May 24, 2006

5/24: Bloggers See, Bloggers Do

For all the vitriol that bloggers throw at Washington insiders, they sure know how to mimic their behavior. Pouring through poll numbers, handicapping races, and hosting straw polls...these sound more like the tasks of political professionals then amateur with keyboards. Who knows? Maybe some day the Markos Moulitsas and Duncan Blacks could sit down with the Stu Rothenbergs of the world and refrain from using profanity or words like "wanker" "extremist" or "cesspool."

The following poll numbers are in no way scientific, but as the 800-lbs gorilla of the blogosphere ignore these DailyKos "poll" numbers at your own risk. * denotes less than 1%.

WH '08 Dem Primary Matchup WH '08 Dem "Fantasy" Primary
Feingold 44% Gore 68%
Clark 15 Feingold 15
Warner 10 Clark 4
Edwards 8 Warner 3
Clinton 2 Edwards 2
Richardson 1 Kerry *
Biden 1 Clinton *
Kerry 1 Richardson *
Bayh * Biden *
Daschle * Bayh *
Dodd * Dodd *
Vilsack * Daschle *
Other 6 Vilsack *
No freakin' clue 4 Other *
No freakin' clue *

Dean As DNC Chair Reid As Sen Min Ldr Pelosi As Min Ldr
Approve 87% Approve 65% Approve 30%
Disapprove 9% Disapprove 26 Disapprove 56

WH '08 Dem Primary Matchup reported at 14324 Total Votes

WH '08 Dem "Fantasy" Primary reported at 10631 Total Votes

Dean As DNC Chair reported at 13193 Total Votes

Reid As Sen Min Ldr reported at 10487 Total Votes

Pelosi As Min Ldr reported at 10265 Total Votes

And Chris Bowers at MyDD ran a poll searching for the least-liked WH '08er. The results, with 1192 ballots cast:

Least Favorite WH '08er
Clinton 25%
Biden 19
Daschle 11
Feingold 9
Kerry 8
Bayh 7
Dodd 5
Vilsack 4
Warner 4
Clark 3
Edwards 3
Richardson 2

ELECTION'06: Senate Edition

Lefty blogger optimism for Dem. '06 Sen, chances has not dimmed. Chris Bowers at MyDD has his latest Sen. outlook: "The Senate is now in play. However, like last month, I predict a three to five seat gain for Democrats. ...Thirty-second analysis. The addition of Arizona to the "already competitive" tier gives Democrats a sixth potential pickup. Arizona moves up two tiers in one month with a wave of new poll results showing Kyl under 50%. In an otherwise stagnant environment, this sharp movement should offer hope to Democrats in states like Nevada, Tennessee, and Virginia. While Rhode Island threatens to slip back a tier, it still is not feasible to project Democrats capturing the Senate (yet). Democrats seem to be gradually improving their Senate chances every month."

Over at lefty hang outDailyKosmole333 looks at NV and MT: "Nevada is considered one of the Purple States ... first off we have Jack Carter, son of Nobel Laureate and former President Jimmy Carter. Jack Carter is a great candidate with integrity and a real populist message that is going to work in the West. If we want to retake the Senate, I think this race is a must win. ...Montana Senate...This is one of the most important Senate races in 2006 because the seat is currently held by one of the most corrupt Republicans in the Senate. For this reason, Montana is listed by BBC news as one of the states to watch this year.

Back at MyDD lefty Jonathan Singer looks at AZ: "Taking a look at the latest SurveyUSA 50-state poll and specifically the new list of Senators' approval ratings, Kyl sticks out as one of the most unpopular U.S. Senators today; in fact, he has the fourth highest disapproval rating of any Senator. But as bad as his numbers are today at 44 percent approval and 47 percent disapproval, Kyl's trend is even worse. Over the course of the last two months, during which time Kyl's well-funded and relatively popular Democratic challenger Jim Pederson has been on the air, Kyl's disapproval rating has shot up 11 points."

