11/3: Arizona Dreamin'

Reports of strong Dem performance in early AZ voting have lefty bloggers not just thinking upset in the Grand Canyon State, but also feeling confident nat'lly. If a gap once existed between older and younger generations on the size of this wave, it's narrowing rapidly. Only TN seems to be bucking a pro-Dem trend in lefty blogger eyes. On the right, confidence is still high, at least for the Senate, where victories in MO and TN buoy GOP hopes they'll retain the chamber.

LANDSCAPE: Not A Freak Of Nature

The DSCC's AZ Early Voters memo is inspiring the netroots to think big. After talking to to MyDD/Courage Campaign Accountability memo pollster Joel Wright, MyDD's Matt Stoller sees "dynamics here seem eerily similar to 1994." Stoller writes on "Intellectual Trends" similar to 1994: "In 2006, progressives are coming into partial control of Congress for the first time, sweeping a coastal and western majority into power that will push new environmental and economic policies. This movement is taking over from the dying embers of Clintonian-Reaganite policies built on a corrupt media machine. This movement has fresh ideas and energy."

Also on MyDD, Chris Bowers moved his Dem House seat pick up number to 21-26 which he reminds readers is more conservative that Cook (20-35+), Sabato (23-30), or Rothenberg (34-40). Bowers also sees a 35-40% chance of Dems controlling the Senate "Lieberman and any unforeseen surprises." Bowers then turns to the expectations game: "For us to have gotten even that close in a year when we have both more open seats to defend, and more overall seats to defend, is mind-blowing. I am not writing that as a sort of pre-emptive moral victory line, but simply to remind everyone how difficult taking the Senate this year was always going to be."

Daily Kos' DemFromCT also is controlling expectations: "This idea creeping in that 'if Dems don't get 30 seats in the House it's a loss' is garbage. Either Pelosi is Speaker or non-Hastert is. The rest is detail." TPM Reader DK hopes GOPers learn from their defeat: "I suspect there is going to emerge a common theme among Republicans, a declaration that the political environment was so toxic that no incumbent party could expect to emerge unscathed. ... What will be missing is any sense that the Republicans made their own bed and were forced to lay in it. The 2006 "political environment" will be treated like a weather phenomenon, something beyond our control, a freak of nature, instead of what it is: a reaction to the GOP's man-made calamity."

TPM Cafe posts two new DSCC ads attacking GOPers "On Character, Bush." TPM also reports "NRCC Dumps Over $6 Million Into House Races - Over A Third Of It In PA."

At The Huffington Post, Rolling Stone political blog author Tim Dickinson picks "10 Key Races for taking back the House." NM 01, CT 05, PA 07, OH 15, CA 04, AZ 05, NC 11, IN 08, NY 24, and MN 06 make the list. Also at HuffPo Washington Progress Alliance board member Paul Abrams promises civil disobedience "[i]f the election results are, nonetheless, a narrow Democratic victory in the House and failure for the Democrats to take control of the Senate." Abrams explains: "The day of reckoning approaches. If they again abuse our elections as they have abused our patience on so many matters, their "long train of abuses and usurpations" must be resisted. Be prepared."

LANDSCAPE II: Where's Nancy?

Running with a Drudge Report story on House Min. Leader Nancy Pelosi (D-CA) lack of high-profile appearances leading up to 11/7, many righty bloggers are posting pictures of Pelosi on the back of a milk carton. Right Angle Blog Robert Bluey reports: "Rep. Jack Kingston (R-GA) wants to know why the House Democrat leader is nowhere to be found on the campaign trail. Could it be that no one -- not even the most liberal candidates running for the U.S. House -- want Nancy Pelosi to campaign on their behalf?"

Over at The Corner, Kate O'Beirne and Rich Lowry are feeding readers takes from GOP insiders. O'Beirne's "guru" sees GOP victories in VA, MO, and MT and rejects comparisons to 1994: "when Republicans were winning most offices in 40 states, while Democrats were doing the same in 5 and the remaining 5 were tied or mixed." This year, Republicans are dominating in 21 states, Democrats in 22 with 7 tied or mixed. For example, Republicans are in trouble in PA with governor and senate race but Republicans might not lose a majority of the congressional delegation and will hold the state senate." Lowry reports that Senate internal "looked a little better than the night before. (Possible Kerry effect?)"

