October 31, 2006

Blogometer Update

HOUSE LANDSCAPE: What The FEC?

  Reader DK at Talking Points Memo says it's "always interesting poking through the [Federal Election Commission]'s independent expenditure reports filed late on Fridays."

That's because the Republicans have spent $7 million in "places you don't expect to see the GOP having to marshal its resources," writes DK.

  He cites Western races in Colorado's 5th, Nevada's 2nd ("say a little prayer for Chrissy Mazzeo the cocktail waitress who has accused Jim Gibbons ... of propositioning/accosting her") and 3rd, Nebraska's 3rd, and Wyoming's At Large seat as being prime cash dump zones for the Republicans.  In Nevada's 3rd District alone, the NRCC "has just put almost $400,000" into the race to ward off Dem challenger Tessa Hafen.

CT 04: Shaysus H. Chris!

  The Democratic Party must've finally gotten wind that all is not Right in GOP incumbent Rep. Christopher Shays' troubled re-election run.

  Greg Sargent at TPMCafe writes:

For days now there's been some buzz to the effect that national Dems are preparing to pump a huge amount of cash into the deadlocked contest between GOP Rep. Chris Shays and Dem challenger Diane Farrell.  Well, the money's finally arrived: Yesterday the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee dropped $1,025,989.50 into the race for an ad buy targeting Shays going into this thrilling contest's final days.

FL 16: Not Foleying Anybody

  Tom Bevan at Real Clear Politics fills us in on a "bit of good news" for Republicans in the 16th.  Joe Negron, the GOP's fill-in for resigned Rep. Mark Foley, gets a break in his last-minute emergency campaign.

  Bevan quotes a blog's report that a District Court has ruled that "signs can go up sayign a vote for Foley is a vote for Negron, if they also say a vote for [Dem challenger Tim Mahoney] is a vote for Mahoney."  Democrats "will not appeal the ruling."

  "Florida-16 is currently ranked #3 on RCP's list of the 50 Most Competitive House seats in 2006," writes Bevan.  "This is unquestionably a boost for the GOP, though it's hard to quantify just how much it may improve their chances of holding the seat."

ID 01: Who's Buried In Grant's Tomb?

  According to a recent poll, GOPer Bill Sali has a slight lead over Dem Larry Grant for the open 1st.  That's music to the ears of Jonathan Singer at MyDD, or it would be if Singer wasn't such a pessimist this go-round, or less significantly more optimistic, or something:

  I'm ... not going to get my hopes up too high in the assumption that this polling indicates that the Democrats are within a couple points of winning rather than within a couple points of catching their Republican adversaries with a significant portion of the electorate still undecided.  In 2004, for example, I truly believed that Democrat Brad Carson had a great chance in the Oklahoma Senate race, with polling showing him either up by a couple points or down by a couple points but in the low 40s, only to see Republican Tom Coburn virtually walk to a 53 percent to 41 percent victory.

  Nonetheless, the political climate in the country -- and even in Idaho -- is decidedly different than it was in 2004, and the late-breaking trends are not moving towards the GOP like they were just two years ago.  That could change, particularly as a result of the politically-motivated decision to announce the verdict in the Saddam Hussein trial a week from today.

  But even keeping that in account, I'm significantly less pessimistic about Democrats' chances in states like Idaho than I was just weeks ago.  And if this movement keeps up, folks inside the beltway will be shocked to see races break towards the Democrats that they never even thought possible.

IL 14: Hastert-Been

  "Do you think Denny Hastert really wants to keep his job as House speaker?"  What prompts the remark is that Hastert has posted "his first blog -- ever" over at Redstate, as Ivy J. Sellers reports at Human Events' The Right Angle.  Among some of Hastert's literary gems:

  In short, Democrats do not believe in the Global War on Terror.  I don't mean that they don't support it, though they don't.  What I mean is Democrats don't believe the war actually exists.

  While Republicans believe the biggest threat to American freedom and security is the evil ideology that planned and executed the murder of 3,000 of our countrymen five years ago, and continues planning today, Democrats think the biggest threat to America is... Republicans.

  Rightys not only don't seem to be that impressed, some are downright disappointed; nay, disillusioned.  To wit, Jon Fleischman of FlashReport, commenting at Hastert's blog:

  With all due respect to the Speaker, under his watch, Republicans have presided over vast increases in spending, enlarging the size and scope of the federal government to record levels.

  It's a real problem.  Just using myself as an example. I am a former Executive Director of the California Republican Party, have worked on GOP campaigns and causes for two decades, and when I see a post from the Speaker, I get irate.

  The War on Terror is very important.  But to me, the House GOP Leadership right now stands for growth in government.  It's hard for me to just 'put that aside' -- so maybe someone can give me advice on how to do that.

  Winning the War on Terror abroad and winning the war for liberty at home are both important.  Find me a spokesperson who is good on BOTH, please.

IA 03: Dave's Not Here, Man

  "This is funny," writes Tom Bevan at Real Clear Politics.  "President Bush went all the way to Iowa today to help Republican Jeff Lamberti in his race to upset Leonard Boswell in IA-3."  The President said, according to the White House transcript:

  This campaign only ends after the voters have had a chance to speak.  No doubt in my mind, with your help, Dave Lamberti will be the next United States congressman.

  "Oops," says Bevan.  Bush actually said it twice before correcting himself.  "[W]ith the amount of campaigning the President does, I'm surprised we don't see this sort of thing happen more often."

  Bevan now ponders the potential bungle factor of Bush's next stop, where he'll be in Texas trying to pronounce the name of the 22nd District's GOP candidate, Shelley Sekula-Gibbs.

NE 03: Yo, Adrian!

  John Aravosis at AMERICAblog says "Republicans are growing increasingly worried about our boy, Scott Kleeb" in Nebraska's 3rd District, which has been owned by the GOP for 48 years.  Seems Mr. Kleeb, with the help and attention of AMERICAblog's army of contributors, is presenting a bit of a threat to Republican nominee Adrian Smith in this formerly safe GOP district, being vacated by the retiring Tom Osborne.

  Aravosis would like more help for Kleeb.  As he says, "I've met him, he's good."  And that's that.

WY AL: Smoking A Cubin

  The "Slap" Heard 'Round the Rockies continues to resonate in the Mountain West, and Dems are taking advantage of it.  You may have heard that incumbent GOP Rep. Barbara Cubin threatened to smack Libertarian challenger Thomas Rankin for daring to highlight her ties to disgraced GOP lobbyist Jack Abramoff and outcast Republican Rep. Tom DeLay, a charge she didn't exactly deny. 

  georgia10 at Daily Kos reports that a new post-"slap" poll has shown Democrat Gary Trauner in a "statistical dead heat" with Cubin, amazing when you consider that "President Bush carried Wyoming in 2004 by an overwhelming margin (69%-29%).  It's gotten choppy enough for Wyoming Republicans that the Veep himself, Dick Cheney, will be making a stop this week to "help remedy the situation."

  Big Dick has his work cut out for him, as Cubin continues to flail about wildly, with her latest boner [reported by Markos Moulitsas at Daily Kos] being this: she blames her threat to Rankin on Viagra-enhanced Rush Limbaugh!  From the Billings Gazette:

She later apologized, saying she may have been influenced by listening to too much Rush Limbaugh.  Last week, Limbaugh said he would slap actor and Parkinson's disease sufferer Michael J. Fox, "if you'd just quit bobbing your head."

  As for Trauner, he benefits from Cubin's gaffes and should be heartened by cutting new ads like this one.

[Mike Sheehan]

Posted by Conn Carroll at 03:14 PM

10/31: It Ain't Easy For A Blogger

As anyone who has tried starting their own blog knows, it's harder than it looks. Sure, setting up an account with a blog hosting company is easy, it's just filling your blog with 2 or 3 posts a day that becomes very difficult very quickly. Blogs start and stop all the time, often without anybody noticing. But what about campaign-related blogs that suddenly go silent? What can we read it into that? Raising Kaine points out 10/31 that pro-Sen. George Allen (R) blog The A-Team hasn't had a new post since 10/27. The A-Team quickly added 3 new posts in a span of 5 minutes, but one has to wonder if their noticeable silence says anything about the energy level of Allen supporters.

LANDSCAPE: Apparently, Iraq is Going To Be An Issue In This Election

TPM Cafe's Reed Hundt observes this year's midterm elections have "morphed into a referendum on Iraq" and argues that Dems "did not intend either of these two questions until about two months ago, but Lamont's victory in the Nutmeg State primary and ensuing polling across the country caused virtually all Dems in serious races ... to run campaigns that linked the President's war and his general behavior to the local Republican." Still at TPM Cafe, Greg Sargent reports Stan Greenberg and Bob Shrum latest strategy memo "finds that thanks to the steady stream of bad news from Iraq, majorities in GOP-held districts are now for reducing the number of troops in the Iraq war. The firm surveyed 50 competitive House districts -- all of them held by Republicans -- and found that 54% in these districts only favor beginning troop reductions."

At The Huffington Post, Arianna Huffington pleads with Dems to stick to the Iraq message on the final week of the campaign. Huffington looks at DNC chair Howard Dean's explanation to CBS' Bob Schieffer that the election is about "middle-class tax fairness" and writes: "Nooooo! Dr. Dean, please, please tell me that you don't really believe this election is about "middle-class tax fairness." ... This election is about the fact that Republicans have made us less safe and that Congressional oversight is critical to ensure that Bush and company, with their tragically misguided decisions on Iraq and homeland security, don't make us even less secure over the two years they have left. Period. End of message." Fellow HuffPosterMiles Mogulescu urges Dems to "Play Smash Mouth Football on National Security" and recommends a message: "Are You Safer Now Than You Were 6 Years Ago?"

Back at TPM, Josh Marshall links to Washington Poststory on Pres. Bush statements that "terrorists will win if Democrats win and impose their policies on Iraq" and warns readers: "The desperation will be ferocious. Imagine everything from the last six years rolled into one toxic week. An electoral gauntlet of hacking knives and fire. But, then, where did one party rule ever end serenely?" Marshall also takes onCNN for adopting the "long-standing" GOP jab of calling "the Democratic party, the 'Democrat' party."

Righty blogs frame the issue a little differently. RedState promoted Speaker Denny Hastert's (R-IL) earlier post titled "The Choice Could Not Be Clearer" back to the top of the page. Hastert writes: "In short, Democrats do not believe in the Global War on Terror. I don't mean that they don't support it, though they don't. What I mean is Democrats don't believe the war actually exists. While Republicans believe the biggest threat to American freedom and security is the evil ideology that planned and executed the murder of 3,000 of our countrymen five years ago, and continues planning today, Democrats think the biggest threat to America is... Republicans."