Righty Mark Kilmer at RedState has his own PA Sen. news: "Pennsylvania's Republican gubernatorial nominee Lynn Swann spoke to the Pennsylvania Press Club in Harrisburg on Monday, promising property tax relief in the first year of his Administration. In the Q&A, Swann was asked if he had chosen to endorse anyone to replace State GOP chairwoman Eileen Melvin, who quit last week after a disastrous primary performance by the State committee. Swann said he had several names under consideration, and that he, Senator Santorum, and other GOP leaders would discuss it. He did not mention Senator Specter. ...For the final question, someone had asked him if he planned a "kiss a little butt," a reference to Ed Rendell's most recent excuse for pushing and backing the legislative pay raise of 2005. The candidate smiled and replied: "John, the answer will be decidedly "NO." - I'll let all the bending over and kissing in Ed's administration."

Plenty of lefty blogger energy is being devoted to the House. Matt Stoller at MyDD plugs businesswoman Darcy Burner's challenge to Rep. Dave Reichart (R-WA): "The district is trending blue, and Burner is incredibly smart and a natural campaigner. ...She is also young (35) and web-savvy, having worked at Microsoft, and these traits will serve her well in a House that is desperately in need of new blood. She has promised, for instance, to post on her Congressional web site a list of all meetings with lobbyists by her or any staff member, which is a fundamentally new approach to governance."

Also at MyDDThe Southern Dem looks at NC-8: "Respected polling firm, Anzalone Liszt Research, has released a new poll...and it shows Larry Kissell with tremendous momentum pulling away from Republican incumbent Robin Hayes. ...The number that first jumps out is the informed vote where Kissell leads Hayes by 7 points. (49% Kissell/42% Hayes). ...A campaign insider pointed out that this is a district that went for Bush in 2004 by 54%. These are not Kerry Democrats, so the presidential race actually helped Hayes at the polls. There is no national or state-wide race that will bring voters out who only vote top of the ticket. This is going to hurt Hayes and that's one more strike against him."

Over at DailyKos mole333 looks at some NV races: "There are also two House races in Nevada and here is where I think we have a shot, albeit a long shot, at Sweeping Nevada. One of these House races, NV-3, is a genuinely close race, one of the 10 House seats the Republicans most fear losing. ...But there is one more race worth considering: NV-2. This is not seen as a close race, BUT...it is an open seat this year and we all know that open seats are opportunities NOT TO BE MISSED."

NM is also looked at: "First there is the NM-1 House race. The Republican incumbent, Heather Wilson has taken more money from Exxon/Mobil's PAC than any other New Mexico politician - $5,000 already in this cycle, and $27,000 since 2000. She took $4,000 from Halliburton's PAC in the 2004 cycle. She is the EPITOME of what I call a corrupt Halliburton Republican. The Democratic opponent is two-term state Attorney General Patricia Madrid. An extraordinarily well-qualified candidate, Madrid seems poised to be a leading Democrat from the West."

Of course it wouldn't be lefty blogger land with out some Dem infighting. Matt StollerMyDD : "Al Wynnis in a 77% Democratic performing district in Maryland, a very safe seat in the fourth district. Al Wynn is also one of the Verizon 5 who screwed us on net neutrality in his subcommittee vote after getting $19,000 from telecom interests. But there's lots to dislike about Wynn. Iraq. The bankruptcy bill. The estate tax. The energy bill. Wynn consistently sells out his constituents because he's never challenge Enter Donna Edwards, a very well-respected public servant and current executive director of the Arca Foundation. She's one of the serious good guys."

If lefty bloggers have to choose between their "culture of corruption" mantra and the career of a Dem. congressman from Hurricane Katrina devastated New Orleans, the choice is simple: Rep. William Jeffesron (D-LA) is gonna have to rescue himself. At DailyKosVirginiaDem writes: "I've noticed that the Democratic campaign effort for 2006 is attempting to run against a Republican "culture of corruption" this year. ...However, a certain Democratic congressman is undermining this effort. ... My plea is obvious. Tell Mr. Jefferson to resign immediately." Kos himself dropped in for an editorial comment: "I agree wholeheartedly. No double standards. Corruption is corruption, no matter where it may arise -- kos." Atrios concurs: "Jefferson is certainly entitled to his legal defense, and he's also certainly entitled to defend himself in the court of public opinion, but since the former is preventing him from doing the latter I agree with Francine Busby that it's time for him to step down.

