November 10, 2006
11/10: Victory Breeds Ambivalence?
The contrast between blogger reaction to their respective parties' cong. leadership races says more about human reaction to winning and losing than it does about contrast in styles between the left and right. DailyKos' founder Markos Moulitsas and MyDD's contributors are taking a hands-off approach to the House maj. leader race (although it is quite clear their readership is heavily pro-Rep. John Murtha (D-PA). Righty bloggers, on the other hand (with RedState in the lead) can't tell everybody often enough how strongly they endorse Rep. Mike Pence (R-IN) for min. leader and Rep. John Shadegg (R-AZ) for whip. Will the netroots' ambivalence continue when the Senate starts handing out cmte chairs?
DEM LEADERSHIP: My Name's Paul, And This Is Between Y'all
The netroots' heavy hitters are being noticeably coy about the maj. leader race between Reps. Steny Hoyer (D-MD) and John Murtha (D-PA). DailyKos' founder Markos Moulitsas tells readers he is "going to take a close look at both candidacies, and all of us should do the same." MyDD's Chris Bowers is "open-minded about this race." Kos does ad though: "One thing to note -- Hoyer has clashed repeatedly with Pelosi the past few years. Murtha is a Pelosi loyalist. I don't feel like dealing with years of "divided Democrats" stories because a Majority Leader Hoyer is constantly undercutting Speaker Pelosi."
Daily Kos and MyDD readers were distinctly less undecided. A Daily Kos poll had Murtha up 83%-16%, and Murtha also led at MyDD's poll 69%-14%.
GOP LEADERSHIP: We Get It, They Want The New Guys
In stark contrast to their lefty brethren, RedState wants to make it extra crispy clear that they endorse Reps. Mike Pence (R-IN) and John Shadegg (R-AZ) in their respective races for minority leader and whip: "Today we would like to make it explicitly clear and reiterate that while we respect Representatives Blunt, Boehnor, and Cantor, we believe a fresh start is in order. We also believe there is no better place to turn than the Guardians of the Reagan Legacy and the 1994 Conservative Revolution."
RedState's Erick Erickson also explains how one has "to feel sorry for John Boehner to some degree" and later pleads with Rep. Joe Barton (R-TX) not to enter the whip race.
Pence and Shadegg's blog support is not confined to RedState. Townhall's Mary Katharine Ham passes along this evaluation of Blunt's 11/9 performance at the Heritage Foundation: "He stated that the elimination of earmarks would do "nothing but shift funding decisions from one side of Pennsylvania Ave. to the other." This is the platform espoused by appropriators: the money's going to be spent anyway, so we might as well get our share. This is the same attitude that led many to think that there was nothing wrong with spending hundreds of millions of dollars on a Bridge to Nowhere." Ham later concludes on both races: "I think when faced with a choice between the current Republican leadership and fresh leadership that passionately backs 99.9 percent of my issues but gives me pause on one, I'll go with the new guy."
Right Angle Blog's Robert Bluey notes "just hours after frowning on the idea of Rep. Mike Pence (R-IN) for min. leader, John Hawkins at Right Wing News has changed his mind." The difference for Hawkins: "I have gotten confirmation from a highly trusted source inside Tom Tancredo's office that Tancredo will be endorsing Pence. Since, in my book, Tom Tancredo is the gold standard on illegal immigration, that turns me around 180 degrees."
Without picking sides National Review Online's Rich Lowry handicap the races: "I haven't been checking around on it much today, but just casual conversations with people following it still seem to suggest Boehner might be OK, Blunt is in trouble."
DEM FIELD: Bayh-ers' Remorse
Sen. Evan Bayh's (D-IN) already shaky netroots reputation is falling. MyDD's Chris Bowers posted a '08 straw poll that did not include Bayh as an option and Bowers became annoyed when he found "poll stuffing" going on in Bayh's favor: "I can't imagine this will help his image in the netroots much either. Here is a hint to poll sutffers--the key to poll stuffing is dong it in a way that no one would notice it is poll stuffing."
Before Bowers pulled the plug on the voting here are the initial and final round results:
Initial John Edwards 1,237 (22.9%) Barack Obama 1,219 (22.6%) Russ Feingold 1,032 (19.1%) Wesley Clark 970 (18.0%) Hillary Clinton 247 (4.6%) None of these 755Final
John Edwards 2,475 (50.6%)
Barack Obama 2,412 (49.4%)
None of these 1,265
CLINTON: We Thought This Was Spitzer's Fault?
MyDD's Matt Stoller notes NY Dems only picked up three House seats and one state Senate seat "in one of the blueish states in the country" and blames "Hillary Clinton's Coattail Problem." Stoller concludes: "Hillary Clinton may win the nomination, and she may be able to win the White House. Or she may decide not to run for President, and become a wonky technocratic Senator. But regardless of what happens, don't expect her to bring anyone into office with her. That's not how the Clinton's work."
