10/10: October Surprise Proof

Perhaps due to questions about the test's actual success, North Korea's announced detonation of a nuclear device has failed to dominate the blogosphere as some might have anticipated. The dominance of bad poll news for the GOP as well as drip-drip items from Mark Foley scandal are dominating the blogosphere. Righty bloggers would love to discuss anything other than Foley, especially years old Rep. Nancy Pelosi (D-CA) speeches on nat'l security, but the issue isn't gaining traction. It has gotten bad enough, that Bill Bennett is blogging pep talks at National Review Online. Can anything knock GOP troubles out of the headlines?

LANDSCAPE: Almost As Popular As 9/11 Conspiracy Theories

Lefty bloggers are near euphoria over the latest round of nat'l poll numbers. AMERICAblog pulls together highlights from CNN's polling:

• 75% said Republicans took inappropriate steps
• 52% said they believe the GOP leadership didn't investigate the charges earlier because they were deliberately covering the scandal up
• 39% approval for Bush
• 28% approval for Congress
• 58% of likely voters to support Democrats
• 34% think most members of Congress deserve re-election

At The Huffington PostAdam Hanft notes that Bush's 33% in Newsweek's poll is "less than the 36 percent of Americans who, according to a Scripps Howard poll, believe that "it is 'very likely' or 'somewhat likely' that federal officials either participated in the attacks on the World Trade Center and the Pentagon or took no action to stop them."

MyDD's Chris Bowers aggregates the last seven generic congressional ballot results and comes up with a 53.7% - 38.1% lead for Dems. Bowers writes: "polls like these do suggest that it is now likely that not only will Democrats win Congress, but that they could very well do so with a majority surpassing anything Republicans have put together since 1994. ... A thirty-seat gain would be our largest in thirty-two years, so that is already shooting pretty high. Let's not get our hopes up beyond that, because I don't see either what good it would do us, or how it is all that probable."

LANDSCAPE II: 'Cause Growing Up Is Hard To Do

Townhall's Hugh Hewitt chides the Washington Post for its 10/9 article that "concludes that the GOP might or might not lose control of the House, and that the Foley fallout might or might not matter in four weeks." Hewitt calls the piece "non-news dressed up as reporting" and notes that Dems "need 15 seats to change hands, and no credible list is ever produced to back up that number, and even though Foleymania swept the MSM for ten days, it took exactly one day of focus on the world and loose nukes and terrorist kooks to refocus large numbers of voters on the stakes." Right Wing News is also still bullish on the GOP's chances: "My current projections, post Foley, are Democrats +5 in the Senate and Democrats +11 to +19 in the House. Despite everything you're hearing, Republican control of the House IS NOT definitely gone yet, although the Foley scandal has certainly made things tougher."

Not all righty bloggers are confident. National Review Online's John Hood Writes:

At meetings of conservative activists and think tankers I've attended over the past few days, a theme of dogged overconfidence about the November balloting was in evidence. Despite the media's Foley fixation and the sea of blue-tinted margins visible in most polling summaries, many activist Republicans I talked to ... continue to believe that the GOP is going to outperform expectations and maintain control of both chambers. ... Many have internalized the Left's unhinged fascination with Karl Rove's genius and expect him to pull some kind of magic trick towards the end of October to deflect the current momentum of the election cycle. ... Basically, I see a lot of people drinking Kool-Aid. It is red. But it has no flavor and no nutritional value.

Despair is widespread enough in conservative circles that Bill Bennett felt the need to grace The Corner with his presence for a pep-talk under the header "Election Day & Staying Home":

Okay, look. Now is the time for all good men-and women-to come to the aid of the party. In 1960, Barry Goldwater famously shouted, "Grow Up Conservatives." It took 20 years for that call to be heeded, ... Ronald Reagan's presidency was about attempting to roll back those 20 years as much as moving forward on a positive agenda. ... You will rue a day with John Conyers as head of the House Judiciary and Pat Leahy as head of the Senate Judiciary. Don't do it. Please don't do it.

NORTH KOREA: A New Hope?