Josh Marshall sub Matthew Yglesias at Talking Points Memo doesn't see how Jefferson's troubles slow down Dem corruption-campaign at all: "Obviously, we are seeing what everyone already knew - that the Donkeys aren't pure as virgin snow. Certainly, Jefferson been up to no good and richly deserves punishment. But there's no serious comparison here. ...Jefferson was a corrupt freelancer...a more-or-less random member of congress abusing his office for personal gain. Compare this to the case of Tom DeLay, the key mover-and-shaker in the Republican caucus for many years and an important one for years before that. His muck-worthy activities not only accrued to a more significant player, but also bore a direct relationship to the creation and sustenance of the GOP machine."

Speaker Denny Hastert subsequent protests over the FBI's search of Jefferson's office created yet another reason for righty bloggers to bash GOP leadership. Riehl World View: "That's it. I've had enough. My sense of Hastert is that he knows less about the Constitution than he does the back of the menu at a Taco Bell. ...If some of the blogging Repologists want to keep on about moderation and working together to sort it out, they can stuff it. We should turn the whole place over and enact term limits. I've had enough of this circus on both sides of the aisle." Unfreezing: "Please inform the Republican leadership that I've listened carefully to their comments about Mr. Jefferson and the searching of his office. I have thought about what they have said and decided to change my party affiliation. I no longer wish to be counted as a republican. ...I no longer know what this party stands for except apparently the self-protection of its own elected officials." Macsmind: "Members of Congress, on both sides of the isle need to back off the "Thou treadest on me?" crap. Again, this has nothing to do with the separation of powers but about suspected criminal activity by a representative of the people, if he did wrong we DEMAND he be brought to justice. Period."

Lawyer-bloggers from right and left thought Hastert's legal objections had little merit:

• TalkLeft: "In Rep. Jefferson's case, however, "separation of powers" just won't cut it if the affidavit for the search warrant shows probable cause to believe that evidence would be found in his office. The same would apply to the President, the Vice President, their staffs, and the judiciary: If there is probable cause linking the place to be searched with an alleged crime, the search has the imprimatur of the law, is presumptively valid under the Fourth Amendment, and that is all that will be required to defeat a separation of powers claim."
• Orin Kerr: "I don't think the Fourth Amendment provides such an argument. If the government can execute a warrant at a newspaper, or at a lawyer's office, why not a Congressional office? Of course, Congress could pass a law prohibiting searches of Congressional offices, Cf. The Privacy Protection Act, but they haven't done so. A more likely theory would be the Speech and Debate clause, Art. I, 6, cl. 1. ... Given that executing a search warrant involves neither an arrest nor questioning, it would seem to me that the Clause isn't applicable. Further, Gravel v. United States, 408 U.S. 606, 626-27 (1972), seems to suggest that Congress is not generally exempt from criminal process under the Clause. ... At the same time, this is only a snippet, and it's hard to reach a more definitive conclusion without spending more time looking through the cases. For a good summary of the law, this page at Findlaw is a good start."
• Instapundit: "The separation of powers argument seems to be pretty weak to me: The actual scope of Congressional immunity under the speech and debate clause is quite narrow (narrower, oddly, than the judically-created immunities enjoyed by judges and prosecutors) and certainly doesn't include immunity from search in a bribery case. At any rate, members of Congress who are offended by an unannounced late-night raid on an office might profitably be asked what they think about late-night unannounced raids on private homes, which happen all the time as part of the Congressionally-mandated War on Drugs."

New School President Bob Kerrey took to The Huffington Post to defend his students, Sen. John McCain (R-AZ), and himself:

...an impressive number of my students and faculty disagreed with my decision and urged me to withdraw the invitation. Their objections were largely centered on an assertion that Senator McCain does not represent the values of The New School. After listening to these objections and considering them respectfully, I decided that I would not withdraw my invitation to Senator McCain, in part, because I believe he does represent some of the most important values of The New School. ...That said, I now speak in defense of the behavior of my students. ...Though many in the audience -- including Senator McCain and I -- were offended by the heckling, at no time were we in danger of not being able to proceed. ...More importantly -- and also lost in the charges and counter-charges -- is this fact: student protests are a necessary and essential part of democratic free expression. ... Further, I hope he comes to understand that among the reasons we admire and respect him is that he sometimes still confronts the overly-circumspect and sluggish protocols of the U.S. Senate to fight against government waste and corruption and to advance laws that will make us feel proud, rather than ashamed. I know from personal experience that many who have found themselves on the opposing side of his arguments have, at times, wondered about the absence of civility and courtesy in his tactics when he is passionately and doggedly working for what he believes. ... Those of us who respect the Senator so much understand that that is one of the reasons John McCain is so effective. I contend that our protesting students deserve the same credit."

