11/28: Better Focus Group Than Pollster

Not that online straw polls had a ton of credibility, but even cursory monitoring of MyDD '08 straw polling demonstrate how susceptible such devices are to "ballot stuffing." The stuffers say their efforts show legitimate online support for their candidate. While this may be true, the efforts also destroy any ability the polls have of gauging dedicated MyDD reader interest in candidates. That's not to say that blogs offer no insight into the potential strength and weaknesses of '08 candidates. RedState's continued posts on MA Gov. Mitt Romney's record on issues from immigration to abortion can serve as a testing ground for questions he is sure to face in GOP primary debates. Pro- and anti-Romney blogger arguments over these issues ought to serve as a good preview for actual '08 debates.

DEMS: Jane Lieberman?

Netroots opposition to outgoing ranking Intel Cmt. member Jane Harman's (D-CA) for Intel Cmt. chair is growing. Glenn Greenwald's 11/27 anti-Harman brief was approvingly linked to by DailyKos' founder Markos Moulitsas and Atrios. On NSA surveillance Greenwald says Harman "was repeatedly used by the administration -- with her consent -- as a potent instrument to shield itself from scrutiny, by creating the "Responsible Democrat" (Harman, Lieberman) v. "Irresponsible Democrat" dichotomy and then arguing that they enjoyed bipartisan support from the Good, Sensible Democrats like Harman. That's why, just like Joe Lieberman, Harman's most vociferous defenders are the most extreme Bush followers and neoconservatives."

Greenwald further argues that pro-MSM Harman coverage stems from "institutionalized Beltway" fear of "a repudiation of their brand of Serious Washington Centrism -- the disease which enabled the Bush administration and brought us this war." Atrios and Kos quote Greenwald:

There is nothing "credible" about Harman. Yes, she is smart and knowledgeable, but she has been wrong about everything that matters, particularly in the intelligence area. But she was wrong in exactly the same way that the Beltway geniuses and The New Republic and David Broder and Fred Hiatt were wrong. For that reason, they don't want her to be repudiated and rejected because that would constitute a repudiation and rejection of them. So they build up and glorify the "credible," responsible Harman because she represents them, and they hate Pelosi in advance for rejecting Harman for being wrong about everything because they feel rejected by that choice.

Less activist lefty bloggers thought less of Greenwald's thesis. Talking Points Memo's Josh Marshall writes: "If this were only about Iraq, I might agree. But it's not. You cannot ignore the fact that the two people who opposed Hoyer and Harman were two people surrounded by ethical clouds just after the Democrats won an historic election in which congressional corruption was one of the two main issues." The Washington Monthly's Kevin Drum adds: "There's also seems to be more than a whiff of retribution here against any Democrat who supported the war resolution, and that strikes me as pretty counterproductive. After all, nearly half the Democratic caucus supported the resolution, and we really don't want to declare every one of these folks persona non grata on all issues related to national security.

Marshall goes on to endorse Rep. Rush Holt (D-NJ) for Intel chair joining Matthew Yglesias, David Corn, and Joe Conason. Drum isn't sold though:

Holt is a good guy, and his reasons for opposing the war resolution showed good judgment. He'd probably do fine as chair of the Intelligence Committee. ... However, if Holt made any firm statements questioning the existence of Iraq's WMD programs back in 2002, I haven't been able to find them. He appears to have believed Iraq had an active WMD program as much as anyone, which shouldn't be a surprise since this belief was shared at the time by virtually every intelligence agency in the world, including the CIA. (Yes, the Bush administration exaggerated the CIA's finding, but the CIA did clearly report their belief that Iraqi WMD programs were active and dangerous.)

