September 30, 2006

Blogometer Extra

House Update

CO 04: Mus-Grave Situation

  Upstart Dem challenger Angie Paccione has come almost out of nowhere in what was thought to be an easy re-election year for staunchly conservative incumbent Rep. Marilyn Musgrave (R) in Colorado's 4th.  CQ Politics has, per Greg Sargent at TPMCafe, "changed the rating of the race from 'Republican Favored' to 'Leans Republican.'"  And it may be Musgrave's unmovable rightness that is the root cause for the swing.  She recently declared at a so-called "values voter" Republican retreat that, despite everything else going on in the nation and the world, "gay marriage is the most important issue facing the country."  Potential voters seem inclined to disagree.

FL 16: The Folly Of Foley

  Friday morning, Tim Mahoney woke up in relative obscurity as the Democratic congressional challenger to an entrenched Republican incumbent likely to steamroll his way to re-election.  Within hours, Mahoney was the decided favorite to take the seat.  That's because Rep. Mark Foley (R) went from Congressman to unemployed pariah as news spread like a dust devil across the country of his illicit communications with a 16-year-old page.  As the story first spread, Foley and his team pooh-poohed it, saying (as John Aravosis at AMERICAblog reports) the messages in question "were entirely appropriate and that their release is part of a smear campaign by his opponent."  But then more and more e-mails and instant messages were released, and it became clear that this was much more than just simple hellos and goodbyes.  (We'll spare you the details in this column, but they're available for your viewing here, and be warned--they are graphic.)

  In quick fashion, the news made national headlines and before long, Foley had tendered his resignation with apologies--but curiously, no direct acknowledgment of wrongdoing.  By late Friday afternoon, revelations that House GOP leadership had been made aware of Foley's behavior for almost a year and done nothing--even while Foley sat on sex crimes caucus--began to spread throughout the blogosphere, and by the evening, Raw Story reported (using Roll Call as its source) that House Minority Leader Rep. Nancy Pelosi (D-CA) had offered "a resolution ordering an immediate ethics probe into the behavior" of Foley, the House passing it by a vote of 410-0. 

  Where this sordid story may lead and how much fallout will occur remains to be seen as details are worked out and culpability assigned, but this is certainly among the biggest stories of the election season so far, if not the political year... and it's turned the formerly unheralded Tim Mahoney into an instant frontrunner.

NY 26: Reynolds Green With Envy

  Incumbent Rep. Tom Reynolds (R), head of the National Republican Congressional Committee, is, as Greg Sargent at TPMCafe points out, "at risk of losing his own seat."  Sargent reports on a new poll showing Reynolds "clinging to a two-point lead over Dem challenger Jack Davis," whom Reynolds defeated in 2004.  "Interestingly," Sargent writes, "the Green Party candidate ... may decide the race," scoring 8 points on the poll.  And wouldn't you know it, right after the poll was completed, the Green Party candidate was apparently "knocked off the ballot ... making the race even closer," by presumably favoring Davis with left-leaning Greens looking for a home.

VA 02: That '70s Blow

  Jim Hoeft at Bearing Drift wants to "make this perfectly clear: ... I am not a paid blogger... Please give me more credit than that."  Hoeft's moment in the sun comes courtesy of his research that reveals Democratic congressional candidate Phil Kellam was "convicted of assaulting a woman in 1978 when he was a college student in North Carolina."  (Jon Frank at The Virginian-Pilot notes more accurately that Kellam plead guilty to, but was never convicted of, simple assault "after a confrontation with a woman after a traffic incident.")

  How did all of this information come to Hoeft's attention?  Frank at the V-P reports:

Tim Murtaugh, the campaign manager for U.S. Rep. Thelma Drake, Kellam's opponent, acknowledged that he traveled to North Carolina in August to check out an anonymous tip about the charge, get a copy of the legal document and talk to the victim.  However, Murtaugh said he did nothing with the information, insisting that the campaign was not responsible for the reports on the Internet.

The blog's editor also insisted he did not get the document from Drake's campaign.

  Regardless of the details, the story was out and Kellam camp damage control commenced at once.  Kellam himself acknowledged the incident and issued a statement of regret for his actions 28 years ago, and then lashed out at Hoeft, saying his post was "egregious, wrong and libelous."  It remains to be seen what impact the situation will have on district polling, but given the closeness of the battle between Drake and her challenger, it may tip things in favor of the incumbent, to Kellam's chagrin.

Posted by Conn Carroll at September 30, 2006 09:24 AM