Blogometer Update

HOUSE LANDSCAPE: What The FEC?

  Reader DK at Talking Points Memo says it's "always interesting poking through the [Federal Election Commission]'s independent expenditure reports filed late on Fridays."

That's because the Republicans have spent $7 million in "places you don't expect to see the GOP having to marshal its resources," writes DK.

  He cites Western races in Colorado's 5th, Nevada's 2nd ("say a little prayer for Chrissy Mazzeo the cocktail waitress who has accused Jim Gibbons ... of propositioning/accosting her") and 3rd, Nebraska's 3rd, and Wyoming's At Large seat as being prime cash dump zones for the Republicans.  In Nevada's 3rd District alone, the NRCC "has just put almost $400,000" into the race to ward off Dem challenger Tessa Hafen.

CT 04: Shaysus H. Chris!

  The Democratic Party must've finally gotten wind that all is not Right in GOP incumbent Rep. Christopher Shays' troubled re-election run.

  Greg Sargent at TPMCafe writes:

For days now there's been some buzz to the effect that national Dems are preparing to pump a huge amount of cash into the deadlocked contest between GOP Rep. Chris Shays and Dem challenger Diane Farrell.  Well, the money's finally arrived: Yesterday the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee dropped $1,025,989.50 into the race for an ad buy targeting Shays going into this thrilling contest's final days.

FL 16: Not Foleying Anybody

  Tom Bevan at Real Clear Politics fills us in on a "bit of good news" for Republicans in the 16th.  Joe Negron, the GOP's fill-in for resigned Rep. Mark Foley, gets a break in his last-minute emergency campaign.

  Bevan quotes a blog's report that a District Court has ruled that "signs can go up sayign a vote for Foley is a vote for Negron, if they also say a vote for [Dem challenger Tim Mahoney] is a vote for Mahoney."  Democrats "will not appeal the ruling."

  "Florida-16 is currently ranked #3 on RCP's list of the 50 Most Competitive House seats in 2006," writes Bevan.  "This is unquestionably a boost for the GOP, though it's hard to quantify just how much it may improve their chances of holding the seat."

ID 01: Who's Buried In Grant's Tomb?

  According to a recent poll, GOPer Bill Sali has a slight lead over Dem Larry Grant for the open 1st.  That's music to the ears of Jonathan Singer at MyDD, or it would be if Singer wasn't such a pessimist this go-round, or less significantly more optimistic, or something:

  I'm ... not going to get my hopes up too high in the assumption that this polling indicates that the Democrats are within a couple points of winning rather than within a couple points of catching their Republican adversaries with a significant portion of the electorate still undecided.  In 2004, for example, I truly believed that Democrat Brad Carson had a great chance in the Oklahoma Senate race, with polling showing him either up by a couple points or down by a couple points but in the low 40s, only to see Republican Tom Coburn virtually walk to a 53 percent to 41 percent victory.

  Nonetheless, the political climate in the country -- and even in Idaho -- is decidedly different than it was in 2004, and the late-breaking trends are not moving towards the GOP like they were just two years ago.  That could change, particularly as a result of the politically-motivated decision to announce the verdict in the Saddam Hussein trial a week from today.

  But even keeping that in account, I'm significantly less pessimistic about Democrats' chances in states like Idaho than I was just weeks ago.  And if this movement keeps up, folks inside the beltway will be shocked to see races break towards the Democrats that they never even thought possible.

IL 14: Hastert-Been

  "Do you think Denny Hastert really wants to keep his job as House speaker?"  What prompts the remark is that Hastert has posted "his first blog -- ever" over at Redstate, as Ivy J. Sellers reports at Human Events' The Right Angle.  Among some of Hastert's literary gems:

  In short, Democrats do not believe in the Global War on Terror.  I don't mean that they don't support it, though they don't.  What I mean is Democrats don't believe the war actually exists.

  While Republicans believe the biggest threat to American freedom and security is the evil ideology that planned and executed the murder of 3,000 of our countrymen five years ago, and continues planning today, Democrats think the biggest threat to America is... Republicans.

  Rightys not only don't seem to be that impressed, some are downright disappointed; nay, disillusioned.  To wit, Jon Fleischman of FlashReport, commenting at Hastert's blog:

  With all due respect to the Speaker, under his watch, Republicans have presided over vast increases in spending, enlarging the size and scope of the federal government to record levels.

  It's a real problem.  Just using myself as an example. I am a former Executive Director of the California Republican Party, have worked on GOP campaigns and causes for two decades, and when I see a post from the Speaker, I get irate.

  The War on Terror is very important.  But to me, the House GOP Leadership right now stands for growth in government.  It's hard for me to just 'put that aside' -- so maybe someone can give me advice on how to do that.

  Winning the War on Terror abroad and winning the war for liberty at home are both important.  Find me a spokesperson who is good on BOTH, please.

IA 03: Dave's Not Here, Man

  "This is funny," writes Tom Bevan at Real Clear Politics.  "President Bush went all the way to Iowa today to help Republican Jeff Lamberti in his race to upset Leonard Boswell in IA-3."  The President said, according to the White House transcript:

  This campaign only ends after the voters have had a chance to speak.  No doubt in my mind, with your help, Dave Lamberti will be the next United States congressman.

  "Oops," says Bevan.  Bush actually said it twice before correcting himself.  "[W]ith the amount of campaigning the President does, I'm surprised we don't see this sort of thing happen more often."

  Bevan now ponders the potential bungle factor of Bush's next stop, where he'll be in Texas trying to pronounce the name of the 22nd District's GOP candidate, Shelley Sekula-Gibbs.

NE 03: Yo, Adrian!

  John Aravosis at AMERICAblog says "Republicans are growing increasingly worried about our boy, Scott Kleeb" in Nebraska's 3rd District, which has been owned by the GOP for 48 years.  Seems Mr. Kleeb, with the help and attention of AMERICAblog's army of contributors, is presenting a bit of a threat to Republican nominee Adrian Smith in this formerly safe GOP district, being vacated by the retiring Tom Osborne.

  Aravosis would like more help for Kleeb.  As he says, "I've met him, he's good."  And that's that.

WY AL: Smoking A Cubin

  The "Slap" Heard 'Round the Rockies continues to resonate in the Mountain West, and Dems are taking advantage of it.  You may have heard that incumbent GOP Rep. Barbara Cubin threatened to smack Libertarian challenger Thomas Rankin for daring to highlight her ties to disgraced GOP lobbyist Jack Abramoff and outcast Republican Rep. Tom DeLay, a charge she didn't exactly deny. 

  georgia10 at Daily Kos reports that a new post-"slap" poll has shown Democrat Gary Trauner in a "statistical dead heat" with Cubin, amazing when you consider that "President Bush carried Wyoming in 2004 by an overwhelming margin (69%-29%).  It's gotten choppy enough for Wyoming Republicans that the Veep himself, Dick Cheney, will be making a stop this week to "help remedy the situation."

  Big Dick has his work cut out for him, as Cubin continues to flail about wildly, with her latest boner [reported by Markos Moulitsas at Daily Kos] being this: she blames her threat to Rankin on Viagra-enhanced Rush Limbaugh!  From the Billings Gazette:

She later apologized, saying she may have been influenced by listening to too much Rush Limbaugh.  Last week, Limbaugh said he would slap actor and Parkinson's disease sufferer Michael J. Fox, "if you'd just quit bobbing your head."

  As for Trauner, he benefits from Cubin's gaffes and should be heartened by cutting new ads like this one.

[Mike Sheehan]

10/31: It Ain't Easy For A Blogger

As anyone who has tried starting their own blog knows, it's harder than it looks. Sure, setting up an account with a blog hosting company is easy, it's just filling your blog with 2 or 3 posts a day that becomes very difficult very quickly. Blogs start and stop all the time, often without anybody noticing. But what about campaign-related blogs that suddenly go silent? What can we read it into that? Raising Kaine points out 10/31 that pro-Sen. George Allen (R) blog The A-Team hasn't had a new post since 10/27. The A-Team quickly added 3 new posts in a span of 5 minutes, but one has to wonder if their noticeable silence says anything about the energy level of Allen supporters.

LANDSCAPE: Apparently, Iraq is Going To Be An Issue In This Election

TPM Cafe's Reed Hundt observes this year's midterm elections have "morphed into a referendum on Iraq" and argues that Dems "did not intend either of these two questions until about two months ago, but Lamont's victory in the Nutmeg State primary and ensuing polling across the country caused virtually all Dems in serious races ... to run campaigns that linked the President's war and his general behavior to the local Republican." Still at TPM Cafe, Greg Sargent reports Stan Greenberg and Bob Shrum latest strategy memo "finds that thanks to the steady stream of bad news from Iraq, majorities in GOP-held districts are now for reducing the number of troops in the Iraq war. The firm surveyed 50 competitive House districts -- all of them held by Republicans -- and found that 54% in these districts only favor beginning troop reductions."

At The Huffington Post, Arianna Huffington pleads with Dems to stick to the Iraq message on the final week of the campaign. Huffington looks at DNC chair Howard Dean's explanation to CBS' Bob Schieffer that the election is about "middle-class tax fairness" and writes: "Nooooo! Dr. Dean, please, please tell me that you don't really believe this election is about "middle-class tax fairness." ... This election is about the fact that Republicans have made us less safe and that Congressional oversight is critical to ensure that Bush and company, with their tragically misguided decisions on Iraq and homeland security, don't make us even less secure over the two years they have left. Period. End of message." Fellow HuffPosterMiles Mogulescu urges Dems to "Play Smash Mouth Football on National Security" and recommends a message: "Are You Safer Now Than You Were 6 Years Ago?"

Back at TPM, Josh Marshall links to Washington Poststory on Pres. Bush statements that "terrorists will win if Democrats win and impose their policies on Iraq" and warns readers: "The desperation will be ferocious. Imagine everything from the last six years rolled into one toxic week. An electoral gauntlet of hacking knives and fire. But, then, where did one party rule ever end serenely?" Marshall also takes onCNN for adopting the "long-standing" GOP jab of calling "the Democratic party, the 'Democrat' party."

Righty blogs frame the issue a little differently. RedState promoted Speaker Denny Hastert's (R-IL) earlier post titled "The Choice Could Not Be Clearer" back to the top of the page. Hastert writes: "In short, Democrats do not believe in the Global War on Terror. I don't mean that they don't support it, though they don't. What I mean is Democrats don't believe the war actually exists. While Republicans believe the biggest threat to American freedom and security is the evil ideology that planned and executed the murder of 3,000 of our countrymen five years ago, and continues planning today, Democrats think the biggest threat to America is... Republicans."

LANDSCAPE II: The Indies Are With Us

DailyKos' founder Markos Moulitsas links to The Allen Report quoting GOP sources predicting defeat in OH, PA, and RI. Kos then ranks the most likely Dem pickups from best to worst: MT, VA, MO, and TN. Kos writes: "All four are certainly possible. And I wouldn't count out a shocker in Arizona. While not probable, it's certainly within the realm of possibilities. ... But if the election was tomorrow I'd predict a 50/50 Senate." Atrios offers his own predictions: "Dems +18 in the House, with the possibility of an orgy of party switching on both sides making the final outcome in the House uncertain. Senate: Dems +4."

Over at MyDD, Jerome Armstrong is more bullish writing that "Karl Rove is on crack." Armstrong looks at Gallup polling and continues: "The independents are aligned with Democrats. It was that way last week, and it's been that way all the time, since last summer. The best estimates put the number of seats gained by Democrats at around 20 from this conservative, and 10-24 from the Republicans at RCP, at 8-26 by CQ's current projection, and anywhere from 16 to 40 from Pollster.com, and from 24-29 by Chris Bowers here."

Back at Daily Kos Markos tracks new DCCC investments in NY-25, KS-02, KY-02, NH-02, NV-03, CA-11, and PA-04.

LANDSCAPE III: Polls Schmolls

National Review Online's Rich Lowry identifies 10 seats the GOP will lose as well as a second tier of 16 that the GOP can only lose 12 of and keep the House. Lowry concludes: "In general, Republicans tend to think, as of this moment, the seats that they are going to lose are scandals seats; races where the Republican candidates are running lazy, mistake-prone campaigns; and seats that are just always tough for Republicans. They don't kid themselves about the national environment, but don't think it will be enough to defeat good candidates running good campaigns, limiting the damage and preventing a total wipe-out this year. If they lose, it will only be by a few seats."

Later Lowry follows up with 4 GOP pick up opportunities including: IL-8, GA-8, GA-12, and VT-AL.

Many on the right are also linking to Michael Barone's latest article casting doubt polls showing Dems dramatically ahead. Power Line's John Hinderaker summarizes: "The key point is that in 2004, people who actually voted split exactly equally between Republicans and Democrats. On the other hand, current polling is showing party identification favoring the Democrats by 5 to 12 points. As Barone notes, party identification has historically changed only slowly. It is highly unlikely that the turnout on November 7 will favor the Dems by anything like 5 to 12 points. Which throws into question most if not all of the poll results we've all been seeing."

Finally, TCS' Ed Driscollinterviews National Review Online's Jonah Goldberg on "the upcoming mid-term elections and what their results could mean to America."

BLOGGERS VS. MSM: Take This Job And Shove It

Lucas O'Connor, now in charge of Google Bomb updates at MyDD, defends the project by discussing two fundamental beliefs: "First, that the media is currently underserving the general public through a combination of apathy, incompetence, and overt right-wing leanings. Second, that voters (and by extension the country) would be better served by a complete understanding of the choice before them." O'Connor continues: "The project presumes that an impartial but impassioned presentation of the facts is difficult, if not impossible, to come by if this current atmosphere is left to its own devices ... To this end, thousands of people across the country have joined together in order to raise several specific issues of importance to the upcoming election. These issues have all been reported by mainstream, impartial news sources, and if enough people are concerned about these issues to mount an effective Google Bomb, then, quite frankly, they are issues worth discussion in the national discourse."

O'Connor concludes: "Fighting back is not inherently the same as fighting dirty. This is the system in which we've been forced to operate for the time being. It's been constructed to restrict the free flow of information and issues, and we aren't cheating because we find a way to work within the constraints.So please CNN. Please New York Times. Please San Diego Union-Tribune. Please whomever. I don't want this job. Take it back."

On the right, Right Wing News updates his own Google Bomb efforts: "After 3 days, the first Googlebomb only had 10 of 45 links in the top 20. Now, after 7 days, it's up 35 links in the top 30."

BLOGGERS VS. BELTWAY: The 72-Hour Myth

GMU prof. Michael McDonald's 10/29 article on the 5 myths about turnout is drawing blogger attention. Pollster.com highlights McDonald's doubts about the GOP's "72 hour program" where he writes: "Studies of a campaign's personal contact with voters through phone calls, door-to-door solicitation and the like find that it does have some positive effect on turnout. ... We don't know what the effects of mobilization drives are in highly competitive races in which people are bombarded by media stories, television ads and direct mail." Pollster comments: "Also, in 2002 and 2004, the 72-Hour-Campaign also benefited from a political environment and national mood largely favorable to Republicans. Not so this time. We will soon see whether they can work the same magic in a climate like 2006."

MyDD's Chris Bowers finds the negative ad myth the most interesting. Bowers writes: "I bet it was going nuclear on John Kerry via Swift Boating and other tactics that allowed Republican turnout in 2004 to surpass Democratic turnout. Given this, in isolation, I'd bet that the Republican 72-hour program and the Amway-stuff probably wasn't superior to our GOTV operations by much, if at all. What was clearly superior was their messaging to drive up base turnout, with going nuclear on gay marriage and equally nuclear on John Kerry serving as essential factors. This could also explain why Democrats appear more mobilized in 2006 than Republicans. We can go nuclear on Bush to the base, but they can't pull off going nuclear on "generic Democrat," which is essentially who we are to about 50% of the electorate right now."

BLOGGERS VS. BELTWAY II: There's No Such Ting As A FreeEats

Pollster.com follows up on Talking Points Memo reports of push polling in MD, TN, and OH by identifying the firm responsible for the calls. After comparing reader reports of calls and an at least one audio recording to a sample "political survey" available on the web, Pollster.com fingers ccAdvertising, a.k.a. FreeEats.com, a.k.a. ElectionResearch.com as the firm responsible for the ad/

DailyKos diarist WeDemocrats in IL-19 reports receiving a push poll from the Terrance Group, and TPM Muckraker's Justin Rood reports that Paul Kiel spoke with Zeke Smith, "the man responsible for those calls and similar ones against at least four other Senate Democratic candidates."

BLOGGERS VS. BELTWAY III: Workin' Hard For The Money

Beltway Blogroll has a thorough look at the increased hiring of bloggers by campaigns. Daniel Glover catalogues the diverse tasks campaigns assign to bloggers including: "to write blogs, develop Web sites, connect with energetic allies on the Internet, respond to online critics, and advise their employers about how to behave in the blogosphere. Others are paid to do more traditional campaign work like communications consulting and opposition research."

Not all bloggers are created equal though: "pay scales range from a few hundred dollars a month to a few thousand, with some of the bloggers earning top dollar for their expertise."

MD SEN: Currying Favor

Manyrightybloggers linked to stories on LG Michael Steele (R) receiving endorsement from ex-Prince Georges County Executive Wayne Curry. RedState's Erick Erickson writes: "

TN SEN: 'Cause Nothing's Funnier Than Pedophilia

DailyKos' founder Markos Moulitsas posts a "Hilarious spoof off that racist RNC ad against Ford ... My favorite line, other than all the Foley jokes? ... If the Constitution can't protect us against terrorists, why protect it?"

On the right, Right Wing News is upset with lefty bloggers who linked to Wonkette's pic of ex-Chattanooga mayor Bob Corker's (R) "daughter kissing another girl at a party." RWN comments: "Does this fit into the McCarthesque outing campaign the left has engaged in during this campaign season? Yes. Does it also fall into the "politics of personal destruction" that the left now regularly uses against its enemies? Sure. Is it an attempt to go after Bob Corker's daughter to get at him? Certainly."

VA SEN: Maybe Colonel Decker Has Them

RCP Blog's John McIntyre latest post on the ex-Navy Sec. James Webb (D)/Sen. George Allen (R) race is headed "George Allen in Trouble." McIntyre notes the "only big news event in this race was the Allen campaign's dump of sexually provocative passages from Jim Webb's many novels. ... Did Allen see his numbers deteriorating and decide he needed to dump the Webb stuff? Or is this is just one poll taken on the weekend that will turn out to be an outlier? We'll find out soon enough."

RedState's Erick Erickson warns readers not to pay attention to recent internal Webb polls showing Allen behind: "When I see campaigns willingly releasing their campaign internals, I get very suspicious. I trust DSCC and NRSC polls about the same and campaign polls with them. Internal means internal. ... So, when I see ... Jim Webb (Perv-VA) releasing [his] internal polls, I think they must be losing and are trying to reassure their base while at the same time attempting to generate favorable media headlines to stop any hemorrhaging.

Meanwhile under the header "Jim Webb limited the roles available to women in the Navy" AllenHQ links to stories on Webb's tenure as Navy Sec. and writes: "Why does Jim Webb constantly claim he opened up more billets for women on his own initiative? In fact, the initiative was that of the Department of Defense, and Jim Webb actually limited their attempt to open more billets for women."

On the left, Webb's Netroots Coordinator and Raising Kaine founder Lowell Feld observes: "The "A-Team blog's last post was on October 27. That's FOUR days ago; rather odd for the last week of tight election campaign. What's going on over there?"

At TPM Cafe, Greg Sargent notes the DSCC is now demanding the release of Allen's VA bar application and demands more coverage of Allen's past from the Washington Post. Kos also highlights "the Democratic counterattack demanding that George Allen release his arrest records. Yeah, he's got sealed arrest records."

OBAMA: We Thought Clinton Was The First Black President

The Huffington Post's Byron Williams recounts an elderly woman "with tears in her eyes" from the 2004 Dem convo. who told him: "I didnt think I would live to see it, but I may be looking at the first African-American president" after seeing Sen. Barack Obama (D-IL) speak. Williams comments on the lack of excitement surrounding the other Dem hope fulls and concludes: "Maybe the time is right for Obama to run. It could very well be that his lack of years in the Senate is actually a strength. He was not there when many of his current colleagues, forced to decide between the courage of their convictions and the perception of appearing patriotic, chose a Faustian bargain which they are still clumsily attempting to explain."

GIULIANI: Also Ran Or Never Ran?

Daniel McKivergan at The Worldwide Standard describes what ex-NY mayor Rudy Giuliani (R) campaign might look like: "Because he's not a fan of the liberal media establishment, I suspect Giuliani would pick some fights with them to score points with conservative Republicans turned off by his social views. As mayor, Giuliani frequently battled The New York Times and its editors over his policies. Getting in a fight with the Times and other liberal icons won't lose him votes in the GOP, and it would put pressure on McCain to do much the same or risk hemorrhaging too many conservative votes to Giuliani."

Interviewed by Roger L. Simon for Pajamas Media, however, some guy named Chuck Todd argues that "Rudi" probably will not make a WH run.

THOUGHT OF THE DAY: The Turd Blossum Has No Clothes

In an effort to "get people to finally drop out of the Rove (anti-)cult" Talking Points Memo's Josh Marshall revisits an argument he made in his second ever TPM post

Going into the big day the polls all showed a very, very close race, with perhaps ever so slight an edge for Bush. Conventional logic would have dictated sending Bush to swing states like Florida. But that's not what Rove did. He chose instead to send Bush to California and New Jersey -- states Bush could only have any hope of winning in a blow-out. The reasoning was simple. Rove figured that he could accomplish more through convincing mainly the press, but also activists and even highly-plugged voters, that Bush was going to win big than he would by sending his guy into a state like Florida for some last minute retail politicking.

As it happened, it was a really dumb decision in 2000. If not for faulty ballots and election stealing, Bush would have lost Florida and the presidency. And given the margin, it's at least conceivable that Bush could have won fair and square had he spent the last few days on the ground in Florida.

LEST WE FORGET: The Blogometer Is All For Ney/Traficant '08

Talking Points Memo's Josh Marshall provides reader with some comic relief: "Rep. Duncan Hunter (R-CA) is forming an exploratory committee to run for president." The always helpful Marshall even contributes a possible campaign slogan: "I managed to avoid getting indicted in the Cunningham probe. I can keep the country out of trouble too." JM concludes: "I hear Bob Ney may be making a few swings through New Hampshire too."

10/30: This Campaign Is Just Beginning

If CW holds, and Dems take back the House while cable exec Ned Lamont (D) loses to Sen. Joe Lieberman (I), don't expect the energy levels on the lefty blogs to dissipate. Articles in the San Francisco Chronicle and New York Times quoting Rep. Ellen Tauscher (D-CA) on the need for Dems not to run "over the left cliff" once they attain power, have MyDD's Chris Bowers and Matt Stoller promising '08 primary challenges and "Intraparty War." Netroots activists are also unhappy with Dem establishment support for Lamont, and lists are being prepared on who's been naughty and who's been nice. So don't try and take a vacation from politics after 11/7. Because bloggers sure won't.

LANDSCAPE: Cook Vs. Rove

RCP Blog's John McIntyre breaks down "two very different ways to look at this election" including the "Charlie Cook" view that Dems will pick up 20-35 House seats and the "Karl Rove" view the the GOP loses less than 15 House seats and holds both chambers. In the House RCP projects an 18-seat Dem pick up. Right Wing News is even more encouraged by the fence-bill signing and NJ gay-marriage decision, and now believes, like Rove, the GOP will maintain the House.

Across the righty 'sphere, bloggers are confident the GOP will maintain control of the Senate. Townhall's Hugh Hewitt and Power Line's Scott Johnson both link to Tradesports data showing the GOP likely to hold on in VA, TN, and MO.

Also at Townhall, Hewitt defends the "Bush-Rove political legacy" and at National Review Online, Jonah Goldberg preemptively points the finger at NRSC chair Sen. Liddy Dole (R-NC).

LANDSCAPE II: Everyone's A Winner

Lefty blogs are beginning to focus more and more on GOTV questions in the final week. DailyKos' founder Markos Moulitsas links to New York Timesreports on strong Dem efforts and asks: "So, have we caught up to the GOP turnout machine? Parity may or may not be in the cards (the GOP's list is on its third cycle, while the Dems is brand new this year), but we are better off than we've been in a while. ... And whatever else one might say about the party committees and who should or shouldn't get "credit" if we win, fact is all three of them have invested heavily on the ground."

Also at Daily Kos, Georgia10 looks at a US Newsarticle on the decentralized nature of the Dem turnout machine and links to programs readers can participate in, including: Do More Than Vote, MoveOn's Call for Change, and MoveOn's Pre-Halloween Phone Parties

Still at Daily Kos, DemFromCT looks at '04 polling data from OH, MO, and NJ and concludes: "The point is that the polls were relatively accurate predictors of the state of play for a 50 state presidential election." Turning to the GOTV question, DFCT writes: "when we look at the GOP GOTV and compare results with polling, it doesn't appear that there were huge swings away from the expected results. The idea that the GOP GOTV is worth > 2% points [more than D GOTV] seems a bit suspect (CT Senate excepted, because it pits a D GOTV vs no clear competitor). Even in Ohio, where it's most famous, it brought in a slim win that didn't radically differ from the polling ratios."

At TPM Cafe, Greg Sargent tracks last-minute GOP cash dumps including $3M in NJ SEN and $7M "into dozens of House races." At MyDD, Chris Bowers still forecasts Dems to takeover the house, but is worried by over 50 races with Dem leads still in the single digits.

CT SEN: The Natives Are Restless

Under the header "Torches and Pitchforks" firedoglake's Jane Hamsher links to a APstory titled "Lieberman says potential for leadership role helps candidacy" and writes: "Offhand I can't think of any other event in recent history outside of the big three - Katrina, Alito and Torture - that would elicit much more online rage." MyDD's Matt Stoller also is not happy with beltway Dem performance on behalf of cable exec Ned Lamont (D):

Whether it was a standing ovation at a caucus meeting when Joe got back to the Senate after his primary loss, or Obama refusing to come to Connecticut or criticize Joe in any way, or Bill Clinton praising Lieberman on Larry King, or Harry Reid promising Lieberman seniority, or Chuck Schumer refusing to get involved and practically being forced to not back Lieberman after the primary, or insiders telling Lamont's campaign that they would talk Joe out of the race if Lamont didn't go on the attack, it's very clear that the Democratic Party leadership is rotten to the core.

Stoller goes on to praise the efforts of Sen. John Kerry (D-MA), Sen. Chris Dodd (D), Sen. Ted Kennedy (D-MA), and retired Gen. Wesley Clark (D) who "have been there for Lamont." Stoller concludes: "Make no mistake, these DC Democrats are only our temporary allies. They have total contempt for the rules of the party, and they cheered Joe after he faced us in the primary. ... The American people know this. They know that Democratic Senators are moral lepers, weaklings, and that is the only reason we aren't further ahead when the Republicans screw everything up."

Back at firedoglakePachacutec singles out Sen. Barack Obama (D-IL), John Edwards, and "the Clintons" for their "calculated" support for Lamont. Sen. Russ Feingold (D-WI) initially made the list, but official Lamont blogger Tim Tagaris wrote in to explain it was the campaign's fault Feingold was not extended an official invitation earlier.

On the right, RCP Blog's Tom Bevan observes: "Lamont will kick in another $2 million to his campaign. That brings his total investment in both the primary and the general election to a whopping $12.75 million. Ouch."

MD SEN: Dial P For Push Poll

Talking Points Memo reader RC reports receiving a "push poll for Michael Steele" including the question: "Do you favor carrying out medical experiments on unborn babies?" Other TPM readers report receiving similar calls and there is some doubt as to who is making the calls: "Some reports we've gotten say the call was the Steele campaign; others say it was a group called "Common Sense Maryland." Still others say the sponsor was "Common Sense Ohio." Josh Marshall goes on to quote readers from other states claiming to have received similar relevant calls.

Still on the left Oliver Willis has video of Steele's Meet the Press debate with Rep. Ben Cardin (D-03) and reports: "Maybe the markets saw that Steele lost this debate. His contract on Tradesports lost value during the debate, with it now showing him dropping from 28% likelihood to win down to 24%."

On the right, RCP Blog's Tom Bevan posts video of Steele's response to Cardin's Michael J. Fox ad. The response features Steele's sister Dr. Monica Turner.

MO SEN: Out Foxed?

The Plank's Eve Fairbanks looks at Pollster.com data showing Sen. James Talent (R) moving ahead of Aud. Claire McCaskill and wonders: "distasteful as the thought is -- if the Michael J. Fox kerfuffle didn't have a little blowback there."

TN SEN: On Prostitutes And Playmates

Townhall's Mary Katharine Ham has video of her appearance with AMERICAblog's John Aravosis discussing the RNC's "bimbo" ad. Later she notes Rep. Harold Ford (D-09) denied the ad had anything to do with race and writes: "I also don't have a big problem with the sexual nature of the RNC ad. Carol Lin called the "bimbo" in the ad a "prostitute" yesterday. For real? If strapless shirts now mean "prostitute," I'm gonna have to rethink some of my wardrobe choices. She's a Playmate. She's a party girl. She's not a prostitute, for goodness sake. All in all, it's pretty tame."

TPM Cafe's Greg Sargent reports that Wal-Mart thought the ad was more than tame. Responding to pressure from Rev. Jesse Jackson, Wal-Mart ended its relationship with "bimbo" ad consultant Terry Nelson for his role in the production of the ad. Also blogging on the ad, Josh Marshall reports at Talking Points Memo that the RNC recieved money from Nicholas T. Boyias who is "one of the largest producers and distributors of gay porn in the United States." AMERICAblog's John Aravosis follows up reminding readers of pornstar Mary Carey's continued financial support of the GOP.

Also making it s way around righty blogs, video of Ford saying: " My friend Lincoln Davis who chairs our campaign says there are, there's one big difference between us and misfortunate Republicans when it comes to our faith: he said that Republicans fear the Lord; he said Democrats fear AND love the Lord."

VA SEN: Is That What Smells In VA?

Daily Kos diarist GregP has video ex-Navy Sec. James Webb (D) responding to Sen. George Allen (R) attacks on his fiction writing including: "And by attacking my career and my ethics in this way, if anyone has any doubts from other indicators, he has now shown his true character ... if you want to find accountability for this, remember that the fish rots from the head down." Webb Netroots Coordinator Lowell FeldRaising Kaine also has video from the same 10/28 Annandale, VA rally and audio of Webb's Democratic Radio Address.

Webb wasn't the only one unimpressed with Allen's fiction related attack. National Review Online's Kathryn Jean Lopez calls the move "lame and unbecoming of the senator" but still bemoans MSM bias in the race. And Hot Air has video of Michelle Malkin on Fox slamming "Smutgate" calling it "desperate, pathetic, ... immature" and predicting Dems will take the House.

Back on the left, Feld calls on Sens. John McCain (R-AZ) and John Warner (R) to withdraw their endorsement of Allen and DailyKos' founder Markos Moulitsas notes that the Webb book in question is on the United States Marine Corps reading list for professional development.

TPM Cafe's Greg Sargent wants to fight fire with fire, demanding the Washington Post and New York Times seek to unseal Allen's divorce records : "So Allen has opened the door for news orgs to press hard for his divorce record -- which could tell us something of Allen's attitudes towards women, specifically his ex-wife."

Not everyone on the right is embarrassed by the Allen campaign. Erick Erickson at RedState asks Virginia: "Sure, John Mark Karr's/Jim Webb's supporters can hide behind the "it's just fiction" defense. But you really want to do that? Do you really want to defend a guy with that sort of imagination?" And AllenHQ reminds readers of Keith Olbermann's condemnation of Scooter Libby for his fiction writing.

BLOGGERS VS. BELTWAY: It's Our Party, And We'll Do What We Want To

Rep. Ellen Tauscher (D-CA) attained "Wanker of the Day" status for her comments in San Francisco Chronicle and New York Times articles on upcoming Dem "tug-of-war in own tent." MyDD's Chris Bowers singles out this offensive line: "I think there's tremendous agreement and awareness that getting the majority and running over the left cliff is what our Republican opponents would dearly love," Ms. Tauscher said. Bowers responds: "I am so unbelievably angry right now, and it takes a lot for me to fly off the handle like this. If we lose this election, it will be the fault of the Ellen Taushcers of the Democratic Party. Why should people keep giving, keep volunteering, keep infusing the party with new blood, keep building new media, keep supporting primary winners they don't like, if we are told point blank that we are not wanted?" Bowers goes on to assure Tauscher she will face "a surprisingly strong and well funded primary challenger with tons of volunteers and lots of support in the progressive media" in '08. MyDD's Matt Stoller has a similar post under the header: "On Eve of Election, New Democrats Declare Intraparty War"

Later Bowers returned to strike a more conciliatory tone: "We need a broad coalition in order to govern, and neither conservatives nor progressive will ever be thoroughly purged from a Democratic governing coalition. ... To keep the coalition together, we need to do three things. First, we all must have an ownership stake. Second, we must all agree to act within mutually agreed upon rules to resolve intra-coalition conflicts. Third, we have to all be working for each other, despite our differences."

Talk Left's Big Tent Democrat looks at the same stories and argues the MSM is trying to create differences among Dems the don't exist

ROMNEY: Stalled Out?

The MI Cooler notes that the day the Boston Globe came out with its MA Gov. Mitt Romney (R) "mormon/IRS problem" story, "Romney's Tradesports value dropped by 18% and continued to stay at a lower value as articles ran." MIC continues: "The level seems to be stabilizing but that brings into question whether an enterprising Romney supporter is buying up shares to stop the free fall. Regardless, this story clearly has hurt Romney's candidacy and stopped any momentum he had built over the summer."

THOUGHT OF THE DAY: The Ink Spot Strategy In America

MyDD's Chris Bowers looks at the aftermath from both progressive and conservative efforts "to replace so-called "moderates" with more ideologically palatable candidates" and concludes: "Republicans are trying to squeeze a more conservative country out of their base districts, and then still facing serious challenges in the general election in those base districts. By contrast, all Democratic primary challenges are followed by total Republican abandonment of the districts targeted for primaries. Bowers goes on to argue:

In other words, the 25% of the country that Republicans have abandoned tend to be closely grouped with the areas of the country where Democrats can make substantial gains this year. Basically, this means that when Republicans finally lose in many of these areas, they won't be coming back. For example, Republicans abandoned Philadelphia a long time ago, but now every seat they lose in Philadelphia suburbs this year won't be changing hands again for a long, long time. The blue, urban dots they left behind are spreading and becoming larger, as they slowly transform into full-blown blue regions.

LEST WE FORGET: Toke Me Up, Elmo

The Smoking Gun has DEA evidence photos of a hollowed out Tickle Me Elmo doll used to hide four pounds of methamphetamine as part of a 21-member CO drug operation. TSG comments: "While Elmo has never previously been linked to narcotics distribution or use, the Sesame Street character appears to have no teeth, which frequently is seen in heavy meth users."

Blogometer Update: House Edition

CA 45: Roth 'N' Roll

  The good folks working hard for unheralded Dem challenger David Roth are clearly enjoying their campaign to oust GOP Rep. Mary Bono, as TRex at Firedoglake reports.  It may be an uphill battle against this "name" incumbent and celebrity widow, but you'd never know from the zany pictures and tales from the Roth campaign--which, by the way, is travelling by RV instead of plane or bus.

  TRex introduces us to several of Roth's staff, a fun bunch including his campaign's field organizer, who when asked "what he does for the campaign, he says, 'I'm bringing "sexy" back!'"  You'll also get to meet the laughing Texan, the resident gypsy, the debate duck, and Roth himself, who plays drums in a band (and no, he's not related to David Lee Roth of Van Halen fame).

  Back to the politics, though... TRex shares an ad which has "Mrs. Bono's view of the situation in Iraq" (see it here) and is "Full-flavored, but 100% fact free!  All the inanity and none of the content!"

CO 04/05: Fawcett All And Fawcett No Regrets

  There is no better place to witness the topsy-turviness of Election '06 than in the Centennial State, where Democrats are making improbable inroads in formerly solid red zones lorded over by some of the most extreme on the right.  Take the 4th District, where GOP incumbent Rep. Marilyn Musgrave insists that gay marriage is the most important issue Americans face today (Iraq Shmiraq, hm?).  Dem challenger Angie Paccione "has been getting slammed by the Musgrave campaign and NRCC," writes Markos Moulitsas at Daily Kos, "including this ad with a disabled vet, even though Musgrave has had a terrible rating from the Disabled American Vets."  Lo and behold, a Paccione internal poll shows her in a dead heat with Musgrave, and her pollster says the difference could be even larger, "since the sample of 600 likely voters included a larger percentage of Republicans that are registered in the district," according to The Coloradoan.  If that's accurate, writes Kos, Paccione "may have weathered one of the fiercest full frontal assaults of any Democrat this cycle."

  Meanwhile, in the 5th District, home to James Dobson's Focus on the Family and myriad military establishments including the US Air Force Academy and NORAD, Democratic candidate Jay Fawcett (an Academy grad himself) is charging forward with an impressive campaign against GOP hopeful—some might say hopeless—Doug Lamborn.  Fawcett was no doubt helped by retiring GOP Rep. Joel Hefley's refusal to endorse Lamborn, calling his primary run "sleazy" and "dishonest."  Kos writes:

  [T]he NRCC is having to dump more money to try and solidify a seat that should by all means be theirs.  I was told that Cheney is actually coming to the district next week to try and bolster the Republican in the race, Doug Lamborn.  Dick Freakin' Cheney is being forced to go to James Dobson territory, a district in which Bush won with 66 percent of the vote, in order to try to save their sleazy slimebag of a candidate against the impressive Jay Fawcett.

  The DCCC has given the Fawcett campaign money to buy into the state's coordinated campaign (which will handle field), and there is a second GOTV effort being put together by -- get this -- the Republicans for Fawcett operation.  This has always been a longshot race, but it may the only race in the country where Republicans are actively working to elect the Democratic candidate.

CT 04/05: Connectiklutzes

  Just when one might think the Chris Shays goob-athon is ebbing, along comes a new allegation in The New Republic about the incumbent GOP congressman.  Ben Adler at The American Prospect's TAPPED has the goods:

  Garance has a piece in The New Republic that should deliver a death blow to Shays.  Apparently Shays has taken to bragging about his first venture into Iraq, leaving out the part about how, stopping en route in Qatar, a small middle-Eastern monarchy, he told an audience: "This nation, like my small state, has always played a large role in advancing participatory democracy, civil discourse, and stable commerce."  But the scandal wasn't his royal ass-kissing -- it was how Shays, with his famously holier-than-thou stance on ethics, got there in the first place.

  Adler then quotes Garance Franke-Ruta at TNR:

  ... despite his record of pushing for meticulous record-keeping, Shays's privately sponsored trip to Qatar was notably absent from his own annual federal financial disclosure form, filed in May 2004, in violation of House rules.  Nor did he submit an amendment disclosing the sponsor of his Qatar trip until confronted in mid-October 2006 by The New Republic with internal Islamic Institute receipts for his plane tickets, which were provided by an Arab American source upset with Shays's foreign policy positions.

  Commenter Patience remarks, emphasis as is:

  You're kind of burying the most fascinating finding, which is this: [T]he Islamic Institute sought and received $143,150.93 from the [Qatari] foreign ministry days before Shays boarded the plane to Doha... as reimbursement for, among other things, the congressman's travel.  Shays's aides sounded winded by this revelation.  The Constitution prohibits members of Congress from taking funds from foreign governments or their agents.

  Then we have incumbent GOP Rep. Nancy Johnson in the 5th.  She has a new ad against Dem challenger Chris Murphy, viewable here.  Matt Stoller at MyDD is not only not impressed, he's insulted by the effort.  He quips, "This ad has the advantage of being stupid, crass, and memorable all at once, the perfect vehicle for an entitled and bratty Nancy Johnson."

ID 01: Grant And Rave

  mcjoan at Daily Kos is nothing if not a believer.  And she definitely believes Dem candidate Larry Grant has a good chance of topping GOP challenger Bill Sali mostly on his own in what is historically a very conservative state.  "It's almost become conventional wisdom for this cycle that all of the GOP's woes can be summed up by looking at Idaho," she writes.  "The national press loves a Cinderella story, and Democrats in Idaho fit the bill."  She continues:

  To date, no independent expenditures have gone to the Grant campaign.  What the campaign has received, however, is a state party organization that stretches through the district.  When Howard Dean took over at the DNC, the Idaho Dems had one and a half staff people.  The party was disorganized, demoralized, and stretched to the limit.  The party now has five permanent staff and has been able to hire field coordinators.

  ... The good news with that is that there aren't any strings being pulled by outside forces, some of which are happy to offer lots of advice now that Grant's campaign is in the national spotlight.  Grant has the freedom to continue his thus far successful strategy in the campaign.  That strategy included "buying Idaho."

  An impressively telling sign that Grant is making waves is the news that Vice President Dick Cheney is making a stop in Idaho next week.  Just visiting, you know.  Maybe do a little hunting.  That's it.  No other reason.  "For all the coyness," writes mcjoan, "it seems pretty damned unlikely that a week and a half before the election Sali and Cheney just happen to be in the same remote Idaho town.  Maybe now the DCCC will take Idaho as seriously as the GOP does.

NY 03: Long Glib The King

  Markos Moulitsas at Daily Kos gets a kick out of the latest audacious remark from the blustery incumbent GOP Rep. Peter King.  In a video viewable here, King refers to the AARP and NAACP as "radical organizations," to which the audience responds with chuckles, giggles, and even a few guffaws.  "Like all NY Republicans," Kos writes, "Peter King is in serious danger of being swept out in a terrible year for the NY GOP."

  His challenger, Dem upstart Dave Mejias, is no pushover either.  Mejias is accusing King of lying about his son not being a lobbyist, and lying that his son "doesn't work with clients with business before him or his committee," while a video suggests otherwise, as reported at Newsday.  King denies everything and calls Mejias "desperate."  No word on whether Mejias guffawed about the characterization.

PA 02: Stepping In Your Own Schmidt

  "I've always wondered whether Jean Schmidt (R-OH) might eventually be kicked out of the House just for being stupid," writes Josh Marshall at Talking Points Memo.  "Not likely given the general level of excellence in the body."  And with that, he fills us in on Schmidt's latest gaffery:

  Schmidt's opponent Victoria Wulsin (D) just went on the air with an ad [viewable here] lambasting Schmidt's notorious statement from the House floor where she called congressman and Marine corps veteran John Murtha a coward.  Didn't go over that well, if you remember.  And after making up a few lies about it, Schmidt had to apologize.

  Apparently the ad has the Schmidt camp worried.  So they hit back hard by pointing out that the ad breaks House Rule V, which prohibits recordings of House proceedings from being used in political advertisements.  "Her continued violation will land her in serious trouble with the House Ethics Committee," barked Schmidt spokesman Matt Perin.

  "Only, as the Wulsin camp pointed out," Marshall wraps, "House Rules don't apply to people who aren't members of the House.  Doh!"

[Mike Sheehan]

10/27: Is Drudge Still King?

Ex-Navy Sec. James Webb's (D) novel's graphic sex scenes are not news to regular readers of righty blogs. Right Wing News excerpted some of the same passages quoted by Drudge Report back on 9/29, yet lefty bloggers paid no heed, and the Webb camp did not feel the need to respond. Drudge may not write enough to be considered a blogger, but his ability to drive a story still makes him a power in the online world.

LANDSCAPE: Projections Are Like Noses

Pollster.com unveiled their latest House scorecard 10/26 showing "219 seats in the Democratic column and 193 in the Republican column, with 23 seats showing neither candidate with a statistically meaningful lead." On the left, MyDD's Chris Bowers currently projects: "a Democratic gain of 24-29 seats, an improvement from 21-28 in the previous projection. Most, if not all, of this improvement comes from Upstate New York."

National Review Online's Rich Lowry forwards "an insider's take" on 47 close house races including seven "seats that look like they're gone." Lowry later adds six more "goners" and three "almost gone"s. Also at National Review Online, Kathryn Jean Lopez taps her own "regular Smart Hill Guys" for this take: "On a bad night, we can lose 30 seats. But, if we have solid performance over the next 13 days and the news cycle doesn't kill us, it could be a night of very close wins maintaining a close majority of 2 or 3. One thing is for certain, Iraq is a devastating issue for most of these races, and yesterday's press conference gave away another news cycle."

At RCP Blog, Jay Cost argues that the more engaged candidates are, the better the GOP is doing: " This is the case even for when Democratic candidates become engaged. Democratic spending is actually helpful to the Republican. ... All in all, the district's attention shifts from the national to the local. This enhances the Republican position."

On the left, Talking Points Memo invites readers to "go on the record with your predictions for election day" at their Talking Points Memo Community Pool. And on the right, Captain's Quarters and Right Angle Blog urge readers to give "one final round of contributions" for "ten candidates that we feel have the best opportunity to win their races" including Michele Bachmann (MN-06), Mike Bouchard (MI), Max Burns (GA-12), John Gard (WI-08), Thomas Kean (NJ), Mike McGavick (WA), David McSweeney (IL-08), Ray Meier (NY-24), Peter Roskam (IL-06), and Michael Steele (MD).

LANDSCAPE II: What Are We Fighting For?

MyDD's Jonathan Singer notes "the post-election debate over what type of mandate voters have given the winning party is already being shaped" and points to Ipsos Public Affairs polling showing "Likely Voters Favor Dems overs GOPers On Every Issue." Singer presses Dems to spin the election results as a "rejection of failed Republican policies" and "a complete embrace of the Democratic agenda" so that Pres. Bush cannot "stymie" Dem bills "without being upbraided by the political press." Also on the left, TPM Muckraker's Justin Rood adds Sen. Olympia Snowe (R-ME) and Rep. Ann Northup (R-KY) to a list of ten GOPers "saying Defense Secretary Donald Rumsfeld should be gone."

Captain's Quarters has highlights from a roundtable discussion on the economy and the upcoming elections featuring Reason's Nick Gillespie, Think Progress' Judd Legum, hosted by AP's Otis Hart. Power Line's John Hinderaker also keeps the focus on the economy with a "classic horror movie" examining "the consequences of Democrat victory on our tax code."

CT SEN: From San Francisco With Love

Busy in San Francisco, CA on his Audacity of Hope book tour, Sen. Barack Obama (D-IL) "sent out an email to his CT list supporting" cable exec Ned Lamont (D) 10/26. The official Lamont Blog posts Obama's message including: "Ned earned the Democratic Senate nomination through his hard work and clear message. And his victory paved the way for an entire crop of Democratic challengers to stand up and fight for the common good." Atrios comments: "This is no small thing given Lieberman was who he chose as his mentor in the Senate. Not the hugest thing, but still."

Sen. Joe Lieberman (I) had Sen. Mary Landrieu (D-LA) campaigning for him in Hartford, CT. MyDD's Matt Stoller wasn't impressed: "Landrieu is probably the worst Democratic Senator in the caucus, with the possible exception of Max Baucus. She's an utter Bush sycophant, even going above and beyond the reddish tinge of Louisiana. If you're looking for a reason that New Orleans is still devastated today, you have to look to her utter failure of leadership in forcing Bush to do anything to deal with the situation."

Over at My Left Nutmeg, Matt Browner Hamlin hopes the FEC will get movement going on the "Lieberman petty cash scandal.' Hamlin writes: "The FEC is required to let the Lamont campaign know if their complaint meets the required criteria for an investigation by their general counsel within five days of it's submission. The complaint was submitted on October 23rd, so the FEC is required to let Tom Swan know if the case will move forward by October 28tth."

MD SEN: Cardin Surrogateless?

Righty bloggers are excited about LG Michael Steele (R) performance in 10/26 debate with Rep. Ben Cardin (D-03). Ian at Hot Air has video highlights and writes: "The best doesn't come until the end, when Steele quizzed Cardin on plans for a metro system in the Baltimore area. Cardin failed miserably." Erick Erickson at RedState notes: "At a time when Ben Cardin should be sailing toward victory, he has yet to shore up his own base. The difficulty in doing so is compounded by the fact that he can't get black voters enthusiastic about him. It's a telling sign that none one of Maryland's black elected congressmen has appeared on TV or radio championing Ben Cardin."

MO SEN: Rush To Judgment

Michelle Malkin has dubbed this race "The Rush Limbaugh referendum" writing "if unhinged Limbaugh-haters want to make this election a referendum on the conservative talk radio right vs. the Hollywood left, Nancy Pelosi should toss her measuring tape and drape fabric in the trash can pronto. You will lose."

None on the left are giving any ground. Atrios looks at Katie Couricquestioning of Michael J. Fox on the issue and writes: "The conservative movement is sick, and I don't think there's anyone around willing to try to heal it."

National Review Online has video of Laura Ingraham arguing that Amendment 2 legalizes cloning and Erick Erickson at RedState claims: "There have now been three polls in Missouri taken during or after Michael J. Fox appeared on St. Louis television screens. ... Jim Talent is ahead for three polls in a row by three points in two polls and by two points in another, something that he hasn't seen in some time."

NJ SEN: Chris Matthews, Defender Of Ethnics Everywhere

Righty bloggers have Chris Matthews in their sites for his 10/26 suggestion that the GOP is "playing ethnic politics" with their Soprano's spoof ad attacking Sen. Bob Menendez (D) on ethics. National Review Online's Stephen Spruiell has video and writes: "Stop it Chris Matthews. You and people who share your weird, racial paranoia are poisoning the national debate and hurting the country."

At RedState, Liz Mair provides a non-racist explanation for the ad: "I guess they've have failed to notice that Menendez, their posterboy, is a grade-A scumbag plagued by allegations of corruption and, well, generally being a crook. ... Perhaps that's why the ad intimates a link between a mafioso crook and Menendez-- and not because Menendez is Hispanic and the mafioso is (presumably) Italian-American (i.e., both "ethnics")? Seems a pretty obvious point to me, but then I'm not a member of a party dumb enough to allow him in its ranks, am I?"

Captain's Quarters offers GOPers good news noting the latest CBS poll showing Menendez up 40%-39% over State Sen. Tom Kean (R) "underpolled independents and overpolled both Democrats and Republicans, especially Democrats. They increased Democrats by 48% of their actual standing and Republicans by only 21%, while reducing independents by 40 percent."

TN SEN: Welcome To The Jungle

Lefty bloggers are claiming to see "a racist pattern is emerging from the Republican consultants driving the anti-Ford campaign in Tennessee." TPM Cafe's Greg Sargent follows up on the ex-Chattanooga mayor Bob Corker (R) radio ad he claims uses "jungle drums." The Corker campaign responded to Sargent noting another pro-Corker ad used the same drums with out mentioning Ford. Sargent invites readers to listen to bothads and writes: "While it's true that the same music is playing in the ad, and it's true that there is some sort of drumming audible, it's still dramatically different from the radio ad, which pumps up the very loud rumble of drums every single time Ford's name is mentioned. They're just not comparable."

Sargent also links to a story in the Jewish Daily Forward on a TN GOP flyer which is about taxes and does not mention Ford but does use the phrase: "Vote early to preserve your way of life." The forward notes "in earlier decades, some white leaders used similar language in opposing civil rights for blacks." At Talking Points MemoJosh Marshall notes Corker's website refers to Ford as "an attractive young man" and asks: "What's Bob Corker's deal with Harold Ford's sex life?"

At The Huffington Post Arianna Huffington sees a silver lining in the "sleaze" the GOP is "raining down on TN" since it shows how desperate they are. Matthew Yglesias, on the other hand, thinks the Dems are playing into the GOP's hands.

Righty bloggers are not buying the racial element to the ad at all. National Review Online's Stephen Spruiell: "Only a racially paranoid moron could listen to this ad and concoct this loony "jungle drums" conspiracy."

Finally, RedState has another podcast with Corker.

VA SEN: National Review Not As Sensitive As They used To Be

At first Cornerites Rich Lowry and Kathryn Jean Lopez were dismissive of Drudge Report's Sen. George Allen (R) press release highlighting "graphic underage sex scenes" in novels by ex-Navy Sec. James Webb. But their in-boxes suggested the issue might matter. Lopez forwards this note: "Maybe you guys in Manhattan are desensitized to this filth, but the people of Roanoke, Lynchburg, Blacksburg, Fredericksburg, etc., aren't. And no way will these voters EVER accept the argument that it's only fiction." Wizbang also argues the story will hurt Webb.

