February 03, 2006

2/3: The Ohio Compromise

All told, the right-blogosphere is taking the election of Maj. Leader John Boehner pretty well. Rep. John Shadegg (R-AZ) was the only candidate with the expressed support of any bloggers, but as we noted last week, the most important thing to those who got involved was that the leader not be ex-acting Maj. Leader/again-Whip Roy Blunt. The feeling is not unanimous, though, and Boehner has his detractors. Among the Dem-leaning bloggers who weighed in, the response is split between those who had been hoping for the more controversial Blunt and those who think Boehner is bad enough.

We won't be revisiting the controversy about the Muhammad cartoons which appeared in the Danish paper Jyllands-Posten, but for anyone who is not reading the political blogs already, know this: it's probably the biggest subject of conversation out there right now. All of the top searches on Technorati this a.m. are related to it in one way or another. As usual, Memeorandum is the best place to catch up on that.

Elsewhere in today's edition: WH'08 straw polls show Sen. Russ Feingold (D-WI) with solid (and increasing) support from the netroots, the hard core Plamegate kremlinologists consider the case of the missing e-mails, ex-Rep. Ciro Rodriguez (D-TX) gets a big boost from lefty bloggers and their readers, and more. Not much more, just more.

HOUSE GOP LEADERSHIP: The Boehner Of Blunt's Existence

RedState's Mike Krempasky congratulates Maj. Leader Boehner, adding: "We should add that in our view -- there is NO way Mr. Boehner would have won without Mr. Shadegg's entry into the race. For that -- Republicans ought to take note: conservatives matter more than you thought, and John Shadegg along with Mike Pence have just become perhaps the two most important Members of the House outside of leadership. N.Z. Bear agreed, arguing that Shadegg's "candidacy reminded his fellow Representatives that real reform, and real change in the leadership, was not simply the right thing to do, but utterly necessary to ensure the success of the GOP in November." Like Bear and Krempasky, center-right Univ. of TN law prof Glenn Reynolds had supported Shadegg. He's a bit more skeptical, calling Boehner the "Diet Coke of reform. One calorie -- not reformist enough!"

Libertarian Radley Balko, who shouldn't necessarily be construed as a right-leaner, isn't impressed: "John Shadegg, who'd probably have injected the leadership with at least a bit of principle, came in last. DeLay, Rostenkowski, Foley, Boehner. Business. As. Usual." But Robert George argues otherwise, noting the "bad blood" between Boehner and Rep. Tom DeLay going back to the "ill-fated coup attempt" on then-Speaker Newt Gingrich in '97. Writes George, "given the history between DeLay and Boehner, picking the latter to replace the former sends a pretty strong message. ... Boehner's comeback must be especially sweet considering that Blunt was also a long-time DeLay ally."

One conservative who is not the least bit pleased with Boehner's election is immigration hawk PoliPundit, who writes: "By electing Boehner, the Republican party has installed in leadership positions two powerful politicians" -- Bush is the other -- "who appear committed to selling out our country to their big-money paymasters. Both these powerful Republicans favor massive levels of illegal immigration that would destroy America's borders, and its integrity and culture as a nation."

For some GOP-leaning bloggers who supported Shadegg, Blunt's loss is sweet -- QandO's McQ, recalling his co-blogger's verbal barb-trading with Blunt's spokesperson (see 1/26 Blogometer), observes, "the good news is, Dale doesn't have to lick fireants off a stick." Another RedStater adds Blunt's name to the list of people who lost their place on account of a blog revolt -- ex-Senate Maj. Leader Trent Lott, ex-"Evening News" anchor Dan Rather, ex-SCOTUS nominee Harriet Miers. "And now" ex-acting Maj. Leader Roy Blunt. Justin Hart posts an exclusive photo of Boehner speaking from inside the GOP conf. meeting.

