October 17, 2006

10/17: Iraq Water Torture

Two weeks ago, many thought the "drip, drip" of the Mark Foley scandal would do in the GOP. And while the scandal has definitely hurt, even righty stalwarts like Fred Barnes are admitting steady bad news from Iraq will probably do in the GOP on 11/7. But where does that leave U.S. policy Nov. 8? As David Weigelargues , any Dem majorities in the House and Senate will depend on Dems who won in conservative districts running "against voter malaise and Iraq war conduct, as opposed to the idea of the Iraq war."

LANDSCAPE: It's Iraq, Stupid

At The Huffington Post, Cenk Uygur looks at recent headlines from Iraq including "161 dead. 83 dead. 53 dead. 16 tortured. 17 decapitated. Shiite doctors dumping the bodies of Sunni patients they have murdered. Burn marks. Executions. Torture chambers. Revenge killings. Family members shot in front of their wives and children." Uygur concludes: "George W. Bush will live in infamy for what he has done in Iraq."

Daily Kos' DemFromCT looks at CNN's latest poll showing only 34% of Americans support the war. DFT writes: "Remember when the election predictors said a month ago that if the discussion is about national security and gas prices, the GOP wins and if it's about Iraq, the GOP loses? The national discussion isn't just about Iraq, it's about how bad things really are in Iraq."

Jonathan Chait at The Plank "had been harboring some doubt" about Dem chances for success until he read Fred Barnes "throw in the towel" in The Weekly Standard. Chait highlights this Barnes sentence, "And it changed the narrative of the campaign from one emphasizing national security, a Republican strength, to one emphasizing Republican malfeasance in Washington and dysfunction in Iraq," and writes: "If we translate that statement, then, it actually means that national security as an abstract proposition is a Republican strength, but national security as it has actually been conducted is a Republican liability."

Following up on his earlier ReasonarticleHit and Run 's David Weigel argues that "if Democrats win power next month, they'll do it on the backs of very conservative candidates." Weigel notes: "Democrats in tight races in Indiana, Ohio, Pennsylvania, and the rest of the swing districts are mostly running against voter malaise and Iraq war conduct, as opposed to the idea of the Iraq war."

Finally, Daily Kos' Georgia10 lauds journalist Jane Arraf for "pushing back against the right-wing assault on the media's coverage of Iraq." Also Iraq Body Count offers their own criticism of the Lancet Iraqi death toll study.

LANDSCAPE II: What Is Instapundit's Place?

Conservative talk show host Rush Limbaughsingled outInstapundit 10/16 for aiding "Drive-By Media Democrats" efforts to "depress and suppress the Republican base." JoeUser.com's Draginol is with Instapundit: "My view is the same as Glenn Reynolds. The Republicans blew it. They became complacent and ignored their constituents. If they lose, I do think they lost because they deserved to lose." Instapundit adds: "I can't be a "RINO" because I've never claimed to be a Republican. I wouldn't mind if the GOP won this time -- but as I said, they don't really deserve it."

Meanwhile, RNC chair Ken Mehlman was busy reassuring righty bloggers including Power Line's Paul Mirengoff that there are four reasons the GOP will "keep control of the Senate and probably the House as well" including:

• First, he and other Republican leaders "expected this" and planned for it.
• Second, the Republicans have a major advantage when it comes to resources. According to Mehlman, it has a $55.8 million cash advantage now, which will translate into very aggressive ad campaigns in the final three weeks.
• Third, the party and its candidates should be able to frame this election as a choice election, not a referendum.
• Finally, Mehlman noted that "tsunami" elections are characterized by one-sided turnout in favor of one party. He doesn't see the Dems benefiting from that this year. In fact, he says, in 36 of 39 Democratic primaries this year turnout was below average. Mehlman said he's always worried about turnout, but does not expect a big Democratic advantage.