Right Wing News reminds readers he exposed some of the same passages back on 9/29 and writes: "In case you're wondering, I did send an email to Drudge on Sept 29, 2006 and Oct 17, 2006. Whether he just didn't read them, read them and chose not to link, or whether he read them and waited for a timely opportunity to spring them, I don't know."

Lefty blogger reaction was swift and voluminous. The Huffington Post has entries from Steve Gilliard, James Boyce, Marty Kaplan, and Taylor Marsh on the subject.

Talking Points Memo's Josh Marshall suggests Dems respond by going after Allen's sealed divorce records and Daily Kos diarist thereisnospoon suggest Webb claim "that these passages were based on actual experiences from the hellhole of Vietnam."

In other news, Webb's Netroots Coordinator and Raising Kaine founder Lowell Feld notes Allen is using the same "racist" ad man that ex-Chattanooga mayor Bob Corker is using in TN.

National Review Online's Kathryn Jean Lopez forwards "An Important Message from Dr. James Dobson" to his "Virginia Friend"s including: "Sadly, one of your candidates-James Webb-is a die-hard supporter of abortion.

Finally, Captain's Quarters has Part I of an interview with Allen including:

CQ: Republican leaders have spoken about the threat of Democratic control of the House in order to ensure a strong turnout from the GOP base. In your estimation, what are the biggest problems that would create for a Republican-controlled Senate and the White House?

GA: I am concerned that a number of the positive policies we've been working on will be threatened - tax relief for families and small businesses, measures to keep our homeland safe, and reasonable tort reforms just to name a few. If we don't make these tax relief provisions permanent, they start expiring in 2008.

BAYH: Striking Out In The Clutch

Talking Points Memo's Josh Marshall notes Sen. John Kerry (D-MA) recently ponied up $500k and asks: "What about Evan Bayh? He's sitting on a ton of cash. Have we heard from him yet? It's hard to imagine any Democrat taking a presidential contender seriously next year when they left the whole team hanging at the clutch moment."

ROMNEY: What Year Is It Again?

While manyrightybloggers are still approvingly passing around video of MA Gov. Mitt Romney's rebuke of a Boston Globe reporter, Sen. John McCain (R-AZ) blogger aide Patrick Hynes is feuding with pro-Romney bloggers over Team Romney's response to Globe revelations that Romney intends to utilize Mormon Church connections as part of his '08 Wh run.

The Hedgehog Blog writes about an earlier Hynes post on Romney: "The Ankle-Biting Pundits piece is a breathtakingly nasty, disingenuous, and dirty slam. It clearly tries to gin up a story out of nothing-- recycling old quotes (at least one of them out of context) that were not even made in reference to the Boston Globe story. It really looks like something a political consultant for one of Romney's likely opponents would cook up.

Hynes responds with a timeline of the Romney/Mormon Church story highlighting his defenses of Romney throughout the matter. Hynes concludes: "So there you have it. Just the facts. Decide for yourselves. As for me, I continue to maintain that Romney has every right to seek the support of the Mormon community, though he should not use church resources to do it. The only question that remains is whether or not the Romney folks want to keep talking about this ... because I'll be happy to talk about it all year."

BLOGGERS VS. BELTWAY: Bombs Away

Due in part to a suspicion that some in the media "might want to use my very small campaign as a way to paint progressives and Democrats as a whole in a negative light" MyDD's Chris Bowers is done answering media inquries about his Google Bombing campaign, but does defend it:

There are three main differences between the campaign I started and other, similar campaigns. First, I did it out in the open with full transparency on my blog, using my name, and with my email in full view. Second, it is much more wide ranging, since it has multiple, simultaneous targets. Third, and most importantly, instead of targeting campaign talking points such as "flip flopper" or "miserable failure," this campaign worked to only use non-partisan media reports. No talking points. No opinion columns. A bare minimum use of alternative media. In other words, this campaign works solely to push news reports made by trusted, mainstream news outlets into the foreground during the final two weeks of the campaign season.

Right Wing News has no qualms about his parallel campaign ehich he updates readers on: "It's 3 days later -- which isn't very long -- and so far, 11 of the links to our first 45 targets have made it into the top 20. ... On the left, they had 52 targets and 18 made it in the top 20. ... Also, there tend to be a lot more negative articles about Republican candidates in the top 20 to begin with, so when you break it down, we're probably running about even." RWN then launches a new campaign, this time linking to negative YouTube videos. On RWN's target list: cable exec Ned Lamont (D-CT).

THOUGHT OF THE DAY: It's All Relative

Reacting to Kausfiles claims that gay rights have been progressing at "breathtaking speed" The Washington Monthly's Kevin Drum writes:

The Stonewall riots happened in 1969. Domestic partnership laws started springing up in the 70s and 80s. Sullivan wrote "Here Comes the Groom," an article for the New Republic that defended gay marriage, in 1989. The Hawaii Supreme Court ruled in 1993 that the state needed to show a "compelling state interest" in order to continue denying gay people the right to marry. Vermont passed a civil union law in 2000. Currently, we're in the year 2006. Is this "breathtaking speed"? It doesn't seem like it to me, unless you want to make the case that broad social changes literally shouldn't happen until every generation that objects to them has died off. But where would that leave the Feiler Faster Thesis?

LEST WE FORGET: Speaking Of Waves

The APreports Krazy George Henderson is celebrating the 25th anniversary of the creation of the "wave" during game four of the Oakland Athletics playoff loss to the New York Yankees in '81. The AP quotes Krazy: "It's been really interesting ... I see it at the Olympics. There's a video of Fidel Castro doing it. If it had actually originated in New York at a Yankees game, they would have thought it was sent by the gods."

Blogometer Extra

AL GOV: Nall's To The Wall

  You might have heard of Loretta Nall, the Libertarian write-in candidate in Alabama's gubernatorial race.  She gained recent notoriety for a print ad in which she appears with her ample cleavage just above the words "More of these BOOBS!!" while pictures of 'Bama politicians are on the bottom, framed by "And Less Of these BOOBS!!"

  Jeralyn at TalkLeft endorses Nall, and not just because she's a "long-time reader" with whom "we've emailed several times over the years."  Despite the press coverage, Nall is serious about her run and is pushing four key platform points, to wit:

Legalize marijuana;

End the Iraq War;

Don't comply with the Patriot Act;

Legalize the state's undocumented immigrants.

  Nall just appeared on Keith Olbermann's show (vid here) and says if she loses the race, "she'll run for Congress in 2008," taking on a whole new set of boobs.

AZ 01: Feeding Renzi

  The press is salivating over what could turn out to be yet another Congressional implosion, namely the campaign of incumbent GOP Rep. Rick Renzi.  Josh Marshall at Talking Points Memo has the scoop (or scoops, as it were):

  Just a short while ago we alerted you to the AP story breaking the news that Renzi is the subject of a federal investigation centering on a shady land deal.  We'd been working on that story too.  And a short time after the AP story broke, TPMmuckraker.com followed up with more details we have about the transaction and the subsequent investigation.

  Because of that we weren't surprised to see the New York Times following on these stories with their own piece about the Renzi probe.

  But I got a bit more surprised when I read the Times piece by David Johnston and realized that they were reporting an investigation into what appears to be an entirely separate bad act.  This one's about an investigation into a piece of legislation Renzi introduced to help what the Times calls a telecom company that happens to employ his Renzi's father.

AR GOV: Kos's Ark

  Markos Moulitsas over at Daily Kos is gloating over new SurveyUSA figures which show Dems are set to "sweep the state" in the gubernatorial division.  "With a sweep of the statewide offices, two US senators, three of four congressional seats, 27 of 35 state senate seats, and 72 of 100 state house seats," Kos writes, "Arkansas is well on its way to becoming a ... Democratic state," making one-party rule sound like a good thing.

CT 04: Shayskopf

  Noting that he's "taken more and more stands with which we have profound disagreement," the New York Times pulls its past support for incumbent GOP Rep. Chris Shays and instead endorses Dem opponent Diane Farrell, Greg Sargent reports at TPMCafe.  More from the endorsement:

  [In the past,] The Times chose to endore [Shays] as a rare voice for moderation within a Republican caucus that seemed bent on distracting the electorate with assaults on gay marriage, flag burning and abortion while running up the deficit, encouraging a ruinous war in Iraq and supporting a White House bent on exalting the power of the president at the expense of the Constitution.

  Now it is time to draw the line.  Mr. Shays may be a beacon of integrity, but if he is re-elected, he will vote to continue House control by a party that has repeatedly sold out the country to special-interest lobbyists.

  While DemFromCT remarks at Daily Kos that "this should make at least a small difference," Sargent feels that it "could tip the race."

ID GOV: Otter Pops

  mcjoan at Daily Kos, writing from Idaho, says to "relish the thought that this deep red state is starting to tinge just a little bit purple."

  What's prompting mcjoan's glee is a new poll that puts Dem candidate for Gov Jerry Brady finally ahead of GOPer Butch Otter after a year and a half of, in Rumsfeldian terms, hard slog.  (mcjoan notes that the race is more accurately a dead heat, but "a dead heat in Idaho two weeks before the election" is good enough.)

  So why the sinking Otter and the bouncing Brady?  mcjoan explains:

Brady ... hit particularly hard on the public lands issue.  It resonates in this land where hunting, fishing, and outdoor recreation reign.  And against Butch Otter particularly, who earned the wrath of many westerners when he co-sponsored legislation for a massive one time sell-off of western public lands for Hurricane Katrina relief. ...

  The public lands issue can't be oversold in a state like Idaho... Otter's support for the sell-off alone accounts for the overwhelming support Brady has received from all of the hunting and fishing organizations.  Not only do these sites provide for recreation for the states' residents, they are the backbone to the growing tourism industry in both states--dollars that shore up both states' economies.  It's hard to overestimate the resonance Brady's theme "Idaho is Not For Sale" has with Idaho voters.

  But he's also been doing work on the ground.  He's been to every one of Idaho's 44 counties and has organized all over the state.  His opponent has approached this race from the beginning with the sense that it was his birthright, though he did take a cynical step or two to make himself more palatable to the state's more morally conservative voters, particularly the Mormons.  He finally married his girlfriend of ten years (after they both got annulments from their previous marriages).

IN 03: Making Hayhurst

  James L. at Swing State Project takes note of something amazing building in Indiana's 3rd District.

  Recently, Democrats added Dem challenger Tom Hayhurst, in a "longshot" race against GOP incumbent Rep. Mark Souder, to its list of hot races.  "At the time," James writes, "I was skeptical, being inclined to believe that the move was merely a recognition of Hayhurst's fairly good fundraising more than anything else."  But lo, what light through yonder tunnel end breaks?

  I might have to change my mind, though, after I read this Hotline piece, detailing the NRCC's decision to buy $72,000 worth of ad time for Souder.  That's not a large amount, but at the same time, it shouldn't be necessary for the NRCC to buy any ad time at all in a district this reliably Republican.

  The NRCC is fanning their money around wide.  Mighty wide, it seems, for a piece of it to end up defending their hold on IN-03.

MN 05: Oh Ellison, My Aim Is True

  John continues Power Line's jihad against Democrat Keith Ellison's candidacy for the open 5th District seat, and can't help but gloat a little that someone other than Blogometer and a few schadenfreudal voyeurs are taking note.  Apparently.  John writes:

  [W]ord of the seamier side of Ellison's character appears to have percolated into the awareness of quite a few voters, mainly through Scott's efforts.  How else explain the fact that CAIR, a terrorist-linked organization, has bought time on local television for an ad that tries to distance the Muslim religion from mass murder?

  CAIR's effort is fundamentally misguided, I think, and attacks a straw man.  The relevant question is not whether Muslims in general support terrorism.  The questions are 1) whether CAIR, Ellison's patron, supports terrorism, and 2) whether Ellison himself has a long history of advocacy in favor of gang members and other criminals who murder and attempt to murder policemen.  CAIR's ad, needless to say, sheds no light on these issues.

  But it may shed some light on whether Ellison is cruising to victory quite so easily as had been expected in Minnesota's heavily Democratic 5th District.

NY 24: Arcuri Hears A Horton

  Robert B. Bluey at the conservative Human Events's The Ballot Box openly admits that a recent GOP ad "attacking Democrat Mike Arcuri's record as district attorney ... strikes a theme similar to the Willie Horton ad that sank Michael Dukakis' presidential ambitions in 1988.  (The ad is viewable here.)  Bluey writes:

  The ad begins with a photo of a man named Thomas Griffiths, who the announcer says served time for felony sex abuse and was later jailed for another sex crime.  After Griffiths cooperated with the Oneida County district attorney's office, one of Arcuri's deputies wrote a letter on Griffiths' behalf to the parole board.  But Griffiths was arrested again after his release, leading the announcer to accuse Arcuri of breaking his promise to "create a safer community."

  What type of impact will the ad have on Arcuri?  There's no question that the attacks on his character are will pay off to some degree on November 7.  Whether voters decide to stay home or simply refuse to pull the lever for someone they view with suspicion (thanks in part to the stir created by the phone-sex ad last week), it's a strategy the NRCC seems eager to push from now until Election Day.

  Stepping away from the slight "ick" factor, meanwhile, Bluey throws some light on--oh yeah!--the GOP candidate for the open seat, Ray Meier, a "solid conservative who is running this competitive race."

NC 11: Tattle Taylor

  Jonathan Singer at < a href="http://www.mydd.com/story/2006/10/25/142120/68">MyDD is covering the latest in another of the seemingly endless parade of GOP Congressmen being probed, investigated, scrutinized etc. in the final weeks of the election season.

&nsbp; Taylor's folly, it seems, are "shady land deals" that have incumbent GOP Rep. Charles Taylor "in some heat."  Singer quotes from The Hill:

  Public land records in Haywood County, N.C., show that a company registered to [Taylor] owns 17 plots of land in the mountain community of Maggie Valley, an interest that tax records indicate is worth more than $500,000.

The records raise questions about an assertion Taylor made in an Oct. 12 statement, part of a strong public defense mounted by the House Appropriations "cardinal" after a Wall Street Journal report alleged this month that Taylor steered federal funds to projects that would benefit businesses in which he has an interest.

  Taylor, Singer notes, is "already facing his fair share of scandals," including one involving, in a roundabout way, the KGB (!).  "In short," says Singer, "this guy exudes the stench of corruption (or at least ethical impropriety), and the news that he lied about his land holdings in an effort to distract voters from yet another scandal isn't going to change many minds in his favor."

PA 04: Hart In The Right Place

  Jay Cost at The RealClearPolitics Blog gets wind of some recent poll data showing incumbent GOP Rep. Melissa Hart with "only a 4% lead, with 11% undecided" against upstart Dem Jason Altmire.  Cause for alarm?  Au contraire, writes Cost:

  This week I hypothesized that one reason that second- and third-tier districts show soft GOP leads was because GOP candidates had yet to unload their expansive war chests.  Accordingly, voters were still "floating" with the national news media and their assessment of the mood.  This district would be an archetypical example if this hypothesis is true.  Hart, as of 10/1, had more than $1.1 million in the bank, compared to Altmire's $275 K.  By that date, she had only spent $763 K.  According to the theory I offered: when she unloads that war chest, these numbers will move in her direction.  The internals of the poll are consistent with this "floating" hypothesis. ...

  It seems that Altmire's support does not seem to reflect genuine pro-Altmire sentiment, but rather a general political mood.  Hart can, and will, spend $2 million in all to define both him and herself -- setting herself apart from what the district is upset about, and casting Altmire as an unacceptable alternative to what frustrates the voters.  And Altmire lacks the cash to respond.

  In other words, money talks and... well, you know the rest.  Cost helpfully points out that "this poll is a sign that the GOP is going to have to spend money to defend its 'outer-rim' districts... I think money will save all of them, but money is what is needed. 

  "That," wraps the coincidentally-named Cost, "is the price they must pay for their unpopularity."

WY AL: Rankin Yanker

  "Seriously, what is it Republicans and their tempers this cycle?" asks Markos Moulitsas at Daily Kos.  "They're cracking under the pressure."

  He's speaking of the incident in which incumbent GOP Rep. Barbara Cubin "went psycho on the disabled, wheelchair-bound Libertarian candidate Thomas Rankin."  Per the Casper Star Tribune:

  The verbal sparring between two candidates for Wyoming's lone U.S. House seat didn't end when the televised debate ended Sunday evening.

  Immediately after the lights and cameras shut down, incumbent Republican U.S. Rep. Barbara Cubin walked to Libertarian candidate Thomas Rankin, who had criticized her for receiving contributions from former House Speaker Tom Delay, R-Texas.

  "'If you weren't sitting in that chair, I'd slap you across the face,'" Cubin told Rankin, he said Monday.

  What specifically smoked Cubin's cigar?  Per her spokesman, Rankin "misrepresented her and insulted her integrity during the debate."  Kos doesn't buy it, noting that Cubin has taken over $22 grand from Tom DeLay's ARMPAC.  "Rankin told the truth," writes Kos.  "So what the hell was Barbara Cubin's problem?  She's feeling the heat, that's her problem."

  For her part, Cubin later apologized, and it remains to be seen whether anyone actually in "blood-red Wyoming" was even paying attention.

[Mike Sheehan]

10/26: Iraq Is King

If you were hoping gay marriage, stem cells, or new Foley scandal revelations would bounce Iraq out of the top issue spot this cycle, you're gonna be disappointed. Perhaps court decisions granting marriage rights to gays just don't carry the shock value they used to. But whatever the reason, few bloggers are predicting the issue will be a boon for the GOP this time around. Instead, local issues/scandals are dominating even the nat'l 'sphere. In TN, race baiting is front and center, while MD and MO races have bloggers focussed on stem cells. But everywhere, Iraq is the underlying issue. The one keeping Pres. Bush away from districts where he took 62% in '04.

GAY MARRIAGE: October Unsurprise

Plenty of blogger reaction to New Jersey Supreme Court's decision to grant gay couples the same marriage rights as straight couples, but little of it election focussed. National Review Online's Kathryn Jean Lopez suggests the Family Research Council "folks" she recently was with "now have their reason to vote" but she also doesn't believe the decision will help State Sen. Tom Kean Jr. (R) since "he's against a federal marriage amendment."

Kausfiles suggests Dems may have dodged a "Big Gay Bullet" when the court granted gay couples rights without calling it marriage thus avoiding "having the state instantly become, in AP's pre-anticipatory words, "the nation's gay wedding chapel." Hot Air's Allahpundit also sees "no effect" for the GOP this fall. Right Angle Blog's Chris Field, however, does argue that the "The N.J. court just gave the Republican Party a major campaign issue."

Non-election related reaction spanned the spectrum from AMERICAblog criticising the court for not going far enough, to National Review Online readers asking if they could now marry their mother.

Andrew Sullivan and Instapundit both approve of the decision, though Sullivan is the most happy: "I think this is a perfectly sane compromise. It's what the Brits have done. Leave the m-word to the churches; but let the state grant equal protection under the law. The Christianists can no longer claim that we are redefining civil marriage in New Jersey. We're just being fair to gay couples who, as citizens, have every right to be treated equally under the law.

Elsewhere The Volokh Conspiracy argues "this decision, whether you like it or not, seems to be an illustration that the slippery slope is a real phenomenon." And Captain's Quarters suggest "true libertarians would argue that government should stop sanctioning marriages altogether and just treat them at the contractual level."

STEM CELLS: Apparently, Lefty Bloggers Don't Like Rush Limbaugh

Crooks and Liars has video from Keith Olbermann's Countdown showing conservative talk radio host Rush Limbaugh imitating Michael J. Fox's Parkinson symptoms. Lefties were appalled:

• Josh Marshall at Talking Points Memo: "The man's a blight. As I said below, making fun of people suffering from a debilitating disease would send most folks into a career crisis. As TPM Reader DC says, "He's vile; a real pig and a terrible terrible commentary on the state of our national life."
• AMERICAblog: "Limbaugh is doing the GOP's dirty work. The candidates know it. Their failure to criticize Rush speaks volumes. So, they own Rush. Every reporter covering these races should be asking Talent, Steele and Green if they agree with the hero of the GOP, Rush Limbaugh."
• Russell Shaw at The Huffington Post: "Rush knew full well what he was saying. A native Missourian, he made the charges against Fox for political reasons. Rush is playing to the conservative base in Missouri. The folks that maybe with Mel Gibson excepted, reflexively don't like Hollywood-even a polite actor such as Fox.
• Firedoglake's Jane Hamsher: "Rush is paid, and valued, for his role in getting that kind of ugly stuff into circulation. And those like Brian Williams or Howard Kurtz (who claims that Rush is "so mainstream") don't seem to care that he does this stuff all the time.
• The Washington Monthly's Kevin Drum: "Actually, I'm sort of happy to see this. Too often it's been liberals who respond to tough ads with whining, but now conservatives are doing it instead - and it's a sign of weakness. If conservatives want to defend Talent's position, they should go right ahead and do so. But accusing Michael J. Fox of faking his symptoms and then complaining that a 30-second spot isn't a Brookings white paper? That shows a kind of helpless desperation that it's nice to see on the other side for once."

On the right, Townhall's Dean Barnett answers eleven questions about the Fox ad including whether or not it will be effective: "It won't be effective. One of the key maxims in advertising is never disquiet the audience. If you do, you alienate them. This ad is most definitely disquieting."

RedState's Erick Erickson offers a fullthroated defense of Limbaugh: "To be clear, Rush said that he thought Michael J. Fox was either acting or off his meds in that commercial. In fact, Michael J. Fox has admitted to going off his medicine when he wants to make a point about Parkinson's Disease. In fact, if you've seen Michael J. Fox on TV in the last year, you'll note that his tremors were much more pronounced in the political stunt from this past Sunday." And Kathryn Jean Lopez at National Review Online explains how Jim Caveziel's Aramaic phrase in the Fox response ad relates to MO's Amendment 2.

TERROR POLITICS: Bush As Lucy

Many lefty bloggers had video of a new DNC ad up and running even before Pres. Bush's 10/25 press conference. TPM Cafe's Greg Sargent summarizes: "The ad shows Bush, Dick Cheney and Tony Snow repeating "stay the course" no less than 15 times before abruptly pivoting to Bush saying: "Listen, we've never been stay the course." The coup de grace: "Mr. President, America deserves more than a change in rhetoric. America deserves a change in strategy."

AMERICAblog's John Aravosis live-blogged the news conference, beseeching the media to toughen up on Bush: "Okay media: where's the substantial statement on Iraq? You were DUPED again by the White House. You are all like Charlie Brown kicking the football. The Bush team does this to you over and over. It's a scam for free air time on all the networks. The funny thing is that this time, it hurts the GOP. Bush is making Iraq THE ONLY ISSUE and that hurts the Republicans."

Firedoglake's Christy Hardin Smith doesn't like MSM talk of Bush's "honesty" at the press conference and argues that the Pres. did not offer any meaningful change to his Iraq policy except for the addition of benchmarks that the Maliki government must meet. And on those benchmarks, at The Huffington PostStephen Kaus wants to know what the administration's plan is if the Maliki government misses any of them.

Bush also received righty blogger criticism on the benchmark question. National Review Online's Mario Loyola: "The administration needs to explain its own benchmarks to the American people-in a way that avoids causing a fight with the Maliki government. So far, it seems to be failing on both counts - and that is NOT a course this administration wants to stay on."

Finally, The Plank's Ryan Lizza notes that Rep. John Hostettler (R-IN) has an ad out "touting his vote against the war" and that the Hoosier "won't even allow Bush to visit the district" despite his 62%in 2004.

TERROR POLITICS II: Bush As Vexed

Pres. Bush sat down with conservative journalists 10/25 including Michael Barone, Tony Blankley, Daniel Henninger, Charles Krauthammer, Lawrence Kudlow, Kathleen Parker, Mark Steyn, and Byron York. York writes:

At times during the conversation, the president seemed vexed - not beaten, not downcast, but vexed - by conditions in Iraq. Bush didn't say so, but from his words it seemed hard to deny that in some significant measure the insurgents and the sectarian killers are in control in the country, and that the fate of the American mission is in their hands. "The frustration is that the definition of success has now gotten to be, how many innocent people are dying?" the president said. "And if there's a lot dying, it means the enemy is winning." He paused. "That doesn't mean they're winning."

Barone has a transcript of the session and adds:

Bush started off with a lengthy monologue, trying to put a historical perspective on where we are now. He clearly sees his primary mission as protecting the American people from the terrorists who want to do everything they can to hurt and destroy us and our civilization. He makes the point that we ought to listen to their words when they threaten to kill us-even though our first instinct is to flinch and turn away from threats that, if taken seriously, are extremely disturbing. Later he returned to this theme. The September 11 attacks made it clear, he said, that we're at war, and we're still at war. These terrorists want to kill us and destroy our civilization, and they will use any excuse that comes to mind-Israel, the Crusades, and if not the Crusades then the cartoons.

LANDSCAPE: Depressed In The West?

National Review Online's Ramesh Ponnuru forwards worries from "one well-known Republican strategist" about early losses in IN, KY, CT, NY, and PA affecting west coast districts: "We could be down a dozen [House seats] by 9:30 Eastern. If the networks report that the House has flipped, what does that do to Wilson and Pombo and Doolittle and Reichert?"

Also at National Review Online, Jim Geraghty shares emails assessing early GOTV efforts across the country including good GOP efforts in CO, but spotty ones in VA.

Both RCP Blog's John McIntyre and Outside the Beltway comment on Karl Rove's appearance on NPR with Robert Siegel. McIntyre reports: "Rove crystallizes the disconnect going with the analysis in this election. The press and pundits appear to be overly obsessed with the generic national polls that show big Democratic leads but when you start to break down the individual races that Democrats have to win to get control of each chamber it is far from a sure thing that the Democrats will capture either house. The Senate has improved noticeably for Republicans these last few days, the current RCP Senate Averages now project only a 4 seat pick up for the Democrats, two short of what they need for control."

MD SEN: Can You Name The Green Candidate?

DailyKos' founder Markos Moulitsas notes both NRSC and DSCC polls have LG Michael Steele (R) around 40% while the DSCC poll pushes more leaners into Rep. Ben Cardin's (D-03) column moving him from 41% to 52%. Markos also notes: "There's one other difference in poll methodologies -- it looks like the NRSC polled the Green candidate by name while the DSCC didn't (I'm double checking on that). If so, that could also account for some of the discrepancy in numbers."

On the right, Power Line's Paul Mirengoff urges readers to "Annoy the Washington Post, contribute to the Steele campaign" and posts video of Steele's new ad.

TN SEN: Well, If Chris Matthews Is Pissed ...

Lefty bloggers are up in arms over the "full-out racist tactics" of GOPers in TN. MyDD's Chris Bowers notes: "Even Chris Matthews is pissed." Upset over a NRSC ad using a "ditzy blonde" to remind voters of Rep. Harold Ford Jr.'s (D-09) attendance at a Super Bowl Playboy party, Talking Points MemoJosh Marshall suggest we should all "be honest with ourselves. Racism is one of the key building blocks of Republican politics in the United States." Marshall concludes by celebrating the GOP's decision to run the ad: "The point is that as vile as this race-hucksterism is, for my part I welcome the opportunity that Republican desperation provides, to show these guys for who they really are. Scratch the surface of 'outreach' Mehlman and he's a Southern strategy man after all. So, fine, bring it on. Cut away the veil and the mask. Let everyone come out from under their rock and be who they really are.

TPM Cafe's Greg Sargent also reports that stations in Nashville and Chattanooga are refusing to air the RNC's replacement ad "without further verification from the RNC of the claims in the ad" which include attacks on Ford's positions on gay marriage, abortion, and for taking money from porn producers.

Sargent also reports that ex-Chattanooga mayor Bob Corker's (R) new radio ad "has what sounds like tom-tom drums playing in the background every time the ad talks about Dem Harold Ford" Sargent then quotes WGOW program director Bill Lockhart: "They're freaking jungle-drums ...I t's racist -- it tries to conjure up deep, dark African moods. Yeah, it's overtly racial." Audio here.

Townhall's Mary Katharine Ham argues Corker should never have called for the ads removal and is "glad it's gotten blanket coverage because of Ford's inane accusations." RCP Blog's Tom Bevan also defends the ad arguing "the "ditsy blonde bimbo" is a more accurate caricature of what we all picture when we think "Playboy bunny." National Review Online's Rich Lowry labels the ad a "Bull's Eye."

Not everyone on the left is happy with Ford though. DailyKos' founder Markos Moulitsas looks at Ford's non-support of NJ's decision on gay marriage and writes: "How f---ing awful! It's a disgrace! Equal rights? Pshaw! How dare the NJ Supreme Court refuse to allow discrimination? Yeah, I want Ford to win. But I won't cry when he doesn't."

KERRY: You Win Some, You Lose Some

Firedoglake's Jane Hamsher calls Sen. John Kerry (D-MA) a "Stand Up Guy" for campaigning with cable exec Ned Lamont (D) in East Hartford, CT. hamsher writes: "Kerry deserves some big netroots praise for his willingness to buck the Incumbency Protection Racket and listen to what Democratic voters are saying."

Meanwhile back in DC, AMERICAblog's John Aravosis takes offense at calls from Kerry's PAC for cash since "Kerry knows people are in a giving spirit, so he's taking advantage of their generosity and their naivete. What a surprise - John Kerry, the man for whom political stunts matter more than results (think: Davos filibuster)."

ROMNEY: People-Powered Politics

Righty bloggers are loving MA Gov. Mitt Romney latest press conference exchange with a Boston Globe reporter. Power Line's Paul Mirengoff describes Romney's reaction to a rambling question: "Eventually, Romney interrupted by joking, "Do you have a point of view on this?" The reporter responded, "I represent the people, governor." To which Romney said, "No, I represent the people, you represent the media." RedState has video of the exchange.

BLOGGERS VS. BELTWAY: Blogger See, Blogger Do

Talking Points Memo's Josh Marshall notes the success of MyDD's Chris Bowers "Use It Or Lose It" campaign linking to a story showing Sens. Ted Kennedy (D-MA) and John Kerry (D-MA) donating $500K apiece split between the DSCC and the DCCC. At MyDD Bowers later argues he does not want the credit since Dem incumbents will be more likely to give if it looks like they came up with the idea on their own.

The campaign also had the desired effect on Rep. Marty Meehan (D-MA). MyDD's Matt Stoller first put up a post titled "Marty Meehan: Greedy, Short-sighted, and not the next MA Senator" that also called Meehan "sleazy" but later Stoller updated readers: "Apparently he's chipping in some cash. Good for Marty!"

Righty bloggers have also noticed Bowers efforts and Right Wing News asks: "So, why shouldn't we do the same thing? It only makes sense, right?" RWN puts together his own list of flush GOP incumbents and Right Angle Blog's Robert Bluey suggests those incumbents give to the 21 candidates on the Rightroots list.

BLOGGERS VS. BELTWAY II: Haven't Seen The Last Of This Story Yet

Many righty bloggers are linking to this Gay Patriot post highlighting reports that the Human Rights Campaign recently fired a new employee for his role in posting the Foley/page e-mails to the "Stop Sex Predators" website.

BLOGGER VS. BLOGGER: Soul Caliber

Andrew Sullivan sat down for a lengthy interview on Hugh Hewitt's radio show about Sullivan's new book The Conservative Soul. Transcript here, audio here, and blogger round up via Hewitt here.

THOUGHT OF THE DAY: Student Athletes No More

TAPPED's Ben Adler looks at George Will's latest op-ed on college athletics and offers his own solution:

The only problem with the piece is that Will seems to buy into the standard approach to this issue, which is to suggest ways of scaling back the business side of college sports and improving the academic experience for college athletes. Clearly, the business is too lucrative, and the fans are too crazed, for this to ever happen. Rather, as I've argued before, college athletics should be spun off from the schools that sponsor them. College athletes who are clearly not academically qualified should be paid an actual salary, commensurate with their monetary value, rather than being given tuition to a school they will never get a degree from. Will is right about the problem, but his hope that "embarrassing" the college athletic directors into better behavior will solve the problem is naive. People who see the fundamental problems with college sports must accept that the whole "student-athlete" paradigm is outdated and only a radical solution will make a real change.

LEST WE FORGET: Hold All Our Calls

Do you spend too much time blogging? Then this video may be your life.

Blogometer Update: House Edition

LANDSCAPE: N.E. Which A. But Lose

  DK at Talking Points Memo fills us in on what the National Education Association has been up to.  He notes "major independent expenditures" in three districts:

  [T]he NV-3 held by Republican Jon Porter is looking like it's in play.  To aid the effort, the NEA Fund for Children and Public Education has dropped $378,000 into that race.

  In the AZ-5, the NEA is getting serious about knocking off Rep. J.D. Hayworth, with a $491,000 push.  And in the NM-1, where Patricia Madrid and Heather Wilson are in a tight race, the NEA has put down $200,000.

  The point here is not to document every last dime being spent, but to get a sense of when the battle is being joined, who is engaging in the fight, and where the stakes are the highest.

  DK is nice enough to note at the bottom that "the NEA, the teachers union, is siding with the Dems in these races."

CO 04: Not Digging Musgrave

  John Aravosis at AMERICAblog doesn't mince words: he wants "anti-gay bigot" Marilyn Musgrave, the incumbent GOP Rep. from Colorado's 7th, outta there.  Seeking donations for Dem challenger Angie Paccione, Aravosis rails, "Let's give the religious right a black eye they'll never forget."

  He continues:

  Paccione is taking on Republican Congresswoman Marilyn Musgrave, the author and chief sponsor of the Federal Marriage Amendment - i.e., the legislation that would amend the US Constitution to make it anti-gay.

  This race is extremely competitive and Paccione has a real chance to take down Musgrave, the religious right darling and close friend of George Bush who thinks gay marriage is the most important issue in America (seriously).

ID 01: Swift Kick In The Grant

  The GOP's Club for Growth lads are leery as hell that Dem challenger Larry Grant is "within striking distance" of fellow challenger for the vacant district, Republican Bill Sali.  Now with, as mcjoan at Daily Kos reports, The Idaho Stateman endorsing Grant, the C for G has gone into action, "pumping in an emergency transfusion of $180k for oppositional TV ads against Grant..." per James at Swing State Project.

  CfG does its usual ad rantorama, mixing "misleading information" and things taken out of context, "cheating the public out of their need for trusted, abundant, accurate, factual information."  Grant isn't standing for it, if this ad is any proof.

IN 07: Biggus Dickerson

  Is it possible, in these heady times of GOP unpopularity, that a Democratic incumbent could blow a huge lead to a car salesman who's gotten zero support from the Republican home office?  Not only is it possible, but "an unexpected buzzsaw" is happening right now in Indiana's 7th, where Eric Dickerson--who once trailed by 20 points--has overtaken incumbent Julia Carson.  Captain Ed at the Quarters has more:

  The national party has done nothing for Dickerson, who has prided himself on the independence of his candidacy.  However, the GOP may soon look to this race to help them keep control of the House, and the national media may discover this race rather soon.  Keep an eye on Indiana.

NV 03: To Hafen And Hafen Not

  Jonathan Singer at MyDD sees the balance potentially tipping in a heretofore "fairly tight race" between incumbent GOPer Jon Porter and Dem challenger Tessa Hafen.

  Singer writes that now comes "a potentially groundshaking allegation" from Porter's own staff.  "[T]he Representative made several fundraising phone calls from his official office -- a big no-no that could have legal as well as political ramifications."

  But are the Democrats leaping onto this opening?  Singer doesn't get the warm fuzzy yet:

  To begin, this is a race that the DCCC should be focusing on.  Now one might argue that Hafen's fundraising prowess, perhaps aided by her work in the office of Senate Democratic Leader Harry Reid, would make any DCCC expenditure in the district superfluous, and there was probably some credence there before this news story came out.  But given the nature of these allegations, the DCCC must seriously consider putting money into Nevada 3.  Remember, an attack ad from the DCCC would almost certainly be more effective than one paid for and approved by Hafen simply for the fact that Hafen would likely be better served by remaining above the fray on this issue.

  Singer says he'll be "keeping an eye" on forthcoming expenditures.

PA 07: Curtis Blow

  Josh Marshall at Talking Points Memo finds it "amazing that Rep. Curt Weldon is still even in this race."  Marshall quotes Philadelphia Daily News on the latest audaciousness from ole Moon-man himself:

Sestak described how he'd gone to elementary school at St. Kevin's, right next door, and to Cardinal O'Hara High School, just down the road, before signing up for the Naval Academy during the Vietnam War.  "Unlike others, I decided I did want to serve my country," Sestak said.

That was apparently a bit too pointed for Weldon, who got a teaching deferment to avoid the Vietnam draft and never served in the military.  Weldon said he had put himself in harm's way as a volunteer fireman, stuck between an oil tanker and a refinery fire.

"Have you ever faced a similar situation, Joe, or are you always in the admiral's quarters, drinking out of your wine goblets and being waited on by your sailor servants?" Weldon asked.

  "Most officers in the Navy get their first commission as an admiral, right?" asks Marshall.  "How is this goof still in Congress?"

  Weldon's going to need more than a purple bandage to endure the slam from Sestak himself in a new ad from his campaign that is among the most effective of the election year so far.  See for yourself here.  Bob Geiger at Huffington Post remarks, "Watch this ad a few times, Democratic Veterans... [T]his is how Democrats need to deal with this crap.  Kudos to Sestak and his campaign."

PA 10: For Unlawful Carney Knowledge

  Apparently Weldon-itis has speared to the 10th, where Republicans sent out a mailer more or less blaming a Democrat for the Iraq war.  Take The Corner's word for it at National Review:

  ...[A]n RNC mailing targeting Chris Carney, a naval reserve officer and Democrat challenging Republican Phil Sherwood in upstate Pennsylvania, accuses Carney of starting the Iraq war by demonstrating a link between Saddam and multiple terrorist groups.

 p; This mailing is shameless.  Carney was a reservist activated and sent to the Pentagon.  He had reams of old reports and raw data dumped on his desk and was asked to review it.  He did his service.  That he raised questions about links and meetings that the CIA couldn't answer, well, that says a lot more about the analysis wing at the CIA than about anything else.

  ... It is even more disturbing that, as their source, the RNC mailing used a 2004 article by the former "Middle East intelligence correspondent" of the Lyndon LaRouche movement.  His source?  Karen Kwiatkowski, a former Pentagon Morocco desk officer whom the Senate Select Committee on Intelligence suggested was a fabricator in a 2004 report.

  "Republicans are better than Democrats on national security and terrorism," continues The Corner.  They wrap: "Note to Pennsylvania Republicans: laying the Ned Lamont populist card is both counterproductive and irresponsible."

10/25: Faceless No More

Sen. John Kerry's (D-MA) hopes of gaining any netroots support for an '08 run took a hit 10/24 when spokesman David Wade defended Kerry's giving to Dem challengers by saying: "Cowards can hide behind anonymous Web sites but Democrats out in the country, party leaders and real net-roots activists know how hard John Kerry has fought to win these elections." Wade was referring to the anonymous HeyJohn.org website. But that site has been, at best, a fringe player in a campaign headed by the extremely visible Chris Bowers of MyDD. Like it or not, blogger influence is growing inside and outside the beltway, and '08 hopefuls must familiarize themselves, and their staffs, with who these bloggers are and what they're up to. Otherwise, they might accidentally denigrate hard-working activists, the way Wade did.

BLOGGER VS. BELTWAY: Better Late Than Never

TPM Cafe's Stirling Newberry notes MyDD's Chris Bowers' Use It Or Lose It campaign is "officially all over the traditional media" appearing in the Washington Post, the New York Times, and the Los Angeles Times. The Washington Monthly's Kevin Drum comments on the LA Times piece: "I thought it was interesting that Brownstein is now taking the time to follow blogs closely and report on what they're up to, The times, they are a changin. But not changing too much. Brownstein's conclusion so far? Democrats are being "cordial but resistant." In other words, they're holding onto their cash."

Not all Dems have been resistant so far. Rep. Earl Blumenauer (D-OR) writes at MyDD: "I deeply appreciate the "Use It or Lose It" project spotlighting the fact that there is over $50 million available for competitive House Democrats sitting unused in congressional campaign accounts. One of my assignments for the Democratic caucus has been to encourage Democratic House members to not just sit on money, but step up and use it. ... I've been in the top 15% of members of Congress in support of other campaigns, more than many people much more senior than I and with more powerful committee positions."

Bowers also thanks Rep. Barney Frank (D-MA) for giving a total of $1.1M "raised or contributed" this cycle. Bowers comments: "Well done, Congressman Frank! Barney Frank is doing what it takes to capitalize on our extraordinary political environment, help fully-fund all of our 50-60 competitive challenges to Republican held seats." Rep. Adam Schiff (D-CA) is also thanked for his $160K although bowers writes: "It isn't the entire amount we were looking for, but it is still good."

On the right, Erick Erickson at RedState calls out unchallenged GOPers to spread their wealth around including: Reps. Henry Bonilla (R-TX), Don Young (R-AK), and Joe Barton (R-TX).

BLOGGERS VS. BELTWAY II: The Idea Man

Claiming no one called right-wing bloggers "unscrupulous" when "when they did this to John Kerry in 2004" MyDD's Chris Bowers moved forward with his "Google Bomb" plan 10/24. Bowers posts his list of 70 targeted GOP candidates and links to a "Google Bomb The Elections: Source Code" page that fellow netrooters can "copy and paste the code from the diary" to their own blogs. Bowers then asks: "When you discuss any of these races in the future, please, use the same embedded hyperlink when reprinting the Republican's name." Bowers argues "[e]very campaign should be engaged in search engine optimization on their own" and he directs them to the New Politics Institute "new tools" campaign which includes an article on using search engines.

Looking at Bowers' Google Bomb and Use It Or Lose It campaigns, TPM Cafe's Stirling Newberry call Bowers an "idea guy" that ought to be "a candidate for working in, or advising, the next Democratic Majority."

KERRY: How Not to Make Friends And Influence People In The Blogosphere

Sen. John Kerry (D-MA) is under lefty blogger fire for spokesman David Wade's comment that: "Cowards can hide behind anonymous Web sites but Democrats out in the country, party leaders and real net-roots activists know how hard John Kerry has fought to win these elections." DailyKos' founder Markos Moulitsas acknowledges that Wade was referring to the anonymous HeyJohn.org website, and not the founder of the campaign, MyDD's Chris Bowers but still takes Wade's words as an "insult" to the netroots community.

Also noticing the flair up TAPPED's Ezra Klein comments: "Raise your hand if you think it's good 2008 strategy for Kerry's spokesperson to call members of the netroots "cowards" for demanding that Kerry donate some of the $15 million they gave him to win in 2004 towards winning in 2006. Fail them once, shame on you. Fail them twice..." Firedoglakes's TRex adds: "John Kerry doesn't care about Democrats. John Kerry just cares about John Kerry. And that's just wrong!"

LANDSCAPE: GOP vs. The Computer

MyDD's Chris Bowers has "acquired" internal GOP numbers from the NRCC and NRSC and reports: "It looks like right now, they expect to lose about four Senate seats and about 21 House seats." Meanwhile, Ezra Klein links to a paper by based on "statistical analysis of historical" from past generic vote poll data that concludes: "Based on current generic ballot polls, we forecast an expected Democratic gain of 32 seats with Democratic control (a gain of 18 seats or more) a near certainty." Klein adds: "Meanwhile, the InTrade betting odds are putting a retention of GOP House control at 33%."

Also at MyDD, Jonathan Singer reports on the latest NRCC targeting od ID-01 and IN-03. He also notes DCCC investment in CA-11, PA-04, and MN-01. Signer concludes: "But given the fact that the NRCC is shifting funds to districts President Bush carried by more than a 2 to 1 margin just two years ago, it still puzzles me why the DCCC is not following suit by going into quirky races, perhaps ones in which the Republicans are on their heels."

LANDSCAPE II: Unlike DST, GOTV Comes Early This Year

National Review Online's Kate O'Beirne reports GOP "GOTV operation has kicked in with nightly tracking of early voting and an overall effort that insiders claim is bigger than two years ago. And the White House has aggressively hit the airwaves. Today they hosted 41 talk radio hosts and all hands were on deck. Tony Snow did 25 interviews and Dan Bartlett did 15. Josh Bolten and Karl Rove each did more than a half dozen. The impression is that conservative voters resent the MSM line that the election is in the bag for the Democrats."

Still on the right, RCP Blog's John McIntyre confides that Mason-Dixon "continues to do the best state polling" and that their data show "a 50-50 tie with Republicans retaining control" in the Senate. RedState's Leon Wolf argues the MSM is deliberately suppressing positive GOP polling news.

Trying to rally the troops, Captain's Quarters has a series of posts titled "Meet The Proposed House Leadership" with posts on Rep. John Conyers (D-MI) chairing the Judiciary Cmte. and Rep. Alcee Hastings (D-FL) possibly chairing the Int. Cmte. Kausfiles wonders why the GOP hasn't made more of Hastings impeachment as a federal judge for bribery.

AZ SEN: No Cut-And-Run From This Race

DailyKos' founder Markos Moulitsas like AZ State's 10/22 poll showing Sen. John Kyl (R) up only 47%-41% over ex-AZ Dem chair Jim Pederson (D), but doesn't like Pederson's new ad: "Instead of saying "I won't 'cut and run'", reinforcing the right-wing frame, I wish he'd talk about not being "stay the course", but whatever."

CT SEN: World's Worst Blog

Lefty bloggers are still hammering away at Sen. Joe Lieberman (I) over the $397K in "petty cash" not detailed in his latest FEC report. Firedoglake's Jane Hamsher takes on MSM coverage of the story calling the New York Times Empire Blog "the World's Worst Blog" for not investigating the matter more closely.

The unofficial Lamont Blog offers a thorough history of Team Lieberman positions on the matter, concluding: "Now, despite promising reporters [Tammy Sun] would produce records of how almost $400,000 in cash was spent and then suddenly telling reporters they couldn't look at them, and despite still being "unable to say" why the slush fund even existed in the first place, she's calling the whole thing a "kooky conspiracy theory."

MyDD's Matt Stoller is also following the story and sees double standards at work: "If a Senator put $387,000 in cash out on the streets in the final two weeks before the election ... wouldn't you think that good government groups who care about campaign finance laws and disclosure would be slightly interested? ... Yet since Lieberman revealed this on his FEC forms late last week, only the Lamont campaign has been willing to file an FEC complaint. ... Can you imagine if Bob Menendez did this in New Jersey? The good government groups would be all over it."

Stoller also offers up "spooky" video juxtaposing Nixon/Vietnam and Lieberman/Iraq clips. Stoller comments: "This race is a proxy for the 2008 campaign where we will face one or more Lieberman-McCain-like-candidates who want to whitewash the Iraq War and use extensive dirty and probably illegal tactics, all the while floating above the fray as a sincere man of integrity."

Finally Hamsher at firedoglake announces that "the Maxwell/Mosher band and Ricki Lee Jones will be going to Connecticut from November 2-4 to appear with Ned Lamont on his bus tour and perform the campaign song they did on behalf of our Blue America candidates, Have You Had Enough."

MO SEN: Suppan Is Scheduled To Pitch Tonight, By The Way

AMERICAblog uploads of video from CNN juxtaposing Michael J. Fox exhibiting symptoms/side effects of Parkinson's disease and audio of Rush Limbaugh "calling him a fake. It's disgusting." John Aravosis goes on to ask if Sen. James Talent (R) and other GOPers agree with "Limbaugh's disability-bashing."

On the right Power Line's John Hinderaker posts a video "response" to the Fox ad featuring actor John Caviezel Kansas City Royal Mike Sweeney, St. Louis Cardinal Jeff Suppan, and ex-St. Louis Ram Kurt Warner.

National Review Online's Kathryn Jean Lopez passes along a reader translation of Caviezel Aramaic line in the video: "Happened to be reading the Corner this evening in between sporadic bouts of translating Aramaic (actually Syriac, but same difference) for my grad studies. What Caviezel said was "l'bar nash b'nashak", or "the son of man with a kiss". Which isn't even a complete sentence, but whatever."

MT SEN: Kos' Has A New Favorite Magazine

DailyKos' founder Markos Moulitsas highly recommends the current edition of the Weekly Standard featuring an article on State Sen. Jon Tester (D) but does have on complaint: "The big omission in this piece is the work done by the Montana bloggers, which drove just about every bit of my coverage on this race. All successful Netroots efforts -- be they Montana, Connecticut, Virginia, or anywhere else start at home, with activists on the ground."

PA SEN: Don't Forget To Turn Out The Lights

DailyKos' founder Markos Moulitsas notes that despite spending $9 mil this cycle, Sen. Rick Santorum still "trails in the polls badly" and posts a DSCC email including: "Since national Republicans aren't airing independent ads in Pennsylvania, that means nobody will be on the air on Santorum's behalf until Santorum himself pays to go back on. So far, Santorum has yet to reserve ad time for the final two weeks of the campaign."

TN SEN: For The Record, The Blogometer Also Likes Football And Girls

Talking Points Memo's Josh Marshall is leading the coverage of the RNC's "Ford's an Uppity Negro" tv ad. Marshall writes:

If you watch the ad closely it is clear that the racist appeal -- about Harold Ford having sex with white women -- is the centerpiece, the entire point of the ad. ... What becomes clear is that the funny man on the street interview clips are padding, filler meant to make the 'Harold does white chicks' blurb appear to fit into a larger whole, just one of a number of 'man on the street' clips.

Crooks and Liars has video of RNC chair Ken Mehlman both refusing to condemn the ad despite calls for the ads removal from Ex-Chattanooga mayor Bob Corker (R) and ex-Sen. William Cohen (R), and also claiming not to hve the authority to pull the ad if he wanted to. On the later point TPM Cafe's Greg Sargent finds "Mehlman is right in the narrowest legal sense: There is supposed to be a group within committees like the RNC which decides on ad content and placement independently." But Sargent also quotes "election law expert" David Donnelly questioning Mehlman's excuse: ""If it's a disgraceful ad, and I think it is, Mehlman should take responsibility for it. He can't hide behind legalities on something as offensive as this ad. It's a very weak position for him to be hiding behind these legal distinctions. It doesn't matter if he has control over it or not. He can call it offensive."

Ford has produced a response ad that can be seen at Talking Points Memo. On the right, RCP Blog's Tom Bevan has video of Ford's response to questions about his attendance at the Playboy party in question: "I like football and I like girls and I don't have any apologies for that." Bevan also looks at how the week went for the Ford campaign under a header "When It Rains, It Pours."

Meanwhile, Andrew Sullivan and Instapundit are in day two of fighting over Instapundit vote for Corker over Ford.

VA SEN: They Must Have Left Out Felix To Save Space

Lefty bloggers are outraged over news that electronic ballots in Alexandria, Falls Church, and Charlottesville will display only "James H. 'Jim'" on ballots. Trapper John at Daily Kos writes: "I'd be calling my Board of Elections and demanding that they get off their asses and fix this problem -- either by getting their machine vendor to display Jim Webb's entire f---ing name on their worthless machine or by printing paper ballots."

Taylor Marsh also want more action: "Your candidate's full name is not on part of the ballot and your response is unhappiness? This is such an outrage it leaves me speechless. Why not just hand the election to George Allen? Another question is why the Webb campaign is going to accept it. Read the comment from Kristian Denny Todd. "We're not happy about it" doesn't cut it. Get out there and FIGHT this outrage. The election hangs in the balance. Get off your ass and DO SOMETHING.

The official AllenHQ says Dems have only themselves to blame: "Moreover, every electoral board in Virginia currently has 2 Democratic members and 1 Republican member. To be perfectly clear, that means that the Alexandria, Falls Church and Charlottesville Election Boards are all majority-Democrat."

THOUGHT OF THE DAY: Where's The Beef?

The Washington Monthly's Kevin Drum summarizes Frederick Kagan's Washington Post op-ed: "Losing in Iraq would be the worst catastrophe imaginable, and we can't allow it to happen. However, like everyone else who feels this way, I decline to suggest any plausible plan for winning." Drum then offers a new rule for Iraq punditry:

you're not allowed to pontificate about the importance of winning in Iraq unless you're also willing to make concrete suggestions about how to make that happen. More troops? Tell us how many and where they're going to come from. Help from Syria and Iran? Tell us what you think they can offer us and what you'd be willing to put on the table to get their help. Partition? Convince us that the Iraqis would be willing to peacefully accept this. Etc. If you're not willing to do any of this, then write about something else.