LANDSCAPE II: The Indies Are With Us

DailyKos' founder Markos Moulitsas links to The Allen Report quoting GOP sources predicting defeat in OH, PA, and RI. Kos then ranks the most likely Dem pickups from best to worst: MT, VA, MO, and TN. Kos writes: "All four are certainly possible. And I wouldn't count out a shocker in Arizona. While not probable, it's certainly within the realm of possibilities. ... But if the election was tomorrow I'd predict a 50/50 Senate." Atrios offers his own predictions: "Dems +18 in the House, with the possibility of an orgy of party switching on both sides making the final outcome in the House uncertain. Senate: Dems +4."

Over at MyDD, Jerome Armstrong is more bullish writing that "Karl Rove is on crack." Armstrong looks at Gallup polling and continues: "The independents are aligned with Democrats. It was that way last week, and it's been that way all the time, since last summer. The best estimates put the number of seats gained by Democrats at around 20 from this conservative, and 10-24 from the Republicans at RCP, at 8-26 by CQ's current projection, and anywhere from 16 to 40 from Pollster.com, and from 24-29 by Chris Bowers here."

Back at Daily Kos Markos tracks new DCCC investments in NY-25, KS-02, KY-02, NH-02, NV-03, CA-11, and PA-04.

LANDSCAPE III: Polls Schmolls

National Review Online's Rich Lowry identifies 10 seats the GOP will lose as well as a second tier of 16 that the GOP can only lose 12 of and keep the House. Lowry concludes: "In general, Republicans tend to think, as of this moment, the seats that they are going to lose are scandals seats; races where the Republican candidates are running lazy, mistake-prone campaigns; and seats that are just always tough for Republicans. They don't kid themselves about the national environment, but don't think it will be enough to defeat good candidates running good campaigns, limiting the damage and preventing a total wipe-out this year. If they lose, it will only be by a few seats."

Later Lowry follows up with 4 GOP pick up opportunities including: IL-8, GA-8, GA-12, and VT-AL.

Many on the right are also linking to Michael Barone's latest article casting doubt polls showing Dems dramatically ahead. Power Line's John Hinderaker summarizes: "The key point is that in 2004, people who actually voted split exactly equally between Republicans and Democrats. On the other hand, current polling is showing party identification favoring the Democrats by 5 to 12 points. As Barone notes, party identification has historically changed only slowly. It is highly unlikely that the turnout on November 7 will favor the Dems by anything like 5 to 12 points. Which throws into question most if not all of the poll results we've all been seeing."

Finally, TCS' Ed Driscollinterviews National Review Online's Jonah Goldberg on "the upcoming mid-term elections and what their results could mean to America."

BLOGGERS VS. MSM: Take This Job And Shove It

Lucas O'Connor, now in charge of Google Bomb updates at MyDD, defends the project by discussing two fundamental beliefs: "First, that the media is currently underserving the general public through a combination of apathy, incompetence, and overt right-wing leanings. Second, that voters (and by extension the country) would be better served by a complete understanding of the choice before them." O'Connor continues: "The project presumes that an impartial but impassioned presentation of the facts is difficult, if not impossible, to come by if this current atmosphere is left to its own devices ... To this end, thousands of people across the country have joined together in order to raise several specific issues of importance to the upcoming election. These issues have all been reported by mainstream, impartial news sources, and if enough people are concerned about these issues to mount an effective Google Bomb, then, quite frankly, they are issues worth discussion in the national discourse."

O'Connor concludes: "Fighting back is not inherently the same as fighting dirty. This is the system in which we've been forced to operate for the time being. It's been constructed to restrict the free flow of information and issues, and we aren't cheating because we find a way to work within the constraints.So please CNN. Please New York Times. Please San Diego Union-Tribune. Please whomever. I don't want this job. Take it back."

On the right, Right Wing News updates his own Google Bomb efforts: "After 3 days, the first Googlebomb only had 10 of 45 links in the top 20. Now, after 7 days, it's up 35 links in the top 30."

BLOGGERS VS. BELTWAY: The 72-Hour Myth

GMU prof. Michael McDonald's 10/29 article on the 5 myths about turnout is drawing blogger attention. Pollster.com highlights McDonald's doubts about the GOP's "72 hour program" where he writes: "Studies of a campaign's personal contact with voters through phone calls, door-to-door solicitation and the like find that it does have some positive effect on turnout. ... We don't know what the effects of mobilization drives are in highly competitive races in which people are bombarded by media stories, television ads and direct mail." Pollster comments: "Also, in 2002 and 2004, the 72-Hour-Campaign also benefited from a political environment and national mood largely favorable to Republicans. Not so this time. We will soon see whether they can work the same magic in a climate like 2006."

MyDD's Chris Bowers finds the negative ad myth the most interesting. Bowers writes: "I bet it was going nuclear on John Kerry via Swift Boating and other tactics that allowed Republican turnout in 2004 to surpass Democratic turnout. Given this, in isolation, I'd bet that the Republican 72-hour program and the Amway-stuff probably wasn't superior to our GOTV operations by much, if at all. What was clearly superior was their messaging to drive up base turnout, with going nuclear on gay marriage and equally nuclear on John Kerry serving as essential factors. This could also explain why Democrats appear more mobilized in 2006 than Republicans. We can go nuclear on Bush to the base, but they can't pull off going nuclear on "generic Democrat," which is essentially who we are to about 50% of the electorate right now."

BLOGGERS VS. BELTWAY II: There's No Such Ting As A FreeEats

Pollster.com follows up on Talking Points Memo reports of push polling in MD, TN, and OH by identifying the firm responsible for the calls. After comparing reader reports of calls and an at least one audio recording to a sample "political survey" available on the web, Pollster.com fingers ccAdvertising, a.k.a. FreeEats.com, a.k.a. ElectionResearch.com as the firm responsible for the ad/

DailyKos diarist WeDemocrats in IL-19 reports receiving a push poll from the Terrance Group, and TPM Muckraker's Justin Rood reports that Paul Kiel spoke with Zeke Smith, "the man responsible for those calls and similar ones against at least four other Senate Democratic candidates."

BLOGGERS VS. BELTWAY III: Workin' Hard For The Money

Beltway Blogroll has a thorough look at the increased hiring of bloggers by campaigns. Daniel Glover catalogues the diverse tasks campaigns assign to bloggers including: "to write blogs, develop Web sites, connect with energetic allies on the Internet, respond to online critics, and advise their employers about how to behave in the blogosphere. Others are paid to do more traditional campaign work like communications consulting and opposition research."

Not all bloggers are created equal though: "pay scales range from a few hundred dollars a month to a few thousand, with some of the bloggers earning top dollar for their expertise."

MD SEN: Currying Favor

Manyrightybloggers linked to stories on LG Michael Steele (R) receiving endorsement from ex-Prince Georges County Executive Wayne Curry. RedState's Erick Erickson writes: "

TN SEN: 'Cause Nothing's Funnier Than Pedophilia

DailyKos' founder Markos Moulitsas posts a "Hilarious spoof off that racist RNC ad against Ford ... My favorite line, other than all the Foley jokes? ... If the Constitution can't protect us against terrorists, why protect it?"

On the right, Right Wing News is upset with lefty bloggers who linked to Wonkette's pic of ex-Chattanooga mayor Bob Corker's (R) "daughter kissing another girl at a party." RWN comments: "Does this fit into the McCarthesque outing campaign the left has engaged in during this campaign season? Yes. Does it also fall into the "politics of personal destruction" that the left now regularly uses against its enemies? Sure. Is it an attempt to go after Bob Corker's daughter to get at him? Certainly."

VA SEN: Maybe Colonel Decker Has Them

RCP Blog's John McIntyre latest post on the ex-Navy Sec. James Webb (D)/Sen. George Allen (R) race is headed "George Allen in Trouble." McIntyre notes the "only big news event in this race was the Allen campaign's dump of sexually provocative passages from Jim Webb's many novels. ... Did Allen see his numbers deteriorating and decide he needed to dump the Webb stuff? Or is this is just one poll taken on the weekend that will turn out to be an outlier? We'll find out soon enough."

RedState's Erick Erickson warns readers not to pay attention to recent internal Webb polls showing Allen behind: "When I see campaigns willingly releasing their campaign internals, I get very suspicious. I trust DSCC and NRSC polls about the same and campaign polls with them. Internal means internal. ... So, when I see ... Jim Webb (Perv-VA) releasing [his] internal polls, I think they must be losing and are trying to reassure their base while at the same time attempting to generate favorable media headlines to stop any hemorrhaging.

Meanwhile under the header "Jim Webb limited the roles available to women in the Navy" AllenHQ links to stories on Webb's tenure as Navy Sec. and writes: "Why does Jim Webb constantly claim he opened up more billets for women on his own initiative? In fact, the initiative was that of the Department of Defense, and Jim Webb actually limited their attempt to open more billets for women."

On the left, Webb's Netroots Coordinator and Raising Kaine founder Lowell Feld observes: "The "A-Team blog's last post was on October 27. That's FOUR days ago; rather odd for the last week of tight election campaign. What's going on over there?"

At TPM Cafe, Greg Sargent notes the DSCC is now demanding the release of Allen's VA bar application and demands more coverage of Allen's past from the Washington Post. Kos also highlights "the Democratic counterattack demanding that George Allen release his arrest records. Yeah, he's got sealed arrest records."

OBAMA: We Thought Clinton Was The First Black President

The Huffington Post's Byron Williams recounts an elderly woman "with tears in her eyes" from the 2004 Dem convo. who told him: "I didnt think I would live to see it, but I may be looking at the first African-American president" after seeing Sen. Barack Obama (D-IL) speak. Williams comments on the lack of excitement surrounding the other Dem hope fulls and concludes: "Maybe the time is right for Obama to run. It could very well be that his lack of years in the Senate is actually a strength. He was not there when many of his current colleagues, forced to decide between the courage of their convictions and the perception of appearing patriotic, chose a Faustian bargain which they are still clumsily attempting to explain."

GIULIANI: Also Ran Or Never Ran?