National Review Online's Jim Geraghty already looking forward to the post-Hastert era: "The conservative base wants the next crop of GOP leaders to be tougher on illegal immigration; tougher on spending; quitting the pork and earmark addiction cold turkey; ... One way or another, Hastert's out. I suspect that next year, guys like Mike Pence, Jeff Flake and Jack Kingston are going to leading a more conservative House caucus - particularly if the Chris Shayses of the world get knocked out this year.

Finally, Ankle Biting PunditsPatrick Hynes worries that if the GOP does lose "the Religious Right will be blamed by the talking heads who get to decide these things." Hynes continues: "It's not like we're very welcome inside the so-called "big tent" anymore (were we ever, really?). I mean, folks like Ryan Sager and Dick Armey have essentially stated: It's us or them; not exactly a "big tent" sentiment. ... It's a lose-lose for the Religious Right. Either they stay home and get blamed for not helping the Republicans or they turnout in great numbers again, but other voter subgroups stay home, and the Religious Right gets blamed for suppressing other GOP-friendly voters."

CT SEN: Lefty Bloggers Love Schlesinger

MyDD's Matt Stoller and CT Blog were among many to liveblog 10/16's debate between Sen. Joe Lieberman (I), cable exec Ned Lamont (D) and gambler Alan Schlesinger (R). Lefty bloggers with new found love for Schlesinger include:

• Matt Stoller at MyDD: "There is just no question that Alan Schlesinger won this debate, Lamont pretty much held his own, and Lieberman lost. Alan Schlesinger was funny, interesting, and passionate."
• The unofficial Lamont Blog: "General emerging consensus... Ned hit Joe on the issues, Ned looked the most Senatorial of the three, Schlesinger will rise in the polls after this performance."
• firedoglake's Jane Hamsher: "Finally. A Republican with the stones to tell Joe Lieberman to get off his damn lawn. Alan Schlesinger kicked Lieberman's ass for the GOP vote he so critically needs to win, and Lamont gave him no quarter on the Democratic side (and looked very senatorial in the process)."

DailyKos' founder Markos Moulitsas hopes Schlesinger's immigration position will peal away "white, ethnic, blue collar workers" from Lieberman and Hamsher celebrates the return of the "Kiss Float."

After the debate Spazeboy ambushed Lieberman in a staircase asking: "Would you unequivocally caucus with the Democrats?" Lieberman answered: "Oh, come on. I've said that 1200 times." When Spazeboy pressed, Lieberman responded: "Yes. Yes!" Spazeboy then writes: "Senator Lieberman and I were both caught off guard here, but that's no reason to be so pompous and dismissive. He may have answered it 1200 times, but at that point, what difference will it make that I've asked him for the 1201st time?"

Still in CT, Stoller postspics of a Republican Jewish Coalition flier quoting former Dem Dr. Jeff Weinstein "Today's Democratic Party Is Not My Father's Democratic Party."

MO SEN: Coming To Liddy's Rescue?

TPM Cafe's Greg Sargent reports that according to recent FEC filings, the RNC "sank $731,968.29 into negative ads and "research" (read: dirt-digging) against Dem challenger Claire McCaskill." Sargent sees this as another sign "of talk in political circles to the effect that the Republican National Committee is stepping into key Senate races because it doesn't think the NRSC is up to the job of winning them."

MT SEN: No, They're Saying Booooo-urns

After quoting Sen. Conrad Burns' (R) website "Senator Burns has been able to bring in over $2 billion in federal funds to the state since he took office. He has been a champion of a fiscally conservative government..." National Review Online's John Miller can't resist passing along this reader email: "Parading your two billion in pork + "I'm a fiscal conservative" = Loser"

DailyKos' founder Markos Moulitsas also has two MT items up 10/16: one celebrating State Senate Pres. Jon Tester's (D) record breaking fundraising effort this quarter; and another with video of Tester's new ad featuring Gov. Schweitzer gently poking fun at Tester's haircut.

OH SEN: Do Any Bloggers Believe The NYT?

