October 13, 2006

10/13: Better Late Than Never

News of ex-VA Gov. Mark Warner's (D) decision not to pursue WH '08 dominated the blogosphere 10/12. Early returns show John Edwards to be the chief beneficiary. With that said, the Blogometer is pleased to officially unveil "The Hotline's Blog Directory." Cataloging every relevant blog would be an endless task, but we have put together short entries for the top 50 most trafficked blogs, which can be found alphabetically and by traffic rank. So please, look around, bookmark the page as a future resource. And yes, we do plan to expand the directory in the future.

WARNER: On The Plus Side, Jerome Armstrong's Now Available

Plenty of blogosphere winner/loser analysis on ex-VA Gov. Mark Warner's decision not to run in '08. John Edwards seemed to be the consensus winner:

• TAPPED's Harold Meyerson: "John Edwards, by contrast, has seen the opportunities presented by Hillary's centrism, and in 2005, he took 'em. He repudiated his vote authorizing the war, as Hillary has not. He has focused on the casualties of the new economy -- not just the poor, but the wage-stagnated middle class -- and proposed a range of policy directions that go well beyond applied Rubinism."
• DailyKos' founder Markos Moulitsas: "The biggest winner of the 2008 field? There are several. John Edwards, already the frontrunner in my opinion, loses the only serious southern opponent. Already strong in Iowa and Nevada, this will make him the prohibitive favorite in the fourth contest in South Carolina. If he wins the first three out of four, he's looking pretty good."
• MyDD's Chris Bowers: "If I had to guess, the person most helped by this decision will be John Edwards. But, like I said, that is only a guess."

Others receiving votes:

• The Plank's Michael Crowley: "Like Warner, Bayh has been positioning himself as a sensible red state moderate who can transcend partisanship. And like Warner, Bayh has been working to introduce himself to national Democrats who don't know much about him. Until now, Warner had been making that difficult for Bayh, hogging the media's attention and the buzz within DC Democratic circles. Now I suspect Bayh is about to have his own moment in the spotlight."
• TAPPED's Tom Schaller: "Who is the big winner in all of this? Al Gore, because the Hillary-alternative crowd now has one fewer choices on the menu. John Edwards is still there, too, of course. If Gore is smart he'll invite Edwards down to Tennessee and ask him to put together a Democratic "greatest hits" ticket from 2000 and 2004: The better of the two presidential candidates and the better of the two veep running mates."
• Markos: "Bill Richardson becomes the only serious candidate in the race who is a governor, making it easier for him to distinguish himself from the crowd."

CLINTON: What's With All The Instapundit HRC Love?

TAPPED's Charles P. Pierce describes the "internal fight between people who believe that Bill Clinton was the template for Democratic success, and people who believe ... that Clintonism has proven to be less a governing philosophy than a cult of personality" as "the presiding dynamic of the next two election cycles." Pierce handicaps: "If the Democrats don't capture either house of Congress this time around, the Clinton side will come back with a vengeance. If the Democrats do manage to gain a working majority in either house, some very famous TV pundits are going to find that their phone calls don't get returned."

Meanwhile, on the right, Instapundit has two Sen. Hillary Clinton (D-NY) posts up. One applauding her endorsement of an "Iraqi oil fund" and another linking to examination of her position torture.

FEINGOLD: Wonder Who Pierce Is Pulling For In That Clintonism-As-Cult-Of-Personality Fight?

Charles P. Pierce at TAPPED applauds Sen. Russ Feingold's (D-WI) 10/12 Air America Morning Zoo appearance for "talking about how the Democratic senatorial caucus talks big in public, and then folds in private, usually on the advice of consultants "with connections to the previous Democratic administration."

MCCAIN: No Midnight Toker

National Review Online's Kathryn Jean Lopez hits Sen. John McCain (R-AZ) for talking "about the coolness of the Eagles when it was actually the Steve Miller Band playing" on Laura Ingraham's show 10/12. Lopez comments: "But for anyone who was left with any doubt: I think that John McCain doing Laura's show finally is as clear an indication as you're going to get for a bit he's running for president."

Unable to resist a second dig, Lopez later links to a transcript of Rush Limbaugh criticizing McCain for calling pro-immigration enforcement GOPers "nativists" and writes: "If McCain is in full-on courting conservatives mode, he was lucky Laura gave him airtime."