Daniel McKivergan at The Worldwide Standard describes what ex-NY mayor Rudy Giuliani (R) campaign might look like: "Because he's not a fan of the liberal media establishment, I suspect Giuliani would pick some fights with them to score points with conservative Republicans turned off by his social views. As mayor, Giuliani frequently battled The New York Times and its editors over his policies. Getting in a fight with the Times and other liberal icons won't lose him votes in the GOP, and it would put pressure on McCain to do much the same or risk hemorrhaging too many conservative votes to Giuliani."

Interviewed by Roger L. Simon for Pajamas Media, however, some guy named Chuck Todd argues that "Rudi" probably will not make a WH run.

THOUGHT OF THE DAY: The Turd Blossum Has No Clothes

In an effort to "get people to finally drop out of the Rove (anti-)cult" Talking Points Memo's Josh Marshall revisits an argument he made in his second ever TPM post

Going into the big day the polls all showed a very, very close race, with perhaps ever so slight an edge for Bush. Conventional logic would have dictated sending Bush to swing states like Florida. But that's not what Rove did. He chose instead to send Bush to California and New Jersey -- states Bush could only have any hope of winning in a blow-out. The reasoning was simple. Rove figured that he could accomplish more through convincing mainly the press, but also activists and even highly-plugged voters, that Bush was going to win big than he would by sending his guy into a state like Florida for some last minute retail politicking.

As it happened, it was a really dumb decision in 2000. If not for faulty ballots and election stealing, Bush would have lost Florida and the presidency. And given the margin, it's at least conceivable that Bush could have won fair and square had he spent the last few days on the ground in Florida.

LEST WE FORGET: The Blogometer Is All For Ney/Traficant '08

Talking Points Memo's Josh Marshall provides reader with some comic relief: "Rep. Duncan Hunter (R-CA) is forming an exploratory committee to run for president." The always helpful Marshall even contributes a possible campaign slogan: "I managed to avoid getting indicted in the Cunningham probe. I can keep the country out of trouble too." JM concludes: "I hear Bob Ney may be making a few swings through New Hampshire too."

Posted by Conn Carroll at 12:37 PM

October 30, 2006

10/30: This Campaign Is Just Beginning

If CW holds, and Dems take back the House while cable exec Ned Lamont (D) loses to Sen. Joe Lieberman (I), don't expect the energy levels on the lefty blogs to dissipate. Articles in the San Francisco Chronicle and New York Times quoting Rep. Ellen Tauscher (D-CA) on the need for Dems not to run "over the left cliff" once they attain power, have MyDD's Chris Bowers and Matt Stoller promising '08 primary challenges and "Intraparty War." Netroots activists are also unhappy with Dem establishment support for Lamont, and lists are being prepared on who's been naughty and who's been nice. So don't try and take a vacation from politics after 11/7. Because bloggers sure won't.

LANDSCAPE: Cook Vs. Rove

RCP Blog's John McIntyre breaks down "two very different ways to look at this election" including the "Charlie Cook" view that Dems will pick up 20-35 House seats and the "Karl Rove" view the the GOP loses less than 15 House seats and holds both chambers. In the House RCP projects an 18-seat Dem pick up. Right Wing News is even more encouraged by the fence-bill signing and NJ gay-marriage decision, and now believes, like Rove, the GOP will maintain the House.

Across the righty 'sphere, bloggers are confident the GOP will maintain control of the Senate. Townhall's Hugh Hewitt and Power Line's Scott Johnson both link to Tradesports data showing the GOP likely to hold on in VA, TN, and MO.

Also at Townhall, Hewitt defends the "Bush-Rove political legacy" and at National Review Online, Jonah Goldberg preemptively points the finger at NRSC chair Sen. Liddy Dole (R-NC).

LANDSCAPE II: Everyone's A Winner

Lefty blogs are beginning to focus more and more on GOTV questions in the final week. DailyKos' founder Markos Moulitsas links to New York Timesreports on strong Dem efforts and asks: "So, have we caught up to the GOP turnout machine? Parity may or may not be in the cards (the GOP's list is on its third cycle, while the Dems is brand new this year), but we are better off than we've been in a while. ... And whatever else one might say about the party committees and who should or shouldn't get "credit" if we win, fact is all three of them have invested heavily on the ground."

Also at Daily Kos, Georgia10 looks at a US Newsarticle on the decentralized nature of the Dem turnout machine and links to programs readers can participate in, including: Do More Than Vote, MoveOn's Call for Change, and MoveOn's Pre-Halloween Phone Parties

Still at Daily Kos, DemFromCT looks at '04 polling data from OH, MO, and NJ and concludes: "The point is that the polls were relatively accurate predictors of the state of play for a 50 state presidential election." Turning to the GOTV question, DFCT writes: "when we look at the GOP GOTV and compare results with polling, it doesn't appear that there were huge swings away from the expected results. The idea that the GOP GOTV is worth > 2% points [more than D GOTV] seems a bit suspect (CT Senate excepted, because it pits a D GOTV vs no clear competitor). Even in Ohio, where it's most famous, it brought in a slim win that didn't radically differ from the polling ratios."

At TPM Cafe, Greg Sargent tracks last-minute GOP cash dumps including $3M in NJ SEN and $7M "into dozens of House races." At MyDD, Chris Bowers still forecasts Dems to takeover the house, but is worried by over 50 races with Dem leads still in the single digits.

CT SEN: The Natives Are Restless

Under the header "Torches and Pitchforks" firedoglake's Jane Hamsher links to a APstory titled "Lieberman says potential for leadership role helps candidacy" and writes: "Offhand I can't think of any other event in recent history outside of the big three - Katrina, Alito and Torture - that would elicit much more online rage." MyDD's Matt Stoller also is not happy with beltway Dem performance on behalf of cable exec Ned Lamont (D):

Whether it was a standing ovation at a caucus meeting when Joe got back to the Senate after his primary loss, or Obama refusing to come to Connecticut or criticize Joe in any way, or Bill Clinton praising Lieberman on Larry King, or Harry Reid promising Lieberman seniority, or Chuck Schumer refusing to get involved and practically being forced to not back Lieberman after the primary, or insiders telling Lamont's campaign that they would talk Joe out of the race if Lamont didn't go on the attack, it's very clear that the Democratic Party leadership is rotten to the core.

Stoller goes on to praise the efforts of Sen. John Kerry (D-MA), Sen. Chris Dodd (D), Sen. Ted Kennedy (D-MA), and retired Gen. Wesley Clark (D) who "have been there for Lamont." Stoller concludes: "Make no mistake, these DC Democrats are only our temporary allies. They have total contempt for the rules of the party, and they cheered Joe after he faced us in the primary. ... The American people know this. They know that Democratic Senators are moral lepers, weaklings, and that is the only reason we aren't further ahead when the Republicans screw everything up."

Back at firedoglakePachacutec singles out Sen. Barack Obama (D-IL), John Edwards, and "the Clintons" for their "calculated" support for Lamont. Sen. Russ Feingold (D-WI) initially made the list, but official Lamont blogger Tim Tagaris wrote in to explain it was the campaign's fault Feingold was not extended an official invitation earlier.

On the right, RCP Blog's Tom Bevan observes: "Lamont will kick in another $2 million to his campaign. That brings his total investment in both the primary and the general election to a whopping $12.75 million. Ouch."

MD SEN: Dial P For Push Poll

Talking Points Memo reader RC reports receiving a "push poll for Michael Steele" including the question: "Do you favor carrying out medical experiments on unborn babies?" Other TPM readers report receiving similar calls and there is some doubt as to who is making the calls: "Some reports we've gotten say the call was the Steele campaign; others say it was a group called "Common Sense Maryland." Still others say the sponsor was "Common Sense Ohio." Josh Marshall goes on to quote readers from other states claiming to have received similar relevant calls.

Still on the left Oliver Willis has video of Steele's Meet the Press debate with Rep. Ben Cardin (D-03) and reports: "Maybe the markets saw that Steele lost this debate. His contract on Tradesports lost value during the debate, with it now showing him dropping from 28% likelihood to win down to 24%."

On the right, RCP Blog's Tom Bevan posts video of Steele's response to Cardin's Michael J. Fox ad. The response features Steele's sister Dr. Monica Turner.

MO SEN: Out Foxed?

The Plank's Eve Fairbanks looks at Pollster.com data showing Sen. James Talent (R) moving ahead of Aud. Claire McCaskill and wonders: "distasteful as the thought is -- if the Michael J. Fox kerfuffle didn't have a little blowback there."

TN SEN: On Prostitutes And Playmates

Townhall's Mary Katharine Ham has video of her appearance with AMERICAblog's John Aravosis discussing the RNC's "bimbo" ad. Later she notes Rep. Harold Ford (D-09) denied the ad had anything to do with race and writes: "I also don't have a big problem with the sexual nature of the RNC ad. Carol Lin called the "bimbo" in the ad a "prostitute" yesterday. For real? If strapless shirts now mean "prostitute," I'm gonna have to rethink some of my wardrobe choices. She's a Playmate. She's a party girl. She's not a prostitute, for goodness sake. All in all, it's pretty tame."

TPM Cafe's Greg Sargent reports that Wal-Mart thought the ad was more than tame. Responding to pressure from Rev. Jesse Jackson, Wal-Mart ended its relationship with "bimbo" ad consultant Terry Nelson for his role in the production of the ad. Also blogging on the ad, Josh Marshall reports at Talking Points Memo that the RNC recieved money from Nicholas T. Boyias who is "one of the largest producers and distributors of gay porn in the United States." AMERICAblog's John Aravosis follows up reminding readers of pornstar Mary Carey's continued financial support of the GOP.

Also making it s way around righty blogs, video of Ford saying: " My friend Lincoln Davis who chairs our campaign says there are, there's one big difference between us and misfortunate Republicans when it comes to our faith: he said that Republicans fear the Lord; he said Democrats fear AND love the Lord."

VA SEN: Is That What Smells In VA?

Daily Kos diarist GregP has video ex-Navy Sec. James Webb (D) responding to Sen. George Allen (R) attacks on his fiction writing including: "And by attacking my career and my ethics in this way, if anyone has any doubts from other indicators, he has now shown his true character ... if you want to find accountability for this, remember that the fish rots from the head down." Webb Netroots Coordinator Lowell FeldRaising Kaine also has video from the same 10/28 Annandale, VA rally and audio of Webb's Democratic Radio Address.

Webb wasn't the only one unimpressed with Allen's fiction related attack. National Review Online's Kathryn Jean Lopez calls the move "lame and unbecoming of the senator" but still bemoans MSM bias in the race. And Hot Air has video of Michelle Malkin on Fox slamming "Smutgate" calling it "desperate, pathetic, ... immature" and predicting Dems will take the House.

