September 29, 2006
9/29: Crossing The Great Divide
The Blogometer harbors no illusions that the divisions between the right and left blogosphere will ever be bridged. But we do believe that as the blogosphere continues to mature, bloggers' proficiency in projecting their influence outside of "a series of tubes" and into the real world will only continue. On 9/28, lefty bloggers are left lamenting their failure to get Dems to stand up to the GOP on torture and feel obliged to defend their record in contested elections, but could real-world victories be just around the corner? Sen. Conrad Burns' (R-MT) continued troubles point to a win for netroots primary-backed state Senate Pres. Jon Tester (D-MT) and netroots recruited ex-Navy sec. James Webb (D-VA) has a real shot of knocking off early WH'08 favorite Sen. George Allen (R-VA). If the netroots continue to honestly look at their strengths and weaknesses, as MyDD's Matt Stoller does 9/28, it might not be too long before the netroots can be proud of Dems again.
TORTURE POLITICS: The "Padilla Treatment" For All?
Discussion of the Military Commissions Act dominated lefty blogs 9/29. A sampling of reax:
- Talking Points Memo's Josh Marshall: "As others have noted in more detail, this law allows the president to detain any US citizen in the United States and hold him or her without trial forever. All the president needs to do is find that you are an 'enemy combatant'. And it's entirely his call.
- Christy Hardin Smith at firedoglake: "It expressly forbids suspension of the writ of habeas corpus except under very specific and highly limited circumstances - and as we are neither dealing with a case of rebellion or invasion at the time of this attempted enactment of this torture law in Congress, I am really wondering on what leg they propose to stand when arguing constitutionality at the first legal challenge to this law."
- Atrios: "The writ of habeas corpus is one of those basic foundations of modern Democracy. Without it, words like liberty and freedom have no meaning. These are bad people running our government. Very bad."
- Unclaimed Territory: "even if there were a habeas corpus right inserted back into the legislation (which is unlikely at this point anyway), it wouldn't matter much, if at all, because the law would authorize your detention simply based on the DoD's decree that you are an enemy combatant, regardless of whether it was accurate. This is basically the legalization of the Jose Padilla treatment -- empowering the President to throw people into black holes with little or no recourse, based solely on his say-so."
- Matthew Yglesias: "There will certainly be challenges, but I wouldn't count on anything. The court-stripping issue hasn't been litigated all that much, but the idea that congress has the power to do this kind of thing has some real support from the text of the constitution. What's more, courts are generally disinclined to interfere in national security questions. And, of course, there's no particular reason to think that the Supreme Court's five conservative justices disagree with America's conservative politicians about this."
- Balkinization: "although the MCA attempts to eliminate judicial review, and in particular the writ of habeas corpus, it is by no means certain that it has succeeded. The suspension of habeas may be unconstitutional. Any such suspension must be consistent with the Suspension Clause of Article I, section 9."
Righty blogs were less concerned. The Volokh Conspiracy's Orin Kerr's even pens a defense of his non-posting on the issue. National Review Online's Jonah Goldberg turns to a reader for analysis on the habeas provisions of the bill: "This has nothing to do with American citizens or anyone who is voluntarily within the United States. In fact those who have been found to be Americans (e.g. Hamdi and Padilla) cannot even be held at GITMO (see John Yoo's new book, where he describes in detail how this policy was arrived at)."
Instapundit offers his own similar conclusions: "I've seen some people calling this an abolition of habeas corpus, but as I understand it, habeas is suspended only with regard to non-citizens. This removes a key danger of abuse, since the potential politically-motivated abuses that are most worrisome involve U.S. citizens, not aliens. And Congress quite explicitly has the Constitutional power to suspend the writ of habeas corpus, though whether this counts as a "suspension" of the writ is open for debate."
Back on the left, there was also plenty of thoughts on the vagueness of the detainee treatment provision. DailyKos' Hunter first claims "McCain Torture Compromise Bill Allows Sodomy, Rape of Prisoners" but hen later recants: "Actually, now I feel badly about this post. It would be more accurate to say that it is "unclear" whether or not actual rape is allowed, or merely all sexual violence up to and possibly including rape. Some interpreters of the bill say yes: some interpreters say no, the torturer must stop the sexual assault at the point of entry. The Senate chose to refuse further debate on the issue, deeming that clarity unimportant."