DailyKos' founder Markos Moulitsas finds reports of GOP pull out in OH "about as credible as word that Lieberman had given up on a ground game for the CT Democratic primary. That is, not very credible at all."

Watching CNN, The Plank's Michael Crowley notes "Stuart Rothenberg said talk of the GOP writing off the Ohio Senate race is "just wrong." Talking Points Memo's Josh Marshall does not pass judgment on the veracity of the New York Times story, but he does caution: "A short on Brown v. DeWine. When we say that the RNC has written off Sen. DeWine (R) in Ohio, no one should take that to mean that the race is over."

PA SEN: Environmental Groups For $100, Alex

National Review Online's Alex Charyna highlights a moment from 10/16's Sen. Rick Santorum (R)/Treas. Bob Casey Jr. (D) debate: "Santorum and the panel had stumped Casey a few times with questions, but Bobby Casey actually stumped himself once. In an exchange about environmental group endorsements (League of Conservation Voters and Sierra Club), Mr Casey had claimed that a GOP environmental group had given the Senator a 0% rating. When pressed for the name, he said he couldn't remember! That's the least he could have done!"

TN SEN: Harold Ford, Bone-Tosser

Captain's Quarters notes that despite the fact that "people have derided the Republican efforts to establish tough border security and hard-line policies on illegal immigration as simple election-year rhetoric ... Harold Ford, running for Bill Frist's open seat in Tennessee, has positioned himself to the right of the GOP Senate caucus." CQ concludes: "For a right-wing partisan bone-tosser, immigration suddenly has gained a lot of political luster after the passage of the Secure Fence Act. ... Voters who buy the election-eve conversions of Ford and other Democrats into immigration hawks will be in for a huge surprise. Ford voted against more border agents while in Congress."

VA SEN: Screw Who?

Ex-Navy Sec. James Webb's (D) Netroots Coordinator and Raising Kaine founder Lowell Feld describes the Sen. George Allen (R) campaign as "desperate" and "pathetic" for issuing a press release demanding Webb return $130K to Daily Kos. The release notes that after the mutilation and burning of four American contractors in Fallujah, DailyKos' founder Markos Moulitsas wrote: "I feel nothing over the death of mercenaries ... Screw them."

Feld explains: "But now, the Allen campaign, devoid of any issues or accomplishments to brag about, has resorted to a campaign strategy of attacking a blogger, who they strangely claim is "fringe." Well, if he's "fringe," then why do they spend time attacking him? ... For the record, I totally disagree with the sentiments behind the "screw them" comment, as do most Democrats. ... Meanwhile, I wonder how much money the ALLEN campaign has raised from its "fringe" RIGHT-WING blogs. Have you ever gone to sites like Little Green Footballs, Free Republic, or Michelle Malkin? Does Dick Wadhams really want to have some of the comments from THOSE sites highlighted all over the place?"

Also on Raising Kaine: Feld has pictures from ex-Gov. Mark Warner's campaign stop with Webb in Springfield, VA; PMconnects Allen to Grover Norquist and Big Tobacco; and Ericposts pdf's of "Had Enough" fliers featuring Sen. Barack Obama (D-IL), Rep. Bobby Scott (D-03), and Warner.

On the right, The A-Team has video of Allen's two minute address with Sen. John Warner (R) and the official AllenHQ asks why "the Media" is letting Webb get away with "blatant lies" about college funding, body armor, stock options, and Allen's record on taxes.

OBAMA: Is The Oprah Primary Over Already?

The Huffington Post's Richard Greene argues Sen. Barack Obama's '04 speech at the Dem Conv. "proved that he has what it takes to be a phenomenal President. Just that one speech." Also at HuffPo, Dan Carol "is more than Ok" with an Obama run and notes that Oprah told Larry King two weeks ago that she wanted Obama to run.