At RedStateErick Erickson has an interview with Rep. Roy Blunt (R-MO) on "Nancy Pelosi and the House Democrats, John Kerry's remarks, and the outlook for the GOP as we head toward Tuesday." Also at RedStateDan McLaughlin asks disgruntled conservatives to take a second look at the accomplishments of the 109th Congress.

AZ SEN: Desert Storm Brewing?

DailyKos' founder Markos Moulitsas links to reports of early Dem voting strength and argues ex-AZ Dem chair Jim Pederson's (D) late surge is due to a change in campaign rhetoric: "I have no doubt that Pederson's fortunes improved after he gave up on his "blur the differences" strategy and started running ads like this one."

CT SEN: Cool Hand Ned

The Sen. Joe Lieberman (I) slush fund story finally gained some MSM traction 11/2 when the New Haven Register ran down Lieberman campaign staff who admitted to not providing the campaign with documentation for money spent. MyDD's Matt Stoller comments: "What happened on the Lieberman campaign is both illegal and weirdly incompetent." The official Lamont Blog reported cable exec Ned Lamont (D) filed a supplemental FEC complaint incorporating the new information.

Stoller also posts from the final debate: "As is somewhat fitting, Senator Lieberman was absent, just as he's been absent from Connecticut for the past ten years, and just as he'll be absent from Connecticut for the next six if he wins. ... Lamont is a candidate in this race because the people of Connecticut put him here. Yes he put a lot of money into the race, but a lot of people support him, volunteer for him, and phone-bank every day. Lamont is a people-powered candidate who is making the case for change against a longtime skilled incumbent who has successfully muddled his position on Iraq."

Firedoglake posts a Lou Reed remix of Walk on the Wild Side who has "been a big supporter of our Blue America PAC." Daily Kos has video of Paul Newman endorsing Lamont, and TPMReader DK links to "spooky" video of "Ned Lamont as Jimmy Stewart's Mr. Smith Goes to Washington."

MD SEN: Girls Gone Annapolis!

Michelle Malkin and Townhall's Mary Katharine Ham were in Annapolis, MD for a LG Michael Steele (R) press conf. featuring "an endorsement of Steele by a number of black Maryland clergymen and women, mostly from the Baltimore area." Ham adds: "That is something of a sea change. If Steele can pull this off, and I think he can, it's a significant win for the Republican Party, and I think, for the black community of Maryland. All the speakers to take the podium conceded that being wedded to the Democratic Party had not been an effective road out of poverty for that community."

Malkin and Ham also both follow up with video from the event: Malkin at Hot Air and Ham for HamNation. National Review Online's Jim Geraghty has doubts about Baltimore Sunreports that Rep. Ben Cardin (D-03) "is outperforming Steele in Steele's backyard, Prince George's County." Geraghty responds: "Steele picks up the highest-profile endorsement in the county, if not the state, and he promptly loses 14 points? I'll give the Sun's pollsters the benefit of the doubt, but you have to ask, what would make them say, "Okay, these numbers just don't look right?"

At The Huffington PostEarl Ofari Hutchinson notes some od Steele's endorsements have "troubled some Democrats" but concludes: "Black Republicans crash against a hard political fact of life. Though blacks grouse at and bash the Democrats they overwhelmingly vote for them, and even when they don't they're more likely to stay home rather than vote Republican."

MO SEN: We're Betting Eckstein Out Polls Rush Among Cards Fans At Least

Right Angle Blog's Robert Bluey posts images of a "new ad running in newspapers across that state of Missouri features three baseball players, including the MVP of this year's World Series, opposing the pro-cloning Amendment 2. St. Louis Cardinals second baseman David Eckstein, who was named MVP of last week's World Series, is featured prominently along with teammate Jeff Suppan and Kansas City Royals first baseman Mike Sweeney.

The Corner's Rich Lowry shares confident reports from the field that if the GOP replicates '04 turnout this year, then Sen. Jim Talent (R) will prevail.