LEST WE FORGET: Number Four Prostitute In All Of Kazakhstan

Atrios links to Editor and Publisher video of the first four minutes of "Borat: Cultural Learnings of America for Make Benefit Glorious Nation of Kazakhstan." E and P writes: "In the leaked clip, Borat walks through his fictitious hometown in Kazakhstan, pointing to a man in a wooden cart as "the town rapist," and to another who he describes as "our town mechanic ... and abortionist."

10/24: Lamont Loss Leader?

Even if Sen. Joe Lieberman (I-CT) keeps his lead to prevail over cable exec Ned Lamont (D) 11/7, lefty bloggers will always argue that the fight, and their 8/8 primary victory, were worth it. MyDD's Chris Bowers claims Lieberman's defeat convinced the beltway that the public's anger over Iraq could be tapped for electoral victory if only Dems would stand up and make the argument. If Bowers view does become conventional wisdom, what will the progressive movement champion next?

LANDSCAPE: Rahm's New Teachers

MyDD's Chris Bowers notes "thirteen months ago, Rahm Emanuel would not even mention Iraq when asked about the Democratic agenda" and then looks at results of the latest National Journal Insider Poll:

What issue will most motivate your party's base in the midterm elections?
Democrats:
War in Iraq: 42%
President Bush: 41%
GOP scandals: 8%
Dem agenda: 1%

Bowers argues: "The reason that there is near unanimity among "Democratic insiders" that they have to oppose Bush and the war ... is because of the Connecticut Senate primary. ... Ned Lamont's victory in that primary changed the direction of the Democratic Party in this election, and not just among a few blog fanatics. ... The war and Bush are not any less popular in October of 2006, when Democrats have decided to run on Iraq, than they were in October of 2005, when Democrats thought ignoring Iraq was the best option. The difference is that the progressive movement and Democratic base taught the Democratic leadership a much-needed lesson. If Democrats win in 2006, it will be our accomplishment, and it will be Ned's accomplishment."

Elsewhere, Talking Points Memo Josh Marshall takes issue with MSM stories highlighting the lack of a Dem "positive program of their own." Marshall comments: "Seldom has Washington conventional wisdom been a more obedient handmaiden to historical illiteracy. Let's say this once and for all, after a deep breath and for the record: In US politics, in off-year elections with unpopular incumbents it is always that way. Always."

LANDSCAPE II: Not Dead Yet

RedState's Leon Wolf picks out a few items to show "the GOP is showing signs that it might not be dead after all." Wolf notes "Burns has closed the gap on Tester," "the Maryland Senate race has really tightened up," and "Tom Reynolds has regained the lead in NY-24." Wolf concludes: "I think we hold at least TN, MO and MT at the end of the day."

Ankle Biting PunditsPatrick Hynes links to USA Today/Gallup numbers showing Dems leading the generic ballot 54%-41%, which Hynes notes is a lot closer than the 23% point margin in the wake of Foley. Hynes asks: "Is a pro-Republican surge in the offing? Or a backlash against the Democrats' pre-election triumphalism? Possibly."

Over at Pollster.com, Mark Blumenthal continues his look into the value of generic ballot polls this time focusing on measuring voter enthusiasm. Blumenthal concludes: "I have expressed skepticism in the past about the ability of opinion surveys to precisely predict levels of voter turnout, but the data above certainly argue that some sort of Democratic turnout advantage is likely this year. And as with the generic vote, these measures are worth watching closely on the final round of national surveys for signs of any last minute shifts."

IRAQ: Schadenfreude-a-thon

Talking Points Memo's Josh Marshall describes Washington Post and New York Times articles on evolving WH rhetoric on Iraq from "stay the course" to "flexibility" as "a veritable northeast corridor schadenfreudethon." Marshall continues: "Flexibility? I thought it was 'stay the course' versus 'cut and run'. One or the other. Who heard of 'flexibility'? That sounds so friggin' John Kerry." DailyKos' founder Markos Moulitsas argues the GOP dug their own grave on this one: "The funniest part of the whole mess is that "stay the course" was their own framing. It's their words. It's not like the Democrats outframed the GOP on this one. They outframed themselves."

On the right, Outside the Beltway hopes voters look beyond simple slogans: "It is fair to fault the administration ... over the years for failing to anticipate foreseeable events ... It's ridiculous, however, to pretend that campaign trail rhetoric represents the total depth of their strategic thinking. ... "Stay the course" is bumper sticker shorthand for continuing to work toward accomplishing the mission for which we set out three and a half years ago, in contrast with various withdrawal plans floated by opposition leaders. It does not mean, nor has it ever meant, "continue doing exactly what we're doing right now without any change."

Back on the left, a Truthdig letter written by Army Ranger/Arizona Cardinal Pat Tillman's brother Kevin Tillman is widely linked to. AMERICAblog highlights this passage: "Somehow, the same incompetent, narcissistic, virtueless, vacuous, malicious criminals are still in charge of this country. Somehow, this is tolerated. Somehow, nobody is accountable for this." TAPPED's Spencer Ackerman eagerly awaits "the right wing" push back against the Tillmans.

Nobody is happy with the NRCC over a mailer attacking Naval Reserve Officer Chris Carney (D) for his role in tieing Saddam Hussein to al-Qaaeda before the war. National Review Online's Andy McCarthy writes: "I worked with Chris Carney at the Pentagon when I was a consultant for Deputy Secretary Wolfowitz in 2004. Chris is a patriot who has done great service to our country, at great personal sacrifice. If this really is an RNC ad, the RNC should be ashamed." TAPPED's Spencer Ackerman also points out the hypocrisy of the NRCC's piece.

BLOGGERS VS. BELTWAY: How Not To Make Friends And Influence People In The Blogosphere

Rep. Marty Meehan (D-MA) gets singled out in the New York Timesreport on MyDD's Chris Bowers efforts to get all "non-endangered" Dem incumbents to give 30% of their CoH to Dem challengers. The article claims "though Mr. Meehan has been appearing at events and vigorously campaigning for other candidates, he has no immediate intention of giving more money." DailyKos' founder Markos Moulitsas doesn't think that's enough: "We're being asked to sacrifice for our party and for the future of our nation. Sorry, but given the choice between a campaign appearance or two by Marty Meehan and $1.5 million of his war chest, guess which one will get us closer to winning the House in two weeks?"

Back at MyDD, Bowers is "enraged" that GOP House incumbents have given at least $2.3M more to GOP challengers than Dems have: " Now, Republicans have a pay-to-play system where how much you donate to the NRCC is a factor in determining seniority in Congress. However, elections also have a pay to play system, where if you don't have a majority in the House, you can't get anything done, and you can't stop Bush's agenda. Safe Republicans are giving more than safe Democrats. Call safe Democrats in your state and tell them that.

On the other side of the aisle, Captain's Quarters picks up on a Washington Timesarticle showing Senate GOPers giving far less to '06 candidates than Dem counterparts: "Apparently, these Senators understand the stakes a little better than their counterparts across the aisle, and they have put their party in position to conduct a last-minute ad blitz to lift their candidates in tight races."

BLOGGERS VS. BELTWAY II: G-Bomb Proliferation

Right Wing News pick up on MyDD's Chris Bowers Googlebomb project and argues GOPers have more to gain than Dems from such a strategy:

While I was researching articles for this Googlebomb, I noticed something interesting: most Republican candidates, for whatever reason, already had at least one negative article up on the front page of Google. On the other hand, again, for whatever reason, it was not unusual for me to go 3 or 4 pages deep into some of these Democratic candidates without finding a single, negative, article about them. So, ironically, we may have a good opportunity to make a much bigger impact than the liberal bloggers with this Googlebomb. We'll see.

CT SEN: Lamont Might Not Deserve To Win

DailyKos' founder Markos Moulitsas optimistically looks at new ARG numbers showing cable exec Ned Lamont (D) trailing Sen. Joe Lieberman (I) 49%-37%: Schlesinger is surging, which this ARG poll started picking up. And he'll get more than 8 points. He should get 15 or so. ... But let's say Schlesinger does more poorly than that, and picks up only 3 more points from Republican voters at Lieberman's expense. That would leave Lamont with the task of taking three points from Lieberman's Democratic base. And if Lamont can't do that, he doesn't deserve to win."

There was also plenty of blogger coverage of 10/23's debate in New London, CT. Many linked to video of a pre-debate pro-Lamont parade featuring the Kiss Float. The unofficial Lamont Blog helped escort "some as--ole LaRouchites" who interrupted the debate. My Left Nutmeg's Branford Boy also reports Lieberman attacked Lamont off mic saying: "You goddamned son of a bitch, how dare you accuse me of voting for the Energy Bill because I got a contribution." Branford also loved gambler Alan Schlesinger's (R) line on Lieberman's promise to serve only three terms: "He meant he wanted to serve three terms as a Democrat and three terms as a Republican."

MyDD's Matt Stoller also attended and picked up on a disconnect between's Lieberman's ads and debate performance: "In the debate, he said that the situation only started getting worse in February. Yet in the primary debate, Lieberman said that "the situation in Iraq is a lot better." ... And he fully embraced his pro-war stance, in contrast to the ads he's been running about wanting to end the war and bring the troops home. It's clear that Joe will just say anything. He's a very very bad man."

Bloggers also hammered away at Lieberman's failure to provide documentation of the $387K in petty cash spent in the week before the primary. Firedoglake's Jane Hamsher posts video of Lamont campaign manager Tom Swan explaining the importance of the issue at a press conference and Stoller writes: "This is about integrity, and Joe's willingness to say anything and do anything to win. I expect him to counterattack with some meaningless piece of confusing disclosure argument against Ned, but Ned hasn't committed a crime. Did Joe? We don't know."

Finally, both Arianna Huffington and Stoller compare Lieberman descriptions of Iraq with Richard Nixon lines about Vietnam.

MI SEN: Every Little Bit Helps

RedState's Erick Erickson beseeches readers to help Oakland Co. Sheriff Mike Bouchard raise $15K from RedState readers.

MO SEN: Sadists For Talent

Michael J. Fox's stem cell ad for state Aud. Claire McCaskill (D) stirred controversy with help from conservative talk-show host Rush Limbaugh. Crooks and Liars has audio of Rush saying: "I stated when I saw the ad, I was commenting to you about it, that he was either off the medication or he was acting. He is an actor, after all." Crooks comments: "Despicable, just despicable." The Plank's Jonathan Cohn tracks down a Dr. who explains Fox is demonstrating side effects in the commercial, and points out: "The actor could have said stem cells will lead to a Parkinson's cure, but he said merely that it gives patients hope -- which is accurate."

Righty bloggers still found the ad exploitive. Townhall's Dean Barnett: "The most distasteful aspect of the ad is the way it exploits Michael J. Fox's physical difficulties. Fox is an actor, and clearly knew what he was doing when he signed up for the spot - no victim points for him for having been manipulated by the McCaskill campaign. The ad's aim is to make us feel so bad about Fox's condition that logical debate is therefore precluded. You either agree with Fox, or you sadistically endorse his further suffering as Fox accuses Jim Talent of doing."

Right Wing News ads: "the amount of misinformation of embryonic stem cells out there is absolutely staggering. Basically, you have desperate people like Fox and Nancy Reagan out there pushing embryonic stem cells because they've been told that it may be a miracle cure for Alzheimer's and Parkinson's disease. But, the hard, cold reality is that embryonic stem cells have never cured anything in a human and it's entirely possible that they never will."

TN SEN: Apparently, Ford's From TN

Atrios caught a clip of the Rep. Harold Ford Jr. (D-09)/ex=Chattanooga mayor Bob Corker (R) debate and noticed: "Ford sure has amped up his Tenn. accent compared to how he's sounded in the past."

And on the right TN's View From The Porch caught Ford at a gun range in TN, but was not impressed: "He didn't score a lot of points with the range staff, who complained afterwards that he seemed to be distracted and in a hurry during the mandatory safety briefing. ... Come to think about it, he didn't ask me for mine, either."

VA SEN: George Allen, Blogger

Sen. George Allen (R) blogs at RedState claiming: "Congress doesn't have a revenue problem. It has a spending problem." Before touting his support for a "Taxpayers' Bill of Rights" Allen celebrates the blogosphere as "a powerful new branch of the media - burst onto the scene and swiftly became an integral part of our American laboratory of ideas."

Many righties also picked up on the Washington Timesstory down playing ex-Navy Sec. James Webb's role in fighting for the inclusion an African-American soldier in the Vietnam memorial statue. Power Line, Captain's Quarters, and AllenHQ all comment.

On the left DailyKos' founder Markos Moulitsas looks at 10/23's Mason-Dixon poll showing ex-Navy Sec. James Webb (D) trailing Sen. George Allen (R) 47%-43% and reaches back to 2005 for some good Webb news: "Just days before the election, M-D's last poll of the race had Kaine up 45-44. Then, the ground game went into operation, with the Dems facing off against the RNC's vaunted 72-hour program. The final result? Kaine won 52-46. Virginia Dems aren't slouches, and will give Webb a fighting chance so long as he keeps this race close."

Not Larry Sabato posts an "October Surprise" to sink Allen's campaign, claiming: "Allen's Property Tax Assessment in January $589,000; Allen's Property Sold in May (4 months later) for 1.1 MILLION; Sold to Campaign Contributor." The A-Team isn't impressed: "George Allen sold property for almost double its assessed value. Shocking!!! ... In less than 5 years, my home has more than doubled in price. In fact, given that we are reassessed every year, this past year alone saw an increase in assessed value of nearly $100K."

THOUGHT OF THE DAY: Oops

Matthew Yglesisas looks at the unintended consequences of the recording industry pushed Digital Millennium Copyright Act and and the success of the iPod:

[I]f you went out and bought an iPod, and then you wanted to legally acquire some music for it, the only place you could turn was the iTunes Music Store. And, once you'd built up a library of songs purchased through the iTunes Music Store, the only place you can play the songs is . . . on an iPod. So if when your iPod's battery dies, you think to yourself "f--k this, I'm going to buy a different company's player," well, doing that will require you to re-buy all your music. So you buy another iPod, and you buy more music and you're further and further locked-in. Even better, the Digital Millennium Copyright Act makes it illegal for a rival firm to construct a player capable of playing legally owned iTunes Music Store files. This is a great deal for Apple who, in virtue of being first, gets to entrench its advantage deeper-and-deeper but it's not very smart legislation.

Even weirder, using Digital Rights Management to produce this sort of circular lock-in wasn't Apple's initial plan for the music store. Instead, they wound up incorporating the DRM features that are key to their business model at the insistence of the record companies, who haven't actually accomplished anything for themselves (it's still very easy to illegally download MP3 files) while accidentally creating a new music industry juggernaut.

LEST WE FORGET: Now We Get It!

Do you often find marginally humorous items 10 times funnier after they have been matter of factly explained to you? Then you'll love Joe Mathlete Explains Today's Marmaduke in 500 words or less. Recent entries include:

• Marmaduke likes to let the neighborhood kids use his indoor pool. It is possible that Marmaduke's doghouse defies the laws of physics and has a larger interior than exterior, or has a trap door that leads to a large underground cavern/living space, but most likely Marmaduke just has a teeny tiny pool and the neighborhood kids have low thresholds for entertainment.
• Marmaduke is interrogated by Owner-Man about an inflammatory dog-authored diatribe that was published in that day's newspaper, as if he is the only dog in town who would write a letter to the editor. Marmaduke resents the implication, so he ignores the question and keeps napping in Owner-Man's chair.
• Marmaduke creator Brad Anderson is proving he is still relevant in the 21st century by tempering his usual blend of phantom humor and obtuse logic with a reference to a hit television program of which he possesses a vague awareness.
• Marmaduke is playing see-saw with some area children. As he is humongous, he is kicking the living shit out of them; unless they find a really fat kid for their team, Marmaduke is going to get another shutout.

10/23: The Internet's Last Unregulated Cycle?

MyDD's Chris Bowers has been a brilliant idea factory for the netroots this cycle. His latest project seeks to game Google's known link ranking system to place the most unflattering GOP-related articles at the top of the search engine's results whenever a targeted GOP member is searched. So far, Congress and the FEC have taken a pass on regulating political speech on the internet. If projects such as this one (which while ingenious does seek to game the system to influence lower information voters) proliferate, how much longer before internet speech goes the way of broadcast speech?

BLOGGERS VS. BELTWAY: The G-Bomb

Noting studies showing "the number one way that voters use the Internet for political action is to search for information on candidates" MyDD's Chris Bowers is planning to utilize "widespread embedded hyperlinks" and Google Adwords to "Google Bomb[] The Election." Bowers wants to ensure that Google searches, of the names of 70 targeted GOPers, will produce highly placed negative articles from "non-partisan media source[s]" on each candidate. The project has three steps:

• Step One: ... I will compile a list of seventy articles, one for each targeted race. Every article will focus on a different Republican candidate, and will be written by as generally trusted a news source as possible. It will also present as unflattering a view on the Republican candidate as possible.
• Step Two: Once the database is complete, BlogPac will purchase Google Adwords that will place each negative article on the most common searches for each Republican candidate. Simultaneously, I will produce an article on MyDD that embeds that negative article into a hyperlink that names the Republican candidate. I will then send a copy of that post out to as many bloggers as possible, who can also place the post on their blogs. One posting of this article will be enough.
• Step Three: All further discussion of the Republican candidates in question on all participating blogs should include an embedded hyperlink that will increase the Google search rank of the article on the given candidate.

Bowers summarizes: "The result of this should be that the most damning, non-partisan article written on every key Republican candidate for house and Senate will appear both high on every Google search for that candidate, and automatically as an advertisement on every search for that candidate. BlogPac will cover the costs. The netroots will supply the research."

On the right Outside the Beltway adds to Bowers plan: "Step Four: Sharks with lay-zers on their foreheads." OTB also comments: "This will be an interesting test of the theory that search king Google's leftist owners are using their market leading power to intentionally skew search results and news content. Given that this plan to game the system has been publicly announced on a very prominent website (Google PageRank 8) and is being widely publicized elsewhere, it should be a simple task for Google to not only thwart this plan but to ban the participants from their metrics."

BLOGGERS VS. BELTWAY: Every Donation You Make, They'll Be Watching You

MyDD's Chris Bowers new Google Bomb project is not interfering with his earlier "Use It Or Lose It" campaign to encourage Dem incumbents not facing a GOPer to donate 30% of their CoH to Dem challengers or committees. On 10/21 Bowers welcomed MoveOn.org's support to the project and advised readers to utilize another line of attack when calling incumbent Dem offices:

In many cases, Democrats Representatives are saving up their warchests in order to run for Senate or other higher office. ... A good message for callers to convey to the Massachusetts delegation is that the activist community is going to remember who was there for the party when the next Senate vacancy comes.

DEM '08 FIELD: The Lamont Litmus Test

At The Huffington Post, Arianna Huffington looks at a Hartford Courantarticle on GOP financial support for Sen. Joe Lieberman (I) and asks: "[W]hat are the Democratic power players doing for Lamont?" Huffington continues: "Claiming scheduling conflicts to justify why they can't campaign for the Democratic nominee. Barack Obama has been on a book tour around the country, but has carefully skipped Connecticut. And Hillary Clinton has also skipped Connecticut, instead sending a $5,000 donation and holding a quiet fundraiser for Lamont on the Upper East Side tonight."

Huffington concludes: "The field for the Democratic presidential nomination is already crowded. ... But why wait until '08? How about standing for something now, when it counts, and stepping up to the plate for Ned Lamont? Those who don't should pay a price down the line. The Lamont litmus test is one we should definitely get behind."

OBAMA: The Lamont Litmus Test In Action

MyDD's Matt Stoller argues a WH '08 run for Sen. Barack Obama (D-IL) "would be good for him, good for the party, and good for the country." Stoller hopes a run would force Obama to make tough decisions: "You know, like the choice he made to not go to Connecticut to campaign for Ned Lamont, which we will remember as the unprincipled betrayal of the Democratic Party that it is." Stoller looks forward to engaging Obama "in a debate over policies and ideas" that will "take him down off a pedestal."

Stoller concludes: "Sooner or later, he's going to run smackdab into another brand, say, an Eliot Spitzer, who is good at fighting for his principles. And in that choice, when Obama has to face his first round of negative ads, and his first real negative campaign on a state or national level, does he really want to face the charge that he's a pretty face and an empty suit?"

The Washington Note's Steve Clemons argues Obama is actually running for VP and looks forward to a Sen. Hillary Clinton (D-NY)/Obama ticket.

ROMNEY: No It's Not Russia, Just The People's Republic Of Boston

Under the header "Romney On Verge of Implosion" MI Coolernotes "[t]here have been three consecutive front page stories in the Boston Globe regarding Mormon leadership using the church to assist Romney's campaign. ... Maybe most damaging is that the discussion is outside the realm of perceived bigotry and instead on the basis of IRS violations. ... This is a problem for Mitt Romney that he needs to solve quickly in order to remain a top potential candidate for President."

Ankle Biting Pundits contributor and Sen. John McCain (R-AZ) aide Patrick Hynes attacks the Globe for demanding "12 Apostles" member Jeffrey R. Holland "stop helping" Romney. Hynes responds:

As Ty Webb once said to Danny Noonan, "No, this isn't Russia, Danny This isn't Russia, is it?" The 12 Apostles and the Prophet and President of the Mormon Church have every right in the world to take part in the political process and help Mitt Romney if they do it on their own time and without the aid of church resources. What world do the editors of the Globe live in?

LANDSCAPE: Ride The Wave

At Pollster.com Dem pollster Mark Blumenthal examines the predictive value of the generic congressional ballot and quotes fellow Dem. Mark Mellman on the uncertainty this fall:

There's a big anti-Republican wave out there. But that wave will crash up against a very stable political structure, so we won't be sure of the exact scope of Democratic gains until election night. We really don't yet know which is ultimately more important -- the size of the wave or the stability of the structure.

Blumenthal concludes: "Given all this imprecision, why pay attention to the national generic ballot at all? Because comparable national surveys are conducted more often, with larger sample sizes and more rigorous methodologies than many of the surveys we are seeing at the district level. If a last minute change occurs in the national political environment ("the size of the wave") the national surveys will show it first."

In the bellwether KY-03, Blue Grass Report wonders if KDP chairman Jerry Lundergan will allow visiting Pres. Clinton to help push the only Dem "currently ahead in public polls" ex-publisher John Yarmuth (D) over Rep. Ann Northup (R) or "will he try to make the event about himself and his friends?"

Meanwhile, MyDD's Jerome Armstrong compliments the DCCC's Jesse Lee on their "great website" separating Dem challengers into three waves and an "Emerging Races" class for a total of 71 candidates. Armstrong: "That's impressive compared with the last few cycles, we'll have to see how that works out."

Finally, Daily Kos' DemFromCT argues that no matter how fired up the GOP base is, the party's unpopularity with the rest of the country will be their undoing: "There aren't enough evangelicals and conservatives to make up for the missing middle no matter how much money the Republicans pour into the 72 hour project, assuming that Dems come out and vote. And even a small percentage of Rs that don't show will be magnified by the loss of the middle."

LANDSCAPE II: On Diminishing Returns

MyDD's Jonathan Singer is sympathetic to DCCC arguments against moving funds away from top tier races, but still argues the "law of diminishing returns applies to politics, just as it does to economics" and writes: "The next $50,000 or even $500,000 in a campaign that has already seen several million dollars in expenditures by both sides cannot possibly go as far as $50,000 or $500,000 going to a race that that is not, to this point, as engaged."

Singer also looks at Newsweek's new poll on the popularity of Dem "First 100 Hours" agenda and argues that while "I don't think that the Democrats need to have a "Contract with America" ... the Democratic leadership is going to have to do a significantly better job at getting the word out."

LANDSCAPE III: Alcee Your Social Security To Illegals, And Raise You One Intelligence Committee Sleazebag

Talking Points Memo's Josh Marshall picks up on the GOP's latest issue: "You don't have to watch the GOP ads around the country too closely to see what their focus group research and polling is telling them is their only winning issue: Mexicans. ... All over the country -- Democratic candidate X wants to raise your taxes to give Social Security to illegals."

On the right, Outside the Beltway picks up on Washington Postreports that the CBC will pressure a Speaker Nancy Pelosi (D-CA) to place impeached federal judge Rep. Alcee Hastings (D-FL) as head of the int. cmt. and comments:

The Hastings issue is another thing altogether and I'm surprised the Republicans haven't tried to make more hay out of it. For reasons laid out at length in the article, Pelosi is under enormous pressure from the CBC to elevate Hasting. Yet the idea of putting this sleazebag in a position where he would be privy to the most sensitive national security secrets is untenable.

CT SEN: Not So Petty Cash

Lefty bloggers promoted cable exec. Ned Lamont (D) charges Sen. Joe Lieberman (I) misused $387K in cash disbursements before the 8/8 primary. MyDD's Matt Stoller asks: "Was Lieberman buying votes with the money, using the cash as 'street money'?" The unofficial Lamont Blog notes Lieberman's explanation that the "slush fund was used to pay salaries, food, lodging, and transportation of "young kids" doing paid canvassing" and responds: "But "Lodging for Volunteers," "Car Rental for Canvassers," "Food for Staff," a $1,700+ tab for "Food and Beverage" for Tom Lindenfeld (their field guy), multiple payments to temp and staffing agencies, multiple gas receipts for $20 and $30 each, multiple van and bus and car rentals (ground transportation alone accounts for at least $90,000 of their itemized expenses), multiple airfares, and even a $12.99 car wash are all itemized on their FEC report."

After Team Lieberman claimed his lawyers assured the campaign the expenditures complied with campaign finance law, Stoller asks: "Who's the lawyer for Lieberman, because I don't believe that any competent lawyer would say anything of the sort?"

Also plenty of video from CT including Lieberman supporters trying to break up the filming of Lamont's latest ad, Lieberman's latest ad promising to bring home the troops, and DNC chair Howard Deanstumping for Lamont.

MO SEN: Foxy Lady

Firedoglake's Jane Hamsher posts video of Aud. Claire McCaskill's new ad featuring Michael J. Fox and comments: "I'm embarrassed for the nation that a commercial like this is even necessary, and that there are large numbers of ignorant, low-information nutballs out there to whom the truth of this matter in the 21st century isn't patently obvious."

TN SEN: TN Gone Wild

RedState's Erick Erickson writes on Rep. Harold Ford (D-09): "grew up in Washington, D.C., went to school in Pennsylvania, then went to law school in Michigan. He failed the bar exam, got elected to Congress, and headed back to his home in Washington hoping to score with the chicks. It's not exactly a secret that Ford was a swinging bachelor on Capitol Hill -- we're all waiting for the stories of Ford and interns." Erickson then posts two new ex-Chattanooga Mayor Bob Corker (R) ads including one featuring a woman gushing "I met Harold at the Playboy Party." From the left TN Guerilla Women writes: "Yeah, right. With her looks she couldn't get on a Girls Gone Wild video."

Elsewhere, Andrew Sullivan calls Instapundit's Dem-sexual-McCarthyism-Corker-vote explanation "absurd bordering on unhinged." Also Townhall's Mary Katharine Ham posts local coverage of Ford's parking lot confrontation with Corker.

VA SEN: Go Panthers!

Raising Kaine has video of ex-Navy Sec. James Webb at 10/21'a VA-State/VA-Union football game, of a YouTube creation criticizing Sen. George Allen (R) as a rubberstamp, and video of Generation Webb members talking about their Webb support.

THOUGHT OF THE DAY: Pres. Bush Loves Flags

AMERICAblog's John Aravosis looks at stills from Pres. Bush's This Week interview showing a rainbow colored flag over Bush's right shoulder and writes: "[E]verything this White House does is scripted. There is simply no way that Bush did this interview without his people intentionally choosing to have a rainbow flag right behind his head, framing the entire shot. ... Normally I'd say this is just a hysterical coincidence. But after the White House defending Secretary of State Condi Rice's description of a gay couple as married last week ... I'm smelling a subliminal rat here. ... Then again, it's not like the Bush administration, including the White House, isn't full of gays - so perhaps the pink mafia strikes again."

LEST WE FORGET: Kinky Congressman Kitsch

Talking Points Memo's Josh Marshall argues "You haven't truly made a pop cultural impact until you start showing up on eBay." At ebay available Foley Scandal items available include:

• Authentic birthday card from Mark Foley
• Congressman MARK FOLEY Signed 1996 Dole/Kemp Hat AUTH
• Sex Scandal Mark Foley for Congress Campaign Button

Blogometer Extra

House Race Update

CA 47: Takes Nguyen To Know Nguyen

  TChris at TalkLeft asks the question, "Why did GOP candidate Tan Nguyen, running ... against Rep. Loretta Sanchez, pony up money for a list of Democratic voters?"  TChris self-responds:

  One possibility: to discourage foreign-born Democrats from voting by advising them in a letter that it's illegal for immigrants to vote.  That bit of advice is a lie, of course -- immigrants who are citizens have the same voting rights as Americans who are citizens by birth -- but Nguyen refuses to take responsibility for the letter.  He blames his office manager while disavowing any knowledge of the use to which the mailing list was put.

  Finger pointing and playing the blame game is a Republican way of life, but in this instance, not a very effective one.

  TChris goes on to quote a snippet from a news article:

  In an interview today, Orange County GOP Chairman Scott Baugh said representatives of the Huntington Beach mail house that produced the letter told him that Nguyen was directly involved with the letter, calling and asking that it be sent out as soon as possible.

  The GOP on Thursday asked Nguyen to step down as its candidate for the 47th district race.  No word yet on whether Nguyen will do that.

MN 05: We CAIR A Lot

  Scott continues Power Line's crusade, as it were, to expose for all the world to see that Dem candidate Keith Ellison is a shill for Muslim interlopers, and the Minneapolis Star Tribune simply can't hack it as a reputable newspaper.  Having earlier tied Ellison to the Nation of Islam, now Power Line scrutinizes the relationship between Ellison and the controversial Council on American-Islamic Relations (CAIR).  "Even such stalwart Democrats as Senators Dick Durbin and Charles Schumer," Scott writes, "have come to recognize CAIR's 'association with groups that are suspect,' its 'ties to terrorism' and its 'intimate links with Hamas.'

  "[C]onvictions of CAIR officials and employees for terror-related activities have made it increasingly difficult for CAIR to continue its charade with the same high level of success," Scott continues.  "No such difficulty confronts CAIR at the ... Tribune, which has proved itself a willing dupe."  He then references an op-ed column at the paper written by CAIR executive director Nihad Awad and chairman of the board Parvez Ahmed.  One part of the column particularly attracted Scott's attention.  Quote:

  There has been much sound and fury in certain circles about the American Muslim community's support for Keith Ellison and his campaign to represent Minnesota's Fifth Congressional District. ... A handful of right-wing bloggers, agenda-driven commentators and political operatives have used scurrilous smear tactics in an attempt to derail his campaign and to marginalize American Muslim voters.  These smears and distortions send an un-American message of intolerance and bigotry. ... We are proud of our personal donations to Ellison's campaign.  He has proven himself to be an effective legislator and his commitment to social justice is worthy of admiration.  We believe his election will send a powerful message to the world about America's commitment to religious inclusion and tolerance.

  Keith then proceeds to list some of Awad's rhetoric and CAIR's dubious achievements, as well as Ahmed's ties to a convicted terrorist.  He concludes, "Awad's and Ahmed's utterly shameless column supporting Ellison should at least serve the purpose of putting Ellison's prospective congressional colleagues on notice of the rogue they are about to receive into their ranks."

  Captain Ed at the Quarters also takes offense to the op-ed's characterizations, saying that the Tribune "has done nothing to cover Ellison's connections" and "runs an op-ed piece ... that basically calls us racists."  Not one to turn the other cheek, the good Cap'n says bluntly that "CAIR serves as an apologist and fundraiser for terrorists; in fact, it was founded for that purpose. ... Their activity on behalf of a Congressional candidate, especially one who sneaks off to speak at a secret session of their organization, has rightly caused people to scrutinize both the candidate and the organization more closely, and screeching 'racism' is just another ploy for these radicals to hide themselves, this time behind a shield of political correctness."

NH 02: Bass Kicking

  DavidNYC at Swing State Project gets a laugh out of a mail ad from the campaign of Dem candidate Paul Hodes, challenging GOP incumbent Charlie Bass.  The ad features a sport fish and, in true Road Runner-Wile E. Coyote fashion, the faux-Latin nomenclature of Followis Bushis Bassius above it, with a further attempt at yuks beneath it, painting Bass as a Bush sycophant.

  Commenter DavidG isn't all that impressed, remarking, "Eh.  Trying to be too cute.  The Latin will go over the heads of most."

NY 19: Runaround Sue

  Rocker-cum-activist-cum-Dem-House-hopeful John Hall had the recent pleasure of debating an empty chair, since GOP incumbent Sue Kelly is refusing to go toe-to-toe with him. 

  Markos Moulitsas at Daily Kos has a vid with "the explanation why our guy Hall is debating an empty chair, replete with video of ... Kelly running away from cameras asking her why she won't debate Hall."

  Commenter KingOneEye quips, "I can't help thinking that the intellectual level of the debate increased significantly when the chair was assigned to stand in for Kelly."

Bloggers Vs. Beltway

Moyers' Lawyers Try Shakin' Akin

  Jimmy Akin had the temerity to quote another guy's fudgery about news commentator Bill Moyers on his blog, and now finds himself in the middle of a legal tiff that might yield an amused smile or two among readers.

  In a post from Oct. 13, Akins wrote the following:

  Bill Moyers ... has long been regarded as one of the worst journalistic shills for the Democratic Party, pretending neutrality but in reality viciously slanting his coverage in favor of liberal causes. ... I was interested, therefore, when E. Calvin Beisner of the Interfaith Stewardship Alliance told me that he would be on a recent episode of Moyers' program "Moyers on America" that was devoted to environmentalism and titled "Is God Green?"

  I was not surprised that he tried to smear Cal by selectively disclosing facts and selectively editing the interview he did with him.  That's par for the course with the MSM.  What did surprise me was just how open Moyers was about his use of his journalism as a political tool to benefit liberal causes."

  Akin then posted an excerpt from a recent ISA newsletter, that opened up a can of legal eagles, as Akin would soon find:

  The bias of Moyers’s program is not surprising.  He forthrightly told me before our interviews that he, as a liberal Democrat, hoped to use this program to divide the evangelical vote and return control of Congress to the Democrats in November’s elections.  The timing of the program’s release, therefore, is not surprising.

  It was Beisner's assertion, and Akins posting of same, that triggered a letter from Moyer's legal team, along with a vigorous denail from Moyers himself that he ever made the statements attributed to him by Beisner.  The lawyer writes that "we have demanded on behalf of Mr. Moyers a retraction from the [ISA] stating clearly and without qualification that Dr. Beisner's statement was erroneous," etc., and indicated that by re-posting Beisner's words, Akin had also defamed Moyers.  The letter demanded that Akin publish Moyer's response along with Beisner's retraction.

  Though lacking the as-yet unavailable retraction, Akin happily obliges with the rest, publishing not only Moyer's response and the lawyer's letter, but also a letter from his own lawyer, who finds it "highly unlikely that you can sustain a case against my client for defamation," and says furthermore, "if you choose ... to proceed with a civil action against our client, notwithstanding his willingness to comply with Mr. Moyers's demands, please understand that this firm will vigorously defend Mr. Akin's rights and good name."

[Mike Sheehan]

Blogometer Extra

Bloggers Vs Mainstream

Righteous Indignatius

  David Ignatius writes a column at The Washington Post describing a "larger, overarching battle" this election season between "two visions of America: testing whether it's a country defined by its political center or one defined by its political extremes."  His basis for this is The Way to Win, a new book by reporters Mark Halperin and John F. Harris, which perceives "two basic strategic ideas at work in today's politics: the 'synthesizer' approach of former president Bill Clinton, and the 'clarifier' tactics of President Bush and ... Karl Rove."  The Clinton approach is "the politics of the center," while the Bush approach is "the politics of the base."

  Ignatius takes pains to identify himself, as he often does, with the "old school" that "instinctively prefer[s] a centrist style of civilized debate"; he then--and this is where, predictably, he triggers another fierce reaction from certain poliblogs--knocks the "shrill voices of the New Media," lumping together talk-radio hosts, bloggers and other "partisan megaphones," who, admittedly, "might eventually put us out of business."  Ignatius goes on to describe what he believes to be a growing centrist trend among incumbents and candidates of both parties.  But, he ultimately ponders, "if the Democrats win next month, will they be heirs of Clinton's vision of politics or of Rove's?  Are we heading for unity or even sharper division?"

  Let's back up a minute here, says Susie at Suburban Guerilla.  "I should face up to the distasteful task of responding to insidious bullshit," i.e., Ignatius' aforementioned blogger rip.

bull[stuff]quote>  I hardly know where to begin, what with someone like Mark Halperin (of ABC’s horrible “The Note”) having the audacity to lecture us on civility and politeness. ... Let’s look at the compelling core fact that seems to elude the Beltway Bobbleheads, and it’s this: This is not a game.  Really.  The actions of the Bush administration, their congressional enablers and the media’s blushing handmaidens have real consequences, for real people.

  How do they manage to treat the Iraq war like a chess game, played with cheap plastic pieces instead of real men and women?  How do they oh-so-politely ignore the stench of 600,000 Iraqi dead as if it were of no more concern than an ill-timed fart at a dinner party?  How do they downplay the breathtaking orgy of rape and pillage that is the White House, this war and the members of the GOP-controlled Congress?  How do they reduce our finally awakened and greatly concerned electorate to annoyingly “shrill” voices?

  And how dare these Washington media fluffers insist, from the protection of their bubble, that they have the moral authority to tell us civility should prevail when their polite indifference brought us to the point where our nation is in utter crisis?

  mcjoan at Daily Kos lets it rip, too:

  The reason, David Ignatius, you are eventually going to be put out of business is because you forgot your business.  You rival the GOP Rubber Stamp Congress in looking the other way when it comes to the disaster this administration has wrought.  Cheney's energy policy, drafted by big oil?  Well, how important could that be.  Lying about estimates for the cost of the prescription drug plan?  Numbers are confusing.  800 signing statements undoing the will of Congress?  Um, signing statements?  Lying to the nation and to the international community to take this country into a misguided, expensive, poorly planned and even more poorly executed war?  ... That's not my beat.

  The media's failure, YOUR failure David Ignatius, to demand any accountability at all for this president and for the Congress that has propped him up, is the seed you planted for your own destruction.  Your failure to recognize and point out the radical right that has taken over the Republican party is not the fault of us great unwashed liberal bloggers, the legions of the shrill.  Your failure is all yours.  What you wrought by pushing the agenda of the Clinton haters and the Gore detractors was this unmitigated catastrophe known as the Bush administration.

  Ezra Klein has a turn too, from a different tack, at The American Prospect's TAPPED:

[I]t's time to stop pretending that the death of civilized debate doesn't have suspects.  The media may yearn for civilized debate of another age, but it was Ignatius's employers at The Post who leapt on every blue dress, trumped up land deal, and sexual titillation The American Spectator would "report."  If folks want to talk health care, PAYGO, and unipolarity till the cows come home, I'm sure Democrats would happily oblige.  But I don't think they're going to enter the knife fight unarmed again anytime soon.  If Ignatius is detecting a return of civilization to the political discourse, maybe it's because Republicans have been so silenced by their own failures and scandals that only Democrats are being heard.  And when they don't have to shreik to be heard by Mr. Ignatius and his colleagues, it sounds pretty good.

  Blue Crab Boulevard, on the other hand, dismisses the book's theme.  "I don't actually agree with Halperin and Harris' interpretation all that much.  I think they see Clinton in a better light than he deserves and Bush in a worse one."

  "That aside," he wraps, "I don't think there really can be much of a question of how the Democrats are, in general, running this campaign.  They have made a concerted effort, admitted openly, to suppress the conservative vote and split the Republican coalition.  Halperin and Harris meant their book to be a guide for the 2008 elections.  I think it is pretty obvious which way the Democrats plan to head."

House Race Update

FL 16: Negroaaaan

  Joe Negron, Mark Foley's replacement as GOP candidate for the 16th, lost an "obvious" ruling when a judge asserted that putting up signs inside polling places saying that a vote for Foley is a vote for Negron is "electioneering prohibited by law."  While GOPers gnash their teeth, Markos Moulitsas at Daily Kos reminds readers of a situation earlier where a politician got the shaft, parties reversed.

  "But, of course, Republicans want to change the rules" when the tables are turned.  "No dice," writes Kos, "at least with this judge.  Republicans are obviously appealing the decision."

NM 01: Instant Karmadrid

  Josh Marshall at Talking Points Memo rues the nasty backlash that elements in the GOP are attempting to rouse with wild allegations of their own, such as Kenneth Blackwell's Ohio campaign hinting loudly that challenger Ted Strickland is gay.

  1st District GOP incumbent Rep. Heather Wilson took a similar swipe at Dem opponent Patricia Madrid.  "Wilson's whole site at the moment is given over to a local TV news spot about a Internet-teen sex sting that bagged a 41 year old man who thought he was meeting a fourteen year old girl in the park for sex," Marshall writes.  "The story is about how he didn't get time but probation.  Wilson says it was the fault of opponent Patricia Madrid (who is currently state Attorney General)."

  Then, lo and behold, the news breaks a day later at The Raw Story: Wilson had buried a file containing allegations "that her husband had engaged in inappropriate contact with a minor."

[Mike Sheehan]

10/20: Sorry, We Gave At The Office

The Blogometer easily reads 50-plus posts a day that include requests for readers to give money to this candidate or that cmte. Lefty bloggers in particular have proven proficient in helping raise cash for Dems, especially in races no one else thought were winnable. As the prospects of a major Dem victory begin to materialize, however, lefty bloggers now want incumbent Dems and leaders to pull their fair share. MyDD's Chris Bowers is stepping up his campaign to convince unopposed House Dems to transfer their CoH to challenger Dems while DailyKos' founder Markos Moulitsas and other top lefty bloggers are warning all Dem '08 hopefuls that they are paying attention to who has given what to whom. The bloggers do not seem to care how much unopposed Senate '08ers have given already, only how much more can they give now.

BLOGGERS VS. BELTWAY: "Let Our Money Go"

A "who's who" of major league lefty bloggers has jumped on Hotline On Callreports that "[t]op Democrats are trying to convince two potential presidential candidates with flush campaign bank accounts to part with as much as $1 million each to finance the DSCC s late October effort to pull six Senate seats from Republican control."

DailyKos' founder Markos Moulitsas castigates flush Sen Dem WH '08 hopefuls: "They can hoard that cash. That's their prerogative. But we shouldn't forget when they ask us to sacrifice for their efforts in 2008. Anyone unwilling to give 'till it hurts to win back Congress and move America forward this year shouldn't get much respect when they ask us to help them out." Josh Marshall passes on a thought from RM at Talking Points Memo: "I am disabled by a spinal injury and unable to work, yet out of my meager funds I have scraped up $20 and $25 amounts to send to various campaigns around the country ... So I am deeply pained by Democratic fat cats that just can't bear to part with any of their millions of dollars, thank you, or those who only make token payments."

Sens. John Kerry (D-MA) and Evan Bayh (D-IN) are the candidates mentioned in On Call's item. On Bayh Atrios writes: "$100K? That's chump change Mr. Bayh. What's that I see? Oh yes, those presidential prospects receeding faster than my hairline..." Markos adds: "$100K from Bayh? Ridiculous and shameful."

Opinion on Kerry was not as unanimous. AMERICAblog links to Hey John! who writes:

In 2004, over 171,154 Americans donated $328,479,245 and countless hours of time to help John Kerry get elected President. Now, two years later, Democrats have a real opportunity to regain a majority in both chambers of Congress. John Kerry? He's still hanging on to $8,352,685 of our money, while Democratic candidates in competitive districts are short on funds, and the DNC, DCCC, and DSCC are out of money. Tell John Kerry to "let our money go" and help take back Congress."

Marshall is sympathetic to Team Kerry claims that Kerry has "already done a ton" but still concludes: "To me at least this isn't about what's come before. It's about right now. More money is needed. Now. And those who are sitting on a lot of it should give more, regardless of what they've done to this point."

MyDD's Jerome Armstrong comes out against the whole effort...kind of:

The DSCC-Orchestrated calling out of John Kerry for not having done enough to help candidates in 2006 is hogwash. I kept a pretty good watch of everything the '08 wannabees had done to help '06 candidates, and overall, the gap between the top-tier of Mark Warner and John Kerry, vs any of the others, was significant. ... To nit-pick, why not call out John Edwards or Russ Fiengold for the fact that that neither personally raised much money to be in a position to make a considerable donation?

Armstrong goes on to question why Kos is so eager to give millions to "lameass DC media consultants" at the DSCC and concludes: "If you still want to call out the '08 wannabees, make it for where the money is most needed-- at the numbered 25-100 House seats, not in the committees."

Taylor Marsh offers a much more strident defense of Kerry including: "As for whatever money he might or might not have in his own coffers, I think the fundraising above shows his willingness to work for the party, his colleagues and Democratic hopefuls. I also have to bluntly ask why anyone should be made to drain his or her political coffers dry when they're working balls to the walls day in and day out in a given election cycle. Is the man supposed to give every last dime and be left with nothing going forward?"

Sen. Hillary Clinton (D-NY) also did not escape blogger scrutiny on the question

• Atrios: "It's ridiculous that Clinton has so much money and it's a major way our campaign dollars are poorly allocated ... People aren't giving her money because they think she needs it to win her election, they're giving it to her to spend a little time with her and to support brand Hillary. Still, what's more important? Taking Congress or sitting on piles of campaign cash that you don't really need.
• Kos: "While it's good that Hillary has given $2.5 million, she can afford more. 10 percent of her money raised isn't anything to celebrate."

BLOGGERS VS. BELTWAY II: Leaving No Dem Unturned

"After talking with a wide number of people who are interested in helping" MyDD's Chris Bowers is pursuing his campaign to pressure unopposed House Dems to transfer their CoH to Dem challengers. Bowers asks readers to pick a rep from this list and post contact info, CoH, and "the amount of money they have given to other Democrats and to Democratic committees this cycle."

Daily Kos diarist withthelidoff supports the project and identifies even more potential easy money: "But it's not just the 45 Dems who have no Republican opponent who are hoarding the dollars. On the flip are the 64 House Democrats ... who are facing a Republican who has raised under $10,000 in this election cycle a ... Between them, they're sitting on nearly $33 million. Using the same measure as Chris- Rahm's 58 Republican held districts- this money would add up to 567,414.03 for each campaign. Add that to the 453,248.59 that would come from passing around money from the 45 unopposed Democrats and that's 1,020,662.62 per campaign."

Kos adds: "Democrats are expecting donors and activist to give 'till it hurts while they sit in non-competitive races with massive war chests. They need to sacrifice as well. Just half of this idle money would mean $500K for each of the DCCC's targeted 58 races."

LANDSCAPE I: The Best Offense Is ...

TPM Cafe's Greg Sargent notes the "NRCC spent an astounding $39.1 million in just the last seven weeks in 59 races across the country" and adds "more than 90 percent of the money -- $36.5 million -- went to 47 districts where the GOP is playing defense."

Daily Kos diarist fmrgop lists the races the DCCC spent $12 mil. in and DailyKos' founder Markos Moulitsas adds: "Only four of those races are defensive ones."

LANDSCAPE II: Heck Of A Job Liddy!

DailyKos' founder Markos Moulitsas looks at FEC data on committee fundraising last cycle

RNC: DNC:
Raised: $13M Raised: $5.6M
CoH: $26M CoH: $8.2M
NRSC: DSCC:
Raised: $5.1M Raised: $13.6M
CoH: $12M CoH: $23M
NRCC: DCCC:
Raised: $12M Raised: $14.4M
CoH: $40M CoH: $36M

Kos concludes: "Schumer and Rahm may be overbearing asses, but man are they bringing in the dough. Compare that to Liddy Dole's pathetic NRSC. Man, we lucked out on that front. It doesn't look like they could've chosen a worse leader."

LANDSCAPE III: The Richest Speaker In American History Is A Bad Thing Because ...

Few on the right are in any mood to defend GOP incumbents, so to rally the troops they've moved into full attack mode on the Dems. Doug Ross and Don Surber expound on the horrors of a Speaker Nancy Pelosi (D-CA) including: "The Center for Responsive Politics reports Pelosi's net worth is between $14,746,108 and $55,085,000. She might, then, be the richest Speaker in American history." Meanwhile Townhall's Mary Katharine Ham titles a post "The Plans for Impending Impeachment: For Real, Though. Not For Play-Play."

Not all hope is lost on the right, though. National Review Online's Kathryn Jean Lopez predicts: " Rick Santorum will win. Michael Steele will win. Jim Talent will win. The GOP will keep the House and the Senate. It will send a message that we do, in fact, live in a 9/11 world and we vote as if we are." Fellow CorneriteJohn Podhoretz isn't so impressed with the current GOP congress. Looking at their 16% approval rating Podhoretz comments: "Sounds a tad high."

In a similar vein, The Volokh Conspiracy's David Bernstein is not sorry the Republicans are poised to lose the House to the Democrats." Bernstein goes on to argue that GOP defeat in '92 "directly to the Gingrich revolution" and that defeat in '06 " lead to a the emergence of a Republican presidential candidate in '08 and Congressional leaders who will restore some of the reformist fervor of the early Reagan and Gingrich years."

CT SEN: So Which One's Felix?

Firedoglake's Jane Hamsher dubs cable exec Ned Lamont (D) and gambler Alan Schlesinger (R) "the odd couple" noting "what finally united them was a desire to call Joe Lieberman on his ever-shifting political positions as he tried to run first as a Democrat, and then as a Republican. They came together to tell him to get out of their damn yards."

On the right, National Review Online's Greg Pollowitz happily comments on Quinnipiac's new poll showing Lieberman up 52%-35% over Lamont: "This will surely drive the blog left absolutely batty. It also makes the vast majority of Democrats who supported Lamont over Lieberman look incredibly stupid, but the three Democrats running for House seats in Conn. especially so."

My Left Nutmeg's bluestater tells readers the poll "does include the first debate" while the unofficial Lamont Blog reminds readers "Quinnipiac was off by double digits in the days before the primary" and celebrates Lamont's new ad featuring Sen. Chris Dodd (D).

Finally, MyDD's Matt Stoller looks back at video of Lieberman from 1988 and discovers: "Even back then, Lieberman was a strange mixture of foreign policy extremist, pandering culture warrior, and disloyal sociopath."

MD SEN: Right Now Banality Is Beating Vitality

GOP political observers tell National Review Online's Rich Lowry MD is "a tough environment" "with Bush's approval ratings in the state in the upper 30's and his strong disapproval over 50." Lowry's source argues LG Michael Steele (R) "is helped by Cardin's utter banality as a candidate, and his own vitality. The disaffection among African-Americans with Democrats after the Cardin-Mfume primary is real."

Also at The Corner, Kathryn Jean Lopez adds: "A source on the Steele campaign was telling me the other day how black parents will come up to the Lt. Gov. pretty regularly saying they want their children to meet him. ... As we saw on the Voting Rights Act, we may not agree with him on everything if he winds up in the Senate - "independent streak" comes up in conversations about him. But indications are he's a principled and a conservative guy with conservative instincts."

OH SEN: Why Do Taxes And Lips Always Get Mixed Together?

Talking Points Memo's Josh Marshall notes that despite decisions by "a dozen Ohio TV stations" to pull a "false" NRCC ad attacking Rep. Sherrod Brown (D-13) for not paying unemployment tax, Sen. Mike DeWine (R) still used the attack in the debate, recycling an infamous GOP line: "The ad, Sherrod, is true. Read my lips. The ad is true."

MyDD posts Brown's ad in response to the NRCC efforts.

PA SEN: Do It For Frodo!

The Huffington Post has video of Stephen Colbert's figurine-filled explanation of Sen. Rick Santorum's (R) Lord of the Rings analogy to the war on terror.

TN SEN: How Hard Is It To Be The Most Liberal Member Of The TN Delegation?

Right Wings News posts an interview with ex-Chattanooga mayor Bob Corker (R) including:

• John Hawkins: If a Tennessee voter were to come up to you and say, "Bob, give me 3 differences between you and Harold Ford, that would convince me to vote for you, what would you say to him?"
• Bob Corker: Oh gosh, coming up with only 3 would be tough. ...We have a totally, totally different view of the world as it relates to what the federal government should and should not be doing. I obviously embrace those...conservative common sense values that have made Tennessee great. He is the most liberal voting member of the Tennessee delegation. He votes 88% of the time like Hillary Clinton and Ted Kennedy.