LANDSCAPE: The Phenomenal Harold Ickes

Netroots heavy hitters DailyKos' founder Markos Moulitsas and MyDD's Chris Bowers both were excited by Constituent Dynamics latest robo poll numbers on House races. Bowers writes: "Based on 63 polls of 48 districts of 1,000 likely voters each, they will show Democrats currently ahead in the House by 19 seats, 224-205, or the exact, 19-seat margin of the Republican Majority after the 2002 elections." Markos was more cautious: "Quick analysis? 1) I think this is too optimistic for the Dems, but encouraging, and 2) even if spot on, most of those leads are tiny. At the end of the day, most of these races are tight, and will be ultimately decided by the ground game." Kausfiles chips in with a sports analogy: "First impression: Grim for the GOPs, but if it were a ballgame you wouldn't head for your car."

Over at TPM CafeMatt Corley counts up all the House race rankings CQ and Charlie Cook changed post Foleygate. Their totals: "29 races have shifted favorably for Dems since the Foley scandal first hit. Only one has shifted in favor of the GOP."

Also at MyDD, Chris Bowers notes that according to Pollster.com's five-poll averages from the most competitive 13 Senate races "for the first time ever Democrats now hold leads in enough Senate races to take narrow control." Bowers writes: "If these polls accurately reflected the final results, that would make the Senate 49-49-2, Depending on what Lieberman does, that would be enough for a Democratic majority, but not quite enough for Democratic control."

Markos posts video of Harold Ickes' September Fund's new ad and writes: "their first ad is good. Really, really good. Phenomenal, in fact. ... This ad will be aired on CNN in about a dozen congressional districts. They did a bunch of ads, tested them in suburban/exurban Philly and Columbus, and this one topped them all amongst infrequent Democratic voters and swing voters."

LANDSCAPE II: Stop Whining And Get Busy

RCP Blog's Tom Bevan rounds up polling and MSM coverage from three "big Senate debates"10/12. RedState's Leon Wolf looks at recent polling headlines and notes "there's a mighty wide gulf between losing 7 seats and losing 30 seats." Wolf then examines "four Congressional Districts in Eastern Pennsylvania" that "stand out as a bellwether for the rest of the country." Wolf writes: "If, on election night, we manage to keep three of the four seats, I'll feel good about keeping the majority. If we only keep two, I'll start being nervous. And if we lose three or all four, I'll start feeling doomed." Wizbang's Lorie Byrd wants none of the doom and gloom. Under the header "Stop Whining And Get Busy" she writes: "Look at the examples of George Allen and Joe Lieberman. There is a month to go and although the Foley scandal slowed the momentum Republican candidates were experiencing, it did not determine the election unless you let it."

CT SEN: Just Another Contest In A Busy Campaign Season

MyDD's Matt Stoller has video of Sen. Joe Lieberman's (I) new ad attacking cable exec Ned Lamont (D): "It's a very good ad, though the claims are simply not true. Lamont didn't lay off 68% of his employees, and he didn't pay himself $546,000 that year. And none of that was reported in the New York Times."

The Plank's Jason Zengerle looks at recent polls and analysis of the race and writes: "it's worth re-reading the piece Ryan Lizza wrote the morning after Lamont beat Lieberman in the Democratic primary. As Ryan wrote at the time, it's now clear that Lamont made a terrible mistake not going for Lieberman's jugular in his primary victory speech; and, as Ryan predicted, the general election has indeed turned into "just another contest in a busy campaign season."

TRex at firedoglake comments on lieberman spokesman Dan Gerstein's 10/12 Young Turks radio show appearance and the official Lamont Blog highlights differences between Lieberman's latest Iraq statements and those from surrogates earlier,

MD SEN: Who Knew Michael Steele Even Knew Bush?

Under the header "The standard bearer of these convictions is George W. Bush" DailyKos' founder Markos Moulitsas posts video of "a typical attack campaign ad. Nothing special, until the punch line. It's brilliant.

MO SEN: Why Does James Talent Hate The Troops?

Fired Up Missouri looks at Sen. James Talent's (R) campaign push back against an Iraq war vet featured in a Aud. Claire McCaskill (D) ad claiming Talent votes prevented him from getting prompt medical care. FUM writes: "I support Josh. I'll be calling Jim Talent's office first thing tomorrow morning, and I encourage anyone who values the commitment and sacrifice of our military veterans to do the same."