Iraq war supporter and fierce Pres. Bush critic Andrew Sullivan argues for the nationalization of the election on the torture bill issue: "The only response is for the public to send a message this fall. In congressional races, your decision should always take into account the quality of the individual candidates. But this November, the stakes are higher. If this Republican party maintains control of all branches of government, the danger to individual liberty is extremely grave. Put aside all your concerns about the Democratic leadership. What matters now is that this juggernaut against individual liberty and constitutional rights be stopped."
LANDSCAPE: Put This in Your Poll And Smoke It
Chris Bowers at MyDD looks at end of September generic ballot averages for the past five cycles
2006: Dems 48.4%--Reps 38.2%. Democratic Margin: 10.2% 2004: Dems 45.3%--Reps 44.3%. Democratic Margin: 1.0% 2002: Dems 44.3%--Reps 42.6%. Democratic Margin: 1.7% 2000: Dems 44.5%--Reps 43.3%. Democratic Margin: 1.2% 1998: Dems 42.5%--Reps 46.0%. Democratic Margin: -3.5%Bowers concludes: "[W]hat I want to point out is that our chances in this election are not like our chances in other recent elections. ... This is a whole different ballgame. This is nothing like the other recent elections."
Bowers finds further evidence of a Dem "Wave" in Des Moines Registerarticle reporting: "More than 50,000 Democrats had requested ballots, according to the Iowa secretary of state's office as of Wednesday, compared with just more than 11,000 Republicans, continuing a trend by Democrats in Iowa of emphasizing early voting."
Meanwhile Mystery Pollster has video of The Daily Show's Poll Smoking segment poking fun at the wide divergence in generic ballot results.
LANDSCAPE II: National Or Personal?
Conservative talk show host Hugh Hewitt wants to put the growing "Senate-in-play meme" to rest. Hewitt argues: "Voters are smart, and they are concerned that the nation be defended. Which means that they will not be voting Democrat." Hewitt then looks at five Senate races, including MT, and then writes: "Rick Santorum is the only GOP incumbent facing off against a Democratic nominee pretending not to be in favor of retreat in the face of the enemy, and thus his race is the toughest."
Over at RCP Blog, Jay Cost has a lengthy post on the Senate landscape but concludes: "What I can say is that the theory upon which so many pundits have been relying, the idea of the electorate being magically transformed into a "nationalized" one that thinks about their pocketbook and Bush rather than the individual candidates in the race, is incorrect in important respects. They need to reevaluate. Otherwise, this will not be the first time between now and November that a result will surprise them so much."
CT SEN: Lieberman Under 50%!
The unofficial Lamont Blog has the go to lefty blogger spin on the latest Quinnipiac numbers showing Sen. Joe Lieberman (I) up 49%-39% over cable exec Ned Lamont (D):
- New Q-Poll out this morning, as Lieberman falls under 50% for the first time in Quinnipiac ... This is -4 for Lieberman from their last poll in August.
- The key differences seem to rest with "likely voter" models (the Q-Poll did not release RV data this time), as well as predicting which way unaffliateds will go - in this poll they break for Lieberman, in the most recent ARG poll, they break for Lamont.
- Ned's favorability numbers are still rising as Republicans and Independents get to know him (+6 since last month) while his unfavorable numbers are actually falling as more people form opinions of him.
Amarko55 at My Left Nutmeg adds: "To steal a line from the Hitchhiker's Guide to the Universe, Do Not Panic! Yeah, I'd like to be up 10 but to be within 10 of a three term senator 5 weeks out is acceptable."
Matt Stoller at MyDD hits Lieberman for granting an interview to "the right-wing billionaire backed blog outlet" Pajamas Media: "Lieberman is throwing the whole party under the bus. It's time for 2008 candidates to step up."
MT SEN: No, They're Saying Booooo-urns
Talking Points Memo's Josh Marshall looks at AP reports of Sen. Conrad Burns (R) use of a mocking Swedish accent and joking about the number of Italian-Americans at the Federal Aviation Administration and quips: "Conrad Burns (R-MT) working to keep on schedule to insult every ethnic group in advance of November elections."
NJ SEN: The Old Switcheroo II?
Following new reports of ethics troubles for Sen. Robert Menendez (D) National Review Online's John Podhoretz received "lots of e-mails about how New Jersey's Democrats will just dump" Menendez "in the next few weeks for former interim Gov. Dick Codey - just as Bob Torricelli quit the race and allowed former Sen. Frank Lautenberg to waltz in. Sorry. Not gonna happen this time. Tom Kean is just too credible a candidate, far more palatable to New Jersey voters than Doug Forrester was in either of his last two races. You can play that switcheroo once."