Right Angle Blog's Robert Bluey posts Corker's newest ad painting Ford "as a Washington, D.C., insider -- not the Memphis homeboy he's pretending to be."

VA SEN: Webb Simply Loves Bill Clinton

Ex-Navy Sec. James Webb's (D) Netroots Coordinator and Raising Kaine founder sums up 10/19's Pres. Bush campaign stop for Sen. George Allen (R): "Here's the bottom line. If you love Bush and think things are going great in the country, then vote for Allen. If you don't love Bush and think it's time for a change in this country, then vote for Jim Webb. Yes, it's that simple."

National Review Online's John Miller looks back at Webb comments about ex-Pres. Bill Clinton including this one from 1997: "I cannot conjure up an ounce of respect for Bill Clinton when it comes to the military. Every time I see him salute a Marine, it infuriates me. I don't think Bill Clinton cares on iota about what happens in a military unit."

Back on the left at Raising Kaine, Feld links to audio of an ad attacking Webb for not supporting family values and responds: "Why on earth should we believe that a party with the, er, spotty track record on personal sexual morality of the (cough cough Mark Foley) Republican Party is the best defender of traditional Virginia values?"

Finally, RCP Blog's John McIntyre looks at Kieth Olbermann's 10/19 "Special Comment" on the Military Commissions Act and worries it represents "a clear example of the thinking that pervades this increasingly powerful part of the Democratic base." McIntyre concludes: "The Democratic Party needs more Jim Webbs and less Ned Lamonts. ... In Virginia, Webb is an attractive candidate who is well suited for the conservative-leaning state, which is an under-appreciated reason he is faring so well against George Allen. Unlike Lamont, Webb has a real shot at pulling out a victory in a couple of weeks."

OBAMA: Bubblicious

TAPPED's Ben Adler hopes Malcom Gladwell's next book explains "phenomenon of political speculation bubbles." Adler is unhappy with the "Barack Obubble" and hopes to throw cold water on the "classic media sensation" surrounding Sen. Barack Obama (D-IL). Adler adds: "all this talk about Obama as a leader seems to miss the point that he hasn't actually led a fight on any major issue. This doesn't mean that Obama shouldn't run or that the Democrats wouldn't be shrewd to nominate him. If a conservative like David Brooks thinks highly of Obama as a leader/thinker and would consider voting for him, it suggests he may be the only Dem with the crossover appeal of John McCain. But even that, in itself, is a product of the media bubble."

MCCAIN: At Least He's Not A Flip-Flopper

Commenting on Sen. John McCain's 10/18 Hardball appearance under the header "John McCain: 'Gay Marriage Should Be Allowed" Right Angle Blog's Ivy Sellers writes: "Not that this is really news -- the senator has said before that he thinks his party's attempts to ban same-sex marriage are "un-republican." Of course, that was on the Senate floor in 2004. In 2005, he swung the other way on the issue, backing a state initiative to ban gay marriages by amending Arizona's constitution."

IA's Caucus Cooler is more sympathetic: "McCain phrased his opinion in an awful way. And he's going to have to be more disciplined in the future. The fact is McCain's position on marriage has always been the same though. He's against it and supports the marriage amendment on a state level not a federal level."

ROMNEY: He Says "Shifty" Like It's A Bad Thing

IA's Caucus Cooler was unfazed by reports that MA Gov. Mitt Romney "is going to use Mormon organizations and infrastructure to help boost his campaign." CC comments: "Who wouldn't? It makes complete sense. That is a powerful tool for his nationwide organization. As a second point, clearly, the Boston Globe is not fair to Romney and will continue to be a thorn in his side. If some of the coordination is unethical then we'll believe it when the story expands out of the Globe. Until then it's not a story. At all."

Sen. John McCain (R-AZ) advisor and Ankle Biting Pundit's Patrick Hynes asks: "Religious intolerance is an ugly thing and few practice it with as much flagrant ugliness (or as expertly) as the Boston Globe. For years, the paper has needled Mitt Romney about his LDS faith, barely disguising their contempt. Have they gone too far with this article? Or have they, as I'm sure they would argue, done us all a public service?" Hynes later reminds readers: "So that we are clear, I don't like Mitt Romney. I think he is a shifty, too-smooth-by-half political opportunist and I have felt this way since 1994 when I watched him tack leftward in a vein attempt to maintain his short-lived and possibly apocryphal lead over Sen. Ted Kennedy."

IRAQ: A Whale Of An Argument

Lefty bloggers are loving National Review Online's Jonah Goldberg's admission that "[t]he Iraq war was a mistake." Daily Kos' DemFromCT writes: "Well, I'll say this. No idea on how to get out should be dismissed, even when presented by someone as thoroughly wrong about Iraq as Jonah. ... If conservatives come up with a reasonable exit strategy that makes a dollop of sense, or if we do and they agree, we need to go for it (and argue who thought of it first at a later date). Don't worry about them losing the argument. They already have."

The Washingtons Monthly's Kevin Drum is less concerned with winning arguments, but still has questions: "The civil war in Iraq is getting worse, our current strategy plainly isn't working, there are no more troops to send over, the political situation in Baghdad is untenable, and the U.S. Army is still culturally allergic to counterinsurgency and security training ... So what's the plan? It may be true that "if we can finish the job, the war won't be remembered as a mistake," but even if the Iraqis vote to keep us around, how do we finish the job?"

THOUGHT OF THE DAY: The Real Reason Bush Invaded Iraq

After looking at a BBC story on Americans possibly violating sanctions on Iran by playing basket there Matthew Yglesias muses:

I've had the following, probably deeply unoriginal, observation on my chest for weeks now and this seems like a reasonable pretext for unloading. If you look at where baseball is popular outside the USA -- primarily Japan, South Korea, Taiwan, and the Caribbean basin -- you're basically looking at a sport that's spread on the coattails of American "hard power" to regions of the world where there have been large US military deployments. Basketball, by contrast, is most popular in the areas where we haven't based troops -- Brazil and Argentina in Latin America; mainland China in Asia; Eastern and Southern Europe. And, apparently, Iran. What this signifies, I couldn't say.

LEST WE FORGET: What's Wrong With A Little Profanity Among Kossacks?

DailyKos' founder Markos Moulitsas beseeches readers: "And on an unrelated note, 3 percent of all diaries the last six hours have the word "f[--]k" in the title. It's like the new "BREAKING!" Lame. Be a little more creative than that. You're outraged. We get it. There are more articulate ways of expressing that, especially in a title. It's getting ridiculous."

10/19: You're On The Same Team Guys

Stories from both sides of the blogosphere today demonstrate that neither party is going to harness the capabilities of the 'sphere without a few growing pains. On the right, conservative talk-show host Rush Limbaugh is talking about an Instapundit post title "GOP pre-mortem" for the 3rd consecutive day. While Rush has heaped praise on other right bloggers, there's definitely a disconnect between Limbaugh and Instapundit made worse by the fact that neither seems to regularly read the other. On the left, Chris Bowers at MyDD is pushing for all 45 unopposed House Dems to distribute all $26+ mil. of their CoH to competitive races this fall. This may be a fabulous idea, but we can't imagine the cash will be easily parted with.

BLOGGERS VS. BELTWAY: Hey, Big Spender!

DailyKos' founder Markos Moulitsas looks at DCCC reports that "the DCCC is likely to go deep into debt, perhaps topping the $11 million deficit it racked up in 2004" in order to "pick up 40 or more seats." Markos comments: "I like that the committee will go into debt. The DNC is going to borrow $5-10 million to assist the DSCC's efforts to take the Senate. Democrats are getting a bit cocky and looking to land a knockout blow -- one that would almost reverse the current makeup of the House, from a 15-seat deficit to a 15-seat advantage."

MyDD's Chris Bowers is less happy about the news: "This is a risky gamble, one that I have to say I don't like very much. If we come up short in any of these races, then that will be money the DNC could have spent on continuing to hire organizers in all fifty states. ... We will also have to pay back some debt after the election, instead of immediately working on 2008. Both of these are drags on our long-term goals."

MyDD's Jonathan Singer, however, loved the idea: "Let's Borrow Big Bucks for a Majority ... It's a very good sign that the DCCC is considering borrowing against the future in order to try to make full use of this opportunity."

BLOGGERS VS. BELTWAY II: Luco Brazi Only Wanted Ten Percent

"Amidst all of this talk about taking out loans to fund key races" MyDD's Chris Bowers, writing in a Daily Kos diary, tallied up the CoH numbers for the 45 Dems with no opponent and found $26,288,418 as if 9/30. At MyDD Bowers asks readers to call all 45 unchallenged Dems and ask them to transfer "all of their money to the DCCC in large lumps and / or to competitive Democratic campaigns at $2,100 a pop." Kos comments: "I'd be happy if they ponied up just half of that idle cash"

BLOGGERS VS. BELTWAY III: Bigger Than EMILY's List

DailyKos' founder Markos Moulitsas explains that with "$11.8 million raised this cycle" if "ActBlue wasn't a pass through PAC, it would be the largest Democratic PAC in the country in candidate contributions." Kos continues: "If our little Netroots list was a standalone PAC, it would rank 17th or so for the largest disbursements to federal candidates. The way to lessen the impact of narrow interest groups is to promote people-powered funding of candidates. And ActBlue has made that possible."

BLOGGERS VS. BELTWAY IV: O Ye Of Little Faith

MyDD's Jonathan Singer looks at Hotline On Call (go team!) reports on increased K Street giving to Dems and highlights Rep. Nancy Pelosi (D-CA) spokesman Brendan Daly's insistence that corporate donors "understand our agenda" and "that is the agenda they can expect should Democrats take the majority." Singer isn't so sure: "I wish I had the same faith in Democratic leaders that Mr. Daly has. I really do. I wish I could believe that these special interests, which have fought against many of the core progressive tenets of the Democratic Party at least the last decade and realistically even longer, are simply trying to get on the good side of the next leaders of the House and won't be able to co-opt the Democratic leadership to their side come January."

LANDSCAPE: No Curbing This Enthusiasm

Writing at TPM Cafe, Dem pollster Stan Greenberg looks at polling showing "Democratic base voters are 20 points more likely than Republican base voters to say they are 'enthusiastic' about this election." Greenberg announces that his new poll shows the pro-Dem shift "is driven by a greatly increased anger about Iraq." Greenberg concludes: "These moments come once or twice in a political life time. ... We have the chance to build a comparable majority, which will impact politics for the next decade."

MyDD's Chris Bowers notes that Dems are not quite over the hump yet in the Senate. Bowers looks at poll averages in 13 races highlighting the five closest races including TN, MO, VA, AZ, and CT. Bowers has Dems picking up between 4-6 seats and projects a 50-48-2 Senate finish.

CT SEN: We Get It, Lefty Bloggers Love Alan Schlesinger

Under the header, "Debate Train to Crazy Town" MyDD's Matt Stoller has a lengthy recap of 10/18's debate between Sen. Joe Lieberman (I), cable exec Ned Lamont (D), gambler Alan Schlesinger (R), and two other people. Highlights include:

• What has happened is that Joe Lieberman competed in a Democratic primary, lost, and is now competing in a Republican primary, and is losing again.
• [T]here are a lot of parallels between Alan Schlesinger and Ross Perot. Both are charismatic, and both tap into a xenophobic and charming right-wing populist streak in the American electorate focusing on closed borders and the insolvency of entitlements.
• Fortunately, Alan Schlesinger just shattered the status quo here and injected a sense of fun, making this race what it's needed to be for awhile, a friggin' carnival.
• Republicans and conservative unaffiliated voters are now torn between their heads and their hearts, because Schlesinger really delivered, once again.

Other debate reax:

• Lamont's official blogger Tim Tagaris at Daily Kos: "The buzz is back, folks. The carnival-like atmosphere has returned to the race and our team is all kinds of fired up, poised to bring this race home." Tagaris also notes: "Joe Lieberman's tracker is now tracking Alan Schlesinger as well."
• DailyKos' founder Markos Moulitsas chimes in: "I love the framing that "Lieberman lost the Democratic primary, now he's losing the Republican primary" because it happens to be true. Joe needs Republican voters. If Schlesinger picks up another 10 percent of support, gets into the 15-20 percent range, then Lieberman is toast."
• Pachacutec at firedoglake: "Alan Schlesinger owned Loser Joe again. Hard. Drew blood. Stephen Colbert, please have him on your show. I asked you once nicely. Don't make me get nasty!"
• unofficial Lamont Blog: "Emerging consensus this time: Lieberman was alone onstage in defending Bush's war, Ned took Joe to task on Social Security and energy as well, Schlesinger was a big story again."

Stoller also has video of Lamont from the debate and of Schlesinger afterwards.

MD SEN: Can They Keep This Macaca Alive?

Writing about Rep. Steny Hoyer's (MD-03) 10/15 use of the word "slavishly" to describe LG Michael Steele (R) RCP Blog's Tom Bevan is "not sure if Steele is going to get any mileage out of this or not - but he's certainly trying. In that case, he might as well respond to Hoyer the same way D'Amato did to Abrams back in 1992: write a letter saying that "only when the political damage became too great did you offer an apology. I neither forgive nor excuse your behavior."

For her part, Michelle Malkin "was prepared to write that Hoyer had gotten a bad rap" until she "read more about the context of his remarks and Hoyer's past history of race-based insults against Steele. Hoyer didn't just innocently use the word in ordinary conversation. He employed it during a comedy routine in front of a crowd of mostly black business owners."

Instapundit isn't sure "slavish" is a racist taunt but notes: "unlike "macaca" at least we all know what the word means." MeanwhileTownhall's Mary Katharine Ham notes "He's also gonna require 183 more mentions in the Washington Post. No, seriously, he's 183 behind "Macaca," and there are only three weeks left in the campaign. Get on it!" FinallyPower Line's Paul Mirengoff sees nothing out of the ordinary: "Come on. This word is used all the time in politics to attack those who support a particular line. Let's not draw any inferences from ordinary usage of the English language."

MT SEN: But Does Rove Have A Secret Plan To Defeat Tester?

Manyleftybloggers are laughing at Sen. Conrad Burns insistence that Pres. Bush has a plan for Iraq but that " he's not gonna tell everybody in the whole world. And if you wanna go out and spar for a fight or you gonna tell your enemy what your plan is." DailyKos' founder Markos Moulitsas quips: "It would also be nice if Bush and Burns shared their secret plan for Iraq with the generals trying to hold things together in that misbegotten hellhole."

Also Left in the West shares doubts about the MSU-Billings poll but still concludes: "If we can believe the MSU-B poll was done in a sound way, 46-35 is huge."

NJ SEN: The Artful Dodger

Atrios posts "hilarious" video of State Sen. Tom Kean Jr. (R) dodging "23 Iraq questions."

PA SEN: No Mention Of Mordor Here

Sen. Rick Santorum (R) guest blogged at Captain's Quarters 10/18: "If you want to keep your taxes low, defeat the Islamofascist threat to our freedom, and restore sanity to our judicial system by appointing judges who won't re-write the Constitution every chance they get...then my victory in Pennsylvania will help protect you and your family from the radical left seeking to seize control of the United States Senate this November."

VA SEN: Dueling Presidents...Is That Like Dueling Banjos But Different?

Ex-Navy Sec. James Webb's (D) Netroots Coordinator and Raising Kaine founder Lowell Feld notes: "Tomorrow, we'll have dueling Presidents in Virginia: Bill Clinton for Jim Webb, and George W. Bush for George Allen." Feld asks: "Who's more popular, Clinton or Bush? According to a poll conducted for CNN in May 2006 ... a strong majority of respondents said President Clinton outperformed Bush on a host of issues."

Also at Raising Kaine, Feld explains why Allen hates Polar Bears, and phriendlyjaimeclaims "Kinky Porn Loving Adulterers" love Allen.

On the right, Townhall's Mary Katharine Ham celebrates an Allen endorsement from the "African-American Paper" The Richmond Voice. Ham remembers: "In case you're wondering about their track record, the Voice endorsed Democrat Tim Kaine over Kilgore for governor last year."

The official AllenHQ links to a Washington Times refutation of a Webb ad on Allen's stock option reporting and posts pics from the Veterans of Foreign Wars endorsement of Allen.

CLINTON: Russell Shaw Hasn't MovedOn

The Huffington Post's Russell Shaw does not "begrudge anyone's right to believe in what they believe in" but wonders "how much of Hillary's cross-wearing is consultant-driven, as opposed to driven more by belief." Shaw adds: "I also happen to wonder how this symbolic display of her faith squares with the almost irrefutable fact that she ignored her husband's multiple adulterous episodes in her quest to be close to power- and then gain some for herself."

OBAMA: Who Knew TAPPED Had So Many Racist Readers?

TAPPED's Ezra Klein forwards an email from a reader:

I just voted absentee, straight Democrat. That being said I assure you I will never vote for a woman nor a black for president and I am not alone. If Hillary/Obama ran they probably could not even carry all the blue states and certainly not the South. Perhaps after we are taken over by the Mexicans voting will change.

Elsewhere on the left Talk Left's Big Tent Democrat attacks Sen. Barack Obama's (D-IL) "bipartisan silliness" and TAPPED's Charles Pierce warns Obama that Joe Klein "man-crushes" can go south quickly.

TERROR POLITICS: Well, If Wiki Says It's True ...

Tigerhawk compares what Pres. Bush actually said in response to George Stephanpoulos Iraq/vietnam question ("There's certainly a stepped-up level of violence, and we're heading into an election.") to Think Progress' summary: "President Bush is right to finally admit that violence in Iraq has reached a tipping point, and that the U.S. is not winning the war as he has claimed." Tigerhawk argues Bush "merely agreed that there was an appropriate comparison to be made between the Tet offensive and the violence we are seeing in Iraq today. I agree." Tigerhawk then quotes Wikipedia on the Tet offensive: "The Tet Offensive is frequently seen as an example of the value of propaganda, media influence and popular opinion in the pursuit of military objectives." Tigerhawk concludes: " In that one regard, Iraq is dangerously similar to Vietnam, which fact the mainstream media would know if the typical editor read military history instead of the journalism pretending to be history that fills the bestseller lists."

Also in GWOT news, at The Huffington Post, womans' studies prof. Francine Busby (D) announces that her campaign received "250 copies of 'Iraq for Sale' from a generous donor" and will be passing them out to precinct captains "to help organize Get Out The Vote efforts." Busby on the movie: "This film shines a bright light on how Congress abdicated its vital role in holding President Bush accountable for the conduct of this costly and wasteful distraction from the war on terrorism."

And in the tin-foil hat department, Talking Points Memo reader RT wonders: " At some point, in the vast TPM Media empire, you need to start taking bets on when the OBL video will be released. I'm thinking the Friday morning before the election." Josh Marshall responds: "Sounds right to me. Clearly, Osama can't keep a regular video taping operation going while he's on the run or living in that duplex in Quetta or the brownstone in Karachi. But he does seem to be able to put out video clips at key moments on the Jihadist version of youtube. So when does it drop?"

BLOGGERS VS. MSM: Ron Burgundy Has A Radio Show?

Samablog claims conservative talk show host Rush Limbaugh has "declared war on the blogosphere, going to far as to declare that it was not the blogosphere that did in Trent Lott, but the MSM and the left. Today's broadcast may mark a formal break between the Internet and talk radio. yesterday he derisively referred to "that Instapundit guy."

Instapundit-readers/Limbaugh listeners heard a different story:

• Keith Waldrop: "Limbaugh is not singling you out. He is merely using the term "pre-mortem" as a lightning rod or example of the things he's hearing in the blogosphere that bother him. He's hitting on the issue for a third day which is much his style. I believe he genuinely would like you to respond in kind."
• Jack Lillywhite: "His point is that whatever mistakes the GOP has made - they are still the only (of the two) party that represents the values and long term objectives (i.e. Supreme court makeover) of conservatives. That is his main rant. Not your pre-mortem. Although I do think Rush has always had a problem with the "creeping libertarianism" of the conservative perspective.
• Mary Evans: "Rush credited bloggers on his show today, and made a point to say he was not criticizing you. I just went to Rob Sama's site and read what he said. He either has a grudge against Rush or did not listen to what Rush said in full."

Instapundit links to a transcript of Rush's monologue and writes: "I think the GOP has been failing to exercise the kind of self-discipline that a party with a slim majority that wants to stay in the majority needs to exercise, especially if the stakes are as high as Limbaugh says they are. Because if the future of Western civilization is at stake, you shouldn't blow your credibility on pork and pocket-stuffing."

Other righty bloggers also noted "America's Anchorman" kind words for them. Townhall's Hugh Hewitt: "My inbox is full of e-mails alerting me to Rush's kind comments about this blog during today's show. That's like a sub designer getting a compliment from Rickover." Power Line's Scott Johnson: "We join our friend Hugh Hewitt (from whom I've borrowed the heading) in thanking Rush Limbaugh for his kind mention of us today on his show."

THOUGHT OF THE DAY: Keep It Simple, Silly

Townhall's Mary Katharine Ham launched her first vlog 10/18, taking on Sen. Harry Reid's (D-NV) Las Vegas, NV land deal. Ham writes: "My take is that things like this don't really stick, electorally speaking, no matter how wrong they are, unless they're really simple. This is not really simple, but maybe the stick figures will help. Please enjoy."

LEST WE FORGET: How Would Yoda Spin?

While arguing that The Military Commissions Act "fundamentally" changed the US by killing "freedom in the middle of the night" Cenk Uygur at The Huffington Post illustrates how today's MSM would have covered the Galactic Civil War:

Here's neutral: The Jedi rebels say the Death Star is a peril to the universe, but Darth Vader assures the universe that the empire is trying to protect us from the insurgent terrorists that seek to do us harm.

Here's objective: It's called the Death Star. Its objective is complete control. Darth Vader's tactics are brutal and dictatorial.

But, of course, it's even worse. The headline today would read: Vader Says He Will Keep Us Safe.

10/18: Paternity Testing

If victory does indeed have many fathers, a Dem triumph this 11/7 is going to require a hell of a paternity test. MyDD's Chris Bowers continues a series of posts 10/17 arguing that the netroots role "preaching to the choir" has been a significant factor in Dem voter enthusiasm for the '06 cycle. If current trends continue, and Dems pick up wins in races like CA-11, ID-01, and WY-AL the Bowers netroots will have another strong argument that their expansion of the field was a significant factor in helping Dems take back the House. But do the netroots have a governing agenda for the next two years? One lefty blogger was pleasantly surprised to find out Rep. Nancy Pelosi (D-CA) even had one. If the netroots do establish themselves as key to Dem success, what will their policy agenda look like?

BLOGGERS VS. BELTWAY: The Origin Of Everything That Is Good In The World

MyDD's Chris Bowers claims "every improvement Democrats have made since 2004, from fundraising, to the fifty-state strategy, even to making Republican scandals stick to the media, finds its origin within the netroots and the progressive movement." Bowers goes on to look at Pew polling on voter enthusiasm for '06 compared to previous cycles and writes: "It does not at all strike me as coincidental that the increase in Democratic voter enthusiasm took place concurrently with the rise of progressive media." Bowers concludes: "We expanded the playing field. We fired up the base. If the netroots and the progressive movement never appeared on the scene, the entire Democratic infrastructure would probably still be focused exclusively on about 10% of the electorate. Once again, the netroots and the progressive movement have made the difference."

In a similar vein, DailyKos' founder Markos Moulitsas looks at the DCCC's "emerging races" and "red to blue" program and lists the candidates the netroots supported before anyone in DC: From red to blue: PA-07, PA-08, NJ-07, and NH-02. From emerging races: WA-08, CA-11, NY-29, NC-08, CO-05, IL-10, MN-01, and ID-01. Markos comments:

So far, looking far better than any of us would've ever dared hope when we put together this list. If our goal was to expand the playing field and fly the Democratic banner in places that hadn't seen it in a long time, we have already succeeded. Of course, success raises expectations. It no longer is enough just to be competitive in these tough districts, in these long-shot races. Now, we want to win them. As usual, we're responding to success by moving the goal posts.

Later, Markos can't resist whacking Beltway types that doubted the power of the netroots. Kos quotes Stu Rothenberg from 1/05: "Blogger Chris Bowers at MyDD perhaps is the best example of how clueless some bloggers really are about politics. ... he insists "we need to attack everywhere." Markos comments: "But man, doesn't that Rothenberg column look and sound idiotic nowadays? I assume Stu knows better now."

BLOGGERS VS. BELTWAY II: Dems Have Secret Plan To Rule The Country

Talking Points Memo's Josh Marshall looks forward to "the subpoena power that has the White House shaking in its boots" should Dems win in Nov., but he is more hopeful for the victory's affect on "on the psyche of Democrats." Marshall writes: "After the last six years, it will have a deep effect on the perceptions of both parties. And with a party that has based on so much on bluff, confidence and force, that could be a very big deal."

Others on the left are less concerned about pysche and more about policy. At The Huffington Post, Miles Mogulescu was happily surprised to find out from fellow HuffPoerHilary Rosen that Rep. Nancy Pelosi (D-CA) actually has "a plan for the First 100 Hours of a Democratic Congress" including "Day One: Put new rules in place to "break the link between lobbyists and legislation ... Day Two: "Enact all the recommendations made by the commission that investigated the terrorist attacks of Sept. 11, 2001. ... Time remaining until 100 hours: "Raise the minimum wage to $7.25 an hour; cut the interest rate on student loans in half; allow the government to negotiate directly with the pharmaceutical companies for lower drug prices for Medicare patients; broaden the types of stem cell research allowed with federal funds, etc." Mogulescu comments:

Here's my question: Why IS THIS THE FIRST I'VE HEARD OF THIS PROGRAM? WHY AREN'T DEMOCRATS RUNNING ON IT? IS IT SUPPOSED TO BE SOME KIND OF SECRET? I checked out Pelosi's own website and couldn't even find a mention of this proposal. ... Top Democratic leaders should immediately hold a national press conference announcing their 100 Hour Program. They should talk about it in speeches and press interviews. Democrats should run on it in local races throughout the country.

Over at Talk Left, Big Tent Democrat offers guidelines for a possible Dem agenda:

• (1)Start with the most popular programs that Republicans have sought to stymie.
  For example, stem cell research. For another example, the minimum wage.


• (2) On Iraq, start with accountability, NOT plans. Demand answers. Do not start with solutions. Demand victory plans, not exit plans.


• (3) Do be prepared for a titanic fight - the Supreme Court if Stevens leaves us.

BLOGGERS VS. BELTWAY III: 3293 Kossacks Can't Be Wrong

Daily Kos' diarist Benito reports Blog Active's Mike Rodgers "outed" Sen. Larry Craig (R-ID) on Ed Schultz Radio Show. Benito then asks Kossacks: "Do you agree with outing Gay Republicans?" 69% of 4714 Kossacks voted yes.

LANDSCAPE: It Ain't Over Till Rosie O'Donnell Sings

A fresh round of doubt about Dems imminent takeover of congress surfaced through out out the blogosphere. TPM Cafe's Matt Corley notes that of the top 60 competitive House races the GOP candidates had a cash advantage in 41 of them. RCP Blog's Jay Cost looks at cash on hand numbers for 18 Dem challengers of GOP incumbents currently in Charlie Cook's toss-up category and finds "5 of these 18 candidates seem to have some problems. I think it could really matter for 4 of the 5."

Also at RCP BlogJohn McIntyre links to his updated House rankings and reports that GOP prospects in the Northeast have improved: "Of those six seats (CT-2, CT-4, CT-5, PA-6, PA-7, PA-8) the GOP is actually in a position to potentially hold all six and could easily keep their losses to only two. Weldon and Shays appear the most vulnerable of that group on our list." Captain's Quarters casts doubt on Star Tribune polling in MN-06 noting that the poll's sample "for the district consisted of 58% women."

The left's Eric Alterman at Media Matters is also not at all convinced Dems will prevail arguing: "National polls never matter much, but they matter less than ever in an off-year election where districts are drawn to look like pretzels and money can either increase or depress turnout, whatever is needed. The Republican structural advantage is both categories is more powerful than the feelings of voters across the land, I fear." Kausfiles links and notes: "Alterman even lashes out at the Congressional Black Caucus. ("Seventy-percent victories are not enough for them ...") He has more in common with Marty Peretz than he realizes!"

CT SEN: Payback's A Bolton

Lefty bloggers highlighted Sen. Joe Lieberman's (I-CT) support for UN Amb. John Bolton as further indication of Lieberman's intention exact "retribution" on Dems. MyDD's Matt Stoller noted Lieberman's support for Bolton's nomination was odd since the "nomination is dead" and explained the move as "Joe Lieberman slapping Chris Dodd and the Democratic Party in the face. ... In other words, Joe is angry and vindictive, and is starting his retribution early." Firedoglake's Christy Hardin Smith described Lieberman's Bolton support as "yet another F-U to the Democratic Party." Also at firedoglake, Jane Hamsher wonders why Dems "aren't more offended just on general principle by Joe Lieberman smacking them around and publicly humiliating them on a daily basis."

MD SEN: Apparently Michael Steele Is Black

Righty bloggers took offense to Rep. Steny Hoyer's (D-05) Rep. Ben Cardin (D-03) 10/17 campaign stop. RCP Blog's Tom Bevan writes: "Did the number two Democrat in the House of Representatives (who is white) really tell a Maryland crowd that Republican Senate candidate Michael Steele (who is black) has had "a career of slavishly supporting the Republican Party?" Unbelievably, the answer is "yep." RedState's Erick Erickson was also offended.

MI SEN: Uh, Yes

Townhall's Mary Katharine Ham links to a video for Oakland Co. Sheriff Mike Bouchard and asks: "Am I a total sucker because the Van Halen is doin' it for me?"

RedState's Jeff Emanuel also has video of a "good, issues-oriented negative ad from a good candidate."

OH SEN: Should They Stay, Or Should They GO?

Via a "Democratic strategist who is in regular contact with the local Ohio networks" TPM Cafe's Greg Sargent reports "the NRSC has no more air time reserved" in OH and "the RNC has indeed reserved some $2.4 million in air time between now and election day. But here's the rub: The source adds that networks are reporting that only around $700,000 of that time has been actually paid for by the RNC."

VA SEN: An Editorial A Blogger Could Have Written

Ex-Navy Sec. James Webb's (D) Netroots Coordinator and Raising Kaine founder Lowell Feld finds 10/18's Washington Post endorsement of Webb "striking" since the Post "has a centrist, corporate, "mainstream" editorial page that tends to love the status quo, including incumbents." Feld also quotes the editorial on Sen. George Allen (R): "his legislative contributions have been marginal at best. He is no one's idea of a heavyweight in the Senate." Feld comments: "Ouch! The truth hurts, no? But wow, that's something Raising Kaine could have written!"

Also at Raising Kaine, DanG attacks Allen aide Dick Wadhams' defense of Allen's use of League of Women Voters debate footage in an ad. Wadhams claims Team Webb first broke the agreement since Raising Kaine "which receives funding from the Webb campaign" posted video of the debate first. DanG responds: "First of all, has the Allen Campaign really sunk to the point that it's comparing itself to an activist-run blog? Seriously, that's pathetic dude. ... Raising Kaine itself does not receive funding from the Webb Campaign. How many times do we have to say this? Lowell and Josh work for Webb, and they receive payment. I don't. ... As a matter of fact, a vast majority of the people who organize this site have never seen a dime from Jim Webb."

Still at Raising Kaine, Feld posts photos of "Military Women Strongly Endors[ing] Jim Webb." At the official AllenHQ describes Webb's claim of responsibility for the increase of billets available to women as "nothing more than resume-padding and ego-fluffing." Finally, The A-Team and Right Wing News both attack Webb for including a scene in one of his novels that reads like "a Mark Foley Instant Message."

DEM FIELD: Ummm, Hasn't Markos Been Talking About This For Months Now?

Prompted by an email from a reader "who'd gotten a campaign solicitation from a 2008 aspirant pleading for money for a race this year they're running away with" Talking Points Memo's Josh Marshall asks "So, of all the worthies now in the field for 2008, how much are they giving to those House challengers who, just maybe if the wave is big enough, could actually win?"

KERRY: Not So Bad

TPM Cafe's Reed Hundt argues: "No one should underestimate John Kerry's plausibility as the comeback kid. He has the money; he has learned from experience; he has paid the dues of candidates in this election; he even stood against Senator Joe, ... John may have taken his time to get where he is, but his current location on the political map is not so bad."

At TPM, reader MB defends Kerry's record giving to Dem House candidates: "JK has been working his ass off for both Senate and House candidates. For example: Patrick Murphy -- $145,000. Darcy Burner -- $25,000. Tammy Duckworth -- $185,000. Honestly, I can't think of any sitting member of Congress in my lifetime who has done as much for congressional candidates, whether in an off-year election or not.

BLOGGERS VS. MSM: Now It's Personal

Talking Points Memo's Josh Marshall passes along thoughts from a former colleague of Sen. Harry Reid (D-NV) unreported land deal revealer John Solomon: ""I worked [X] years in the same office as Solomon, sometimes with him. The consensus: he's lazy, and takes hit jobs handed him on a platter by opps research teams (and anyone will do.) And doesn't do much to clean it up." Marshall comments: "On Reid, I think it's a combination of two things. One, as I said, he's an easy mark for oppo researchers peddling stuff that other journos didn't think met the laugh test. And two, he hasn't really landed a punch yet and Reid's fought back. So now it's a bit personal."

THOUGHT OF THE DAY: Willie Nelson To Join Canadian Army

Prompted by reports of Canadian troop troubles fighting the Taliban among "10-foot-tall marijuana plants" TAPPED's Robert Farley writes:

In all seriousness, the Canadian mission in Afghanistan has grown increasingly controversial as Canadian troops have begun to suffer casualties disproportionate to the size of the deployment. In a recent poll, 59 percent of Canadians said that the war in Afghanistan could not be won, numbers more or less in line with U.S. popular attitudes on Iraq. The same poll revealed some downright hostile attitudes towards the Bush administration, the war on terror, and the U.S. position in Iraq. ... A portion of this decline is undoubtedly in response to the worsening situation on the ground there. However, resentment toward the United States for the invasion of Iraq and perception that the U.S. has failed to properly support the Afghan operation have almost certainly contributed to some disillusionment.

LEST WE FORGET: No Joy In Metville

For Mets fan and TNR contributor Jill Greenberg, baseball season is bringing back some unfortunate memories:

The NLCS feels like the equivalent of the 2000 election, to quote a friend "nasty, brutish and too long." Like the Democrats, Mets fans were hopeful, even optimistic. We were the favored horses, things were going to be tight -- this everyone knew. The NLDS was the equivalent of the early exit polls on election night, things were looking good. ... But we know now that the polls might have been overly optimistic. As in, a 4-2-loss-and-the-brink-of-elimination optimistic.

Let's examine the players in each of these sagas. Is Tom Glavine the Al Gore of the Mets? No one thought either one of them could lose; Glavine with his record, Al Gore with his Vice Presidency. We thought we could ride Glavine to victory, as the Dems did with Gore in 2000. Both assumptions have proven questionable. El Duque's injury, an unknown factor that could have completely changed the course of events for the Mets, can be compared to Teresa's LePore's poorly designed butterfly ballot. The failure to have the foresight to pick up Barry Zito before the end of the trading deadline is the equivalent of the Democrats not picking former Florida Senator Bob Graham as Vice President. And Pedro Martinez? Kind of like Joe Lieberman -- seemed like a good idea in theory, but ultimately added little to the mix.

Blogometer Update: House Edition

CT 04: Sex As A Weapon

  Matt Corley at TPMCafe has an update on the controversial comments last week by Rep. Chris Shays, in which the incumbent GOPer--a frequent visitor to Iraq--"asserted that what happened at the notorious prison 'wasn't torture' and was just a 'sex ring.'"  Corley:

  Shays acknowledged to the Associated Press today that what happened at the prison was in fact torture.  But he offered a curious qualification, saying "it was torture because sex abuse is torture."  He added that his earlier remarks had been prompted by photos of "naked Iraqis, naked Americans, Americans having sex."  It was unclear from his comments which disturbed Shays more -- the images of abuse or the images of sex.

  Commenter whiterosebuddy had this to add:

  Shays has visited Iraq numerous times and is privvy to the entire report on AbuGhraib.  I suspect the details and truth are more salacious and bigger than the public knows.  This particular story involved enlisted people who were engaged in sex among themselves that tawdryjezebelleashholdingtrash, and the other wifebeatersuperior of hers were having sex.  Recall, that she was pregnant?  Shays is basically saying that these folks were engaged in sadomaschistic sex acts and the public and general population view this as torture.  The truth is probably even worse than we know.

CT 04: UnFarrelly Maligned?

  Andrew Golis has the goods on the latest GOP mailing to constituents of Connecticut's 4th district at TPMCafe.  It seems that Dem challenger Diane Farrell likes having a cup of joe with the Taliban.  Golis includes scans of the mailing, and has this to say:

  To back up this charge, the flyer says simply that Farrell's candidacy "is endorsed by an organization with a leader who wanted someone to sit down and have a talk with the Taliban."  The group isn't named.  But NRCC spokesman Ed Patru tells Election Central that the organization in question is the Council for a Livable World, a moderate think tank previously cited in GOP advertising.

  No further evidence beyond the unnamed leader of the Council who supposedly advocated talks with the Taliban was offered to support the belief that Farrell herself believes anything like this.

  Commenter BlueInColorado remarks, "This is really weird.  You expect this in Alabama or Idaho.  Places below the proverbial media radar, but this kind of crap, combined with his 'no torture at Abu Grahib' in Connecticut?  Not very steady at all.  I can't think of another candidate melting down this badly.  Especially an old hand like Shays."

  For his part, Shays is outraged at his own party for the mailing.  Golis, in another TPMCafe entry, notes that Shays posted a statement on his site "slamming the flyer ... as 'outrageous' and as 'garbage,' saying that it was 'an insult to the intelligence of the Fourth District.'"

NY 25: Toxic Walsh

  Mark Weiner, in a item at The Huffington Post, reports on a new ad by a D.C. think tank that, by featuring speaking children, blasts incumbent GOP Rep. James Walsh for his position on stem cell research.  (The ad is visible here.)  Walsh, according to Weiner's article at The Post-Standard of Syracuse, "reacted angrily."  To wit:

  Walsh immediately asked three local television stations to stop airing the ads, saying they were false, misleading and in violation of rules that require such ads not paid for by candidates to be accurate.  "It is a whole new low," said Dan Gage, speaking for Walsh.  "They're using children.  You see a mom and a teenage boy and a young child.  For all of those folks, you want to do everything that you can."  He added, "The ad is blatantly false and inaccurate.  It's a complete lie."  Gage said the congressman has always supported federal funding for stem cell research, including existing embryonic stem cells that can become all of a body's cell types.  Walsh's opposition is to the use of new lines of embryonic cells not already part of research projects, he said.

  The group that produced the ad says it stands by its commercial, saying "Doing everything you can means supporting embryonic stem cell research."

  Commenter thedetroitviper at HuffPo cracked, "Said Rep. Walsh, 'Why don't these kids just shut-up and die already?  Can't they see that I'm in a close race?'"

PA 07: Curt Tailed

  Despite press hype that the FBI was about to investigate Rep. Curt Weldon for influence peddling, the raids that actually happened were on the office of Weldon's daughter and a friend of the GOP incumbent.  In a news conference on Monday, Weldon said, "I have not done anything wrong and my daughter hasn't either.  I would absolutely never use my position to help anyone in an unusual way."

  The left side of the blogosphere ain't buyin' it.  Last Night in Little Rock's take at TalkLeft is representative of the more sardonic element:

  If one has to [deny] any wrongdoing," then an investigation would seem to be the next thing on the agenda.  "Off guard"?  Being a Congressperson from the GOP does not mean that one is bulletproof.  They just think they are.  As Lord Acton said in 1887, "Power tends to corrupt and absolute power corrupts absolutely."  The GOP apparently wants to prove Lord Acton correct.  Wait.  Nixon already did.  This is just the new guys.

  Will Bunch at Attytood focuses on the hard stuff, though:

  There's an updated story from the Associated Press on the Curt Weldon investigation that says the feds actually raided six sites today -- not just the home of the Delaware County Republican's lobbyist daughter and Delco GOP powerhouse Charlie Sexton but also two other sites in the Philly area and two in Jacksonville, Fla.

  Jacksonville?  That's a huge window into the investigation, because a leading client of Karen Weldon and Sexton's former lobbying firm, the Russian oil giant Itera, has its American office there.

  Commenter Mr. Smith remarks, "Generally, Weldon's been very good at bringing home the bacon.  In this case, he didn't bring it home.  He dropped the ball.  He's outlived his usefulness to his district, and his quirky weirdness has lost its entertainment value.  It's time for some nameless, faceless, useless Democrat to hold the seat for 2 years.

TX 22: DeLay Effect

  Greg Sargent at TPMCafe writes that the GOP has all but abandoned their candidate Shelley Sekula-Gibbs in the race to replace disgraced ex-Rep. Tom DeLay.  Sargent:

  The NRCC isn't investing any serious money in the race for Tom DeLay's seat between Dem Nick Lampson and GOP write-in candidate Shelley Sekula-Gibbs.  "National Republicans were supposed to invest $3 million to $4 million to help Sekula-Gibbs," reports the Associated Press.  "So far, however, she's received just $134,000 from the National Republican Congressional Committee."  Lampson had $2.2 million as of June 30th.  Meanwhile, other GOP House candidates are swimming in cash: The NRCC yesterday dumped a staggering $9.3 million into a bunch of other races.

  Commenter dfx reports from the district:

  This has been a fairly quiet race so far here.  There's plenty of mailings and yard signs for Gibbs around, way more than I've seen for Lampson. ... However, I have seen a few Lampson commercials on television, and none for [Sekula]-Gibbs.  I would expect to see more action in the next week from both of them... I will add this: I work in a fairly conservative industry, and you can sense the mood has soured on the Iraq war.  You'll still find a Freeper here and there, but I've noticed the the social and religious conservatives have been somewhat quiet whenever discussions go political.  They'll need some real energizing to go out and vote in a couple weeks; that's the feeling that I get right now.

  Meanwhile, commenter montag quips, "They don't need to pour a lot of money into TX-22, they have electronic voting.  And I suspect the machines will have a spell check so no one misspells what's her name's name."

[Mike Sheehan]

10/17: Iraq Water Torture

Two weeks ago, many thought the "drip, drip" of the Mark Foley scandal would do in the GOP. And while the scandal has definitely hurt, even righty stalwarts like Fred Barnes are admitting steady bad news from Iraq will probably do in the GOP on 11/7. But where does that leave U.S. policy Nov. 8? As David Weigelargues , any Dem majorities in the House and Senate will depend on Dems who won in conservative districts running "against voter malaise and Iraq war conduct, as opposed to the idea of the Iraq war."

LANDSCAPE: It's Iraq, Stupid

At The Huffington Post, Cenk Uygur looks at recent headlines from Iraq including "161 dead. 83 dead. 53 dead. 16 tortured. 17 decapitated. Shiite doctors dumping the bodies of Sunni patients they have murdered. Burn marks. Executions. Torture chambers. Revenge killings. Family members shot in front of their wives and children." Uygur concludes: "George W. Bush will live in infamy for what he has done in Iraq."

Daily Kos' DemFromCT looks at CNN's latest poll showing only 34% of Americans support the war. DFT writes: "Remember when the election predictors said a month ago that if the discussion is about national security and gas prices, the GOP wins and if it's about Iraq, the GOP loses? The national discussion isn't just about Iraq, it's about how bad things really are in Iraq."

Jonathan Chait at The Plank "had been harboring some doubt" about Dem chances for success until he read Fred Barnes "throw in the towel" in The Weekly Standard. Chait highlights this Barnes sentence, "And it changed the narrative of the campaign from one emphasizing national security, a Republican strength, to one emphasizing Republican malfeasance in Washington and dysfunction in Iraq," and writes: "If we translate that statement, then, it actually means that national security as an abstract proposition is a Republican strength, but national security as it has actually been conducted is a Republican liability."

Following up on his earlier ReasonarticleHit and Run 's David Weigel argues that "if Democrats win power next month, they'll do it on the backs of very conservative candidates." Weigel notes: "Democrats in tight races in Indiana, Ohio, Pennsylvania, and the rest of the swing districts are mostly running against voter malaise and Iraq war conduct, as opposed to the idea of the Iraq war."

Finally, Daily Kos' Georgia10 lauds journalist Jane Arraf for "pushing back against the right-wing assault on the media's coverage of Iraq." Also Iraq Body Count offers their own criticism of the Lancet Iraqi death toll study.

LANDSCAPE II: What Is Instapundit's Place?

Conservative talk show host Rush Limbaughsingled outInstapundit 10/16 for aiding "Drive-By Media Democrats" efforts to "depress and suppress the Republican base." JoeUser.com's Draginol is with Instapundit: "My view is the same as Glenn Reynolds. The Republicans blew it. They became complacent and ignored their constituents. If they lose, I do think they lost because they deserved to lose." Instapundit adds: "I can't be a "RINO" because I've never claimed to be a Republican. I wouldn't mind if the GOP won this time -- but as I said, they don't really deserve it."

Meanwhile, RNC chair Ken Mehlman was busy reassuring righty bloggers including Power Line's Paul Mirengoff that there are four reasons the GOP will "keep control of the Senate and probably the House as well" including:

• First, he and other Republican leaders "expected this" and planned for it.
• Second, the Republicans have a major advantage when it comes to resources. According to Mehlman, it has a $55.8 million cash advantage now, which will translate into very aggressive ad campaigns in the final three weeks.
• Third, the party and its candidates should be able to frame this election as a choice election, not a referendum.
• Finally, Mehlman noted that "tsunami" elections are characterized by one-sided turnout in favor of one party. He doesn't see the Dems benefiting from that this year. In fact, he says, in 36 of 39 Democratic primaries this year turnout was below average. Mehlman said he's always worried about turnout, but does not expect a big Democratic advantage.

National Review Online's Jim Geraghty already looking forward to the post-Hastert era: "The conservative base wants the next crop of GOP leaders to be tougher on illegal immigration; tougher on spending; quitting the pork and earmark addiction cold turkey; ... One way or another, Hastert's out. I suspect that next year, guys like Mike Pence, Jeff Flake and Jack Kingston are going to leading a more conservative House caucus - particularly if the Chris Shayses of the world get knocked out this year.

Finally, Ankle Biting PunditsPatrick Hynes worries that if the GOP does lose "the Religious Right will be blamed by the talking heads who get to decide these things." Hynes continues: "It's not like we're very welcome inside the so-called "big tent" anymore (were we ever, really?). I mean, folks like Ryan Sager and Dick Armey have essentially stated: It's us or them; not exactly a "big tent" sentiment. ... It's a lose-lose for the Religious Right. Either they stay home and get blamed for not helping the Republicans or they turnout in great numbers again, but other voter subgroups stay home, and the Religious Right gets blamed for suppressing other GOP-friendly voters."

CT SEN: Lefty Bloggers Love Schlesinger

MyDD's Matt Stoller and CT Blog were among many to liveblog 10/16's debate between Sen. Joe Lieberman (I), cable exec Ned Lamont (D) and gambler Alan Schlesinger (R). Lefty bloggers with new found love for Schlesinger include:

• Matt Stoller at MyDD: "There is just no question that Alan Schlesinger won this debate, Lamont pretty much held his own, and Lieberman lost. Alan Schlesinger was funny, interesting, and passionate."
• The unofficial Lamont Blog: "General emerging consensus... Ned hit Joe on the issues, Ned looked the most Senatorial of the three, Schlesinger will rise in the polls after this performance."
• firedoglake's Jane Hamsher: "Finally. A Republican with the stones to tell Joe Lieberman to get off his damn lawn. Alan Schlesinger kicked Lieberman's ass for the GOP vote he so critically needs to win, and Lamont gave him no quarter on the Democratic side (and looked very senatorial in the process)."

DailyKos' founder Markos Moulitsas hopes Schlesinger's immigration position will peal away "white, ethnic, blue collar workers" from Lieberman and Hamsher celebrates the return of the "Kiss Float."

After the debate Spazeboy ambushed Lieberman in a staircase asking: "Would you unequivocally caucus with the Democrats?" Lieberman answered: "Oh, come on. I've said that 1200 times." When Spazeboy pressed, Lieberman responded: "Yes. Yes!" Spazeboy then writes: "Senator Lieberman and I were both caught off guard here, but that's no reason to be so pompous and dismissive. He may have answered it 1200 times, but at that point, what difference will it make that I've asked him for the 1201st time?"

Still in CT, Stoller postspics of a Republican Jewish Coalition flier quoting former Dem Dr. Jeff Weinstein "Today's Democratic Party Is Not My Father's Democratic Party."

MO SEN: Coming To Liddy's Rescue?

TPM Cafe's Greg Sargent reports that according to recent FEC filings, the RNC "sank $731,968.29 into negative ads and "research" (read: dirt-digging) against Dem challenger Claire McCaskill." Sargent sees this as another sign "of talk in political circles to the effect that the Republican National Committee is stepping into key Senate races because it doesn't think the NRSC is up to the job of winning them."

MT SEN: No, They're Saying Booooo-urns

After quoting Sen. Conrad Burns' (R) website "Senator Burns has been able to bring in over $2 billion in federal funds to the state since he took office. He has been a champion of a fiscally conservative government..." National Review Online's John Miller can't resist passing along this reader email: "Parading your two billion in pork + "I'm a fiscal conservative" = Loser"

DailyKos' founder Markos Moulitsas also has two MT items up 10/16: one celebrating State Senate Pres. Jon Tester's (D) record breaking fundraising effort this quarter; and another with video of Tester's new ad featuring Gov. Schweitzer gently poking fun at Tester's haircut.

OH SEN: Do Any Bloggers Believe The NYT?

DailyKos' founder Markos Moulitsas finds reports of GOP pull out in OH "about as credible as word that Lieberman had given up on a ground game for the CT Democratic primary. That is, not very credible at all."

Watching CNN, The Plank's Michael Crowley notes "Stuart Rothenberg said talk of the GOP writing off the Ohio Senate race is "just wrong." Talking Points Memo's Josh Marshall does not pass judgment on the veracity of the New York Times story, but he does caution: "A short on Brown v. DeWine. When we say that the RNC has written off Sen. DeWine (R) in Ohio, no one should take that to mean that the race is over."

PA SEN: Environmental Groups For $100, Alex

National Review Online's Alex Charyna highlights a moment from 10/16's Sen. Rick Santorum (R)/Treas. Bob Casey Jr. (D) debate: "Santorum and the panel had stumped Casey a few times with questions, but Bobby Casey actually stumped himself once. In an exchange about environmental group endorsements (League of Conservation Voters and Sierra Club), Mr Casey had claimed that a GOP environmental group had given the Senator a 0% rating. When pressed for the name, he said he couldn't remember! That's the least he could have done!"

TN SEN: Harold Ford, Bone-Tosser

Captain's Quarters notes that despite the fact that "people have derided the Republican efforts to establish tough border security and hard-line policies on illegal immigration as simple election-year rhetoric ... Harold Ford, running for Bill Frist's open seat in Tennessee, has positioned himself to the right of the GOP Senate caucus." CQ concludes: "For a right-wing partisan bone-tosser, immigration suddenly has gained a lot of political luster after the passage of the Secure Fence Act. ... Voters who buy the election-eve conversions of Ford and other Democrats into immigration hawks will be in for a huge surprise. Ford voted against more border agents while in Congress."

VA SEN: Screw Who?

Ex-Navy Sec. James Webb's (D) Netroots Coordinator and Raising Kaine founder Lowell Feld describes the Sen. George Allen (R) campaign as "desperate" and "pathetic" for issuing a press release demanding Webb return $130K to Daily Kos. The release notes that after the mutilation and burning of four American contractors in Fallujah, DailyKos' founder Markos Moulitsas wrote: "I feel nothing over the death of mercenaries ... Screw them."

Feld explains: "But now, the Allen campaign, devoid of any issues or accomplishments to brag about, has resorted to a campaign strategy of attacking a blogger, who they strangely claim is "fringe." Well, if he's "fringe," then why do they spend time attacking him? ... For the record, I totally disagree with the sentiments behind the "screw them" comment, as do most Democrats. ... Meanwhile, I wonder how much money the ALLEN campaign has raised from its "fringe" RIGHT-WING blogs. Have you ever gone to sites like Little Green Footballs, Free Republic, or Michelle Malkin? Does Dick Wadhams really want to have some of the comments from THOSE sites highlighted all over the place?"

