8/22: For Those Of You Keeping Score At Home
Accountability seems to be the watchword of the blogosphere today. For lefty bloggers, it has developed into a major theme for the '06 campaign, and Pres. Bush's 8/21 suggestion that Iraq had nothing to do with 9/11 sent bloggers scurrying to their archives to prove otherwise. But GOPers aren't the only ones in lefty bloggers' sights. Sen. Joe Lieberman's (I-CT) recent hire, Dan Gerstein, is fast developing into progressive blogger enemy #1 for his stepped-up roll in attacking cable exec Ned Lamont (D-CT), Brookings Institute's Kenneth Pollack gets a cold reception for his pre-Iraq war views, and Dem consultant Steve McMahon takes fire for his contribution to the Darcy Burner (D-WA 08) campaign. Progressive bloggers strongly believe that increased criticism of their own can increase their party's effectiveness down the road. For that accountability to be effective, skins on all sides are going to have to thicken up a bit.
TERROR POLITICS: It Depends On What Your Definition Of Nothing Is
Bloggers of all stripes tuned into Pres. Bush's 8/21 presser. Viewers' political leanings dictated their reviews. The left's AMERICAblog's John in DC: "35% of the American public is all this disaster of a war, and this disaster of a president, have left. When George Bush attacks Democrats for wanting to change the course in Iraq, he now attacks the overwhelming majority of the American public. Note to Republicans: Keep this jackass talking." Many on the left also celebrated Bush's admission that Iraq did not order the 9/11 attacks. ThinkProgress has video of the segment and comments:
As ThinkProgress has repeatedlydocumented , Vice President Cheney cited "evidence" cooked up by Douglas Feith and others to claim it was "pretty well confirmed" that Iraq had contacts with 9/11 hijackers.
On the right, AcademicElephant at RedState had a glowing review for Bush, particularly Bush's distinction between criticizing one's patriotism and judgement:
I have long been amazed by the pique displayed by the left when they feel their patriotism is being called into question. "How dare you question my patriotism?" is now the standard response to any suggestion that their collective stance on a security issue is not in our best national interests. Don't you dare criticize them. They're patriots. ... The reason that I find this amazing is that personally, I don't care if they're patriots and I find it rather bizarre that they care so much what I (as a representative of pro-Bush Republicans) think of their patriotism. ... I do, however, care about their judgment. These are the sort of specific questions I would like to see answered by those on the left who are eager to leave Iraq now. I am not, however, interested in an abstract debate over their patriotism. And I'm very glad to see the President and his administration start to call the Democrats on this canard of an argument.
Meanwhile Kausfiles picks up on an Edward Luttwakarticle in the Jerusalem Post reminding readers that "6,821 Americans ... died to conquer the eight square miles of Iwo Jima." Kaus rationalizes "That's more than twice the number of Americans who've died in the entire Iraq war."
TERROR POLITICS II: We Thought Those Names Sounded Familiar
Lefty bloggers were impressed with an 8/21 Washington Postop-ed on the Iraq civil war, but were not about to let authors Daniel L. Byman and Kenneth M. Pollack off without a trip down memory lane. Matthew Yglesias at TAPPED looks at a Washington Quarterlyeffort by the same duo and notes a difference in troop requirements:
Note the pointed absence of a call for 300,000 or 400,000 or 500,000 troops. Rather, "at least 100,000" was said to be adequate. And if you look back at the record, you'll find that this was entirely typical of hawkish writing at the time -- the adequacy of a small force wasn't an eccentric Rumsfeldian view; it was held by almost all of the hawks, liberal or otherwise, who backed the war. The people talking about a much larger force were overwhelmingly invasion skeptics who were not so much calling for such a force than simply raising (warranted) questions about the feasibility of the mission.
John Quiggin at Crooked Timber focussed on this Pollack passage: "How Iraq got to this point is now an issue for historians (and perhaps for voters in 2008); what matters today is how to move forward." Quiggin comments:
"This was so brazen that I thought I must have got him confused with someone else. But no, it's the same Kenneth Pollack who wrote The Threatening Storm: The Case for Invading Iraq."
