10/16: Schadenfreude City

There are few things that please the Blogometer more than the Washington Post sports section the morning after a humiliating Redskins loss. For the past two cycles, those on the right who share similar questionable tastes have had the pleasure of feasting on lefty blogger reaction to demoralizing defeats. Now that it looks like the shoe is on the other foot, Schadenfreude-loving lefties don't have to wait 'til Election Day to find righty soul searching. Despite the time between now and Election Day, Instapundit already has a "GOP Pre-Mortum" receiving plenty of comment around the blogosphere. So if you are left-leaning Redskins fan, put down the Post and take solace in the right's coming troubles.

LANDSCAPE: No Time For Losers

Inspired by Power Line's John Hinderaker's admission that the latest polling data showed "a sea of blue, with the Democratic candidate leading in just about every race for every office, nationwide" Instapundit penned "A GOP Pre-Mortum" looking at unforced errors that led to impending defeat:

• The Terri Schiavo affair: The bitterness it aroused, which was substantial, opened a fracture in the GOP coalition: Social-conservatives against the rest.
• The Harriet Miers debacle: Plenty of warning in the blogs that this was a big mistake, but all ignored by the White House and Congressional leadership.
• The Dubai Ports disaster: Here I think that the Administration was on defensible ground from a policy perspective, but its ham-handed approach -- once again ignoring early warnings from the blogs -- turned it into a mess, and cost it major credibility with its national security constituency.
• Immigration: Another unforced error. The national security constituency once again lost faith in the Administration.
• William Jefferson: A Democratic Congressman is caught in a bribery scandal with a freezer full of cash, and Dennis Hastert backs him up, making clear that protection of insider privilege is more important to the Republican leadership in Congress than either party or principle.
• Foleygate: Not much of a scandal in itself, but the last straw for a lot of people.

Instapundit later adds reader opinion that Pres. Bush's "War on Terror" incompetence also has cost him support including:

As part of the conservative 'base,' I am disappointed in the administration for not being MORE agressive in fighting the war...it reminds me of the speech by George C Scott in Patton..."Americans love a winner and will not tolerate a loser"...I think that the Republicans could remain in power if they showed more outward signs of strength in the matters of North Korea, Iran and Iraq. If we were fighting to 'win', I think the average american would back the president and congress.

Many on the right were eager to add to the list:

• Captain's Quarters: "I see these as overblown issues for the most part, and only with immigration does Glenn get to the point. The Republicans in Congress have damaged the enthusiasm of their base because they have dropped the issues that mattered most to it. ... When Bush took office, the base expected the GOP to take off the shackles and really begin to reduce the federal government in significant ways. ... That did not happen."
• Power Line's Paul Mirengoff: "Though Glenn is hardly the only independent-minded voter concerned about the items on his list, I suspect that the party's biggest problems with swing voters have to do with Iraq and maybe Hurricane Katrina."
• RCP Blog's Tom Bevan: "I'm surprised profligate spending isn't on Glenn's list, because I think it points to a broader problem that connects a lot of the dots. Clearly, part of what has been so depressing to the GOP base is that there is a sense that in just 12 short years Republicans have surrendered some of the fundamental principles which swept many into office in the first place."

Not all on the right have given up hope. Townhall's Hugh Hewitt reports Sen. Jim Talent (R-MO) has "separated" from the "gaffe-prone and overmatched McCaskill," Sen. Mike DeWine (R-OH) "is tied with hard left Sherrod Brown," and Sens. Conrad Burns (R-MT) and Rick Santorum (R-PA) "have decisively won key debates." RedState's Moe Lane has similar thoughts.

LANDSCAPE: Taking Their Lead To The Bank

Charlie Cook's description of the current climate as "without question the worst political situation for the GOP since the Watergate disaster in 1974" has left bloggers buzzing. Cook goes on to report: "On a conference call today, James Carville suggested that the Democratic Party should expand beyond just the top targeted races. ... Carville went as far as to suggest Democrats go to the bank and borrow $5 million. If I were them, I'd make it $10 million and put $500,000 each of these 20 districts."

DailyKos' DemFromCT suggests fourth- or fifth-tier Dems should not expect any spigots to open while Talking Points Memo's Josh Marshall asks readers for first hand accounts of second-tier races that are now competitive including: NY-20, OH-02, CA-11, WA-08, CO-04, and NY-19.

Over at The Plank, Eve Fairbanks notes that despite the Foley Dem surge, "ethics in government" remains "at the bottom of voters' concerns going into November." Fairbanks concludes Foley gate was like a festering wound "widely inflaming voter anger over deeper GOP pathologies like deceit and the war in Iraq." The Plank's Jonathan Chait adds: "I'd guess that conservative voters--the majority of whom are sticking with the Republicans -- are simply offering up different reasons to support their party. People often have a whole jumble of reasons for voting the way they do, and when the top reason on the list goes down, the next one just steps up."

