June 07, 2006

6/7: Netroots Breakthrough?

Memories of Howard Dean, Paul Hackett and Andrew Horn may fade quickly if lefty bloggers can keep up the momentum from their first big win 6/6 in MT SEN. Lefty blogger elation over state Senate Pres. Jon Tester's (D) victory over Aud. John Morrison (D) was cut short, however, by women's studies professor Francine Busby's (D) loss to ex-Rep. Brian Bilbray (R). Through lefty donation bundler ActBlue, bloggers raised nearly $150K for the two candidates. By 6/6, Busby pulled in almost twice as much as Tester from ActBlue. With Tester facing Sen. Conrad Burns (R) and Busby squaring off against Bilbray again, we will revisit those numbers in five months to see if they have been reversed.

It wasn't so much that Tester beat Morrison. It was how badly he beat him. Chris Bowers at MyDD: "I am still having a hard time believing what happened in Montana tonight. Not only did Jon Tester win, he demolished Morrison. Tester had only 20% in a poll back in January. Now, it looks like he is going to win by 20%." Lefty blogger interest was so high that MT progressive Left in the West crashed at least once 6/6 (but were quickly back up). Luckily fellow lefty 4 and 20 was there to pick up the slack: "I'm stunned. I thought it would be close. This thing is not close. ...This thing is a rout, folks. All the poll numbers were way off. This is ridiculous." Fellow Montanan Wulfgar's Mountain View was also ecstatic: "We did it, Montana. We did the right thing. Tomorrow, the work of beating Conrad Burns begins, but we can be proud as hell, tonight. We done good."

All the major lefty bloggers were in the mood for a victory lap:

• David Sirota: "Populist Jon Tester Scores Huge Win Against D.C. Dems & For the Rest of Us. ... His victory will likely send yet more shockwaves through the increasingly insulated and isolated Democratic Establishment in Washington. ... That Establishment has either refused to take basic, concrete positions on the key issues of the day like Iraq, or worse, has high-profile factions publicly insulting middle-class voters, such as when former Clintonites on Wall Street insulted those Democrats who are trying to reform America's sellout trade policy."
• DailyKos: "This was the perfect primary. Democratic voters in Montana got a clear choice between a populist Democrat in the mold of Gov. Schweitzer and a DLC rising star from a prominent political family.
• Swing State Project: "On Dec. 31, 2004, when Swing State Project dropped his name for the first time, few could foresee that Tester, an organic farmer from Big Sandy, could absolutely wallop one of the most popular and well-funded Democrats in the state, Auditor John Morrison, and do so without slinging mud, without creating an intra-party rift, or without a massive warchest. Jon Tester accomplished what he did today by getting people to genuinely like him, which is a damn rare thing in politics these days. And that's exactly how he's going to convince Montana voters that he should be the next Senator from Montana. The rebirth of the Democratic Party begins in Big Sky Country."

Neither the left nor right has coalesced around a single narrative to explain Bilbray's victory over Busby. Righty reax range from pleas to nationalize the immigration issue to the weakness of the Dems culture of corruption meme. The one unifying element is that the victory ought not breed complacency for 11/06. On the left most found blame for the loss outside the Busby camp including the up ticket CA Dem races as well as the nat'l cash the GOP poured into the district. Like the right, however, all eyes are on 11/06.

Blue Crab Boulevard summed up righty blogger thinking: "Regardless of how the Republicans try to spin this, they just had a squeaker in a heavily Republican district, despite throwing national resources behind Bilbray. That should be scaring their strategists." Other righties were more relieved by the win. John Podhoretz at The Corner: "This will come as a blow to Democrats and mediacrats who, as usual, got themselves all excited about taking a safe GOP seat as a harbinger of Republican disaster come November. But the question is whether Republicans are going to get overexcited by the results too, and overestimate the meaning of this victory - which may simply be a very mild indicator that the public is not, in fact, in a revolutionary mood." Captain's Quarters: "Did this signal a weakness in the overall Republican position for the midterms? The Democrats will claim it does. ...With the previous winner serving time for corruption, it would be expected that the incumbent party would have difficulty convincing the district to turn out in great numbers...and indeed, turnout remained low throughout the state for this primary election, which in this district would hurt Bilbray."

