October 31, 2006

10/31: It Ain't Easy For A Blogger

As anyone who has tried starting their own blog knows, it's harder than it looks. Sure, setting up an account with a blog hosting company is easy, it's just filling your blog with 2 or 3 posts a day that becomes very difficult very quickly. Blogs start and stop all the time, often without anybody noticing. But what about campaign-related blogs that suddenly go silent? What can we read it into that? Raising Kaine points out 10/31 that pro-Sen. George Allen (R) blog The A-Team hasn't had a new post since 10/27. The A-Team quickly added 3 new posts in a span of 5 minutes, but one has to wonder if their noticeable silence says anything about the energy level of Allen supporters.

LANDSCAPE: Apparently, Iraq is Going To Be An Issue In This Election

TPM Cafe's Reed Hundt observes this year's midterm elections have "morphed into a referendum on Iraq" and argues that Dems "did not intend either of these two questions until about two months ago, but Lamont's victory in the Nutmeg State primary and ensuing polling across the country caused virtually all Dems in serious races ... to run campaigns that linked the President's war and his general behavior to the local Republican." Still at TPM Cafe, Greg Sargent reports Stan Greenberg and Bob Shrum latest strategy memo "finds that thanks to the steady stream of bad news from Iraq, majorities in GOP-held districts are now for reducing the number of troops in the Iraq war. The firm surveyed 50 competitive House districts -- all of them held by Republicans -- and found that 54% in these districts only favor beginning troop reductions."

At The Huffington Post, Arianna Huffington pleads with Dems to stick to the Iraq message on the final week of the campaign. Huffington looks at DNC chair Howard Dean's explanation to CBS' Bob Schieffer that the election is about "middle-class tax fairness" and writes: "Nooooo! Dr. Dean, please, please tell me that you don't really believe this election is about "middle-class tax fairness." ... This election is about the fact that Republicans have made us less safe and that Congressional oversight is critical to ensure that Bush and company, with their tragically misguided decisions on Iraq and homeland security, don't make us even less secure over the two years they have left. Period. End of message." Fellow HuffPosterMiles Mogulescu urges Dems to "Play Smash Mouth Football on National Security" and recommends a message: "Are You Safer Now Than You Were 6 Years Ago?"

Back at TPM, Josh Marshall links to Washington Poststory on Pres. Bush statements that "terrorists will win if Democrats win and impose their policies on Iraq" and warns readers: "The desperation will be ferocious. Imagine everything from the last six years rolled into one toxic week. An electoral gauntlet of hacking knives and fire. But, then, where did one party rule ever end serenely?" Marshall also takes onCNN for adopting the "long-standing" GOP jab of calling "the Democratic party, the 'Democrat' party."

Righty blogs frame the issue a little differently. RedState promoted Speaker Denny Hastert's (R-IL) earlier post titled "The Choice Could Not Be Clearer" back to the top of the page. Hastert writes: "In short, Democrats do not believe in the Global War on Terror. I don't mean that they don't support it, though they don't. What I mean is Democrats don't believe the war actually exists. While Republicans believe the biggest threat to American freedom and security is the evil ideology that planned and executed the murder of 3,000 of our countrymen five years ago, and continues planning today, Democrats think the biggest threat to America is... Republicans."

LANDSCAPE II: The Indies Are With Us

DailyKos' founder Markos Moulitsas links to The Allen Report quoting GOP sources predicting defeat in OH, PA, and RI. Kos then ranks the most likely Dem pickups from best to worst: MT, VA, MO, and TN. Kos writes: "All four are certainly possible. And I wouldn't count out a shocker in Arizona. While not probable, it's certainly within the realm of possibilities. ... But if the election was tomorrow I'd predict a 50/50 Senate." Atrios offers his own predictions: "Dems +18 in the House, with the possibility of an orgy of party switching on both sides making the final outcome in the House uncertain. Senate: Dems +4."

