June 28, 2006

6/28: Deal Or No Deal?

There are conflicting rumblings from the blogosphere on the immigration front today. Pres. Bush immigration plan supporter Rep. Chris Cannon's (R-UT 03) big win over businessman John Jacob (R) looks like a setback for pro-enforcement GOPers, but at the same time Sen. Arlen Specter (R-PA) has come out with statements many pro-enforcement bloggers interpret as movement away from Bush's "amnesty" plan. Those developments, plus reax from 6/27 primaries, WH'08 news, Election'06 round-up, and a possible GOP opportunity from the New York Times bank record revelation below.

Righty Strata-Sphere described the 6/27 primary between Rep. Chris Cannon (R) and businessman John Jacob (R) as "the real first test of the immigration issue on the right." Strata-Sphere previewed Cannon's victory this way: "We have the two candidates who reflect the schism on the right. And tonight will tell which side has the upper hand (my guess is neither - which is why the far right cannot win the day in the end)." Ryan Sager at RedState briefly reported last night that Cannon beat "Tancredoite John Jacob by a healthy margin."

At deadline, none of the bigger righty pro-enforcement sites had reax up on the (RedState, PoliPundit, Right Wing News, The Blogometer is looking in your direction) but its still early. The Corner that never sleeps was all over the race though, but divided in opinion. John Derbyshireminimizes the defeat for the pro-enforcement side with: "Still, 56-44 is pretty darn good against a 5-term incumbent, by an erratic and inexperienced candidate, in a Mormon district." John Podhoretz retorts with perhaps the insult of insults at The Corner: "you're sounding like Kossacks in talking about Jacob's loss to Cannon. What a triumph! Losing an election by 12 points! Wow! Maybe next time restrictionists will lose an election only by 10 points! Then you'll really have the bad guys on the ropes!"

Back in the Beehive state Other Dicta By Steve was happy to see GOPers kiss and make up: "It was so refreshing to see Congressman Chris Cannon and John Jacob act so graciously towards one another on KSL after Jacob conceded after their rather acrimonious primary campaign. Jacob said that since the people selected Cannon, he'll back him completely even with help with fundraising (Lou Dobbs, Bay Buchanan, and Senator Tom Tancredo take that!). In return Cannon welcomed Jacob to help him fight for immigration reform, even by soliciting ideas from him. Now that the primary is over I'm looking forward to see how the Cannon Jacob tag team will do in a smackdown that isn't against each other."

The left had their eye on the race as well. The Idiotarian Savant: "So much for a powerful wave of xenophobia carrying the GOP to victory in November. If there was any deep-seated obsession among the conservative base (Utah, anyone?) on this issue, it would have shown up here." RandyMI at DailyKos was quick to celebrate low GOP turnout in the contest: "For all the talk about a lack of Democratic enthusiasm coming from Daily Kos and others, it looks like Republicans are experiencing the same thing, in what is supposed to be the hottest primary race tonight between incumbent Chris Cannon and John Jacob. ...Gosh, you mean the mighty Republicans are lazy and apathetic, too? They're not showing up for the primary that Lou Dobbs has been talking about for a week?"

SC bloggers from the left and right were thoroughly impressed with LG Andre Bauer (R) 6/27 victory over businessman Mike Campbell (R). SC native and conservative Voting Under The Influence: "Lt. Governor Andre Bauer faced the perfect storm for defeat. First, he had a scandal ... then he had a plane crash that injured him and nearly killed him. Add to those two things the fact that Carroll Campbell's son was his opponent and the former President of the United States was working against Andre Bauer. That, folks, is the perfect storm for defeat."

Crack The Bell notes that "it doesn't take a rocket scientist to see that Andre's total vote margin is nearly identical to that in Lexington." VUTI also saw Lexington County as the key for Bauer: "Whatever the reason, Andre Bauer and the Lexington County gang that delivered the 11,000 plus runoff votes and a margin bigger than Andre's victory margin statewide proved they are a political force to be reckoned with."

Bloggers supporting showed an interest in quickly rallying behind Bauer. What Now? writes: "Our Campbell endorsement, like our Quinn endorsement, was mistaken. In hindsight, Campbell never put forth any specifics about his ideas. Campbell is apparently not a conservative. Instead, he seemed moderately liberal on many issues, including school choice. Congrats to Andre. We will enthusiastically support him in the general election."

