10/30: This Campaign Is Just Beginning

If CW holds, and Dems take back the House while cable exec Ned Lamont (D) loses to Sen. Joe Lieberman (I), don't expect the energy levels on the lefty blogs to dissipate. Articles in the San Francisco Chronicle and New York Times quoting Rep. Ellen Tauscher (D-CA) on the need for Dems not to run "over the left cliff" once they attain power, have MyDD's Chris Bowers and Matt Stoller promising '08 primary challenges and "Intraparty War." Netroots activists are also unhappy with Dem establishment support for Lamont, and lists are being prepared on who's been naughty and who's been nice. So don't try and take a vacation from politics after 11/7. Because bloggers sure won't.

LANDSCAPE: Cook Vs. Rove

RCP Blog's John McIntyre breaks down "two very different ways to look at this election" including the "Charlie Cook" view that Dems will pick up 20-35 House seats and the "Karl Rove" view the the GOP loses less than 15 House seats and holds both chambers. In the House RCP projects an 18-seat Dem pick up. Right Wing News is even more encouraged by the fence-bill signing and NJ gay-marriage decision, and now believes, like Rove, the GOP will maintain the House.

Across the righty 'sphere, bloggers are confident the GOP will maintain control of the Senate. Townhall's Hugh Hewitt and Power Line's Scott Johnson both link to Tradesports data showing the GOP likely to hold on in VA, TN, and MO.

Also at Townhall, Hewitt defends the "Bush-Rove political legacy" and at National Review Online, Jonah Goldberg preemptively points the finger at NRSC chair Sen. Liddy Dole (R-NC).

LANDSCAPE II: Everyone's A Winner

Lefty blogs are beginning to focus more and more on GOTV questions in the final week. DailyKos' founder Markos Moulitsas links to New York Timesreports on strong Dem efforts and asks: "So, have we caught up to the GOP turnout machine? Parity may or may not be in the cards (the GOP's list is on its third cycle, while the Dems is brand new this year), but we are better off than we've been in a while. ... And whatever else one might say about the party committees and who should or shouldn't get "credit" if we win, fact is all three of them have invested heavily on the ground."

Also at Daily Kos, Georgia10 looks at a US Newsarticle on the decentralized nature of the Dem turnout machine and links to programs readers can participate in, including: Do More Than Vote, MoveOn's Call for Change, and MoveOn's Pre-Halloween Phone Parties

Still at Daily Kos, DemFromCT looks at '04 polling data from OH, MO, and NJ and concludes: "The point is that the polls were relatively accurate predictors of the state of play for a 50 state presidential election." Turning to the GOTV question, DFCT writes: "when we look at the GOP GOTV and compare results with polling, it doesn't appear that there were huge swings away from the expected results. The idea that the GOP GOTV is worth > 2% points [more than D GOTV] seems a bit suspect (CT Senate excepted, because it pits a D GOTV vs no clear competitor). Even in Ohio, where it's most famous, it brought in a slim win that didn't radically differ from the polling ratios."

At TPM Cafe, Greg Sargent tracks last-minute GOP cash dumps including $3M in NJ SEN and $7M "into dozens of House races." At MyDD, Chris Bowers still forecasts Dems to takeover the house, but is worried by over 50 races with Dem leads still in the single digits.

CT SEN: The Natives Are Restless

Under the header "Torches and Pitchforks" firedoglake's Jane Hamsher links to a APstory titled "Lieberman says potential for leadership role helps candidacy" and writes: "Offhand I can't think of any other event in recent history outside of the big three - Katrina, Alito and Torture - that would elicit much more online rage." MyDD's Matt Stoller also is not happy with beltway Dem performance on behalf of cable exec Ned Lamont (D):

Whether it was a standing ovation at a caucus meeting when Joe got back to the Senate after his primary loss, or Obama refusing to come to Connecticut or criticize Joe in any way, or Bill Clinton praising Lieberman on Larry King, or Harry Reid promising Lieberman seniority, or Chuck Schumer refusing to get involved and practically being forced to not back Lieberman after the primary, or insiders telling Lamont's campaign that they would talk Joe out of the race if Lamont didn't go on the attack, it's very clear that the Democratic Party leadership is rotten to the core.