Back on the left, Feld calls on Sens. John McCain (R-AZ) and John Warner (R) to withdraw their endorsement of Allen and DailyKos' founder Markos Moulitsas notes that the Webb book in question is on the United States Marine Corps reading list for professional development.

TPM Cafe's Greg Sargent wants to fight fire with fire, demanding the Washington Post and New York Times seek to unseal Allen's divorce records : "So Allen has opened the door for news orgs to press hard for his divorce record -- which could tell us something of Allen's attitudes towards women, specifically his ex-wife."

Not everyone on the right is embarrassed by the Allen campaign. Erick Erickson at RedState asks Virginia: "Sure, John Mark Karr's/Jim Webb's supporters can hide behind the "it's just fiction" defense. But you really want to do that? Do you really want to defend a guy with that sort of imagination?" And AllenHQ reminds readers of Keith Olbermann's condemnation of Scooter Libby for his fiction writing.

BLOGGERS VS. BELTWAY: It's Our Party, And We'll Do What We Want To

Rep. Ellen Tauscher (D-CA) attained "Wanker of the Day" status for her comments in San Francisco Chronicle and New York Times articles on upcoming Dem "tug-of-war in own tent." MyDD's Chris Bowers singles out this offensive line: "I think there's tremendous agreement and awareness that getting the majority and running over the left cliff is what our Republican opponents would dearly love," Ms. Tauscher said. Bowers responds: "I am so unbelievably angry right now, and it takes a lot for me to fly off the handle like this. If we lose this election, it will be the fault of the Ellen Taushcers of the Democratic Party. Why should people keep giving, keep volunteering, keep infusing the party with new blood, keep building new media, keep supporting primary winners they don't like, if we are told point blank that we are not wanted?" Bowers goes on to assure Tauscher she will face "a surprisingly strong and well funded primary challenger with tons of volunteers and lots of support in the progressive media" in '08. MyDD's Matt Stoller has a similar post under the header: "On Eve of Election, New Democrats Declare Intraparty War"

Later Bowers returned to strike a more conciliatory tone: "We need a broad coalition in order to govern, and neither conservatives nor progressive will ever be thoroughly purged from a Democratic governing coalition. ... To keep the coalition together, we need to do three things. First, we all must have an ownership stake. Second, we must all agree to act within mutually agreed upon rules to resolve intra-coalition conflicts. Third, we have to all be working for each other, despite our differences."

Talk Left's Big Tent Democrat looks at the same stories and argues the MSM is trying to create differences among Dems the don't exist

ROMNEY: Stalled Out?

The MI Cooler notes that the day the Boston Globe came out with its MA Gov. Mitt Romney (R) "mormon/IRS problem" story, "Romney's Tradesports value dropped by 18% and continued to stay at a lower value as articles ran." MIC continues: "The level seems to be stabilizing but that brings into question whether an enterprising Romney supporter is buying up shares to stop the free fall. Regardless, this story clearly has hurt Romney's candidacy and stopped any momentum he had built over the summer."

THOUGHT OF THE DAY: The Ink Spot Strategy In America

MyDD's Chris Bowers looks at the aftermath from both progressive and conservative efforts "to replace so-called "moderates" with more ideologically palatable candidates" and concludes: "Republicans are trying to squeeze a more conservative country out of their base districts, and then still facing serious challenges in the general election in those base districts. By contrast, all Democratic primary challenges are followed by total Republican abandonment of the districts targeted for primaries. Bowers goes on to argue:

In other words, the 25% of the country that Republicans have abandoned tend to be closely grouped with the areas of the country where Democrats can make substantial gains this year. Basically, this means that when Republicans finally lose in many of these areas, they won't be coming back. For example, Republicans abandoned Philadelphia a long time ago, but now every seat they lose in Philadelphia suburbs this year won't be changing hands again for a long, long time. The blue, urban dots they left behind are spreading and becoming larger, as they slowly transform into full-blown blue regions.

LEST WE FORGET: Toke Me Up, Elmo

The Smoking Gun has DEA evidence photos of a hollowed out Tickle Me Elmo doll used to hide four pounds of methamphetamine as part of a 21-member CO drug operation. TSG comments: "While Elmo has never previously been linked to narcotics distribution or use, the Sesame Street character appears to have no teeth, which frequently is seen in heavy meth users."

Posted by Conn Carroll at 12:37 PM

October 28, 2006

Blogometer Update: House Edition

CA 45: Roth 'N' Roll

  The good folks working hard for unheralded Dem challenger David Roth are clearly enjoying their campaign to oust GOP Rep. Mary Bono, as TRex at Firedoglake reports.  It may be an uphill battle against this "name" incumbent and celebrity widow, but you'd never know from the zany pictures and tales from the Roth campaign--which, by the way, is travelling by RV instead of plane or bus.

  TRex introduces us to several of Roth's staff, a fun bunch including his campaign's field organizer, who when asked "what he does for the campaign, he says, 'I'm bringing "sexy" back!'"  You'll also get to meet the laughing Texan, the resident gypsy, the debate duck, and Roth himself, who plays drums in a band (and no, he's not related to David Lee Roth of Van Halen fame).

  Back to the politics, though... TRex shares an ad which has "Mrs. Bono's view of the situation in Iraq" (see it here) and is "Full-flavored, but 100% fact free!  All the inanity and none of the content!"

CO 04/05: Fawcett All And Fawcett No Regrets

  There is no better place to witness the topsy-turviness of Election '06 than in the Centennial State, where Democrats are making improbable inroads in formerly solid red zones lorded over by some of the most extreme on the right.  Take the 4th District, where GOP incumbent Rep. Marilyn Musgrave insists that gay marriage is the most important issue Americans face today (Iraq Shmiraq, hm?).  Dem challenger Angie Paccione "has been getting slammed by the Musgrave campaign and NRCC," writes Markos Moulitsas at Daily Kos, "including this ad with a disabled vet, even though Musgrave has had a terrible rating from the Disabled American Vets."  Lo and behold, a Paccione internal poll shows her in a dead heat with Musgrave, and her pollster says the difference could be even larger, "since the sample of 600 likely voters included a larger percentage of Republicans that are registered in the district," according to The Coloradoan.  If that's accurate, writes Kos, Paccione "may have weathered one of the fiercest full frontal assaults of any Democrat this cycle."

  Meanwhile, in the 5th District, home to James Dobson's Focus on the Family and myriad military establishments including the US Air Force Academy and NORAD, Democratic candidate Jay Fawcett (an Academy grad himself) is charging forward with an impressive campaign against GOP hopeful—some might say hopeless—Doug Lamborn.  Fawcett was no doubt helped by retiring GOP Rep. Joel Hefley's refusal to endorse Lamborn, calling his primary run "sleazy" and "dishonest."  Kos writes:

  [T]he NRCC is having to dump more money to try and solidify a seat that should by all means be theirs.  I was told that Cheney is actually coming to the district next week to try and bolster the Republican in the race, Doug Lamborn.  Dick Freakin' Cheney is being forced to go to James Dobson territory, a district in which Bush won with 66 percent of the vote, in order to try to save their sleazy slimebag of a candidate against the impressive Jay Fawcett.

  The DCCC has given the Fawcett campaign money to buy into the state's coordinated campaign (which will handle field), and there is a second GOTV effort being put together by -- get this -- the Republicans for Fawcett operation.  This has always been a longshot race, but it may the only race in the country where Republicans are actively working to elect the Democratic candidate.

CT 04/05: Connectiklutzes

  Just when one might think the Chris Shays goob-athon is ebbing, along comes a new allegation in The New Republic about the incumbent GOP congressman.  Ben Adler at The American Prospect's TAPPED has the goods:

  Garance has a piece in The New Republic that should deliver a death blow to Shays.  Apparently Shays has taken to bragging about his first venture into Iraq, leaving out the part about how, stopping en route in Qatar, a small middle-Eastern monarchy, he told an audience: "This nation, like my small state, has always played a large role in advancing participatory democracy, civil discourse, and stable commerce."  But the scandal wasn't his royal ass-kissing -- it was how Shays, with his famously holier-than-thou stance on ethics, got there in the first place.

  Adler then quotes Garance Franke-Ruta at TNR:

  ... despite his record of pushing for meticulous record-keeping, Shays's privately sponsored trip to Qatar was notably absent from his own annual federal financial disclosure form, filed in May 2004, in violation of House rules.  Nor did he submit an amendment disclosing the sponsor of his Qatar trip until confronted in mid-October 2006 by The New Republic with internal Islamic Institute receipts for his plane tickets, which were provided by an Arab American source upset with Shays's foreign policy positions.

  Commenter Patience remarks, emphasis as is:

  You're kind of burying the most fascinating finding, which is this: [T]he Islamic Institute sought and received $143,150.93 from the [Qatari] foreign ministry days before Shays boarded the plane to Doha... as reimbursement for, among other things, the congressman's travel.  Shays's aides sounded winded by this revelation.  The Constitution prohibits members of Congress from taking funds from foreign governments or their agents.

  Then we have incumbent GOP Rep. Nancy Johnson in the 5th.  She has a new ad against Dem challenger Chris Murphy, viewable here.  Matt Stoller at MyDD is not only not impressed, he's insulted by the effort.  He quips, "This ad has the advantage of being stupid, crass, and memorable all at once, the perfect vehicle for an entitled and bratty Nancy Johnson."

ID 01: Grant And Rave

  mcjoan at Daily Kos is nothing if not a believer.  And she definitely believes Dem candidate Larry Grant has a good chance of topping GOP challenger Bill Sali mostly on his own in what is historically a very conservative state.  "It's almost become conventional wisdom for this cycle that all of the GOP's woes can be summed up by looking at Idaho," she writes.  "The national press loves a Cinderella story, and Democrats in Idaho fit the bill."  She continues:

  To date, no independent expenditures have gone to the Grant campaign.  What the campaign has received, however, is a state party organization that stretches through the district.  When Howard Dean took over at the DNC, the Idaho Dems had one and a half staff people.  The party was disorganized, demoralized, and stretched to the limit.  The party now has five permanent staff and has been able to hire field coordinators.

  ... The good news with that is that there aren't any strings being pulled by outside forces, some of which are happy to offer lots of advice now that Grant's campaign is in the national spotlight.  Grant has the freedom to continue his thus far successful strategy in the campaign.  That strategy included "buying Idaho."