Conservative PoliPundit hoped national GOPers learned that immigration could trump the Dems favorite '06 issue:

"In yesterday's special election for California's 50th House district, two competing strategies were tested. ... On the one hand, Republican Brian Bilbray represented the position of people like me, who have been saying for years that illegal immigration could trump all other issues in 2006 and 2008. Bilbray is a former lobbyist for the Federation for American Immigration Reform, and is a virtual poster-child for the Tom Tancredo wing of the GOP. ...On the other side was Francine Busby, a pro-illegal Democrat, who hammered hard on the "Republican culture of corruption" theme. If there is one district where this might have worked, it is CA-50, where disgraced former Congressman Randy Duke Cunningham resigned, leading to this special election. About 4 percent of the vote went to a candidate who was to the right of Bilbray on immigration! ...I hope House Republicans learn from this race. If they have any political sense, they will cling to the issue of illegal immigration, and comfortably defeat the Democrats in November."

Hugh Hewitt also saw immigration as the savior: "Border security trumped "culture of corruption," and my guess is that Michael Barone will conclude, as he did after Ohio's primary, that the GOP base may not be happy, but they are smart and know the effects of a Democratic majority on the war on terror and the economy, and thus keep turning up."

Greg Pollowitz at NRO's new blog Sixers also pins the Bilbray victory on immigration but he thinks it ought to stay a local issue: "I do think the 50th shows that the House races will focus more on local races than Democratic leadership was hoping. I also don't think Busby was that strong a candidate for the district she was running in. ...One of the ads she ran and paid for actually told voters to vote for the ultra conservative on immigration in the race, on the hope it would takes votes away from Bilbray. Busby also spent considerable ad space touting her approval of John McCain's immigration plan. In the end, McCain's last minute cancellation was probably more to take ammo from Busby than it was a slap to Bilbray. ... Republicans spoke yesterday in the 50th and they picked the guy they thought could win in November. This raises some interesting questions on the McCain immigration plan. House Republicans might not need to fear a slightly stronger version of the McCain plan getting passed by the House."

Also on the right Big Lizards thought Busby's downfall exposed overall Dem weakness: "The main unifying theme of the Democrats this year has been the Republican Kulture of Korruption; but if it's going to work anywhere, it would have to be either in Cal-50 or in Tex-22 (Tom DeLay's erstwhile seat). The Democrats just lost Cal-50 when it was open; I don't think they're likely to win it in November, when Bilbray will be the incumbent. ...When all is said and done, I doubt that this election is going to turn on charges of Republican corruption - especially with the various Democrats who have suddenly found themselves on the wrong end of the law. I believe it will turn on other issues: policy issues, such as immigration, taxes, and the Iraq war."

Reaction on righty hangout RedState's comment boards was also mixed. Some were not impressed by Bilbray's win: "Does it matter who wins this district tonight? They are going to be contesting it again against each other in just 5 months with completely different turnout drivers." Others enjoyed a quick swipe at the other team: "I'd like to congratulate Dems on another valiant Moral Victory! I'll drink to a Democratic Moral Victory in November!"

A few on the left thought the negative Dem Gov primary hurt Busby. DailyKos: "Our two inept campaigns for governor may help cost us the House seat in the 50th." Democrats.com: "Phil Angelides won the Democratic primary despite a $35 million onslaught from Steve Westly, but the race was highly negative and drove Democratic turnout down - which probably hurt Francine Busby in CA-50."

Over at the left's The Huffington PostRick Jacobs blamed GOP money for the Dem setback: "I write this morning from the Busby for Congress campaign office in San Diego where it looks like Francine Busby will have gotten about seventeen points over Democratic registration here. Of over $15 million spent in this race, the Republicans put up $10 million in an otherwise "safe" Republican seat. They will not have those $10 million to spend in marginal seats. They had to defend a district that was gerrymandered for them and even then they nearly lost it." Chris Bowers at MyDD also thanked Busby for helping to drain GOP swamps but was even more optimistic on what the final vote totals mean for Nov.: " In 2004, Busby lost the CA-50 by 22.0%. Today, it looks like she will lose by around 4.5%. And that was with the NRCC spending $4.5M on the race. If Republicans want to spin losing 18 points after spending $4.5M of committee money as a good thing, go for it. No matter what the media says, no Democrat should be mistaken about this result. First, this is a huge, seismic shift in our favor that bodes extremely well for November. If we receive an 18% shift nationwide, we will win the House easily."