Some Dem-leaning bloggers are up-front about Boehner's election being a disappointment -- Michael Stickings: "As one who supports the Democrats, I wish Blunt had won, as it would have been much easier to paint him as DeLay II." At TNR's The Plank, Michael Crowley quotes a Dem Hill staffer concerned because Blunt would have been too status quo, and Shadegg would have been "killed their moderates," while Boehner is "frankly a better legislator" than the others. Crowley also quotes an ex-Hill staffer: "The good news is that Blunt will keep his whip job and he will be trying to sabotage Boehner for the rest of the year. They will make Steny and Nancy look like good friends."

Markos Moulitsas warns fellow Dems to be on guard: "Get ready for the GOP spin, how Boehner signals some sort of clean break from the past." He quotes a New York Times story which signals just that. A few on the right pick up on that same Times story, which describes Boehner's victory as a surprise. Poli sci prof Steven Taylor comments: "Yes, Blunt was the favorite, but it never seemed to me that he was the prohibitive favorite. Now, if Shadegg had won, that would have been a 'surprise election.'"

But others are more confident that he can be tied to corruption concerns -- The Next Hurrah reminds readers that Boehner once handed out tobacco industry checks to members on the House floor, and also highlights the OH GOP's corruption problems. Booman Tribune posts excerpts from a '96 Cleveland Plain Dealer op-ed titled "Boehner Raises Hypocrisy to an Art Form." TalkLeft and Shakespeare's Sister look at Boehner's vote record/ratings, and don't like it one bit.

One amusing side story is that on the 1st ballot there were more votes than there were voting members. BradBlog and Raw Story analogize it to the voting irregularities in WH'04, loving the irony even more that Boehner and that controversy are both OH-based. A reader at Talking Points Memo suggests: "Shouldn't Jimmy Carter have monitored the GOP vote?" However, as Hotline On Call noted at the time the discrepancy owed in part to the initially uncounted vote of PR Del. Luis Fortuno. Part of the confusion also derived from the absence of Rep. Gary Miller (R-CA).

And though we probably don't have to mention it, yes, plenty of blogs from across the spectrum misinterpreted the pronunciation of Boehner's name. All of them were juvenile, and most were groaners, but we sort of liked this from Wonkette: "Boehner will be following DeLay. Um, isn't that kind of like putting the cart before the horse?"

PLAMEGATE: Future Tension

Murray Waas has produced another report on the series of events leading up to the disclosure of ex-CIA operative Valerie Plame's name to Bob Novak. After reading it, Jeralyn Merritt thinks that VP Cheney is in more trouble than previously thought. Think Progress quotes Cheney on "Meet the Press" in 9/03 compared to Waas' piece, arguing that Cheney "feigned ignorance" about the CIA having already told him the yellowcake reports were likely false.

The missing e-mails we noted on 2/2 specifically came from Cheney's office, and this sets off plenty of speculation. In a post for Crooks and Liars, Hullabaloo's Digby writes: "These missing Cheney e-mails are very intriguing. This is particularly so because we went though a similar event during the Clinton administration and the Republicans went completely apeshit over it." Conservative Jon Henke: "18 megabytes of silence? ... I'm going to go out on a limb and predict that, before Bush reaches the end of his term, Dick Cheney will leave office. And we will be better off for it." On the other hand, leading conservative Plameologist Tom Maguire keeps an open mind about the missing e-mails, noting that "for all you or I know, the White House has a double-secret archive for national-security emails, and Fitzgerald is simply hinting to Libby's attorneys that to access these emails they have to ask the archivists nicely with the proper buzz-phrase that pays. "

At his own blog, Whatever Already, Waas is already moving on to another question: "Did President Bush personally receive information during his morning intelligence briefings about Joe Wilson's mission to Niger? Court filings in the CIA leak case appear to indicate that that may well might have been the case. ... Expect the issue of the PDBs to be a point of contention this morning during Libby's appearance in federal court today regarding discovery issues between the prosecution and defense."