GOP FIELD: Allen Officially Out Of This Poll
GOP Bloggers is up with their Nov. straw poll. Currently righty blog reader voting breaks down as follows
Candidate Votes %
Gingrich 1020 24%
Giuliani 927 21.8%
Romney 798 18.7%
McCain 287 6.7%
Tancredo 282 6.6%
Hagel 128 3%
Brownback 102 2.4%
Huckabee 86 2%
Hunter 84 2%
Frist 53 1.2%
Pataki 26 0.6%
IA's Caucus Cooler has names winners and losers from 11/7. Winners include:
- Rudy Giuliani- With an ugly environment, Rudy looks like a real uniter that can take the Party and the Country out of this funk and into the future
- John McCain- Like Giuliani, McCain seems like the kind of candidate that can bridge the gap with the independents that have become disenfranchised from the GOP.
Losers:
- Mitt Romney- In a year where the GOP lost anything, Mitt certainly is not to blame for the 6 Governorships the GOP lost and the "0" pickups. But it certainly didn't help him either.
- Mike Huckabee- If your successor can't even muster a competitive race in a Red state, that's not a very good legacy to leave.
MCCAIN: Wither The Chafee Brand
RedState's Streiff posts a photo of "John McCain accepting the "Chafee Award" (really people I could not make this crap up because I try to make up stuff that is believable) from the Republican Main Street Partnership." He adds: "Senator McCain has positioned himself as the presumptive frontrunner for the Republican presidential nomination in 2008 and his supporters regularly tout his conservative credentials. But this is a latest in a series of actions that calls those credentials into question."
'08 SENATE LANDSCAPE: Permanent Realignment?
DailyKos' founder Markos Moulitsas sees good things ahead for Dems in the Senate: "If all goes well, we should be lining up for an absolute slaughter of the GOP. In two years, Republicans will be defending 21 seats, to 12 of our own. A large number of those Republicans will be freshmen." Kos' top Dem pickups include: CO, KY, MN, NH, NM, OR, TN, and VA. His second tier consists of: MS, NE, and OK.
BLOGGERS VS. BELTWAY: Better Ned Than Red?
TAPPED's Charles Pierce adds his thoughts on the "Rahm-v.-netroots" debate arguing that Sam Rosenfeld "makes a critical mistake by minimizing the fact that the DCCC's support in many cases came, as he put it, "relatively late." That, it seems to me, is understating what actually happened." Pierce concludes: "And, it should be noted that a lot of the problem is that an awful lot of people in Washington really don't like Rahm Emanuel, who has a reputation as a supercilious gombeen that is remarkable even by the standards set by employees of the first Clinton Administration, which are considerable."
At TPM CafeGreg Sargent argues that 11/7 vindicated those "who backed Ned Lamont's antiwar candidacy" since the campaign encouraged Dems to engage and win foreign policy arguments instead of shying away from them. DailyKos' founder Markos Moulitsas is in total agreement and claims Dems the episode shows "the DLC has lost just about all influence in DC." Kos explains the reason behind the DLC's fall: "It's because they have no natural constituency other than their corporate masters. It's because they were so wrong about everything and everyone knew it. And it's because this election, above all else, has exposed their utter lack of understanding of the nation's pulse."
Later Kos pens a love letter to MSMers critical of netroots support for Lamont: "Dear know-nothings, I know most of you are stupid, and proud to remain that way. But the Netroots backed more than just Ned Lamont. For example, Jim Webb and Jon Tester in the Senate, and dozens more in the House. Jim Webb, for example, said this about the netroots: "The netroots have been a tremendous help to my campaign and a huge inspiration to me personally. I am where I am in large part because of their support." So Lieberman won. Lots of our candidates lost. Lots of them won. It's called elections. Hugs and kisses."
On the right, RCP Blog's Tom Bevan notes netroots supported "fighting Dems" faced a mix fate 11/7 but concludes: "There is one exception. I think you could make a persuasive argument that Jim Webb's status as a decorated war veteran made just enough of a difference in Virginia to prove decisive. ... So, to sum up: the "Fightin' Dem" strategy proved not to matter almost every single instance on Tuesday, except in the one case where it did. And what a momentous case it ended up being."
Also on the right, RedState's Dan McLaughlin notes that with Sen. James Webb's (D-VA) victory control of the Senate rests in the hands of Sen. Joe Lieberman (I-CT) and asks his lefty counterparts: "But of course, you have Power! You have Influence! You can Make Your Voices Heard! So I ask you: Do you support welcoming Rape Gurney Joe back into your party with open arms? Are you willing to stand up and say: that man is one of us? And if not, what are you gonna do about it?
BLOGGERS VS. BLOGGERS: Water-Carrying Season Is Over!
