10/18: Paternity Testing

If victory does indeed have many fathers, a Dem triumph this 11/7 is going to require a hell of a paternity test. MyDD's Chris Bowers continues a series of posts 10/17 arguing that the netroots role "preaching to the choir" has been a significant factor in Dem voter enthusiasm for the '06 cycle. If current trends continue, and Dems pick up wins in races like CA-11, ID-01, and WY-AL the Bowers netroots will have another strong argument that their expansion of the field was a significant factor in helping Dems take back the House. But do the netroots have a governing agenda for the next two years? One lefty blogger was pleasantly surprised to find out Rep. Nancy Pelosi (D-CA) even had one. If the netroots do establish themselves as key to Dem success, what will their policy agenda look like?

BLOGGERS VS. BELTWAY: The Origin Of Everything That Is Good In The World

MyDD's Chris Bowers claims "every improvement Democrats have made since 2004, from fundraising, to the fifty-state strategy, even to making Republican scandals stick to the media, finds its origin within the netroots and the progressive movement." Bowers goes on to look at Pew polling on voter enthusiasm for '06 compared to previous cycles and writes: "It does not at all strike me as coincidental that the increase in Democratic voter enthusiasm took place concurrently with the rise of progressive media." Bowers concludes: "We expanded the playing field. We fired up the base. If the netroots and the progressive movement never appeared on the scene, the entire Democratic infrastructure would probably still be focused exclusively on about 10% of the electorate. Once again, the netroots and the progressive movement have made the difference."

In a similar vein, DailyKos' founder Markos Moulitsas looks at the DCCC's "emerging races" and "red to blue" program and lists the candidates the netroots supported before anyone in DC: From red to blue: PA-07, PA-08, NJ-07, and NH-02. From emerging races: WA-08, CA-11, NY-29, NC-08, CO-05, IL-10, MN-01, and ID-01. Markos comments:

So far, looking far better than any of us would've ever dared hope when we put together this list. If our goal was to expand the playing field and fly the Democratic banner in places that hadn't seen it in a long time, we have already succeeded. Of course, success raises expectations. It no longer is enough just to be competitive in these tough districts, in these long-shot races. Now, we want to win them. As usual, we're responding to success by moving the goal posts.

Later, Markos can't resist whacking Beltway types that doubted the power of the netroots. Kos quotes Stu Rothenberg from 1/05: "Blogger Chris Bowers at MyDD perhaps is the best example of how clueless some bloggers really are about politics. ... he insists "we need to attack everywhere." Markos comments: "But man, doesn't that Rothenberg column look and sound idiotic nowadays? I assume Stu knows better now."

BLOGGERS VS. BELTWAY II: Dems Have Secret Plan To Rule The Country

Talking Points Memo's Josh Marshall looks forward to "the subpoena power that has the White House shaking in its boots" should Dems win in Nov., but he is more hopeful for the victory's affect on "on the psyche of Democrats." Marshall writes: "After the last six years, it will have a deep effect on the perceptions of both parties. And with a party that has based on so much on bluff, confidence and force, that could be a very big deal."

Others on the left are less concerned about pysche and more about policy. At The Huffington Post, Miles Mogulescu was happily surprised to find out from fellow HuffPoerHilary Rosen that Rep. Nancy Pelosi (D-CA) actually has "a plan for the First 100 Hours of a Democratic Congress" including "Day One: Put new rules in place to "break the link between lobbyists and legislation ... Day Two: "Enact all the recommendations made by the commission that investigated the terrorist attacks of Sept. 11, 2001. ... Time remaining until 100 hours: "Raise the minimum wage to $7.25 an hour; cut the interest rate on student loans in half; allow the government to negotiate directly with the pharmaceutical companies for lower drug prices for Medicare patients; broaden the types of stem cell research allowed with federal funds, etc." Mogulescu comments:

Here's my question: Why IS THIS THE FIRST I'VE HEARD OF THIS PROGRAM? WHY AREN'T DEMOCRATS RUNNING ON IT? IS IT SUPPOSED TO BE SOME KIND OF SECRET? I checked out Pelosi's own website and couldn't even find a mention of this proposal. ... Top Democratic leaders should immediately hold a national press conference announcing their 100 Hour Program. They should talk about it in speeches and press interviews. Democrats should run on it in local races throughout the country.

Over at Talk Left, Big Tent Democrat offers guidelines for a possible Dem agenda:

• (1)Start with the most popular programs that Republicans have sought to stymie.
  For example, stem cell research. For another example, the minimum wage.


• (2) On Iraq, start with accountability, NOT plans. Demand answers. Do not start with solutions. Demand victory plans, not exit plans.


• (3) Do be prepared for a titanic fight - the Supreme Court if Stevens leaves us.