Thankful for anything non-Foley related to come down the pike, righty bloggers are hoping GOP strength on national security can save them in Nov. RedState's question of the day is: "has North Korea just blown up the Democrats' best chance to capture the House?" RCP Blog's Tom Bevan argues "the testing of a nuclear bomb by a rogue regime" is more significant than "a few pervy IMs from a gay Congressman" and goes on to highlight Rep. Nancy Pelosi's (D-CA) opposition to a national missile defense system. The line of attack was quickly picked up by Hugh Hewitt and Captain's Quarters.

National Review Online's Jonah Goldberg isn't sure Bush's record on the issue is one to be proud of: "Lots of folks think this nuke thing is good news for the GOP because it puts national security in play and diminishes the Foley stuff. As political analysis, I think that's probably right. But let's keep in mind that North Korea's nuke testing constitutes a failure of US policy."

On the left, Talking Points Memo's Josh Marshall looks at reports suggesting North Korea's test failed and asks: "Is it possible that the North Korean nuclear test was as big a failure as President Bush's nuclear policy?" Marshall also uses the opportunity to introduce a discussion of the Princeton Project on National Security's final report: "Forging a World of Liberty Under Law, U.S. National Security In The 21st Century." Finally, Marshall looks atGlenn Kessler 's reporting that "a number of senior U.S. officials have said privately that they would welcome a North Korean test, regarding it as a clarifying event" and offers this translation: "The Cheneyites have always wanted a policy of force and confrontation with the NK's. They deep-sixed the Agreed Framework (which kept the plutonium out of commission from 1994-2002). Now they feel confrontation is a fait accompli." The Washington Monthly's Kevin Drum argues the US should give North Korea the "recognition and security guarantees" the desire since such a admission would "literally cost us nothing."

CT SEN: Bottom Of The Barrel

DailyKos' founder Markos Moulitsas wants to help the Sen. Joe Lieberman (I-CT) campaign with their latest project. Team Lieberman has an email out noting Lieberman position at the bottom of the ballot and asks supporters to brainstorm for "the best message to deliver to voters" that will direct them to Lieberman. Markos asks his readers to help and but warns: "And no, you can't suggest 'Scraping the Bottom of the Barrel.' That one is too easy and obvious."

Sirotablog harnessed the power of Lexis-Nexis to catch Lieberman in "a pathological lie." On 10/8 Lieberman said: "There were some things Vice President Cheney said about Saddam having nuclear weapons, I never bought that." Sirota comes up with three quotes contradicting that claim including this one from 2/10/02: "We have reason to believe [Iraq] is developing nuclear weapons."

MyDD's Matt Stoller has video of Lieberman's new ad touting the preservation of the Groton, CT sub base. Stoller explains that Lieberman is attempting to localize the race, and encourages cable exec. Ned Lamont (D) supporters to do all they can to nationalize it. CT Bob tackles the same problem from a different angle posting a graph showing CT taxpayers diminishing return of "money coming back to the state from Washington." CT Bob concludes: "Joe had a couple of good years there when he entered the Senate and seemed to care about Connecticut's needs, but like Joe's interest in US, our rank has crashed to LAST in the nation."

Finally, firedoglake's Jane Hamsher looks at Lieberman's blog response to Lamont's new ad. Lieberman writes: "If you have not had a chance to check out Ned's new ad, please do. It's a scream. Howard Dean would be proud." Hamsher comments: "I don't know what overarching party strategy has everyone staying silent while Joe Lieberman turns the leadership into his media [dog], but whatever it is, it doesn't result in anyone looking very decisive or commanding."

MO SEN: Grading On A Curve

National Review Online's Kate O'Beirne asks readers to remember Sen. Jim Talent's (R) Meet the Press debate with state Aud. Claire McCaskill (D) and wonders "if others agree that Jim Talent turned in the best performance of any of the GOP Senators who have been worked over by Tim Russert."

NJ SEN: Iraq'd

Under the header "Kean (R) turns his back on mother with son in Iraq" DailyKos' founder Markos Moulitsas posts video of a state Sen. Tom Kean (D) trying to placate a critic.