Also at The CornerJonah Goldberg argues Kean should pre-empt such a move: "I think Kean should make an issue of this now. He could say - or suggest - that this is standard operating procedure of the Democrats and that this buzz shows how corrupt the entire New Jersey Democratic Party is. ... The benefit of doing all this is that it would make it much harder for the Democrats to actually drop Menendez and it would prepare the public to react negatively to the tactic if they did.
Meanwhile, on the left Jason Zengerle at The Plank makes the case for dropping Menendez: "It's become fashionable among some conservatives to root for the Republicans to lose control of Congress this November so that it might serve as a wake-up call to the GOP that the party has lost its way. I thought I might try to start a similar trend among liberals: We should root for Bob Menendez's defeat in the New Jersey Senate race so that it might serve as a wake-up call to the New Jersey Democratic party that it really needs to clean up its act."
OH SEN: Life, Liberty, And The Pursuit Of Poll-Tested Cowardice
The Washington Monthly's Kevin Drum looks at email from OH Dems promising to abandon Rep. Sherrod Brown (D-13) for his vote in favor of the torture bill and argues that despite his own dislike for Dem "poll-tested cowardice on the detainee bill over the past couple of weeks" such a decision would play right into Karl Rove's hands: "The leadership of the Republican Party decided after 9/11 to govern the country by trying to keep it in a state of permanent panic and tarring anyone who opposed their calculated panic as a weak-kneed appeaser. The way to fight this is not to give in to Karl Rove's political machinations, it's to fight them. It worked for Thomas Jefferson, after all, and Democrats consider him the founder of their party. They should take a lesson from him."
PA SEN: We're Gonna Need A Montage
Following Treas. Bob Casey's (D) repeated no shows at debates, National Review Online's Alex Charyna passes along a video montage of Casey non-debate clips from the Sen. Rick Santorum (R) campaign.
VA SEN: You Stay Classy, VA SEN
Under the header "Allen spits on women" DailyKos' founder Markos Moulitsas links to a Swing State Project collection of four separate examples "of Allen spitting chewing tobacco on women or little girls, all of them leaving tobacco spittle on their shoes."
Over at Raising Kaine, Eric posts a copy of "Allen's New Mailer" featuring a deer head in a mail box and writes: "I'm kinda hoping that I don't get one." TPM Cafe's Greg Sargent has video of Chesterton, MD resident Pat WaringHardball appearance claiming to have heard Allen use the n-word at a UVA rugby game in 1978.
VA SEN II: The Socially Liberal Paleocon
National Review Online's John Podhoretz argues that ex-Navy sec. James Webb (D) "is a brilliant and unclassifiable guy" who is "very close to being a paleocon with socially liberal attitudes." Podhoretz therefore finds it ironic "that his campaign has now staked itself on the incredibly dreary politically correct issue of "offensive language" dating back decades. Instead of being the philosopher-novelist candidate, Webb is instead on the line in the most dispiriting and unintelligent political contest the United States has seen in years."
Meanwhile Captain's Quarters takes the Washington Post to task for ignoring Allen's introduction of "a measure intended to benefit black farmers who missed a deadline for a settlement of a discrimination lawsuit against the Department of Agriculture" and instead painting "a one-sided picture" of the "mudslinging in Virginia."
Finally, Chad Dotson at RedState has video of Allen's new TV ad featuring female Naval Academy grads attacking Webb.
CONVENTION '08: Veepstakes Preview?
John McIntyre at RCP Blog looks at how each party's choice in convention site may foretell their eventual choice in VP candidate. On the GOP: "The Bush-Cheney ticket won 46% in Minnesota in 2000 and 48% in 2004. Governor Tim Pawlenty faces a tough reelection battle this year, but he's generally believed to have a slight edge. Assuming Mr. Pawlenty can take care of business this fall and remain reasonably popular through the summer of 2008, the 45-year old-will almost certainly be near the top of the short list for the eventual GOP Veep nominee." On Dems: "Don't be surprised to see the Democrats settle on Denver for their convention (Denver and New York are the finalists) and also take a long, hard look hard at New Mexico Governor Bill Richardson for VP and maybe Arizona Governor Janet Napolitano if Senator Hillary Clinton is not the Democratic nominee."