BLOGGERS VS. BELTWAY III: 3293 Kossacks Can't Be Wrong

Daily Kos' diarist Benito reports Blog Active's Mike Rodgers "outed" Sen. Larry Craig (R-ID) on Ed Schultz Radio Show. Benito then asks Kossacks: "Do you agree with outing Gay Republicans?" 69% of 4714 Kossacks voted yes.

LANDSCAPE: It Ain't Over Till Rosie O'Donnell Sings

A fresh round of doubt about Dems imminent takeover of congress surfaced through out out the blogosphere. TPM Cafe's Matt Corley notes that of the top 60 competitive House races the GOP candidates had a cash advantage in 41 of them. RCP Blog's Jay Cost looks at cash on hand numbers for 18 Dem challengers of GOP incumbents currently in Charlie Cook's toss-up category and finds "5 of these 18 candidates seem to have some problems. I think it could really matter for 4 of the 5."

Also at RCP BlogJohn McIntyre links to his updated House rankings and reports that GOP prospects in the Northeast have improved: "Of those six seats (CT-2, CT-4, CT-5, PA-6, PA-7, PA-8) the GOP is actually in a position to potentially hold all six and could easily keep their losses to only two. Weldon and Shays appear the most vulnerable of that group on our list." Captain's Quarters casts doubt on Star Tribune polling in MN-06 noting that the poll's sample "for the district consisted of 58% women."

The left's Eric Alterman at Media Matters is also not at all convinced Dems will prevail arguing: "National polls never matter much, but they matter less than ever in an off-year election where districts are drawn to look like pretzels and money can either increase or depress turnout, whatever is needed. The Republican structural advantage is both categories is more powerful than the feelings of voters across the land, I fear." Kausfiles links and notes: "Alterman even lashes out at the Congressional Black Caucus. ("Seventy-percent victories are not enough for them ...") He has more in common with Marty Peretz than he realizes!"

CT SEN: Payback's A Bolton

Lefty bloggers highlighted Sen. Joe Lieberman's (I-CT) support for UN Amb. John Bolton as further indication of Lieberman's intention exact "retribution" on Dems. MyDD's Matt Stoller noted Lieberman's support for Bolton's nomination was odd since the "nomination is dead" and explained the move as "Joe Lieberman slapping Chris Dodd and the Democratic Party in the face. ... In other words, Joe is angry and vindictive, and is starting his retribution early." Firedoglake's Christy Hardin Smith described Lieberman's Bolton support as "yet another F-U to the Democratic Party." Also at firedoglake, Jane Hamsher wonders why Dems "aren't more offended just on general principle by Joe Lieberman smacking them around and publicly humiliating them on a daily basis."

MD SEN: Apparently Michael Steele Is Black

Righty bloggers took offense to Rep. Steny Hoyer's (D-05) Rep. Ben Cardin (D-03) 10/17 campaign stop. RCP Blog's Tom Bevan writes: "Did the number two Democrat in the House of Representatives (who is white) really tell a Maryland crowd that Republican Senate candidate Michael Steele (who is black) has had "a career of slavishly supporting the Republican Party?" Unbelievably, the answer is "yep." RedState's Erick Erickson was also offended.

MI SEN: Uh, Yes

Townhall's Mary Katharine Ham links to a video for Oakland Co. Sheriff Mike Bouchard and asks: "Am I a total sucker because the Van Halen is doin' it for me?"

RedState's Jeff Emanuel also has video of a "good, issues-oriented negative ad from a good candidate."

OH SEN: Should They Stay, Or Should They GO?

Via a "Democratic strategist who is in regular contact with the local Ohio networks" TPM Cafe's Greg Sargent reports "the NRSC has no more air time reserved" in OH and "the RNC has indeed reserved some $2.4 million in air time between now and election day. But here's the rub: The source adds that networks are reporting that only around $700,000 of that time has been actually paid for by the RNC."

VA SEN: An Editorial A Blogger Could Have Written

Ex-Navy Sec. James Webb's (D) Netroots Coordinator and Raising Kaine founder Lowell Feld finds 10/18's Washington Post endorsement of Webb "striking" since the Post "has a centrist, corporate, "mainstream" editorial page that tends to love the status quo, including incumbents." Feld also quotes the editorial on Sen. George Allen (R): "his legislative contributions have been marginal at best. He is no one's idea of a heavyweight in the Senate." Feld comments: "Ouch! The truth hurts, no? But wow, that's something Raising Kaine could have written!"