Also on Raising Kaine: Feld has pictures from ex-Gov. Mark Warner's campaign stop with Webb in Springfield, VA; PMconnects Allen to Grover Norquist and Big Tobacco; and Ericposts pdf's of "Had Enough" fliers featuring Sen. Barack Obama (D-IL), Rep. Bobby Scott (D-03), and Warner.

On the right, The A-Team has video of Allen's two minute address with Sen. John Warner (R) and the official AllenHQ asks why "the Media" is letting Webb get away with "blatant lies" about college funding, body armor, stock options, and Allen's record on taxes.

OBAMA: Is The Oprah Primary Over Already?

The Huffington Post's Richard Greene argues Sen. Barack Obama's '04 speech at the Dem Conv. "proved that he has what it takes to be a phenomenal President. Just that one speech." Also at HuffPo, Dan Carol "is more than Ok" with an Obama run and notes that Oprah told Larry King two weeks ago that she wanted Obama to run.

KERRY: For Caution And Indecisiveness

TAPPED's Ezra Klein acknowledges that Sen. John Kerry's (D-MA) interview with Bob Woodward was "overdue" but still likes Kerry's "I'll get all the smart people, lock 'em in a room, and not feed 'em till they finish" attitude towards governance." Klein reasons: "Moreover, Kerry's reflections and ideas bespeak a caution that sounds comforting to me. It might create a sort of indecisiveness, hearing from and listening to that many people, but I would vastly prefer an administration in slight awe of the scale of these issues to one dead set on denying their complexity."

MCCAIN: Forthright Hypocrisy Will Be The Frontrunner

Kausfiles notes Sen. John McCain (R-AZ) aide John Weaver's attack on Sen. Hillary Clinton (D-NY) "for trying to have it both ways" on torture and argues: "But of course McCain wants to have it both ways too. He also approves torture in the "ticking time bomb" situation--he just doesn't want to write the exception into the law, arguing instead for a clear standard that "might be violated in extraordinary circumstances." Tediously fastidious legalism or forthright hypocrisy? I'd say it's a close question!"

But the right's MI Cooler looks at "poll after poll" showing McCain likely to be the GOP nominee and writes: "Who is going to nominate Sam Brownback or Mitt Romney in the age of terror? Who is going to say that Huckabee is better than John McCain on foreign issues? The Cooler likes Sam Brownback on social issues, but no one can dispute Senator McCain's national security credentials. As long as we are at war, John McCain will be the frontrunner.

ROMNEY: Wonder What He Means By "Advancing The Foundation Of Family"

Right Angle Blog's Robert Bluey reports MA Gov. Mitt Romney swung through DC 10/16 for a "luncheon speech to nearly 400 fans and admirers who packed a Capitol Hill restaurant to hear his message." RNC chair Ken Mehlman told lunchers there was "no more sought-after speaker than Mitt Romney" among Republicans these days. Romney's agenda included:

• 1) fighting Islamic jihadists
• 2) making sure the U.S. keeps pace with the emerging superpowers in Asia
• 3) battling spending increases in Washington, D.C.
• 4) reducing America's reliance on foreign oil
• 5) advancing cultural issues, such as the sanctity of life and the foundation of family

FOLEY: Excuses Are Like Noses

TPM Muckraker's Paul Kiel is keeping an amusing tally of GOP excuses for cancelling Speaker Denny Hastert (R-IL) and Rep. Tom Reynolds (R-NY) fundraisers.

WELDON: At Least He Didn't Blame Mel Gibson

The Spin's Stephen Morse interviewed Rep. Curt Weldon (R-PA) outside of his Penn Israel Coalition 10/16 campaign stop about the FBI's raid of his daughter's house. In the video: "Weldon alleges that the source of the news about him is Melanie Sloan, a former associate of John Conyers and Charles Schumer. She is currently the executive director of CREW. He also says that people such as Sandy Berger (former head of the NSA) and Mary McCarthy have donated to Sestak's campaign and are working to bring him down as revenge for his criticisms."

National Review Online's Kathryn Jean Lopez reports on one political observer's guess on where GOP optimism was this November: "I think they got taken away in some of those boxes taken out of Curt Weldon's daughter's house yesterday."

THOUGHT OF THE DAY: Ain't Nothing Goin' On But The Rent

In asking MyDD readers for $3k to fund his coverage of CT SEN through election day Matt Stoller writes:

It's an interesting experience to ask for money, because it brings out some very weird tendencies in the progressive movement, many of which I notice within myself. The right doesn't wonder about asking for money; they know that being paid is critical to sustaining a movement. If people can't afford rent, they stop doing what they are doing and find something that allows them to afford rent. Getting used to this principle is important, and as a movement we're slowly starting to.

LEST WE FORGET: As Esquire Goes ...

Kausfiles pokes fun at Bob Geiger's Huffington Post entry titled "Even Esquire Magazine Calls for a Democratic Senate." Kaus snarks: "Wow. When New York City magazine editors start tilting Democratic, you know the GOPs are in trouble."

10/16: Schadenfreude City

There are few things that please the Blogometer more than the Washington Post sports section the morning after a humiliating Redskins loss. For the past two cycles, those on the right who share similar questionable tastes have had the pleasure of feasting on lefty blogger reaction to demoralizing defeats. Now that it looks like the shoe is on the other foot, Schadenfreude-loving lefties don't have to wait 'til Election Day to find righty soul searching. Despite the time between now and Election Day, Instapundit already has a "GOP Pre-Mortum" receiving plenty of comment around the blogosphere. So if you are left-leaning Redskins fan, put down the Post and take solace in the right's coming troubles.

LANDSCAPE: No Time For Losers

Inspired by Power Line's John Hinderaker's admission that the latest polling data showed "a sea of blue, with the Democratic candidate leading in just about every race for every office, nationwide" Instapundit penned "A GOP Pre-Mortum" looking at unforced errors that led to impending defeat:

• The Terri Schiavo affair: The bitterness it aroused, which was substantial, opened a fracture in the GOP coalition: Social-conservatives against the rest.
• The Harriet Miers debacle: Plenty of warning in the blogs that this was a big mistake, but all ignored by the White House and Congressional leadership.
• The Dubai Ports disaster: Here I think that the Administration was on defensible ground from a policy perspective, but its ham-handed approach -- once again ignoring early warnings from the blogs -- turned it into a mess, and cost it major credibility with its national security constituency.
• Immigration: Another unforced error. The national security constituency once again lost faith in the Administration.
• William Jefferson: A Democratic Congressman is caught in a bribery scandal with a freezer full of cash, and Dennis Hastert backs him up, making clear that protection of insider privilege is more important to the Republican leadership in Congress than either party or principle.
• Foleygate: Not much of a scandal in itself, but the last straw for a lot of people.

Instapundit later adds reader opinion that Pres. Bush's "War on Terror" incompetence also has cost him support including:

As part of the conservative 'base,' I am disappointed in the administration for not being MORE agressive in fighting the war...it reminds me of the speech by George C Scott in Patton..."Americans love a winner and will not tolerate a loser"...I think that the Republicans could remain in power if they showed more outward signs of strength in the matters of North Korea, Iran and Iraq. If we were fighting to 'win', I think the average american would back the president and congress.

Many on the right were eager to add to the list:

• Captain's Quarters: "I see these as overblown issues for the most part, and only with immigration does Glenn get to the point. The Republicans in Congress have damaged the enthusiasm of their base because they have dropped the issues that mattered most to it. ... When Bush took office, the base expected the GOP to take off the shackles and really begin to reduce the federal government in significant ways. ... That did not happen."
• Power Line's Paul Mirengoff: "Though Glenn is hardly the only independent-minded voter concerned about the items on his list, I suspect that the party's biggest problems with swing voters have to do with Iraq and maybe Hurricane Katrina."
• RCP Blog's Tom Bevan: "I'm surprised profligate spending isn't on Glenn's list, because I think it points to a broader problem that connects a lot of the dots. Clearly, part of what has been so depressing to the GOP base is that there is a sense that in just 12 short years Republicans have surrendered some of the fundamental principles which swept many into office in the first place."

Not all on the right have given up hope. Townhall's Hugh Hewitt reports Sen. Jim Talent (R-MO) has "separated" from the "gaffe-prone and overmatched McCaskill," Sen. Mike DeWine (R-OH) "is tied with hard left Sherrod Brown," and Sens. Conrad Burns (R-MT) and Rick Santorum (R-PA) "have decisively won key debates." RedState's Moe Lane has similar thoughts.

LANDSCAPE: Taking Their Lead To The Bank

Charlie Cook's description of the current climate as "without question the worst political situation for the GOP since the Watergate disaster in 1974" has left bloggers buzzing. Cook goes on to report: "On a conference call today, James Carville suggested that the Democratic Party should expand beyond just the top targeted races. ... Carville went as far as to suggest Democrats go to the bank and borrow $5 million. If I were them, I'd make it $10 million and put $500,000 each of these 20 districts."

DailyKos' DemFromCT suggests fourth- or fifth-tier Dems should not expect any spigots to open while Talking Points Memo's Josh Marshall asks readers for first hand accounts of second-tier races that are now competitive including: NY-20, OH-02, CA-11, WA-08, CO-04, and NY-19.

Over at The Plank, Eve Fairbanks notes that despite the Foley Dem surge, "ethics in government" remains "at the bottom of voters' concerns going into November." Fairbanks concludes Foley gate was like a festering wound "widely inflaming voter anger over deeper GOP pathologies like deceit and the war in Iraq." The Plank's Jonathan Chait adds: "I'd guess that conservative voters--the majority of whom are sticking with the Republicans -- are simply offering up different reasons to support their party. People often have a whole jumble of reasons for voting the way they do, and when the top reason on the list goes down, the next one just steps up."

CT SEN: We Bet He Has Thought About How Much He Hates Bloggers

Sen. Joe Lieberman's (I) telling "Uh, I haven't thought about that enough to give an answer," response to the Hartford Courant's would America "be better off with [Dems] regaining control of the U.S. House of Representatives" question drew wide lefty blogger attention. Daily Kos' AlisaR notes Paul Krugman opens his 10/16 column with the Lieberman quote and TPM reader DK describes control of the Senate coming down to Lieberman as his "second biggest dread about the November election." Atrios even makes Lieberman his "Wanker of the Day" and writes: "We've tried to warn all the big guns in Washington that Joe no longer thinks of himself as a Democrat, but they won't listen." The unofficial Lamont Blog writes: "One of two explanations is logically possible (and they're not mutually exclusive): (1) Lieberman is feeding Connecticut voters a line of B.S. because he doesn't want to offend the Republican votes he desperately needs to win, or (2) He is planning on caucusing with Republicans, and is feeding voters B.S. when he tells them he isn't."

Back in CT, Matt Stoller at MyDD reviews cable exec Ned Lamont's (D) new ad: "One of Lieberman's strongest assets is his ability to lie while seeming like he has integrity. This ad catches him clearly breaking his promise to voters." And Arianna Huffington at The Huffington Post blames "Democratic insiders Howard Wolfson, Doug Schoen, and Stephanie Cutter for crushing the "once-promising" Lamont with their "poll-driven culture."

MO SEN: It's A Wonder The Talent Campaign Hasn't Put Their Name On This Attack

Under the header "Slums, drugs, and spousal abuse" RedState's Jeff Emanuel posts video of Aud. Claire McCaskill (D) introducing her second husband Joseph Shepard at a campaign event and goes on to detail past domestic violence in "slum lord" Shepard's life.

Elsewhere, Gateway Pundit notes that the McCaskill campaign pulled an ad featuring an Iraqi war veteran claiming he could not get health care after Kansas City's KMBC found "It was a bogus ad!"

OH SEN: Is The Firewall Really On Fire?

RCP Blog's Jay Cost raises doubts about 10/16's New York Timesarticle claiming the GOP is pulling out of OH. Cost writes: "The Washington Post on Friday reported that the GOP was making Ohio part of its Waterloo-type stand. So - DeWine has gone from fire wall to down-in-flames in less than a week? It was so important to hold his seat that the RNC was stepping on the NRSC's toes -- and now they are pulling up stakes?"

Kausfiles also isn't buying: "It's hard to believe that even World Cocooning Champion Nagourney would get such a big thing wrong, but Cost raises suspicions. For one, there is a jarring difference in tone between Nagourney's sensational lede and the more measured paragraphs buried in the piece ... As Cost notes, reallocating money away from a candidate who already has "a sizable financial advantage" isn't the same as writing him off."

PA SEN: Matthews The Lawn Sign

RedState's pennpatriot was turned off by Sen. Rick Santorum's (R) performance in 10/13's debate. RCP Blog's Tom Bevan is less sure Santorum aggressive style hurt him, but still concludes: "Three weeks out from the election Santorum is an incumbent who is polling between 36-41%. Those numbers indicate fundamental problems with his candidacy which are unlikely to be remedied by a single debate performance - no matter how good it might have been strategically." National Review Online's Kathryn Jean Lopez watched only a few minutes of the Hardball performance but still wrote: "I tell you Chris Matthews is almost at the lawn-sign point for Santorum."

TN SEN: George Stephanopoulos, Playa Hata

National Review Online's Byron York highlights this exchange from Rep. Harold Ford (R-09) 10/15 This Week appearance:

ANNOUNCER: Fair enough. So what kind of man parties with Playboy playmates in lingerie, then films political ads from a church pew?STEPHANOPOULOS : Churchgoer by day, playboy at night? FORD : I've never been to a Playboy mansion party.

York posts the GOP's response noting that the Ford-Playboy party was in Jacksonville for the Super Bowl, not in California which has the Playboy mansion.

Instapundit doesn't see the issue gaining traction: "Likewise, charging someone with partying with Playboy bunnies seems like pretty weak tea. ... Few people will really be offended by that, and other voters will find partying with bunnies to be amusing and perhaps even appealing."

VA SEN: James Webb Loves His Family

The official AllenHQ highlights ex-Navy Sec. James Webb's (D) responses to recent Connections Newspapers quesionnaire, including his failure to mention his three daughters after mentioning his wife and son. Webb's Netroots's Coordinator and Raising Kaine founder Lowell Feld calls the item a "New Low" and posts many pictures of Webb and daughters.

AllenHQ also lists the times and stations Sen. George Allen's (R) 2nd statewide address.

Over at Raising Kaine,Roadette posts video of Webb campaigning in Washington, VA and reports: "Ben "Cooter" Jones had his say too!" At MyDD, Matt Stoller looks at the Washington Post's latest poll showing Allen up 49%-47% and notes: "Virginia seems to be two separate states, a mid-Atlantic liberal state composed of DC and its suburbs, and an Appalachian culturally conservative region which flows into the upper South. ... len is leading Webb by 10 points everywhere but Northern Virginia, where Webb is beating Allen 56-42. ... It's ironic that Mudcat Saunders, the consultant who preaches Southern red state culture, is heavily involved with a campaign reliant on a liberal voting bloc to counterbalance his NASCAR voters."

DailyKos' founder Markos Moulitsas defends Saunders: "Saunders job isn't to win the state outside of NoVa. It's to limit Webb's losses. That's the way Warner and Kaine both won the governorships in the state. NoVa can carry the day for Dems (GOTV!), but only if Democrats can keep the rest of the state close."

Finally, at Political Bite, David Weigel reports that America's love for winners may resurrect Allens' '08 hopes should he defeat Webb: "At the end of the day, D.C. reporters love winners. Even some Republicans think that Allen can turn the soft lighting back on his campaign if he convincingly fends off James Webb. "Let's assume for a moment he wins this Senate race by a decent margin," says Craig Shirley, a Republican consultant ... "Then the story becomes 'Allen's resurrection. How did he win Virginia and how does that translate to 2008?"

CLINTON: Rutgers Is 6-0!

Under the header "Senator Clinton's Emerging Competence Problem" MyDD's Matt Stoller looks at the dust up between Sens. Hillary Clinton (D-NY) and John McCain (R-AZ) over the anonymously Maureen Dowd quoted HRC advisor describing McCain as "looking similar to the way he did on those captive tapes from Hanoi, where he recited the names of his crew mates" and writes:

"And this is the problem with candidates who have no overall rationale for their political work, the technocratic centrists who believe in their own abilities and very little else. They have no message or direction, and resort to vicious pointless attacks in lieu of actual effective argument. It's a structural problem, not an issue of political management."

National Review Online's Byron York forwards inside info form McCain adviser John Weaver: "Senator Clinton did call John while he was entering the Navy/Rutgers game today [Saturday] and apologized. He accepted her apology. We do as well, though like President Reagan, we will trust, but verify. She is correct in saying that the comment was reprehensible."

GIULIANI: Issue Critical

The Stranger remembers ex-NY mayor Rudy Giuliani once saying: "Someone who now voted to roll back the assault-weapons ban would really be demonstrating that special-interest politics mean more to them than life-or-death issues." The Stranger then fast forwards to a Giuliani appearance for ex-Safeco CEO Mike McGavick (R) where Giuliani said, ""I don't think [the assault-weapons ban] is one of the most critical issues right now. ... The assault-weapons ban is something I supported in the past." The Stranger concludes: "A lack of conviction won't protect us against the terrorist threat either, and Giuliani certainly abandoned his at McGavick's fundraiser."

BLOGGERS VS. BELTWAY: Course Stayed

At The Huffington PostTaylor Marsh takes "DC Democratic strategist" Laura Schwartz to task for not sufficiently supporting Air America Radio. Marsh writes: "Laura Schwartz cares about only one thing: lining her own pockets and padding her resume with another guest spot on Fox. She doesn't care or have a clue how hard the people in radio, at AAR and beyond, work. Evidently, she also wants to sabotage our efforts as well." Also at The Huffington PostSteve Young criticizes Air America for "staying the course."

THOUGHT OF THE DAY: We're Pretty Sure Some Civilians Died In The Civil War Too

TPM Cafe's Reed Hundt puts the Lancet study in perspective:

Although the Administration denies that Iraq is in a civil war, we can be confident that everyone in our government agrees that the United States was embroiled in a civil war from 1861 to 1865. Historians are not of one mind on the butcher's bill, but most would find reasonable a total of Union dead, 360,000; Confederate dead, 260,000. Given the American population of 31 million in 1860, that was about 2% of the population killed by battle or illness contracted during military service. By comparison, the Lancet study sets the number dead due to the current complicated conflicts in Iraq at a little more than 2% of the Iraq population. And, of course, the killing in Iraq continues.

LEST WE FORGET: The End OF The World As We Know It

After grabbing a National Review Online link, The Washington Monthly's Kevin Drum notes the character string in the post's address suggests the Corner's software "is robust enough to produce 62^43 different combinations, or just a bit over 10^77 possible blog posts. That's roughly enough for one blog post every microsecond right up through the heat death of the universe. Credit where it's due: conservatives sure do plan ahead, don't they?

Blogometer Extra

Iraq: Dannatt All To Hell

  Gen. Sir Richard Dannatt "drops a bomb," as Tom Bevan at Real Clear Politics puts it, telling the Daily Mail that it was time for British troops to come home from Iraq.  From the article:

  General Sir Richard Dannatt said troops should come home within two years - flatly contradicting the Prime Minister's policy that the military will stay "as long as it takes".  In unprecedented comments he warned that the Army could 'break' if British soldiers are kept too long in Iraq.  "I want an Army in five years time and 10 years time.  Don't let's break it on this one.  Let's keep an eye on time," he said.

  Downing Street was aghast at the general's remarks, though in public it offered "full support".

  ...Sir Richard warned that the continuing presence of British troops "exacerbates the security problems" in Iraq and added that a "moral and spiritual vacuum" has opened up in British society, which is allowing Muslim extremists to undermine "our accepted way of life."

  His views have sent shockwaves through Government.  They are a total repudiation of the Prime Minister, who has repeatedly insisted that British presence in Iraq is morally right and has had no effect on our domestic security.

  Sir Richard, who took up his post earlier this year, warned that "our presence in Iraq exacerbates" the "difficulties we are facing around the world."  He lambasts Tony Blair's desire to forge a "liberal democracy" in Iraq as a "naive" failure and he warns that "whatever consent we may have had in the first place" from the Iraqi people "has largely turned to intolerance."

  "This is not some leftwing Labour backbencher," Bevan writes at RCP.  "It's the head of the army of our closest and most loyal ally in Iraq saying we should 'get out sometime soon.'  How much this will affect the debate in the U.S. is hard to say, but it's certainly difficult to characterize Dannatt as a 'cut and run' type."

  It's "huge," Rod Dreher of Crunchy Con asserts, "not only in terms of military strategy, but because of the challenge it represents to the British government's authority.  The head of the British Army is in open rebellion against the government's Iraq policy.  ...Dannatt says that the Brits have to leave Iraq because they're making the security situation worse.  They are no longer wanted there..."

  Ron Beasley at Middle Earth Journal concurs with the aforequoted.  "The coalition of the willing may be down to one," he writes, adding, "[H]is views will send shockwaves through (more than one) Government."  Same with Donklephant: "Looks like Britain has at least one General that thinks Iraq is going downhill too."

  Aside from those pessimistic views, typical as the shock and awe over the British general's assessment ran their course in the blogosphere, a few focused on the situation from a political context.  Tim at The Road to Surfdom:

  The [BBC] article speculates on why he is speaking out and suggests it might be a “very public warning to the next prime minister.”  This strikes me as about right and just underlines what a dead duck Tony Blair now is.  It also suggests that UK involvement in the war has largely been because of Tony Blair and that many people, officials, opposed it...

  Joe Gandelman at The Moderate Voice inevitably tied Dannatt's negative assessment to American politics: "If there is a sense of deja vu when you read these words, there should be: they seem akin to some of the words of Rep. Jack Murtha, who was later branded as a 'coward' by one GOPer."

  Then there's Washington Monthly's Kevin Drum, writing at Political Animal, who not only was unsurprised, but he had anticipated Dannatt's words:

  Remember a couple of weeks ago I posted an item about a secret memo suggesting that the Chief of Staff of the British Army wanted to get out of Iraq?  The only question I had was: which Chief of Staff did the memo refer to?  The previous guy who retired at the end of August, or the new guy who took over from him?  Today the Daily Mail answers my question: it's the new guy. ... I wonder if there are any American generals who agree with him?

  Clearly feeling some heat from above, below, and all sides, Dannatt later was "subtly trying to back-pedal," as The Carpetbagger Report described it, in later interviews.  From Reuters, via MSNBC:

  He insisted he had said “nothing new or noteworthy” in his interview with the tabloid and was just repeating policy.  “It was never my intention to have this hoo ha, which people have thoroughly enjoyed overnight, trying to suggest there is a chasm between myself and the prime minister,” he told the British Broadcasting Corp.

  "No, of course not," writes Carpetbagger with a roll of the eyes.  "All Dannatt said was that troop presence in Iraq is making matters worse in Iraq and tearing at the social fabric of Britain, and that troop withdrawal needs to get underway.  Tony Blair says the exact opposite on all of these points.  Who said anything about a 'chasm'?"  Reuters continues:

  In his subsequent radio and television interviews, he said he was not suggesting an immediate withdrawal.  “I’m a soldier.  We don’t do surrender.  We don’t pull down white flags.  We’re going to see this through,” he said.  “But we’ve got to get on with it.  We can’t be there for years and years,” Dannatt said.

  "I don't know if Dannatt will be forced to resign, or perhaps retract his comments altogether, but I have to appreciate the fact that he made the remarks while still in a leadership role,"  Carpetbagger says.  "In the U.S. model, we get frank, candid admissions like these all the time — just as soon as the officials leave government and become private citizens."

  James Joyner at Outside the Beltway is down with that, quipping, "[W]e have to speculate as to what sitting American generals think about the issue because they have the professional discipline to keep their mouths shut."  Of Dannatt, Joyner writes, "Blair simply has to fire him."

  Finally, Digby at Hullabaloo simply can't resist a sarcastic dig himself, calling Dannatt a "Scone Eating Surrender General."  But "lucky for us," Digby wraps, "the president of the United States is looking forward to listening to Jimmy Baker's secret plan to end the war, so this isn't an issue for us."

[Mike Sheehan]

Blogometer Extra

WH '08 Distant Early Warnering

  So the once-digitally-rendered Democratic ex-governor of Virginia, Mark Warner, has bowed out of the 2008 presidential race to "spend more time with his family," as he told the press.  No, he really means it.

  Bloggers clamored to give their take on this early turn of events in the '08 race.  Why the quick exit?  Who benefits?  Who loses?

  Steve Clemons at The Washington Note is disappointed, as "Warner would have given any Senate-based challenger for the ... nomination a real fight."  Commenter km4 disagreed; "[I]t's not a disappointment.  ...Warner was a great governor but he's not presidential material."

  Markos Moulitsas at Daily Kos feels Warner was honest about his decision.  "[B]ottom line is that he realized that he wouldn't see his children for the next 10 years, and decided that it wasn't worth it for him."  Kos does think that Warner isn't done with politics; "[H]e would be considered a shoo-in for the governorship in 2009 if he chooses that route."  Who wins with the loss of Warner?  Kos:

  John Edwards, already the frontrunner in my opinion, loses the only serious southern opponent.  Already strong in Iowa and Nevada, this will make him the prohibitive favorite in the fourth contest in South Carolina.  If he wins the first three out of four, he's looking pretty good.

  Bill Richardson becomes the only serious candidate in the race who is a governor, making it easier for him to distinguish himself from the crowd.

  As for Hillary, this is a double-edged sword.  She loses the one candidate who probably could've gone toe to toe with her on the money front, and the one who had easily built up the most innovative, competent campaign team.  But, Hillary will do best if the field remains cluttered with a ton of men...

  Finally, this opens up a hole in the field for another compelling "outsider" not tainted with being part of the DC establishment.  Right now, the only serious outsider in the race is Wesley Clark.

  AMERICAblog's John Aravosis, unlike Kos, isn't buying the touching departure from Warner.  "I'm still unconvinced as to why he's pulling out.  He didn't think before that a presidential run, and being president, would take time away from his family?  Hmmm...."

  Over at Instapundit, Glenn Reynolds kinda saw it coming:

  We were supposed to do a podcast interview with him and the date kept slipping -- I don't know if that means that he's been uncertain about running for a while or not.  When I talked to him on the phone in June he said he wasn't sure if he was running, but I took that with a grain of salt -- they all say that -- but I guess he really wasn't sure.  A politician who tells the truth?  No wonder he's bowing out....

  Andrew Sullivan at The Daily Dish wasn't surprised, either: "His inexperience in foreign affairs made his candidacy a non-starter, to my mind.  So now we have the big guns: Gore, Clinton, Edwards, Kerry."

  Some see Warner's exit in a larger context, like Stirling Newberry writing at TPMCafe.  He blames, in an ironic way, Bill Clinton:

  [A]s important as the crumbling of Rove, is the crumbling of the conservative Democratic thesis of governmental minimalism and merely maintaining New Deal and a few Great Society programs.  One of the first casualties is Mark Warner's bid for the Presidency.  I ribbed Warner sometime ago about his chances, and he is a sincere and smart guy.  However, without a maximalist agenda - a demand on society, there is no reason why any governmental minimalist should vote for anyone but Hillary Clinton.  Clintonism is collapsing back from whence it came, in no small part because Hillary and Bill Clinton - as a team - were the only people who were smart enough, and saavy enough, to make it really work.  There aren't many Rhodes Scholars who are as smooth as Elvis, married to Fortune 500 quality executive talent.

  John Podhoretz too has an interesting take on the Warner departure, tying the shaky Warner hype to geography of all things.  He writes at National Review's The Corner:

  I've always wondered ... whether the excitement over the Virginians derives entirely from their proximity to Washington.  Were Allen a senator from, say, Nebraska, would he ever have generated such inside-the-Beltway blather?  And yes, Warner did well winning in Virginia — but you never hear similar talk about Phil Bredesen, the Democratic governor of Tennessee, who has prevailed and succeeded under more difficult partisan circumstances than Warner.  Bredesen isn't a charismatic guy, so maybe that's understandable, but Warner isn't exactly JFK either and mostly seemed to be a thrilling possibility for Democrats because he has so much of his own money.

  Wonkette, in its typical sardonic style, wants dirt:

  He’s succeeded in impressing plenty of movers and shakers, but they were mostly internet-based movers and shakers, who count for only 3/5ths of the real thing.  Still, to announce in late ‘06 that you won’t be running in ‘08, when you’ve already begun amassing your warchest and winning over opinion leaders, suggests something quite deliciously awry.  What is it?  Remember: he’s a Virginia politician, so he’s probably got a history of racism, sexism, and making fun of kids with Down Syndrome.

  Sisyphus rues that Warner didn't run for the Senate instead: "Given Warner's popularity and the buffoonery of George Allen, the seat would have been his for the taking."  He also believes Sen. Evan Bayh is "likely the beneficiary of Warner's exit," as does Chris Cillizza at the Washington Post's The Fix:

  Bayh and Warner shared much of the same ideological territory -- moderate, consensus builders elected in red states.  After helping Gov. Tim Kaine (D) win the governorship in 2005, Warner became the "it" boy of national politics -- the candidate seen as most likely to emerge as the alternative to New York Sen. Hillary Rodham Clinton (D).

  Warner's ascent came at the expense of Bayh, who found much of the air sucked out of his candidacy. 
No longer.  Party insiders say that there was a major behind-the-scenes fight for donors and activists between Bayh and Warner.

  The other obvious winner from Warner's decision not to run is former North Carolina Sen. John Edwards.  Edwards and Warner were seen as occupying the tier just below that of Clinton -- the two candidates given the best chance of dethroning her for the nomination.

  Clinton, too, gets some residual benefit from Warner's decision simply because a serious contender for the anti-Hillary mantle has been removed.  The more it looks as though Clinton is a lock for the nomination, the closer to a look she will actually be.  Perception creates reality in politics.

[Mike Sheehan]

10/13: Better Late Than Never

News of ex-VA Gov. Mark Warner's (D) decision not to pursue WH '08 dominated the blogosphere 10/12. Early returns show John Edwards to be the chief beneficiary. With that said, the Blogometer is pleased to officially unveil "The Hotline's Blog Directory." Cataloging every relevant blog would be an endless task, but we have put together short entries for the top 50 most trafficked blogs, which can be found alphabetically and by traffic rank. So please, look around, bookmark the page as a future resource. And yes, we do plan to expand the directory in the future.

WARNER: On The Plus Side, Jerome Armstrong's Now Available

Plenty of blogosphere winner/loser analysis on ex-VA Gov. Mark Warner's decision not to run in '08. John Edwards seemed to be the consensus winner:

• TAPPED's Harold Meyerson: "John Edwards, by contrast, has seen the opportunities presented by Hillary's centrism, and in 2005, he took 'em. He repudiated his vote authorizing the war, as Hillary has not. He has focused on the casualties of the new economy -- not just the poor, but the wage-stagnated middle class -- and proposed a range of policy directions that go well beyond applied Rubinism."
• DailyKos' founder Markos Moulitsas: "The biggest winner of the 2008 field? There are several. John Edwards, already the frontrunner in my opinion, loses the only serious southern opponent. Already strong in Iowa and Nevada, this will make him the prohibitive favorite in the fourth contest in South Carolina. If he wins the first three out of four, he's looking pretty good."
• MyDD's Chris Bowers: "If I had to guess, the person most helped by this decision will be John Edwards. But, like I said, that is only a guess."

Others receiving votes:

• The Plank's Michael Crowley: "Like Warner, Bayh has been positioning himself as a sensible red state moderate who can transcend partisanship. And like Warner, Bayh has been working to introduce himself to national Democrats who don't know much about him. Until now, Warner had been making that difficult for Bayh, hogging the media's attention and the buzz within DC Democratic circles. Now I suspect Bayh is about to have his own moment in the spotlight."
• TAPPED's Tom Schaller: "Who is the big winner in all of this? Al Gore, because the Hillary-alternative crowd now has one fewer choices on the menu. John Edwards is still there, too, of course. If Gore is smart he'll invite Edwards down to Tennessee and ask him to put together a Democratic "greatest hits" ticket from 2000 and 2004: The better of the two presidential candidates and the better of the two veep running mates."
• Markos: "Bill Richardson becomes the only serious candidate in the race who is a governor, making it easier for him to distinguish himself from the crowd."

CLINTON: What's With All The Instapundit HRC Love?

TAPPED's Charles P. Pierce describes the "internal fight between people who believe that Bill Clinton was the template for Democratic success, and people who believe ... that Clintonism has proven to be less a governing philosophy than a cult of personality" as "the presiding dynamic of the next two election cycles." Pierce handicaps: "If the Democrats don't capture either house of Congress this time around, the Clinton side will come back with a vengeance. If the Democrats do manage to gain a working majority in either house, some very famous TV pundits are going to find that their phone calls don't get returned."

Meanwhile, on the right, Instapundit has two Sen. Hillary Clinton (D-NY) posts up. One applauding her endorsement of an "Iraqi oil fund" and another linking to examination of her position torture.

FEINGOLD: Wonder Who Pierce Is Pulling For In That Clintonism-As-Cult-Of-Personality Fight?

Charles P. Pierce at TAPPED applauds Sen. Russ Feingold's (D-WI) 10/12 Air America Morning Zoo appearance for "talking about how the Democratic senatorial caucus talks big in public, and then folds in private, usually on the advice of consultants "with connections to the previous Democratic administration."

MCCAIN: No Midnight Toker

National Review Online's Kathryn Jean Lopez hits Sen. John McCain (R-AZ) for talking "about the coolness of the Eagles when it was actually the Steve Miller Band playing" on Laura Ingraham's show 10/12. Lopez comments: "But for anyone who was left with any doubt: I think that John McCain doing Laura's show finally is as clear an indication as you're going to get for a bit he's running for president."

Unable to resist a second dig, Lopez later links to a transcript of Rush Limbaugh criticizing McCain for calling pro-immigration enforcement GOPers "nativists" and writes: "If McCain is in full-on courting conservatives mode, he was lucky Laura gave him airtime."

LANDSCAPE: The Phenomenal Harold Ickes

Netroots heavy hitters DailyKos' founder Markos Moulitsas and MyDD's Chris Bowers both were excited by Constituent Dynamics latest robo poll numbers on House races. Bowers writes: "Based on 63 polls of 48 districts of 1,000 likely voters each, they will show Democrats currently ahead in the House by 19 seats, 224-205, or the exact, 19-seat margin of the Republican Majority after the 2002 elections." Markos was more cautious: "Quick analysis? 1) I think this is too optimistic for the Dems, but encouraging, and 2) even if spot on, most of those leads are tiny. At the end of the day, most of these races are tight, and will be ultimately decided by the ground game." Kausfiles chips in with a sports analogy: "First impression: Grim for the GOPs, but if it were a ballgame you wouldn't head for your car."

Over at TPM CafeMatt Corley counts up all the House race rankings CQ and Charlie Cook changed post Foleygate. Their totals: "29 races have shifted favorably for Dems since the Foley scandal first hit. Only one has shifted in favor of the GOP."

Also at MyDD, Chris Bowers notes that according to Pollster.com's five-poll averages from the most competitive 13 Senate races "for the first time ever Democrats now hold leads in enough Senate races to take narrow control." Bowers writes: "If these polls accurately reflected the final results, that would make the Senate 49-49-2, Depending on what Lieberman does, that would be enough for a Democratic majority, but not quite enough for Democratic control."

Markos posts video of Harold Ickes' September Fund's new ad and writes: "their first ad is good. Really, really good. Phenomenal, in fact. ... This ad will be aired on CNN in about a dozen congressional districts. They did a bunch of ads, tested them in suburban/exurban Philly and Columbus, and this one topped them all amongst infrequent Democratic voters and swing voters."

LANDSCAPE II: Stop Whining And Get Busy

RCP Blog's Tom Bevan rounds up polling and MSM coverage from three "big Senate debates"10/12. RedState's Leon Wolf looks at recent polling headlines and notes "there's a mighty wide gulf between losing 7 seats and losing 30 seats." Wolf then examines "four Congressional Districts in Eastern Pennsylvania" that "stand out as a bellwether for the rest of the country." Wolf writes: "If, on election night, we manage to keep three of the four seats, I'll feel good about keeping the majority. If we only keep two, I'll start being nervous. And if we lose three or all four, I'll start feeling doomed." Wizbang's Lorie Byrd wants none of the doom and gloom. Under the header "Stop Whining And Get Busy" she writes: "Look at the examples of George Allen and Joe Lieberman. There is a month to go and although the Foley scandal slowed the momentum Republican candidates were experiencing, it did not determine the election unless you let it."

CT SEN: Just Another Contest In A Busy Campaign Season

MyDD's Matt Stoller has video of Sen. Joe Lieberman's (I) new ad attacking cable exec Ned Lamont (D): "It's a very good ad, though the claims are simply not true. Lamont didn't lay off 68% of his employees, and he didn't pay himself $546,000 that year. And none of that was reported in the New York Times."

The Plank's Jason Zengerle looks at recent polls and analysis of the race and writes: "it's worth re-reading the piece Ryan Lizza wrote the morning after Lamont beat Lieberman in the Democratic primary. As Ryan wrote at the time, it's now clear that Lamont made a terrible mistake not going for Lieberman's jugular in his primary victory speech; and, as Ryan predicted, the general election has indeed turned into "just another contest in a busy campaign season."

TRex at firedoglake comments on lieberman spokesman Dan Gerstein's 10/12 Young Turks radio show appearance and the official Lamont Blog highlights differences between Lieberman's latest Iraq statements and those from surrogates earlier,

MD SEN: Who Knew Michael Steele Even Knew Bush?

Under the header "The standard bearer of these convictions is George W. Bush" DailyKos' founder Markos Moulitsas posts video of "a typical attack campaign ad. Nothing special, until the punch line. It's brilliant.

MO SEN: Why Does James Talent Hate The Troops?

Fired Up Missouri looks at Sen. James Talent's (R) campaign push back against an Iraq war vet featured in a Aud. Claire McCaskill (D) ad claiming Talent votes prevented him from getting prompt medical care. FUM writes: "I support Josh. I'll be calling Jim Talent's office first thing tomorrow morning, and I encourage anyone who values the commitment and sacrifice of our military veterans to do the same."

MT SEN: No, They're Saying Booooo-urns

National Review Online's Kathryn Jean Lopez regrets missing Grey's Anatomy to see Sen. Conrad Burns (R) debate state Senate Pres. Jon Tester (D): "I resent the bad Republican candidates (Burns) for tainting the good ones (Santorum)."

PA SEN: Apparently Santorum's Italian

Unable to put down the remote, National Review Online's Kathryn Jean Lopez has many takes on Sen. Rick Santorum's (R) debate performance 10/12 including: "I'll stop soon...but before I do...Casey really exudes "I'm-not-going-to-say-anything-of-substance-but-damn-am-I-proud-of-myself." In contrast, Santorum's "I'm a fighter...but I'm an Italian kid from a Steel town, what do you expect" makes him likable and it's honest. Santorum won this debate and I just hope Keystone folks were watching. I don't blame Casey for being so hesitant to debate - this one was no contest."

VA SEN: Who Loves Women More?

Ex-Navy Sec. James Webb's (D) Netroots Coordinator and Raising Kaine founder Lowell Feld has a post linking Sen. George Allen (R) to Abramoff-Linked "Non-Profits" named in Sen. Chuck Grassley (R-IA) report and another item on Citizens for Tax Justice finding "99% of Americans Are Net Losers Under" the "BushAllen" tax cuts.

On the right, the official AllenHQ promotes Allen's Club For Growth endorsement and video of a new ad featuring Susan Allen. An unimpressed Kathryn Jean Lopezwrites : "I Hate Being in D.C. ... because whenever I am near a TV or by a mailbox I wind up encountering Allen and Webb trying to out-feminist one another."

FOLEY: Trading Emotional Spaces

Continuing the growing lefty blogger "we're not winning just because of Foley" meme, Talking Points Memo's Josh Marshall quotes from reader email:

Here's the thing about the Foley scandal: it gives people space to change their minds about things. That's what Foley has done--provided an emotional space within which people can reevaluate their views without having to question themselves or their previous beliefs too deeply.

Marshall adds: "In itself, Foleygate isn't going to drive many people's votes. And even fewer will admit that it has in polls. But I think Foley has provided a collective gut-check moment for the country, when perhaps a critical portion of the country has said, Enough. it's not about Foley. It's really about everything that has come before."

Daily Kos' DemFromCT has similar thoughts: "By itself, it wouldn't do much except for Foley's old district, Tom Reynolds' in NY, and in a handful of others. But taken in context with negative intangibles about the GOP (primarily Iraq, but also fiscal irresponsibility), Foley was and is a crystallizer for any still out there who haven't made up their mind (and, of course, keeping the focus away from what Bush and the GOP wants to talk about is a bonus)."

Marshall also looks atGallup's survey and writes: "So "white frequent churchgoers" should be -- and through most of my adult life -- have been the sweet spot of the electorate for the Republican party. ... Yet, according to this latest Gallup survey, Republicans are only coming in even with this group. If that number is even close to on the mark and remains so for the next four weeks you can be next to certain that the Democrats will blow the Republicans out in the House and very likely win back control of the senate too. ... is it really all Foley?"

In new Foley developments, The Plank's Ryan Lizza reports that Karl Rove "twisted Foley's arm" to get him to run in '06. Kausfiles doesn't see much of a story there: "Logically, promising "enhanced success" if you do X might be little different than promising diminished success if you don't do X. But on the thuggishness scale, there's a big difference. It was Rove's job, after all, to convince popular incumbents to run for reelection."

In other Foley news, Marshall examines MSM coverage of Kirk Fordham's 10/12 testimony, MyDD's Jonathan Singer notes Speaker Denny Hastert (R-IL) is "barely cracking 50 percent" in his own race, and Media Matters debunks 12 Foley scandal "myths" including:

• Democrats and their allies orchestrated the Foley scandal as a political dirty trick
• Conservative Evangelical Voters are Particularly Outraged by Foley Scandal
• CREW Withheld Emails and Other Information From FBI, Congressional Leaders

BLOGGERS VS. MSM: The IRS Has More Than Some Awful Rules

RCP Blog's Jed Babbin attacks "the NYT, WaPo and LA Times, the news directors of CBS, ABC and NBC" for ignoring Sen. Harry Reid's (D-NV) hiding his interest in a land deal with a former casino lawyer from the Senate. Townhall's Hugh Hewitt gets help from a CPA to explain the scandal:

Harry Reid's transaction was done, obviously, to hide his ownership in the underlying land. ... I only caught a piece of the segment on this, but it sounded like he received his cash back almost immediately. This is a bad fact if so. The IRS has some really awful rules to recharacterize this as a sale transaction if he received a cash distribution that, when looked together with the contribution of the land, is more properly characterized as a sale of the property.

Captain's Quarters is also on the case tying in Reid's son Rory Reid and Jay Brown.

BLOGGERS VS. BLOGGERS: Swinging Libertarians

Prompted by DailyKos' founder Markos Moulitsas' CATO essay The Case For The Libertarian Democrat and CATO's new study "The Libertarian Vote" showing a 9-14 percent of the population libertarian swing vote lefty bloggers are examining whether libertarians can be brought into the Dem fold. Short answer: no.

• The Washington Monthly's Kevin Drum: "I just don't see it. When it comes to social policies, it's true that liberals are more closely aligned than conservatives to libertarian principles. Libertarians may say they favor liberal social policies - and they do - but when push comes to shove most of them will toss the social stuff overboard in a heartbeat in favor of a dedication to economic libertarianism. What really gets their hearts pounding is big government and regulation of the free market. They're against 'em. And let's face it: Democrats just can't credibly claim to be on their side."
• Matthew Yglesias: "I find this pretty unconvincing. The trouble is that the poll question they're basing their work on are incredibly generic. ... America is famous, however, for having voters who want "small government" but don't actually want to shrink any major government programs. Lots of people may think the government "does too much." Cutting Social Security benefits, however, is very unpopular. So is cutting defense spending. The number of people who want to cut both is actually quite small.
• The Washington Monthly's Avi Klein: "The idea of a committed libertarian Democrat, on the other hand, seems absurd -- the national party (for good reason) is committed to higher taxes and bigger government, and libertarians vote their pocketbook. But on issues of privacy and personal choice, the Democrats may be able to make some inroads. And this brings us back to where we started: a small but significant bloc of voters just aching to be wooed."
• TAPPED's Ezra Klein: "But moving to dominate one interest group necessarily means shifting away from others. To own libertarians, for instance, Democrats would have to abandon, well, everyone else. The mark of an important swing group now isn't their size -- almost everyone is big enough to throw a presidential race -- it's their attractability. And if the term libertarian has any meaning at all -- and I think, in this report, it basically doesn't -- they're not aligning themselves with the relatively-statist Democratic Party anytime soon."

THOUGHT OF THE DAY: Officially Unpopular Everywhere

Sirotablog links to an The Institute for Southern Study poll that concludes: "Despite strong early support for the Iraq war in the South, the region's opposition to the war now matches national levels -- and by some measures frustration is higher in the South than elsewhere in the country."

LEST WE FORGET: Gary Condits Of The World Unite!

Slate's Dear Prudence fields a tough issue:

Dear Prudence, An individual with the same name as mine has recently been in the news. A lot. For some not very nice things. It's not simply the supposedly "just joking" jibes from friends and co-workers I'm enduring. I'm not looking forward to going through the rest of my life guilty by association. Besides growing rhino skin or changing my name, how do I deal with this, other than repeating over and over that I am ... -Not That Mark Foley

Dear Congressman I mean, Dear Not, Yes, you're in for a siege of "Hey, don't ask my son for his e-mail address!" jokes, but you're probably looking at weeks or possibly months, not a lifetime of this. In response, you can smile wanly and sigh, "I haven't heard that one in about 20 minutes," as you wait for the next scandal to take the congressman off the front pages and out of people's minds. If new acquaintances from work or elsewhere inquire as to whether you used to represent Palm Beach, just say, "No, fortunately, we're not related." It's true there are some names that never lose their power to evoke disgrace-it's good not to be named Fatty Arbuckle or Benedict Arnold. But Rep. Dan Crane was once the scandal du jour for having sex with a female page. I'm sure the other Dan Cranes of the world no longer have to explain they're not "that" Dan Crane. - Prudie

Blogometer Extra: House Edition

CO 04: Wavy Musgravy

  Ten days ago, jesselee at the DCCC's Stakeholder crowed that incumbent GOP Rep. Marilyn Musgrave was "in trouble" and quoted a poll showing Musgrave and Dem challenger Angie Paccione "dead even."

  Fast forward 5 days: Erick Kleefeld at TPMCafe wonders if Musgrave is "suddenly vulnerable."  He quotes "both independent and partisan Democratic polls [that] show the race to be very close."  He discusses at length the factors that have "eroded Musgrave's prospects."

  Yet Tuesday at Daily Kos, Markos Moulitsas quietly, and with little commentary, posts a Mason-Dixon poll showing Musgrave with a solid 10-point lead.  All Kos managed to say about it is that it's "looking less good ... but Musgrave is still under the magic 50 percent mark and Paccione raised a ton of cash last quarter.  It's still in play."

CO 05: Out Like A Lamborn

  Peace in the Middle East.  A Green Party president.  Super Bowl Champion Arizona Cardinals.  Some things just seem so impossible, they're nigh on ridiculous.  Take Colorado's 5th Congressional District.  Located in Colorado Springs, home of the Air Force Academy, NORAD, and Focus on the Family, the conservative-laden district "has gone to a Republican every year since the seat was created in 1972," as Greg Pollowitz at National Review's Sixers writes.  Yet amazingly, due to a nasty primary, a disgruntled retiring incumbent, gaffes by the GOP candidate and twists of fortune, the seat could go to a Democrat for the the first time in 34 years.

  You may remember retiring Rep. Joel Hefley as the House Ethics Committee chair who was ousted by cronies of disgraced Rep. Tom DeLay (R-TX) after Hefley had the temerity to admonish "The Hammer" for his myriad shenanigans.  Hefley decided to retire, endorsing his staffer Jeff Crank in the GOP primary, a victory there essentially sealing the deal.  However, Focus on the Family-backed challenger Doug Lamborn used questionable tactics to upstage Crank and take the primary, prompting Hefley to withhold his endorsement "due to Lamborn's 'dishonest' and 'sleazy' primary campaign," Pollowitz writes.

  Into that conservative vacuum stepped unheralded Dem candidate Jay Fawcett.  While the right squabbled, Fawcett presented himself as a tasty alternative to Lamborn, and had the good fortune to be a decorated war veteran and graduate of the Academy himself.  That, along with Lamborn's short temper, Focus ties, and unpopularity among moderate Republicans and independents has put the race for CO 05 in a dead heat per a recent poll, which is a victory in and of itself.

  One incident in particular that illustrates Lamborn's problems is his outburst at a recent debate with Fawcett, telling a audience member to "keep your mouth shut."  (Video available here.)

  Kos notes that an ad that Fawcett has just begun to run is the "first Democratic TV ad aired in this district ever," per Fawcett's campaign.

IL 06: When You Get Behind Closed Doors

  Greg Sargent at TPMCafe has gotten wind of an upcoming private fundraiser hosted by Foleygated House Speaker Dennis Hastert.  The Speaker will be stumping for GOP candidates Peter Roskam and David McSweeney.

  Sargent reminds us that Roskam was the guy "who suggested that Dem vet amputee Tammy Duckworth wanted to 'cut and run' from Iraq," and he "doesn't appear to be letting Foleygate prevent him from enjoying the fundraising help."  Sargent apparently tried to get a comment from the Roskam camp, which declined.

  Commenter dbeckett wondered aloud:

  Are protests passe and lame?  What if 100,000 (or more) people spontaneously congregated at the Chicago Hilton at about the time this fundraiser was about to begin with banners and posters registering their outrage about the current situation of corruption and incompetence of the GOP and the Bush Administration.  Wouldn't that make news?

OH 18: Zack Attack

  Andrew Golis at TPMCafe sheds light on a new GOP ad blasting Dem candidate Zack Space's acceptance of a $5,000 donation from an organization called "Council for a Livable World."  "The ad hammers the think tank for advocating for defense spending cuts and opposing missile defense systems," Golis writes, "and it concludes that the Space-backing group is 'radical' and 'dangerous.'"  (You can view the ad here.)

  There's one problem with the ad, says Golis:

  As the Cleveland Plain-Dealer points out, the Council's board includes retired generals, it "was founded by scientists who developed the atomic bomb," and best of all, it is "generally considered centrist and regularly endorses Republicans."  Radical it isn't.

  Commenter Cyby9 remarks, "Pretty ironic that in a district where the Congressman resigned over a financial scandal, Reflublicans highlight a $5000 contribution to the Dem."

PA 10: Mistress Distress

  GOP Rep. Don Sherwood is getting hammered by the left in the wake of allegations of infidelity and physical abuse.  The latest lick comes in the form of an ad by Dem challenger Chris Carney, viewable here, that keeps the focus on Sherwood's improprieties.  Eric Kleefeld at TPMCafe remarks on a "key quote" in the "hard-hitting" ad: "'Don Sherwood campaigned on family values,' one constituent says.  'He has no family values.'"

  John Aravosis at AMERICAblog heaps it on Sherwood and his indiscretions, quipping, "Seriously, what do you have to do to lose a leadership position in the Republican party?"  Commenter Heil Mary at Raw Story rages, "Duplicity from the Party that demands abstinence only and deadly coerced childbearing instead of birth control and abortion for all girls and women they aren't personally bonking."  Piltdown comments with levity, "Perverts, and bullies, and thieves!  Oh my!"  Given the gravity of the allegations, it's hard to foresee any respite for Sherwood in the final weeks of the election season.

[Mike Sheehan]

Blogometer Extra

BLOGGERS VS. BELTWAY: Gone Amuck

  Paul Kiel at TPMmuckracker can hardly contain himself.  Three databases that "provide some excellent tools for muckrakers" have been made available to the public.

  First up is FedSpending.org, a "searchable database of federal grants and contacts," as Kiel describes it.  "Curious what contracts add up to Lockheed Martin's $24,779,249,050 this year?  You can find out there."

  Then there is the Center for Responsive Politics' Personal Financial Disclosure Reports site, which is "a rundown of the net worth of every member of Congress and the administration, as well as breakdowns from their financial disclosure statements."  You'll see that as of 2005, Sen. John Kerry is ranked as the 4th wealthiest politician on the Hill (Sen. Herb Kohl is tops), with a max net worth of $234 million, while at the other end is Rep. Alcee Hastings, whose max net worth is "negative $7,335,000," per the chart.  And you thought YOUR bills were bad.