CLINTON: All The Time, Atrios
Atrios looks at Time's 8/20 poll showing a hypothetical McCain/Clinton race at 49%-47% and finds that "given the sycophantic press McCain always gets it's actually interesting that such a thing would be within the" margin of error. Atrios then asks: "Clinton doesn't get bad press overall -- it's a bit of a mix - but is nonetheless often associated with "divisive" or "polarizing" or "love her or hate her" kind of rhetoric. As is almost always the case with issues or people who "divide the country" such descriptions are completely arbitrary and could apply to just about any well-known person or issue. How often does such rhetoric get applied to George W. Bush for example?"
BROWNBACK: The John McCain Of '08
Daniel Drezner acknowledges Sen. John McCain's (R-AZ) '08 frontrunner status and asks the "obvious" question: "who's going to play the role of insurgent outsider to McCain's front-runner?" Drezner's money is on Sen. Sam Brownback (R-KS).
Pejam Yousefzdeh at RedState has similar thoughts: "I suggest that Sam Brownback will be the new McCain. He will appeal to the ideologues on the Right throughout the primary and caucus season. He will also serve as the conscience of the Republican Party given his involvement in humanitarian issues like Darfur and given his rather complex set of policy priorities. This isn't to say that I necessarily support Brownback; indeed, I don't know enough about him and probably would find another candidate to gravitate towards (Tim Pawlenty? Mark Sanford, if he can be persuaded to run?), but Brownback is well-positioned to hold the GOP's feet to the fire on a whole host of issues of consequence."
MCCAIN: The Howard Dean Of '08
Patrick Hynes at Ankle Biting Pundits picks up on conservative blogger complaints that Sen. John McCain (R-AZ) is not as new media savvy as he could be and responds:
The idea here is that McCain may have top-notch strategists on board, but they are all stuck in 2000 and won't be able compete with other campaigns in the blogosphere. Well, maybe. I mean, sure, Sen. McCain has a lot of work to do if he's going to convince established right-of-center bloggers like, say, John Hawkins, who don't like him much at all, that he's the right guy for the top job. ... But maybe he's already doing that. Take, for example, the Senator's timely and impactful guest post at Porkbusters.com. Or his well-received Podcast interview on the Glenn & Helen Show. Then there's the fact that media consultant Mark McKinnon is pretty clued in to the Web 2.0 phenomenon. ... He may not be the "Howard Dean of 2008" (who wants to be that!?), but McCain clearly understands the power of the New Media."
ROMNEY: The Monagomist Of '08
Kate O'Beirne at National Review Online looks at a Salt Lake Tribune 8/21 article on MA Gov. Mitt Romney's great-grandfathers polygamy and quips: "While some might note the upside of generously sharing those handsome Romney genes in the past, current history is noteworthy. Should Mitt Romney join a 2008 race that included John McCain, Rudy Giuliani, Newt Gingrich and George Allen, the only guy in the GOP field with only one wife would be the Mormon."
Back in IA, the Caucus Cooler notes McCain's frontrunner status in the state but argues Romney is best positioned to become the alternative: "Someone will have to emerge as the alternative, but only Gov. Romney has lined up an organization that can compare and the longer Rudy waits the more trouble he will be in. How can the McCain machine be overcome? And where will the other pieces fall?"
CT SEN: Public Enemy
TRex at progressive hangout firedoglake announces: "Ladies and gentlemen, meet Dan Gerstein, Joe Lieberman's director of media relations and Public Enema No. 1." TRex explains: "Gerstein's mendacity, his insatiable desire to play the victim, not to mention his unabashed media whorishness all combine to make him Joe's kinda guy, the ideal staffer for a campaign utterly devoid of shame but which is positively bursting with a toxic cocktail of hubris, wounded egotism, and a blazing sense of entitlement."
The unofficial Lamont Blog chips in with "Dan Gerstein's Greatest Hits" including:
- In early March, Gerstein anonymously demanded that the Huffington Post censor Howie Klein because Klein had the audacity to write a hard-hitting blog post about Lieberman's troubled history on civil rights and gay rights. Gerstein refused a chance to respond, he just wanted Klein's piece removed.
- Post-primary, Gerstein took the lead in pushing a non-story about a joke Lamont's campaign manager made about two (very corrupt) Republican mayors of Waterbury, forgetting to inform reporters that Lieberman himself made similar jokes about Waterbury while defending his buddy Rowland a few years ago.
- The same week, Gerstein went to reporters attacking Lamont for having the support of Rev. Jackson and Rev. Sharpton, forgetting to inform reporters that Lieberman asked for Sharpton's endorsement a week before he endorsed Ned, and forgetting Lieberman's courting of Farrakhan in 2000.