MT SEN: Confidence Is High

While reminding readers "to take everything with a grain of salt" since "[e]arly voting results and exit polling both conspired to give us big hope in 2004" DailyKos' founder Markos Moulitsas reports "Tester's camp is feeling really good about the early numbers." Markos links to Tester campaign reports that "shows Tester leading Burns 58% to 37% among Montanans who have already voted. According to the Montana Secretary of State's office, 56,453 Montanans have cast early ballots as of this morning." Markos adds: "I went hunting for the 2002 results, when Max Baucus easily defeated his Republican opponent. About 325,000 votes were cast in that non-presidential year."

PA SEN: Just The Next Stop For Casey

Atrios was pleasantly surprised by Treas. Bob Casey (D) performance at a 11/2 fundrasier: "At this point it's largely irrelevant, but I have to admit Casey surprised me quite a bit. He had a lot more charisma, and a much better ability to control a room, than I expected or I'd ever seen before. He even made a couple funnies. ... I'm still pissed at the Wise Old Democrats who pushed away more progressive candidates, thinking it was necessary in order to defeat the already-a-national-joke Santorum. But he'll probably just run for governor in 4 years anyway."

TN SEN: All In The Family

Nat'l lefty blogger optimism does not stretch into TN. MyDD's Chris Bowers writes: "Ford's campaign seems to be moving in the opposite direction, and I am expecting the undecideds in that race to break for Corker. I actually wouldn't be surprised if both Pederson and Lamont outperform Ford."

Erick Erickson has video on "the Ford family racket" at RedState.

VA SEN: Fox And Friends

Ex-Navy Sec. James Webb's (D) Netroots Coordinator and Raising Kaine founder Lowell Feld has photos and write ups from Webb stops with Michael J. Fox and retired Gen. Wes Clark in Arlington, VA and with Sen. Barack Obama (D-IL) in Richmond, VA. Also 'Lost' star Daniel Dae Kim cut a pro-Webb video.

On the right, National Review Online's Ramesh Ponnuru is accusing Webb of plagiarism. Coutnertop Chronicles offers a pro-Webb argument for gun owners and AllenHQ responds. And finally, AllenHQ helps Webb with his math on minimum wage earners in VA.

TERROR POLITICS: Bombs Away

Lefty bloggers ran with a New York Timesstory on the end of a web site set up by Pres. Bush "under pressure from congressional Republicans" that published Iraqi WMD documents. AMERICAblog writes: "Remember how the Republicans have always been trying to spend federal dollars on propaganda to convince the American public that the war in Iraq was really going well? Well, one of those projects, you may recall, was to publish tons of found Iraqi documents online so that the conservative blogosphere and conservative pundits could use the documents to bolster the pro-war effort at home. Well, in the Republicans' zeal to push their propaganda campaign against the American people they published the plans for making an atomic bomb."

National Review Online's Jim Geraghty had a slightly different take: "Wait a minute. The entire mantra of the war critics has been "no WMDs, no WMDs, no threat, no threat", for the past three years solid. Now we're being told that the Bush administration erred by making public information that could help any nation build an atomic bomb. ... But the story retains its own inherent contradiction: The information in these documents is so dangerous, that every step must be taken to ensure it doesn't end up in the wrong hands... except for topping the regime that actually has the documents."

Outside the Beltway's James Joyner suggests Geraghty is overplaying his hand: "The problem with that theory is that nobody ever argued that Saddam didn't have an advanced nuclear program before the Gulf War. The debate as to the state of Saddam's program circa the March 2003 invasion. All available evidence (of which I'm aware, anyway) would seem to indicate that it was essentially defunct. That's what the UN inspectors were telling us in late 2002."

Also in Iraq news, Andrew Sullivan tracks down the name of the soldier "abandoned" by U.S. forces "On the orders of Moqtada al-Sadr."

GORE: Baby, You Can Call Me Al

Atrios is one of a few lefty bloggers with a photo of Al Gore working the phones for MoveOn.org at a "Call for Change" cubicle.

OBAMA: Who are the Obamans?

Lefty Stirling Newberry points to a CNN WH '08 Poll in which Obama is "whacking 10% out of" HRC's support and "bits and pieces out of the third tier." HRC's "risk" and "advantage" because "Obama sucks the oxygen out of any other unHillary." But Obama also "exposes the center of Hurricane Hillary to increasing amounts of shear, and exposed storms can disintegrate."

