October 26, 2006

10/26: Iraq Is King

If you were hoping gay marriage, stem cells, or new Foley scandal revelations would bounce Iraq out of the top issue spot this cycle, you're gonna be disappointed. Perhaps court decisions granting marriage rights to gays just don't carry the shock value they used to. But whatever the reason, few bloggers are predicting the issue will be a boon for the GOP this time around. Instead, local issues/scandals are dominating even the nat'l 'sphere. In TN, race baiting is front and center, while MD and MO races have bloggers focussed on stem cells. But everywhere, Iraq is the underlying issue. The one keeping Pres. Bush away from districts where he took 62% in '04.

GAY MARRIAGE: October Unsurprise

Plenty of blogger reaction to New Jersey Supreme Court's decision to grant gay couples the same marriage rights as straight couples, but little of it election focussed. National Review Online's Kathryn Jean Lopez suggests the Family Research Council "folks" she recently was with "now have their reason to vote" but she also doesn't believe the decision will help State Sen. Tom Kean Jr. (R) since "he's against a federal marriage amendment."

Kausfiles suggests Dems may have dodged a "Big Gay Bullet" when the court granted gay couples rights without calling it marriage thus avoiding "having the state instantly become, in AP's pre-anticipatory words, "the nation's gay wedding chapel." Hot Air's Allahpundit also sees "no effect" for the GOP this fall. Right Angle Blog's Chris Field, however, does argue that the "The N.J. court just gave the Republican Party a major campaign issue."

Non-election related reaction spanned the spectrum from AMERICAblog criticising the court for not going far enough, to National Review Online readers asking if they could now marry their mother.

Andrew Sullivan and Instapundit both approve of the decision, though Sullivan is the most happy: "I think this is a perfectly sane compromise. It's what the Brits have done. Leave the m-word to the churches; but let the state grant equal protection under the law. The Christianists can no longer claim that we are redefining civil marriage in New Jersey. We're just being fair to gay couples who, as citizens, have every right to be treated equally under the law.

Elsewhere The Volokh Conspiracy argues "this decision, whether you like it or not, seems to be an illustration that the slippery slope is a real phenomenon." And Captain's Quarters suggest "true libertarians would argue that government should stop sanctioning marriages altogether and just treat them at the contractual level."

STEM CELLS: Apparently, Lefty Bloggers Don't Like Rush Limbaugh

Crooks and Liars has video from Keith Olbermann's Countdown showing conservative talk radio host Rush Limbaugh imitating Michael J. Fox's Parkinson symptoms. Lefties were appalled:

• Josh Marshall at Talking Points Memo: "The man's a blight. As I said below, making fun of people suffering from a debilitating disease would send most folks into a career crisis. As TPM Reader DC says, "He's vile; a real pig and a terrible terrible commentary on the state of our national life."
• AMERICAblog: "Limbaugh is doing the GOP's dirty work. The candidates know it. Their failure to criticize Rush speaks volumes. So, they own Rush. Every reporter covering these races should be asking Talent, Steele and Green if they agree with the hero of the GOP, Rush Limbaugh."
• Russell Shaw at The Huffington Post: "Rush knew full well what he was saying. A native Missourian, he made the charges against Fox for political reasons. Rush is playing to the conservative base in Missouri. The folks that maybe with Mel Gibson excepted, reflexively don't like Hollywood-even a polite actor such as Fox.
• Firedoglake's Jane Hamsher: "Rush is paid, and valued, for his role in getting that kind of ugly stuff into circulation. And those like Brian Williams or Howard Kurtz (who claims that Rush is "so mainstream") don't seem to care that he does this stuff all the time.
• The Washington Monthly's Kevin Drum: "Actually, I'm sort of happy to see this. Too often it's been liberals who respond to tough ads with whining, but now conservatives are doing it instead - and it's a sign of weakness. If conservatives want to defend Talent's position, they should go right ahead and do so. But accusing Michael J. Fox of faking his symptoms and then complaining that a 30-second spot isn't a Brookings white paper? That shows a kind of helpless desperation that it's nice to see on the other side for once."