Lefty SCs urged Dems not to take Bauer lightly. LaurinLine: "I've said it before, and I'll say it again: Andre Bauer can NEVER be underestimated. He's the hardest working campaigner out there and his base is fiercely loyal. I suspect Barber's campaign would have been much happier tonight to receive news that they were, instead, facing the son of the most popular governor of the last 30 years.

Lefty blogger reax to Sen. Hillary Clinton's (D-NY) hiring of Kerry-Edwards blog outreach director Peter Daou continue along a similar theme: We love Peter, we hate Hillary. We'll watch and see what happens. Cenk Uygur at The Huffington Post describes Daou as "one of the most astute and aggressive bloggers in the country," and "Hillary as the poster child for equivocation and triangulation." Uygur concludes: " Hillary hiring Peter Daou is a little like Nixon going to China," and he sees three possible outcomes: "1. Hillary will actually listen to what Peter has to say and adjust her views and actions; 2. They will not be able to see eye to eye and Peter will be ignored and then will eventually leave the job; 3. Peter will become an apologist for Hillary's current stances on things like Iraq, which are hideous and morally repugnant." Uygur believes Daou is the best candidate to pull off outcome one: "If you asked me to pick one person to send into the teeth of the Democratic establishment to deliver this message, I couldn't name anyone better than Peter. If Hillary doesn't listen to him, then there's no hope for her and no chance for reconciliation."

Also at HuffPo under the header "Friends Don't Let Friends Work for Hillary" RJ Eskow is a little insulted by the move: "On a personal level, I wish him all the best in his new position as Hillary Clinton's netroots consultant. On a political level, I feel obliged to do my best to ensure that he doesn't succeed. While I'm happy for Peter - she's not the anti-Christ, for God's sake! - I would be insulted at the idea that the substantive differences that I (and many others) have with Hillary can be resolved through some sort of outreach program."

After the Senate Environment and Public Works Cmte condemned the AP for titling an "Scientists OK Gore's Movie for Accuracy" after only receiving replies from 19 out of 100 scientists contacted for the story, lefty bloggers attacked the release's author Marc Marono. Talking Points Memo: "Until a couple months ago, the press release writer, Marc Marono, worked for CNSnews.com where he distinguished himself by using disgraced NASA crony George Deutsch to attack NASA scientist James Hansen. ... Earlier, Marono wrote this beaut questioning whether Rep. John Murtha (D-PA) may have faked the wounds for which he received two Purple Hearts."

On the right Power Line picks up on a UPI report showing a box office drop from its record $70,333 per play to $12,334 during its third week. PL concludes: "It's no shock, I suppose, that most people aren't interested in seeing propaganda films about the weather. But the topic is an interesting and important one which we wrote about quite a few years ago, and will try to return to as time permits."

The unofficial Giuliani Blog has been tracking web ads at the Weekly Standard and think they've uncovered a clandestine Sen. John McCain (R-AZ) stalking effort: "In recent months browsing the Weekly Standard online or NRO, I have yet to come across an ad for Straight Talk America. But Rudy starts making presidential noises with an online ad buy on several conservative websites, and all of a sudden, McCain ads start popping up. ...The people advising McCain aren't dumb. They understand the serious threat Giuliani poses, and realize that Rudy's entry into the race could well be a campaign-ender for them."

Sen. John McCain (R-AZ) made his debut into the blogosphere 6/27 at the widely respected if not popularly trafficked Porkbusters. McCain invoked Ronald Reagan, laid common ground with National Review, and asserted his commitment to small gov't:

"Among the core values we Republicans share with Pres. Reagan is a passion for free market principles such as lower taxes and opposition to unnecessary government regulation; and, very importantly, belief that the government that governs best governs least. I don't think any Reagan Republican would disagree that fiscal restraint and small government are bedrock principles of conservatives. ...The editors of National Review have argued - and I agree with them - that unless Republicans curb government spending by reforming the budget process, we may lose our majorities in the House and Senate. I will go one step further and say that if Republicans do not reform our budget process, we will deserve to lose our majorities. ...I have never blogged before. But I understand readers can leave comments on each post and that these comments can be rather, ahem, blunt. So I am happy to entertain any questions, comments, or insults you might have for me at this time."