CT SEN II: Breakdown Party
Mystery Pollster hasn't gotten around to dissecting Quinnipiac's 8/17 CT SEN poll showing Lieberman leading Lamont 53%-41%, but reader Alan phoned Quinnipiac for the % of total respondents in each party. Quinnipiac passed along this data:
Generally speaking, do you consider yourself a Republican, a Democrat an Independent, or what?
LIKELY VOTERS
Republican 25%
Democrat 36
Independent 34
Other 4
DK/NA 1
CT SEN III: Tin Foil Hat Department
Altercation provides a new twist to lefty Lieberman-as-Def/Sec theories: "Here's my prediction: If Lieberman wins the election, he will not switch to the Republicans, as some fear. But he will do the functional equivalent, which is accept Bush's appointment to replace Rumsfeld as Secretary of Defense, resign his seat and allow the Republican governor of Connecticut to appoint a Republican in his stead. That is the implicit deal between the Lieberman camp and Rove, Cheney, Bush etc and the reason, that alone, in the entire country, this is the only race where this most partisan of political operations, refuses to support the Republican in the race."
Right Wing News still isn't buying: "You have wonder if Alterman is actually dumb enough to believe this or whether he's just trying to come up with a scare scenario to try to drive more Democratic voters in Connecticut to Lamont. ... I mean, as we speak, millions of dollars are pouring into the Connecticut, on both sides of the race, that could have very well gone to other Democratic candidates. Turning the Connecticut Senate race into a Democratic money pit could help the GOP pull out another couple of close races in the Senate this November. Plus, just imagine what a black eye it will be for the netroots crowd and the anti-war movement if Lieberman wins as an independent."
Rachel Weiner at TPM Cafe reminds readers who Lieberman's new friends also work for: "If you were wondering which Republicans Joe Lieberman's new GOP pollster, Neil Newhouse, is working for, know this: he's toiling for the reelection campaign of embattled right-wing standardbearer Rick Santorum.
LANDSCAPE: Drops In The Bucket
DavidNYC of Swing State Project took to DailyKos 8/21 to announce the latest DailyKos, MyDD and Swing State Project combined Netroots ActBlue page. David explains: "We picked each of these races in large part because, at least at the time they were added, they were all non-top-tier races. In other words, we - the netroots community - identified races where netroots dollars could go the furthest. When you give to any of these candidates, you'll have the satisfaction of knowing that, collectively, our money is not a mere drop in the bucket, but is actually making a difference." The slate includes: Darcy Burner (WA-08), John Courage (TX-21), Jay Fawcett (CO-05), Paul Hodes (NH-02), Larry Kissell (NC-08), Ned Lamont (CT-SEN), Eric Massa (NY-29), Jerry McNerney (CA-11), Patrick Murphy (PA-08), Dan Seals (IL-10), Joseph Sestak (PA-07), Linda Stender (NJ-07), Jon Tester (MT-Sen), and James Webb (VA-Sen)
Not to be out done Robert B. Bluey at Right Angle Blog pumped Rightroots fundraising efforts which have garnered $42,754 so far. Bluey also highlights recent Rightroot candidate net activity: Michele Bachmann Interview (Captain's Quarters), A Mini-Interview With Chuck Blasdel (Right Wing News), Van Taylor Fights For Texas (RedState Radio), and A Mini-Interview With Mike Whalen (Right Wing News)
Back on the left Chris Bowers at MyDD has his latest Sen outlook:
Overall: Republicans currently control the Senate 55-43-2. Democrats need at least a net total of six seats in order to take control. One incoming Independent, Bernie Sanders (I-VT), has indicated he will caucus with the Democrats. One Independent in a dogfight, Joe Lieberman (CfL-CT), currently indicates that he will caucus with Democrats. Thirty-second forecast, August 21: I currently project Republicans to hold the Senate, 51-48-1, with Democratic pickups in Rhode Island, Pennsylvania, Ohio, Montana and Connecticut. Dick Cheney will be the tie-breaking vote. I do not project any Republican pickups at this time
HI SEN: Akaka Is The New Lamont
Mcjoan at DailyKos shines her light on Sen. Daniel Akaka's (D-HI) fight against Rep. Ed Case (D-02):
Most political talk in Hawaii these days is focused on when, whether, and how the Akaka-Case debate is going to occur. Slated for August 31, the PBS debate is now called into question because Case apparently doesn't want to comply with the AARP's, the debate sponsor, rules for negotiating format. Case is far behind in money. In the last FEC filings, Akaka had over $1 million, and Case just under $400K. But polling leading up to the September 23rd primary is all over the place. That issue aside, we have a Lieberman/Lamont type primary brewing in Hawaii, just with incumbent/challenger roles reversed. The candidate who will keep Bush accountable on the majority of issue that matter, particularly Iraq, is Daniel Akaka.