MT SEN: No, They're Saying Booooo-urns

National Review Online's Kathryn Jean Lopez regrets missing Grey's Anatomy to see Sen. Conrad Burns (R) debate state Senate Pres. Jon Tester (D): "I resent the bad Republican candidates (Burns) for tainting the good ones (Santorum)."

PA SEN: Apparently Santorum's Italian

Unable to put down the remote, National Review Online's Kathryn Jean Lopez has many takes on Sen. Rick Santorum's (R) debate performance 10/12 including: "I'll stop soon...but before I do...Casey really exudes "I'm-not-going-to-say-anything-of-substance-but-damn-am-I-proud-of-myself." In contrast, Santorum's "I'm a fighter...but I'm an Italian kid from a Steel town, what do you expect" makes him likable and it's honest. Santorum won this debate and I just hope Keystone folks were watching. I don't blame Casey for being so hesitant to debate - this one was no contest."

VA SEN: Who Loves Women More?

Ex-Navy Sec. James Webb's (D) Netroots Coordinator and Raising Kaine founder Lowell Feld has a post linking Sen. George Allen (R) to Abramoff-Linked "Non-Profits" named in Sen. Chuck Grassley (R-IA) report and another item on Citizens for Tax Justice finding "99% of Americans Are Net Losers Under" the "BushAllen" tax cuts.

On the right, the official AllenHQ promotes Allen's Club For Growth endorsement and video of a new ad featuring Susan Allen. An unimpressed Kathryn Jean Lopezwrites : "I Hate Being in D.C. ... because whenever I am near a TV or by a mailbox I wind up encountering Allen and Webb trying to out-feminist one another."

FOLEY: Trading Emotional Spaces

Continuing the growing lefty blogger "we're not winning just because of Foley" meme, Talking Points Memo's Josh Marshall quotes from reader email:

Here's the thing about the Foley scandal: it gives people space to change their minds about things. That's what Foley has done--provided an emotional space within which people can reevaluate their views without having to question themselves or their previous beliefs too deeply.

Marshall adds: "In itself, Foleygate isn't going to drive many people's votes. And even fewer will admit that it has in polls. But I think Foley has provided a collective gut-check moment for the country, when perhaps a critical portion of the country has said, Enough. it's not about Foley. It's really about everything that has come before."

Daily Kos' DemFromCT has similar thoughts: "By itself, it wouldn't do much except for Foley's old district, Tom Reynolds' in NY, and in a handful of others. But taken in context with negative intangibles about the GOP (primarily Iraq, but also fiscal irresponsibility), Foley was and is a crystallizer for any still out there who haven't made up their mind (and, of course, keeping the focus away from what Bush and the GOP wants to talk about is a bonus)."

Marshall also looks atGallup's survey and writes: "So "white frequent churchgoers" should be -- and through most of my adult life -- have been the sweet spot of the electorate for the Republican party. ... Yet, according to this latest Gallup survey, Republicans are only coming in even with this group. If that number is even close to on the mark and remains so for the next four weeks you can be next to certain that the Democrats will blow the Republicans out in the House and very likely win back control of the senate too. ... is it really all Foley?"

In new Foley developments, The Plank's Ryan Lizza reports that Karl Rove "twisted Foley's arm" to get him to run in '06. Kausfiles doesn't see much of a story there: "Logically, promising "enhanced success" if you do X might be little different than promising diminished success if you don't do X. But on the thuggishness scale, there's a big difference. It was Rove's job, after all, to convince popular incumbents to run for reelection."

In other Foley news, Marshall examines MSM coverage of Kirk Fordham's 10/12 testimony, MyDD's Jonathan Singer notes Speaker Denny Hastert (R-IL) is "barely cracking 50 percent" in his own race, and Media Matters debunks 12 Foley scandal "myths" including:

• Democrats and their allies orchestrated the Foley scandal as a political dirty trick
• Conservative Evangelical Voters are Particularly Outraged by Foley Scandal
• CREW Withheld Emails and Other Information From FBI, Congressional Leaders

BLOGGERS VS. MSM: The IRS Has More Than Some Awful Rules

RCP Blog's Jed Babbin attacks "the NYT, WaPo and LA Times, the news directors of CBS, ABC and NBC" for ignoring Sen. Harry Reid's (D-NV) hiding his interest in a land deal with a former casino lawyer from the Senate. Townhall's Hugh Hewitt gets help from a CPA to explain the scandal:

Harry Reid's transaction was done, obviously, to hide his ownership in the underlying land. ... I only caught a piece of the segment on this, but it sounded like he received his cash back almost immediately. This is a bad fact if so. The IRS has some really awful rules to recharacterize this as a sale transaction if he received a cash distribution that, when looked together with the contribution of the land, is more properly characterized as a sale of the property.