Under the heading "Progressive Messaging Wins: Tester, Angelides, Winograd, and Bilbray" Matt Stoller at MyDD has weighed in with his take on why Busby lost: "Brian Bilbray ran to the left of Francine Busby. I know it sounds weird, but he did. That he won on a progressive platform is biggest story of the night."

Stoller complains that Busby: "The lesson from last night should be clear. Hiding from progressives and the left will lead to Democratic losses in 2006. Running as a progressive will lead to victory. Running on 'issues' and 'competence' instead of character will lead to Democratic losses. Talking about how the 'American people' care about gas prices and not gay marriage is insulting and loser politics. Running on bullet points is wrong. Running on character is right."

IA GOV: Are Vilsack's '08 Hopes Blouin Away?

Radio Iowa connects two 6/6 IA results and sees problems ahead for Gov. Tom Vilsack (D):

"If you look at the Democratic gubernatorial primary and the Democratic race for the Ag Secretary nomination, one could conclude that Tom Vilsack holds little sway with members of his own party. Vilsack's economic development director, Mike Blouin, staged a furious rally in the ninth inning of this primary stretch but came up short. While Vilsack and Blouin repeatedly made public comments that Vilsack had not encouraged Blouin to enter the race and Vilsack never publicly endorsed Blouin in this campaign, party insiders knew Vilsack's mark on the primary ballot was in Blouin's box."

"Vilsack did endorse in the Secretary of Agriculture primary, announcing his backing for long-time aide Dusky Terry in a statehouse news conference a couple of months ago. The O'Brien upset of Terry was the big surprise of the evening. But her name is a much more generic looking name on the ballot to folks who had no idea who either one of the candidates were. Lots of generic names trump weird ones all the time in elections."

"So Tom Vilsack, potential presidential candidate, I would guess is reviewing these primary results closely as they could be clear signals of problems he'd have in an Iowa Caucus campaign."

Also in IA news, lefty Political Forecast celebrated over some righty anxiety: "Over in the First Congressional District, there was lots of drama tonight. It looks like Mike Whalen cleaned up decisively on the Republican side, which can't be pleasing for a lot of conservative bloggers from over in the 1st CD (I'm looking at you Krusty)." Krusty Konservative was in fact distressed: "I'll start by saying that I was very surprised at the results from the 1st CD Republican Primary. Here is how it played out. ...While Dix won more counties, his only large victories were in the relatively small Butler and Bremer counties. The rest were all pretty close. Whalen beat Bill Dix in Scott County by 4268 votes, and Dix simply could not recover, he needed a lot more votes out of Black Hawk County. Scott Counties turnout increased by 726 votes since 2002, Black Hawk's turn out dropped a staggering 2966 votes since 2002, costing Dix the nomination."

AL: Libertarian Instapundit gleefully announced: "Judge Roy Moore is a loser in Alabama."

CA: Righty California Campaigns points out a less than joyous not for Golden State GOPers: "For the first time in at least 20 years--there will be no official California Republican Party "Victory Party". On Arnold's orders this tradition has ended. There will be many local party parties, but none that Arnold will be at. Normally, the party would highlight a GOP incumbent during election night coverage of the Dem primary. Unlike Wilson and Deukmejian, Arnold's staff doesn't want the Governor linked to the GOP. Maybe they think it will confuse voters ... or Arnold."

NJ: Lefty Blue Jersey looks at an upset in the race for Bergen County Executive and sees bad news state Sen. Tom Kean Jr. (R) despite his primary victory: "This is bad news for the Kean Jr campaign. Caliguire and his slate (which also won) is allied with the incompetent Bergen County Republican chair Guy Talarico. Donovan was allied with Alan Marcus, who is challenging Talarico for county chair. Bergen - the most populous county - is also considered a "swing" county. Junior's campaign was probably hoping that Talarico would get the boot soon, but this victory strengthens his hand and could help keep him in power. The Kean Jr campaign can't be happy tonight."

NM: Lefty Live From Silver City reports on low turnout: "Long story short, highest turnout I saw was 18.6 percent at La Plata Middle School, precinct 15. The lowest was at Jose Barrios - precinct 12 - with 12.2 percent. On average, there was 13.5 percent turnout at the six districts. Coupled with 6 percent from early voting, and two more hours of voting, we might hit 25 percent in the county, which would be great."