KERRY: For Caution And Indecisiveness

TAPPED's Ezra Klein acknowledges that Sen. John Kerry's (D-MA) interview with Bob Woodward was "overdue" but still likes Kerry's "I'll get all the smart people, lock 'em in a room, and not feed 'em till they finish" attitude towards governance." Klein reasons: "Moreover, Kerry's reflections and ideas bespeak a caution that sounds comforting to me. It might create a sort of indecisiveness, hearing from and listening to that many people, but I would vastly prefer an administration in slight awe of the scale of these issues to one dead set on denying their complexity."

MCCAIN: Forthright Hypocrisy Will Be The Frontrunner

Kausfiles notes Sen. John McCain (R-AZ) aide John Weaver's attack on Sen. Hillary Clinton (D-NY) "for trying to have it both ways" on torture and argues: "But of course McCain wants to have it both ways too. He also approves torture in the "ticking time bomb" situation--he just doesn't want to write the exception into the law, arguing instead for a clear standard that "might be violated in extraordinary circumstances." Tediously fastidious legalism or forthright hypocrisy? I'd say it's a close question!"

But the right's MI Cooler looks at "poll after poll" showing McCain likely to be the GOP nominee and writes: "Who is going to nominate Sam Brownback or Mitt Romney in the age of terror? Who is going to say that Huckabee is better than John McCain on foreign issues? The Cooler likes Sam Brownback on social issues, but no one can dispute Senator McCain's national security credentials. As long as we are at war, John McCain will be the frontrunner.

ROMNEY: Wonder What He Means By "Advancing The Foundation Of Family"

Right Angle Blog's Robert Bluey reports MA Gov. Mitt Romney swung through DC 10/16 for a "luncheon speech to nearly 400 fans and admirers who packed a Capitol Hill restaurant to hear his message." RNC chair Ken Mehlman told lunchers there was "no more sought-after speaker than Mitt Romney" among Republicans these days. Romney's agenda included:

• 1) fighting Islamic jihadists
• 2) making sure the U.S. keeps pace with the emerging superpowers in Asia
• 3) battling spending increases in Washington, D.C.
• 4) reducing America's reliance on foreign oil
• 5) advancing cultural issues, such as the sanctity of life and the foundation of family

FOLEY: Excuses Are Like Noses

TPM Muckraker's Paul Kiel is keeping an amusing tally of GOP excuses for cancelling Speaker Denny Hastert (R-IL) and Rep. Tom Reynolds (R-NY) fundraisers.

WELDON: At Least He Didn't Blame Mel Gibson

The Spin's Stephen Morse interviewed Rep. Curt Weldon (R-PA) outside of his Penn Israel Coalition 10/16 campaign stop about the FBI's raid of his daughter's house. In the video: "Weldon alleges that the source of the news about him is Melanie Sloan, a former associate of John Conyers and Charles Schumer. She is currently the executive director of CREW. He also says that people such as Sandy Berger (former head of the NSA) and Mary McCarthy have donated to Sestak's campaign and are working to bring him down as revenge for his criticisms."

National Review Online's Kathryn Jean Lopez reports on one political observer's guess on where GOP optimism was this November: "I think they got taken away in some of those boxes taken out of Curt Weldon's daughter's house yesterday."

THOUGHT OF THE DAY: Ain't Nothing Goin' On But The Rent

In asking MyDD readers for $3k to fund his coverage of CT SEN through election day Matt Stoller writes:

It's an interesting experience to ask for money, because it brings out some very weird tendencies in the progressive movement, many of which I notice within myself. The right doesn't wonder about asking for money; they know that being paid is critical to sustaining a movement. If people can't afford rent, they stop doing what they are doing and find something that allows them to afford rent. Getting used to this principle is important, and as a movement we're slowly starting to.

LEST WE FORGET: As Esquire Goes ...

Kausfiles pokes fun at Bob Geiger's Huffington Post entry titled "Even Esquire Magazine Calls for a Democratic Senate." Kaus snarks: "Wow. When New York City magazine editors start tilting Democratic, you know the GOPs are in trouble."

Posted by Conn Carroll at October 17, 2006 12:31 PM