TPMmuckraker has collected a "Harman: In Her Own Words" page with quotes in Iraq and NSA issues. Meanwhile, Kos looks at Roll Call's 11/27 story on Dem reluctance to let Lieberman aide Marshall Wittman sit in on weekly press secretary meetings and writes: "But that's the bargain they made with Lieberman. Now Senate Dems will act surprised? We can't say we didn't warn them. Two more years. Once the Dems increase their Senate advantage, they can put Lieberman out to pasture in the backbench. In the meantime, it doesn't seem like it would be too hard to freeze Wittmann out."

'08 FIELD: "People Really Don't Like John Kerry"

Plenty of blogger reax to Quinnipiac's latest National Thermometer poll. '08er results include (the poll measures "warmth" of feeling to pols with percentage not knowing enough about the individual to rate him or her in parenthesis:

Rudolph Giuliani - 64.2. (9) Sen. Barack Obama 58.8 (41) Sen. John McCain 57.7 (12) Condoleezza Rice - 56.1 (7) John Edwards - 49.9 (20) Sen. Hillary Clinton - 49 (1) N.M. Gov. Bill Richardson - 47.7 (65) Sen. Joseph Biden 47 (52) Gov. Mitt Romney - 45.9 (64) Former VP Al Gore - 44.9 (3) Sen. Evan Bayh - 43.3 (75) Newt Gingrich - 42 (15) Sen. John Kerry - 39.6 (5)

MyDD's Chris Bowers remarks: "What this tells me is that we have a lot of work to do on Giuliani and McCain in the coming months. The Democratic Party may be flying high right now, but the successful work the Republican Noise Machine has done against our leaders continues to sting us." Bloggers noticed Sen. John Kerry's (D-MA) weak numbers. The Plank's Michael Crowley: "Hard to see how John Kerry runs for president again. I honestly feel bad for the guy. Maybe he can hunker down and find a second act, like Ted Kennedy after his presidential ambitions died, as a productive and venerated senator. AMERICAblog: "People really don't like John Kerry"

DEM FIELD: Gotta Wake Up Pretty Early In The Morning To Beat Bayh

Attempting to avoid straw poll ballot stuffing, MyDD's Chris Bowers held a "instant runoff" straw poll from 2 AM to 9 AM. He should have ended the voting sooner. The instant runoff feature allows voters to redirect their votes after their favorite candidate has been eliminated. At 6 AM a four way Dem race looked like this:

Al Gore 138 (41.6%)
Barack Obama 73 (22.0%)
John Edwards 70 (21.1%)
Wes Clark 51 (15.4%)

By 9 AM those results had changed significantly:

Al Gore 457 (36.8%)
John Edwards 406 (32.7%)
Barack Obama 222 (17.9%)
Evan Bayh 156 (12.6%)

In the 6 AM sample, Clark voters split for Edwards, putting him above Obama in a three way:

Al Gore 364 (28.8%)
John Edwards 301 (23.8%)
Barack Obama 179 (14.2%)

In the 9 AM sample, Bayh voters split mostly for Obama, but not enough for him to close his gap on Edwards.

Al Gore 162 (49.2%)
Barack Obama 78 (23.7%)
John Edwards 89 (27.1%)

BIDEN: Maybe He Should Blame Canada

Sen. Joe Biden (D-DE) failed to make inroads into lefty blogging communities with his 11/27 "get tough with Mexico" rhetoric. AMERICAblog writes: "Jumping on the "blame Mexico for everything" doesn't strike me as a winning approach but if that gets him out of the race faster, so be it. ... If Biden wants to talk about great disparities of wealth maybe he can take a drive around DC and tell us about the differences between the northwest and the northeast. What a goof. Who is actually supporting his presidential run?"

BROWNBACK: Uncommon Conversions

National Review Online's Larry Kudlow hopes Sen. Sam Brownback (R-KS) enters the '08 race: "Sam Brownback is an economic, fiscal and social conservative who has strongly backed human rights and democratization in the Middle East. He is an uncommonly moral person, who can make an uncommonly good contribution to the uncommonly sagging post-election Republican fortunes."