On the right, Townhall's Dean Barnett answers eleven questions about the Fox ad including whether or not it will be effective: "It won't be effective. One of the key maxims in advertising is never disquiet the audience. If you do, you alienate them. This ad is most definitely disquieting."

RedState's Erick Erickson offers a fullthroated defense of Limbaugh: "To be clear, Rush said that he thought Michael J. Fox was either acting or off his meds in that commercial. In fact, Michael J. Fox has admitted to going off his medicine when he wants to make a point about Parkinson's Disease. In fact, if you've seen Michael J. Fox on TV in the last year, you'll note that his tremors were much more pronounced in the political stunt from this past Sunday." And Kathryn Jean Lopez at National Review Online explains how Jim Caveziel's Aramaic phrase in the Fox response ad relates to MO's Amendment 2.

TERROR POLITICS: Bush As Lucy

Many lefty bloggers had video of a new DNC ad up and running even before Pres. Bush's 10/25 press conference. TPM Cafe's Greg Sargent summarizes: "The ad shows Bush, Dick Cheney and Tony Snow repeating "stay the course" no less than 15 times before abruptly pivoting to Bush saying: "Listen, we've never been stay the course." The coup de grace: "Mr. President, America deserves more than a change in rhetoric. America deserves a change in strategy."

AMERICAblog's John Aravosis live-blogged the news conference, beseeching the media to toughen up on Bush: "Okay media: where's the substantial statement on Iraq? You were DUPED again by the White House. You are all like Charlie Brown kicking the football. The Bush team does this to you over and over. It's a scam for free air time on all the networks. The funny thing is that this time, it hurts the GOP. Bush is making Iraq THE ONLY ISSUE and that hurts the Republicans."

Firedoglake's Christy Hardin Smith doesn't like MSM talk of Bush's "honesty" at the press conference and argues that the Pres. did not offer any meaningful change to his Iraq policy except for the addition of benchmarks that the Maliki government must meet. And on those benchmarks, at The Huffington PostStephen Kaus wants to know what the administration's plan is if the Maliki government misses any of them.

Bush also received righty blogger criticism on the benchmark question. National Review Online's Mario Loyola: "The administration needs to explain its own benchmarks to the American people-in a way that avoids causing a fight with the Maliki government. So far, it seems to be failing on both counts - and that is NOT a course this administration wants to stay on."

Finally, The Plank's Ryan Lizza notes that Rep. John Hostettler (R-IN) has an ad out "touting his vote against the war" and that the Hoosier "won't even allow Bush to visit the district" despite his 62%in 2004.

TERROR POLITICS II: Bush As Vexed

Pres. Bush sat down with conservative journalists 10/25 including Michael Barone, Tony Blankley, Daniel Henninger, Charles Krauthammer, Lawrence Kudlow, Kathleen Parker, Mark Steyn, and Byron York. York writes:

At times during the conversation, the president seemed vexed - not beaten, not downcast, but vexed - by conditions in Iraq. Bush didn't say so, but from his words it seemed hard to deny that in some significant measure the insurgents and the sectarian killers are in control in the country, and that the fate of the American mission is in their hands. "The frustration is that the definition of success has now gotten to be, how many innocent people are dying?" the president said. "And if there's a lot dying, it means the enemy is winning." He paused. "That doesn't mean they're winning."

Barone has a transcript of the session and adds:

Bush started off with a lengthy monologue, trying to put a historical perspective on where we are now. He clearly sees his primary mission as protecting the American people from the terrorists who want to do everything they can to hurt and destroy us and our civilization. He makes the point that we ought to listen to their words when they threaten to kill us-even though our first instinct is to flinch and turn away from threats that, if taken seriously, are extremely disturbing. Later he returned to this theme. The September 11 attacks made it clear, he said, that we're at war, and we're still at war. These terrorists want to kill us and destroy our civilization, and they will use any excuse that comes to mind-Israel, the Crusades, and if not the Crusades then the cartoons.