The effort already has garnered popular attention from righty traffic leader Instapundit.

Under the header "End of Q2 Fundraising Push" progressive Chris Bowers at MyDD urges readers to help lefty approved candidates through ActBlue: "This is it. These are the final days where fundraising totals matter to the overall narrative. The Q2 fundraising deadline ends at midnight on Friday. That is only 75 hours away. This is the combined netroots page, for which you have already helped raise more than $224,000, but for which this week is its most important week ever." Bowers goes on to offer brief capsules on each of the endorsed candidates including: Ned Lamont (CT), Jon Tester (MT), James Webb (VA), Jerry McNerney (CA-11), Darcy Burner (WA-08), Patrick Murphy (PA-08), Joe Sestak (PA-07), Paul Hodes (NH-02), Eric Massa (NY-29),and Linda Stender (NJ-07).

Sen. Joe Lieberman's (D-CT) office continues to alienate the blogosphere. Ben Wyl at TAPPED reports: "I just got off the phone with Lieberman's press secretary, and I can confirm that yes, she is a bit "kooky." I had called to find out simply what polling company the senator was using, and she nearly jumped down my throat. ... She terrorized me for a few minutes, asking why I had called, until I told her that I was only a lowly intern who knew nothing and oh, would she please let me go. ... Needless to say, she didn't answer my question."

Meanwhile back in CT lefty bloggers believe the AFL-CIO's endorsement of Lieberman is great news for cable co. exec. Ned Lamont (D-CT). DailyKos' founder Markos Moulitsas: "The AFL-CIO did endorse Lieberman for the primary, which means Joementum will have their support in August. This was never in doubt. What was in doubt was the November endorsement. And by withholding that at this point, Lieberman's decision to go independent has just gotten a whole lot more difficult."

Message discipline ruled the day in lefty blogland:

• Connecticut Bob: "This is a huge blow to the Senator's efforts should he decide to flee the Democrats and run as an Independent in November."
• Matt Stoller at MyDD: "The endorsement is good for Lieberman's primary chances, since he doesn't really have a base for the primary and these are real votes. It also boxes him in, though, since it means that these votes are only good if he goes the higher risk primary route."
• ConnecticutBLOG: "This is a huge blow for Lieberman because his campaign desperately wanted the support of the union until November (general election) and not August (primary). For Lieberman, taking the indy route will be riskier than if they had the support of the union until November."
• My Left Nutmeg: "Their endorsement is ONLY for the primary. When he loses, it's back to the drawing board. This is a big defeat for the DC power brokers and a moral victory for the Lamont campaign (not to mention the people of Connecticut)."
• the unofficial LamontBlog: "In a likely fatal blow to any Lieberman plans to leave the party, the AFL-CIO today refused to endorse an independent Lieberman candidacy in November, flying in the face of statements made yesterday about supporting Joe in November regardless of how he fared in the primary."

The unofficial LamontBlog also did some digging on Lieberman's media consultants after Lieberman's 6/26 attack on Lamont consultant Bill Hillsman: "But if Joe's going to go the "glass houses" route, let's take a look at the people who are doing his ads, the super-beltway-insider Glover Park Group. Their recent work includes ad campaigns for such staunchly Democratic and progressive interests as Pfizer, Smirnoff Vodka, MCI-Worldcom, and the Pharmaceutical Research and Manufacturers Association of America."

Right Wing News sat down with Sen. Rick Santorum (R-PA) 6/27. Highlights include:

John Hawkins

: What do you say to people who now know that we discovered 500 WMDS in Iraq, that Saddam had stockpiles of weapons, and yet they still say, "Aww, that's not a big deal. What does it prove?" What do you say to those people, Rick?Rick Santorum
: Well, I say that it was one of the pieces of the puzzle that we believe helps put together the threat that Saddam was to this country and the world...