  An impressively telling sign that Grant is making waves is the news that Vice President Dick Cheney is making a stop in Idaho next week.  Just visiting, you know.  Maybe do a little hunting.  That's it.  No other reason.  "For all the coyness," writes mcjoan, "it seems pretty damned unlikely that a week and a half before the election Sali and Cheney just happen to be in the same remote Idaho town.  Maybe now the DCCC will take Idaho as seriously as the GOP does.

NY 03: Long Glib The King

  Markos Moulitsas at Daily Kos gets a kick out of the latest audacious remark from the blustery incumbent GOP Rep. Peter King.  In a video viewable here, King refers to the AARP and NAACP as "radical organizations," to which the audience responds with chuckles, giggles, and even a few guffaws.  "Like all NY Republicans," Kos writes, "Peter King is in serious danger of being swept out in a terrible year for the NY GOP."

  His challenger, Dem upstart Dave Mejias, is no pushover either.  Mejias is accusing King of lying about his son not being a lobbyist, and lying that his son "doesn't work with clients with business before him or his committee," while a video suggests otherwise, as reported at Newsday.  King denies everything and calls Mejias "desperate."  No word on whether Mejias guffawed about the characterization.

PA 02: Stepping In Your Own Schmidt

  "I've always wondered whether Jean Schmidt (R-OH) might eventually be kicked out of the House just for being stupid," writes Josh Marshall at Talking Points Memo.  "Not likely given the general level of excellence in the body."  And with that, he fills us in on Schmidt's latest gaffery:

  Schmidt's opponent Victoria Wulsin (D) just went on the air with an ad [viewable here] lambasting Schmidt's notorious statement from the House floor where she called congressman and Marine corps veteran John Murtha a coward.  Didn't go over that well, if you remember.  And after making up a few lies about it, Schmidt had to apologize.

  Apparently the ad has the Schmidt camp worried.  So they hit back hard by pointing out that the ad breaks House Rule V, which prohibits recordings of House proceedings from being used in political advertisements.  "Her continued violation will land her in serious trouble with the House Ethics Committee," barked Schmidt spokesman Matt Perin.

  "Only, as the Wulsin camp pointed out," Marshall wraps, "House Rules don't apply to people who aren't members of the House.  Doh!"

[Mike Sheehan]

Posted by Conn Carroll at 08:00 PM

October 27, 2006

10/27: Is Drudge Still King?

Ex-Navy Sec. James Webb's (D) novel's graphic sex scenes are not news to regular readers of righty blogs. Right Wing News excerpted some of the same passages quoted by Drudge Report back on 9/29, yet lefty bloggers paid no heed, and the Webb camp did not feel the need to respond. Drudge may not write enough to be considered a blogger, but his ability to drive a story still makes him a power in the online world.

LANDSCAPE: Projections Are Like Noses

Pollster.com unveiled their latest House scorecard 10/26 showing "219 seats in the Democratic column and 193 in the Republican column, with 23 seats showing neither candidate with a statistically meaningful lead." On the left, MyDD's Chris Bowers currently projects: "a Democratic gain of 24-29 seats, an improvement from 21-28 in the previous projection. Most, if not all, of this improvement comes from Upstate New York."

National Review Online's Rich Lowry forwards "an insider's take" on 47 close house races including seven "seats that look like they're gone." Lowry later adds six more "goners" and three "almost gone"s. Also at National Review Online, Kathryn Jean Lopez taps her own "regular Smart Hill Guys" for this take: "On a bad night, we can lose 30 seats. But, if we have solid performance over the next 13 days and the news cycle doesn't kill us, it could be a night of very close wins maintaining a close majority of 2 or 3. One thing is for certain, Iraq is a devastating issue for most of these races, and yesterday's press conference gave away another news cycle."

At RCP Blog, Jay Cost argues that the more engaged candidates are, the better the GOP is doing: " This is the case even for when Democratic candidates become engaged. Democratic spending is actually helpful to the Republican. ... All in all, the district's attention shifts from the national to the local. This enhances the Republican position."

On the left, Talking Points Memo invites readers to "go on the record with your predictions for election day" at their Talking Points Memo Community Pool. And on the right, Captain's Quarters and Right Angle Blog urge readers to give "one final round of contributions" for "ten candidates that we feel have the best opportunity to win their races" including Michele Bachmann (MN-06), Mike Bouchard (MI), Max Burns (GA-12), John Gard (WI-08), Thomas Kean (NJ), Mike McGavick (WA), David McSweeney (IL-08), Ray Meier (NY-24), Peter Roskam (IL-06), and Michael Steele (MD).

LANDSCAPE II: What Are We Fighting For?

MyDD's Jonathan Singer notes "the post-election debate over what type of mandate voters have given the winning party is already being shaped" and points to Ipsos Public Affairs polling showing "Likely Voters Favor Dems overs GOPers On Every Issue." Singer presses Dems to spin the election results as a "rejection of failed Republican policies" and "a complete embrace of the Democratic agenda" so that Pres. Bush cannot "stymie" Dem bills "without being upbraided by the political press." Also on the left, TPM Muckraker's Justin Rood adds Sen. Olympia Snowe (R-ME) and Rep. Ann Northup (R-KY) to a list of ten GOPers "saying Defense Secretary Donald Rumsfeld should be gone."

Captain's Quarters has highlights from a roundtable discussion on the economy and the upcoming elections featuring Reason's Nick Gillespie, Think Progress' Judd Legum, hosted by AP's Otis Hart. Power Line's John Hinderaker also keeps the focus on the economy with a "classic horror movie" examining "the consequences of Democrat victory on our tax code."

CT SEN: From San Francisco With Love

Busy in San Francisco, CA on his Audacity of Hope book tour, Sen. Barack Obama (D-IL) "sent out an email to his CT list supporting" cable exec Ned Lamont (D) 10/26. The official Lamont Blog posts Obama's message including: "Ned earned the Democratic Senate nomination through his hard work and clear message. And his victory paved the way for an entire crop of Democratic challengers to stand up and fight for the common good." Atrios comments: "This is no small thing given Lieberman was who he chose as his mentor in the Senate. Not the hugest thing, but still."

Sen. Joe Lieberman (I) had Sen. Mary Landrieu (D-LA) campaigning for him in Hartford, CT. MyDD's Matt Stoller wasn't impressed: "Landrieu is probably the worst Democratic Senator in the caucus, with the possible exception of Max Baucus. She's an utter Bush sycophant, even going above and beyond the reddish tinge of Louisiana. If you're looking for a reason that New Orleans is still devastated today, you have to look to her utter failure of leadership in forcing Bush to do anything to deal with the situation."

Over at My Left Nutmeg, Matt Browner Hamlin hopes the FEC will get movement going on the "Lieberman petty cash scandal.' Hamlin writes: "The FEC is required to let the Lamont campaign know if their complaint meets the required criteria for an investigation by their general counsel within five days of it's submission. The complaint was submitted on October 23rd, so the FEC is required to let Tom Swan know if the case will move forward by October 28tth."

MD SEN: Cardin Surrogateless?

Righty bloggers are excited about LG Michael Steele (R) performance in 10/26 debate with Rep. Ben Cardin (D-03). Ian at Hot Air has video highlights and writes: "The best doesn't come until the end, when Steele quizzed Cardin on plans for a metro system in the Baltimore area. Cardin failed miserably." Erick Erickson at RedState notes: "At a time when Ben Cardin should be sailing toward victory, he has yet to shore up his own base. The difficulty in doing so is compounded by the fact that he can't get black voters enthusiastic about him. It's a telling sign that none one of Maryland's black elected congressmen has appeared on TV or radio championing Ben Cardin."

MO SEN: Rush To Judgment

Michelle Malkin has dubbed this race "The Rush Limbaugh referendum" writing "if unhinged Limbaugh-haters want to make this election a referendum on the conservative talk radio right vs. the Hollywood left, Nancy Pelosi should toss her measuring tape and drape fabric in the trash can pronto. You will lose."

None on the left are giving any ground. Atrios looks at Katie Couricquestioning of Michael J. Fox on the issue and writes: "The conservative movement is sick, and I don't think there's anyone around willing to try to heal it."

National Review Online has video of Laura Ingraham arguing that Amendment 2 legalizes cloning and Erick Erickson at RedState claims: "There have now been three polls in Missouri taken during or after Michael J. Fox appeared on St. Louis television screens. ... Jim Talent is ahead for three polls in a row by three points in two polls and by two points in another, something that he hasn't seen in some time."

NJ SEN: Chris Matthews, Defender Of Ethnics Everywhere

Righty bloggers have Chris Matthews in their sites for his 10/26 suggestion that the GOP is "playing ethnic politics" with their Soprano's spoof ad attacking Sen. Bob Menendez (D) on ethics. National Review Online's Stephen Spruiell has video and writes: "Stop it Chris Matthews. You and people who share your weird, racial paranoia are poisoning the national debate and hurting the country."

At RedState, Liz Mair provides a non-racist explanation for the ad: "I guess they've have failed to notice that Menendez, their posterboy, is a grade-A scumbag plagued by allegations of corruption and, well, generally being a crook. ... Perhaps that's why the ad intimates a link between a mafioso crook and Menendez-- and not because Menendez is Hispanic and the mafioso is (presumably) Italian-American (i.e., both "ethnics")? Seems a pretty obvious point to me, but then I'm not a member of a party dumb enough to allow him in its ranks, am I?"

Captain's Quarters offers GOPers good news noting the latest CBS poll showing Menendez up 40%-39% over State Sen. Tom Kean (R) "underpolled independents and overpolled both Democrats and Republicans, especially Democrats. They increased Democrats by 48% of their actual standing and Republicans by only 21%, while reducing independents by 40 percent."

TN SEN: Welcome To The Jungle

Lefty bloggers are claiming to see "a racist pattern is emerging from the Republican consultants driving the anti-Ford campaign in Tennessee." TPM Cafe's Greg Sargent follows up on the ex-Chattanooga mayor Bob Corker (R) radio ad he claims uses "jungle drums." The Corker campaign responded to Sargent noting another pro-Corker ad used the same drums with out mentioning Ford. Sargent invites readers to listen to bothads and writes: "While it's true that the same music is playing in the ad, and it's true that there is some sort of drumming audible, it's still dramatically different from the radio ad, which pumps up the very loud rumble of drums every single time Ford's name is mentioned. They're just not comparable."