WHITE HOUSE '08: Lookin' So Feingold

With the latest Daily Kos straw poll concluded, Moulitsas posts a recap of the poll results since he launched it in 6/05, which we reproduce below:

                  Jan  Nov  Sep  Aug  Jul  Jun

Feingold           30   19   19   16   10   10
Clark              22   26   34   35   34   26
Warner             12   14    4    3    5    5
Edwards             8   12   10    7    7    8
No Freakin' Clue    6    6    6    9   13   17
Other               6    2    3    4    4    7
H. Clinton          3    6    8    9   10   10
Kerry               3    2    2    1    2    2
Richardson          3    5    3    4    4    4
Bayh                1    1    1    1    2    2
Biden               1    1    3    3    3    3
Vilsack             0    0    0    0    0    0

He points out that John Kerry's numbers remain quite low despite the filibuster effort, noting that wooing the netroots requires more than "a one-off." He concludes: "I still think Warner is the person to watch, with Feingold a potential top-tier competitor for the 'anti-Hillary' slot as he seemingly bleeds Clark's support away."

At MyDD, Chris Bowers announces the latest in their series of straw polls. Like the dKos poll, the leaders of the current and past polls are Feingold, ret. Gen. Wesley Clark, ex-VA Gov. Mark Warner and ex-NC Sen. John Edwards. In fact, the principle difference is that Feingold's lead is even bigger -- about 37% in the latest poll.

Worth noting: one of the top "Recommended Diaries" at dKos since noon 2/2 is Feingold's "Pre-1776 Mentality," his response to Bush's frequent refrain that Dems have a pre-9/11 mindset. His entry has picked up 600+ comments.

MIDTERMS: Ciro Hour

On 2/2, ex-Rep. Ciro Rodriguez (D-TX) posted a diary to Daily Kos soliciting help for his bid against GOP-friendly Rep. Henry Cuellar (D-TX), who has the endorsement of the Club for Growth. In the 1st comment below Rodriguez's post, a staffer has posted a link to Rodriguez's ActBlue donation page. Meanwhile, Atrios posted a photo of Bush getting chummy with Cuellar, and suggested readers donate to Rodriguez as well. San Antonio Express-News reports that in the hours afterward, Rodriguez racked up $12K in donations from 263 online donations. When we last checked this a.m., the number was closer to $15.9K from 370+ contributors. Inspired by the attention, OR-based Jane Hamsher opens an account to raise funds for Rodriguez as well.

TX-based Charles Kuffner, on the Cuellar-Bush picture's influence: "Guess it took this picture for the big boys to notice the CD28 primary." At Swing State Project, DavidNYC considers whether Cuellar could lose the primary, switch parties and run as a GOPer in the general. Based on his reading of TX election law, he's pretty sure the answer is no. Vichy Democrats, which aims to oust conservative Dems: "[W] Without even taking a head count, I'm naming him our No. 1 Vichy in the House of Representatives."

At Reason's Hit and Run, Tim Cavanaugh predicts: "The Republican Party will retain control of both houses of Congress in the 2006 midterm elections." He counts among his reasons that Bush has beaten the odds before, Dems already blew the chance to ride an "anti-Bush groundswell" in '04, and Dems have no figure comparable to Newt Gingrich. Vodkapundit's Stephen Green notes that he'd made the same prediction on 1/26, writing: "Year Six of any administration is usually poison for the party. If we had something like a loyal opposition in this country, that would be as true in 2006 as it was in 1986. But it isn't. And it won't be. Mark my words."

On the other hand, DLCer Marshall Wittmann suggests that the GOP would be in better position if they do lose the House in '06. Resistant to reform, it has been an "albatross" for them, and Dems might well overreach and impeach Bush. He adds: "Of course, no Republican would publicly approve of such a scenario. But, politics works in mysterious ways. And the worse, may be better for the GOP, at least in the short run."