Fellow CorneriteKathryn Jean Lopez let a full three minutes go by before responding: "The Kansas senator says he wants to be the "full-scale conservative " in the presidential race. The newly Catholic senator might have a hard time hitting Governor Romney on public conversions."

ROMNEY: McCain Lite?

RedState's Leon Wolf tracked the Corner's Romney/Brownback exchange and takes up Lopez' "public conversion" defense of Romney: "Romney's problem, in this case, is not that he's had a public conversion on the life issue. ... The problem for Romney is that this is, in fact, at least his second public conversion on the abortion issue. You see, the problem with Romney is not merely that he claimed to be pro-choice during his 1994 campaign against Senator Kennedy, and during his 2002 gubernatorial campaign, it is that he at that time claimed to have had a public conversion to the pro-choice position because at that time he was speaking to (primarily) Democratic voters who were wary of his pro-choice creds."

RedState's Erick Erickson also takes a hand at tarnishing Romney's conservative credentials noting Romney coyness on immigration reform and comparing him to Sen. John McCain (R-AZ): "Several of us here have believed that the Republican nominee for President is going to be an outsider willing to criticize President Bush from the right. Romney has a better chance of doing that than John McCain. The problem is, at the substantive level, both Governor Romney and John McCain have thus far echoed similar positions on a host of issues from immigration to the war."

Meanwhile, Andrew Sullivan kicks off "Mormon Week on the Dish!" with two South Park videos on the Mormon faith. Later Sullivan adds: "It's Official. I've now had more emails about Mormon underwear than gay marriage."

MCCAIN: "The Fastest Flip-Flop in the West"

The Right Angle's Amanda Carpenter reports the following This Week exchange between George Stephanopoulus and Sen. John McCain (R-AZ) was sent to her with the title "The Fastest Flip-Flop in the West"

MR. STEPHANOPOULOS:

You voted for an initiative in Arizona that went beyond that and actually denied any government benefits to civil unions or domestic partnerships. Are you against civil unions for gay couples?

SEN. MCCAIN:No, I am not.

I -- but the -- that initiative I think was misinterpreted. I think that initiative did allow for people to join in legal agreements such as power of attorney and others. I think there was a-- I think that there was a difference of opinion on the interpretation of
that constitutional amendment in Arizona.

MR. STEPHANOPOULOS: So you're for civil unions?

SEN. MCCAIN:No,

I am for ability of two people -- I do not believe gay marriage should be legal. I do not believe gay marriage should be legal. But I do believe that people ought to be able to enter into contracts, exchange powers of attorney, other ways that people have relationships can enter into.

'08 ROUNDUP: Don't Stop Campaigning Against Emmanuel

MyDD's Jonathan Singer notes 74 year old Sen. Pete Domenici (R-NM) only has "about" $264K COH and reports Albuquerque Mayor Martin Chavez is strongly considering a run. Also at MyDD, Chris Bowers urges netrooters not to forget deep blue districts when choosing primary targets in '08. Bowers reminds readers: "just remember that in 2002, Rahm Emmanuel narrowly defeated a grassroots candidate in his ultra-blue open seat."

On the right, The Right Angle's John Gizzi identifies three recruitment targets for GOPers looking to take bake seats in NY: state Ag Cmr Patrick Brennan in NY-24, ex-state Sen. John Faso in NY-20, and ex-Pres. Bush press sec. Ari Fleischer in NY-19.

Looking backwards Not Al Groh at Not Larry Sabato argues the Sen.-elect James Webb (D)/outgoing-Sen. George Allen (R) race is best understood by comparing it to the 2005 VA LG between Bill Bolling (R) and Leslie Byrneand (D) concludes: "Going forward; the Dems cannot count on a "Macaca" comment from every GOP statewide office seeker in the future, nor can they expect to consistently get candidates who have the same military credentials as Webb. To a lesser extent, it also proves NOVA isn't big enough yet to single-handedly control state politics. Only campaigning in NOVA will not deliver a victory unless you have other benefits going for you (a mistake by your opponent, ability to make inroads in a group of voters, bad GOP environment, etc). Even with all the other factors, had Allen been able to stay even with Bolling in the 3rd CD; he would still be a Senator."