LANDSCAPE: Depressed In The West?

National Review Online's Ramesh Ponnuru forwards worries from "one well-known Republican strategist" about early losses in IN, KY, CT, NY, and PA affecting west coast districts: "We could be down a dozen [House seats] by 9:30 Eastern. If the networks report that the House has flipped, what does that do to Wilson and Pombo and Doolittle and Reichert?"

Also at National Review Online, Jim Geraghty shares emails assessing early GOTV efforts across the country including good GOP efforts in CO, but spotty ones in VA.

Both RCP Blog's John McIntyre and Outside the Beltway comment on Karl Rove's appearance on NPR with Robert Siegel. McIntyre reports: "Rove crystallizes the disconnect going with the analysis in this election. The press and pundits appear to be overly obsessed with the generic national polls that show big Democratic leads but when you start to break down the individual races that Democrats have to win to get control of each chamber it is far from a sure thing that the Democrats will capture either house. The Senate has improved noticeably for Republicans these last few days, the current RCP Senate Averages now project only a 4 seat pick up for the Democrats, two short of what they need for control."

MD SEN: Can You Name The Green Candidate?

DailyKos' founder Markos Moulitsas notes both NRSC and DSCC polls have LG Michael Steele (R) around 40% while the DSCC poll pushes more leaners into Rep. Ben Cardin's (D-03) column moving him from 41% to 52%. Markos also notes: "There's one other difference in poll methodologies -- it looks like the NRSC polled the Green candidate by name while the DSCC didn't (I'm double checking on that). If so, that could also account for some of the discrepancy in numbers."

On the right, Power Line's Paul Mirengoff urges readers to "Annoy the Washington Post, contribute to the Steele campaign" and posts video of Steele's new ad.

TN SEN: Well, If Chris Matthews Is Pissed ...

Lefty bloggers are up in arms over the "full-out racist tactics" of GOPers in TN. MyDD's Chris Bowers notes: "Even Chris Matthews is pissed." Upset over a NRSC ad using a "ditzy blonde" to remind voters of Rep. Harold Ford Jr.'s (D-09) attendance at a Super Bowl Playboy party, Talking Points MemoJosh Marshall suggest we should all "be honest with ourselves. Racism is one of the key building blocks of Republican politics in the United States." Marshall concludes by celebrating the GOP's decision to run the ad: "The point is that as vile as this race-hucksterism is, for my part I welcome the opportunity that Republican desperation provides, to show these guys for who they really are. Scratch the surface of 'outreach' Mehlman and he's a Southern strategy man after all. So, fine, bring it on. Cut away the veil and the mask. Let everyone come out from under their rock and be who they really are.

TPM Cafe's Greg Sargent also reports that stations in Nashville and Chattanooga are refusing to air the RNC's replacement ad "without further verification from the RNC of the claims in the ad" which include attacks on Ford's positions on gay marriage, abortion, and for taking money from porn producers.

Sargent also reports that ex-Chattanooga mayor Bob Corker's (R) new radio ad "has what sounds like tom-tom drums playing in the background every time the ad talks about Dem Harold Ford" Sargent then quotes WGOW program director Bill Lockhart: "They're freaking jungle-drums ...I t's racist -- it tries to conjure up deep, dark African moods. Yeah, it's overtly racial." Audio here.

Townhall's Mary Katharine Ham argues Corker should never have called for the ads removal and is "glad it's gotten blanket coverage because of Ford's inane accusations." RCP Blog's Tom Bevan also defends the ad arguing "the "ditsy blonde bimbo" is a more accurate caricature of what we all picture when we think "Playboy bunny." National Review Online's Rich Lowry labels the ad a "Bull's Eye."

