiting for you to call them."

LANDSCAPE V: You've Come A Long Way, Baby

Whether it's in response to the "Inevitable Tightening Of Polls" or not, the netroots are in full expectations control mode. DailyKos' DemFromCT warns: "With 48 hours left, expect a roller coaster of emotions. ... The helpful thing about this is that it puts things back in perspective. Any number of seats that allows the Dems to take the House is a win. ... If the Speaker is a Democrat, Bush and Rove have lost. ... We were never expected to take the Senate. That it is a distinct possibility is amazing. That it is in play in essentially red states is a comment on how badly the Republicans have governed."

The Washington Monthly's Kevin Drum pitches in rebutting Ann Coulter and Charles Krauthammer assertions that double digit House losses are the norm for second term presidents. Drum responds: "Nice try, guys, but here's the reality. Up through the 70s, big swings in House elections were common, but in the last 20 years there's only been a single year with a big swing (1994). Aside from that, the average change has been less than five seats. ... Thirty years ago a pickup of 25 seats wouldn't have been that big a deal. Today it is. If Dems win that many seats, it really will be a historic victory."

For many in the netroots, the fact that the election is close at all is already a major victory for them:

• DailyKos' founder Markos Moulitsas: "Remember how electing Howard Dean chair of the Democratic Party would spell the end of Democratic chances in 2006? Remember how the netroots would spell the end of Democratic chances in 2006? Remember how calling for an Iraq pullout would spell the end of Democratic chances in 2006? In a couple of days, we'll find out if those claims turned out to be true.
• MyDD's Chris Bowers: "Democrats will make noticeable gains in the House, the Senate, in Governorships, and basically everywhere else in this election. Even our worst case scenario yields progress, as well as the majority vote of the nation. Our fight has most definitely not been for nothing. And if this doesn't work well, then fine, we will try something new shortly."
• Daily Kos' Georgia10: "It's fun to watch you minimize our success. I'm not talking about Tuesday. No, I'm talking about today's success, this success of ours which has caused you to gulp and curse the day you declared us dead. We may win big on Tuesday. We may not. But today, this pulsating life in our party wasn't supposed to happen. But it's here. We're here."

Finally, Atrios promises that win or lose, the netroots will not be taking any days off after the election: "The big mistake in 2004 was that the netroots or whatever the hell we are at some point started deferring to the powers that be, and then post-election disillusionment combined with a leadership vacuum from those powers meant that things stagnated. Either way, not this time. Time to keep marching. Worry about, and try to affect, the things you have some control over right now. Wednesday morning you can figure out how to do it better.

CT SEN: The Vast Left-Wing Conspiracy In Action

MyDD's Matt Stoller is blaming cable exec Ned Lamont's (D) troubles on "the institutional establishment." Stoller writes: "It's not just the Republicans who want Joe in the Senate. It's Bill Clinton, who lied about his support of Ned. It's Chuck Schumer, who tried to keep Ned from running, and Harry Reid, who's negotiating with Joe on seniority. It's Fred Wurtheimer, who doesn't care about street money buying votes but wants to regulate blogs. It's a very big list."

The occasion for Stoller's beltway bashing is House Min. Leader Nancy Pelosi's (D-CA) refusal to criticize Sen. Joe Lieberman (I) for marching with Rep. Nancy Johnson (R-CT): "Nancy Pelosi, the head of the Congressional wing of the party, won't give Lamont the kind of backup she'd give to every other Democrat in the country, even against someone who has combined his GOTV machine with Republican Congressional candidates running against the people she's stumping for."

MT SEN: We Can't Believe This Is Just The First One Of These

TPM Cafe's Greg Sargent posts video of the Free Enterprise Fund's "Brokebank Democrats" ad attacking state Sen. Pres. Jon Tester (D) on taxes.

VA SEN: Kos' First '06 Prediction

DailyKos' founder Markos Moulitsas notes the last '05 Mason-Dixon numbers on Gov. Tim Kaine/ex-AG Jerry Kilgore showed a one point Dem lead like 11/3's Mason Dixon numbers did and then looks at Kaine's eventual margin and writes: "That's a nearly 6-point spread, or 3-5 boost over the final polls in the race. And that was against a fully-functional ground game. In Virginia, Republicans are grumbling about the neglected state of Allen's ground game. It's virtually non-existent and the NRSC didn't expect to have a competitive race. I may be overly optimistic given these numbers and trends and on-the-ground reports, but I'll project a 4-point Webb victory when I release my predictions tomorrow."

THOUGHT OF THE DAY: Somebody Doesn't Think Sasha Cohen Is God!!!

Matthew Yglesias pens the first lukewarm review of Borat we've seen:

Is it okay to be disappointed by a comedy that, at the end of the day, is genuinely very funny? Expectations for this were sky-high and even though it was good, I feel they weren't meant. This was definitely a movie worth seeing, but not a timeless comedy classic. I thought Talladega Nights's send-up of Americana was, ultimately, superior just among films released in 2006. Also, I know this is sort of part of the joke, but I'm not really sure why SBC made Borat from Kazakhstan. The country being satirized seems to be a Slavic backwater, someplace like Belarus or just rural Russia, rather than Muslim, Turkic-speaking Kazakhstan.

LEST WE FORGET: Separated At Mirth

In case you missed it, Blog P.I. posts YouTube video purporting to show Hotline editor Chuck Todd winning $5K on the price is right. BPI writes: "If you ask me, it only really looks like him for a split second - but if I'm wrong, congrats on winning the five grand. I hereby nominate this for the Friday "Separated at Birth" section of Last Call."

Posted by Conn Carroll at November 6, 2006 12:40 PM