John Hawkins

: Now, you're doubling Casey in fund raising and I'm hearing that you intend to run ads all the way from now until election day. If you had one concise message that you wanted to get out to people about Rick Santorum and one concise message that you had to let people know about Bob Casey, what would it be?
Rick Santorum: The concise message is that I am someone who has the courage of his convictions, who will stand up and tell you what I think, and I will deliver on what I promise.

VA SEN: Capture The Flag

Demonstrating yet again why ex-Navy sec. Jim Webb (D) is everything DailyKos' founder Markos Moulitsas could dream of in a candidate, Team Webb's Steve Jarding fiercly responded to a Sen. George Allen (R) press release claiming Webb "continues to demonstrate he is totally beholden to the liberal Washington Senators who dragged him across the line in the Democratic primary." Jarding at Webb's campaign siteBorn Fighting: "George Felix Allen Jr. and his bush-league lapdog, Dick Wadhams, have not earned the right to challenge Jim Webb's position on free speech and flag burning. Jim Webb served and fought for our flag and what it stands for, while George Felix Allen Jr. chose to cut and run. When he and his disrespectful campaign puppets attack Jim Webb they are attacking every man and woman who served."

DailyKos' founder Markos Moulitsas links to On Call's (go team!) write up of the incident and adds: "Chris LaCivita, who orchestrated the Swiftboating of John Kerry in 2004, works full-time for George Allen. So it's no surprise the Allen campaign wasted no time in attacking Webb's patriotism. Webb was awarded the Navy Cross, the Silver Star Medal, two Bronze Star Medals and two Purple Hearts while fighting in Vietnam. While Allen was playing cowboy at a dude ranch in Nevada."

Also at DailyKos commenter Al Rodgers posts pictures of Webb from his Vietnam days and Allen in Confederate garb from Gods and Generals stills under the header "Real Deal vs Cheap Fraud."

Over at NROGreg Pollowitz still holds out hope that a flag controversy could help Allen: "Hopefully this strategy works as well for Webb as it did for George Allen's past opponent, Chuck Robb. ... Attempts at a flag-burning amendment were made in 1995 and 2000, and supporters failed to get the necessary two-thirds vote in the Senate both times. In 1995, the vote was 63-36 in favor. In 2000, it was 63-37, and one of those voting against was Virginia Democrat Chuck Robb. ... Robb's opposition to the amendment cost him dearly in his re-election bid when the Allen campaign used it against him."

Righty TimChapmanBlog's 6/27 post that the House GOP would offer a resolution condemning the New York Times for publishing information regarding the administration's SWIFT bank records tracking program panned out 6/28. TCB: "This is indeed a welcome development. GOP House leadership is showing that they are in tune with the American people. Paging Bill Frist - where is the Senate companion resolution?"

Fellow righty John McIntyre at RCP Blog thinks the issue is a winner for the GOP: "The issue plays to Bush's strengths and continues to paint the picture of the President as a stalwart fighter, protecting America's safety while the left-wing press does their best to undermine as many successful anti-terror programs as possible. The Times and the far left are so completely out of touch with where the country is on national security and terrorism issues they probably thought this disclosure would hurt Bush politically. They are clueless."

Libertarian QandO links to lefty Glen Greenwald's critique of righty Times complaints but ends up barely coming to a different conclusion: "Still, that rhetoric aside, I find the intellectual points of his argument compelling ... but still incomplete. Incomplete, because, while I am predisposed to the view that government interference with the press would be a very bad thing, I also believe that there are legitimate national security secrets and that a State has a legitimate interest in keeping them secret. I believe that, with regards to those legitimate national security secrets, we have a compelling interest in preventing leaks, or, failing that, finding and prosecuting leakers. And I find the notion that a journalist has a confidentiality shield far beyond even that which Doctors or Lawyers have - one that shields them from disclosing details about a crime to which they were a witness or participant - absurd."

On the left, Arianna Huffington at The Huffington Post comes down for the Times: "Here's a change. After a year of regularly hauling the New York Times and its editors to the cyber woodshed for acting more like an arm of the Bush administration than the paper of record, I'm turning on the computer to -- wait for it -- sing the praises of Bill Keller and the gang on West 43rd. It's not exactly a newsflash that the Bushies would like to keep everything other than Valerie Plame's CV wrapped in the political equivalent of Harry Potter's invisibility cloak -- hidden from the prying eyes of the pesky public."

