October 12, 2006

Blogometer Extra: House Edition

CO 04: Wavy Musgravy

  Ten days ago, jesselee at the DCCC's Stakeholder crowed that incumbent GOP Rep. Marilyn Musgrave was "in trouble" and quoted a poll showing Musgrave and Dem challenger Angie Paccione "dead even."

  Fast forward 5 days: Erick Kleefeld at TPMCafe wonders if Musgrave is "suddenly vulnerable."  He quotes "both independent and partisan Democratic polls [that] show the race to be very close."  He discusses at length the factors that have "eroded Musgrave's prospects."

  Yet Tuesday at Daily Kos, Markos Moulitsas quietly, and with little commentary, posts a Mason-Dixon poll showing Musgrave with a solid 10-point lead.  All Kos managed to say about it is that it's "looking less good ... but Musgrave is still under the magic 50 percent mark and Paccione raised a ton of cash last quarter.  It's still in play."

CO 05: Out Like A Lamborn

  Peace in the Middle East.  A Green Party president.  Super Bowl Champion Arizona Cardinals.  Some things just seem so impossible, they're nigh on ridiculous.  Take Colorado's 5th Congressional District.  Located in Colorado Springs, home of the Air Force Academy, NORAD, and Focus on the Family, the conservative-laden district "has gone to a Republican every year since the seat was created in 1972," as Greg Pollowitz at National Review's Sixers writes.  Yet amazingly, due to a nasty primary, a disgruntled retiring incumbent, gaffes by the GOP candidate and twists of fortune, the seat could go to a Democrat for the the first time in 34 years.

  You may remember retiring Rep. Joel Hefley as the House Ethics Committee chair who was ousted by cronies of disgraced Rep. Tom DeLay (R-TX) after Hefley had the temerity to admonish "The Hammer" for his myriad shenanigans.  Hefley decided to retire, endorsing his staffer Jeff Crank in the GOP primary, a victory there essentially sealing the deal.  However, Focus on the Family-backed challenger Doug Lamborn used questionable tactics to upstage Crank and take the primary, prompting Hefley to withhold his endorsement "due to Lamborn's 'dishonest' and 'sleazy' primary campaign," Pollowitz writes.

  Into that conservative vacuum stepped unheralded Dem candidate Jay Fawcett.  While the right squabbled, Fawcett presented himself as a tasty alternative to Lamborn, and had the good fortune to be a decorated war veteran and graduate of the Academy himself.  That, along with Lamborn's short temper, Focus ties, and unpopularity among moderate Republicans and independents has put the race for CO 05 in a dead heat per a recent poll, which is a victory in and of itself.

  One incident in particular that illustrates Lamborn's problems is his outburst at a recent debate with Fawcett, telling a audience member to "keep your mouth shut."  (Video available here.)

  Kos notes that an ad that Fawcett has just begun to run is the "first Democratic TV ad aired in this district ever," per Fawcett's campaign.

IL 06: When You Get Behind Closed Doors

  Greg Sargent at TPMCafe has gotten wind of an upcoming private fundraiser hosted by Foleygated House Speaker Dennis Hastert.  The Speaker will be stumping for GOP candidates Peter Roskam and David McSweeney.

  Sargent reminds us that Roskam was the guy "who suggested that Dem vet amputee Tammy Duckworth wanted to 'cut and run' from Iraq," and he "doesn't appear to be letting Foleygate prevent him from enjoying the fundraising help."  Sargent apparently tried to get a comment from the Roskam camp, which declined.

  Commenter dbeckett wondered aloud:

  Are protests passe and lame?  What if 100,000 (or more) people spontaneously congregated at the Chicago Hilton at about the time this fundraiser was about to begin with banners and posters registering their outrage about the current situation of corruption and incompetence of the GOP and the Bush Administration.  Wouldn't that make news?

OH 18: Zack Attack

  Andrew Golis at TPMCafe sheds light on a new GOP ad blasting Dem candidate Zack Space's acceptance of a $5,000 donation from an organization called "Council for a Livable World."  "The ad hammers the think tank for advocating for defense spending cuts and opposing missile defense systems," Golis writes, "and it concludes that the Space-backing group is 'radical' and 'dangerous.'"  (You can view the ad here.)

  There's one problem with the ad, says Golis:

  As the Cleveland Plain-Dealer points out, the Council's board includes retired generals, it "was founded by scientists who developed the atomic bomb," and best of all, it is "generally considered centrist and regularly endorses Republicans."  Radical it isn't.

  Commenter Cyby9 remarks, "Pretty ironic that in a district where the Congressman resigned over a financial scandal, Reflublicans highlight a $5000 contribution to the Dem."

PA 10: Mistress Distress

  GOP Rep. Don Sherwood is getting hammered by the left in the wake of allegations of infidelity and physical abuse.  The latest lick comes in the form of an ad by Dem challenger Chris Carney, viewable here, that keeps the focus on Sherwood's improprieties.  Eric Kleefeld at TPMCafe remarks on a "key quote" in the "hard-hitting" ad: "'Don Sherwood campaigned on family values,' one constituent says.  'He has no family values.'"

  John Aravosis at AMERICAblog heaps it on Sherwood and his indiscretions, quipping, "Seriously, what do you have to do to lose a leadership position in the Republican party?"  Commenter Heil Mary at Raw Story rages, "Duplicity from the Party that demands abstinence only and deadly coerced childbearing instead of birth control and abortion for all girls and women they aren't personally bonking."  Piltdown comments with levity, "Perverts, and bullies, and thieves!  Oh my!"  Given the gravity of the allegations, it's hard to foresee any respite for Sherwood in the final weeks of the election season.

Posted by Conn Carroll at October 12, 2006 04:40 PM