September 29, 2006

Blogometer Extra

TERROR POLITICS: Survey Says... Scram!

  A new poll of Iraqi citizens finds that "seven in ten Iraqis want US-led forces to commit to withdraw within a year."  The poll was conducted by the Program on International Policy Attitudes (PIPA) for WorldPublicOpinion.org.

  Faiz at Think Progress excised meatier portions from the poll, the report of which can be found in a PDF file here.  Faiz summarizes:

A large majority of Iraqis–71%–say they would like the Iraqi government to ask for US-led forces to be withdrawn from Iraq within a year or less.  Given four options, 37 percent take the position that they would like US-led forces withdrawn “within six months,” while another 34 percent opt for “gradually withdraw[ing] US-led forces according to a one-year timeline.”

Support for attacks against US-led forces has increased sharply to 61 percent (27% strongly, 34% somewhat).  This represents a 14-point increase from January 2006, when only 47 percent of Iraqis supported attacks.

More broadly, 79 percent of Iraqis say that the US is having a negative influence on the situation in Iraq, with just 14 percent saying that it is having a positive influence.

Asked “If the US made a commitment to withdraw from Iraq according to a timeline, do you think this would strengthen the Iraqi government, weaken it, or have no effect either way?”  53 percent said that it would strengthen the government, while just 24 percent said it would weaken the government.

Asked what effect it would have “if US-led forces withdraw from Iraq in the next six months,” 58 percent overall say that violence would decrease (35% a lot, 23% a little).

  "An overwhelming majority," Faiz notes, "believes that the US military presence in Iraq is provoking more conflict than it is preventing."

  Chris Bowers at MyDD leaps on one particular item.  "Only 9% of Iraqis want the United States to 'stay as long as it takes' in Iraq," he writes. "That is one helluva democracy we are building in Iraq, when a foreign country occupies it indefinitely against the will of 91% of the population."

  Kevin Drum at The Washington Monthly comments on the poll, as well as two others with similarly disheartening results.  He quotes the Washington Post on the two additional surveys:

In Baghdad, for example, nearly three-quarters of residents polled said they would feel safer if U.S. and other foreign forces left Iraq, with 65 percent of those asked favoring an immediate pullout, according to State Department polling results obtained by The Washington Post.

The director of another Iraqi polling firm, who spoke on condition of anonymity because he feared being killed, said public opinion surveys he conducted last month showed that 80 percent of Iraqis who were questioned favored an immediate withdrawal.

  Drum wraps, "[T]he results are clear and discouraging for 'stay the course' fans.  The Iraqi leadership may be reluctant to see us go, but what are the odds that an occupation force can succeed in quelling violence if three-quarters of the population wants them to leave?"  Commenter Al retorts, "We're building democracy in Iraq.  We can't be distracted by polls.

TERROR POLITICS II: The Knights Who Say "NIE!"

  Rep. Jane Harman (D-CA), the top Dem on the House intelligence committee, created quite a stir when on Tuesday she let it be known that there was a draft of a National Intelligence Estimate (NIE) focused solely on Iraq, held up because "some of our leaders don't want us to see it until after the election."  It came shortly after the hubbub over the (different) NIE that President Bush released a few pages of earlier after pressure from many sides.

  As might be expected, the Harman revelation caught the notice of attentive bloggers, in particular the crew at Talking Points Memo and its sister site, TPMmuckracker.  First things first; did this Iraq NIE draft exist, was Harman talking straight?  Justin Rood at the 'raker said, well, yes and no.  "[It] was never a big secret," Rood writes; "After Democrats bellowed for one in late July, Director of National Intelligence John Negroponte announced Aug. 4 he'd whip one up."  A caveat, though: "There's scant evidence the report exists 'in draft form' -- Harman may have an inside track on the matter, but sources tell me the process remains in a nascent stage."

  His sources were right, if Homeland Security Advisor Frances Townsend is to be believed.  Josh Marshall at TPM: "[She] confirmed its existence but said it won't be released till January.  Townsend claimed the timing has nothing to do with the election, just the ordinary schedule."  He later added, "We're now hearing Townsend's statement in the briefing may have included some sleight of hand to confuse people as to which report is being discussed."

  Rep. Harman responded to Townsend's curious obfuscation with a followup letter directed at Negroponte.  Rood at 'raker quotes from it:

...Though you promised that the NIE would be completed "in a timely manner," senior White House officials have indicated publicly that the report may not be completed until January 2007.

This timetable is unacceptable.  Sectarian violence, which has reached record levels and continues to grow, is putting our troops - not to mention millions of Iraqis - at grave risk. ...

NIEs have been produced in as little as several weeks, as in the case of the 2002 report on Iraqi WMD.  While I understand the desire to be thorough, events in Iraq make it urgent that the Intelligence Community produce this NIE immediately.  If your intention is to delay this report until after the November elections, I do not think that is appropriate given that U.S. troops are at risk at this moment.

  Marshall digests all of this at TPM, writing, "The president says the election is supposed to be about national security.  So where's the report?  What's the delay?  What are they afraid of?"

  Rood has an answer:

In prognosticating what the upcoming Iraq NIE would say, Newsweek's Mark Hosenball reported two weeks ago that Defense officials briefing lawmakers were "paint[ing] a scenario in which Iraq could dissolve into civil war if Iraqi security forces don't soon get their act together." ... Seeing those conclusions leaked to the media -- that's an October surprise the White House would likely hope to avoid.

Posted by Conn Carroll at September 29, 2006 05:53 AM