Big Tent Democrat response to Newberry's post and "defends" Obama:

"I've been on the receiving end, in general terms, of Obama's harshness, and to be honest, Obama is not particularly nasty in my opinion. Perhaps Stirling knows things I don't know, check that, Stirling DEFINITELY knows things I don't know, but this ultra-nasty Obama is something I have not seen anyway."

MCCAIN: Breaking Sully's Heart

TPM's Matt Corley writes about McCain's catering to the conservatives with his appearence in anti-gay marriages ads in Michigan:

"John McCain appears to be as serious as ever about making nice with the conservative base. He's now starring in not one, but two ads backing Proposition 107, which would not only amend the state constitution to bar same-sex marriage of all kinds permanently, but also prohibiting cities, towns, and universities from providing benefits to unmarried domestic partners."

BLOGGERS VS. MSM: Just Like MSNBC Drew It Up

DailyKos' founder Markos Moulitsas is urging readers to participate in MSNBC's "funniest, dumbest, and meanest ads of the cycle" contest. Markos explains: "They've got some Chris Murphy (D) ad on there that they must've added for "balance" sake. Yet it's being freeped by the other side. And since the "winners" get shown on the Today Show friday, don't let the NRCC get a free last dig at our guy. We need a couple thousand votes for the Corker ad, so let's make it happen."

BLOGGERS VS. BELTWAY: Couch Campaigners

MyDD's Zack Exley explains the importance of participating in MoveOn.org's "Call for Change" program (motto: "It's too close NOT to call"). Exley writes: "This weekend, an army of more than 100,000 ordinary voters, spread across every state in the nation, will work together as single disciplined team as they conduct a sophisticated GOTV operation to reach "drop off" Democratic voters in competitive House and Senate races."

Townhall's Mary Katharine Ham promotes the GOP's "Get On the Phone" program writing: "You know what's great about modern campaigning? You don't have to leave the house to do it. Sure it's awesome and highly recommended that you do that if you have time, but if you don't, you can sit back, watch some football, and make some GOTV calls from your very own couch."

BLOGGERS VS. BELTWAY II: Gay Hookers!!!

AMERICAblog is far and away the league leader in lefty blogger coverage of the demise of National Association of Evangelicals pres. Rev. Ted Haggard. Aravosis best post links to audio of phone calls from Haggard to his gay prostitute conspiring to score meth.

In non-gay hooker scandal news, this video showing people trying to "read all the names of the corrupt Republicans in one breath" for $100 is widely posted on lefty blogs.

THOUGHT OF THE DAY: We're Al l Part Of The Vast ______ Wing Conspiracy Now

Ruminating on this week's Kerry flap Matthew Yglesias writes: "K-Lo denies that the Corner's all-misrepresenting-Kerry-all-the-time strategy is "part of any kind of coordinated response." That's just silly. In the new information age, pretty much all responses are coordinated responses. Statements and press releases get emailed around lightning quick, and it's perfectly clear on any given day what it is the Powers That Be would like me to be writing about. That doesn't mean anyone needs to take the bait -- I haven't, for example, been plugging the Allen Assault Gambit story -- but people know what's on-message and what isn't. The fact that Kerry's "insult" to the troops is not only a trivial matter, but wasn't actually an insult is immaterial; this is the distraction the GOP wants today, and it's a distraction conservative pundits are happy to provide."

LEST WE FORGET: Why Must California Get Blamed For Everything??

The Plank's Jason Zengerle is warming to Failed NFL QB, A Former College QB, A Real Estate Magnate, or A Tool of San Francisco liberals Heath Shuler after reading his interview with StopShuler.com. Zengerle excerpts:

SS: Okay, one last question. One of the things we want to do before the election is to ask the mainstream media to stop referring to you as a "former NFL quarterback." The theory being that they shouldn't, since you weren't successful at it. I mean, they don't call Michael Jordan a "former professional baseball player." So, what you would rather be described as?

A Failed NFL QB A Former college QB A Real Estate Magnate A Tool of San Francisco liberals (suggested by the Taylor campaign)

HS: [Laughs] I like that last one. Hold on, read them again, maybe we can combine them.

SS: A Failed NFL QB, A Former College QB, A Real Estate Magnate, or A Tool of San Francisco liberals.

HS: How about a "Failed former college and NFL quarterback who also failed in the west coast offense." That way we get the California thing in there, too. [Laughs]