October 24, 2006

10/24: Lamont Loss Leader?

Even if Sen. Joe Lieberman (I-CT) keeps his lead to prevail over cable exec Ned Lamont (D) 11/7, lefty bloggers will always argue that the fight, and their 8/8 primary victory, were worth it. MyDD's Chris Bowers claims Lieberman's defeat convinced the beltway that the public's anger over Iraq could be tapped for electoral victory if only Dems would stand up and make the argument. If Bowers view does become conventional wisdom, what will the progressive movement champion next?

LANDSCAPE: Rahm's New Teachers

MyDD's Chris Bowers notes "thirteen months ago, Rahm Emanuel would not even mention Iraq when asked about the Democratic agenda" and then looks at results of the latest National Journal Insider Poll:

What issue will most motivate your party's base in the midterm elections?
Democrats:
War in Iraq: 42%
President Bush: 41%
GOP scandals: 8%
Dem agenda: 1%

Bowers argues: "The reason that there is near unanimity among "Democratic insiders" that they have to oppose Bush and the war ... is because of the Connecticut Senate primary. ... Ned Lamont's victory in that primary changed the direction of the Democratic Party in this election, and not just among a few blog fanatics. ... The war and Bush are not any less popular in October of 2006, when Democrats have decided to run on Iraq, than they were in October of 2005, when Democrats thought ignoring Iraq was the best option. The difference is that the progressive movement and Democratic base taught the Democratic leadership a much-needed lesson. If Democrats win in 2006, it will be our accomplishment, and it will be Ned's accomplishment."

Elsewhere, Talking Points Memo Josh Marshall takes issue with MSM stories highlighting the lack of a Dem "positive program of their own." Marshall comments: "Seldom has Washington conventional wisdom been a more obedient handmaiden to historical illiteracy. Let's say this once and for all, after a deep breath and for the record: In US politics, in off-year elections with unpopular incumbents it is always that way. Always."

LANDSCAPE II: Not Dead Yet

RedState's Leon Wolf picks out a few items to show "the GOP is showing signs that it might not be dead after all." Wolf notes "Burns has closed the gap on Tester," "the Maryland Senate race has really tightened up," and "Tom Reynolds has regained the lead in NY-24." Wolf concludes: "I think we hold at least TN, MO and MT at the end of the day."

Ankle Biting PunditsPatrick Hynes links to USA Today/Gallup numbers showing Dems leading the generic ballot 54%-41%, which Hynes notes is a lot closer than the 23% point margin in the wake of Foley. Hynes asks: "Is a pro-Republican surge in the offing? Or a backlash against the Democrats' pre-election triumphalism? Possibly."

Over at Pollster.com, Mark Blumenthal continues his look into the value of generic ballot polls this time focusing on measuring voter enthusiasm. Blumenthal concludes: "I have expressed skepticism in the past about the ability of opinion surveys to precisely predict levels of voter turnout, but the data above certainly argue that some sort of Democratic turnout advantage is likely this year. And as with the generic vote, these measures are worth watching closely on the final round of national surveys for signs of any last minute shifts."

IRAQ: Schadenfreude-a-thon

Talking Points Memo's Josh Marshall describes Washington Post and New York Times articles on evolving WH rhetoric on Iraq from "stay the course" to "flexibility" as "a veritable northeast corridor schadenfreudethon." Marshall continues: "Flexibility? I thought it was 'stay the course' versus 'cut and run'. One or the other. Who heard of 'flexibility'? That sounds so friggin' John Kerry." DailyKos' founder Markos Moulitsas argues the GOP dug their own grave on this one: "The funniest part of the whole mess is that "stay the course" was their own framing. It's their words. It's not like the Democrats outframed the GOP on this one. They outframed themselves."