  Lastly is a Travel Database, also from CRP, where "you see the sponsored trips taken by each member of Congress in the past two years."

  The databases, as Kiel notes, "were funded by grants from the Washington-based nonprofit the Sunlight Foundation."  "Bit by bit," adds Glenn Reynolds at Instapundit, "this stuff is becoming more accessible.  Will that make a difference?  It will, if people want it to make a difference.  And they should."

Beltway Vs. Beltway: Jesus Tweaks

  Considering its source, Tucker Carlson made a startling assertion on the Chris Matthews show the other day:

CARLSON: It goes deeper than that though.  The deep truth is that the elites in the Republican Party have pure contempt for the evangelicals who put their party in power.  Everybody in...

MATTHEWS: How do you know that?  How do you know that?

CARLSON: Because I know them.  Because I grew up with them.  Because I live with them.  They live on my street.  Because I live in Washington, and I know that everybody in our world has contempt for the evangelicals.  And the evangelicals know that, and they're beginning to learn that their own leaders sort of look askance at them and don't share their values.

MATTHEWS: So this gay marriage issue and other issues related to the gay lifestyle are simply tools to get elected?

CARLSON: That's exactly right.  It's pandering to the base in the most cynical way, and the base is beginning to figure it out.

  "Brutally honest" is how The Daily Dish's Andrew Sullivan described Carlson's booked revelations.  "No one could have ever imagined," AMERICAblog's John Aravosis quips, "that the Republicans would hate the intolerant, doctrinaire, all-demanding and never-happy bigost in their own party."

Hastertous Waste

  House Speaker Dennis Hastert is enduring rough times, a page right out of a horror story, in the wake of Foleygate.  The gaffes, finger-pointing and outright peculiarity that Hastert's been caught up in couldn't have come at a worse time for the Republicans, who face slumping polls less than a month from Election Day.

At first, Hastert blamed his own staff, even describing it as a "cover up."  Judd at Think Progress writes:

  At a press conference this morning, House Speaker Dennis Hastert (R-IL) set up his staff to take the blame for the Mark Foley scandal.  Asked if he was satisfied with how his staff handled the matter, Hasert said, “I understand what my staff told me.  And I think from that response, they’ve handled it as well as they should.”

  Hastert, however, raised the prospect of a “cover up” led by senior members of his staff, and noted that they will be interviewed “under oath.”  He told reporters, “If they did cover something up, they should not continue to have their jobs.”

  It will be tough for Hastert to succeed in his efforts to pin the blame exclusively on his staff.  Hastert was directly informed of Foley’s inappropriate emails last spring by both House Majority Leader John Boehner (R-OH) and Rep. Tom Reynolds (R-NY).

  Clearly feeling the pressure behind the scenes, the embattled Speaker is turning to friends for support.  And also, as Justin Rood at TPMmuckraker describes him, "nut-job evangelist" K.A. Paul.  Rood:

  You're House Speaker Dennis Hastert.  You're up to your wattle in the recriminations and repercussions of the Foley page scandal.  You probably lost whatever chance you had of keeping your party in the majority.  You're trying to save your own skin, much less the skins of your loyal staff, while multiple investigations are digging into your side about who knew what, when, and what they did or didn't do about it.

  So you decide to take a meeting with a globe-hopping, PR-happy evangelist who (if accounts can be believed) faked his own leper colony?

  After the 30-minute meeting between Hastert and Indian-by-way-of-Houston Christian evangelist K.A. Paul today, Hastert had no comment for the press.

  Rood writes that Paul, on the other hand, had lots to say afterward.  "I am humbled with his humility and simplicity," he told the AP.  He also said that he was "trying to get Hastert to step down."  "We don't want the Foley scandal when we have 100 more important things to do."

  As for the leper colony story, the Houston Press has the goods on it as well as other anecdotes from the bizarre history of Paul, such as "interfering with a murder investigation in India" and "abandoning an 11-year-old girl after checking her into a hospital."  For his part, Hastert claimed he was duped by Paul, believing him to be a supporter, reports the Chicago Sun-Times.

  As if that weren't all enough for Hastert, he inexplicably held a press conference before, of all places and in full view of CNN cameras... a cemetery.

[Mike Sheehan]

10/12: Is It 2008 Yet?

The first item featured at Daily Kos' Online Store is a "Is It 2008 Yet?" asphalt tee. That exact same sentiment could be felt at National Review Online's 10th Anniversary bash 10/11 in DC. The only pol making an appearance: MA Gov. Mitt Romney (R-MA), the WH '08 favorite of The Corner's "den mother" Kathryn Jean Lopez. Romney is still trailing ex-NY mayor Rudy Giuliani in most righty blogger straw polls, but nights like 10/11 may help him close that gap.

LANDSCAPE: It's Gonna Be A GOP Landslide!

Townhall's Hugh Hewitt claims "The High Water Mark for the 2006 Democrats Was A Week Ago" arguing "the Foley effect had begun to dissipate as the reality of the choice before the country broke through even the MSM's fascination with the destruction of the Republicans because of the notorious IMs." Hewitt sees "strong momentum" for "Santorum in Pennsylvania, DeWine in Ohio, and Corker in Tennessee." Hewitt also suggests "in Missouri ... Democratic nominee McCaskill's remarkable ability to churn out gaffes might make it a breakaway."

Also on the right, RCP Blog's Jay Cost questions MSM censuses that the GOP base is "dispirited" and Erick Erickson identifies the winner of RedState's "I will vote Republican in 2006 because" contest. The winning entry:

1. I want a prosperous America, where the poorest can achieve wealth, if allowed to save instead of pay high taxes, while benefiting from low unemployment and limited regulation. 2. I want a freer America, where my rights-- to own a gun, to determine my own healthcare arrangements-- are not infringed in the pursuit of an abstract common good. 3. I want a strong America-- one that does not cower when threatened by its enemies, which defends its interests, and exists as a beacon of hope to all who wish to be free.

Finally, Pat Cleary at RedState notes that Dems are already posting job vacancy notices for "possible expanded Democratic committee staff in the 110th Congress."

CT SEN: In Your Heart, You Know He's Last

Writing from CT, MyDD's Matt Stoller links to a New York Timesarticle quoting Dem office holders quietly admitting "they would be satisfied to see their longtime colleague returned to Washington." Stoller comments: "After the primary, DC Democrats dissuaded Lamont from attacking Lieberman, essentially promising him that they would talk Joe out of running. This was of course a lie, but it worked. They lied not only to Lamont, but to us, and to regular activist Democrats who work for the party and play by the rules." Stoller, however, holds out hope the debates will turn the race around: "Though the electorate is beginning to pay attention, the three debates haven't happened yet, and according to these numbers, if Lamont were to just bump up his percentage of Democrats from 62% to 75%, he'll be dead even with Lieberman, and it'll come down to the ground game."

DailyKos' founder Markos Moulitsas is even more bullish on cable exec Ned Lamont's (D) chances: "Seven points down? The Connecticut CW is that if Lamont is within 5 points on election day, his superior ground operation can make up the difference. So seven, if accurate, would be getting close to that mark. Unfortunately, there are no trend line for this poll so we can't gauge momentum. But things feel much better these last two weeks than they have in a while."

Finally, TRex at firedoglake has the winners of their competition to help Sen. Joe Lieberman (I) find a message to remind voters that he can be found at the bottom of the ballot:

• Joe Lieberman: I'm on there somewhere!
• I'm Joe Lieberman and I approve this mess
• No candidate is lower than Joe Lieberman!
• In your heart, you know he's last
• It's a short ride to the bottom of the ballot

MO SEN: But Who Will Represent The Dead If They Can't Even Vote?

Paul Seale at RedState links to a St. Louis Post-Dispatch story on the St. Louis Election Board finding "1,492 "potentially fraudulent" voter registration cards - including three from dead people" and writes: "So how many of those registrants are fraudulent? How many will be voting for Claire McCaskill? I hope our supreme court decides to let the law requiring IDs to stand firm. Otherwise the dead will truly vote for Claire."

On the left, TAPPED's Scott Lemieux looks at Sen. Jim Talent's (R) 10/9 Meet the Press on abortion and writes: "Which serves to remind us, again, that the policies generally favored by the American pro-life movement display considerably more commitment to regulating female sexuality than to protecting fetal life."

TN SEN: A Cut Above The Rest

The Plank's Isaac Chotiner was turned off by Rep. Harold Ford's (D-09) "unfortunate and unseemly rhetoric" on immigration, but found the rest of his performance to be a "virtuoso act ... cut above the rest."

VA SEN: Not Yard Sign Stealing!!??!

Totallynext at Daily Kos reports "a massive theft of Webb yard signs throughout the Woodley, Westgate, and Straftford precincts." TN finds this especially important since: "Westgate precinct is where the home of George Allen is located. Yes folks he is in our backyard."

Meanwhile, ex-Navy sec. James Webb's Netroots Coordinator and Raising Kaine founder Lowell Feld links to audio from Young Turks radio of Rev. Jesse Jackson's thoughts on Allen:

Question: "George Allen has been in a lot of trouble for reference to some of the history that you just mentioned...Macaca comment..."n word"...The part that really struck us... was the "noose that was hanging from a tree at some point in his office. He says that it was Western memorabilia. Do you see it as Western memorabilia?" Answer by Jesse Jackson: "No. It is a pattern of sick behavior, born of a certain cultural orientation. He seems not to have risen above those...dimensions of our culture. And I suppose the people of Virginia will judge him and judge themselves by their vote at election time."

GOP FIELD: What Did Pataki Do Recently?

GOP Bloggers is running their monthly straw poll, again asking which possible '08ers are "acceptable" or "unacceptable" as nominees. MA Gov. Mitt Romney is the most "acceptable" candidate at 53.6% followed by ex-NY mayor Rudy Giuliani at 49.9% and Newt Gingrich at 44.4%. The three most "unacceptable" nominees: Sen. Chuck Hagel (R-NE) at 53.6%, Gov. George Pataki at 44.9%, and Sen. John McCain (R-AZ)at 44.5%.

Giuliani is the "first choice" of 29.7% of righty blog reader participants followed by Gingrich at 21.8% and Romney at 19.3%. Giuliani bests Romney in a three way race with McCain 47.7%-42.7%-6.5%, and head to head 51.1% to 45.1%.

ROMNEY: A Hit By All More Objective Reports

Kathryn Jean Lopez thanked everyone who turned out for National Review Online's 10th anniversary bash 10/11 including: "Charles Krauthammer, Bill Bennett, Laura Ingraham, Lucianne, Jim Angle, Scooter Libby, Tony Blankley, Ralph Reed, Mark Salter, Mary Matalin, Cesar Conda, (watch me spread the '08 love around now), Rep. Marsha Blackburn, White Housers, Hill Guys, and so very many more who joined us."

For Lopez though, only one guest really mattered: "A governor. A Republican governor. The Republican governor of Massachusetts was at our party tonight. And he was a hit by all more objective reports. In short: You know what early straw poll I care about..." RightsideRedux has pics and some video.

GIULIANI: Go Ken!

Wizbang has video of ex-NY mayor Rudy Giuliani's new ad for OH Sec/State Ken Blackwell.

OBAMA: Jeebus Knows

Firedoglake's Jane Hamsher looks at Ezra Klein's American Prospectarticle on Sen. Barack Obama (D-IL) and writes: "Obama is charismatic and a powerful speaker, and Jeebus knows the Democrats are in dire need of those. But despite the eagerness of many to place their hopes for the future in him, he has done little to merit it beyond earning high marks for presentation - he has a tendency to regularly repeat GOP talking points in a way that damage the party, an unfortunate quality in someone who has hopes of leading it."

KERRY: Biggest Regret Of His Public Life

On the anniversary of his vote to give Pres. Bush the authority to use force in Iraq, Sen. John Kerry (D-MA) writes at The Huffington Post: "There's nothing - nothing - in my life in public service I regret more, nothing even close." Kerry argues that "it is not enough to point out that we were grossly misled. ... But it is also not enough just to look backwards. ... That's why I have proposed a deadline for Iraq and a comprehensive plan to end the civil war. At each step along the way, the Iraqi leaders have responded only to deadlines. So why not a deadline to extricate our troops? Read about my plan at http://blog.johnkerry.com."

BLOGGERS VS. MSM: On The Plus Side, He Didn't Make Wanker Of The Day

DailyKos' founder Markos Moulitsas describes AP's John Solomon as "being dishonest or an idiot" for his article on Sen. Harry Reid's (D-NV) failure to properly report a land deal to the Senate Ethics Comm. Kos writes: "Ultimately, there might be a technical violation of Senate rules -- Reid has asked for clarification from the ethics committee. But bottom line is that Reid followed the spirit of the law." Atrios, AMERICAblog, and firedoglake all have unkind words for Solomon as well.

On the right, Instapundit reader Anthony Calabrese sees "no real tax issue. The only issue is that Reid might have been hiding his ownership of the property, but holding investment property in an LLC is fairly common in order to protect the owners from torts or bankruptcy. I think this is simply an issue of someone forgetting to file a form." Power Line's John Hinderaker doesn't necessarily see anything wrong with Reid's actions but: "It does appear, though, that Reid clearly violated Senate ethics rules by failing to disclose the existence of the LLC and his partnership with Brown." Captain's Quarters, however, argues Reid is trying to down play his connections to "lobbyist and real-estate investor" Harvey Whittemore.

BLOGGERS VS. MSM II: A Non-Fake Person Wrote This Subhead

Daily Kos' JR Monsterfodder (Co. State. prof. Jonathan Rees) calls attention to the identifies of Wal-Marting Across America's "Jim" and "Laura." Rees calls Jim and Laura "fake people" for a Business Week article on the campaign, and now he has nailed down their real identities including Jim who is "James Thresher, a photographer for the Washington Post." Rees writes:

If you look in the bottom right-hand corner you'll see that their blog is sponsored by "Working Families for Wal-Mart. "Working Families for Wal-Mart is a front group funded by Wal-Mart and run by the Washington p.r. firm Edelman. It was created in order to spread positive stories about Wal-Mart in the media. Thresher, in other words, just shot and co-wrote a gigantic ad for Wal-Mart in exchange for a free RV trip, paid for by Wal-Mart. Your "liberal" media at work. The Post has gotta have rules about this sort of thing, right?

BLOGGERS VS. BELTWAY: Hastert's Gonna Love This

MyDD's Matt Stoller picks up on Jewish Telegraphic Agency story: "A top staffer for billionaire philanthropist George Soros met recently with senior representatives of the dovish pro-Israel community to discuss setting up an alternative to the American Israel Public Affairs Committee, JTA has learned." Stoller comments: "AIPAC is deeply unrepresentative of the mostly liberal Jewish population in this country. It's good to see them getting some possible competition. Actually, it could be game-changing."

BUSH: Relentlessly Negative

On the left, Talking Post Memo's Josh Marshall had the most posts (including this one on North Korea) on Pres. Bush's 10/11 presser. Marshall writes: "And evaluating it as objectively as I can, it really sounds like a train wreck. The last question had a line in it asking the president if he feels 'like the walls are closing in on him' with declining support for his Iraq policy. The other questions have been pretty relentlessly negative. And the more pointed ones the president hasn't been able answer, even with effective bamboozlement."

Rep. Diane Watson (D-CA) blogged a response at The Huffington Post: "A press conference is a rare event for this administration. It appeared to be a tortuous event for Mr. Bush. More than any other President in recent memory, his inability to frame and articulate the issues is embarrassingly obvious. ... It has been three and one half years since the President boarded an aircraft carrier and declared "mission accomplished." Staying the course is no longer a viable option for accomplishing the mission. The President mentioned relying on his generals, but too many of his generals are saying that we have to change course in Iraq."

The Plank's Bradford Plumer was stricken by Bush's response to the Lancet study on Iraqi casualties: "I am, you know, amazed that this is a society which so wants to be free that they're willing to -- you know, that there's a level of violence that they tolerate."

Few on the right had lengthy thoughts on Bush's performance. RedState's Academic Elephant thought Bush "was perhaps most impressive when talking about why he believes the Republicans will maintain majorities in both houses of congress. Over the past six years you might have noticed that the President comes on strongest when he's faced with a stiff challenge and his chances have been written off by the powers that be."

FOLEY: Heroes And Zeros

It's another day, and the left continues to track fallout from scandals involving ex-Rep. Mark Foley (R). In a running tally aided by the DCCC, John Aravosis points out that Sen. John McCain (R-AZ) is just the latest to cancel appearances with Rep./NRCC chair Tom Reynolds (R-NY), following on the heals of several other embattled Reps for whom, until two weeks ago, a Reynolds visit would have been a boon.

Perhaps the most troubling aspect of the story, as many have pointed out, is the lack of cohesion with which the GOP is approaching it. Kevin Drum watched "The Chris Matthews Show" 10/9 and noted Tucker Carlson's "contempt" at the GOP's "pandering to the base in the most cynical way." Drum also checks out a new book by ex-WH aide David Kuo that purports to claim the GOP isn't exactly friendly to evangelicals, either.

MSNBC's Olbermann looked at Kuo's book last night as well. Olbermann claims the Foley matter is just the latest example of the GOP not actually standing up for Christian Conservatives. Have a look, courtesy of Crooks and Liars.

Andrew Sullivan points to GOP problems in the South, courtesy the Southern Political Report's Hastings Wyman.

A surprising hero of Foley-gate: Dep WH CoS Karl Rove -- at least according to TPM Cafe's Eric Kleefeld and the AP.

The right, though, isn't willing to let the scandal go without a fight. Strata-Sphere thinks the Washington Post and others have practically admitted to reading off Dem talking points: "What other evidence do we need," he asks, pointing to this article, "other than the admissions by Harpers and the WaPo that they dealt with democrat operatives and used democrat sources bent on impacting the coming elections?" == Dean Barnett at TownHall is thinking about the scandal in an entirely different manner: "Kos proclaims today that the Foley scandal isn't going away. I hope he's right. I hope he and the Democrats are misguided enough to pound on it every day. That way they'll leave the impression that they have nothing to offer of substance. That happens to be true, so give them a couple of points at long last for showing intellectual honesty."

Citing the same WaPo piece Strata does, TPM's Josh Marshall notes: "It occurred to me that you can't really cover or follow a scandal unless you know who the key players are." The post then offers pictures and two-second backgrounds on top players, including Hastert CoS Scott Palmer, counsel Ted Van Der Meid and others.

THOUGHT OF THE DAY: A Trial Balloon In CT?

MyDD's Matt Stoller advises '08 Dems to pay attention to Sen. Joe Lieberman's (I-CT) campaign since he is running "McCain's strategy." Stoller reasons:

Lieberman's hope is that economically populist working class white ethnic voters, combined with conservative voters, make a majority, and the key driver in bringing the first group of voters is perceived independence from both parties, while the key driver in bringing the second group is allegiance to a far right agenda. McCain's 'Straight Talk Express' in 2000 drew in a huge number of these relatively low information voters, though he couldn't bring in the conservative base because Bush locked him out of the establishment. With no Bush in the 2008 race, McCain can make this coalition possible.

LEST WE FORGET: White Guys In Their 30s Love NRO

National Review Online's Jonah Goldberg shares one of his "favorite moments" from 10/11's NRO 10th anniversary bash:

One women came up to me and asked "Are you Jonah Goldberg." I replied, "I am. It's nice to meet you -" Completely unfazed that she guessed right, she cut me off and said, "Then you must know what John Miller looks like!" I laughed. And told her I did indeed know what he looks like. "He's a tall white guy in his mid to late thirties," I said laughing. All you had to do was look around the room to know that this was next to no help at all, which she immediately appreciated.

10/11: Leftward Ho!

Despite exhortation from DailyKos' founder Markos Moulitsas not to start celebrating victory quite yet, MyDD's Chris Bowers has two lengthy posts up focused like a laser on framing the meaning of the Dems anticipated takeover of Congress. Bowers two main points: 1) the Dems are succeeding by moving to the left, not to the center; 2) Dem victory is due to the strength of the netroots, not recent GOP mistakes (like Foley). Will these frames get picked up? Will Dems move visibly left when they take power? Or is it still too early to even be asking these questions?

FOLEY FALLOUT: No Really, Why Should You Vote GOP In '06?

Univ. of WI prof. Charles H. Franklin at Pollster.com compares pre and post Foley generic ballot results and finds "The post-Foley Folly polls find an upturn in the Democratic margin in the generic Congressional ballot." Franklin identifies the development as "all the more important because prior to the Foley Fiasco the trend had moved a bit down, then flattened ... Whatever possible gains Republicans were beginning to make have now been wiped out."

The vast majority of righty bloggers are admitting the damage Foley has caused:

• National Review Online's Larry Kudlow: "The first batch of major polls released following the Foley scandal and Speaker Hastert's mismanagement of this mess has hit the street. They are devastating to the Republican outlook for the congressional elections on November 7-devastating. ... Perhaps the GOP will get an election comeuppance; and maybe that's not such a bad thing after all."
• RCP Blog's John McIntyre: "It's clear now that the Foley scandal has hurt Republicans in national Generic polling, what isn't clear is whether this movement will flow through to individual Senate, House and Governor races across the nation. Common-sense suggests that it will, what is unknown is the degree."
• Erick Erickson at RedState: "As John McIntyre notes this morning, generic balloting that has come out after the Foley scandal shows a 5.5% swing to the Democrats. ... If the GOP cannot change the message *this week*, the GOP majority in the House and, most likely, the Senate is toast. That's life and that is reality.
• Townhall's Dean Barnett: "Like I said a couple of days ago, the time has come for the Republican Party to move on from the Foley affair. If this election is in any way a referendum on that matter, Speaker Pelosi becomes a tragic inevitability. ... The Pelosi stand on missile defense, especially in light of this weekend's antics on the Korean peninsula, show how the Democrats as a party just aren't ready for primetime when it comes to national security issues. .... Tell your favorite Republican strategist - it's time to talk about matters of consequence.

Hope is not lost on the right. Power Line's John Hinderaker writes: "At this point, it appears that the Republican majorities in both House and Senate are poised on a knife edge. If we can have four weeks of normal campaigning between now and November 7, I still think enough Republicans will get their messages out to hold both chambers. But that's a big "if."

All the GOP doom and gloom inspired RedState's Erick Erickson to sponsor a contest: "And while the Republicans, like rats on a sinking ship, are starting to flee, they've left behind a mess of a message. So, here's the contest. ... The topic: Why you should vote Republican in 2006. It should be 100 words or less. ... And, I'll buy the winner a one year subscription to the Limbaugh Letter."

FOLEY FALLOUT II: We Earned This

MyDD's Chris Bowers argues " it needs to be made clear that Republicans have not blown this election through a series of mistakes." Bowers claims "the big problems that have pushed Republican chances so low--Iraq, Social Security, Terry Schaivo, Katrina, and now Foley--are not Republican "mistakes" as such. They are instead, inherent to Republican governance." Bowers concludes:

While there was tremendous help from across the progressive ecosystem, Social Security would be dead right now if not for the netroots helping to keep Democrats in line. ... Would the narrative on Foley have so quickly metastasized into a broader indictment of the Republican leadership? ... The reason is the political and media prowess supplied by the netroots, by the progressive movement and by the Democracy Alliance nexus. ... Democrats and progressives have earned this lead--it did not fall into our laps."

The Washington Monthly's Kevin Drum admits luck has had a role in Dems upcoming success, but still gives the netroots credit for their work making sure Dems could take advantage: "if the Republican Party does continue its ongoing implosion, it's going to make Howard Dean look pretty smart, isn't it? It'll mean that Democrats win a historic victory this year and have made two year's worth of progress on improving their state organizations for 2008. Sure, some of that is just luck. Neither Dean nor anyone else predicted this year's Republican meltdown. But you know what they say: luck favors the well prepared.

LANDSCAPE: Don't Count Those Chickens Quite Yet

DailyKos' founder Markos Moulitsas warns his troops "I'm getting a little nervous with people thinking we have any race this fall in the bag." Markos continues: "We've got to pick up six seats for a majority, seven if we want to avoid a potential Lieberman blackmail situation (if he wins his race). We have to hold all of our own endangered seats (looking solid in MN, okay in MD, and iffy in NJ). Then, in the Republican-held competitive races left -- MO, MT, OH, PA, RI, TN, and VA -- all but one feature incumbents, always the hardest races to win. Incumbents rarely, rarely lose." Markos then offers a reason why each race could still be lost including:

• We're leading in the polls in Ohio, but DeWine (R) had $3 million more cash on hand than Democrat Sherrod Brown, with the RNC and NRSC already dumping what could end up being $5-15 million more into the state
• Same case in Missouri, where Talent (R) has more than $4 million more than Democrat Claire McCaskill
• Montana seems great on paper, but Burns (R) has about $1.5 million more than Democrat Jon Tester in a state that George Bush carried 59-39
• In Pennsylvania, the polls have shown the race tightening. Meanwhile Santorum (R) has over $4 million more in the bank than Democrat Bob Casey
• In Tennessee, the recent spate of positive poll results for Democrat Harold Ford are a godsend, but we can't assume they'll hold in conservative Tennessee.
• And in Virginia ... heck, we're still trailing in Virginia.

LANDSCAPE II: Quick Hits

TPM Cafe's Kenneth Baer argues 2006 may be more like 1982 than 1994: "First, the numbers. 54 percent of those polled said they would support the Democratic candidate for Congress (41 percent said the Republican). Looking down the table, one notes that those numbers were 47-42 on November 6, 1994 -- a testament to the importance of turnout. The only period that compares to this spread is the 58 percent to 39 percent reading on October 27, 1982."

Also at TPM Cafe, Matt Corley reports 90% "of the National Republican Campaign Committee's ad budget will be spent on so-called "contrast" ads between now and election day, according to NRCC spokesman Ed Patru. ... "Contrast" ads, of course, are negative ads."

Finally, RCP Blog's Jay Cost casts doubts on the legend of the GOP turnout machine: "More generally -- voter mobilization is a long-standing tradition of American politics. If it did not work, I suspect that strategic politicians would have moved away from it long ago. So, the fact that we cannot demonstrate its efficacy via a statistical model does not mean that it is ineffective. Our inability is a testament to our lack of data."

CT SEN: This Race Clearly Needs More Al Sharpton

MyDD's Matt Stoller looks at Hartford Courantnumbers showing Sen. Joe Lieberman (I) leading cable exec Ned Lamont (D) 48-40 and claims "Lamont Regains Some Momentum." Stoller finishes: "Lieberman's been up on the air a lot more than Lamont recently, so Lieberman's apparent bleeding of support lends some credence to the theory that he's peaked. Lieberman's an excellent politician, and Lamont's a novice, so it makes sense that Lamont couldn't easily get his message of change out. It's nice to see that beginning to shift."

With help from lefty bloggers, Lieberman has successfully involved Rev. Al Sharpton in the race again. TPM Cafe's Greg Sargent notes the New York Times reported that Lieberman invoked Sharpton's appearance on stage with Lamont's primary victory party to question Lamont's "commitment to Israel." This prompted Sharpton to send Lieberman a letter "hammering him for the comment." Lieberman spokeswoman Tammy Sun then dismissed the letter as "a baseless, extreme and divisive attack from one of Ned Lamont's closest advisers." Sargent then called Sharpton who was more than happy to further comment on the matter: "It definitely borders on racism and I think it's beneath Joe Lieberman. It's so close to the border that he needs a passport. I might add that the only one who's brought up race in this campaign is them."

Sargent also has video of Lamont's new ad "attacking Joe Lieberman in his own words -- in Lieberman's words, that is. The screen shows a youngish Lieberman 18 years ago, during the campaign in which he unseated then-Senator Lowell Weicker in 1988, and quotes him making promises about attendance and voting which the Lamont campaign contends he's broken."

OH SEN: Putting A Soldier At Risk

TPM Cafe's Greg Sargent received no comment from Sen. Mike DeWine's (R) campaign as to whether "a soldier appearing in one of the campaign's political ads is an actor or a real member of the military. The ad -- which ran roughly in the last week of September and the first week of October and is right here -- pictures family members of soldiers praising DeWine. For about three seconds, what appears to be an actual soldier is visible in uniform." Sargent notes that DoD policy prohibits military personnel from wearing uniforms at "political campaigns or election events." Sargent concludes: "By airing an ad touting DeWine's help for troops, he may have put a real soldier at risk."

RI SEN: Heck Of A Job, Liddy

RedState's Leon Wolf looks at recent RI SEN polling numbers and declared: "Lincoln Chafee is toast. So, all the NRSC money spent attacking a fellow Republican was all for naught." Wolf concludes: "In order to overcome the natural partisan tilt in Rhode Island, Chafee needed to have a solid advantage of at least 8 or 9 points - he didn't, and that should have sent up the alarm bells. For some reason, it didn't with Elizabeth Dole, and now the coffers are (at least) $1.2 million lighter, and Steve Laffey will probably never be able to run for statewide office in Rhode Island again."

VA SEN: The Martian Chronicles

Righty bloggers continue to hit back on AP revelations that Sen. George Allen (R) failed to report stock options, as required, to the Senate Ethics Cmte. The official AllenHQ has the short version:

• 1. Senator Allen disclosed the stock options in his first year in the Senate, after which
• 2. on the advice of Ethics Committee Staff, Allen's office believed that worthless ("underwater") stock options need not be disclosed again
• 3. the only compensation Allen did get was specifically approved by the Senate Ethics Committee.

Captain's Quarters and RedState also go to bat for Allen on the issue. DailyKos' founder Markos Moulitsas offers the left's nutshell version of events:

This stuff gets very complicated, very quickly. The bottom line is that 1) Allen used his clout to help out a company that 2) gave him options that 3) he failed to report to the Senate ethics committee as required by Senate rules. So in addition to being racist, he -- like apparently most Republicans -- refused to follow rules designed to prevent the abuses of power to which they are wholly addicted.

Meanwhile, The Plank's Jason Zengerle thinks the subject matter of the scandal offers clues as to what Allen might do if he loses: "Lost in all the hubbub over George Allen's failure to disclose his Xybernaut stock options are the details of what, exactly, the high-tech company was about. From the looks of this 2001 Space Daily article, Xybernaut was about sending a man to Mars. Maybe if Allen loses his Senate seat, he'll have a second act."

Markos also reviews new ads from the DSCC and Team Webb: "I find these really conventional negative ads. Viewers are conditioned to tune them out. I haven't seen Allen's and the NRSC's ads, but they're probably little better." MyDD's Jonathan Singer thinks a bit more highly of the DSCC effort: "The ad is, I think, successful on a number of levels. First, it gets out a lot of information about Allen's voting record, pointing out some of his more outrageous stances, such as those on the minimum wage and body armor. No, the real success of the ad lies in the fact that it uses these issues as a cover to go after Allen for his racially insensitive language, most notably targeting the "macaca" comment." On the right, The A-Team offers a claim by claim refutation of the DSCC ad, and the official AllenHQ does the same for Webb's ad.

Over at Raising Kaine ex-Navy sec. James Webb's (D) netroots coordinator Lowell Feld wonders if the presence of S.R. Sidarth caused Allen's hasty exit from 10/9's debate, and Feld later postsvideo of the debate.

MCCAIN: Scoring A Hat Trick With A Single Sentence

Right Angle Blog's Matt Lewis posts Sen. John McCain's (R-AZ) 10/10 statement "I would remind Senator Clinton and other Democrats critical of Bush administration policies that the framework agreement her husband's administration negotiated was a failure," and comments: "In my estimation, this was really a hat trick. Simultaneously, John McCain has taken a step toward endearing himself to conservatives (who still hate Bill Clinton), he has taken a shot at Hillary -- his possible future opponent -- and (with midterms approaching) he has also warned voters of the danger involved in electing weak leaders to public office. In one fell swoop, McCain helped himself, helped his country, and attacked his opponent. Not bad for a day at the office." IA's Caucus Cooler has similar thoughts: "McCain took the opportunity to reinforce his national security street cred, and separate himself from Hillary as well as some of the GOP 08ers without the security experience."

Not done wooing the righty 'sphere McCain took the opportunity to guest post at Captain's Quarters under the header "Time for Decisive Action on North Korea." McCain writes: "This isn't just about North Korea. Iran is watching this test of the Council's will, and our decisions will surely influence their response to demands that they cease their nuclear program. Now, we must, at long last, stop reinforcing failure with failure."

GIULIANI: Mistakes Were Made

National Review Online's Greg Pollowitz forwards some of ex-NY mayor Rudy Giuliani's (R) remarks from his stop in WA endorsing ex-Safeco CEO Mike McGavick (R):

Whatever the mistakes that were made in the past, in not paying attention ... when September 11 happened, we realized we were attacked, and that they're going to come after us again, and we need to go on offense against them ... We need people in Washington that understand that... Mike understands that, it doesn't look like his opponent does."

IA's Caucus Cooler surveys "The Gang of 50" ("the campaign consultants, strategists, pollsters, pundits, and journalists who make up the conventional caucus wisdom here in Iowa") and describes the conventional wisdom of the group: "We hear that Rudy is running, likely will enter late after the straw poll, and he likely will wait until a few of the major contenders stumble a little bit (Pataki in particular)... If Rudy does get in, how will Iowans react? How will he put an organization together in time? The Gang doesn't have an answer to those questions yet. But it goes without saying that the rest of the field is more comfortable with the Mayor on the paid speaking circuit, not the caucus circuit."

TERROR POLITICS: From The Producer Of Airplane

TAPPED's Greg Sargent takes New York Times columnist John Tierney to task for writing that Americans keep telling "pollsters that they didn't trust the Democrats to do a better job of dealing with terrorism" while "not one, not two, but three polls came out, all of which suggested that voters trust Dems as much or more than they do the GOP on Iraq and terrorism -- exactly the opposite of what Tierney suggested." Sargent concludes: "Either Tierney knew about those polls yesterday and deliberately ignored them, or he didn't know about them, even though they were all over the Internet and cable for hours yesterday. Dishonest or incompetent. It's one or the other."

On the right, Airplane! producer David Zucker's Drudge Report promoted ad hitting Dems for treating foreign policy like a game was widely linked. RedState, Michelle Malkin, Townhall, Wizbang, and Power Line all linked; Instapundit and Ann Althouse coyly.

Townhall's Dean Barnett has a lengthy FAQ on North Korea and Instapundit quotes The Pentagon's New Map author Thomas Barnettcriticism of Pres. Bush's handling of North Korea:

"We tolerate Russia and India and China instead of embracing them as key allies, and we indulge the Japanese and Europeans, when neither has shown much inclination to grow up strategically any time soon (although I have my hopes for Abe as the next iteration in Tokyo). Bush and Co. define the new era all right. They just don't seem to recognize that a lot of players have changed sides in the meantime."

THOUGHT OF THE DAY: Go Left, Young Man

MyDD's Chris Bowers looks at pre-2006 Dem House gains and notes that Dems "re-took their non-southern majority in the elections of 1998, and have never lost it since." Anticipating a Dem takeover this year Bowers writes:

A Democratic win in the House would thus have the side effect of geographic shift in power in this country away from the South, and toward places often-maligned by conservatives such as San Francisco and Massachusetts. New York City, San Francisco, Boston, Hollywood--these would be the new seats of power in the House of Representatives.

Bowers explains that this geographic shift "has brought with it an ideological shift" away from the center and towards the left. Bowers notes:

Still, it can be clearly argued that the left-wing shift has not hurt House Democrats in any way, shape or form. We hold our largest lead in the generic ballot in over three decades. We have by far our best chance to retake the House since 1994. We have a good chance to take more Republican-seats than in any election since 1974. And we did it all while the House Democratic Caucus moved decidedly to the left in a short period of time.

Bowers concludes that these developments will prevent the MSM from explaining Dem victory in '06 by turning to "the familiar CW they have swallowed for two decades on how Democrats must win. This will be the first post-Dixiecrat, post-Blue Dog, post-DLC, post-triangulation, post-moderation victory for Democrats in a long, long time. It will be the first victory of the people-powered progressive era."

LEST WE FORGET: Coulter In Loafers

Outside the Beltway quotes New York Magazine's Adam Sternbergh's reaction after Stephen Colbert ended a segment on eating disorder with the line "Girls, if we can't see your ribs, you're ugly." Sternbergh writes:

The audience laughed. I laughed. The line was obviously, purposefully outrageous. But it was weird to think that this no-doubt self-identified progressive-liberal crowd was howling at a line that, if it had been delivered verbatim by Ann Coulter on Today, would have them sputtering with rage. ... Of course, I'm not trying to equate Coulter with Colbert. For starters, Coulter is a shrill, abusive demagogue and Colbert just plays one on TV. But with Coulter, there's always been a sturdy suspicion that she is playing a character (like Colbert) and amping up the obnoxious rhetoric for maximum effect (like Colbert).

OTB comments: "I think that's right. Coulter has gotten increasingly outrageous in recent years and, while that has led to polarization and alienation from many (like myself) who would naturally be in her camp on many issues were she not so extreme, she gets more popular with each increment of outrageousness. It's simply difficult for me to believe that someone of Coulter's intellect and education believes half the things that come out her mouth."

Blogometer Extra

House Race Update

FL 24: Crazy Clint In The Basement

  Election Watchdog at Human Events pokes fun at two Dem challengers for House seats (Clint Curtis taking on incumbent GOPer Tom Feeney in CD 24, Bob Bowman up against Dave Weldon in CD 15).  "It turns out that the political equivalent of the movie 'Dumb and Dumber' is now 'Crazy and Crazier,'" the Dog writes, "as Democrats have put up some of the wildest and craziest candidates for the U.S. House in years."

  Hyperbole, perhaps?  Dog thinks not.  Referring to Curtis as "zany" and a "conspiracy theorist," Dog says:

Curtis's campaign revolves around accusations that he has made "in dozens of public forums -- and under oath -- that Feeney asked him and his former employer, Yang Enterprises, to create a software program to fix elections in 2000.  Feeney, who served as Yang's corporate counsel before his 2002 election to Congress, has repeatedly denied the accusations. Feeney's staff produced an inch-thick binder filled with documents that contradict Curtis' statements and question his credibility."

As Congressman and former Florida House Speaker Tom Feeney points out, "Both campaigns agree only one of us is competent to serve in Congress.  Either I ought to be in jail or in the gallows, or he ought to be getting serious treatment.  In this case, a debate about the issues is secondary."

  The Watchdog quotes the Orlando Sentinel regarding Curtis' assertions; beyond his claim that he passed a polygraph, there's "no document, e-mail or other evidence to corroborate his allegations against Feeney."

ID 01: Sali-cious Crumb

  Bill Sali, Republican challenger for the open Idaho CD 2 seat, is taking quite a beating these days... from Republicans.

  James L. at Swing State Project reports that Sali, after being mocked by the GOP state House Speaker as "an absolute idiot," is now being targeted by a former opponent who lost to Sali in the primary, Robert Vasquez.  James quotes the Seattle Post-Intelligencer:

"I would have no problem working with any other member of Idaho's delegation," Vasquez said. "I cannot in my wildest imaging contemplate any issue that Bill Sali would champion that would be beneficial to Idaho or the United States of America instead of big business corporations."

  James pulls another zinger by Vasquez from the Spokesman-Review blog:

Today, in the Idaho Press-Tribune in Nampa, second-place finisher Robert Vasquez, a Canyon County commissioner, said he’d never vote for GOP primary victor Bill Sali because, “I would not and do not and cannot endorse a liar for Congress.”

  "Ouch," summarizes James.

MN 05: What The Ellison?

  Scott at Power Line has no love for Dem candidate Keith Ellison.  While the New York Times may be hyping him as possibly the first Muslim in Congress, Scott derides him as "Louis Farrakhan's first congressman," based on Ellison's fuzzy explanations for his youthful involvement with the Nation of Islam.

  Scott in particular targets Times writer Neil MacFarquhar "lame take" on candidate Ellison, accusing him of being "uninterested" in picking at Ellison's history, rife with question marks as Scott strongly suggests:

Like so much that has appeard in the mainstream media on Ellison, this story is pathetic.  I summarized my research on Ellison last week in "Louis Farrakhan's first congressman," which I ask interested readers to place side-by-side with the Times article.  The Standard's subhead on my piece asks, "Why was the press so incurious about the past of Keith Ellison?"  It's a question that is also raised by MacFarquhar's article.

NY 24: Arcurious Allegations

  A new ad ripping Dem candidate Mike Arcuri is "getting attention" as much for its content as its background.  Robert B. Bluey at Human Events says the ad "accuses Arcuri of bungling a rape case and failing to protect women."  But what is piquing blogger interest is "its timing in light of the Mark Foley scandal.  ...[B]loggers are questioning the evidence behind the ad."

  Bluey quotes a blogger who can't find documentation on the clip ("...a spokesman for the NRCC ... refused to provide any, though he claimed they have it, a stance I've never experienced before.").  And a blogger who goes by the name of Biggus Dickus expressed his flabbergastedness about not knowing the name of the "rapist Mike Arcuri allegedly let go."

  "I didn't have a chance to call the NRCC's Patru to press him today," Bluey wraps, "but the fact that Democrats aren't squawking tells me that there's probably truth to the ad."

OH 12: Rubberstamp This!

  actapann at MyDD praises bow-tied Dem challenger Bob Shamansky's latest ad that, using JibJab-like Flash animation, mirthfully depicts GOP incumbent Pat Tiberi as a rubber-stamping Bush sycophant.  The ad in full is viewable here.

  "Bob's a former congressman," actapann notes, "who's hoping to return to the people's house some 24 years after being redistricted out."

PA 08: Chickenhawk Soup

  After freshman GOP incumbent Mike Fitzpatrick had the wherewithall to call into question the Iraq service of his Dem challenger, Patrick Murphy, he caught some serious flak... from the original Swiftboatee himself, Sen. John Kerry.

  Taylor Marsh expressed her disgust at Huffington Post: "Where do these people get the nerve?  Because it takes a lot of gall to swiftboat a veteran when you've never served yourself."  She quoted about the incident from the a Murphy press release:

At Fitzpatrick's press conference this morning, he introduced and stood alongside these three veterans, and after they made their attacks on Patrick's service record, he made no comments to the contrary, nor did he denounce their false accusations... "It just seems to me that Patrick Murphy, from what I understand, was not a front-line fighter.  That is how it seems to me his service has been characterized.  It's honorable, but it seems to me that you have front line guys and rear guard guys.  You've got rear-guard guys and front line guys.  You've got front line guys here.  It just seems to me that Patrick Murphy wasn't one of them."

  mcjoan at Daily Kos noted Murphy's credentials: "Just to set the record straight, Murphy served in Bosnia in 2002, and in Iraq during 2003-2004 as a paratrooper with the 82nd Airborne Division.  He earned the Bronze Star for his service and his unit earned the Presidential Unit Citation."

  "Patrick Murphy's crime?" posited Marsh.  "He's a veteran who is not standing silently by why his fellow soldiers take the brunt of what has become a disastrous policy in Iraq."

  As if that weren't scathing enough of a counterattack, Kerry then weighed in rather, er, swiftly in a press release:

"I won't stand for the 'swift boating' of Patrick Murphy.  It disgusts me that a congressman who has never worn the uniform of our country stands there in silence as a veteran home from Iraq has his service disparaged.

No one who has ever served would tolerate this kind of slander about a fellow veteran.  In 2000, George Bush stood in silence while John McCain's service was questioned.  It was wrong then, it is wrong now for Mike Fitzpatrick to engage in the same double-speak.  What is it these Republicans who never served have against Democrats who did? ...

"You know why Mike Fitzpatrick is engaged in the lowest form of smear and fear politics?  Because he's afraid of actually debating Patrick Murphy about the disastrous war in Iraq. ... Mike Fitzpatrick should ... find the courage to debate the real issue instead of cowardly having his surrogates try to destroy anyone who speaks truth to power.  It's unacceptable to do this to any leader of any party anywhere in our country."

  Marsh echoes Kerry's sentiments, wrapping forcefully:

Mike Fitzgerald is not only wrong he is a disgrace.  Swiftboating an American soldier is the worst sort of cowardice, but it is also something else.  It is un-American. ... Patrick Murphy served his country honorably and no one has the right to impugn his service.  Certainly not some punk congressman who never had the courage to wear a uniform himself.

10/10: October Surprise Proof

Perhaps due to questions about the test's actual success, North Korea's announced detonation of a nuclear device has failed to dominate the blogosphere as some might have anticipated. The dominance of bad poll news for the GOP as well as drip-drip items from Mark Foley scandal are dominating the blogosphere. Righty bloggers would love to discuss anything other than Foley, especially years old Rep. Nancy Pelosi (D-CA) speeches on nat'l security, but the issue isn't gaining traction. It has gotten bad enough, that Bill Bennett is blogging pep talks at National Review Online. Can anything knock GOP troubles out of the headlines?

LANDSCAPE: Almost As Popular As 9/11 Conspiracy Theories

Lefty bloggers are near euphoria over the latest round of nat'l poll numbers. AMERICAblog pulls together highlights from CNN's polling:

• 75% said Republicans took inappropriate steps
• 52% said they believe the GOP leadership didn't investigate the charges earlier because they were deliberately covering the scandal up
• 39% approval for Bush
• 28% approval for Congress
• 58% of likely voters to support Democrats
• 34% think most members of Congress deserve re-election

At The Huffington PostAdam Hanft notes that Bush's 33% in Newsweek's poll is "less than the 36 percent of Americans who, according to a Scripps Howard poll, believe that "it is 'very likely' or 'somewhat likely' that federal officials either participated in the attacks on the World Trade Center and the Pentagon or took no action to stop them."

MyDD's Chris Bowers aggregates the last seven generic congressional ballot results and comes up with a 53.7% - 38.1% lead for Dems. Bowers writes: "polls like these do suggest that it is now likely that not only will Democrats win Congress, but that they could very well do so with a majority surpassing anything Republicans have put together since 1994. ... A thirty-seat gain would be our largest in thirty-two years, so that is already shooting pretty high. Let's not get our hopes up beyond that, because I don't see either what good it would do us, or how it is all that probable."

LANDSCAPE II: 'Cause Growing Up Is Hard To Do

Townhall's Hugh Hewitt chides the Washington Post for its 10/9 article that "concludes that the GOP might or might not lose control of the House, and that the Foley fallout might or might not matter in four weeks." Hewitt calls the piece "non-news dressed up as reporting" and notes that Dems "need 15 seats to change hands, and no credible list is ever produced to back up that number, and even though Foleymania swept the MSM for ten days, it took exactly one day of focus on the world and loose nukes and terrorist kooks to refocus large numbers of voters on the stakes." Right Wing News is also still bullish on the GOP's chances: "My current projections, post Foley, are Democrats +5 in the Senate and Democrats +11 to +19 in the House. Despite everything you're hearing, Republican control of the House IS NOT definitely gone yet, although the Foley scandal has certainly made things tougher."

Not all righty bloggers are confident. National Review Online's John Hood Writes:

At meetings of conservative activists and think tankers I've attended over the past few days, a theme of dogged overconfidence about the November balloting was in evidence. Despite the media's Foley fixation and the sea of blue-tinted margins visible in most polling summaries, many activist Republicans I talked to ... continue to believe that the GOP is going to outperform expectations and maintain control of both chambers. ... Many have internalized the Left's unhinged fascination with Karl Rove's genius and expect him to pull some kind of magic trick towards the end of October to deflect the current momentum of the election cycle. ... Basically, I see a lot of people drinking Kool-Aid. It is red. But it has no flavor and no nutritional value.

Despair is widespread enough in conservative circles that Bill Bennett felt the need to grace The Corner with his presence for a pep-talk under the header "Election Day & Staying Home":

Okay, look. Now is the time for all good men-and women-to come to the aid of the party. In 1960, Barry Goldwater famously shouted, "Grow Up Conservatives." It took 20 years for that call to be heeded, ... Ronald Reagan's presidency was about attempting to roll back those 20 years as much as moving forward on a positive agenda. ... You will rue a day with John Conyers as head of the House Judiciary and Pat Leahy as head of the Senate Judiciary. Don't do it. Please don't do it.

NORTH KOREA: A New Hope?

Thankful for anything non-Foley related to come down the pike, righty bloggers are hoping GOP strength on national security can save them in Nov. RedState's question of the day is: "has North Korea just blown up the Democrats' best chance to capture the House?" RCP Blog's Tom Bevan argues "the testing of a nuclear bomb by a rogue regime" is more significant than "a few pervy IMs from a gay Congressman" and goes on to highlight Rep. Nancy Pelosi's (D-CA) opposition to a national missile defense system. The line of attack was quickly picked up by Hugh Hewitt and Captain's Quarters.

National Review Online's Jonah Goldberg isn't sure Bush's record on the issue is one to be proud of: "Lots of folks think this nuke thing is good news for the GOP because it puts national security in play and diminishes the Foley stuff. As political analysis, I think that's probably right. But let's keep in mind that North Korea's nuke testing constitutes a failure of US policy."

On the left, Talking Points Memo's Josh Marshall looks at reports suggesting North Korea's test failed and asks: "Is it possible that the North Korean nuclear test was as big a failure as President Bush's nuclear policy?" Marshall also uses the opportunity to introduce a discussion of the Princeton Project on National Security's final report: "Forging a World of Liberty Under Law, U.S. National Security In The 21st Century." Finally, Marshall looks atGlenn Kessler 's reporting that "a number of senior U.S. officials have said privately that they would welcome a North Korean test, regarding it as a clarifying event" and offers this translation: "The Cheneyites have always wanted a policy of force and confrontation with the NK's. They deep-sixed the Agreed Framework (which kept the plutonium out of commission from 1994-2002). Now they feel confrontation is a fait accompli." The Washington Monthly's Kevin Drum argues the US should give North Korea the "recognition and security guarantees" the desire since such a admission would "literally cost us nothing."

CT SEN: Bottom Of The Barrel

DailyKos' founder Markos Moulitsas wants to help the Sen. Joe Lieberman (I-CT) campaign with their latest project. Team Lieberman has an email out noting Lieberman position at the bottom of the ballot and asks supporters to brainstorm for "the best message to deliver to voters" that will direct them to Lieberman. Markos asks his readers to help and but warns: "And no, you can't suggest 'Scraping the Bottom of the Barrel.' That one is too easy and obvious."

Sirotablog harnessed the power of Lexis-Nexis to catch Lieberman in "a pathological lie." On 10/8 Lieberman said: "There were some things Vice President Cheney said about Saddam having nuclear weapons, I never bought that." Sirota comes up with three quotes contradicting that claim including this one from 2/10/02: "We have reason to believe [Iraq] is developing nuclear weapons."

MyDD's Matt Stoller has video of Lieberman's new ad touting the preservation of the Groton, CT sub base. Stoller explains that Lieberman is attempting to localize the race, and encourages cable exec. Ned Lamont (D) supporters to do all they can to nationalize it. CT Bob tackles the same problem from a different angle posting a graph showing CT taxpayers diminishing return of "money coming back to the state from Washington." CT Bob concludes: "Joe had a couple of good years there when he entered the Senate and seemed to care about Connecticut's needs, but like Joe's interest in US, our rank has crashed to LAST in the nation."

Finally, firedoglake's Jane Hamsher looks at Lieberman's blog response to Lamont's new ad. Lieberman writes: "If you have not had a chance to check out Ned's new ad, please do. It's a scream. Howard Dean would be proud." Hamsher comments: "I don't know what overarching party strategy has everyone staying silent while Joe Lieberman turns the leadership into his media [dog], but whatever it is, it doesn't result in anyone looking very decisive or commanding."

MO SEN: Grading On A Curve

National Review Online's Kate O'Beirne asks readers to remember Sen. Jim Talent's (R) Meet the Press debate with state Aud. Claire McCaskill (D) and wonders "if others agree that Jim Talent turned in the best performance of any of the GOP Senators who have been worked over by Tim Russert."

NJ SEN: Iraq'd

Under the header "Kean (R) turns his back on mother with son in Iraq" DailyKos' founder Markos Moulitsas posts video of a state Sen. Tom Kean (D) trying to placate a critic.

TN SEN: Since When Is Claiming To Be A Lawyer A Good Thing

RedState's Erick Erickson notes that Rep. Harold Ford (D-09) failed the Tennessee Bar Exam which "is not as hard as say California or New York or Virginia." Erickson then posts two clips of Ford on CNN claiming to be a lawyer and asks: "Any student who goes to law school knows that you have to pass the bar exam to be a lawyer. Harold Ford is not a lawyer. Harold Ford's campaign says Ford has never held himself out as a lawyer. Well, if that is true, why then did Ford hold himself out as a lawyer twice on CNN?"