Over at MyDD, Jerome Armstrong is more bullish writing that "Karl Rove is on crack." Armstrong looks at Gallup polling and continues: "The independents are aligned with Democrats. It was that way last week, and it's been that way all the time, since last summer. The best estimates put the number of seats gained by Democrats at around 20 from this conservative, and 10-24 from the Republicans at RCP, at 8-26 by CQ's current projection, and anywhere from 16 to 40 from Pollster.com, and from 24-29 by Chris Bowers here."

Back at Daily Kos Markos tracks new DCCC investments in NY-25, KS-02, KY-02, NH-02, NV-03, CA-11, and PA-04.

LANDSCAPE III: Polls Schmolls

National Review Online's Rich Lowry identifies 10 seats the GOP will lose as well as a second tier of 16 that the GOP can only lose 12 of and keep the House. Lowry concludes: "In general, Republicans tend to think, as of this moment, the seats that they are going to lose are scandals seats; races where the Republican candidates are running lazy, mistake-prone campaigns; and seats that are just always tough for Republicans. They don't kid themselves about the national environment, but don't think it will be enough to defeat good candidates running good campaigns, limiting the damage and preventing a total wipe-out this year. If they lose, it will only be by a few seats."

Later Lowry follows up with 4 GOP pick up opportunities including: IL-8, GA-8, GA-12, and VT-AL.

Many on the right are also linking to Michael Barone's latest article casting doubt polls showing Dems dramatically ahead. Power Line's John Hinderaker summarizes: "The key point is that in 2004, people who actually voted split exactly equally between Republicans and Democrats. On the other hand, current polling is showing party identification favoring the Democrats by 5 to 12 points. As Barone notes, party identification has historically changed only slowly. It is highly unlikely that the turnout on November 7 will favor the Dems by anything like 5 to 12 points. Which throws into question most if not all of the poll results we've all been seeing."

Finally, TCS' Ed Driscollinterviews National Review Online's Jonah Goldberg on "the upcoming mid-term elections and what their results could mean to America."

BLOGGERS VS. MSM: Take This Job And Shove It

Lucas O'Connor, now in charge of Google Bomb updates at MyDD, defends the project by discussing two fundamental beliefs: "First, that the media is currently underserving the general public through a combination of apathy, incompetence, and overt right-wing leanings. Second, that voters (and by extension the country) would be better served by a complete understanding of the choice before them." O'Connor continues: "The project presumes that an impartial but impassioned presentation of the facts is difficult, if not impossible, to come by if this current atmosphere is left to its own devices ... To this end, thousands of people across the country have joined together in order to raise several specific issues of importance to the upcoming election. These issues have all been reported by mainstream, impartial news sources, and if enough people are concerned about these issues to mount an effective Google Bomb, then, quite frankly, they are issues worth discussion in the national discourse."

O'Connor concludes: "Fighting back is not inherently the same as fighting dirty. This is the system in which we've been forced to operate for the time being. It's been constructed to restrict the free flow of information and issues, and we aren't cheating because we find a way to work within the constraints.So please CNN. Please New York Times. Please San Diego Union-Tribune. Please whomever. I don't want this job. Take it back."

On the right, Right Wing News updates his own Google Bomb efforts: "After 3 days, the first Googlebomb only had 10 of 45 links in the top 20. Now, after 7 days, it's up 35 links in the top 30."

BLOGGERS VS. BELTWAY: The 72-Hour Myth

GMU prof. Michael McDonald's 10/29 article on the 5 myths about turnout is drawing blogger attention. Pollster.com highlights McDonald's doubts about the GOP's "72 hour program" where he writes: "Studies of a campaign's personal contact with voters through phone calls, door-to-door solicitation and the like find that it does have some positive effect on turnout. ... We don't know what the effects of mobilization drives are in highly competitive races in which people are bombarded by media stories, television ads and direct mail." Pollster comments: "Also, in 2002 and 2004, the 72-Hour-Campaign also benefited from a political environment and national mood largely favorable to Republicans. Not so this time. We will soon see whether they can work the same magic in a climate like 2006."