SD: S.D. Watch looked at fellow SD lefty site Dem Gov online poll results. Clean Cut Kid had Dr. Jack Billion beating Dennis Wiese 74% to 26%, while S.D. Elections and Politics had Billion up 78% to 22%. Billion ended up winning 62% to 38%. Clearly another RFK Jr. stolen election expose is needed.

Jason Zengerle at The Plank was just ready to "stick a fork in Hillary Clinton's presidential aspirations" when he came across The New York Times' 6/6 article on Bill Clinton's prodigious fundraising for Dem candidates. Now he thinks Bill can save HRC's hopes: "Of course, no one ever forgets who Hillary's husband is. But, at the same time, I think people do tend to forget--or at least underestimate - the impact he's likely to have on Democratic voters in Iowa, New Hampshire, and other important primary states. Sure, those voters might think that Hillary has no prayer of winning a general election and be inclined not to vote for her in the primaries for that reason; but will they still feel so pragmatic and rational after watching Bill introduce his wife at campaign events? I wonder."

Ezra Klein shares his personal experience under the power of Bill: "But I also saw Clinton introduce Gray Davis at a 2002 rally. Davis was a slimeball who'd just polished off a grotesquely negative campaign. The room was relieved that we'd won but slightly revolted by who's banner we'd triumphed under. Then Clinton stepped up and, for 20 extraordinary minutes, wrapped Davis in a shimmering coat of ideals, dreams, hopes, and promise. I fell in love with the man. Until, that is, he began speaking. But my esteem for Clinton as an introducer was set, and I'll never underestimate the power of his speeches. Hillary is a far easier and more inspiring subject than Davis and Bill, by all reports, actually loves her. By the time he finishes, she'll be an incandescent goddess, watched by a crowd wearing those solar eclipse sunglasses, as Bill will have convinced them she's too luminescent to view with the human eye."

The blogopshere's draft Al Gore movement isn't confined to the political realm. Sports Illustrated football columnist Peter King has this non-football thought of the week: "Run, Al Gore, run."

Tech site MacVista sees fit to remind readers that MSM reports of Al Gore using Microsoft's "Powerpoint" for his global warming presentation are completely unfounded: "Apple has posted a case study on its site about how Al Gore used Keynote to run the presentation with which which he has spent the last few years travelling the world and scaring the bejeesus out of anyone willing to listen to him. ... What's particularly interesting, not to say amusing, is that in practically every press article I've read about Gore and 'An Inconvenient Truth', the presentation is described as a 'Powerpoint presentation.' Now, I know it's too much to expect the mainstream media to get technical details correct, and I also realize that the term 'Powerpoint presentation' has become a generic term that transcends the actual software used, much like 'Hoover' in the vacuum cleaner market. And 'Sellotape' in the sticky tape market. But given Gore's well-kown tech credentials, and the fact that he is a member of the Apple board, you'd think that most big media outlets would have made an extra effort to get it right, wouldn't you?"

John Hawkins of Right Wing News sat down with RNC eCampaign Director Patrick Ruffini. Highlights include: "

John Hawkins: Does the RNC have any sort of organized method for checking out what the blogosphere is doing on a daily basis?

Patrick Ruffini: Sure! Each morning we start off with a blog report that gets sent out in the morning and afternoon...that tells the entire building what bloggers are talking about that day.

John Hawkins: Related question: the right side of the blogosphere has been very critical of a lot of Republicans on Capitol Hill of late. So, do you think they're more of an asset or a hindrance to the party right now?

Patrick Ruffini: I think you could point to similar things in talk radio, but I don't think any aspect of this is necessarily hurtful to the Party. I think there are certainly going to be times where you agree and times where you disagree, and it comes and it goes. I don't necessarily view that as, "We have this huge problem on our hands." Being realistic, the political environment is tough right now, but we have to keep going and have to work to earn that support every day. John Hawkins: Oh, let me just throw this in. Why do you think the left side of the blogosphere has been so much more successful than the right at fund raising (for candidates)?

Patrick Ruffini: To the extent that's true, it's a matter of asking. You can't receive if you don't ask. One of the things the left has been good at has just been asking. When Redstate did something for Van Taylor in Texas, they were very successful.

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Posted by at June 7, 2006 12:24 PM