Righty bloggers continue to stress that "conservatism did not lose" 11/7. RedState's Erick Erickson links to Tim Chapman's analysis that: "conservatives were least likely to fall victim to the wave, while moderate to liberal Republicans had a tough go at it." RedState's directors later add:
Yesterday, Rush Limbaugh said he felt liberated because he was "no longer going to have to carry the water for people who [he doesn't] think deserve having their water carried." ... Yes, it is liberating now. We don't have to worry that something we'll say will negatively impact turnout of the base in the midterms. That's just life. As We've said on the front page before, "Suck it up." We're conservatives first, but in the general election, we're on the Republican team. ... RedState is unique from other blogs on the internet simply because we're not as "bloggy." We occasionally lose perspective and focus on the blogosphere and blog wars and things like that. But, we never forget that RedState is here as an internet home for the conservative grassroots. We remain committed to being conservative first and Republican second.
Ankle Biting PunditsPatrick Hynes (a Sen. John McCain (R-AZ) advisor), however, argues fellow right bloggers ought to read 11/7's results more carefully before concluding that abandonment of "core conservative values" was really the cause of defeat:
The emotional me wants to cheer for some of this rhetoric-well ... Here's the problem: There was no "base revolt." ... There was no suppression of the Republican vote. Republicans made up almost the exact percentage of the electorate in 2006 (36%) that they made up in 2004 (37%). There was no suppression of the self-identified conservative vote. Conservatives comprised only a slightly lower percentage of the vote in 2006 (32%) than they did in 2004 (34%). ... Nevertheless, something very bad happened with this last coupling of groups. Independents supported John Kerry over George W. Bush by the razor thin margin of 49% to 48%. This year, Independents split their votes in favor of Democrats over Republicans by 57% to 39%. That is among the most significant swings of any subgroup of voters represented in the exit polls."
The Plank's Bradford Plumer also throws water on prospects of congressional GOP return to small government principles: "The two dominant themes in Republican ads, meanwhile, were taxes and--of all things--pork. In Ohio, Deborah Pryce, an incumbent Republican, cut ad after ad near the end of her campaign emphasizing all of the great pork projects she had brought home to her district. ... I wonder if this was true for other races--if it was, then I'd assume that congressional Republicans won't be too sympathetic to the argument, floated by many a conservative these days, that the GOP lost mainly because of its addiction to pork and discretionary spending."
LANDSCAPE: Apparently, The GOP Isn't Popular These Days
On the left The Washington Monthly's Kevin Drum Looks at 11/7 exit poll data and declares: "Anyone planning to make any grand pronouncements about the "lesson" of the election really ought to spend a few minutes comparing the 2006 exit poll data to the 2004 exit poll data first. It turns out that the big lesson is that there's no big lesson. ... And what you find from the exit polls is that Dems gained 2-7 points in practically every demographic group surveyed. ... Based on the exit poll data, it was just a broad-based wave of disgust against Republican rule."
On the right, Outside the Beltway echoes Drum's conclusions but adds: "I think he undersells things more than a bit, though, when he says, "I suppose the higher totals among Latinos and independents are the big news." Given that Hispanics are easily the fastest growing cohort nationwide and in several key states, a 14% shift should definitely spark interest among Republicans. The party will need to figure out a way ahead on immigration that simultaneously addresses the legitimate concerns of conservatives on border security, fairness, and enforcement of our laws while not coming across as "anti-immigration" and hostile to Hispanics. To say the least, that's not going to be an easy task."
THOUGHT OF THE DAY: The Hotline Welcomes Our New Blogger Overlords
Comedy Central Insider was the first "news" source to break Sec. Def. Donald Rumsfeld's demise. At 12:15 AM 11/8 CCI'c "Token Conservative" Michael Brendan Dougherty reported:
The buzz I'm hearing from a friend, and a totally unconfirmed White House source (remember Comedy Central doesn't have journalistic standards), is that Rumsfeld will be out of the administration tomorrow. This is a shocker even to the totally unnamed source in the White House. Already, we are seeing reports of a White House Press conference scheduled for tomorrow at 1 p.m. Could this be it?
CCI added: "Suck it, Drudge!"
LEST WE FORGET: What? No "Shotgunning Beer" Entry?
Before Wikipedia's standards police scrub the entry, be sure to check out a detailed guide to "Calling shotgun" including these three different rules of calling shotgun, "only one rule is in effect at a given time."
- Shotgun may be called as soon as a driver has been established and the passengers are outside. This is the most common method for calling shotgun. "As soon as you see a cloud or a star, shotgun decides where you sit in the car."
- Shotgun may be called as soon as a driver is established and the car of choice is in view of the passengers. "As soon as the car's in your line of vision, you may make the shotgun decision."
- Shotgun may be called by any passenger as soon as a driver has been established, regardless of where they are (inside or outside). "No matter where you are, either morning, noon, or night; shotgun gives you the front seat right."
Wiki also clears up one misconception: "Some people misunderstand the idea behind calling out "shotgun", thinking that it is a transitive verb used to claim something as yours before anyone else does (such as "dibs" or "bags"). Hence the redundantly incorrect usage: "I shotgun the front seat!". Once understood this way, it is then used incorrectly in other contexts, such as "I shotgun the last piece of cake!"
Posted by Conn Carroll at November 10, 2006 12:15 PM
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