Captain's Quarters is also on the case tying in Reid's son Rory Reid and Jay Brown.

BLOGGERS VS. BLOGGERS: Swinging Libertarians

Prompted by DailyKos' founder Markos Moulitsas' CATO essay The Case For The Libertarian Democrat and CATO's new study "The Libertarian Vote" showing a 9-14 percent of the population libertarian swing vote lefty bloggers are examining whether libertarians can be brought into the Dem fold. Short answer: no.

• The Washington Monthly's Kevin Drum: "I just don't see it. When it comes to social policies, it's true that liberals are more closely aligned than conservatives to libertarian principles. Libertarians may say they favor liberal social policies - and they do - but when push comes to shove most of them will toss the social stuff overboard in a heartbeat in favor of a dedication to economic libertarianism. What really gets their hearts pounding is big government and regulation of the free market. They're against 'em. And let's face it: Democrats just can't credibly claim to be on their side."
• Matthew Yglesias: "I find this pretty unconvincing. The trouble is that the poll question they're basing their work on are incredibly generic. ... America is famous, however, for having voters who want "small government" but don't actually want to shrink any major government programs. Lots of people may think the government "does too much." Cutting Social Security benefits, however, is very unpopular. So is cutting defense spending. The number of people who want to cut both is actually quite small.
• The Washington Monthly's Avi Klein: "The idea of a committed libertarian Democrat, on the other hand, seems absurd -- the national party (for good reason) is committed to higher taxes and bigger government, and libertarians vote their pocketbook. But on issues of privacy and personal choice, the Democrats may be able to make some inroads. And this brings us back to where we started: a small but significant bloc of voters just aching to be wooed."
• TAPPED's Ezra Klein: "But moving to dominate one interest group necessarily means shifting away from others. To own libertarians, for instance, Democrats would have to abandon, well, everyone else. The mark of an important swing group now isn't their size -- almost everyone is big enough to throw a presidential race -- it's their attractability. And if the term libertarian has any meaning at all -- and I think, in this report, it basically doesn't -- they're not aligning themselves with the relatively-statist Democratic Party anytime soon."

THOUGHT OF THE DAY: Officially Unpopular Everywhere

Sirotablog links to an The Institute for Southern Study poll that concludes: "Despite strong early support for the Iraq war in the South, the region's opposition to the war now matches national levels -- and by some measures frustration is higher in the South than elsewhere in the country."

LEST WE FORGET: Gary Condits Of The World Unite!

Slate's Dear Prudence fields a tough issue:

Dear Prudence, An individual with the same name as mine has recently been in the news. A lot. For some not very nice things. It's not simply the supposedly "just joking" jibes from friends and co-workers I'm enduring. I'm not looking forward to going through the rest of my life guilty by association. Besides growing rhino skin or changing my name, how do I deal with this, other than repeating over and over that I am ... -Not That Mark Foley

Dear Congressman I mean, Dear Not, Yes, you're in for a siege of "Hey, don't ask my son for his e-mail address!" jokes, but you're probably looking at weeks or possibly months, not a lifetime of this. In response, you can smile wanly and sigh, "I haven't heard that one in about 20 minutes," as you wait for the next scandal to take the congressman off the front pages and out of people's minds. If new acquaintances from work or elsewhere inquire as to whether you used to represent Palm Beach, just say, "No, fortunately, we're not related." It's true there are some names that never lose their power to evoke disgrace-it's good not to be named Fatty Arbuckle or Benedict Arnold. But Rep. Dan Crane was once the scandal du jour for having sex with a female page. I'm sure the other Dan Cranes of the world no longer have to explain they're not "that" Dan Crane. - Prudie

Posted by Conn Carroll at October 13, 2006 12:38 PM