CT SEN: We Bet He Has Thought About How Much He Hates Bloggers

Sen. Joe Lieberman's (I) telling "Uh, I haven't thought about that enough to give an answer," response to the Hartford Courant's would America "be better off with [Dems] regaining control of the U.S. House of Representatives" question drew wide lefty blogger attention. Daily Kos' AlisaR notes Paul Krugman opens his 10/16 column with the Lieberman quote and TPM reader DK describes control of the Senate coming down to Lieberman as his "second biggest dread about the November election." Atrios even makes Lieberman his "Wanker of the Day" and writes: "We've tried to warn all the big guns in Washington that Joe no longer thinks of himself as a Democrat, but they won't listen." The unofficial Lamont Blog writes: "One of two explanations is logically possible (and they're not mutually exclusive): (1) Lieberman is feeding Connecticut voters a line of B.S. because he doesn't want to offend the Republican votes he desperately needs to win, or (2) He is planning on caucusing with Republicans, and is feeding voters B.S. when he tells them he isn't."

Back in CT, Matt Stoller at MyDD reviews cable exec Ned Lamont's (D) new ad: "One of Lieberman's strongest assets is his ability to lie while seeming like he has integrity. This ad catches him clearly breaking his promise to voters." And Arianna Huffington at The Huffington Post blames "Democratic insiders Howard Wolfson, Doug Schoen, and Stephanie Cutter for crushing the "once-promising" Lamont with their "poll-driven culture."

MO SEN: It's A Wonder The Talent Campaign Hasn't Put Their Name On This Attack

Under the header "Slums, drugs, and spousal abuse" RedState's Jeff Emanuel posts video of Aud. Claire McCaskill (D) introducing her second husband Joseph Shepard at a campaign event and goes on to detail past domestic violence in "slum lord" Shepard's life.

Elsewhere, Gateway Pundit notes that the McCaskill campaign pulled an ad featuring an Iraqi war veteran claiming he could not get health care after Kansas City's KMBC found "It was a bogus ad!"

OH SEN: Is The Firewall Really On Fire?

RCP Blog's Jay Cost raises doubts about 10/16's New York Timesarticle claiming the GOP is pulling out of OH. Cost writes: "The Washington Post on Friday reported that the GOP was making Ohio part of its Waterloo-type stand. So - DeWine has gone from fire wall to down-in-flames in less than a week? It was so important to hold his seat that the RNC was stepping on the NRSC's toes -- and now they are pulling up stakes?"

Kausfiles also isn't buying: "It's hard to believe that even World Cocooning Champion Nagourney would get such a big thing wrong, but Cost raises suspicions. For one, there is a jarring difference in tone between Nagourney's sensational lede and the more measured paragraphs buried in the piece ... As Cost notes, reallocating money away from a candidate who already has "a sizable financial advantage" isn't the same as writing him off."

PA SEN: Matthews The Lawn Sign

RedState's pennpatriot was turned off by Sen. Rick Santorum's (R) performance in 10/13's debate. RCP Blog's Tom Bevan is less sure Santorum aggressive style hurt him, but still concludes: "Three weeks out from the election Santorum is an incumbent who is polling between 36-41%. Those numbers indicate fundamental problems with his candidacy which are unlikely to be remedied by a single debate performance - no matter how good it might have been strategically." National Review Online's Kathryn Jean Lopez watched only a few minutes of the Hardball performance but still wrote: "I tell you Chris Matthews is almost at the lawn-sign point for Santorum."

TN SEN: George Stephanopoulos, Playa Hata

National Review Online's Byron York highlights this exchange from Rep. Harold Ford (R-09) 10/15 This Week appearance:

ANNOUNCER: Fair enough. So what kind of man parties with Playboy playmates in lingerie, then films political ads from a church pew?STEPHANOPOULOS : Churchgoer by day, playboy at night? FORD : I've never been to a Playboy mansion party.

York posts the GOP's response noting that the Ford-Playboy party was in Jacksonville for the Super Bowl, not in California which has the Playboy mansion.

Instapundit doesn't see the issue gaining traction: "Likewise, charging someone with partying with Playboy bunnies seems like pretty weak tea. ... Few people will really be offended by that, and other voters will find partying with bunnies to be amusing and perhaps even appealing."

VA SEN: James Webb Loves His Family

The official AllenHQ highlights ex-Navy Sec. James Webb's (D) responses to recent Connections Newspapers quesionnaire, including his failure to mention his three daughters after mentioning his wife and son. Webb's Netroots's Coordinator and Raising Kaine founder Lowell Feld calls the item a "New Low" and posts many pictures of Webb and daughters.

