October 31, 2006

Blogometer Update

HOUSE LANDSCAPE: What The FEC?

  Reader DK at Talking Points Memo says it's "always interesting poking through the [Federal Election Commission]'s independent expenditure reports filed late on Fridays."

That's because the Republicans have spent $7 million in "places you don't expect to see the GOP having to marshal its resources," writes DK.

  He cites Western races in Colorado's 5th, Nevada's 2nd ("say a little prayer for Chrissy Mazzeo the cocktail waitress who has accused Jim Gibbons ... of propositioning/accosting her") and 3rd, Nebraska's 3rd, and Wyoming's At Large seat as being prime cash dump zones for the Republicans.  In Nevada's 3rd District alone, the NRCC "has just put almost $400,000" into the race to ward off Dem challenger Tessa Hafen.

CT 04: Shaysus H. Chris!

  The Democratic Party must've finally gotten wind that all is not Right in GOP incumbent Rep. Christopher Shays' troubled re-election run.

  Greg Sargent at TPMCafe writes:

For days now there's been some buzz to the effect that national Dems are preparing to pump a huge amount of cash into the deadlocked contest between GOP Rep. Chris Shays and Dem challenger Diane Farrell.  Well, the money's finally arrived: Yesterday the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee dropped $1,025,989.50 into the race for an ad buy targeting Shays going into this thrilling contest's final days.

FL 16: Not Foleying Anybody

  Tom Bevan at Real Clear Politics fills us in on a "bit of good news" for Republicans in the 16th.  Joe Negron, the GOP's fill-in for resigned Rep. Mark Foley, gets a break in his last-minute emergency campaign.

  Bevan quotes a blog's report that a District Court has ruled that "signs can go up sayign a vote for Foley is a vote for Negron, if they also say a vote for [Dem challenger Tim Mahoney] is a vote for Mahoney."  Democrats "will not appeal the ruling."

  "Florida-16 is currently ranked #3 on RCP's list of the 50 Most Competitive House seats in 2006," writes Bevan.  "This is unquestionably a boost for the GOP, though it's hard to quantify just how much it may improve their chances of holding the seat."

ID 01: Who's Buried In Grant's Tomb?

  According to a recent poll, GOPer Bill Sali has a slight lead over Dem Larry Grant for the open 1st.  That's music to the ears of Jonathan Singer at MyDD, or it would be if Singer wasn't such a pessimist this go-round, or less significantly more optimistic, or something:

  I'm ... not going to get my hopes up too high in the assumption that this polling indicates that the Democrats are within a couple points of winning rather than within a couple points of catching their Republican adversaries with a significant portion of the electorate still undecided.  In 2004, for example, I truly believed that Democrat Brad Carson had a great chance in the Oklahoma Senate race, with polling showing him either up by a couple points or down by a couple points but in the low 40s, only to see Republican Tom Coburn virtually walk to a 53 percent to 41 percent victory.

  Nonetheless, the political climate in the country -- and even in Idaho -- is decidedly different than it was in 2004, and the late-breaking trends are not moving towards the GOP like they were just two years ago.  That could change, particularly as a result of the politically-motivated decision to announce the verdict in the Saddam Hussein trial a week from today.

  But even keeping that in account, I'm significantly less pessimistic about Democrats' chances in states like Idaho than I was just weeks ago.  And if this movement keeps up, folks inside the beltway will be shocked to see races break towards the Democrats that they never even thought possible.

IL 14: Hastert-Been

  "Do you think Denny Hastert really wants to keep his job as House speaker?"  What prompts the remark is that Hastert has posted "his first blog -- ever" over at Redstate, as Ivy J. Sellers reports at Human Events' The Right Angle.  Among some of Hastert's literary gems:

  In short, Democrats do not believe in the Global War on Terror.  I don't mean that they don't support it, though they don't.  What I mean is Democrats don't believe the war actually exists.

  While Republicans believe the biggest threat to American freedom and security is the evil ideology that planned and executed the murder of 3,000 of our countrymen five years ago, and continues planning today, Democrats think the biggest threat to America is... Republicans.

  Rightys not only don't seem to be that impressed, some are downright disappointed; nay, disillusioned.  To wit, Jon Fleischman of FlashReport, commenting at Hastert's blog:

  With all due respect to the Speaker, under his watch, Republicans have presided over vast increases in spending, enlarging the size and scope of the federal government to record levels.

  It's a real problem.  Just using myself as an example. I am a former Executive Director of the California Republican Party, have worked on GOP campaigns and causes for two decades, and when I see a post from the Speaker, I get irate.

  The War on Terror is very important.  But to me, the House GOP Leadership right now stands for growth in government.  It's hard for me to just 'put that aside' -- so maybe someone can give me advice on how to do that.

  Winning the War on Terror abroad and winning the war for liberty at home are both important.  Find me a spokesperson who is good on BOTH, please.

IA 03: Dave's Not Here, Man

  "This is funny," writes Tom Bevan at Real Clear Politics.  "President Bush went all the way to Iowa today to help Republican Jeff Lamberti in his race to upset Leonard Boswell in IA-3."  The President said, according to the White House transcript:

  This campaign only ends after the voters have had a chance to speak.  No doubt in my mind, with your help, Dave Lamberti will be the next United States congressman.

  "Oops," says Bevan.  Bush actually said it twice before correcting himself.  "[W]ith the amount of campaigning the President does, I'm surprised we don't see this sort of thing happen more often."

  Bevan now ponders the potential bungle factor of Bush's next stop, where he'll be in Texas trying to pronounce the name of the 22nd District's GOP candidate, Shelley Sekula-Gibbs.

NE 03: Yo, Adrian!

  John Aravosis at AMERICAblog says "Republicans are growing increasingly worried about our boy, Scott Kleeb" in Nebraska's 3rd District, which has been owned by the GOP for 48 years.  Seems Mr. Kleeb, with the help and attention of AMERICAblog's army of contributors, is presenting a bit of a threat to Republican nominee Adrian Smith in this formerly safe GOP district, being vacated by the retiring Tom Osborne.

  Aravosis would like more help for Kleeb.  As he says, "I've met him, he's good."  And that's that.

WY AL: Smoking A Cubin

  The "Slap" Heard 'Round the Rockies continues to resonate in the Mountain West, and Dems are taking advantage of it.  You may have heard that incumbent GOP Rep. Barbara Cubin threatened to smack Libertarian challenger Thomas Rankin for daring to highlight her ties to disgraced GOP lobbyist Jack Abramoff and outcast Republican Rep. Tom DeLay, a charge she didn't exactly deny. 

  georgia10 at Daily Kos reports that a new post-"slap" poll has shown Democrat Gary Trauner in a "statistical dead heat" with Cubin, amazing when you consider that "President Bush carried Wyoming in 2004 by an overwhelming margin (69%-29%).  It's gotten choppy enough for Wyoming Republicans that the Veep himself, Dick Cheney, will be making a stop this week to "help remedy the situation."

  Big Dick has his work cut out for him, as Cubin continues to flail about wildly, with her latest boner [reported by Markos Moulitsas at Daily Kos] being this: she blames her threat to Rankin on Viagra-enhanced Rush Limbaugh!  From the Billings Gazette:

She later apologized, saying she may have been influenced by listening to too much Rush Limbaugh.  Last week, Limbaugh said he would slap actor and Parkinson's disease sufferer Michael J. Fox, "if you'd just quit bobbing your head."

  As for Trauner, he benefits from Cubin's gaffes and should be heartened by cutting new ads like this one.

Posted by Conn Carroll at October 31, 2006 03:14 PM