VA SEN: But Blogging IS All About Semi-Incoherent Stream Of Consciousness

Ex-Navy sec. James Webb's Netroots Coordinator and Raising Kaine founder Lowell Feld live blogged 10/9's debate from the Webb "war room." Feld apologized if his "running commentary/stream of consciousness" was "semi-incoherent." Highlights from Feld:

• Allen: Keeps mentioning Ted Kennedy and Hillary Clinton. Uh, George? You're debating JIM WEBB, not Ted Kennedy or Hillary Clinton!
• Webb asks about the Senkaku Islands. Allen has no clue what they are, where they are. George Allen - total blank stare. Webb lectures Allen on something he should KNOW about!
• Allen: Question about racism. "Careless words." "Baseless allegations." "Look at my record." Yeah, right, blame everyone but yourself George; nobody put those words in your mouth!

The official AllenHQ also liveblogged the debate. Their highlights include:

• Jim Webb opens by remarking about how bad things are. The stock market is at an all-time high, and businesses are making profits - profits, I tell you! - yet, he says, 10% of Fortune 500 companies pay no taxes at all. (has he considered the possibility that they pay no taxes because they didn't make a profit in the relevant period?)
• Jim Webb is back to flogging capitalism. Allen confronts him on how many Virginians would be affected by his tax proposals. Webb dodges and asks a question in return. Bickering ensues, after which Senator Allen says that 3 million Virginians have benefited from tax cuts.
• Senator Allen asks Jim Webb about terrorist surveillance and detainee lawsuit issues. Jim Webb responds that he wants more oversight, but says nothing about detainee lawsuits. Allen presses him on habeus rights for detainees, and Webb says that he wants to give more support to people like John McCain on that matter. But Allen voted with McCain on the bill.

National Review Online's takes on Webb's debate statements on taxes and RedState has an interview with author and biographer of George Allen Kathleen Antrim. Erick Erickson writes: "In the course of writing her upcoming book on George Allen, she's thoroughly researched the allegations leveled against him by Jim Webb and partisans in the media. Are the allegations truthful? Do they have any substance? Kathleen Antrim doesn't think so."

FOLEY: Not Just Gay Sex, But Gay Promiscuous Sex!

TPM Cafe's Stirling Newberry argues the Foley scandal is really three scandal's in one: "first is the sex predator scandal of Foley and pages, the second is the cover up scandal which includes Hastert and the FBI, the third is also a sex and cover up scandal, but it is the one which is the glue that holds the entire roving meltdown together. ... The scandal which has turned the entire mess radioactive is the cover up by the Republican elite from their own base of the reality of Gay Republican Promiscuous Sex."

Also at TPM, Paul Kiel provides a Foley scandal timeline going all the way back to 1997 and Todd Gitlinshares a story of "a lifelong Republican now living in Florida" who "wouldn't be caught with an FDR dime in his pocket" that "was able to weather Iraq, Katrina, Abramoff" but was sent "over the edge" by the Foley mess.

On the Right, RCP Blog's John McIntyre argues that "GOP leaders or their staff[s] may have been protecting Foley for a number of reasons, but wanting to save the "seat" is not one of them" sine FL-16 "is a strong Republican district."

BLOGGERS VS. BELTWAY: Et Tu, Carville?

Lefty bloggers are unhappy with revelations concerning big name Dems in Bob Woodard's "State of Denial." Under the header "Did Carville Tip Bush Off to Kerry Strategy" TPM Cafe's M.J. Rosenberg highlights James Carville's interaction with Mary Matalin prior to Sen. John Kerry's (D-MA) decision not to contest OH's '04 results. Taylor Marsh notes the book also fingers Mike McCurry as a "sell out" and then adds her own non-Woodward tip that " Joe Lockhart, in the middle of a heated presidential campaign, started making new business calls out of the Kerry war room giving out confidential campaign information while he was at it. Obviously trying to hedge his bets, he'd call out, give poll data and other info to people, while trying to drum up business for himself. Class act." Marsh concludes: "The DC Dems hired to fight for John Kerry simply sold him out at the first sign of a fight. Except for a loyal group closest to Kerry, many of the people in his employ simply sucked. I can't say it any plainer. Woodward offers more proof on what's been speculated about for a couple of years now."

BLOGGERS VS. BELTWAY II: Not Chump Change

As part of an effort to get House Dems to contribute more to the DCCC, DailyKos' founder Markos Moulitsas posts a list of member pledges to the DCCC Markos notes: "If everyone paid up, that would mean about $10 million more for the DCCC. That's not chump change." Later Markos admits "the list of DCCC giving I've posted is a couple of weeks old" and hopes "many of the members might be up-to-date at this point."

CLINTON: When $2.1 Million Is Not Enough

DailyKos' founder Markos Moulitsas looks at Hotline On Call (go team!) reports that Sen. Hillary Clinton (D-NY) gave $2.1 million from her campaign to the DSCC and writes: "She had over $22 million CoH at the end of Q3, so she can afford it." Kos goes on: "I'm struck at the sacrifices so many of us are making to help out the party and its various candidates. People are seriously dipping into their living expenses to try and make a difference this fall. So I get pissed seeing Dems without serious challengers, with fat campaign accounts, who aren't contributing to the cause. If they expect the party rank and file to help fund its efforts, they need to lead by example.

IMMIGRATION: That Could Be A Long Wait

Captain's Quarters put mostly righty blogger speculation that Pres. Bush planned pocket veto the Secure Fence Act to bed 10/9. CQ reports that "Congress has not formally sent the bill to the President. That means the clock has not started for his signature. The 10-day period starts only after Congress formally prints and delivers the bill for the President to sign into law." The reason for the delay: "Why has Congress waited? ... They and the White House want to schedule the signing for what they see as the maximum impact to the midterm elections. This means waiting for other stories to fall off the front pages."

THOUGHT OF THE DAY: Yeah, "Substantive" Is Dancing With Stars' Tucker Carlson's Job

Above the law sat in on a New Yorker Festival interview of The Daily Show's Jon Stewart, conducted by New Yorker editor David Remnick. ATL has Stewart's thoughts on Ann Coulter, Mark Foley, and John McCain. Stewart also revealed he reads blogs specifically naming The Huffington Post and Instapundit. When asked why The Daily Show doesn't do more "substantive" stuff Stewart responds:

It's not a dodge for us to say, 'We're a comedy program.' We don't have to do their [the MSM's] job too. It's like asking a movie critic, 'Why don't YOU make a movie?' [We are a comedy show,] and that to me is enough.

LEST WE FORGET: The Gift That Keeps On Giving

The Huffington Post's Martin Lewis wraps up his caption contest for a photo of Pres. Bush, Sen. Rick Santorum (R-PA) and ex-Rep. Mark Foley at the signing of the Adam Walsh Child Protection and Safety Act of 2006.

• In fifth place..."While most of the assembled party were happy to see the new Child Protection Act passed, Congressman Foley was troubled by the potential impact on his social life...?"
• In fourth place..."Let us prey!"
• In third place...Above Bush's head: LIAR, Above Santorum's head: LIAR, Above Foley's head: PANTS ON FIRE!
• In second place..."A Wanker, a canker and an underage Spanker."
• AND THE WINNER IS (drum roll please!)...President Bush: "Sex offenders are innovative and resourceful, and so are we. They never stop thinking about new ways to harm our children, and neither do we."

10/9: Immigration Oversight?

Bloggers on the left and right tracked news of North Korea's announced nuclear detonation into the morning. The blame game aside, bloggers on both sides highly recommended Robert Kaplan's Atlantic Monthly piece on North Korea. Domestically, lefty bloggers are still in full Foley scandal mode, but Kausfiles has identified an issue that might depress GOP turnout even more. Kaus notes that Pres. Bush might pocket-veto the Secure Fence Act. Righty bloggers are not pleased by the possibility.

IMMIGRATION: Bush Signed The Bill Before He Vetoed It

Ever on top of the immigration debate Kausfiles notes that Pres. Bush has signed only the appropriations bill for the 700-mile border fence bill, not the Secure Fence Act, which actually requires money to be spent on the fence. Kaus writes: "Under the Constitution Bush has 10 days to sign the bill into law -- a deadline that would seem to be rapidly approaching." Righties were not pleased by the possibility:

• Instapundit: "If the GOP is this stupid, they deserve the brutal drubbing at the polls that will result. Message to the White House: You blew it on Harriet Miers and Dubai Ports because you ignored the early-warning signals from the blogs. You can't afford another such disaster, so if Kaus is right here, you'd better rethink, pronto."
• National Review Online's Jonah Goldberg: "Will Bush Pocket Veto the Fence? Mickey's getting worried. Given the stage in the election cycle, I'm sure he's not the only one."
• Captain's Quarters: "It seems odd that Bush has not yet signed the Secure Fence act, and his opposition to all but a comprehensive approach to immigration may be tempting him to spike the bill. If he thinks that will happen quietly, though, he is sorely mistaken, and that tactic will rebound horribly against a Republican Party that has enough trouble on its hands in these midterm elections."

NORTH KOREA: What Isn't Jimmy Carter's Fault?

Blame for North Korea's claimed nuclear detonation can be fixed to Pres. Bush or ex-Pres. Bill Clinton depending on which side of the blogosphere you read. Lefty reacts include:

• Daily Kos' Meteor Blades: "One thing to ponder: will this apparent test spur the Bush Regime to take action ... against Iran?
• Talking Points Memo's Josh Marshall: "For the US this is a strategic failure of the first order. ... The origins of the failure are ones anyone familiar with the last six years in this country will readily recognize: chest-thumping followed by failure followed by cover-up and denial. The same story as Iraq. Even the same story as Foley."
• AMERICAblog's AJ in DC: "All of this, of course, comes after years of the Bush administration alternately mismanaging and ignoring the North Korea situation. ... this much is clear: this is a diplomatic, security, and non-proliferation failure... and perhaps disaster."
• MyDD's Matt Stoller: "This is directly due to Bush's inept diplomacy. We desperately need a change in direction. Desperately."

On the right:

• Townhall's Hugh Hewitt: "The Clinton-Kim 1994 Agreement, midwifed by Jimmy Carter, bears its fruit. How long until the gangster regime sells its wares to jihadists?"
• National Review Online's James S. Robbins: "The North Korean news agency statement about the purported nuclear test made much of the fact that there was no radiation release. Reported measures of the blast effect ranged between 3.6-4.2 on the Richter scale. A one kiloton weapon produces an effect that measures about 4.0, thus what took place was a detonation of something somewhat more or less than 1000 tons of TNT. But if there are no radiation signals, do we really know it was a nuclear test? It is possible that they just blew up a large conventional munition."
• Instapundit: "The reality is that the international nonproliferation regime has failed again, because although people are willing to talk, nobody's willing to actually do anything significant when a country appears close to going nuclear. See also Iran."

Looking forward, however, agreement could be found.

• From the left, Matthew Yglesias: "The trouble is that nobody especially wants to see the North Korean regime actually collapse. Similarly, would we actually want to see North Korea collapse, or would that make the nuclear situation even worse since, presumably, we don't want to see those weapons and material floating around."
• the right's Outside the Beltway: "Further, Matt Yglesias is right when he notes that the use of sanctions to push the Kim regime over the cliff that they've been heading for the past decade is not without peril. Right now, the nukes are mostly a lever that buys prestige and a high degree of security from invasion. Pushed to the point of desperation, however, it's not inconceivable that Kim could decide that a Hail Mary pass is his best option."

FOLEY: Tin-Foil Hat Department

Lefty bloggers spent the weekend documenting GOP leadership efforts to paint the Foley scandal as part of a "Grand Conspiracy Theory" involving George Soros "and Clinton operatives." Daily Kos' Georgia10 posts an exchange where CNN's Wolf Blitzer asks Rep. Patrick McHenry (R-NC) for evidence of Dem involvement on the timing of the scandal and McHenry declines to provide any. The Huffington Post has video of the exchange. Media Matters takes Fox News' Chris Wallace to task for not challenging Rep. Jack Kingston's (R-GA) assertion that Citizens for Responsibility and Ethics in Washington (CREW) is a "partisan 527 organization." MM writes: "In fact, CREW is a nonpartisan and nonprofit 501(c)(3) organization." AMERICAblog has video of Reps. Rahm Emanuel (D-IL) and Adam Putnam (R-FL) discussing the issue on This Week.

MyDD's Jonathan Singer has video of both Reps. Tom Reynolds (R-NY) and Don Sherwood (R-PA) latest mea culpa ads and later writes: "Just how bad are things for Tom Reynolds, the New York Congressman who chairs the National Republican Campaign Committee? So bad, apparently, that he decided to skip out on his head-to-head appearance with Rahm Emanuel, his Democratic counterpart, on ABC's "This Week." AMERICAblog also has video of Cokie Roberts' This Week thoughts on GOP Foley fall out.

Over at The Huffington Post, Robert Schlesinger asks "Is the GOP Being Undone by a Gay Fifth Column?" and Alec Baldwin has thoughts. Finally TPMReader DK argues the Foley scandal can be turned into a coherent Dem mandate:

The Democrats have to make sure that they frame the election in the next few weeks in such a way that they can convert the political momentum of victory into a strong post-election political position on a range of issues. For example, prior to the Foley scandal, I think it would have been difficult for the Democrats to persuasively argue that their victory was a mandate for fundamental political reform. But now the issue of scandal and corruption has been clearly framed, and Democratic victory would carry with it a strong mandate to clean up public corruption.

On the right, Townhall's Dean Barnett is suffering from Foley-fatigue and at National Review Online's, Greg Pollowitz notes that Franklin Co. Commis. Mary Jo Kilroy's (D) new Foley ads are running "only on Christian and conservative radio stations. This should be a good test if Foley, as an issue, will help Democrats swing the GOP base to the left or if the constant attention to the story will backfire and galvanize Republicans come November."

LANDSCAPE: On Cosmic Blowouts

Outside the Beltway looks at Stu Rothenberg's latest analysis describing the current atmosphere as ripe for "a blowout of cosmic proportions next month" and continues "to hope that Denny Hastert will step aside or that the caucus will dump him but it's probably too late for that to do any good at this point." OTB then hopes Dem incompetence will save the day: "The question over the next four weeks is which set of incompetent leaders do the most damage. Do Dean and company so overplay their hand as to snatch defeat from the jaws of victory? Or do Hastert and company continue to mishandle the Foley mess in such a way as to make a blowout possible?"

RCP Blog's John McIntyre links to his updated House rankings in the wake of the Foley scandal and writes: "Open seats continue to be the biggest problem for the GOP and make up 6 of the top 10 most vulnerable with FL-16 and OH-18 as new entrants. The highest ranked Democratic seat IL-8 continues to drop and doesn't hit the list until #31."

On the left, MyDD's Chris Bowers is cautiously optimistic: "Two months ago, I warned everyone to be prepared for Republicans to close the gap during this election. So far, that hasn't happened, as right now, the situation for Democrats looks just as good, if not better, than it did in mid-August. My long nagging feeling that the election is going to get closer has gradually faded, and it is now being replaced with a strange antsy feeling that things almost look too good."

CT SEN: Now Who's Making Weicker Comparisons

Writing at The Huffington Post, David Sirota looks at a new poll "showing Ned nipping at Lieberman's heels in the traditionally Republican 4th district" and calls for cable exec. Ned Lamont (D) supporters to "stop the navel gazing ... and let's all get to work." MyDD's Matt Stoller has similar thoughts noting: "At this point in 1988, Lieberman trailed Weicker by 14 points, so this one's still got a ways to go."

CT Bob has video of Lamont and retired Gen. Wesley Clark (D) answering questions on the Foley scandal as well as video of Lieberman claiming he never used the phrase "partisan fenzy" to describe the scandal du jour. Firedoglake's Jane Hamsher wants to know whatever happened to claims Lieberman voted with Dems 90% of the time.

MO SEN: Ask Me A Tough One, Tim

Daily Kos' mcjoan watched 10/8's debate between Aud. Claire McCaskill (D) and Sen. Jim Talent on Meet the Press and highlighted this McCaskill response:

MS. McCASKILL:

Tim, as a former prosecutor, I had to handle dozens and dozens of heartbreaking cases where children had been sexually abused, where predators had been doing their work. I know this: That when a 50-year-old man is asking a teenage boy on the Internet for his picture, the response needs to be something other than, "I better go tell the chairman of the Republican Campaign Committee."

MT SEN: Tester Won't Let Feds Track Your Guns

Andrew Sullivan posts video of state Senate Pres. Jon Tester's (D) latest ad attacking the Patriot Act and writes: "Here's another interesting one from Montana: reframing the terrorism debate and defending individual liberty in wartime."

OH SEN: You Say Hippie Like It's A Bad Thing

RedState's machiavel posts a "very clever and effective" two minute video on Rep. Sherrod Brown's (D-13) "hippie" past.

TN SEN: On The Plus Side, He Is African-American

Daily Kos' mcjoan describes Rep. Harold Ford Jr. (D-09) as "not exactly a progressive's ideal candidate" but reminds readers "he is as an African-American running in a very Red Southern state, his battle is uphill, so we can't expect our ideal in this race." Mcjoan goes on to praise Ford for his 10/8 debate against ex-Chattanooga Mayor Bob Corker (R) writing, "Unlike Joe Lieberman, Ford insisted that bipartisanship requires more than capitulation. Based on this performance, Ford is the type of moderate bipartisan Democrat that we can embrace, because he knows that moderation is part of the Democratic Party, and that extremism defines the Republican Party."

VA SEN: Where There Is Smoke There Is Straw That Will Set The Camel's Back On Fire

MyDD's Jonathan Singer recommends readers check out the full AParticle on Sen. George Allen's (R) failure to disclose stock options in one company and interceded on behalf of another. Singer predicts: "Taken as a whole, the article is fairly damning and provides yet another piece of negative press for Allen -- news that could represent the final straw for the Virginians who still had faith in Allen even after reports about his race issues."

The official AllenHQ comments on the story: "Leave out context, and you can make sense out of nonsense. Leave out details, and you can make anything seem like a scandal.Just because there's smoke, that doesn't mean there's fire. Sometimes, it's just people blowing smoke." AllenHQ then offers a detailed response.

Over at Raising Kaine, Eric posts pdfs that can be printed and then handed out for ex-Navy Sec. James Webb (D). Eric writes: "If you pay for copies, or have them professionally printed, please notify the Webb campaign of the amount as an in-kind contribution. Remember - grassroots played a big role in getting Jim Webb to where he is today. We have one month to finish the job and help get him to the Senate." Also at Raising Kaine, Webb's Netroots Coordinator and Raising Kaine founder Lowell Feld interviews Webb's wife Hong Le Webb.

Finally, The A-Team picks up on an article from The Nation mentioning Webb's use of Karl Marx and Friedrich Engels in speeches and comments: "So, on the one hand you have Senator George Allen who quotes and paraphrases Thomas Jefferson, author of the Declaration of Independence. On the other hand, you have Jim Webb who looks to Karl Marx and Friedrich Engels for inspiration, the authors of the Communist Manifesto. That's a pretty stark choice, Virginia."

ROMNEY: What's Raised In MA, Should Stay In MA

IA's Caucus Cooler is still discussing The Fix's 10/8 analysis on the RGA's decision to buy TV ads featuring MA Gov. Mitt Romney (R) for MA LG Kerry Healey (R). The Cooler was critical of Romney and the RGA, but forwards a post in the tipjar: "Romney has probably raised a crapload of money in Massachusetts. Those donors are likely pressuring him into spending money there. That's clearly the other side to this story. ... That being said, there are A LOT of competitive Governor's races out there that could use the $$$. And it's still questionable that the RGA puts Mitt himself in the ad. You could've run Healey ads without a moderately popular Governor in them."

D.R. Tucker at Right Angle Blog believes Dem's are making extra efforts to defeat Healey to embarrass Romney: "The Democrats clearly sense that Mitt Romney is, as of now, the strongest potential Republican contender for 2008, and realize that if Healey, his second-in-command and close ally, is defeated, it will weaken Romney's prospects for success in the 2008 GOP primary."

MCCAIN: It's Only Purchasing Influence When Others Do It

PoliPundit's KnightHawk links to a APstory on Sen. John McCain's (R-AZ) efforts in South Carolina including "handing out checks from" Straight Talk PAC to "key GOP legislators" and $1K checks to "leaders from state college Republican groups." KnightHawk comments: "The senator is handing out $1000 checks, hmm buying up those votes a early aren't we senator? Surely this doesn't appear to be purchasing influence now does it? Subtle John, real subtle."

BLOGGERS VS. BELTWAY: Dems Support The (Canadian) Troops

Led by Michelle Malkin and Charles Johnson righty bloggers hit the DNC 10/8 for posting a photo of a "hurting" US soldier due to "GOP broken promises." Blog P.I. explains the DNC's problem: "The pictured soldier is actually Canadian, and Johnson's readers quickly located more stills, providing conclusive evidence that a Democratic Photoshopper had doctored the image to remove a medal evidently believed to be a dead giveaway (but embarrassingly leaving another - the funny lapel pin)."

THOUGHT OF THE DAY: No Time For Losers, Cause We Are The Champions

MyDD's Matt Stoller advises Dems "to realize that we are winners, and learn to act like it." Stoller is looking for the first issue Dems should fight for:

I think it's more important to focus on the first fight that's going to happen. It's critical that the Democrats pick one specific fight, fight it, and humiliate their right-wing opponents. Be vindictive. Treat them the way you were treated. It's not just fair, it's immoral to do otherwise. They must pay for the norms they violated, the brutal civic tissue they ripped up for power. And then, in your first fight, pick one aggregated of right-wing power, and crush it. ... Just. Don't. Be. Nice.

LEST WE FORGET: Introducing The Mark Foley Award For Youth Mentorship

Extreme Mortman believes "it's only a matter of time before the name Mark Foley is rehabilitated and politicians flock to be associated with him. ... Not so sure? Then consider the inspiring example set by Sen. John Kerry and censured former Rep. Gerry Studds." Mortman than links to Kerry's website including:

• In 2001 the Boston Harbor Island Alliance gives Kerry the Gerry Studds Stewardship Award.
• On December 18, 2000 Kerry celebrates the Senate transferring the U.S. Coast Guard Station in Scituate to NOAA, which would use the facility to support the Gerry E. Studds National Marine Sanctuary. Kerry: "This amendment ... honors the legacy of dedication to these issues of former Representative Gerry Studds."

Mortman concludes: "So the only question may be, what will the first Mark Foley award be given for, and who will get it?"

Blogometer Extra

BLOGGERS VS. BELTWAY: Labor Pains

  Enemy combatant, Pluto, supervisor.  What do those three have in common?  They've all recently been redefined amid much consternation.  On Tuesday, the National Labor Relations Board "redefined and expanded the definition of 'supervisor,' potentially taking away the federally protected freedom to form a union from 8 million workers," rued Tula Connell at Daily Kos.  "Under federal labor law, supervisors are barred from forming unions."

  The cases that yielded the NLRB action are collectively referred to as "Kentucky River" and involves a group of nurses; but, as Connell points out, "it's the lead case Oakwood Healthcare Inc. that creates a new definition of supervisor."  She continues:

The board's new definition essentially enables employers to make a supervisor out of any worker who has the authority to assign or direct another and uses independent judgment.  Amazingly, the board also ruled that a worker can be classified as a supervisor if he or she spends as little as 10 percent to 15 percent of his or her time overseeing the work of others. ... Under today's ruling, ... hundreds of thousands of workers ... now could be classified as supervisors, and so cannot belong to a union.  And not only nurses: journalists, building trades workers, port employees and many, many, others may now be considered supervisors under U.S. labor law and so barred from joining unions.

  Union might, once a crucial part of political support, has waned in recent years as the American economy has changed with the times, and as business-friendly politicians have steadily undermined it.  It's not lost on Connell, who says, "[T]he Bush-backed NLRB regularly has ruled in favor of corporate interests over those of workers: The board has taken away workers' protections and limited workers' freedom to form unions, including workers with disabilities, temporary employees and graduate employees.

  Nathan Newman at TPM Cafe puts it bluntly, "That means if [workers] say a positive thing about unions, their bosses are free to fire them at will."  He peers further into nightmarish workplace scenarios:

[T]hese kinds of exclusions means that other workers rights are also undermined.  The fact that independent contractors can't unionize means that many firms can contract out work to block or undermine unionization.  Undocumented workers in the workplace can be threatened with deportation to break unions.

And the new expansive definition of "supervisor" means that more workers will be given nominal supervisory responsibilities to undermine their right to unionize-- and lock every union vote in endless delays as companies litigate who is and who is not a supervisor.  Even if the workers "win", the election will probably be delayed long enough to kill the union drive.

And here are the dynamics when large numbers of workers are declared to be supervisors-- it means that friends in the workplace immediately are turned into enemies as supervisors are told to spy on their friends or lose their jobs.  Instead of a union being about workers challenging the power of top management, it is turned into an internal workplace civil war.

But divide and conquer, pitting people against each other based on race, ethnicity, gender and now menial distinctions in authority on the shopfloor are the tools of the trade for the corporate rightwing. This decision is just one more bullet to the rights of working Americans.

  "[F]or this administration, simple legalities are not the issue," writes Jordan Barab at firedoglake, "crushing labor unions is."

  That's not what the Chamber of Commerce believes, as Kevin Drum at The Washington Monthly says.  He quotes:

The decision will probably affect primarily work sites where union organizing is going on, said Stephen A. Bokat, general counsel at the U.S. Chamber of Commerce.  "Where there are established collective bargaining relationships," he said, "these issues with regard to supervisors are very well established and I doubt most employers will totally upset their workplaces to meet that definition."

  Those who believe that "semi-cheerful spin, please raise your hand," remarks Drum.  "I imagine it will take no more than a few hours for some enterprising CEO with an 'established collective bargaining relationship' to realize what a great opportunity this is to send his company's unions into turmoil."

  James Joyner at Outside The Beltway has a wholly different, pragmatic tack.  "Do businesses prefer to deal with workers as individuals rather than as a group?&bsp; Sure.  Would they prefer to avoid the risk of being blackmailed with group walkouts and forced to pay workers more than they would command in a free market?  You bet."  He continues:

At the end of the day, however, the United Autoworkers can still try to organize the vast majority of the nurses at Oakwood Healthcare Inc. ... If 127 represents “two-thirds of the total bargaining unit,” then there are roughly 192 nurses at the facility.  Of those, only 12 were added to the “supervisory” category as a result of this ruling.  That’s a little over 6 percent.  Does that sound like an inordinately high number of supervisors?  Indeed, it sounds rather low to me for a profession in which at least an associate’s degree and often a bachelor’s degree is an entrance requirement.

That an auto workers’ union is trying to organize nurses shows how much the economy has changed since the bad old days.  These aren’t low skilled, geographically bound workers stuck doing dangerous work at the only factory in town but rather highly skilled, high demand, mobile workers in a burgeoning industry doing relatively pleasant work for which they spent years training.  Hospitals already have to pay high wages and offer competitive benefits to attract nurses, who are in shortage in much of the country.  The idea that they need to band together in solidarity for protection is absurd.

  Speaking of absurd, news jester Stephen Colbert explains the whole NLRB schmear in his unique, tongue-in-cheek way in a video available here that several of the above writers referenced.

  But Connell at Kos has little use for levity with so sobering a issue.  She rues, "How did we as a nation come to the point where those in power take away the rights of millions of workers to exercise the freedom to form unions--one of the pillars of the Bill of Rights?"

[by Mike Sheehan]

10/6: The Foley Babies

Plenty of right bloggers still believe the GOP can survive the Foley scandal with their cong. majorities intact. But if scandal stays in the MSM's focus, and if evangelicals don't come out to support a sex scandal-tainted GOP leadership, might an incoming Dem class be fairly labeled "Foley Babies" in the same vein that the class of '74 was labeled Watergate Babies. Would such a moniker help or hurt Dem efforts to put forward a positive agenda? Andrew Sullivan already is lamenting the cover the Foley scandal provides other GOP malfeasance and Talking Points Memo's Josh Marshall felt obliged to make the case that the Dem tide started well before Foley's troubles.

FOLEY: It's "Karmic" Payback Time

MyDD's Jonathan Singer looks at results form four recent national polls and concludes: "As voters have more time to digest this story, it's difficult to imagine that these already terrible numbers for Republicans will get any better. And given that this story will not likely leave our television screens or newspapers any time soon, it's fairly safe to say that the GOP is in for a rough few weeks between now and election day."

The Foley scandal is so bad for the GOP, conservative Pres. Bush critic Andrew Sullivan worries midterm election losses will punish GOPers for the wrong transgressions: "Part of me is distressed that the GOP could lose not because of spending recklessness, corruption, torture, big government, pork, and a hideously botched war ... but because of a sex scandal which doesn't even have (so far as we know) any actual sex. But part of me also sees the karmic payback here. They rode this tiger; now it's turning on them. And it's dinner time."

On a similar vein, Talking Points Memo's Josh Marshall argues the GOP was doomed before America was familiar with Maf54: "There are already a number of Republicans arguing that the election tide was beginning to turn their way before Hurricane Foley came ashore last Friday. Not so. And it's important for everyone to realize that is not just rhetoric. It's the uncomfortable truth. We don't. But whatever happens on November 7th, the GOP wasn't on the upswing before Foley. They were back on the skids."

The Plank's Michael Crowley, on the other hand, argues Foley could be good news for GOP candidates: "Still, if people outside of Washington mainly see this as a story about one pervert, that could be better for Republicans than some of the more substantive alternatives. If you're a GOP candidate, would you rather moralistically denounce Mark Foley's behavior -- or defend your position on Iraq? I think I might choose the former ..."

FOLEY II: Denial Ain't Just A Book By Bob Woodward, Ya Know

More and more righty bloggers are arguing the Foley scandal will blow over by election day, leaving plenty of time for a GOP comeback. RCP Blog's Tom Bevan uses non-GOP free fall in 10/5's AP-Ipsos poll results to make his case. Others write:

• Power Line's Paul Mirengoff: "I doubt that Rep. Foley's misconduct or the ins-and-outs concerning Speaker Hastert's response will have much bearing on the decision of voters in, say, Kentucky, Connecticut or Indiana to return, say, Anne Northup, Christopher Shays, or Chris Chocola to Congress. The fate of these candidates presumably will turn on their individual popularity in the district and how voters believe they and their country are faring."
• Townhall's Dean Barnett: "So how will it play out? The Republican leadership will get its act together. The story will soon die of old age; news gets old much faster in this, the era of the Internet. ... At the end of the day, Foley will be revealed as one very weird guy. And the Democrats will look more bilious and impotent than ever, spewing anger at Republicans about deeds done in the past while having no plans they're willing to share about the future."
• Townhall's Hugh Hewitt: "But there are many, many reasons to be optimistic about how this story will actually play out. ... The Kos, Dr. Lamontenstein, also thinks this is a winner. Again, check the scoreboard on his successes over the past four years. ... Stocks are soaring and gas prices are falling. ... To be a pessimist requires a complete buy-in to the proposition that the voters are stupid. I don't think so.

Not everyone on the right was seeing rainbows:

• Outside the Beltway's James Joyner: "It's one of the strange ironies of American politics, and perhaps democracy period, that big screw-ups are often given a pass by the voters because they are just too complicated to resonate while relatively minor scandals can incite mass outrage because of their simplicity. The GOP doesn't deserve to lose power over the Foley mess but it may wind up being the proverbial straw that broke the camel's back."
• Captain's Quarters: "This is a real scandal, and attempting to blame the Democrats will gain Republicans nothing. Had the GOP handled this properly in the beginning, it could have remained isolated to Foley himself, as it should be I don't believe that they intended to cover up any misdeeds by Mark Foley, but I do think they put partisan concerns ahead of their responsibilities to Congress, the pages, and the voters."
• Right Angle Blog's Matt Lewis: "Tom DeLay's departure has already hurt Republicans to a degree that few expected. Clearly, Congressional Republicans are missing DeLay's leadership and insistence that Members behave like a team. I can't help but believe that if DeLay were still in office, Republicans wouldn't be turning on each other right now."

FOLEY III: Bamboozled

For a few hours 10/5, it looked like righty bloggers may have gotten the break they needed to turn the Foley scandal around thanks to Drudge Report reports that:

According to two people close to former congressional page Jordan Edmund, the now famous lurid AOL Instant Message exchanges that led to the resignation of Mark Foley were part of an online prank that by mistake got into the hands of enemy political operatives, the DRUDGE REPORT can reveal... Developing...

Hot Air's Allahpundit has a lengthy posts following the ups and downs of 10/5 righty reaction to Foley gate. All hopes were crushed by ABC News' The Blotter's report that three more pages are claiming to have been on the receiving end of sexual advances from Foley.

Talking Points Memo's Josh Marshall couldn't help but gloat: "I'm shocked, shocked, I tell you. That Drudge bamboozlement about the Foleygate cybersex IMs being a 'prank'. The kid's lawyer says Drudge's piece was "a piece of fiction."

HASTERT: Kos' Greatest Fear

Speaker Denny Hastert (R-IL) fatigue has set in for some righty bloggers while others argue the release of disastrous internal GOP polling should Hastert stay is meant to pave the way to his resignation.

AMERICAblog recaps the "FACTS" of the case against Foley and DailyKos' founder Markos Moulitsas calls Hastert's resignation his "greatest fear."

Finally, TPM Cafe's Greg Sargent is keeping a whip count of GOPers committed to voting for Speaker Hastert in 1/07.

HOUSE LANDSCAPE: Landslide Insurance?

DailyKos' founder Markos Moulitsas looks at House rankings from MyDD's Chris Bowers and National Journal's Chuck Todd that categorize CA-11 as "the kind of race that we might pick up in a landslide, wave election, but theoretically not amongst the most competitive" and comments: "So why is the NRCC dumping hundreds of thousands into this race? Republicans betray their own precarious position in this race by continuing to sink money into the district.

SENATE LANDSCAPE: Firewall Success?

MyDD's Chris Bowers adds 10/5's Reuters/Zogby results to his "five poll averages" and concludes: "If these polls show a pattern that might be reflected by current committee strategy, they show that the Republican "firewall" strategy of all but abandoning Pennsylvania, Rhode Island, and Montana in favor of defending Ohio, Tennessee and Missouri might be having its desired effect for Republicans. Democrats are pulling away in the former three states, while Republicans are improving in the previous three states."

LANDSCAPE '06: From Royal to Navy

National Review Online's John Hood looks at recent Pew polling numbers on trends in partisanship and notes that while "you can see a modest improvement in Democratic voter preference over the past couple of cycles, but it is pretty much limited to the Blue States." Hood concludes: "While there are plenty of much-watched, highly competitive races for House and Senate, reflect on how little people are talking about the massive leads of Democrats retaking governor's mansions in New York and Massachusetts. We're talking a 50-point Elliot Spitzer lead. Deval Patrick's average lead over Kerry Healey in Massachusetts is 32 points. Blue States are shading into navy, yes, but that doesn't mean it's curtains for the GOP."

CT SEN: Anyone Have Pictures Of Lieberman With Foley?

MyDD's Matt Stoller bemoans cable exec. Ned Lamont's (D) continued polling weakness and calls for a renationalization of the race "because it's on grand questions of national purpose and morality where Ned Lamont has the advantage. If it's a localized race, Lieberman is the known quantity. Lieberman's even running on that theme, of experience. Lamont must make the case for change, and the progressive movement is where that case is being made. The Foley scandal and the torture bill, where Lieberman adopts the far right status quo, are creating new ground every day for this race to be reshaped."

Fellow lefty bloggers were eager to point out similarities in Sen. Joe Lieberman (I-CT) and GOP Foley talking points:

• The official Lamont Blog: "From the president on Iraq, to child predator protectors in the House, Joe Lieberman refuses to hold ANYONE accountable. It's time for change in Washington, D.C. It's time to elect leaders willing to do the right thing even when its odds with a good talking point.
• Sirotablog: "So let me get this straight: Joe Lieberman's major reaction to this awful, disgusting and horrifies scandal is to berate as "partisan" those who want just a smidgeon of accountability?"
• firedoglake's Jane Hamsher: "Hey Harry Reid, he's talkin' about you. Are you gonna take that - again? "

MI SEN: It's Almost Like Giuliani, McCain, And Romney Have Something Other Than Love For Bouchard In Common

Right Angle Blog's Robert Bluey notes positive poll movement for Oakland Co. Sheriff Mike Bouchard and highlights upcoming support: "Following a highly successful visit from former New York Mayor Rudy Giuliani (R) this week, Bouchard will soon welcome both Sen. John McCain (R-AZ) and MA Gov. Mitt Romney (R) to the state."

MO SEN: What's Wrong With A Little Communism Among Dems?

RedState's Erick Erickson posts video from an unidentified source on a pay dispute between activist group ACORN and some employees. Erickson writes: "ACORN -- the activist group that is largely communist, has admitted that it is supporting Claire McCaskill. The problem is that ACORN is not allowed to participate in political activities. They've been caught on tape."

TN SEN: The Umbrella Defense

DailyKos' founder Markos Moulitsas notes Rep. Harold Ford Jr.'s (D-09) use of the Foley scandal to deflect an NRSC ad attacking Ford's Playboy bunny connections and writes: "Foley is a great rebuttal to whatever crap the GOP hurls at our candidates. ... And Foley will continue to pay political dividends to Democrats not because they are taking advantage of a horrible situation, but because Republicans refuse to be held accountable for their screw ups."

Townhall's Dean Barnett doesn't think the argument will fly: "If the "crap" hurled at Democratic candidates includes charges of serious personal dereliction (which I don't think is the case with Ford partying with the hotties, but I'm permissive in such regards), the fact that there is was a depraved Congressman in Florida whose sins were even greater hardly seems like a successful umbrella defense."

VA SEN: If Only Pres. Bush Was On The Ballot

Ex-Navy sec. James Webb's (D) Netroots Coordinator and Raising Kaine founder Lowell Feld looks at Gallup numbers showing Sen. George Allen (R) up 48%-45% and sees "a tie ballgame." Feld also notes: "One interesting bit of information from the Gallup poll is that Virginia likely voters, by a 13-point margin (37%-24%), say they would be "more likely to vote for a candidate who opposes [President] Bush" than one who supports Bush.

Also at Raising KaineNick Stump has video of Webb on CNN and writes: "Though Wolf Blitzer kept trying to pull Jim into a discussion about Allen's racism and Jim's long-ago position on women in the service, Jim took the high ground once again. At one point, Jim bluntly asked, "Can we talk about foreign policy now?"

BLOGGERS VS. MSM: Will Rathergate Ever Die?

After RedState's Dan McLaughlin posted an email from "VAC@cbsnews.com" to the RNC asking:

Please send me information on how I can become an intern for some perverted, phony family-values Congressman. I know there's no shortage of Republican hypocrites on the Hill, so please rush me the info ASAP. And don't forget to keep covering-up your dirty little secrets, it makes great fodder for your enemies.

The Public Eye's Vaughn Ververs responded: "CBS News employee Vincent Cammisa, a tape archivist at the network. ... The opinions of a tape archivist do not speak for a news organization, let alone an entire industry. But it's absolutely fair for critics to air such an ill-advised e-mail when it's sent from a CBS News account."

McLaughlin responded: "But while I agree that we can't draw broad conclusions about the entire culture of CBS News from a tape archivist, the attitudes behind them are something else. In the long term, the job of restoring the credibility CBS was leaching away for decades even before Rathergate is going to require an active effort to bring in personnel who reflect a less monolithic political perspective.

BLOGGER VS. MSM II: At Least Tom Edsall Ain't Blogging About It

National Review Online's David Frum is blogging while reading Bob Woodward's State of Denial. A sample:

Woodward characters are always saying things like "We've got to get this on track" and "Fix it." Bold, decisive - and Woodward loves reporting this boldness and decisiveness. But when things don't get back on track, when they don't get fixed, the question, "why not?" does not long or deeply interest our chronicler. It is a remarkable fact, but America's most famous living reporter on politics and government is not really very seriously interested in either politics or government.

BLOGGERS VS. BELTWAY: The Bloggers Win The Pennant! The Bloggers Win The Pennant!

Right Angle Blog's Ivy Sellers links to video of the Heritage Foundation's panel discussion on "How Bloggers Claimed Their First Major Policy Victory."

Moderated by Heritage's Tim Chapman the panel included Bill Allison of the Sunlight Foundation, N.Z. Bear of Porkbusters.org, Rebecca Carr of Cox News Service, Justin Rood of TPMmuckraker.com and Mark Tapscott of the Washington Examiner.

THOUGHT OF THE DAY: Robert Johnson For Senate

The Washington Monthly's Kevin Drum looks at 60 Minutesreports that the federal no-fly list includes names like "Gary Smith, John Williams and Robert Johnson." Drum writes: "You know, I'll bet if there were some senator named Robert Johnson, the FBI would figure out a way to make this list a little more user-friendly. Maybe we should try to elect one."

LEST WE FORGET: The Sane, Fun, Adjusted, Grown-Up Mr. Slave

Tired of GOP conflation of homosexuality and deviant behavior Andrew Sullivanquotes South Park's Chef: "Children, there's a BIG difference between gay people and Mr. Garrison. Do you understand that?" Sullivan comments:

I fear, Chef, that many still don't. South Park, as usual, gets it right. It has gay characters who are actually sane, fun, adjusted, grown-up. They're caricatures, but based on an acceptance of the reality of actual gay life: Big Gay Al and Mr Slave, to cite two such. I'm so glad they eventually found each other. One critical thing they have in common: They are out of the closet. Then there's the self-hating, closet-case, Mr Garrison, and Butters's closeted, dysfunctional dad, Mr Stotch. Mark Foley is both Mr Garrison and Mr Stotch - in Congress.

Blogometer Extra

Election 06 Round-Up

CA 04: You're The Man, Charlie Brown

  LindaR at Daily Kos was most impressed by Democratic challenger Charlie Brown's "counter-event" to incumbent GOP Rep. John Doolittle's gala for visiting President George Bush: a barbecue open to the public.

  "At the Bush/Doolittle event," LindaR writes, "Republicans still willing to drink the kool-aid were charged $2,000 per head for the privelege."  Brown, on the other hand, "invited citizens ... to a franks and beans feed ... and asked for donations" of $20 a person.  "But," she notes, "no one would be turned away for the lack of funds."

  LindaR continues:

The campaign was planning for 150 people, but by the afternoon they thought maybe 300 might show up.  The estimate now is between 450 and 550. ... The place was packed. ... The campaign was hoping to raise about $2000-$4000.  They told me a while ago they are still counting, and so far they've counted over $10,000. ... People are on the brink of giddy over this campaign.

  She gives props the many "great" speakers in attendance, including former GOP congressman Pete McCloskey who, as she exclaims, "is so disgusted by this Republican Party leadership that he is working for Democratic candidates."

CO GOV: Board Silly

  Bobby Clark at activistblog ProgressNowAction announced two winners of a contest in which network members submitted slogans to be put up on mobile billboards that "will keep traveling around the state" through the election for Colorado governor.

  The two winning "amazingly creative" slogans were "All Hat No Cattle" featuring GOP candidate Bob Beauprez and President Bush side by side, Stetsons in hand or on head.  Even more cutting was the second winning entry, with a smiling Beauprez standing next to his duplicate and "BOTH WAYS BOB" spread across them... and on the side, the slogan "More Waffles than Belgium," all knocking Beauprez's apparent penchant for flip-flopping.

  Recent polls in Colorado have Beauprez trailing badly against the Democratic candidate, Bill Ritter.

PA 10: Sherwood Be Nice

  Eve Fairbanks at The Plank wisecracks about incumbent GOP Rep. Don Sherwood's newest ad, in which the Congressman, who had earlier admitted to an adulterous affair, is "begging" for voters' forgiveness.  The ad is available here.

  Fairbanks says, "This ad actually makes me kind of sad.  The guy looks so ... morose and depressed.  And his mistress was so much older than a page!"

PA GOV: Trumpeting Swann

  GOP gubernatorial challenger Lynn Swann, he of NFL legendry, took on Dem incumbent Gov. Ed Rendell in their first debate, and per pennpatriot at Redstate, he acquitted himself marvelously.

  "If tonight's debate was an actual football game," pennpat writes, "Swann would have been named the player of the game.  The fact is Swann had a very surprising Superbowl like debate performance against a very tough, seasoned political veteran."

  He continues:

Not only did Swann demonstrate a command of the issues, he even seemed more comfortable debating them than our three year, incumbent Governor.  During the debate Swann even caught Rendell using his own tax cut numbers to criticize Swann's plan to cut business taxes. ... For being a political newcomer Swann was unusually calm and poised during the debate.  He was confident.  And in my opinion, I think Swann actually may have benefited from debating Rendell on his home field of Pittsburgh.  Swann had his game face on and Rendell looked like he was washed up.

  It appears folks in the Keystone State agree, as a KDKA website poll quoted by pennpatriot indicated that "71% of viewers think Lynn Swann won the debate."
[Mike Sheehan]

10/5: Tracker Torture

Campaign trackers may have existed before blogs, but the medium does make their output more accessible. Thanks to small, low-cost cameras, almost all major league campaigns now employ (or at least have full-time volunteer) trackers tracking their opponents. Is there a standard of decency that should apply to the behavior of these trackers? Or will campaigns quickly disavow/ignore them the way the do bloggers intimately involved in their campaigns? Stories in MD and VA SEN today deal with these questions.

HASTERT: Measuring The Corner Drapes

Calls for Speaker Denny Hastert's resignation continue to trickle in, but the consensus that Hastert will not resign before November is matched by the consensus that he will not retain a leadership position past January. National Review Online's Rich Lowry forwards GOP strategist email: "I thought yesterday he was out of the woods, but today I'm not so sure. ... Sadly, he's probably in his last twom onths in leadership. I don't think he'll survive in January when he comes back."

Also on National Review Online, Greg Pollowitz wonders "how would a majority party in Congress actually go about replacing its leadership while its members are scattered across the country?" Kathryn Jean Lopezfires back : "Greg, think the answer is: They would do it by conference call, as they did when the Senate shifted from Lott to Frist." Finally, The Corner's John Podhoretz thinks all the Hastert speculation is beside the point: "Hastert will quit or he won't quit or he will take a nice long trip in a hot-air balloon. And Shimkus will...oh, who cares what Shimkus does. Doesn't matter. Madame Speaker, you may start measuring the drapes."

Over at RedState, Erick Erickson tries to look at the bright side of being in the minority:

"A Democratic Congressman with whom I have very good relations (no, not the Mark Foley kind) was drowning his sorrows tonight at the thought of going into the majority now. His point was that if the Dems lose again this year, they can blame Pelosi and replace her and will inevitably take control in 2008. But, because of Republican incompetence... the Democrats are going to take the majority this year, will have to make Pelosi the Speaker or look really bad, and then she will screw up everything for the Democrats and destroy their majority for the next 25 years. He assures me that this is a widespread sentiment, particularly among Southern and Midwestern members of the Democratic delegation who would rather see Speaker Hoyer or Speaker Anybody but Pelosi."

Perhaps looking ahead to January, Mark Kilmer at RedState is already "building a case against Roy Blunt."

On the left, Talking Points Memo's Josh Marshall looks at Bluegrass Report news that Rep. Ron Lewis (KY-02) canceled a campaign stop with Hastert and writes: "Face it, the guy's radioactive." Over at MyDD, Jerome Armstrong pleads for Hastert to "stay a little longer" so he can further damage the GOP.

FORDHAM: The Michael Or Fredo Corleone Of The Velvet Mafia?

The Plank's Michael Crowley spoke with a non-Capitol Hill gay GOPer about the tuffle between Team Hastert and ex-Rep. Tom Reynolds (R-NY) Kirk Fordham. Said GOPer believes GOP leadership is: "mak[ing] it look like the gay velvet mafia is down there protecting Foley. ... Basically what you see them trying to do is say, "There's this cabal of gays on Capitol Hill who were trying to keep this quiet." Crowley then notes that David Corn has a list of possible gay GOPers "drawn up by gay politicos," but Corn declines to name names. Wonkette isn't buying Corn's ethical act: "David Corn asks "How can I score political points while maintaining smug moral superiority?" and comes up with the perfect answer: Name the senators and representatives who employ the homosexuals, but not the actual gay people working for them."

Righty blogger Gay Patriot also takes Corn to task for assuming all gays identify more closely with their sexual orientation then their citizenship. And Right Wing News looks at one righty bloggers decision to reveal the identity of Maf54's IMing partner.

Back on the left, Talking Points Memo's Josh Marshall has many thoughts on the Washington Post's article on Fordham's tenure with Foley and Reynolds, and reminds readers "I always try to be as clear as I can on this site in distinguishing between what is reporting and what is speculation informed by reporting. I hope I've done so here." Meanwhile, Andrew Sullivan offers up self contradictory Fordham quotes.

LANDSCAPE: Packin' Heat

TPM Cafe's Greg Sargent reports new FEC filings show the National Rifle Association is spending almost $500K on radio and tv in MN, MO, MT, and PA.

CT SEN: So, Don Imus And Joe Lieberman Walk Into A Bar ...

CT Blog has video of Sen. Joe Lieberman (I-CT) and Don Imus having "a laugh over torture" on Imus' 10/4 show. Lieberman tells Imus: "I have particularly appreciated your interrogation of some of the other Democratic elected officials. And I'm very comforted to know that your interrogation is not covered by Common Article 3 of the Geneva Conventions." The unofficial Lamont Blog writes: "Simply disgusting. He also refused to call for Hastert's resignation in the interview."

Firedoglake's Jane Hamsher picks up on Lieberman's refusal to call for Hastert's resignation: "Joe Lieberman does not want to take responsibility for his mismanagement of the disastrous war in Iraq, nor does he want to hold Dennis Hastert responsible for his role in this sordid affair. This may be Tortureman's definition of what it means to be "bipartisan," but it is not mine."

MD SEN: Looking For Apologies In All The Wrong Places

Wizbang's Lorie Byrd reprints LG Michael Steele's (R) call for Rep. Ben Cardin (D-03) to apologize for his official tracker's filming of a conversation Steele had with two mothers whose sons died in Iraq. Steele writes: "The filming of this conversation demonstrates a callous disregard for families who have lost a loved one and is an indefensible invasion of privacy." Right Angle Blog's Robert Bluey notes that Steele asks for apologies from "three Democrats, plus Maryland Democratic Party Chairman Terry Lierman" and also wonders where his apology from Sen. Chuck Schumer (D-NY) for his staff's illegal search of Steele's credit history.

VA SEN: Macaca 2.0

Ex-Navy Sec. James Webb's (D) "new Siddarth, the new Macaca," Joan VT at Raising Kaine has a two and a half minute video of her recent work at the Shenandoah Airport. No new bombshells here, but a "doofus' bald spot" is featured prominently.

On the right, the official AllenHQ looks at Daily Press reports that VA-05 hopefull Al Weed (D) accepted the resignation of a campaign staffer after it was reveled she was the author of a derogatory email making fun of Sen. George Allen (R). AllenHQ writes: "Will Jim Webb demonstrate the same level of personal dignity and honor by denouncing his own campaign staff's far more offensive 'error[s] in judgement'? Or does Jim Webb support his campaign staff when they claim or promote the claims that Senator Allen is a racist?"

Under the header "Deep vs. Shallow" The A-Team links to a PolicySoup, the blog of the Fairfax County Chamber of Commerce's Government Affairs Department, post featuring the candidates thoughts on research and development. The A-Team writes: " On the issue of research and development, Senator Allen's response simply blows away Jim Webb's simpleton statement."

ROMNEY: On The Plus Side, He's Out-Polling Gay Atheists

Although it pains IA's Caucus Cooler to bring up the subject, CC looks at results from a new Gallup poll showing "only 29% think [Americans] are ready for a Mormon President." This compares to "61% said they think we're ready for a woman, 58% an african-american, 55 percent said we are ready for a Jewish President. ... The only groups that scored lower were atheists and homosexuals."

IMMIGRATION: Intellectual Savages

Michelle Malkin has video of Minutemen Project co-founder Jim Gilchrist's 10/4 address to the Columbia University College Republicans devolving into a riot at the behest of what Power Line's Scott Johnson calls "intellectual savages." Malkin writes: "Every Columbia U. alum should be assailing the administration." the Bwog liveblogged the event.

