August 03, 2006

Blogometer PM Extra I

POLL UPDATE: Indycrats Stay Home

Following women's studies prof. Francine Busby's (D-CA) loss to Rep. Brian Bilbray(R-CA) progressive activist MyDD teamed up with 527 Courage Campaign commissioning a poll to explain Busby's loss. Chris Bowers summarizes the findings:

Voters did not believe either candidate's vow to change President Bush's policies. This was as true of Bilbray on immigration as it was of Busby on the culture of corruption or troop deployment in Iraq. Thus, while Independents hold an outlook very similar to Democrats on a range of people and issues, including the Bush administration, the direction of the country, and public policy, they are not turning to Democrats. In fact, most Independents are not even bothering to vote. Therefore, if Democrats want to win in November, we conclude the following:

• 1. The culture of corruption message must be abandoned altogether unless there is a direct connection to the opposing candidate (think Tom DeLay, Richard Pombo and Bob Ney)
• 2. Democrats should stop proposing, or at least stop foregrounding, legislation to enact if or when they are in control of Congress. Since few believe the Democrats can turn these proposals into law, we do not think anyone will vote for Democrats or against Republicans based on this issue.
• 3. Expect Democratic pick-ups in November in districts where: A. Less money will be spent (which quite possibly is everywhere); B. There will be less media attention preventing a potential "gaffe" (again, which quite possibly will be everywhere); C. There is a higher percentage of Democrats relative to Republicans (most competitive, Republican-held districts this fall); or D. Fewer third party candidates will be on the ballot.

Bowers concludes: "In the current environment, Democrats will likely make gains and may even win control of the House. Their base appears both fired up and solid, at least compared to what appears to be a somewhat demoralized Republican and conservative base. However, based on the results of the special election in California's 50th congressional district, a pro-Democratic realignment appears unlikely. Since any such realignment is supposed to be an "Indycrat realignment" where Independents side overwhelmingly with Democrats, the real worry for Democrats is that movable Independents will either stay home or vote third party. That is what happened in the CA-50 special election."

Greg Pollowitz at National Review Online looks at Bowers' results and comments: "Framing the Republicans as a "culture of corruption" and the Democrats as an alternative is not believable? Not good news for Democrats in close races around the country. Schwarzenegger as "maverick 'outsider' " is also important. It might explain why Rudy Giuliani leads all polls for the GOP in 2008 and it certainly makes Jim Geraghty's post from a few days ago - that Arnold's race is a must-win for Republicans - look spot on.

Also at NRO, Pollowitz forwards a reader criticism of a recent NPR poll predicting a Dem landslide this fall:

I will grant you that I am no polling rocket scientist, but a poll of 1000 people across 50 congressional districts? If spread evenly, that means 20 respondents per district, which seems like a very shallow sample from which to predict the vote of the hundreds of thousands of persons in that district. Also, in looking at the ages of the respondents, over 65% were over the age of 40. I do not think this represents the American electorate well, but perhaps it does. I would like to see better data. Finally, 52% were women, which again seems too high in respect of likely voters. Again, I would like to see confirmatory data. Overhanging this all were concerns about "the war", which certainly factored in concerns over the Israeli conflict in Lebanon. This could be a non-issue by November.

Posted by Conn Carroll at August 3, 2006 02:16 PM