Also at Raising Kaine, DanG attacks Allen aide Dick Wadhams' defense of Allen's use of League of Women Voters debate footage in an ad. Wadhams claims Team Webb first broke the agreement since Raising Kaine "which receives funding from the Webb campaign" posted video of the debate first. DanG responds: "First of all, has the Allen Campaign really sunk to the point that it's comparing itself to an activist-run blog? Seriously, that's pathetic dude. ... Raising Kaine itself does not receive funding from the Webb Campaign. How many times do we have to say this? Lowell and Josh work for Webb, and they receive payment. I don't. ... As a matter of fact, a vast majority of the people who organize this site have never seen a dime from Jim Webb."

Still at Raising Kaine, Feld posts photos of "Military Women Strongly Endors[ing] Jim Webb." At the official AllenHQ describes Webb's claim of responsibility for the increase of billets available to women as "nothing more than resume-padding and ego-fluffing." Finally, The A-Team and Right Wing News both attack Webb for including a scene in one of his novels that reads like "a Mark Foley Instant Message."

DEM FIELD: Ummm, Hasn't Markos Been Talking About This For Months Now?

Prompted by an email from a reader "who'd gotten a campaign solicitation from a 2008 aspirant pleading for money for a race this year they're running away with" Talking Points Memo's Josh Marshall asks "So, of all the worthies now in the field for 2008, how much are they giving to those House challengers who, just maybe if the wave is big enough, could actually win?"

KERRY: Not So Bad

TPM Cafe's Reed Hundt argues: "No one should underestimate John Kerry's plausibility as the comeback kid. He has the money; he has learned from experience; he has paid the dues of candidates in this election; he even stood against Senator Joe, ... John may have taken his time to get where he is, but his current location on the political map is not so bad."

At TPM, reader MB defends Kerry's record giving to Dem House candidates: "JK has been working his ass off for both Senate and House candidates. For example: Patrick Murphy -- $145,000. Darcy Burner -- $25,000. Tammy Duckworth -- $185,000. Honestly, I can't think of any sitting member of Congress in my lifetime who has done as much for congressional candidates, whether in an off-year election or not.

BLOGGERS VS. MSM: Now It's Personal

Talking Points Memo's Josh Marshall passes along thoughts from a former colleague of Sen. Harry Reid (D-NV) unreported land deal revealer John Solomon: ""I worked [X] years in the same office as Solomon, sometimes with him. The consensus: he's lazy, and takes hit jobs handed him on a platter by opps research teams (and anyone will do.) And doesn't do much to clean it up." Marshall comments: "On Reid, I think it's a combination of two things. One, as I said, he's an easy mark for oppo researchers peddling stuff that other journos didn't think met the laugh test. And two, he hasn't really landed a punch yet and Reid's fought back. So now it's a bit personal."

THOUGHT OF THE DAY: Willie Nelson To Join Canadian Army

Prompted by reports of Canadian troop troubles fighting the Taliban among "10-foot-tall marijuana plants" TAPPED's Robert Farley writes:

In all seriousness, the Canadian mission in Afghanistan has grown increasingly controversial as Canadian troops have begun to suffer casualties disproportionate to the size of the deployment. In a recent poll, 59 percent of Canadians said that the war in Afghanistan could not be won, numbers more or less in line with U.S. popular attitudes on Iraq. The same poll revealed some downright hostile attitudes towards the Bush administration, the war on terror, and the U.S. position in Iraq. ... A portion of this decline is undoubtedly in response to the worsening situation on the ground there. However, resentment toward the United States for the invasion of Iraq and perception that the U.S. has failed to properly support the Afghan operation have almost certainly contributed to some disillusionment.

LEST WE FORGET: No Joy In Metville

For Mets fan and TNR contributor Jill Greenberg, baseball season is bringing back some unfortunate memories:

The NLCS feels like the equivalent of the 2000 election, to quote a friend "nasty, brutish and too long." Like the Democrats, Mets fans were hopeful, even optimistic. We were the favored horses, things were going to be tight -- this everyone knew. The NLDS was the equivalent of the early exit polls on election night, things were looking good. ... But we know now that the polls might have been overly optimistic. As in, a 4-2-loss-and-the-brink-of-elimination optimistic.

Let's examine the players in each of these sagas. Is Tom Glavine the Al Gore of the Mets? No one thought either one of them could lose; Glavine with his record, Al Gore with his Vice Presidency. We thought we could ride Glavine to victory, as the Dems did with Gore in 2000. Both assumptions have proven questionable. El Duque's injury, an unknown factor that could have completely changed the course of events for the Mets, can be compared to Teresa's LePore's poorly designed butterfly ballot. The failure to have the foresight to pick up Barry Zito before the end of the trading deadline is the equivalent of the Democrats not picking former Florida Senator Bob Graham as Vice President. And Pedro Martinez? Kind of like Joe Lieberman -- seemed like a good idea in theory, but ultimately added little to the mix.