Sargent also links to a story in the Jewish Daily Forward on a TN GOP flyer which is about taxes and does not mention Ford but does use the phrase: "Vote early to preserve your way of life." The forward notes "in earlier decades, some white leaders used similar language in opposing civil rights for blacks." At Talking Points MemoJosh Marshall notes Corker's website refers to Ford as "an attractive young man" and asks: "What's Bob Corker's deal with Harold Ford's sex life?"

At The Huffington Post Arianna Huffington sees a silver lining in the "sleaze" the GOP is "raining down on TN" since it shows how desperate they are. Matthew Yglesias, on the other hand, thinks the Dems are playing into the GOP's hands.

Righty bloggers are not buying the racial element to the ad at all. National Review Online's Stephen Spruiell: "Only a racially paranoid moron could listen to this ad and concoct this loony "jungle drums" conspiracy."

Finally, RedState has another podcast with Corker.

VA SEN: National Review Not As Sensitive As They used To Be

At first Cornerites Rich Lowry and Kathryn Jean Lopez were dismissive of Drudge Report's Sen. George Allen (R) press release highlighting "graphic underage sex scenes" in novels by ex-Navy Sec. James Webb. But their in-boxes suggested the issue might matter. Lopez forwards this note: "Maybe you guys in Manhattan are desensitized to this filth, but the people of Roanoke, Lynchburg, Blacksburg, Fredericksburg, etc., aren't. And no way will these voters EVER accept the argument that it's only fiction." Wizbang also argues the story will hurt Webb.

Right Wing News reminds readers he exposed some of the same passages back on 9/29 and writes: "In case you're wondering, I did send an email to Drudge on Sept 29, 2006 and Oct 17, 2006. Whether he just didn't read them, read them and chose not to link, or whether he read them and waited for a timely opportunity to spring them, I don't know."

Lefty blogger reaction was swift and voluminous. The Huffington Post has entries from Steve Gilliard, James Boyce, Marty Kaplan, and Taylor Marsh on the subject.

Talking Points Memo's Josh Marshall suggests Dems respond by going after Allen's sealed divorce records and Daily Kos diarist thereisnospoon suggest Webb claim "that these passages were based on actual experiences from the hellhole of Vietnam."

In other news, Webb's Netroots Coordinator and Raising Kaine founder Lowell Feld notes Allen is using the same "racist" ad man that ex-Chattanooga mayor Bob Corker is using in TN.

National Review Online's Kathryn Jean Lopez forwards "An Important Message from Dr. James Dobson" to his "Virginia Friend"s including: "Sadly, one of your candidates-James Webb-is a die-hard supporter of abortion.

Finally, Captain's Quarters has Part I of an interview with Allen including:

CQ: Republican leaders have spoken about the threat of Democratic control of the House in order to ensure a strong turnout from the GOP base. In your estimation, what are the biggest problems that would create for a Republican-controlled Senate and the White House?

GA: I am concerned that a number of the positive policies we've been working on will be threatened - tax relief for families and small businesses, measures to keep our homeland safe, and reasonable tort reforms just to name a few. If we don't make these tax relief provisions permanent, they start expiring in 2008.

BAYH: Striking Out In The Clutch

Talking Points Memo's Josh Marshall notes Sen. John Kerry (D-MA) recently ponied up $500k and asks: "What about Evan Bayh? He's sitting on a ton of cash. Have we heard from him yet? It's hard to imagine any Democrat taking a presidential contender seriously next year when they left the whole team hanging at the clutch moment."

ROMNEY: What Year Is It Again?

While manyrightybloggers are still approvingly passing around video of MA Gov. Mitt Romney's rebuke of a Boston Globe reporter, Sen. John McCain (R-AZ) blogger aide Patrick Hynes is feuding with pro-Romney bloggers over Team Romney's response to Globe revelations that Romney intends to utilize Mormon Church connections as part of his '08 Wh run.

The Hedgehog Blog writes about an earlier Hynes post on Romney: "The Ankle-Biting Pundits piece is a breathtakingly nasty, disingenuous, and dirty slam. It clearly tries to gin up a story out of nothing-- recycling old quotes (at least one of them out of context) that were not even made in reference to the Boston Globe story. It really looks like something a political consultant for one of Romney's likely opponents would cook up.

Hynes responds with a timeline of the Romney/Mormon Church story highlighting his defenses of Romney throughout the matter. Hynes concludes: "So there you have it. Just the facts. Decide for yourselves. As for me, I continue to maintain that Romney has every right to seek the support of the Mormon community, though he should not use church resources to do it. The only question that remains is whether or not the Romney folks want to keep talking about this ... because I'll be happy to talk about it all year."

BLOGGERS VS. BELTWAY: Bombs Away

Due in part to a suspicion that some in the media "might want to use my very small campaign as a way to paint progressives and Democrats as a whole in a negative light" MyDD's Chris Bowers is done answering media inquries about his Google Bombing campaign, but does defend it:

There are three main differences between the campaign I started and other, similar campaigns. First, I did it out in the open with full transparency on my blog, using my name, and with my email in full view. Second, it is much more wide ranging, since it has multiple, simultaneous targets. Third, and most importantly, instead of targeting campaign talking points such as "flip flopper" or "miserable failure," this campaign worked to only use non-partisan media reports. No talking points. No opinion columns. A bare minimum use of alternative media. In other words, this campaign works solely to push news reports made by trusted, mainstream news outlets into the foreground during the final two weeks of the campaign season.

Right Wing News has no qualms about his parallel campaign ehich he updates readers on: "It's 3 days later -- which isn't very long -- and so far, 11 of the links to our first 45 targets have made it into the top 20. ... On the left, they had 52 targets and 18 made it in the top 20. ... Also, there tend to be a lot more negative articles about Republican candidates in the top 20 to begin with, so when you break it down, we're probably running about even." RWN then launches a new campaign, this time linking to negative YouTube videos. On RWN's target list: cable exec Ned Lamont (D-CT).

THOUGHT OF THE DAY: It's All Relative

Reacting to Kausfiles claims that gay rights have been progressing at "breathtaking speed" The Washington Monthly's Kevin Drum writes:

The Stonewall riots happened in 1969. Domestic partnership laws started springing up in the 70s and 80s. Sullivan wrote "Here Comes the Groom," an article for the New Republic that defended gay marriage, in 1989. The Hawaii Supreme Court ruled in 1993 that the state needed to show a "compelling state interest" in order to continue denying gay people the right to marry. Vermont passed a civil union law in 2000. Currently, we're in the year 2006. Is this "breathtaking speed"? It doesn't seem like it to me, unless you want to make the case that broad social changes literally shouldn't happen until every generation that objects to them has died off. But where would that leave the Feiler Faster Thesis?

LEST WE FORGET: Speaking Of Waves

The APreports Krazy George Henderson is celebrating the 25th anniversary of the creation of the "wave" during game four of the Oakland Athletics playoff loss to the New York Yankees in '81. The AP quotes Krazy: "It's been really interesting ... I see it at the Olympics. There's a video of Fidel Castro doing it. If it had actually originated in New York at a Yankees game, they would have thought it was sent by the gods."

Posted by Conn Carroll at 12:42 PM

October 26, 2006

Blogometer Extra

AL GOV: Nall's To The Wall

  You might have heard of Loretta Nall, the Libertarian write-in candidate in Alabama's gubernatorial race.  She gained recent notoriety for a print ad in which she appears with her ample cleavage just above the words "More of these BOOBS!!" while pictures of 'Bama politicians are on the bottom, framed by "And Less Of these BOOBS!!"

  Jeralyn at TalkLeft endorses Nall, and not just because she's a "long-time reader" with whom "we've emailed several times over the years."  Despite the press coverage, Nall is serious about her run and is pushing four key platform points, to wit:

Legalize marijuana;

End the Iraq War;

Don't comply with the Patriot Act;

Legalize the state's undocumented immigrants.

  Nall just appeared on Keith Olbermann's show (vid here) and says if she loses the race, "she'll run for Congress in 2008," taking on a whole new set of boobs.

AZ 01: Feeding Renzi

  The press is salivating over what could turn out to be yet another Congressional implosion, namely the campaign of incumbent GOP Rep. Rick Renzi.  Josh Marshall at Talking Points Memo has the scoop (or scoops, as it were):

  Just a short while ago we alerted you to the AP story breaking the news that Renzi is the subject of a federal investigation centering on a shady land deal.  We'd been working on that story too.  And a short time after the AP story broke, TPMmuckraker.com followed up with more details we have about the transaction and the subsequent investigation.

  Because of that we weren't surprised to see the New York Times following on these stories with their own piece about the Renzi probe.

  But I got a bit more surprised when I read the Times piece by David Johnston and realized that they were reporting an investigation into what appears to be an entirely separate bad act.  This one's about an investigation into a piece of legislation Renzi introduced to help what the Times calls a telecom company that happens to employ his Renzi's father.

AR GOV: Kos's Ark

  Markos Moulitsas over at Daily Kos is gloating over new SurveyUSA figures which show Dems are set to "sweep the state" in the gubernatorial division.  "With a sweep of the statewide offices, two US senators, three of four congressional seats, 27 of 35 state senate seats, and 72 of 100 state house seats," Kos writes, "Arkansas is well on its way to becoming a ... Democratic state," making one-party rule sound like a good thing.

CT 04: Shayskopf

  Noting that he's "taken more and more stands with which we have profound disagreement," the New York Times pulls its past support for incumbent GOP Rep. Chris Shays and instead endorses Dem opponent Diane Farrell, Greg Sargent reports at TPMCafe.  More from the endorsement:

  [In the past,] The Times chose to endore [Shays] as a rare voice for moderation within a Republican caucus that seemed bent on distracting the electorate with assaults on gay marriage, flag burning and abortion while running up the deficit, encouraging a ruinous war in Iraq and supporting a White House bent on exalting the power of the president at the expense of the Constitution.

  Now it is time to draw the line.  Mr. Shays may be a beacon of integrity, but if he is re-elected, he will vote to continue House control by a party that has repeatedly sold out the country to special-interest lobbyists.

  While DemFromCT remarks at Daily Kos that "this should make at least a small difference," Sargent feels that it "could tip the race."

ID GOV: Otter Pops

  mcjoan at Daily Kos, writing from Idaho, says to "relish the thought that this deep red state is starting to tinge just a little bit purple."

  What's prompting mcjoan's glee is a new poll that puts Dem candidate for Gov Jerry Brady finally ahead of GOPer Butch Otter after a year and a half of, in Rumsfeldian terms, hard slog.  (mcjoan notes that the race is more accurately a dead heat, but "a dead heat in Idaho two weeks before the election" is good enough.)