On the right, Outside the Beltway hopes voters look beyond simple slogans: "It is fair to fault the administration ... over the years for failing to anticipate foreseeable events ... It's ridiculous, however, to pretend that campaign trail rhetoric represents the total depth of their strategic thinking. ... "Stay the course" is bumper sticker shorthand for continuing to work toward accomplishing the mission for which we set out three and a half years ago, in contrast with various withdrawal plans floated by opposition leaders. It does not mean, nor has it ever meant, "continue doing exactly what we're doing right now without any change."

Back on the left, a Truthdig letter written by Army Ranger/Arizona Cardinal Pat Tillman's brother Kevin Tillman is widely linked to. AMERICAblog highlights this passage: "Somehow, the same incompetent, narcissistic, virtueless, vacuous, malicious criminals are still in charge of this country. Somehow, this is tolerated. Somehow, nobody is accountable for this." TAPPED's Spencer Ackerman eagerly awaits "the right wing" push back against the Tillmans.

Nobody is happy with the NRCC over a mailer attacking Naval Reserve Officer Chris Carney (D) for his role in tieing Saddam Hussein to al-Qaaeda before the war. National Review Online's Andy McCarthy writes: "I worked with Chris Carney at the Pentagon when I was a consultant for Deputy Secretary Wolfowitz in 2004. Chris is a patriot who has done great service to our country, at great personal sacrifice. If this really is an RNC ad, the RNC should be ashamed." TAPPED's Spencer Ackerman also points out the hypocrisy of the NRCC's piece.

BLOGGERS VS. BELTWAY: How Not To Make Friends And Influence People In The Blogosphere

Rep. Marty Meehan (D-MA) gets singled out in the New York Timesreport on MyDD's Chris Bowers efforts to get all "non-endangered" Dem incumbents to give 30% of their CoH to Dem challengers. The article claims "though Mr. Meehan has been appearing at events and vigorously campaigning for other candidates, he has no immediate intention of giving more money." DailyKos' founder Markos Moulitsas doesn't think that's enough: "We're being asked to sacrifice for our party and for the future of our nation. Sorry, but given the choice between a campaign appearance or two by Marty Meehan and $1.5 million of his war chest, guess which one will get us closer to winning the House in two weeks?"

Back at MyDD, Bowers is "enraged" that GOP House incumbents have given at least $2.3M more to GOP challengers than Dems have: " Now, Republicans have a pay-to-play system where how much you donate to the NRCC is a factor in determining seniority in Congress. However, elections also have a pay to play system, where if you don't have a majority in the House, you can't get anything done, and you can't stop Bush's agenda. Safe Republicans are giving more than safe Democrats. Call safe Democrats in your state and tell them that.

On the other side of the aisle, Captain's Quarters picks up on a Washington Timesarticle showing Senate GOPers giving far less to '06 candidates than Dem counterparts: "Apparently, these Senators understand the stakes a little better than their counterparts across the aisle, and they have put their party in position to conduct a last-minute ad blitz to lift their candidates in tight races."

BLOGGERS VS. BELTWAY II: G-Bomb Proliferation

Right Wing News pick up on MyDD's Chris Bowers Googlebomb project and argues GOPers have more to gain than Dems from such a strategy:

While I was researching articles for this Googlebomb, I noticed something interesting: most Republican candidates, for whatever reason, already had at least one negative article up on the front page of Google. On the other hand, again, for whatever reason, it was not unusual for me to go 3 or 4 pages deep into some of these Democratic candidates without finding a single, negative, article about them. So, ironically, we may have a good opportunity to make a much bigger impact than the liberal bloggers with this Googlebomb. We'll see.

CT SEN: Lamont Might Not Deserve To Win

DailyKos' founder Markos Moulitsas optimistically looks at new ARG numbers showing cable exec Ned Lamont (D) trailing Sen. Joe Lieberman (I) 49%-37%: Schlesinger is surging, which this ARG poll started picking up. And he'll get more than 8 points. He should get 15 or so. ... But let's say Schlesinger does more poorly than that, and picks up only 3 more points from Republican voters at Lieberman's expense. That would leave Lamont with the task of taking three points from Lieberman's Democratic base. And if Lamont can't do that, he doesn't deserve to win."