MI SEN: Righty Bloggers Love David All
Robert B. Bluey at Right Angle Blog, Conservative talk show host Hugh Hewitt, and Erick Erickson at RedState all welcomed the addition of Rep. Jack Kingston's (R-GA) comm. dir. David All to Oakland Co. Sheriff Michael Bouchard (R) campaign staff. Erick writes: "David has been a successful pioneer on Capitol Hill when it comes to blogs. He has encouraged GOP congressmen to reach out. He has done so ably and has been very supportive of the conservative blogosphere. ... If he does half as good for Bouchard as he has done for Kingston, Bouchard will be very well served."
MO SEN: The '70s Were Stupid
Robert B. Bluey at Right Angle Blog picks up on some 2004 KCTV in Kansas City news stories about "a mid-1990s federal drug investigation involving Dem Claire McCaskill when she was Jackson County prosecutor" that found their way on to YouTube. Bluey questions the wisdom of "McCaskill's decision to join forces tomorrow with famous songwriter Willie Nelson, known for his marijuana-smoking and hippie image." RedState also has the videos which include this exchange:
Dave Helling: When did you stop using drugs? Did you ever use drugs? Claire McCaskill: Here's how I'm going to answer your question, and I think it's very fair: In the '70s when I was very young, I did some stupid things.Lefty bloggers rejoiced over an 8/21 Survey USA poll showing ex-Navy Sec. James Webb (D) within 3 points of Sen. George Allen (R) -- 48%-45%. Jonathan Singer at MyDD writes: "Could it be that George Allen is this cycle's Jim Bunning, a candidate who buckles under pressure and completely loses composure as the media begin to take a real look at him? Could it be that Allen's 'macaca' comment will affect his campaign as much as Bunning's teleprompter incident affected his in 2004?" Greg Sargent at TPM Cafe adds: "Don't mess with Macaca!"
Conservatives were skeptical of the news. Outside the Beltway: "I'm more than a bit skeptical over the size of the drop, although other polls are also showing Allen's lead narrowing. Despite a ridiculous amount of coverage and analysis of the "macaca" incident, though, it strikes me unlikely that the use of a word that no one had heard a week ago had this much resonance." John McIntyre at RCP Blog: "Let's just say that I remain skeptical that this race has suddenly become a 3-5 point race because of the Macaca incident 10 days ago. The Survey USA poll indicates a 40 point swing among younger voters toward Webb which the size of in some ways defies common sense. Ten, fifteen, even twenty points sure, but a 40-point swing I don't buy."
High school student Kenton Ngo notices that righty bloggers seem to dominate the podcast output in the blogosphere and attempts to rectify the situation with 9:00 on VA SEN.
Meanwhile Ryan Sager at RCP Blog took some heat for posting video of Allen's cameo in Gods and Generals as a Confederate officer. Ryan answers the common reader question "Is anyone who takes pride in their Southern heritage a racist, by my logic?" writing:
"Well, here was my main point: GEORGE ALLEN DOES NOT HAVE A SOUTHERN HERITAGE! He grew up moving around the country following his father's coaching career; and his father was from the Midwest. His obsession with cultivating a Southern, good ol' boy image and embracing all things Confederate is, therefore, rather inexplicable and a little bit disturbing."
BLOGGERS VS. BELTWAY: But Is He Worse Than Dan Gerstein?
Matt Stoller at MyDD did not like the look of Microsoft exec Darcy Burner's (D-WA) new ad: "Notice anything missing? I-R-A-Q. Notice anything else missing? Well if you saw this ad, you wouldn't know whether Darcy is a Democrat or a Republican. ... Notice anything else missing? Bush. In other words, this ad is a complete failure. Not only does it not mention the major issue in the country, Iraq, it doesn't mention our wildly unpopular President, and it doesn't mention the Republican brand, which is associated with failure in Iraq and a lack of accountability."