Stoller goes on to praise the efforts of Sen. John Kerry (D-MA), Sen. Chris Dodd (D), Sen. Ted Kennedy (D-MA), and retired Gen. Wesley Clark (D) who "have been there for Lamont." Stoller concludes: "Make no mistake, these DC Democrats are only our temporary allies. They have total contempt for the rules of the party, and they cheered Joe after he faced us in the primary. ... The American people know this. They know that Democratic Senators are moral lepers, weaklings, and that is the only reason we aren't further ahead when the Republicans screw everything up."

Back at firedoglakePachacutec singles out Sen. Barack Obama (D-IL), John Edwards, and "the Clintons" for their "calculated" support for Lamont. Sen. Russ Feingold (D-WI) initially made the list, but official Lamont blogger Tim Tagaris wrote in to explain it was the campaign's fault Feingold was not extended an official invitation earlier.

On the right, RCP Blog's Tom Bevan observes: "Lamont will kick in another $2 million to his campaign. That brings his total investment in both the primary and the general election to a whopping $12.75 million. Ouch."

MD SEN: Dial P For Push Poll

Talking Points Memo reader RC reports receiving a "push poll for Michael Steele" including the question: "Do you favor carrying out medical experiments on unborn babies?" Other TPM readers report receiving similar calls and there is some doubt as to who is making the calls: "Some reports we've gotten say the call was the Steele campaign; others say it was a group called "Common Sense Maryland." Still others say the sponsor was "Common Sense Ohio." Josh Marshall goes on to quote readers from other states claiming to have received similar relevant calls.

Still on the left Oliver Willis has video of Steele's Meet the Press debate with Rep. Ben Cardin (D-03) and reports: "Maybe the markets saw that Steele lost this debate. His contract on Tradesports lost value during the debate, with it now showing him dropping from 28% likelihood to win down to 24%."

On the right, RCP Blog's Tom Bevan posts video of Steele's response to Cardin's Michael J. Fox ad. The response features Steele's sister Dr. Monica Turner.

MO SEN: Out Foxed?

The Plank's Eve Fairbanks looks at Pollster.com data showing Sen. James Talent (R) moving ahead of Aud. Claire McCaskill and wonders: "distasteful as the thought is -- if the Michael J. Fox kerfuffle didn't have a little blowback there."

TN SEN: On Prostitutes And Playmates

Townhall's Mary Katharine Ham has video of her appearance with AMERICAblog's John Aravosis discussing the RNC's "bimbo" ad. Later she notes Rep. Harold Ford (D-09) denied the ad had anything to do with race and writes: "I also don't have a big problem with the sexual nature of the RNC ad. Carol Lin called the "bimbo" in the ad a "prostitute" yesterday. For real? If strapless shirts now mean "prostitute," I'm gonna have to rethink some of my wardrobe choices. She's a Playmate. She's a party girl. She's not a prostitute, for goodness sake. All in all, it's pretty tame."

TPM Cafe's Greg Sargent reports that Wal-Mart thought the ad was more than tame. Responding to pressure from Rev. Jesse Jackson, Wal-Mart ended its relationship with "bimbo" ad consultant Terry Nelson for his role in the production of the ad. Also blogging on the ad, Josh Marshall reports at Talking Points Memo that the RNC recieved money from Nicholas T. Boyias who is "one of the largest producers and distributors of gay porn in the United States." AMERICAblog's John Aravosis follows up reminding readers of pornstar Mary Carey's continued financial support of the GOP.

Also making it s way around righty blogs, video of Ford saying: " My friend Lincoln Davis who chairs our campaign says there are, there's one big difference between us and misfortunate Republicans when it comes to our faith: he said that Republicans fear the Lord; he said Democrats fear AND love the Lord."

VA SEN: Is That What Smells In VA?

Daily Kos diarist GregP has video ex-Navy Sec. James Webb (D) responding to Sen. George Allen (R) attacks on his fiction writing including: "And by attacking my career and my ethics in this way, if anyone has any doubts from other indicators, he has now shown his true character ... if you want to find accountability for this, remember that the fish rots from the head down." Webb Netroots Coordinator Lowell FeldRaising Kaine also has video from the same 10/28 Annandale, VA rally and audio of Webb's Democratic Radio Address.

Webb wasn't the only one unimpressed with Allen's fiction related attack. National Review Online's Kathryn Jean Lopez calls the move "lame and unbecoming of the senator" but still bemoans MSM bias in the race. And Hot Air has video of Michelle Malkin on Fox slamming "Smutgate" calling it "desperate, pathetic, ... immature" and predicting Dems will take the House.