DailyKos' founder Markos Moulitsas also argues that a Denver choice would provide the best opportunity to showcase Dem strength in the mountain west: "Colorado Democrats are about to build on their 2004 successes ... with even more dramatic victories this year -- at least the governor's race and one House seat, and potentially three additional House seats. By the end of this year, we should have Democratic governors in much of the Mountain West -- Montana, Wyoming, Colorado, Arizona, and New Mexico. Republicans are down to Nevada (maybe) and their two lonely outposts in Idaho and Utah. Here we have a banner opportunity to deliver the party message straight into the heart of this new rising political force, and the party establishment wants to have their convention in frakin' New York?"
GIULIANI: Unlikely Emerald Ground Gainer
John Podhoretz at National Review Online notes Strategic Vision's latest WA poll has ex-NY mayor Rudy Giuliani (R) leading Sen. John McCain (R-AZ) 43%-24% with MA Gov. Mitt Romney at 7%. Podhoretz writes: "Don't get me wrong. I like Romney. But Rudy just keeps gaining ground in unlikely places."
CLINTON: It's "I Love HRC Day" For Andrew Sullivan
Andrew Sullivan posts the text of Sen. Hillary Clinton's (D-NY) speech against the detainee treatment bill under the header "The Goldwater Girl." Sullivan also has video of the speech under the header "Hillary's Break-Through Speech" and writes: "Someone finally says no to torture."
FRIST: Frist's Feckapoolaza
Power Line's Scott Johnson notes Senate maj. leader Bill Frist's (R-TN) success in securing a cloture vote for the Secure Fence Act 9/28 despite Kausfiles prediction that Frist would "flakeout" on the issue. For his part, Kaus now finds Frist to be "brimming with feck."
BLOGGER VS. BLOGGER: "The Fringe Right-Wing National Review" Strikes Again
Sirotablog takes Jim Geraghty "of the fringe right-wing National Review" to task for his Washington Timesop-ed on the relative success of "netroots" backed Dem candidates. Sirota notes: "there is a deeper point here: every single candidate on this list who lost was a challenger. ... Even the ones who were challengers in open-seat elections were running in states or districts that were HEAVILY Republican - states/districts where no challenger was even supposed to have a shred of a chance to compete, much less win. For the very few who don't understand why this is an important point, let me spell it out here: incumbents win somewhere in the neighborhood of 95-99% of all congressional races."
Sirota goes on to highlight the longterm importance of these challenges: "What he doesn't say, of course, is that the list is chock full of candidates who almost won in districts they weren't even supposed to be able to break 40 percent in. What he doesn't say is that these candidates were able to do that with the help of a political medium that has been at full speed for all of about 3 years - a political medium going up against a Republican machine that has been on overdrive for the last 3 decades."
MyDD's Chris Bowers links to Sirota and adds: "Memo to everyone: Democrats only flipped six Republican-held House seats in 2004, and two Republican held Senate seats. Of those eight flips, the blogosphere was heavily involved in three. Find me a progressive advocacy group with a win rate like that anywhere. When you only focus on challengers, you will always lose more than you will win. The blogosphere will always focus on challenging Republicans in their own turf--that is just the way we work."
THOUGHT OF THE DAY: Ya Can't Win Without A Good Ground Game
MyDD's Matt Stoller catalogues the strength of the netroots and then asks: "Where are we weakest?" Stoller answers: "I would argue that our understanding of field and our ability to discuss it are lacking." Stoller continued:
Over the next few years, the blogosphere will change the dialogue even more than it already has. My guess is that voter registration and mobilization is going to move (at least partially) online, and whole new segments of voters will respond to different messaging in somewhat unpredictable ways. We should get familiar with field. There are many ways to do so, of course. You can go phone-bank, you can canvass, and you can poll-watch. On election day, I recommend that if you're not heavily involved in an existing campaign that you become an actual poll worker. You can sign up at Pollworkers for Democracy. What I saw in the Donna Edwards campaign was a total lack of competence and ability in the Maryland Board of Elections, and I imagine that's true across the country.
LEST WE FORGET: For Proficiency In Stereotyping
Matthew Yglesias doesn't "want to get too crudely reductive here," but does note that despite a "entirely African-American staff" the "Mocha Hut on 13th Street" plays music that "bears on odd resemblance to . . . what's on my iPod." Yglesias then wonders: "Is it possible that there's some kind of gentrification consultant out there telling the Hut's management team what kind of music will appeal to the neighborhood's newer demographic?" But rather than complain about his stereotyping victimization Yglesias offers a personal request: "If so, can that person tell the owners of the Mercadito Ramos that they should refrigerate their Diet Coke supply?"
Posted by at September 29, 2006 01:33 PM
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