Not everyone on the left is happy with Ford though. DailyKos' founder Markos Moulitsas looks at Ford's non-support of NJ's decision on gay marriage and writes: "How f---ing awful! It's a disgrace! Equal rights? Pshaw! How dare the NJ Supreme Court refuse to allow discrimination? Yeah, I want Ford to win. But I won't cry when he doesn't."

KERRY: You Win Some, You Lose Some

Firedoglake's Jane Hamsher calls Sen. John Kerry (D-MA) a "Stand Up Guy" for campaigning with cable exec Ned Lamont (D) in East Hartford, CT. hamsher writes: "Kerry deserves some big netroots praise for his willingness to buck the Incumbency Protection Racket and listen to what Democratic voters are saying."

Meanwhile back in DC, AMERICAblog's John Aravosis takes offense at calls from Kerry's PAC for cash since "Kerry knows people are in a giving spirit, so he's taking advantage of their generosity and their naivete. What a surprise - John Kerry, the man for whom political stunts matter more than results (think: Davos filibuster)."

ROMNEY: People-Powered Politics

Righty bloggers are loving MA Gov. Mitt Romney latest press conference exchange with a Boston Globe reporter. Power Line's Paul Mirengoff describes Romney's reaction to a rambling question: "Eventually, Romney interrupted by joking, "Do you have a point of view on this?" The reporter responded, "I represent the people, governor." To which Romney said, "No, I represent the people, you represent the media." RedState has video of the exchange.

BLOGGERS VS. BELTWAY: Blogger See, Blogger Do

Talking Points Memo's Josh Marshall notes the success of MyDD's Chris Bowers "Use It Or Lose It" campaign linking to a story showing Sens. Ted Kennedy (D-MA) and John Kerry (D-MA) donating $500K apiece split between the DSCC and the DCCC. At MyDD Bowers later argues he does not want the credit since Dem incumbents will be more likely to give if it looks like they came up with the idea on their own.

The campaign also had the desired effect on Rep. Marty Meehan (D-MA). MyDD's Matt Stoller first put up a post titled "Marty Meehan: Greedy, Short-sighted, and not the next MA Senator" that also called Meehan "sleazy" but later Stoller updated readers: "Apparently he's chipping in some cash. Good for Marty!"

Righty bloggers have also noticed Bowers efforts and Right Wing News asks: "So, why shouldn't we do the same thing? It only makes sense, right?" RWN puts together his own list of flush GOP incumbents and Right Angle Blog's Robert Bluey suggests those incumbents give to the 21 candidates on the Rightroots list.

BLOGGERS VS. BELTWAY II: Haven't Seen The Last Of This Story Yet

Many righty bloggers are linking to this Gay Patriot post highlighting reports that the Human Rights Campaign recently fired a new employee for his role in posting the Foley/page e-mails to the "Stop Sex Predators" website.

BLOGGER VS. BLOGGER: Soul Caliber

Andrew Sullivan sat down for a lengthy interview on Hugh Hewitt's radio show about Sullivan's new book The Conservative Soul. Transcript here, audio here, and blogger round up via Hewitt here.

THOUGHT OF THE DAY: Student Athletes No More

TAPPED's Ben Adler looks at George Will's latest op-ed on college athletics and offers his own solution:

The only problem with the piece is that Will seems to buy into the standard approach to this issue, which is to suggest ways of scaling back the business side of college sports and improving the academic experience for college athletes. Clearly, the business is too lucrative, and the fans are too crazed, for this to ever happen. Rather, as I've argued before, college athletics should be spun off from the schools that sponsor them. College athletes who are clearly not academically qualified should be paid an actual salary, commensurate with their monetary value, rather than being given tuition to a school they will never get a degree from. Will is right about the problem, but his hope that "embarrassing" the college athletic directors into better behavior will solve the problem is naive. People who see the fundamental problems with college sports must accept that the whole "student-athlete" paradigm is outdated and only a radical solution will make a real change.

LEST WE FORGET: Hold All Our Calls

Do you spend too much time blogging? Then this video may be your life.

Posted by Conn Carroll at October 26, 2006 12:50 PM