TN SEN: Since When Is Claiming To Be A Lawyer A Good Thing

RedState's Erick Erickson notes that Rep. Harold Ford (D-09) failed the Tennessee Bar Exam which "is not as hard as say California or New York or Virginia." Erickson then posts two clips of Ford on CNN claiming to be a lawyer and asks: "Any student who goes to law school knows that you have to pass the bar exam to be a lawyer. Harold Ford is not a lawyer. Harold Ford's campaign says Ford has never held himself out as a lawyer. Well, if that is true, why then did Ford hold himself out as a lawyer twice on CNN?"

VA SEN: But Blogging IS All About Semi-Incoherent Stream Of Consciousness

Ex-Navy sec. James Webb's Netroots Coordinator and Raising Kaine founder Lowell Feld live blogged 10/9's debate from the Webb "war room." Feld apologized if his "running commentary/stream of consciousness" was "semi-incoherent." Highlights from Feld:

• Allen: Keeps mentioning Ted Kennedy and Hillary Clinton. Uh, George? You're debating JIM WEBB, not Ted Kennedy or Hillary Clinton!
• Webb asks about the Senkaku Islands. Allen has no clue what they are, where they are. George Allen - total blank stare. Webb lectures Allen on something he should KNOW about!
• Allen: Question about racism. "Careless words." "Baseless allegations." "Look at my record." Yeah, right, blame everyone but yourself George; nobody put those words in your mouth!

The official AllenHQ also liveblogged the debate. Their highlights include:

• Jim Webb opens by remarking about how bad things are. The stock market is at an all-time high, and businesses are making profits - profits, I tell you! - yet, he says, 10% of Fortune 500 companies pay no taxes at all. (has he considered the possibility that they pay no taxes because they didn't make a profit in the relevant period?)
• Jim Webb is back to flogging capitalism. Allen confronts him on how many Virginians would be affected by his tax proposals. Webb dodges and asks a question in return. Bickering ensues, after which Senator Allen says that 3 million Virginians have benefited from tax cuts.
• Senator Allen asks Jim Webb about terrorist surveillance and detainee lawsuit issues. Jim Webb responds that he wants more oversight, but says nothing about detainee lawsuits. Allen presses him on habeus rights for detainees, and Webb says that he wants to give more support to people like John McCain on that matter. But Allen voted with McCain on the bill.

National Review Online's takes on Webb's debate statements on taxes and RedState has an interview with author and biographer of George Allen Kathleen Antrim. Erick Erickson writes: "In the course of writing her upcoming book on George Allen, she's thoroughly researched the allegations leveled against him by Jim Webb and partisans in the media. Are the allegations truthful? Do they have any substance? Kathleen Antrim doesn't think so."

FOLEY: Not Just Gay Sex, But Gay Promiscuous Sex!

TPM Cafe's Stirling Newberry argues the Foley scandal is really three scandal's in one: "first is the sex predator scandal of Foley and pages, the second is the cover up scandal which includes Hastert and the FBI, the third is also a sex and cover up scandal, but it is the one which is the glue that holds the entire roving meltdown together. ... The scandal which has turned the entire mess radioactive is the cover up by the Republican elite from their own base of the reality of Gay Republican Promiscuous Sex."

Also at TPM, Paul Kiel provides a Foley scandal timeline going all the way back to 1997 and Todd Gitlinshares a story of "a lifelong Republican now living in Florida" who "wouldn't be caught with an FDR dime in his pocket" that "was able to weather Iraq, Katrina, Abramoff" but was sent "over the edge" by the Foley mess.

On the Right, RCP Blog's John McIntyre argues that "GOP leaders or their staff[s] may have been protecting Foley for a number of reasons, but wanting to save the "seat" is not one of them" sine FL-16 "is a strong Republican district."

BLOGGERS VS. BELTWAY: Et Tu, Carville?