MyDD's Chris Bowers finds the negative ad myth the most interesting. Bowers writes: "I bet it was going nuclear on John Kerry via Swift Boating and other tactics that allowed Republican turnout in 2004 to surpass Democratic turnout. Given this, in isolation, I'd bet that the Republican 72-hour program and the Amway-stuff probably wasn't superior to our GOTV operations by much, if at all. What was clearly superior was their messaging to drive up base turnout, with going nuclear on gay marriage and equally nuclear on John Kerry serving as essential factors. This could also explain why Democrats appear more mobilized in 2006 than Republicans. We can go nuclear on Bush to the base, but they can't pull off going nuclear on "generic Democrat," which is essentially who we are to about 50% of the electorate right now."

BLOGGERS VS. BELTWAY II: There's No Such Ting As A FreeEats

Pollster.com follows up on Talking Points Memo reports of push polling in MD, TN, and OH by identifying the firm responsible for the calls. After comparing reader reports of calls and an at least one audio recording to a sample "political survey" available on the web, Pollster.com fingers ccAdvertising, a.k.a. FreeEats.com, a.k.a. ElectionResearch.com as the firm responsible for the ad/

DailyKos diarist WeDemocrats in IL-19 reports receiving a push poll from the Terrance Group, and TPM Muckraker's Justin Rood reports that Paul Kiel spoke with Zeke Smith, "the man responsible for those calls and similar ones against at least four other Senate Democratic candidates."

BLOGGERS VS. BELTWAY III: Workin' Hard For The Money

Beltway Blogroll has a thorough look at the increased hiring of bloggers by campaigns. Daniel Glover catalogues the diverse tasks campaigns assign to bloggers including: "to write blogs, develop Web sites, connect with energetic allies on the Internet, respond to online critics, and advise their employers about how to behave in the blogosphere. Others are paid to do more traditional campaign work like communications consulting and opposition research."

Not all bloggers are created equal though: "pay scales range from a few hundred dollars a month to a few thousand, with some of the bloggers earning top dollar for their expertise."

MD SEN: Currying Favor

Manyrightybloggers linked to stories on LG Michael Steele (R) receiving endorsement from ex-Prince Georges County Executive Wayne Curry. RedState's Erick Erickson writes: "

TN SEN: 'Cause Nothing's Funnier Than Pedophilia

DailyKos' founder Markos Moulitsas posts a "Hilarious spoof off that racist RNC ad against Ford ... My favorite line, other than all the Foley jokes? ... If the Constitution can't protect us against terrorists, why protect it?"

On the right, Right Wing News is upset with lefty bloggers who linked to Wonkette's pic of ex-Chattanooga mayor Bob Corker's (R) "daughter kissing another girl at a party." RWN comments: "Does this fit into the McCarthesque outing campaign the left has engaged in during this campaign season? Yes. Does it also fall into the "politics of personal destruction" that the left now regularly uses against its enemies? Sure. Is it an attempt to go after Bob Corker's daughter to get at him? Certainly."

VA SEN: Maybe Colonel Decker Has Them

RCP Blog's John McIntyre latest post on the ex-Navy Sec. James Webb (D)/Sen. George Allen (R) race is headed "George Allen in Trouble." McIntyre notes the "only big news event in this race was the Allen campaign's dump of sexually provocative passages from Jim Webb's many novels. ... Did Allen see his numbers deteriorating and decide he needed to dump the Webb stuff? Or is this is just one poll taken on the weekend that will turn out to be an outlier? We'll find out soon enough."

RedState's Erick Erickson warns readers not to pay attention to recent internal Webb polls showing Allen behind: "When I see campaigns willingly releasing their campaign internals, I get very suspicious. I trust DSCC and NRSC polls about the same and campaign polls with them. Internal means internal. ... So, when I see ... Jim Webb (Perv-VA) releasing [his] internal polls, I think they must be losing and are trying to reassure their base while at the same time attempting to generate favorable media headlines to stop any hemorrhaging.