Natural Born Killers producer and progressive activist Jane Hamsher at firedoglake didn't like the effort either: "Somebody needs to step forward and defend the creation of this ungodly Darcy Burner ad. I know Democratic consultants are notoriously loathe to put their stuff through focus groups before launching horrendously expensive media buys, but aside from all the important political points it manages to not hit, it's an amateur night stinker with all the warmth and charm of a 1950's Soviet training film on the dangers of VD."
Later Stoller returned after some research to slam the ad's producer: "The firm is run by all around nice guy and progressive champion Steve McMahon. Aside from working for progressive powerhouses know as the tobacco and the pharmaceutical industries, McMahon made a a great impression on Markos and Jerome when they worked for Dean. I wonder what this super-advertising maven did to charm the guys who wrote Crashing the Gates."
"In my four years in politics, I haven't met a bigger [explitive], a more unsavory character than McMahon. When we met, his first words out of his mouth were literally, "If you get us more clients, we'll give you guys a percentage." No "hello", or "nice to meet you", or "Nice day, huh?" No, it was, "If you get us more clients, we'll give you guys a percentage."
DEMS: We're Gonna Need A Montage
Tracy Joan at MyDD has a slate of YouTube links of speeches from the DNC's General Session in Chicago. Speeches include: DNC Chair Howard Dean Part I and Part II, Darcy Burner (D-WA), Gov. Rod Blagojevich (D-IL) Part I and Part II, Rev. Jesse Jackson, on the 50-State Strategy, and a montage of Dem ads.
THOUGHT OF THE DAY: Tradesports And Bayes Theorem Should Get Together More Often
Harvard econ prof. Greg Mankiw uses data from Tradesports.com and combines it with Bayes Theorem to make some '08 observations.
According to the betting over at Tradesports, here's the probability that the following individuals will be President of the United States after the 2008 election:
McCain 23.5
Clinton 19.9
Giuliani 8.5
Edwards 4.7
Fortunately, Tradesports also gives us the probability that each of these individuals will be nominated by his or her party:
McCain 39.5
Clinton 41.2
Giuliani 14.6
Edwards 8.2
Now apply Bayes Theorem. By dividing the first number by the second, we can obtain for each candidate the conditional probability--the probability that the person will win the general election if nominated. Here are the results:
McCain 59.5
Clinton 48.3
Giuliani 58.2
Edwards 57.3
Note the relative performance of Hillary Clinton and John Edwards. Although Clinton is more likely to end up President than Edwards is, Edwards is more likely to win the general election conditional on being nominated. At least that's what the market says.
LEST WE FORGET: 'Cause America Loves Sequels
Nihilist In Golf Pants has suggestions for movie execs who just can't get enough of Samuel Jackson, the "Top 11 Sequels To 'Snakes On A Plane'."
11. Gay Shepherds On A Plane
10. Dick Cheney Hunting On A Plane
9. Skanks On A Plane
8. David Hasselhoff, Andy Dick, and Mel Gibson Drinking On A Plane
7. Michael Moore's: Snakes On A Diebold Voting Machine, Illegally
Disenfranchising Minority Voters
6. Water Bottles On A Plane
5. A Prairie Home Companion On A Plane
4. A Plane On Some Snakes: The Revenge
3. An Inconvenient Truth About Global Warming Forcing More And More
Snakes To Fly North On A Plane
2. Four Hours Sitting Next To A Packers Fan On A Plane
1. Amy Klobuchar starring in: Plain Janes On A Plane To Washington DC
NOTES AND ERRATA: Team Hotline Needs You!
The Hotline is looking for a Virtual Intern (three hours, five days a week) to assist in daily compilation of Blogometer updates and assist on special projects. Applicants must consider themselves regular consumers of blogs, be familiar with nationally read blogs from across the spectrum; know how to use blog search engines/aggregators (such as Technorati and Memeorandum); be able to quickly analyze and synthesize developments in the news as well as summarize ongoing blog activity with brevity, clarity and accuracy. Excellent writing and time-management skills are also a must.
This is a "virtual" position, so as long as you have always-on Internet access, Firefox, a plain text editor, and a pulse (i.e. actual presence in DC not necessary) you can apply. As with every Hotline position, we don't expect our writers to not have an opinion, we just expect them to keep it out of their work. Interested applicants should send their resumes to ccarroll@nationaljournal.com