  So why the sinking Otter and the bouncing Brady?  mcjoan explains:

Brady ... hit particularly hard on the public lands issue.  It resonates in this land where hunting, fishing, and outdoor recreation reign.  And against Butch Otter particularly, who earned the wrath of many westerners when he co-sponsored legislation for a massive one time sell-off of western public lands for Hurricane Katrina relief. ...

  The public lands issue can't be oversold in a state like Idaho... Otter's support for the sell-off alone accounts for the overwhelming support Brady has received from all of the hunting and fishing organizations.  Not only do these sites provide for recreation for the states' residents, they are the backbone to the growing tourism industry in both states--dollars that shore up both states' economies.  It's hard to overestimate the resonance Brady's theme "Idaho is Not For Sale" has with Idaho voters.

  But he's also been doing work on the ground.  He's been to every one of Idaho's 44 counties and has organized all over the state.  His opponent has approached this race from the beginning with the sense that it was his birthright, though he did take a cynical step or two to make himself more palatable to the state's more morally conservative voters, particularly the Mormons.  He finally married his girlfriend of ten years (after they both got annulments from their previous marriages).

IN 03: Making Hayhurst

  James L. at Swing State Project takes note of something amazing building in Indiana's 3rd District.

  Recently, Democrats added Dem challenger Tom Hayhurst, in a "longshot" race against GOP incumbent Rep. Mark Souder, to its list of hot races.  "At the time," James writes, "I was skeptical, being inclined to believe that the move was merely a recognition of Hayhurst's fairly good fundraising more than anything else."  But lo, what light through yonder tunnel end breaks?

  I might have to change my mind, though, after I read this Hotline piece, detailing the NRCC's decision to buy $72,000 worth of ad time for Souder.  That's not a large amount, but at the same time, it shouldn't be necessary for the NRCC to buy any ad time at all in a district this reliably Republican.

  The NRCC is fanning their money around wide.  Mighty wide, it seems, for a piece of it to end up defending their hold on IN-03.

MN 05: Oh Ellison, My Aim Is True

  John continues Power Line's jihad against Democrat Keith Ellison's candidacy for the open 5th District seat, and can't help but gloat a little that someone other than Blogometer and a few schadenfreudal voyeurs are taking note.  Apparently.  John writes:

  [W]ord of the seamier side of Ellison's character appears to have percolated into the awareness of quite a few voters, mainly through Scott's efforts.  How else explain the fact that CAIR, a terrorist-linked organization, has bought time on local television for an ad that tries to distance the Muslim religion from mass murder?

  CAIR's effort is fundamentally misguided, I think, and attacks a straw man.  The relevant question is not whether Muslims in general support terrorism.  The questions are 1) whether CAIR, Ellison's patron, supports terrorism, and 2) whether Ellison himself has a long history of advocacy in favor of gang members and other criminals who murder and attempt to murder policemen.  CAIR's ad, needless to say, sheds no light on these issues.

  But it may shed some light on whether Ellison is cruising to victory quite so easily as had been expected in Minnesota's heavily Democratic 5th District.

NY 24: Arcuri Hears A Horton

  Robert B. Bluey at the conservative Human Events's The Ballot Box openly admits that a recent GOP ad "attacking Democrat Mike Arcuri's record as district attorney ... strikes a theme similar to the Willie Horton ad that sank Michael Dukakis' presidential ambitions in 1988.  (The ad is viewable here.)  Bluey writes:

  The ad begins with a photo of a man named Thomas Griffiths, who the announcer says served time for felony sex abuse and was later jailed for another sex crime.  After Griffiths cooperated with the Oneida County district attorney's office, one of Arcuri's deputies wrote a letter on Griffiths' behalf to the parole board.  But Griffiths was arrested again after his release, leading the announcer to accuse Arcuri of breaking his promise to "create a safer community."

  What type of impact will the ad have on Arcuri?  There's no question that the attacks on his character are will pay off to some degree on November 7.  Whether voters decide to stay home or simply refuse to pull the lever for someone they view with suspicion (thanks in part to the stir created by the phone-sex ad last week), it's a strategy the NRCC seems eager to push from now until Election Day.

  Stepping away from the slight "ick" factor, meanwhile, Bluey throws some light on--oh yeah!--the GOP candidate for the open seat, Ray Meier, a "solid conservative who is running this competitive race."

NC 11: Tattle Taylor

  Jonathan Singer at < a href="http://www.mydd.com/story/2006/10/25/142120/68">MyDD is covering the latest in another of the seemingly endless parade of GOP Congressmen being probed, investigated, scrutinized etc. in the final weeks of the election season.

&nsbp; Taylor's folly, it seems, are "shady land deals" that have incumbent GOP Rep. Charles Taylor "in some heat."  Singer quotes from The Hill:

  Public land records in Haywood County, N.C., show that a company registered to [Taylor] owns 17 plots of land in the mountain community of Maggie Valley, an interest that tax records indicate is worth more than $500,000.

The records raise questions about an assertion Taylor made in an Oct. 12 statement, part of a strong public defense mounted by the House Appropriations "cardinal" after a Wall Street Journal report alleged this month that Taylor steered federal funds to projects that would benefit businesses in which he has an interest.

  Taylor, Singer notes, is "already facing his fair share of scandals," including one involving, in a roundabout way, the KGB (!).  "In short," says Singer, "this guy exudes the stench of corruption (or at least ethical impropriety), and the news that he lied about his land holdings in an effort to distract voters from yet another scandal isn't going to change many minds in his favor."

PA 04: Hart In The Right Place

  Jay Cost at The RealClearPolitics Blog gets wind of some recent poll data showing incumbent GOP Rep. Melissa Hart with "only a 4% lead, with 11% undecided" against upstart Dem Jason Altmire.  Cause for alarm?  Au contraire, writes Cost:

  This week I hypothesized that one reason that second- and third-tier districts show soft GOP leads was because GOP candidates had yet to unload their expansive war chests.  Accordingly, voters were still "floating" with the national news media and their assessment of the mood.  This district would be an archetypical example if this hypothesis is true.  Hart, as of 10/1, had more than $1.1 million in the bank, compared to Altmire's $275 K.  By that date, she had only spent $763 K.  According to the theory I offered: when she unloads that war chest, these numbers will move in her direction.  The internals of the poll are consistent with this "floating" hypothesis. ...

  It seems that Altmire's support does not seem to reflect genuine pro-Altmire sentiment, but rather a general political mood.  Hart can, and will, spend $2 million in all to define both him and herself -- setting herself apart from what the district is upset about, and casting Altmire as an unacceptable alternative to what frustrates the voters.  And Altmire lacks the cash to respond.

  In other words, money talks and... well, you know the rest.  Cost helpfully points out that "this poll is a sign that the GOP is going to have to spend money to defend its 'outer-rim' districts... I think money will save all of them, but money is what is needed. 

  "That," wraps the coincidentally-named Cost, "is the price they must pay for their unpopularity."

WY AL: Rankin Yanker

  "Seriously, what is it Republicans and their tempers this cycle?" asks Markos Moulitsas at Daily Kos.  "They're cracking under the pressure."

  He's speaking of the incident in which incumbent GOP Rep. Barbara Cubin "went psycho on the disabled, wheelchair-bound Libertarian candidate Thomas Rankin."  Per the Casper Star Tribune:

  The verbal sparring between two candidates for Wyoming's lone U.S. House seat didn't end when the televised debate ended Sunday evening.

  Immediately after the lights and cameras shut down, incumbent Republican U.S. Rep. Barbara Cubin walked to Libertarian candidate Thomas Rankin, who had criticized her for receiving contributions from former House Speaker Tom Delay, R-Texas.

  "'If you weren't sitting in that chair, I'd slap you across the face,'" Cubin told Rankin, he said Monday.

  What specifically smoked Cubin's cigar?  Per her spokesman, Rankin "misrepresented her and insulted her integrity during the debate."  Kos doesn't buy it, noting that Cubin has taken over $22 grand from Tom DeLay's ARMPAC.  "Rankin told the truth," writes Kos.  "So what the hell was Barbara Cubin's problem?  She's feeling the heat, that's her problem."

  For her part, Cubin later apologized, and it remains to be seen whether anyone actually in "blood-red Wyoming" was even paying attention.

[Mike Sheehan]

Posted by Conn Carroll at 06:03 PM

10/26: Iraq Is King

If you were hoping gay marriage, stem cells, or new Foley scandal revelations would bounce Iraq out of the top issue spot this cycle, you're gonna be disappointed. Perhaps court decisions granting marriage rights to gays just don't carry the shock value they used to. But whatever the reason, few bloggers are predicting the issue will be a boon for the GOP this time around. Instead, local issues/scandals are dominating even the nat'l 'sphere. In TN, race baiting is front and center, while MD and MO races have bloggers focussed on stem cells. But everywhere, Iraq is the underlying issue. The one keeping Pres. Bush away from districts where he took 62% in '04.

GAY MARRIAGE: October Unsurprise

Plenty of blogger reaction to New Jersey Supreme Court's decision to grant gay couples the same marriage rights as straight couples, but little of it election focussed. National Review Online's Kathryn Jean Lopez suggests the Family Research Council "folks" she recently was with "now have their reason to vote" but she also doesn't believe the decision will help State Sen. Tom Kean Jr. (R) since "he's against a federal marriage amendment."

Kausfiles suggests Dems may have dodged a "Big Gay Bullet" when the court granted gay couples rights without calling it marriage thus avoiding "having the state instantly become, in AP's pre-anticipatory words, "the nation's gay wedding chapel." Hot Air's Allahpundit also sees "no effect" for the GOP this fall. Right Angle Blog's Chris Field, however, does argue that the "The N.J. court just gave the Republican Party a major campaign issue."

Non-election related reaction spanned the spectrum from AMERICAblog criticising the court for not going far enough, to National Review Online readers asking if they could now marry their mother.

Andrew Sullivan and Instapundit both approve of the decision, though Sullivan is the most happy: "I think this is a perfectly sane compromise. It's what the Brits have done. Leave the m-word to the churches; but let the state grant equal protection under the law. The Christianists can no longer claim that we are redefining civil marriage in New Jersey. We're just being fair to gay couples who, as citizens, have every right to be treated equally under the law.

Elsewhere The Volokh Conspiracy argues "this decision, whether you like it or not, seems to be an illustration that the slippery slope is a real phenomenon." And Captain's Quarters suggest "true libertarians would argue that government should stop sanctioning marriages altogether and just treat them at the contractual level."