McCain made some blogosphere friends on his own with his 5/22 speech endorsing nuclear power. Righty Blue Crab Boulevard: "I'm not a fan of McCain, as anybody who's been reading here for any length of time knows. But the headline of this article is something I happen to believe in. We need more nuclear energy in this country. I worked in that field for many years. I know how safe those plants are." Charleston Daily Mail editorialist Don Surber: "In calling for more nukes, John McCain may have stumbled upon the issue that will power him to the presidency. America's need for energy independence is the only way to shorten this war on terrorism. Oil tends to flow to the dictators -- Nigeria, Saudi Arabia, Venezeula, Iraq, Iran -- who use their riches to entrench themselves. It cannot continue."

Lefty Marty Kaplan at The Huffington Post suggests an Al Gore/Sen. Russ Feingold (D-WI) ticket may be the best option for Dems but also takes the time to list some Gore negatives including:

• The Hamlet thing. (Cuomo had this, too.) Gore says he doesn't want to run, but at a certain point, the rules of the nominating system can't create a draft. Saying no also creates a walking-back-the-cat problem. If we shouldn't have believed you then, why should we believe you now?
• The speech in Saudi Arabia criticizing US anti-Arab abuse (lousy location choice for message)
• The 2000 problem. He didn't campaign hard or well enough. He ran away from Clinton. He threw in the towel too soon.
• The residue of 2000's negatives: "Buddhist Temple." "He says he invented the Internet." The convention kiss.
• Tipper's rock lyrics campaign.
• Backstage mischief by "prominent Democrats" with unparalleled access to the press and to political money.
• The inevitable liberal/left/commie/pinko/ozone attack.

Besides Kaplan's apprehensions The Huffington Post Gore-lovefest continued unabated. Lefty Richard Greene writes: "It's taken a "dark night of the soul" experience in 2000 and several years abstinence from toxic polls and consultants, but Al Gore, the most unlikely of heroes, is beginning to show politicians and America a different kind of "Inconvenient Truth" and that is that money and make overs and talking points and audience research do not make politics or politicians or America better. ...Al Gore, left to his own devices, left only to his own very deep and honest passion, has had a spiritual and political transformation that may, indeed, make Americans want to elect him...again."

Lefty bloggers were quick to cry foul when National Center for Policy Analysis senior fellow Sterling Burnett compared Gore's film to Nazi propaganda. Think Progress: "ExxonMobil doesn't have a substantive answer to Gore's movie, so it bankrolls people like Burnett to smear Gore personally." The Carpetbagger Report: "At a certain level, it seems Fox News is intent on offering Al Gore's An Inconvenient Truth as much publicity as the network can muster. For a movie with an initial run of a fun hundred theaters, FNC is acting awfully nervous." AMERICAblog: "Exxon-financed pundit compares Gore to Goebbels. ...Interesting that ExxonMobil seems happy to write off the 49% of the country who voted for Gore."

Most righties went the humor route instead of calling Gore a Nazi. ShopFloor.org: "The film is the action version of a slide show that Gore has done some 1,000 times around the country. ...Gore repeats like a mantra that there is now scientific consensus about the so-called problem. And he has lots of friends in the press who lazily repeat the argument. What the hey -- it's a heckuva lot easier than making the case. And -- they voted for him, so they trust him, right? ...In any event, the film has rolled out to rave reviews by noted climatologists Sharon Stone and Garry Shandling."

The left's TAPPED, Garance Franke-Ruta is 100% correct when she observes, "There's a lot of blogosphere outrage, including here at TAPPED, about this morning's New York Timesstory on Hillary Clinton's marriage." But she goes on to take a minority opinion: "I'm not so sure there should be. This story answers an essential question for Hillary-watchers, and knocks down one of the major raps against her as a candidate, the allegation that she is a coldly calculating person so ambitious she stayed in a sham marriage just so she could run for President one day. So, as much as she and her staff and her supporters may hate this story, I think they should be grateful for it."