IRAQ: Homecomings And Accountability

Rep. Lynn Woolsey (D_CA) addressed Daily Kos readers 11/27:

Americans did not give my party a mandate simply to "work with the President," or to wait for cues from a blue-ribbon committee. ...The message is clear - the American public has directed the Democratic Party to be bold, to change course on Iraq, with the main goal of bringing our troops home. ... Congress has the power to end this occupation. We must stand up to our responsibility and bring every pressure to bear on this Administration. We must use every lever and pursue any avenue to hold them accountable for their immeasurable failures in Iraq. This isn't just another priority for the new Congress. According to the voters who have elected us, this is the 110th Congress' most solemn duty.

Eric Altermann wants to hold more than just the administration accountable for Iraq: "It's becoming clearer every day that the U.S. invasion and occupation of Iraq is the worst catastrophe ever voluntarily undertaken by this nation, including Vietnam ... How about every pundit who got on board with Bush and Co. to create this hell on Earth that is now engulfing Iraq explain to us why they were so wrong and what they've learned from their mistake? And if they're not willing to admit how wrong they were and explain how they have since amended their ways, why in the world should anyone listen to anything they say in the future? How many Iraqs can we -- and the rest of the world -- afford?

IRAQ II: It's Hell In A Landslide

Many bloggers leapt on findings by Flopping Aces'Curt that a story of six Sunni civilian's being burned alive was possibly made up. Power Line's John Hinderaker explains: "The only official source for the account, however, was "Police Capt. Jammil Hussein." CENTCOM initially said that it had not been able to confirm the account of the burned-alive Sunnis. Upon further investigation, it appears that the incident probably never occurred at all. In addition, "Police Capt. Jamil Hussein" appears to be non-existent." Townhall's Mary Katharine Ham adds: "Bush and conservative supporters of the war in Iraq are often accused of not facing up to the reality on the ground, attempting to paint a rosier picture than that which exists, maintaining blindspots for sectarian violence, and outright lying about conditions in-country. But is it any wonder that we wonder whether the all-bad, all-the-time story we're getting out of Iraq is completely trustworthy?

RedState currently has a poll up gauging readers preference for certain Iraq courses of action. Results include:

Cut and Run 11% (43 votes) S-U-M-M-I-T 3% (12 votes) Stay the Course 10% (38 votes) Can we unleash hell yet? 59% (219 votes) Redeploy to the country of Kurdistan (which we create by fiat) and wait six months. 17% (62 votes)

THOUGHT OF THE DAY: School's Out For Never

Matthew Yglesias argues The Hamilton Project may actually be on to something when with the creation of Summer Opportunity Scholarships to finance summer school or other summer enrichment programs for poorer children at risk of falling behind over the summer. Ygelsias writes: "On another level, of course, it would make sense to revisit our national commitment to very long summer vacations, a policy which as best I can tell is grounded in the belief that kids' labor is needed on the farm during those months. Budget constraints are obviously backing up blind adherence to tradition here, and I really loved my time at Camp Winnebago, but along with being dubious education policy this has to be a huge pain-in-the-ass to single parents and dual-income families, especially those of modest means."

LEST WE FORGET: World's Biggest Doctor's Note Not Included

National Review Online's Jonah Goldberg links to reports of pot activist plans "to build biggest doobie." The Physorg.com article explains that Los Angeles resident Brett Stone plans to build a three-foot joint using 112 grams of dope. The article continues: "Stone said he would be careful to ensure that his record attempt would remain legal, indicating that the joint would be smoked in a local medical marijuana collective. "We're probably going to do it as a fund raiser," he said. "And the mayor and police chief would be most welcome if they have a doctor's note to consume cannabis."