Lefty bloggers are unhappy with revelations concerning big name Dems in Bob Woodard's "State of Denial." Under the header "Did Carville Tip Bush Off to Kerry Strategy" TPM Cafe's M.J. Rosenberg highlights James Carville's interaction with Mary Matalin prior to Sen. John Kerry's (D-MA) decision not to contest OH's '04 results. Taylor Marsh notes the book also fingers Mike McCurry as a "sell out" and then adds her own non-Woodward tip that " Joe Lockhart, in the middle of a heated presidential campaign, started making new business calls out of the Kerry war room giving out confidential campaign information while he was at it. Obviously trying to hedge his bets, he'd call out, give poll data and other info to people, while trying to drum up business for himself. Class act." Marsh concludes: "The DC Dems hired to fight for John Kerry simply sold him out at the first sign of a fight. Except for a loyal group closest to Kerry, many of the people in his employ simply sucked. I can't say it any plainer. Woodward offers more proof on what's been speculated about for a couple of years now."

BLOGGERS VS. BELTWAY II: Not Chump Change

As part of an effort to get House Dems to contribute more to the DCCC, DailyKos' founder Markos Moulitsas posts a list of member pledges to the DCCC Markos notes: "If everyone paid up, that would mean about $10 million more for the DCCC. That's not chump change." Later Markos admits "the list of DCCC giving I've posted is a couple of weeks old" and hopes "many of the members might be up-to-date at this point."

CLINTON: When $2.1 Million Is Not Enough

DailyKos' founder Markos Moulitsas looks at Hotline On Call (go team!) reports that Sen. Hillary Clinton (D-NY) gave $2.1 million from her campaign to the DSCC and writes: "She had over $22 million CoH at the end of Q3, so she can afford it." Kos goes on: "I'm struck at the sacrifices so many of us are making to help out the party and its various candidates. People are seriously dipping into their living expenses to try and make a difference this fall. So I get pissed seeing Dems without serious challengers, with fat campaign accounts, who aren't contributing to the cause. If they expect the party rank and file to help fund its efforts, they need to lead by example.

IMMIGRATION: That Could Be A Long Wait

Captain's Quarters put mostly righty blogger speculation that Pres. Bush planned pocket veto the Secure Fence Act to bed 10/9. CQ reports that "Congress has not formally sent the bill to the President. That means the clock has not started for his signature. The 10-day period starts only after Congress formally prints and delivers the bill for the President to sign into law." The reason for the delay: "Why has Congress waited? ... They and the White House want to schedule the signing for what they see as the maximum impact to the midterm elections. This means waiting for other stories to fall off the front pages."

THOUGHT OF THE DAY: Yeah, "Substantive" Is Dancing With Stars' Tucker Carlson's Job

Above the law sat in on a New Yorker Festival interview of The Daily Show's Jon Stewart, conducted by New Yorker editor David Remnick. ATL has Stewart's thoughts on Ann Coulter, Mark Foley, and John McCain. Stewart also revealed he reads blogs specifically naming The Huffington Post and Instapundit. When asked why The Daily Show doesn't do more "substantive" stuff Stewart responds:

It's not a dodge for us to say, 'We're a comedy program.' We don't have to do their [the MSM's] job too. It's like asking a movie critic, 'Why don't YOU make a movie?' [We are a comedy show,] and that to me is enough.

LEST WE FORGET: The Gift That Keeps On Giving

The Huffington Post's Martin Lewis wraps up his caption contest for a photo of Pres. Bush, Sen. Rick Santorum (R-PA) and ex-Rep. Mark Foley at the signing of the Adam Walsh Child Protection and Safety Act of 2006.

• In fifth place..."While most of the assembled party were happy to see the new Child Protection Act passed, Congressman Foley was troubled by the potential impact on his social life...?"
• In fourth place..."Let us prey!"
• In third place...Above Bush's head: LIAR, Above Santorum's head: LIAR, Above Foley's head: PANTS ON FIRE!
• In second place..."A Wanker, a canker and an underage Spanker."
• AND THE WINNER IS (drum roll please!)...President Bush: "Sex offenders are innovative and resourceful, and so are we. They never stop thinking about new ways to harm our children, and neither do we."