There was also plenty of blogger coverage of 10/23's debate in New London, CT. Many linked to video of a pre-debate pro-Lamont parade featuring the Kiss Float. The unofficial Lamont Blog helped escort "some as--ole LaRouchites" who interrupted the debate. My Left Nutmeg's Branford Boy also reports Lieberman attacked Lamont off mic saying: "You goddamned son of a bitch, how dare you accuse me of voting for the Energy Bill because I got a contribution." Branford also loved gambler Alan Schlesinger's (R) line on Lieberman's promise to serve only three terms: "He meant he wanted to serve three terms as a Democrat and three terms as a Republican."

MyDD's Matt Stoller also attended and picked up on a disconnect between's Lieberman's ads and debate performance: "In the debate, he said that the situation only started getting worse in February. Yet in the primary debate, Lieberman said that "the situation in Iraq is a lot better." ... And he fully embraced his pro-war stance, in contrast to the ads he's been running about wanting to end the war and bring the troops home. It's clear that Joe will just say anything. He's a very very bad man."

Bloggers also hammered away at Lieberman's failure to provide documentation of the $387K in petty cash spent in the week before the primary. Firedoglake's Jane Hamsher posts video of Lamont campaign manager Tom Swan explaining the importance of the issue at a press conference and Stoller writes: "This is about integrity, and Joe's willingness to say anything and do anything to win. I expect him to counterattack with some meaningless piece of confusing disclosure argument against Ned, but Ned hasn't committed a crime. Did Joe? We don't know."

Finally, both Arianna Huffington and Stoller compare Lieberman descriptions of Iraq with Richard Nixon lines about Vietnam.

MI SEN: Every Little Bit Helps

RedState's Erick Erickson beseeches readers to help Oakland Co. Sheriff Mike Bouchard raise $15K from RedState readers.

MO SEN: Sadists For Talent

Michael J. Fox's stem cell ad for state Aud. Claire McCaskill (D) stirred controversy with help from conservative talk-show host Rush Limbaugh. Crooks and Liars has audio of Rush saying: "I stated when I saw the ad, I was commenting to you about it, that he was either off the medication or he was acting. He is an actor, after all." Crooks comments: "Despicable, just despicable." The Plank's Jonathan Cohn tracks down a Dr. who explains Fox is demonstrating side effects in the commercial, and points out: "The actor could have said stem cells will lead to a Parkinson's cure, but he said merely that it gives patients hope -- which is accurate."

Righty bloggers still found the ad exploitive. Townhall's Dean Barnett: "The most distasteful aspect of the ad is the way it exploits Michael J. Fox's physical difficulties. Fox is an actor, and clearly knew what he was doing when he signed up for the spot - no victim points for him for having been manipulated by the McCaskill campaign. The ad's aim is to make us feel so bad about Fox's condition that logical debate is therefore precluded. You either agree with Fox, or you sadistically endorse his further suffering as Fox accuses Jim Talent of doing."

Right Wing News ads: "the amount of misinformation of embryonic stem cells out there is absolutely staggering. Basically, you have desperate people like Fox and Nancy Reagan out there pushing embryonic stem cells because they've been told that it may be a miracle cure for Alzheimer's and Parkinson's disease. But, the hard, cold reality is that embryonic stem cells have never cured anything in a human and it's entirely possible that they never will."

TN SEN: Apparently, Ford's From TN

Atrios caught a clip of the Rep. Harold Ford Jr. (D-09)/ex=Chattanooga mayor Bob Corker (R) debate and noticed: "Ford sure has amped up his Tenn. accent compared to how he's sounded in the past."

And on the right TN's View From The Porch caught Ford at a gun range in TN, but was not impressed: "He didn't score a lot of points with the range staff, who complained afterwards that he seemed to be distracted and in a hurry during the mandatory safety briefing. ... Come to think about it, he didn't ask me for mine, either."