IRAQ: Opinions Are Like Noses...

MyDD's Matt Stoller links to a Minneapolis Star Tribunewrite up of ex-Sec/State Colin Powell's comments as the distinguished Carlson Lecture at the Univ. of MN and writes: "Ok, Powell is taking the gloves off. In what looks to be Colin Powell's rejection of Bush, Powell joins the redeployment crowd."

Outside the Beltway's James Joyner also posts Powell's comments which include:

• "Only the Iraqi people can resolve this," Powell said.
• U.S. troops have to stay in Iraq for "some time," he said. "But there is a limit to the patience of the American people."
• Powell was the featured speaker at this year's distinguished Carlson Lecture at the University of Minnesota. In Iraq, "staying the course isn't good enough because a course has to have an end," Powell said.

Joyner concludes: "Aside from dissing the "stay the course" mantra, what here is even remotely new? The administration has been saying for years that it is ultimately up to the Iraqi people to solve this."

BLOGGER VS. BLOGGER: Four Out Of Six Ain't Bad

MyDD's Chris Bowers picks up on Kausfiles live vs. robo poll bias theory ("Voters in Tennessee don't want to admit in front of their conservative, patriotic fellow citizens that they've lost confidence in Bush and the GOPs in the middle of a war on terror and that they're going to vote for the black Democrat. They're embarrassed to tell it to a human pollster. But talking to a robot--or voting by secret ballot--is a different story.") and tests it in six Senate races. Bowers finds: "So, the theory does not hold in Arizona at all. In Missouri and Montana it holds, but could be chalked up to other factors, such as the time the polls were taken. It holds in Ohio and Tennessee, but in Virginia, it is reversed. ... I don't think that there is enough evidence here to conclude that there is a hidden Democratic vote in Tennessee and other red states, where conservative voters don't want to admit in public that they have at least temporarily given up on Republicans."

BLOGGER VS. BLOGGER II: Not Your Average Conservative Hacks

Crooked Timber's Belle Waring looks at an exchange on National Review Online's The Corner in which Ramesh Ponnurunotes the House Republican Conference is sending around Conservative talk show host Hugh Hewitt's Foley scandal thoughts followed by Kathryn Jean Lopez' quip: "I often assume our friend actually works for the House Republican Conference, or RNC!"

Waring comments: "You know, when K-Lo thinks you're kind of a hack ... weelllll." Matthew Yglesias adds: "It's worth keeping in mind that whatever you may think of the NRO gang, they're about three hundred times as intellectually honest as the average conservative broadcast media outlet."

THOUGHT OF THE DAY: We Thought This Was Jon Stewart's Job

Captain's Quarters draws attention to reports that Google Inc. boss Eric Schmidt wants to develop a "truth predictor functions that would assess the honesty of politicians." CQ wonders if Google actually is in the "truth" business: "Schmidt's new effort will likely find many fans, especially in the blogosphere. However, as Daniel Freedman notes at the New York Sun's It Shines For All blog, Google seems a poor choice for a partner in the search for political truth. This is the same company that cooperates with China's government in suppressing political truth in exchange for access to China's burgeoning Internet business."

LEST WE FORGET: Wonkette Reports, You Decide

Wonkette was "just saying, "If the Democrats continue to shut the hell up, there is some small chance this government will be thrown out!" But then we got this e-mail claiming there's a plan after all. WARNING: It really blows." Wonkette reprints:

Well the Democrats do have a plan you just don't listen when they tell you the plan. And if you guys keep saying the Democrats don't have a plan the public will continue to think that the democrats don't have a plan when they do.The plan is to redeploy the soldiers to surrounding countries and let the Iraq people form their own government.

Wonkette responds: "Wait a minute! So the Democratic Plan is to move 145,000 U.S. troops to Saudi Arabia, Iran, Syria, Jordan and Turkey? That is a real piece 'o crap plan."

Blogometer Extra

BLOGGER VS. BLOGGER: Kos Glib On Lib(ertarian)s?

  A lengthy column by Markos Moulitsas (of DailyKos fame) at Cato Unbound is a not-so-subtle call to Libertarians seeking common ground with Democrats.  Moulitsas writes:

For too long, Republicans promised smaller government and less intrusion in people’s lives.  Yet with a government dominated top to bottom by Republicans, we’ve seen the exact opposite.  No one will ever mistake a Democrat of just about any stripe for a doctrinaire libertarian.  But we’ve seen that one party is now committed to subverting individual freedoms, while the other is growing increasingly comfortable with moving in a new direction, one in which restrained government, fiscal responsibility and—most important of all—individual freedoms are paramount.

  John Hawkins at Right Wing News is, perhaps predictably, not buying Moulitsas' argument at all, and crystallizes his thoughts pretty bluntly.  "The problem with the idea of a 'Libertarian Democrat' is that philosophically, Democrats and Libertarians could not be farther apart," Hawkins writes.  "Libertarians believe in having a weak federal government and minimal government interference in people's lives.  That's just the antithesis of what the Democrat Party has stood for over the last 70 years."

  Hawkins proceeds to compare and contrast Dems, GOPers and Libertarians, focusing particularly on civil liberties issues, with caustic wit in tow:

The truth is that the Democrats have few qualms about curbing civil liberties, they're just on the same side as Libertarians on some issues because #1) Democrats aren't serious about protecting us from terrorists #2) There are Republicans in office and Democrats tend to disagree with them on everything for no other reason than because they're Republicans.

  The Claremont Institute's Josh Treviño weighs in on the Kos column with a positively Buckleyan pallette of verbosity, quoting Raymond Arum dictums and slipping in phrases like "ersatz theorist of intellectual convergence" with relative ease.  His case is harder to discern, but it appears he too perceives little of worth with Moulitsas' assertions.  He does throw him a bone early on, tongue likely planted deep in cheek:

[Moulitsas] used to advance himself as a non-ideological man of the party, dedicated to Democratic victory in the absence of any demand for Democratic principle.  In this, he was an apt representative of the party at large: a seeker of power for its own sake, yet prone, to paraphrase Trilling, to irritable mental gestures of vicious and cruel hard-left bluster.  He was not sane in his public undertaking ... but neither did he have any pretense to being more than he was.  There is some honor in that honesty, and it should be acknowledged.

  Treviño ultimately warns a theoretical Libertarian that, should he somehow stray into Dem territory as Moulitsas et al. beckon to him, "he will experience the true regard that the Democratic party has for him soon enough."  He continues, wielding a sword of loquacious rancor:

[The Libertarian] will find himself in the company of people who do not grasp the connection between capitalism and freedom; he will find himself attending party meetings with neighbors who wish nothing more than to seize his household income for their own civic purposes; he will realize that his new fellow-travelers have not the slightest intention of allowing him to raise his children as he sees fit; and he will see Markos Moulitsas, having concluded that beekeepers are the next swing demographic, earnestly explain how he learned to be a Democrat by watching bees.

  "At that point," Treviño concludes, "he may well reflect on just what is preferable -- and what is detestable."

OH 01: Chazbot!

  Dem challenger John Cranley's team conjures up a remarkably original and amusing ad, available for viewing here, that gleefully mocks incumbent Rep. Steve Chabot (R) by using a celebrity George W. Bush impersonator (as the ad kindly notes at bottom).  The faux Bush is heard leaving a message on the answering machine of Chabot, running off a quick list of "accomplishments" and "kudos" that reinforce Cranley's depiction of Chabot as a tool of the White House.

  Chris Bowers at MyDD remarks that "this election has featured more ads trying to make use of humor than I can ever remember," and gives Cranley's ad props for being "genuinely different."

  "This ad is having a strange ability to stick in my mind," Bowers writes.  "It isn't that funny, but it has kept me quietly giggling and smiling for about fifteen minutes now."  Bowers in particular likes "a nice dig on Chabot by having Bush nickname him 'Chabby,' which is a thinly veiled homonym for 'shabby.'"

[Mike Sheehan]

10/4: Staying The Course

Stragglers still remain, but for the most part conservative blogging wagons have circled in defense of Speaker Denny Hastert (R-IL) ... for now. The most common defense has little to do with Hastert's handling of the scandal, and everything to do with timing. Whatever harm keeping Hastert as Speaker may cause, the GOPers' argument goes, can't be worse than the harm his resignation would cause for their candidates this fall. This is a major distinction from the Strom Thurman scandal that felled Sen. Trent Lott (R-MS). Lott's troubles surfaced in the wake of a heartening GOP mid-term victory, leaving the party free to wipe the slate clean prior to the start of a new session. Now the GOP is facing leadership troubles in the waning minutes of the 4th quarter, and they're choosing to stick with the lineup that got them here.

HASTERT: Only A Question Of When

National Review Online's Rich Lowry passes along a GOP leadership explanation for keeping Hastert: "If we decapitate our leadership right now going into the November elections, we lose the whole shooting match. Our base will completely deflate. There is a time and place to talk about vision and leadership [at the top], but now is not the time." Lowry later explains: ""All of this decapitation talk is only about timing. Hastert is finished. The only question is whether it is now or later. Regardless of the election outcome, Hastert won't be Speaker next year." RedState's Directors write: "But now is not the time for a leadership contest. Anyone who suggests otherwise is a fool or a foe."

Not everyone on the right has given up on Hastert entirely. Conservative talk-show host Hugh Hewitt is in full attack mode: "Mark Levin just joined me in an interview in which we both blast the allegedly conservative pundits who are working overtime to toss Republicans under the bus on the basis of zero truthed evidence of GOP leadership complicity other than e-mails which major newspapers, ABC's Brian Ross and evidently the FBI all deemed as insufficiently interesting to publish with dispatch or investigate further." Hewitt also has audio and a transcript of Hastert's appearance on his show. Finally, Hewitt also has "Some Tech Questions Before Speaker Pelosi Is Seated" focusing on whether there was a conspiracy to set Foley up.

Not directly responding to Hewitt, Michelle Malkin offers a "Instant messaging 101" to debunk "radio talk show host" doubts about the veracity of the Foley IMs: "Please don't spread this meme. You can save [IMs] on Google Chat. You can save them on AOL. You save them on Yahoo! And guess what? They are formatted exactly like the Foley IMs published by ABC News.

Talking Points MemoJosh Marshall wonders what Hastert and co. hope to accomplish by arguing that "Foleygate is all the product of a grand nefarious dirty trick." Marshall writes: "But what strikes me is what the charge would even mean. Is this really a winning argument or is it, as it seems to me, a sign that the House GOP leadership is currently exploring the outer reaches of the galaxy of desperation?"

Marshall also notes that Hastert promised to campaign for thirty House GOPers before election day. Marshall snarks: "Is that a threat? ... Who are the lucky thirty?" back on the rightHot Air has Hastert's entire Limbaugh interview. Also, Michael Illions, hosted Lorie Byrd,John Hawkins , Betsy Newmark and Ed Morrisey for a GOP USA Northeast Conservatives With Attitudepodcast on the Hastert question.

REYNOLDS: How Many Small Children Does It Take For Tom Reynolds To Hide Behind?

Buffalo Geek has video of Rep. Tom Reynolds (R-NY) taking questions at a day care center 10/3 on the Foley scandal. Under the header "NRCC Uses Small Children As Human Shields" firedoglake's Jane Hamsher provides a transcript of the proceedings:

Reporter: Congressman, do you mind asking the children to leave the room so we can have a frank discussion of this, because it's an adult topic. It just doesn't seem appropriate to me.Reynolds: I'll take your questions, but I'm not going to ask any of my supporters to leave.Reporter: Who are the children, Congressman? Who are these children?Reynolds: Well, a number of them are from the community. There are several of the "thirtysomething" set that are here and uh I've known them and I've known their children as they were born. Reporter: Do you think it's appropriate for them to be listening to the subject matter though?Reynolds: Sir, I'll be happy to answer your questions, I'm still, uh...

BOEHNER: "At Least As Dishonest As Hastert"

No movement at all from righty bloggers on including Rep. John Boehner (R-OH) on the list of those that must go, but lefty bloggers are still making the case. Glenn Greeenwald writes: "

If Hastert has to resign, how can Boehner stay? Not only does Boehner admit to having known about what the Washington Times calls the "red flags" raised by Foley's "suggestive and wholly inappropriate e-mail messages," Boehner, ever since this scandal emerged, has been at least as dishonest as Hastert has been (which is saying a lot, since Hastert, as the Washington Times notes, "dissembled, to put it charitably"). And it was Boehner who actively and inexcusably blocked the efforts by House Democrats on Friday to instruct the House Ethics Committee to investigate this matter.

FOLEY: Mann Act Controls Minor Issue

The entire blogosphere was completely underwhelmed by Foley's lawyer's bombshell that Foley had been molested as a child. Talking Points Memo confirms that Foley was raised Roman Catholic and AMERICAblog parses the lawyer's statement that Foley "never had any inappropriate sexual contact with any minor." AMERICAblog notes: "in many states, including apparently DC, 16 is the age of consent. Below 16, you're a minor. 16 and up, you're not a minor. So Foley's lawyer just said he never had sex with any 15 year olds. And yes, all pages are 16 and up, from what we've heard. So the question is whether Foley had sex with anyone under 18, and with anyone he met in the page program?"

The Volokh Conspiracy's Orin Kerr breaks down the probable prosecution of Foley:

The case actually brings up a bunch of very interesting legal questions, and I wanted to explain the issues for readers who are following the story in the news. ... The basic law at issue here is 18 U.S.C. 2422(b), sometimes known as the federal enticement statute, which is part of the Victorian-era legislation known as the Mann Act. ... I would guess that prosecutors are looking for IMs and e-mails sent to minors when they were back home, far from Washington DC, perhaps in socially conservative states or districts where jurors would be particularly likely to see Foley's e-mails as the dangerous products of a sexual predator. If they decide to prosecute, the feds probably would bring the case in that state or district.

FOLEY II: Reporting For Mom Duty

National Review Online's Rich Lowry passes along "an anti-Hastert e-mail" including: "minority leader Pelosi is usually considered a weak sister. But look at her now: a strikingly attractive woman in her sixties with five children, numerous grandchildren, and a warm smile. She practically screams: MOM ON DUTY. THIS WON"T HAPPEN AGAIN."

Talking Points Memo Josh Marshall draws attention to dueling headlines on CNN's main page:

• Report: Foley had cybersex before vote
• Bush: Dems shouldn't be trust to run Congress

Marshall comments: "Just not a good day for GOP message meisters." And finally, MN-06 hopeful Patty Wetterling (D) has an ad up using the Foley scandal.

BLOGGER VS. MSM: Wow

Conservative talk show host Hugh Hewitt highlights key portions of his 10/3 interview with former Washington Post journalist Thomas Edsell: "

HH: Okay. Do you believe everything Bob Woodward writes? TE: No.

BLOGGER VS. BELTWAY: Chris Bowers Does Not Sleep With The Fishes

Responding to "the ire of many people" from his 10/2 post on DCCC targeting, MyDD's Chris Bowers sticks to his argument that "the more blue districts we take, the more solid our majority and voting patterns will be. Thus, not only will we win a majority, but we will actually have control, which is very different." Bowers then turns his guns back on the DCCC: "I also know from sources and from DCCC targeting lists I have acquired in the past that sometimes the DCCC doesn't target a seat simply because DCCC leaders don't like the Democratic candidate for that seat, even though the district is very winnable. So, don't tell me that the DCCC is some bastion of objective, sophisticated district targeting immune to the vagaries of subjective personal feuds, especially when it is being run by a guy who once sent a pollster a dead fish wrapped in a newspaper.

BLOGGERS VS. BELTWAY: Carrying The Load

Captain's Quarters looks at OMB efforts to recruit bloggers to help support its clean-government initiatives and writes: "Can the blogosphere reform government? Not by itself, of course, but it can amplify the demands of the electorate, especially when it speaks in broad consensus. ... If OMB can make the case for reform that steers clear of ideology -- which really is the purview of our elected representatives -- they can rely on bloggers to help them carry the load."

YEARLYKOS: Kos' Kind Of Town

YearlyKos organizers proudly announced 10/3 that "the 2nd Annual YearlyKos Convention will take place August 2 - 5, 2007 at the McCormick Place Convention Center in Chicago, IL." The organizers explained: "It's got everything that we liberals pine for: great museums, efficient public transportation, diversity, a strong union presence, delicious food and, of course, a huge convention center. YearlyKos 2007 is going to be bigger and better than 2006, and maybe even a little more fun."

LANDSCAPE: No, We Can't See Rhode Island Either

MyDD's Chris Bowers posts a map showing which party holds which Governor mansions and explains: "Any state that is "lean Democratic" or better is in blue. Any state that is "lean Republican" or worse is in red. The six toss-up states are in purple (Rhode Island is purple, in case you can't see that)." Bowers later writes: "Whatever worries we may have about Congress, when it comes to governorships, Democrats are on the brink of taking a national majority, in terms of states, population, and congressional districts. In fact, we are practically assured of pulling off all three of those majorities in 2006."

LANDSCAPE II: 70% Excellent

RedState's Pat Cleary links to The National Association of Manufacturers official vote ratings for the 109th Congress. Cleary writes: "Unlike some groups -- like the AFL-CIO, for example -- these determinations are not made by staff. They are done by manufacturers who are part of a Key Vote Committee -- large and small manufacturers in equal numbers. ... And so you'll not see any social issues on here, only roll-up-the-sleeves issues of importance to manufacturers: Taxes, trade, legal reform, energy and the like. It's all transparent." Everyone who scores over 70% wins the Award for Manufacturing Legislative Excellence. 0f the 276 award winner, 269 are GOPers.

CT SEN: Lamont Or Bust

MyDD's Chris Bowers looks at Dem promises to retain Sen. Joe Lieberman's (I-CT) seniority should the Dems take the Senate and predicts "full-scale revolt from the netroots" is that happens. Bowers reminds Beltway Dems: "Please believe me when I say that is neither an empty threat, nor a small threat." Bowers concludes: "So, the situation in the Senate is much simpler than in the House. Even if Democrats win a majority in the Senate, we do not win control of the Senate unless Ned Lamont defeats Joe Lieberman. Period."

The official Ned Lamont Blog notes that the "Dems for Joe" unveiled last week is made up of "major corporate lobbyists with a vested financial interest in keeping Lieberman in Washington." DailyKos' founder Markos Moulitsas adds: "Look at Business Week's look at Democratic lobbyists that would dominate Washington if Dems take over. ... Then compare those names to the list of Democrats supporting Joe Lieberman. They are many of the same guys -- John Breaux, Tony Podesta, and Steve Elmendorf. ... If the Democrats take over one or both chambers of Congress (and that's a big "if"), we'll have to be vigilant that these sleazy lobbyists don't corrupt our caucus the way they have corrupted the current Republican Party."

Kos also has video of Lamont's new day care at and firedoglake's Pachacutec blames the Foley scandal on Lieberman.

TN SEN: The Reverse PC Red-State Solidarity Error Theory

After noting a new poll showing Rep. Harold Ford (D) and ex-Chattanooga Mayor Bob Corker (R) in a dead heat, Instapundit posts an email from Michael Barone explaining that Ford does best on the robopolls while Corker does better with live dials. Instapundit then notes that Ford's better performance on robo polls casts doubt on theories that white voters are telling pollsters they support Ford "in order not to sound racist, but that they'll vote for Corker in the privacy of the ballot box."

Kausfiles links to the exchange and adds his own theory: "Maybe a new and different kind of PC error is at work--call it Red State Solidarity Error. Voters in Tennessee don't want to admit in front of their conservative, patriotic fellow citizens that they've lost confidence in Bush and the GOPs in the middle of a war on terror and that they're going to vote for the black Democrat. They're embarrassed to tell it to a human pollster. But talking to a robot--or voting by secret ballot--is a different story."

VA SEN: Allen And Webb Both Love Women

Ex-Navy sec. James Webb (D) Netroots Coordinator and Raising Kaine founder Lowell Feld posts Webb's latest ad that "totally slams George Allen's slanderous nonsense." The A-Team notes a Potomac Newsarticle describing the ad as including "two retired military women rebutting claims in an Allen ad aired last week" and responds: "The funny thing is, neither of these women in the ad attended the Naval Academy. One of these women is a Democrat and a contributor to the DNC, while the other is already a Webb campaign volunteer who blogs on Raising Kaine. What is the message to take from this ad?"

Raising Kaine also has photos from Sen. Hillary Clinton's (D-NY) 10/3 campaign appearance for Webb and Greg at Raising Kaine details "George Allen's Voter Suppression Strategy."

THOUGHT OF THE DAY: And You Thought High Gas Prices Were Bad

Outside the Beltway's Richard Gardner at Yakima-Herald reports of the S.S. Steiner hops warehouse burning in Yakima, WA and writes: "If this were oil, we could expect a massive price increase of hop-using products (um, mostly beer, rejected stuff goes into soaps and such). Even worse, hops aren't exactly fungible as the alpha and beta-acids (tech-type hop talk) vary by type and location."

LEST WE FORGET: The Foley Scandal Touches Us All

Daily Kos diarist KiTA reports that after the Foley scandal broke her office "SmartFilter Internet censorship software" began blocking access to Daily Kos since it had been classified as having "Mature" content. KiTA writes: "Sorry boys and girls, you're not old enough to talk about corrupt Republicans today." Later Kita reports: "So far we've heard from high school students (think about that one the next time you want to curse Bush's name with actual anglo-saxon curse words), people who use the Internet at public libraries (the primary logon point for millions in the US), insurance salesmen, bankers, IT staff ... This block seems to be either spreading ... or more widespread than most people, myself included, thought."

Blogometer Extra

BLOGGER VS. BLOGGER: What's A Little Photoshopping Among Bloggers

  Be forewarned that some of the following links contain images that may not be safe for work.

  Michelle Malkin is no stranger to personal attacks.  Someone last week posted a picture of her clad in a bikini at a Flickr page (you can view the pic here).

  Malkin dismisses the photo as not only a fake, but a bad one, and a deliberately hurtful attempt to smear her.  Captain Ed at the Quarters says the "pretty obvious photoshop" was done in response to Malkin's recent "cultural critique about the potential effect of trashy chic on young girls" that is available here.  The Cap'n in particular rips on Wonkette, who took great glee--in a post entitled "Michelle, You Ignorant Slut"--knocking Malkin's hypocrisy.  Wonkette:

Michelle Malkin has a new column about the slutification of very young girls.  For a Malkin column, it’s downright mainstream.  Other than certain Washington Times employees and the usual cops and congressmen, nobody is particularly happy about seeing 13-year-old girls covered in cheap makeup and hair product, with their rhinestone-studded thongs riding high on their fat asses and their “Porn Star” baby-Ts making it about halfway over their french-fry-stuffed navel-pierced guts. ... OK, do you want to see Malkin allegedly gettin’ skanky, spring-break style? After the jump, obviously... Malkin doesn’t like these young sluts flashing their skin like the basic Whore of Babylon.  And yet … there appears to be a picture of Malkin doing the “Girls Gone Wild” semi-boob flash, while cavorting about in a string bikini like a common hussy, from 1992!

  Malkin herself pointed the finger at Eric Muller of Is That Legal?, who subsequently apologized to both Malkin and to "the woman whose images were stolen to create the bogus flickr page to which this post linked."

  Yet Wonkette held on, which prompted a sarcastic lashing from Mary Katharine Ham at Townhall:

Here's the playbook.

Throw up a questionable/obviously Photoshopped picture of an allegedly bikini-clad female, conservative pundit.

Put the picture up the same week she writes a column mourning the lost modesty of a formerly admirable teen idol.

Rage about the hypocrisy of it all, thereby proving yourself more sexually repressed and prudish than the Republicans you're intent on bashing since you seem to have missed the recent cultural development that one can manage to don a bikini and smile without, in fact, being a whore.

Ignore clear evidence that the photo is a fake.

Do not correct the post or apologize. Just suggest that the pundit is lying!

  You get the picture.  Ham wrapped: "Ta-daaa!  Can I work for a left-leaning gossip blog, now?  I could do this all day long."  RightWingDuck at IMAO took the levity train even further down the track, with his own collection of obviously (and intentionally ridiculous) altered Malkin photos.

  Malkin does her best to take events in stride and in a subsequent post mixes seriousness with bemusement, anger with resignation, disgust with a dash of defiance.  To wit:

There are many unhinged people who would like me to shut up.  There are those who engage routinely in active defamation and empty ad hominem attacks.  There are also those who enable, excuse, and snicker at these attacks. ... There seem to be some very dense people who don't understand that this is not just about a bikini Photoshop.  It is about disseminating the fake photo to cast me in a false light and "prove" that I'm somehow a hypocrite. ... Nobody would fall for such obvious fakery, right?  A law school professor did.  Major gossip sites took the bait.  Some people still refuse to believe it's all fake.

  After a "j'accuse!" section in which she rips into the perpetrators and their "enablers," she continues:

[O]utside of Manhattan and Los Angeles, not all of us think blogging is a for-profit enterprise founded solely to tear people down with gossip, rumor-mongering, and damaging lies disguised as "satire."  Funny how some of the loudest voices decrying the lack of civility in the blogosphere are the biggest promoters of the bottom-feeders and debasers... I've been attacked regularly as a whore and a c**t and a puppet and a dupe and a sellout, etc. ... It comes with the territory--particularly when you happen to be a woman, a minority, and a conservative.  The extensive arguments and blog posts and columns and books I've written are reduced to bumper-sticker putdowns by critics and their fellow travelers who couldn't be bothered to actually read what I've written day in and day out for the last two years on the blog and the past 14 years in my books and columns.  I poked fun at this pathology in my last book.  I think what drives a lot of the haters crazy is that despite their ceaseless sniping, they can't shut me up.  So, I'll be back here the next day and the next cheerfully doing what I do.  And the haters will be back in their pigpens doing what they do.

  "The wonderful thing about the Internet," Malkin concludes, "is that there is room for both."

  Tim Blair slips in one last observation, bringing Andrew Sullivan into the fray, so to speak:

Andrew Sullivan found himself the target of left-wing unpleasantness a few years ago.  Essentially, he was accused of being a slut and a hypocrite.  Sullivan was understandably distraught over this.  In response, he condemned his attackers for their “sexual McCarthyism”.

Michelle Malkin currently finds herself the target of left-wing unpleasantness.  Essentially, she is accused of being a slut and a hypocrite.  Malkin is not amused by this.  You might expect Sullivan to empathise.  Instead, he writes: "Michelle Malkin does not have a sense of humor."

Just laugh it off, Michelle.  You know, exactly like Andy did(n’t).

[Mike Sheehan]

10/3: What Was Your Favorite Moment Of The Denny Hastert Era?

Watching righty blog reaction to Speaker Dennis Hastert's (R-IL) handling of the Foley scandal, the Blogometer can't help but be reminded of Sen. Trent Lott's (R-MS) eventual step down from his leadership post. Righty bloggers calling for Hastert's resignation can still be counted with your fingers, but full-throated defenses of Hastert's actions are hard (not impossible) to come by. The righty consensus so far is that Hastert screwed up, but should still be kept. He's going to have to improve if he doesn't want to share Lott's fate.

HASTERT: A One-Man Bermuda Triangle

The Washington Times 10/3 call for House Speaker Dennis Hastert's (R-IL) is getting wide play on the left and right. Some righty bloggers, including, La Shawn Barber's Corner, were ahead of the curve. Other rigthy heavy hitters calling for Hastert to step down: Outside the Beltway's James Joyner, Captain's Quarters, and Ankle Biting Pundit's Bull Dog Pundit.

Michelle Malkin is also highly critical of Hastert's handling of the issue, but is not ready to throw him under thus bus. RCP Blog's Tom Bevan is also critical but also "still not yet convinced" Hastert should step down.

Not all on the right are ready to pile on. Townhall's Mary Katharine Ham labels the Times editorial "a classic McCain Move" and Right Wing News echoes her thoughts under the header "The Washington Times Pulls A McCain On Hastert."

At The New RepublicThe Plank 's Michael Crowley argues Hastert leadership status is weak now that DeLay is gone: "After all, he was basically Tom DeLay's guy--elevated to the position in 1999 with DeLay's help when the Hammer realized he was too toxic to assume the job himself. Now that DeLay's gone, who still wants Hastert around? As an orator and television speaker he's a preposterous disaster. And the breakdown in the House GOP's discipline after DeLay's departure just proves what we knew: that it was the Hammer, and not Hastert, who'd been keeping the GOP caucus together all these years."

Talking Points Memo looks at how Hastert's offices should have responded to the Foley revelations 9/29 and asks: "Is it the curse of Ron Bonjean? Bonjean is Denny Hastert's spokesman. He was spokesman for Trent Lott during the Strom Thurmond debacle. Like a one man Bermuda Triangle.

Jane Hamsher at firedoglake posts a 7/01 online chat with Hastert's opponent ex-Navy intelligence analyst John Laesch.

LANDSCAPE: Definitely Not Paul Begala

Blog P.I. correspondent and Dem strategist Not Paul Begala is tired of "the simplistic rantings of unqualified morons" that he sees on blogs. NPB then offers a detailed response to MyDD's Chris Bowers latest call for the DCCC to spend more of their money in "blue districts." NPB writes: "What pisses me off to no end about this is the macro look this moron just took at winning the House - as if you can tell by the Partisan Voter Index (supplied by Cook Political Report) how easy it is to win a district. Or how he just forgets conveniently that Red districts have leanings where it's much easier to define a Democrat as a liberal, [feline], God-hating yuppie."

CT SEN: A Howard Dean Moment?

DailyKos' founder Markos Moulitsas finds cable exec. Ned Lamont's (D) new ad "inspiring" while MyDD's Chris Bowers worries about comparisons to when "Dean's campaign went wrong in late 2003 when it starting selling the Dean movement as part of the campaign." Bowers still likes the ad though: "Sure, people don't want movements, but they do want something--anything--to stop Bush. Showing that you have a national movement behind Lamont working to stop Bush certainly helps sell the idea that Lamont can be trusted to stop him."

MI SEN: And The Difference Between Informal and Formal Outreach Is ...

Beltway Blogroll Oakland Co. Sheriff Mike Bouchard's (R) communications director David All "will begin a formal outreach effort to friendly bloggers" 10/2. All is looking for "invited bloggers to share their ideas about the effort with Bouchard's campaign and added, "I'm looking for someone to head up the effort."

Meanwhile PoliPundit argues Bouchard's proven ability to turn out voters in Oakland Co. will be his secret weapon against Sen. Debbie Stabenow (D).

MN SEN: You're Doin A Heck'uv A Job Klobuchar

Power Line's John Hinderaker links to video of Hennepin Co. Atty. Amy Klobuchar (D) mistaking ex-FEMA head Michael Brown as Dir. of Homeland Security Michael Chertoff and writes: "As a Senate candidate, Klobuchar is not ready for prime time."

TN SEN: Dividends For Ford

Instapundit reports Rep. Harold Ford Jr. (D-09) did "quite well" on "a local hard-right talk radio show" and advises other Dems to "take note" since engaging "people rather than coming across as condescending has paid big dividends."

VA SEN: Former Washington Redskins Can't Be Wrong

Right Angle Blog's Ivy J. Sellers has video of Sen. George Allen's (R) two-minute address from 10/2. The official AllenHQ writes: "Senator Allen will be giving a major statewide address on Monday night, taking an opportunity to bypass the tabloid-centric media in order to bring his positive message directly to Virginia voters. The statement from the Allen campaign." AllenHQ also has pics from "many former Washington Redskins players appeared with Senator Allen today to offer their enthusiastic support for his Senate reelection campaign.

Ex-Navy sec. James Webb's (D) Netroots Coordinator and Raising Kaine bloggersLowell Feld also has video from Allen's address and asks: "Was There a Point to This?" Also at Raising KaineLee Diamond pumps Sen. Hillary Clinton's (D) Webb appearance 10/3 and Loudon County Demposts a photo of Allen and Foley.

FOLEY: It's Always The Cover-Up

AMERICAblog confirmed 10/2 that the GOP staffer identified by Howard Kurtz 10/2 as trying "to broker a secret deal" with ABC News to suppress the most damning IMs was Rep. Tom Reynolds' (R-NY) chief of staff, Kirk Fordham. AMERICAblog writes: "Congressman Reynolds let his own chief of staff secretly work for a child predator in an effort to cover-up the worst evidence of the predator's sexual wrongdoing. Without that evidence, this case might not have broken wide open. Add Reynolds to the list, alongside Hastert and Shimkus, of members of Congress who need to resign now."

FOLEY II: Begala Blogs!

Kicking off The Washington Monthly's new blog Showdown '06Paul Begala looks at the Foley mess and declares "that as of the Third Day of the Tenth Month in the Year of Our Lord 2006, the Conservative Myth of Moral Superiority has been crushed."

MyDD's Chris Bowers looks at recent developments including Foley, ex-Pres. Clinton on Fox News, the NIE, Jack Abramoff, and other items and sees "Total Republican Collapse Imminent." Talking Points MemoJosh Marshall argues the Foley scandal has already decapitated the GOP leadership for this cycle.

TPM Cafe has a list of GOPers with campaign cash from Foley and what they've done with it so far, while Talking Points Memo readers have been calling GOP member offices for official positions on Hastert's tenure as speaker.

Over at DailyKos, The Cunctator has set up an Act Blue page called "The Foley Five" that targets: Foley, Hastert, Reynolds, Rep. John Boehner (R-OH), and Rep. John Shimkus (R-IL). AMERICAblog chips in with video of Bay Buchanan blasting the GOP and a "dazed" Hastert on CNN.

FOLEY III: The Page Set Me Up!

Crooks and Liars has audio from Matt Drudge's radio show on the Foley scandal. Jane Hamsher at firedoglake transcribes the relevant portions.

• Drudge: "Have you read the transcripts that ABC posted going into the weekend of these instant messages, back and forth? The kids are egging the Congressman on! The kids are trying to get this out of him. We haven't got the whole story on this."
• Drudge: "Because you have to remember, those of us who have seen some of the transcripts of these nasty instant messages. This was two ways, ladies and gentlemen. These kids were playing Foley for everything he was worth. Oh yeah.

RCP Blog's Jay Cost argues Foley's troubles will not "hurt the GOP's electoral prospects" unless it is "linked to specific House incumbents." Right Wing News argues Team Hastert handled the original emails correctly while Macsmind and Passionate America stick to the conspiracy angle.

FOLEY IV: What's Wrong With A Little Sex Among Consenting Adults?

Atrios still finds "Foley's behavior was highly inappropriate" but argues the Adam Walsh law, making it illegal to solicit sex from minors online, sounds "like bad law." Atrios writes: "And, obviously, if the sex isn't illegal it's a bit weird that soliciting sex is illegal."

Finally, Michael Petrelis takes the Human Rights Campaign to task for not demanding the $27K they donated to Foley since '00.

CONVENTION'08: That's Gonna Be One Crowded Hotel

DailyKos' founder Markos Moulitsas celebrates news that Hyatt Regency Denver workers formed a union and writes: "Good for them. And also, good for those of us who want to see the 2008 Democratic National Convention in Denver. The lack of union facilities was proving a roadblock. Furthermore, that means that Denver can be considered for future editions of YearlyKos, which -- by the way -- should be announcing its 2007 city any day now."

FRIST: Running For President Of CAIR

Travelling in Afghanistan, Sen. Bill Frist (R-TN) made enemies on the right with his comments in an APpiece suggesting "that the Afghan guerrilla war can never be won militarily and called for efforts to bring the Taliban and their supporters into the Afghan government." The Commissar looks at Frist's words and decides "to vote Democratic this fall." Ace of Spades writes: "Goodbye GOP. The hell with the lot of them."

Team Frist noted the brewing unhappiness and First took to VOLPAC to offer an explanation claiming the AP badly distorted his remarks. Frist writes: "Our counter-insurgency strategy must win hearts and minds and persuade moderate Islamists potentially sympathetic to the Taliban to accept the legitimacy of the Afghan national government and democratic political processes."

Hot Air's Allahpundit doesn't see Frist's distinction: "So basically Frist's distinguishing between the actual Taliban, whom we must defeat by any means necessary, and people who "call themselves Taliban" but aren't really - even if they themselves don't know it yet. Actually, now that I think of it, that's a nifty description for CAIR." Ace of Spades isn't buying either.

GINGRICH: The Straw King

Right Angle Blog announces 10/2 that Newt Gingrich won the September Human Events Presidential Straw Poll. Ivy J. Sellers writes: "For a number of months, Gingrich trailed Rep. Tom Tancredo (R-CO) but now has a firmed lead with 31.79% of the vote to Tancredo's 17.46%."

BAYH: Team Player Wanted

DailyKos' founder Markos Moulitsas congratulates Sen. Evan Bayh (D-IN) for working for local IN candidates, but he wants more: "While Hillary [Clinton] has transferred less than what she should be able to pass on ($1 million, which is the same as some far less cash-rich senators), Bayh has refused to transfer a single dime to the DSCC despite having over $10 million in his Senate reelection fund. We need our 2008 nominee to be a team player.

Those who don't ante up in the effort to take back the Senate should get a big demerit. "

BLOGGER VS. BELTWAY: Let The Debate Begin

DailyKos' founder Markos Moulitsas authors the lead essay at Cato Unbound kicking off a debate on his "Case for the Libertarian Democrat." Future responses are due from Bruce Reed, Harold Meyerson, and Nick Gillespie

BLOGGERS VS. BELTWAY II: We Hope You Think This Podcast Is Up To Mexican Standards

Instapundit has his latest podcast up with Wall Street Journal writer John Fund on his new book Stealing Elections: How Voter Fraud Threatens Our Democracy. The interview covers: "high-tech problems with electronic voting machines, more mundane problems with ineligible voters and phony ballots, and the general slackness and incompetence that have made our voting system one that can only aspire to the high standards of Mexico."

THOUGHTS OF THE DAY: What Do Iraq And Mark Foley Have In Common?

Lots according to DailyKos' founder Markos Moulitsas and RedState president Erick Erickson.

• Kos compares: "What are the common threads here? Iraq has clearly become a political tool for the GOP, used to beat up Democrats as "weak" on "national security". Nevermind the people who die on behalf of Rove's political talking points. And when a sexual predator endangers a safe Republican seat while threatening to cost the party a couple millions of dollars, what does the Republican leadership do? They cover it up."
• Erickson has a slightly different take: "But, ABC's source(s) clearly did know Foley was sexually harassing teenage boys. And instead of doing anything to stop Foley when they found out, they held on to the information for political gain -- they waited until a month before the election to spring their little trap. This, my friends, is just how the Democrats have operated and would probably operate if they took back Congress. This is just like how they've handled Iraq. Instead of offering any plan to make any person or House Page safer, they've leaked damning information to the media at politically opportune times.

LEST WE FORGET: Alcohol -- The Cause Of, And Solution To, All Of Life's Problems

TAPPED's Ben Adler does not quote Homer Simpson, but perhaps he should have when writing this post:

As Bob Packwood discovered a few years back, now that substance abuse is (correctly) viewed as an illness rather than a sign of moral degeneracy, one can blame one's actual moral degenaracy on substance abuse to soften a public fall from grace. Not any old substance will do, mind you: crack might turn off suburbanites, heroin might evoke the specter of AIDS, and coke might seem too rockstarrish. Plus, then you're admitting to breaking the law. Alcohol, on the other hand, has the middle-American acceptability (and legality) to strike the right balance (provided that plying your under-age pages with alcohol wasn't part of your attempts to seduce them).

10/2: The Perfect Blogstorm

When righty blog hub Pajamas Media first described the ex-Rep. Mark Foley (R-FL) scandal as "The Perfect Blogstorm" 9/30, we were skeptical since, while the blogosphere had definitely run with the story, they mostly seemed to be following the MSM's lead on actual reporting. Upon further review, this is just the type of story that could only have broken in our new blog world, thus making it The Perfect Blogstorm.

The original emails read by GOP leadership last fall were also shopped by the same page to the MSM stalwart St. Petersburg Times, who despite putting two reporters onto the story, declined to print an item since the evidence available "didn't meet our standard for publication." But a previously unknown blog posted the emails 9/24 and they were quickly picked up by a DailyKos diarist (the diary was never promoted to DailyKos' front page and comments show some readers were skeptical). Then on 9/28 ABC News' blog The Blotter ran with the story including Foley's Democratic opponent businessman Tim Mahoney's (D) request for an investigation. It was not till then that the career killing IM's were turned over to ABC News' by an anonymous source. The rest, and Foley, are history.

FOLEY: Grand Old Perverts

Think Progress has the best timeline of Missing and Exploited Children's Caucus chairman Rep. Mark Foley's (R-FL) fall from grace (TPM Cafe's is a close second). Under the header "GOP = Grand Old Perverts" firedoglake's Jane Hamsher looks at Rep. John Boehner's (R-OH) morphing quotes on who knew about the original emails when in the Washington Post, as does AMERICAblog and Talking Points Memo

Many on the left are linking to this ABC News report on Page Alumni Association Matthew Loraditch's admission that his 2001-2002 page class was warned about Foley's "being too nice to you and all that kind of stuff" by a supervisor in the House Clerk's office to prove a "huge" GOP cover up.

Talking Points Memo reader DK notes the St. Petersburg Times had the same emails House Speaker Dennis Hastert (R-IL) did last fall. DK lauds the paper for putting two reporters on the story, but argues they should have done more: "The one thing the editor doesn't describe the paper trying to do was talk to anyone overseeing the congressional page program. Given the leadership's track record, a call from reporters might not have gotten much of a response. But given that we're talking about minors here, it seems like a call that should have been made."

Meanwhile, Atrios and Glenn Greenwald note that while actual sex between Foley and a 16-year-old page would have been perfectly legal in DC, legislation the Foley helped pass, makes his IMs a federal offense.

Many on the left are also eager to paint Foley's actions as typical GOP behavior:

• Matt Stoller at MyDD: "The religious right isn't religious, it is politically authoritarian. It is a movement of morally and ethically corrupted individuals who refuse to tell the difference between right and wrong."
• Paul Rosenberg at MyDD: "They hide liars. They hide torturers. They hide sexual predators. They are scum of the earth. THIS is the nationalization of the 2006 mid-terms. And much, much more.
• self-described conservative Andrew Sullivan: "Or think of it another way: what do the Vatican and the RNC have in common? Here's one potential list: entrenched homophobia, psychologically damaged closet cases, inappropriate behavior toward teens and minors ... and cover-ups designed entirely to retain power. The parallels are looking a little creepy. And the source is the same."

FOLEY II: Like Abramoff, But More Appalling

National Review Online's John J. Miller argues the Foley scandal could be much worse than previous GOP ethics issues: "Foley could become the new Jack Abramoff. Except that whereas the details of Abramoff's were always a bit complicated for the public to follow closely, the accusations now leveled at Foley are much simpler and more appalling. Foley is on the verge of becoming the poster child of a party that is concerned about little more than preserving its power."

Others on the right immediately smelled conspiracy. JustOneMinute follows the story's birth on the obscure Stop Sex Predators Now blog, over to DailyKos, where it languished before being picked up by ABC News' The Blotter . JOM speculates: " Maybe the blog author was an unwitting catspaw, but I would want some assurance that this was not simply a successful attempt to promote a story that wasn't quite ready for the Mainstream Media by laundering it through some blogs (and wasn't that Matt Drudge's ecological niche, back in the day?)."

American Thinker has similar thoughts and links ABC's efforts to the George Soros-backed Citizens for Responsibility and Ethics in Washington (CREW). AT writes: "How likely is it that this site with virtually no readership, few posts and hardly any history or posts of interest suddenly receives this bombshell? I'd say slight." Townhall's Mary Katharine Ham follows a similar vein, guessing that Stop Sex Predators commenter michael rogers is the same Michael Rogers that "is the host and agent of a widely publicized 'outing campaign' at BlogActive.com targeting closeted gay Republicans."

More standard GOP talking points include:

• National Review Online's Kathryn Jean Lopez: No one in leadership knew about the IMs. They did not surface until Friday. The family who contact Rep. Alexander about the e-mail correspondence did not want the e-mails shared. The leadership did an internal review immediately as they became aware of the instant messages on Friday.
• Townhall's Hugh Hewitt: "Democrats' shrill charges that the GOP leadership knew about the Foley IMs as opposed to the original e-mail also telegraph what their return to the majority in either House would mean: Endless hearings into fever swamp scandal-mongering."
• Townhall's Ham: "But can we really blame Hastert for not assuming that would be the case? The IMs reflect an entirely different story than the e-mails did, and it's easy for us to say, with the benefit of hindsight, that Hastert should have known, but I don't think I would have."
• Power Line's John Hinderaker: "Our younger readers may not be aware that House pages have figured in several scandals over the years. Congressman Gerry Studds (D-MA) had an affair with a teenage male page that, I believe, included sex within the precincts of the Capitol Building. ... Then there is Barney Frank, who was reprimanded by the House for using his Congressional office to intervene on behalf of his boyfriend, a homosexual prostitute, to dispose of at least 33 parking tickets. The boyfriend also ran a prostitution ring out of Frank's house. Today, Frank is one of the most powerful members of the Democrats' House caucus."

Not all on the right are on push-back mode. Captain's Quarters writes: "I cannot tell CQ readers how disgusted I am with Speaker Hastert. Reynolds is no fringe nutcase; he's the man Hastert trusted to run the midterm re-elections of the Republican caucus. He has no reason to lie, but Hastert apparently did. This also calls into question Boehner's earlier reversal, when he denied saying that he informed Hastert after Hastert denied knowing of Foley's activities."

Kausfiles also was ready to assign some blame to the GOP leadership: "It's slightly less unfair to blame the House Republican leadership--sure, the evidence in the first emails wasn't much. But did they really have no idea what Foley was up to? Don't these rumors get around the Hill pretty quickly?** It's not like Foley was co-chair of the House Caucus on Missing and Exploited Chil .... oh wait."

HASTERT: Cardinal Hastert?

Lefty blogs were eager to impute Hastert with as much knowledge of Foley's perversions as possible. AMERICAblog's John Aravosis posts lengthy excerpts of the IM obtained late last week by ABC News and then writes: " I cannot believe that Denny Hastert knew about Foley using the Net to chat-up underage boys a year ago and DID NOTHING ... Whether or not the kid's parents were fine with letting it go, which the story says is the case, why did Republican House Speaker Denny Hastert permit Foley to remain in the House GOP leadership for almost a year after they knew he was having sex talk with minors online, minors he met on the job?" DemFromCT at DailyKos has similar thoughts and TPM Cafe's Stirling Newberry makes the case for Hastert to be charged with criminal conspiracy as a "accessory after the fact."

TPM Reader DK takes Hastert to task for only asking the Justice Dept. to investigate the IMs, not the GOP's response to the original emails and later argues the investigation is really just an effort to intimidate any other potential whistleblowers.

DailyKos' founder Markos Moulitsas notes Hastert's "Upcoming Event"s page includes: "Keeping Kids Safe in Cyberspace Community Meeting Tuesday, August 29th" while DailyKos' Jeffrey Feldman writes: "Fifty years from now, when historians write about the social problem of sexual predators in early 21st Century America, they will put a photo of Cardinal Bernard Law next to a photo of Republican Speaker of the House Dennis Hastert. These are men who had the chance to protect our children, but chose to protect a predator instead.

GW Univ. Student Assoc. Pres. runner-up Alec Baldwin writes at The Huffington Post: "Forget about Mark Foley. He's toast. ... Focus on Hastert. That do-nothing, lap dog Speaker of the House, who knew Foley was compromised and knew it quite a long time ago and did nothing, purely to maintain political power."

REYNOLDS: Of No Relation To Glenn>

On 9/30 Talking Points Memo's Josh Marshall noted a NRCC chair Rep. Tom Reynolds's (R-NY) statement contradicted Hastert aides assertion that the Speaker did not know of Foley's emails. Later, TPMReader DK speculates that Reynolds willingly threw "Denny from the train" to distance himself from the scandal so he could prevail in his own close election. Elsewhere AMERICAblog asks, "Mr. Reynolds, why is your chief of staff advising a child sex predator?" and Think Progress noted that Reynolds accepted $100K from in July.

TPM Cafe's Greg Sargent urges First Lady Laura Bush to call off her 10/4 luncheon honoring Reynolds and on the right Instapundit felt the need to point out: "And I should note that I'm no relation to Tom Reynolds, in case anyone wonders."

SHIMKUS: And The Hits Just Keep On Comin'

Writing that the scandal "just gets better and better" TPM Reader DK looks at a St. Louis Post-Dispatch interview with Rep. John Shimkus (R-IL), chairman of the board which oversees the congressional page program, claiming Shimkus shared emails with GOP leadership despite assertions from Hastert's office that Rep. Rodney Alexander's (R-LA) office declined to provide the emails in "question out of respect for the page and his family, who desired privacy."

Over at AMERICAblog, Aravosis posts the transcript of Shimkus introducing Foley to 2002 pages as "someone who spends a lot of time with you also." Foley then "gets up in front of Shimkus and tells a special little story of how he took one male page to a private dinner in downtown Washington, DC. Put the page in his BMW and "cruised" - Foley's word - to dinner."

ELECTION '06 FALLOUT: Money For Nothing, And House Seats For Free

TPM Cafe's Greg Sargent takes a short look at Foley's likely replacement on the ballot: "The frontrunner right now ... is Florida State Rep. Joe Negron, a 45-year-old lawyer and aggressive fundraiser. Who is Negron? Negron full-throatedly supported Gov. Jeb Bush's efforts to intervene and prevent doctors from allowing the death of Terry Schiavo."

MyDD's Jerome Armstrong doesn't see how the GOP could rescue Foley's seat: "The notion that a Republican can replace Foley is absurd. Any politician that is willing to be associated with Mark Foley's name on the ballot has stupid written on their back. What's the slogan going to be? A vote for the pedophile is a vote for me?" While Chris Bowersargues that FL-16 demonstrates again why Dems need a 50 state strategy.

TPM Reader DK looks at Foley's relative fundraising prowess, Chris Carney calls on Rep. Don Sherwood (R-PA) to cancel all fundraiser's with the GOP leadership, and Martin Lewis has a photo of Pres. Bush with Foley at The Huffington Post.

VA SEN: 156 To 1 Blowout

Washington Post, in a 9/29 editorial: "We hope the present discussion won't drown out a broader debate about what each candidate would seek to accomplish as a senator." AllenHQ: "Yes, if only there was some sort of media outlet -- I don't know, a newspaper or something -- who could tell us about the important issues." The site notes WaPo has done 156 stories about 'Macaca' in the past 60 days and 1 on Sen. George Allen's (R) "major energy policy proposal." The A-Team piles on.

Meanwhile, over at TPM Cafe, Matt Corley notes that Allen recently sponsored a bill helping African-American farmers collect funds from a civil rights lawsuit. But according to one group's pres., they've been on Allen to drop the bill "since he's been in [the Senate]."

On the Dem side, Kos notes that ex-Navy Sec. Jim Webb (D) will report having raised $3M in the last quarter alone. MyDD's Jonathan Singer: "The RNC could surely move some money into the race, but that would make it even more difficult for them to reach the $60 million they had promised for Republican turnout efforts -- an amount that already appeared unreachable when it was first announced."

Lowell finds some unintentional comedy in a planned Allen TV appearance, while Mark Foley pops up for having given Allen a contribution. The race also showed up on this week's SNL, and YouTube has video.

CLINTON: Unco-optable

As USA Today takes a look at Sen. Hillary Clinton's (D-NY) use of her husband to better her relationship with the blogosphere, TalkLeft's Jeralyn Merritt looks at HRC's three options (ignore them, attack them or co-opt them): "It's not that simple. The first and second suggested options would be fruitless. The third is not possible. Politicans as astute as the Clintons surely know this."

THOUGHT OF THE DAY: Arch-Capitalist Market Deification

Progressive activist Chris Bowers at MyDD notices "a huge upswing" in "diarists insisting that election futures trading is an accurate predictor of election outcomes." Bowers argues such tools are "hogwash" and little more than "arch-capitalist, libertarian, market deification." Bowers goes on to list recent faulty predictions including a Dem takeover of the Senate in '02, Howard Dean winning the IA caucus, and Pres. Bush winning the popular vote in '00.

LEST WE FOGET: Not A Good Sign For John McCain

Extreme Mortman notes the sad record of Pres. Teddy Roosevelt -- in the RFK Stadium races during Nationals Games. Heading into the final weekend, Lincoln and Jefferson were tied with 14 wins, followed by Washington with 7. Poor TR, well, he never won a race.