AllenHQ also lists the times and stations Sen. George Allen's (R) 2nd statewide address.

Over at Raising Kaine,Roadette posts video of Webb campaigning in Washington, VA and reports: "Ben "Cooter" Jones had his say too!" At MyDD, Matt Stoller looks at the Washington Post's latest poll showing Allen up 49%-47% and notes: "Virginia seems to be two separate states, a mid-Atlantic liberal state composed of DC and its suburbs, and an Appalachian culturally conservative region which flows into the upper South. ... len is leading Webb by 10 points everywhere but Northern Virginia, where Webb is beating Allen 56-42. ... It's ironic that Mudcat Saunders, the consultant who preaches Southern red state culture, is heavily involved with a campaign reliant on a liberal voting bloc to counterbalance his NASCAR voters."

DailyKos' founder Markos Moulitsas defends Saunders: "Saunders job isn't to win the state outside of NoVa. It's to limit Webb's losses. That's the way Warner and Kaine both won the governorships in the state. NoVa can carry the day for Dems (GOTV!), but only if Democrats can keep the rest of the state close."

Finally, at Political Bite, David Weigel reports that America's love for winners may resurrect Allens' '08 hopes should he defeat Webb: "At the end of the day, D.C. reporters love winners. Even some Republicans think that Allen can turn the soft lighting back on his campaign if he convincingly fends off James Webb. "Let's assume for a moment he wins this Senate race by a decent margin," says Craig Shirley, a Republican consultant ... "Then the story becomes 'Allen's resurrection. How did he win Virginia and how does that translate to 2008?"

CLINTON: Rutgers Is 6-0!

Under the header "Senator Clinton's Emerging Competence Problem" MyDD's Matt Stoller looks at the dust up between Sens. Hillary Clinton (D-NY) and John McCain (R-AZ) over the anonymously Maureen Dowd quoted HRC advisor describing McCain as "looking similar to the way he did on those captive tapes from Hanoi, where he recited the names of his crew mates" and writes:

"And this is the problem with candidates who have no overall rationale for their political work, the technocratic centrists who believe in their own abilities and very little else. They have no message or direction, and resort to vicious pointless attacks in lieu of actual effective argument. It's a structural problem, not an issue of political management."

National Review Online's Byron York forwards inside info form McCain adviser John Weaver: "Senator Clinton did call John while he was entering the Navy/Rutgers game today [Saturday] and apologized. He accepted her apology. We do as well, though like President Reagan, we will trust, but verify. She is correct in saying that the comment was reprehensible."

GIULIANI: Issue Critical

The Stranger remembers ex-NY mayor Rudy Giuliani once saying: "Someone who now voted to roll back the assault-weapons ban would really be demonstrating that special-interest politics mean more to them than life-or-death issues." The Stranger then fast forwards to a Giuliani appearance for ex-Safeco CEO Mike McGavick (R) where Giuliani said, ""I don't think [the assault-weapons ban] is one of the most critical issues right now. ... The assault-weapons ban is something I supported in the past." The Stranger concludes: "A lack of conviction won't protect us against the terrorist threat either, and Giuliani certainly abandoned his at McGavick's fundraiser."

BLOGGERS VS. BELTWAY: Course Stayed

At The Huffington PostTaylor Marsh takes "DC Democratic strategist" Laura Schwartz to task for not sufficiently supporting Air America Radio. Marsh writes: "Laura Schwartz cares about only one thing: lining her own pockets and padding her resume with another guest spot on Fox. She doesn't care or have a clue how hard the people in radio, at AAR and beyond, work. Evidently, she also wants to sabotage our efforts as well." Also at The Huffington PostSteve Young criticizes Air America for "staying the course."

THOUGHT OF THE DAY: We're Pretty Sure Some Civilians Died In The Civil War Too

TPM Cafe's Reed Hundt puts the Lancet study in perspective:

Although the Administration denies that Iraq is in a civil war, we can be confident that everyone in our government agrees that the United States was embroiled in a civil war from 1861 to 1865. Historians are not of one mind on the butcher's bill, but most would find reasonable a total of Union dead, 360,000; Confederate dead, 260,000. Given the American population of 31 million in 1860, that was about 2% of the population killed by battle or illness contracted during military service. By comparison, the Lancet study sets the number dead due to the current complicated conflicts in Iraq at a little more than 2% of the Iraq population. And, of course, the killing in Iraq continues.

LEST WE FORGET: The End OF The World As We Know It

After grabbing a National Review Online link, The Washington Monthly's Kevin Drum notes the character string in the post's address suggests the Corner's software "is robust enough to produce 62^43 different combinations, or just a bit over 10^77 possible blog posts. That's roughly enough for one blog post every microsecond right up through the heat death of the universe. Credit where it's due: conservatives sure do plan ahead, don't they?