VA SEN: George Allen, Blogger

Sen. George Allen (R) blogs at RedState claiming: "Congress doesn't have a revenue problem. It has a spending problem." Before touting his support for a "Taxpayers' Bill of Rights" Allen celebrates the blogosphere as "a powerful new branch of the media - burst onto the scene and swiftly became an integral part of our American laboratory of ideas."

Many righties also picked up on the Washington Timesstory down playing ex-Navy Sec. James Webb's role in fighting for the inclusion an African-American soldier in the Vietnam memorial statue. Power Line, Captain's Quarters, and AllenHQ all comment.

On the left DailyKos' founder Markos Moulitsas looks at 10/23's Mason-Dixon poll showing ex-Navy Sec. James Webb (D) trailing Sen. George Allen (R) 47%-43% and reaches back to 2005 for some good Webb news: "Just days before the election, M-D's last poll of the race had Kaine up 45-44. Then, the ground game went into operation, with the Dems facing off against the RNC's vaunted 72-hour program. The final result? Kaine won 52-46. Virginia Dems aren't slouches, and will give Webb a fighting chance so long as he keeps this race close."

Not Larry Sabato posts an "October Surprise" to sink Allen's campaign, claiming: "Allen's Property Tax Assessment in January $589,000; Allen's Property Sold in May (4 months later) for 1.1 MILLION; Sold to Campaign Contributor." The A-Team isn't impressed: "George Allen sold property for almost double its assessed value. Shocking!!! ... In less than 5 years, my home has more than doubled in price. In fact, given that we are reassessed every year, this past year alone saw an increase in assessed value of nearly $100K."

THOUGHT OF THE DAY: Oops

Matthew Yglesisas looks at the unintended consequences of the recording industry pushed Digital Millennium Copyright Act and and the success of the iPod:

[I]f you went out and bought an iPod, and then you wanted to legally acquire some music for it, the only place you could turn was the iTunes Music Store. And, once you'd built up a library of songs purchased through the iTunes Music Store, the only place you can play the songs is . . . on an iPod. So if when your iPod's battery dies, you think to yourself "f--k this, I'm going to buy a different company's player," well, doing that will require you to re-buy all your music. So you buy another iPod, and you buy more music and you're further and further locked-in. Even better, the Digital Millennium Copyright Act makes it illegal for a rival firm to construct a player capable of playing legally owned iTunes Music Store files. This is a great deal for Apple who, in virtue of being first, gets to entrench its advantage deeper-and-deeper but it's not very smart legislation.

Even weirder, using Digital Rights Management to produce this sort of circular lock-in wasn't Apple's initial plan for the music store. Instead, they wound up incorporating the DRM features that are key to their business model at the insistence of the record companies, who haven't actually accomplished anything for themselves (it's still very easy to illegally download MP3 files) while accidentally creating a new music industry juggernaut.

LEST WE FORGET: Now We Get It!

Do you often find marginally humorous items 10 times funnier after they have been matter of factly explained to you? Then you'll love Joe Mathlete Explains Today's Marmaduke in 500 words or less. Recent entries include:

• Marmaduke likes to let the neighborhood kids use his indoor pool. It is possible that Marmaduke's doghouse defies the laws of physics and has a larger interior than exterior, or has a trap door that leads to a large underground cavern/living space, but most likely Marmaduke just has a teeny tiny pool and the neighborhood kids have low thresholds for entertainment.
• Marmaduke is interrogated by Owner-Man about an inflammatory dog-authored diatribe that was published in that day's newspaper, as if he is the only dog in town who would write a letter to the editor. Marmaduke resents the implication, so he ignores the question and keeps napping in Owner-Man's chair.
• Marmaduke creator Brad Anderson is proving he is still relevant in the 21st century by tempering his usual blend of phantom humor and obtuse logic with a reference to a hit television program of which he possesses a vague awareness.
• Marmaduke is playing see-saw with some area children. As he is humongous, he is kicking the living shit out of them; unless they find a really fat kid for their team, Marmaduke is going to get another shutout.

Posted by Conn Carroll at October 24, 2006 12:42 PM