Back on the left, Feld calls on Sens. John McCain (R-AZ) and John Warner (R) to withdraw their endorsement of Allen and DailyKos' founder Markos Moulitsas notes that the Webb book in question is on the United States Marine Corps reading list for professional development.

TPM Cafe's Greg Sargent wants to fight fire with fire, demanding the Washington Post and New York Times seek to unseal Allen's divorce records : "So Allen has opened the door for news orgs to press hard for his divorce record -- which could tell us something of Allen's attitudes towards women, specifically his ex-wife."

Not everyone on the right is embarrassed by the Allen campaign. Erick Erickson at RedState asks Virginia: "Sure, John Mark Karr's/Jim Webb's supporters can hide behind the "it's just fiction" defense. But you really want to do that? Do you really want to defend a guy with that sort of imagination?" And AllenHQ reminds readers of Keith Olbermann's condemnation of Scooter Libby for his fiction writing.

BLOGGERS VS. BELTWAY: It's Our Party, And We'll Do What We Want To

Rep. Ellen Tauscher (D-CA) attained "Wanker of the Day" status for her comments in San Francisco Chronicle and New York Times articles on upcoming Dem "tug-of-war in own tent." MyDD's Chris Bowers singles out this offensive line: "I think there's tremendous agreement and awareness that getting the majority and running over the left cliff is what our Republican opponents would dearly love," Ms. Tauscher said. Bowers responds: "I am so unbelievably angry right now, and it takes a lot for me to fly off the handle like this. If we lose this election, it will be the fault of the Ellen Taushcers of the Democratic Party. Why should people keep giving, keep volunteering, keep infusing the party with new blood, keep building new media, keep supporting primary winners they don't like, if we are told point blank that we are not wanted?" Bowers goes on to assure Tauscher she will face "a surprisingly strong and well funded primary challenger with tons of volunteers and lots of support in the progressive media" in '08. MyDD's Matt Stoller has a similar post under the header: "On Eve of Election, New Democrats Declare Intraparty War"

Later Bowers returned to strike a more conciliatory tone: "We need a broad coalition in order to govern, and neither conservatives nor progressive will ever be thoroughly purged from a Democratic governing coalition. ... To keep the coalition together, we need to do three things. First, we all must have an ownership stake. Second, we must all agree to act within mutually agreed upon rules to resolve intra-coalition conflicts. Third, we have to all be working for each other, despite our differences."

Talk Left's Big Tent Democrat looks at the same stories and argues the MSM is trying to create differences among Dems the don't exist

ROMNEY: Stalled Out?

The MI Cooler notes that the day the Boston Globe came out with its MA Gov. Mitt Romney (R) "mormon/IRS problem" story, "Romney's Tradesports value dropped by 18% and continued to stay at a lower value as articles ran." MIC continues: "The level seems to be stabilizing but that brings into question whether an enterprising Romney supporter is buying up shares to stop the free fall. Regardless, this story clearly has hurt Romney's candidacy and stopped any momentum he had built over the summer."

THOUGHT OF THE DAY: The Ink Spot Strategy In America

MyDD's Chris Bowers looks at the aftermath from both progressive and conservative efforts "to replace so-called "moderates" with more ideologically palatable candidates" and concludes: "Republicans are trying to squeeze a more conservative country out of their base districts, and then still facing serious challenges in the general election in those base districts. By contrast, all Democratic primary challenges are followed by total Republican abandonment of the districts targeted for primaries. Bowers goes on to argue:

In other words, the 25% of the country that Republicans have abandoned tend to be closely grouped with the areas of the country where Democrats can make substantial gains this year. Basically, this means that when Republicans finally lose in many of these areas, they won't be coming back. For example, Republicans abandoned Philadelphia a long time ago, but now every seat they lose in Philadelphia suburbs this year won't be changing hands again for a long, long time. The blue, urban dots they left behind are spreading and becoming larger, as they slowly transform into full-blown blue regions.

LEST WE FORGET: Toke Me Up, Elmo

The Smoking Gun has DEA evidence photos of a hollowed out Tickle Me Elmo doll used to hide four pounds of methamphetamine as part of a 21-member CO drug operation. TSG comments: "While Elmo has never previously been linked to narcotics distribution or use, the Sesame Street character appears to have no teeth, which frequently is seen in heavy meth users."