STEM CELLS: Apparently, Lefty Bloggers Don't Like Rush Limbaugh

Crooks and Liars has video from Keith Olbermann's Countdown showing conservative talk radio host Rush Limbaugh imitating Michael J. Fox's Parkinson symptoms. Lefties were appalled:

• Josh Marshall at Talking Points Memo: "The man's a blight. As I said below, making fun of people suffering from a debilitating disease would send most folks into a career crisis. As TPM Reader DC says, "He's vile; a real pig and a terrible terrible commentary on the state of our national life."
• AMERICAblog: "Limbaugh is doing the GOP's dirty work. The candidates know it. Their failure to criticize Rush speaks volumes. So, they own Rush. Every reporter covering these races should be asking Talent, Steele and Green if they agree with the hero of the GOP, Rush Limbaugh."
• Russell Shaw at The Huffington Post: "Rush knew full well what he was saying. A native Missourian, he made the charges against Fox for political reasons. Rush is playing to the conservative base in Missouri. The folks that maybe with Mel Gibson excepted, reflexively don't like Hollywood-even a polite actor such as Fox.
• Firedoglake's Jane Hamsher: "Rush is paid, and valued, for his role in getting that kind of ugly stuff into circulation. And those like Brian Williams or Howard Kurtz (who claims that Rush is "so mainstream") don't seem to care that he does this stuff all the time.
• The Washington Monthly's Kevin Drum: "Actually, I'm sort of happy to see this. Too often it's been liberals who respond to tough ads with whining, but now conservatives are doing it instead - and it's a sign of weakness. If conservatives want to defend Talent's position, they should go right ahead and do so. But accusing Michael J. Fox of faking his symptoms and then complaining that a 30-second spot isn't a Brookings white paper? That shows a kind of helpless desperation that it's nice to see on the other side for once."

On the right, Townhall's Dean Barnett answers eleven questions about the Fox ad including whether or not it will be effective: "It won't be effective. One of the key maxims in advertising is never disquiet the audience. If you do, you alienate them. This ad is most definitely disquieting."

RedState's Erick Erickson offers a fullthroated defense of Limbaugh: "To be clear, Rush said that he thought Michael J. Fox was either acting or off his meds in that commercial. In fact, Michael J. Fox has admitted to going off his medicine when he wants to make a point about Parkinson's Disease. In fact, if you've seen Michael J. Fox on TV in the last year, you'll note that his tremors were much more pronounced in the political stunt from this past Sunday." And Kathryn Jean Lopez at National Review Online explains how Jim Caveziel's Aramaic phrase in the Fox response ad relates to MO's Amendment 2.

TERROR POLITICS: Bush As Lucy

Many lefty bloggers had video of a new DNC ad up and running even before Pres. Bush's 10/25 press conference. TPM Cafe's Greg Sargent summarizes: "The ad shows Bush, Dick Cheney and Tony Snow repeating "stay the course" no less than 15 times before abruptly pivoting to Bush saying: "Listen, we've never been stay the course." The coup de grace: "Mr. President, America deserves more than a change in rhetoric. America deserves a change in strategy."

AMERICAblog's John Aravosis live-blogged the news conference, beseeching the media to toughen up on Bush: "Okay media: where's the substantial statement on Iraq? You were DUPED again by the White House. You are all like Charlie Brown kicking the football. The Bush team does this to you over and over. It's a scam for free air time on all the networks. The funny thing is that this time, it hurts the GOP. Bush is making Iraq THE ONLY ISSUE and that hurts the Republicans."

Firedoglake's Christy Hardin Smith doesn't like MSM talk of Bush's "honesty" at the press conference and argues that the Pres. did not offer any meaningful change to his Iraq policy except for the addition of benchmarks that the Maliki government must meet. And on those benchmarks, at The Huffington PostStephen Kaus wants to know what the administration's plan is if the Maliki government misses any of them.

Bush also received righty blogger criticism on the benchmark question. National Review Online's Mario Loyola: "The administration needs to explain its own benchmarks to the American people-in a way that avoids causing a fight with the Maliki government. So far, it seems to be failing on both counts - and that is NOT a course this administration wants to stay on."

Finally, The Plank's Ryan Lizza notes that Rep. John Hostettler (R-IN) has an ad out "touting his vote against the war" and that the Hoosier "won't even allow Bush to visit the district" despite his 62%in 2004.

TERROR POLITICS II: Bush As Vexed

Pres. Bush sat down with conservative journalists 10/25 including Michael Barone, Tony Blankley, Daniel Henninger, Charles Krauthammer, Lawrence Kudlow, Kathleen Parker, Mark Steyn, and Byron York. York writes:

At times during the conversation, the president seemed vexed - not beaten, not downcast, but vexed - by conditions in Iraq. Bush didn't say so, but from his words it seemed hard to deny that in some significant measure the insurgents and the sectarian killers are in control in the country, and that the fate of the American mission is in their hands. "The frustration is that the definition of success has now gotten to be, how many innocent people are dying?" the president said. "And if there's a lot dying, it means the enemy is winning." He paused. "That doesn't mean they're winning."

Barone has a transcript of the session and adds:

Bush started off with a lengthy monologue, trying to put a historical perspective on where we are now. He clearly sees his primary mission as protecting the American people from the terrorists who want to do everything they can to hurt and destroy us and our civilization. He makes the point that we ought to listen to their words when they threaten to kill us-even though our first instinct is to flinch and turn away from threats that, if taken seriously, are extremely disturbing. Later he returned to this theme. The September 11 attacks made it clear, he said, that we're at war, and we're still at war. These terrorists want to kill us and destroy our civilization, and they will use any excuse that comes to mind-Israel, the Crusades, and if not the Crusades then the cartoons.

LANDSCAPE: Depressed In The West?

National Review Online's Ramesh Ponnuru forwards worries from "one well-known Republican strategist" about early losses in IN, KY, CT, NY, and PA affecting west coast districts: "We could be down a dozen [House seats] by 9:30 Eastern. If the networks report that the House has flipped, what does that do to Wilson and Pombo and Doolittle and Reichert?"

Also at National Review Online, Jim Geraghty shares emails assessing early GOTV efforts across the country including good GOP efforts in CO, but spotty ones in VA.

Both RCP Blog's John McIntyre and Outside the Beltway comment on Karl Rove's appearance on NPR with Robert Siegel. McIntyre reports: "Rove crystallizes the disconnect going with the analysis in this election. The press and pundits appear to be overly obsessed with the generic national polls that show big Democratic leads but when you start to break down the individual races that Democrats have to win to get control of each chamber it is far from a sure thing that the Democrats will capture either house. The Senate has improved noticeably for Republicans these last few days, the current RCP Senate Averages now project only a 4 seat pick up for the Democrats, two short of what they need for control."

MD SEN: Can You Name The Green Candidate?

DailyKos' founder Markos Moulitsas notes both NRSC and DSCC polls have LG Michael Steele (R) around 40% while the DSCC poll pushes more leaners into Rep. Ben Cardin's (D-03) column moving him from 41% to 52%. Markos also notes: "There's one other difference in poll methodologies -- it looks like the NRSC polled the Green candidate by name while the DSCC didn't (I'm double checking on that). If so, that could also account for some of the discrepancy in numbers."

On the right, Power Line's Paul Mirengoff urges readers to "Annoy the Washington Post, contribute to the Steele campaign" and posts video of Steele's new ad.

TN SEN: Well, If Chris Matthews Is Pissed ...

Lefty bloggers are up in arms over the "full-out racist tactics" of GOPers in TN. MyDD's Chris Bowers notes: "Even Chris Matthews is pissed." Upset over a NRSC ad using a "ditzy blonde" to remind voters of Rep. Harold Ford Jr.'s (D-09) attendance at a Super Bowl Playboy party, Talking Points MemoJosh Marshall suggest we should all "be honest with ourselves. Racism is one of the key building blocks of Republican politics in the United States." Marshall concludes by celebrating the GOP's decision to run the ad: "The point is that as vile as this race-hucksterism is, for my part I welcome the opportunity that Republican desperation provides, to show these guys for who they really are. Scratch the surface of 'outreach' Mehlman and he's a Southern strategy man after all. So, fine, bring it on. Cut away the veil and the mask. Let everyone come out from under their rock and be who they really are.

TPM Cafe's Greg Sargent also reports that stations in Nashville and Chattanooga are refusing to air the RNC's replacement ad "without further verification from the RNC of the claims in the ad" which include attacks on Ford's positions on gay marriage, abortion, and for taking money from porn producers.

Sargent also reports that ex-Chattanooga mayor Bob Corker's (R) new radio ad "has what sounds like tom-tom drums playing in the background every time the ad talks about Dem Harold Ford" Sargent then quotes WGOW program director Bill Lockhart: "They're freaking jungle-drums ...I t's racist -- it tries to conjure up deep, dark African moods. Yeah, it's overtly racial." Audio here.

Townhall's Mary Katharine Ham argues Corker should never have called for the ads removal and is "glad it's gotten blanket coverage because of Ford's inane accusations." RCP Blog's Tom Bevan also defends the ad arguing "the "ditsy blonde bimbo" is a more accurate caricature of what we all picture when we think "Playboy bunny." National Review Online's Rich Lowry labels the ad a "Bull's Eye."

Not everyone on the left is happy with Ford though. DailyKos' founder Markos Moulitsas looks at Ford's non-support of NJ's decision on gay marriage and writes: "How f---ing awful! It's a disgrace! Equal rights? Pshaw! How dare the NJ Supreme Court refuse to allow discrimination? Yeah, I want Ford to win. But I won't cry when he doesn't."

KERRY: You Win Some, You Lose Some

Firedoglake's Jane Hamsher calls Sen. John Kerry (D-MA) a "Stand Up Guy" for campaigning with cable exec Ned Lamont (D) in East Hartford, CT. hamsher writes: "Kerry deserves some big netroots praise for his willingness to buck the Incumbency Protection Racket and listen to what Democratic voters are saying."

Meanwhile back in DC, AMERICAblog's John Aravosis takes offense at calls from Kerry's PAC for cash since "Kerry knows people are in a giving spirit, so he's taking advantage of their generosity and their naivete. What a surprise - John Kerry, the man for whom political stunts matter more than results (think: Davos filibuster)."

ROMNEY: People-Powered Politics

Righty bloggers are loving MA Gov. Mitt Romney latest press conference exchange with a Boston Globe reporter.