MISCELLANY: Blogs And Ends

• The Tom Toles cartoon controversy seems to have come to a calm conclusion, as the Post made understanding noises but indicated it had no plans to rein in their cartoonist. As for the JCS, liberal No More Mr. Nice Blog writes, "it may be that they're just defending their boss, in the guise of defending wounded soldiers. They know -- any idiot who's seen this cartoon knows -- that the real target" is Defense Sec. Donald Rumsfeld. Drawing comparison to the Jyllands-Posten Muhammad, Democracy Project asks in a header: "Will The Post Republish The Danish Cartoons?"
• On 2/1, NAACP chair Julian Bond said in a Fayetteville State (NC) speech on 2/1, among other things: "The Republican Party would have the American flag and the swastika flying side by side." It's a huge deal in the conservative blogosphere, but we couldn't find any mentions of it on liberal blogs. Sister Toldjah: "Gee -- and to think there were actually people who raised the roof on the fact that the President didn't want to meet with the NAACP?" Rightwinged notes similar comments Bond has made previously. Dafydd ab Hugh argues that Dems need to perpetuate the idea that GOPers are KKKers lest they lose even a tiny bit of black support, and consign themselves to political irrelevance"; to do otherwise "would be political suicide."
• The Slate-sponsored debate between Will Saletan and Katha Pollitt has sparked an interesting intra-left debate about the politics of abortion. Sam Rosenfeld, Scott Lemieux and Duncan Black all side with Pollitt over Saletan in holding that the typical "abortion is morally wrong but should be legal" is at best incoherent and at worst bad politics.
• A few weeks back, AMERICAblog's John Aravosis noticed a news story about how cell phone records are available for purchase, and made an issue of it once the report slid into oblivion, even purchasing ret. Gen. Wesley Clark's records to prove the point (1/9 and 1/13 Blogometers). Now points out a report that the FCC and FTC are moving to curb. Aravosis is pleased with the development, but upset that Dems didn't stake out the issue when they had the chance: "Why in God's name aren't the Democrats the ones holding press conferences and public meetings on this issue? Are they actually that afraid of taking credit for something when it's handed to them? I gave this to the Dems before I even wrote about it -- they weren't interested. And we wonder why we don't ever win."
• Diarists at MyDD and Daily Kos try to call attention to the 2/1 budget bill after it passed. The bill itself, like much of the legis. business in the House and Senate, went almost entirely unremarked-upon on either the liberal or conservative sides of the blogosphere.
• Also at MyDD, Bowers has finished rolling out the results of a survey they commissioned, conducted by pollster Joel Wright.
• As one can see at Instapundit today, the RNC has bought ads with Pajamas Media; the tower ad links to a page where one can make a donation.

THOUGHT OF THE DAY: "Open" Call

At OxBlog, enter-right David Adesnik considers the lefty watchdog sites targeting Tim Russert and Chris Matthews, appropriately named Open Letter to Tim Russert and Open Letter to Chris Matthews: "Relatively speaking, Russert isn't all that confrontational. If you try hard, you can accuse him of going soft on guests from either side of the political spectrum. But Chris Matthews? Over the past few months, I've listened to dozens and dozens of Hardball podcasts. ... Let's just say the man doesn't hide his opinions very well. The problem though, is that on those occasions when Matthews actually does give a liberal a hard time, he tends to borrow enough GOP buzzwords to make him sound like he may actually believe what he's saying."

He continues: Anyhow, this kind of debate about the vice and virtue of Matthews and Russert won't pivot on contending interpretations of ambiguous remarks ... If one side is going to win, it will have to systematically catalogue one-sided statements and demonstrate that Matthews or Russert consistently lean one way. The problem is, critics from both sides tend to pick out the exchanges they are unhappy with and ignore all those that might provoke the other side of the political spectrum. In fact, how often do media critics (myself included) even notice those exchanges to which the other side might object?"

LEST WE FORGET: Where We're Going, We Don't Need Roads

Here at the Blogometer, we're quite the fan of the nascent genre of recut movie trailers. We're also quite the fan of "Back to the Future" -- at least the 1st installment. At least for us, "Brokeback to the Future" is now the greatest recut movie trailer that we know of.

Posted by at February 3, 2006 01:02 PM