Meanwhile under the header "Jim Webb limited the roles available to women in the Navy" AllenHQ links to stories on Webb's tenure as Navy Sec. and writes: "Why does Jim Webb constantly claim he opened up more billets for women on his own initiative? In fact, the initiative was that of the Department of Defense, and Jim Webb actually limited their attempt to open more billets for women."

On the left, Webb's Netroots Coordinator and Raising Kaine founder Lowell Feld observes: "The "A-Team blog's last post was on October 27. That's FOUR days ago; rather odd for the last week of tight election campaign. What's going on over there?"

At TPM Cafe, Greg Sargent notes the DSCC is now demanding the release of Allen's VA bar application and demands more coverage of Allen's past from the Washington Post. Kos also highlights "the Democratic counterattack demanding that George Allen release his arrest records. Yeah, he's got sealed arrest records."

OBAMA: We Thought Clinton Was The First Black President

The Huffington Post's Byron Williams recounts an elderly woman "with tears in her eyes" from the 2004 Dem convo. who told him: "I didnt think I would live to see it, but I may be looking at the first African-American president" after seeing Sen. Barack Obama (D-IL) speak. Williams comments on the lack of excitement surrounding the other Dem hope fulls and concludes: "Maybe the time is right for Obama to run. It could very well be that his lack of years in the Senate is actually a strength. He was not there when many of his current colleagues, forced to decide between the courage of their convictions and the perception of appearing patriotic, chose a Faustian bargain which they are still clumsily attempting to explain."

GIULIANI: Also Ran Or Never Ran?

Daniel McKivergan at The Worldwide Standard describes what ex-NY mayor Rudy Giuliani (R) campaign might look like: "Because he's not a fan of the liberal media establishment, I suspect Giuliani would pick some fights with them to score points with conservative Republicans turned off by his social views. As mayor, Giuliani frequently battled The New York Times and its editors over his policies. Getting in a fight with the Times and other liberal icons won't lose him votes in the GOP, and it would put pressure on McCain to do much the same or risk hemorrhaging too many conservative votes to Giuliani."

Interviewed by Roger L. Simon for Pajamas Media, however, some guy named Chuck Todd argues that "Rudi" probably will not make a WH run.

THOUGHT OF THE DAY: The Turd Blossum Has No Clothes

In an effort to "get people to finally drop out of the Rove (anti-)cult" Talking Points Memo's Josh Marshall revisits an argument he made in his second ever TPM post

Going into the big day the polls all showed a very, very close race, with perhaps ever so slight an edge for Bush. Conventional logic would have dictated sending Bush to swing states like Florida. But that's not what Rove did. He chose instead to send Bush to California and New Jersey -- states Bush could only have any hope of winning in a blow-out. The reasoning was simple. Rove figured that he could accomplish more through convincing mainly the press, but also activists and even highly-plugged voters, that Bush was going to win big than he would by sending his guy into a state like Florida for some last minute retail politicking.

As it happened, it was a really dumb decision in 2000. If not for faulty ballots and election stealing, Bush would have lost Florida and the presidency. And given the margin, it's at least conceivable that Bush could have won fair and square had he spent the last few days on the ground in Florida.

LEST WE FORGET: The Blogometer Is All For Ney/Traficant '08

Talking Points Memo's Josh Marshall provides reader with some comic relief: "Rep. Duncan Hunter (R-CA) is forming an exploratory committee to run for president." The always helpful Marshall even contributes a possible campaign slogan: "I managed to avoid getting indicted in the Cunningham probe. I can keep the country out of trouble too." JM concludes: "I hear Bob Ney may be making a few swings through New Hampshire too."

Posted by Conn Carroll at October 31, 2006 12:37 PM