Not that Dem primary voters spend much time at RedState but California Yankee puts HRC's 5/23 energy speech under a header "Hillary Runs Toward President Bush's Energy Policy" and writes: "After voting against nationwide use of ethanol in gasoline last year, Senator Clinton today echoed President Bush's advanced energy initiative, calling for tax credits, private investment and new research in order to cut the consumption of foreign oil."

Kos describes Sen. Chris Dodd's (D-CT) 5/22 pres. announcement as "the day's most underwhelming bit of news." Kos goes on to mention: " This is the guy who gave the nomination speech for Joe Lieberman at the Connecticut Democratic Party convention this past weekend. If he comes by your part of the country, feel free to ask him about that."

Compared to all the fuss lefty bloggers made over the NSA surveillance story when it broke, Gen. Michael Hayden's passage through the Sen. Int. Cmte. drew very little lefty response. TalkLeft: "No surprise here, but General Michael Hayden was approved by the House Intelligence Committee today as CIA Director and now will go to the full Senate for a confirmation vote. ...Voting against him were three Democrats, Russ Feingold, Ron Wyden and Evan Bayh." Lefty Booman Tribune: "To their eternal credit, Ron Wyden (D-OR) and Russ Feingold both voted no. ...So many pixels have been spilled on the unacceptability of this nominee, based on his involvement in the wiretapping scandal, that I hardly need to add mine. Suffice it to say, however, that if the Dems can retake either chamber of Congress and actually press for investigations of the illegal wiretapping, the nomination of a known defiler of the Constitution by his equally Constitutionally-challenged superior will go down as one of the watermarks of this administration's imperial hubris."

Righties were in full gloat mode. Captain's Quarters: "Surprisingly, the Democrats never mounted any kind of coordinated attack on Hayden like they did with Samuel Alito or John Bolton. After fueling the outrage of their base by painting Hayden as a yes-man for Donald Rumsfeld -- an absurd characterization and a complete misreading of the dynamic in play with Hayden's nomination -- the hearing itself turned out to be a complete fizzle. ...The Democrats wisely retreated, except of course for Feingold. He will win the lunatic Left as his power base -- and will wind up doing as well as Howard Dean did when the primaries roll around in less than twenty months."

Little buzz in the national blogosphere on the ID and AR 5/23 primaries. But local bloggers did chime in.

In ID, righty Adam's Blog thinks turnout numbers are good news for the GOP, while lefties Red State Rebels and 43d State Blues both live-blogged the evening.

In AR the focus was on faulty election machines. Lynch at Large, Arkansas Tonight, and Arkansas Blog all complained.

Pacified at DailyKos proudly outlines how Rep. Marilyn Musgrave (R-CO) ended up having to distance herself from the KKK after introducing a bill to make home schooling easier. Pacified begins: "This diary is a case study of the Vast Left Wing Conspiracy at work, beginning Thursday of last week surrounding Republican Congresswoman Marilyn Musgrave (CO-04) and the KKK members who agree with her." Pacified then goes through a play-by=play that ends with The Hill picking up on the internet chatter. Pacified concludes: "This still developing story is real life proof of how the Netroots is changing politics, a concrete instance of the developing liberal blogosphere's power and its ability to percolate and amplify stories. ...It can also serve as a model of the 50 State Strategy Online of sort: Bloggers who focus on only local politics (as Muskrat Hunt follows only Marilyn Musgrave) are able to draw attention to a story, which eventually caught the eye of the national media. ...Most importantly, the political mudslinging is being attributed to "liberal political bloggers", not Angie Paccione, the Democratic challenger in Colorado's 4th District."

LEST WE FORGET: Culture Of Corruption, Arkansas Edition

Did you not already hear about the burgeoning sex-for-water scandal? The Smoking Gun fills us in with the Arrest Warrant Affidavit for Waldron, AR mayor Troy Anderson (D): "An Arkansas mayor has been charged with soliciting sex from two women in exchange for keeping their water on in the face of delinquent utility bills. ...According to investigators, one woman had sex with Anderson, while the second woman rebuffed his offer (and recorded Anderson's sleazy come-on for police)."

Posted by Conn Carroll at May 24, 2006 12:34 PM