Also at HuffPoGreg Sargent thinks the GOP should put up or shut up on the matter: "So this is kind of strange, then. Both Snow and Dick Cheney have explicitly said that the Times has put the nation's security at risk - and presumably they think the paper continues to do so, since it won't back off its right to publish such stories. Yet by all indications the administration is unlikely to take any real action against the paper, mainly because it could be politically disastrous for Bush. Either the administration is putting politics ahead of national security and won't act aggressively against an institution it says is endangering American lives - because it would be bad for Bush. Or the administration's claim that The Times endangered national security is just the latest in a long string of lies it has told to the American people. Which is it?"

Senate Judiciary Cmte chair Arlen Specter (R-PA) said the Senate may consider adopting a timetable on immigration reform that puts border security and employment verification first on the agenda, sidelining guest worker and legalization programs for a later date. Righty Captain's Quarters writes this is another indication that the public is ahead of the pols -- and that the pols are taking notice: "Is Congress out of touch on immigration? Almost assuredly. Even Jane Harman, the California Democrat who represents a reliably liberal district, noted her surprise recently at the reaction of her constituents to the efforts at normalization. People in this country...will not support another normalization effort without finally completing the loop and getting serious about border enforcement. In this way, the American public has gotten themselves way ahead of their elected representatives."

Kausfiles writes "it sure looks like...Specter is moving rapidly, if not desperately, in the House's 'enforcement-only' direction." Specter didn't "think" the Senate would pass enforcement-only legislation. Kaus picks-up on Specter's hedge: "He doesn't 'think.' This is the pre-conference bluster period, remember. House members may think [Specter] might think different in a few months! ... How about this face-saving timetable: Border security, first, employment verification first--and Congress promises that in a few years it will debate a legalization bill? Throw the man a lifeline!"

Spot-On thinks fellow righty critiques are overplaying the Kosola scandal due ton the ineffectiveness of keeping the blogosphere at bay by hiring some on staff. SO has a suggestion for a different strategy:

"The failure of the Kosola-style net-tops approach is well-documented. After the June 6 elections, it even led me to ask if the medium was dead. But the missing links in most efforts for netroots activism are, in fact, the missing links."

"Take a look, for example, at Governor Schwarzenegger's blog. Were they to ask, I would tell them the truth-it's AWFUL. The posts are too long, it's not updated often enough, it has no synergy with the press operations and they don't have pictures. But what's really missing are the links. Both Howard Dean's Presidential campaign and Bob Hertzberg's campaign for Mayor of Los Angeles understood something that campaign bloggers seem to have overlooked-the relationship with the blogosphere is a two-way street."

"Dean and Hertzberg would link to blogs, news articles, and their own press releases like it was going out of style. In the case of Hertzberg, for example, I can say firsthand that I was more likely to write about local Los Angeles politics (and admittedly look more favorably towards Hertzberg's point-of-view) because I believed they'd link to me. And in the blogosphere link = traffic = happy. If the problem with "netroots" is that small self-selected groups of like-minded people are only "speaking" among themselves the solution for political campaigns (or businesses or even bloggers) would seem to be simple. Link."

As a slave to tight deadlines, the Blogometer has sympathy for those who find themselves in need of posting corrections. But this one (thanks Jonah Goldberg and Regret The Error) is a doozy from the UK tabloid The Sun:

"On 13 February we published an article headed "Who bum it?" reporting that two Premiership footballers and a music industry figure had a "gay romp" in which a mobile phone was used as a "gay sex toy". On 16 February we published a picture of Mr Cole and his fiancee headed 'Ashley's got a good taste in rings'. Some readers have understood that Mr Cole was one of the two Premiership players involved in the gay sex and that Choice FM DJ, Masterstepz, was the music industry figure. We are happy to make clear that Mr Cole and Masterstepz were not involved in any such activities. We apologise to them for any distress caused and we are paying them each a sum by way of damages. The Sun wishes Ashley all the best for next Saturday's World Cup quarter-final."

Posted by Conn Carroll at June 28, 2006 12:27 PM