December 15, 2005

12/15: Vote Or Die

The election in Iraq leads most blogs this a.m. Optimists tend to be found on the right, and pessimists lean left. But that isn't always the case. Most expect the election itself to be a success in terms of voter participation -- it's what comes after that has even some war supporters concerned. Otherwise, Plamegate chugs along with the intriguing assertion by Bob Novak that Pres. Bush knows exactly who his source is, some GOPers are irritated that Gov. Mitt Romney (R-MA) is (now officially) not seeking re-election; and the Washington Post's Dan Froomkin isn't out of the spotlight just yet -- nor is Post political editor John Harris. We also present our latest Blogger Spotlight, which also our last of the year, in this penultimate edition of the Blogometer for '05.

IRAQ: Pessimistic Optimism?

Starting at 1:00 a.m. EST, Pajamas Media is providing on-the-ground reporting from Iraqi polling sites. American Bill Roggio is covering the election from Barwanna. PoliBlog reproduces a few useful maps and charts.

Mohammed from Iraq the Model writes: "I see most of Iraqis making their choices by comparing the names at the top of the lists while there's an educated minority who look at lists as a whole but either way it is all fine, we're still carrying much of the totalitarian heritage from the past decades. Here we have a proverb that says 'health comes in steps' and the thousand mile journey starts with a step, you know."

In a front-paged diary at RedState, Iraqi Hassan Kharrufa evaluates some of the top parties. Hassan himself prefers secular parties, but expects the Shia-backed Unified Iraqi Coalition will win: "It will rule everything, and I have a feeling Iraq will be like a second Iran then. Needless to say, I am not giving them my votes."

Iraq pessimist Juan Cole: "The only way in which these elections may lead to a US withdrawal is that they will ensconce parliamentarians who want the US out on a short timetable. Virtually all the Sunnis who come in will push for that result ... and so [will] the members of the Sadr Movement, now a key component of the Shiite religious United Iraqi Alliance. That is, these elections lead to a US withdrawal on terms unfavorable to the Bush administration. Nor is there much hope that a parliament that kicked the US out could turn around and restore order in the country."

Ex-CIA agent Larry Johnson, at TPM Cafe: "With voting already underway in Iraq we should harbor no illusion about the ultimate outcome -- the Iraqi shias with the closest ties to Iran will secure the largest share of the votes." The Mahablog's Barbara O'Brien writes, "getting the constitution right was less important to the Bushies than meeting that milestone. They wanted that talking point. A missed deadline would certainly have turned into a talking point for the Dems leading up to our November 2004 elections."

Conservative Decision '08: "We need not have a free Iraq that is in love with America; we only need a country that loves its freedom. That is victory, and it is within reach." Picking up on a report by New York Times' Filkins that the vote will reveal a "fissure" between Islamic and secular Iraqis, pro-war Secular Blasphemy comments: "More or less like the US, then. If the secularists and their allies manage to get close to half the vote, that would be a quite decisive repudiation of any alleged Islamist agenda."

Liberal BAGnewsNotes features a poster by secular Afghans who weren't happy with how U.S. official Zalmay Khalilzad's work in their country; the implication is that Khalilzad will do the same in Iraq: "Of course, this process would be managed by pre-established guidelines advantageous to Western interests. So, if you asked me who won, I'd say Khalilzad did."

On 12/14, the New York Times caused a stir by reporting that fraudulent ballots had been stopped at the Iraqi border. But according to Reuters, the Iraqi general in charge of the borders says it never happened. News Busters points out that the Times story was single-sourced, and asks, "who is trying to discredit the election, the unnamed source or the New York Times?"

PLAMEGATE: The Bobs

Hardly a day after Bob Novak made waves by publicly asserting he and Washington Post's Bob Woodward shared the same source, Novak is now quoted in the Raleigh News & Observer saying: "I'm confident the president knows who the source is. I'd be amazed if he doesn't. So I say, 'Don't bug me. Don't bug Bob Woodward. Bug the president as to whether he should reveal who the source is.'" Andrew Sullivan makes it his quote of the day; NRO's K.J. Lopez figures this means Plamegate will overtake Iraq as the day's big news.

TalkLeft, who thinks the source was NSA Stephen Hadley, expects an indictment to be based on Karl Rove's initial failure to mention his conversation with Time's Cooper in 10/03, adding: "No matter which way I slice it, it seems Luskin needed to pull one more rabbit out of his hat at the 11th hour. Either his grand jury testimony did it, or Viveca buried Rove." JustOneMinute, which leans toward ex-State Undersec. Dick Armitage as the source, responds: "Oh, please -- Rove forgot to mention Cooper in October 2003? The Department of Justice also forgot to ask about Cooper in their original document request ... What will Fitzgerald's indictment say? 'How dare you forget about the reporter we forgot to ask about?'"

WHITE HOUSE '08: Commonwealth Of Speculation

NRO's Jim Geraghty: "Romney's one electoral victory in his political career ... strikes me as a rather light record, and obviously, the Massachusetts governor doesn't get many opportunities to work on foreign policy and the war on terror. However, a domestic-policy oriented governor ... may have a chance to surpass expectations... if, as some suspect, we are seeing signs of a resurgence of isolationism." Romney critic Pam's House Blend has a roundup of Free Republic posts on Romney, and suspects he's "got a lot of work to do to win over that crowd." FullosseousFlap's Dental Blog writes that Romney's negative is "never standing for re-election to his only political office. ... Romney can run but the nomination belongs to either Rudy Giuliani or John McCain." Liberal Oliver Willis: "The question is -- which Romney will you get? The pro-choice one, or the one who said he was just faking that? The one for rights for gays, or the one against it? The one who favored civil unions, but then flip flopped on it?"

Alexander McClure of PoliPundit calls Romney's move "the most selfish and stupid decision of his life. ... I hope the fates ordain that he suffers the same fate as his father, [ex-MI Gov] George Romney when he sought the Presidency in 1964 and 1968. ... Simply put, he ran instead of fighting for re-election in Massachusetts. We cannot afford to have that kind of politician leading the party."

PENTAGON: From Tort Reform To Torture Reform?

Balloon Juice's John Cole castigates a "shameless" Wall Street Journal op-ed arguing that the McCain amendment would outlaw practices that are far from torture, such as stress positions. But Cole thinks they avoid mentioning some of the worst practices. He snarks: "Maybe I am not as manly a man as say, Paul Gigot or Daniel Henninger, but ... it sounds to me like someone else is playing fast and loose with definitions." The amendment passed the House last p.m. by 308-122. Late in the a.m., Andrew Sullivan writes: "I'm told a White House statement is imminent on the McCain Amendent. I'm told the White House has embraced the amendment, with no changes. If true, this is a huge step forward for the president, the war and American honor. It also has, I think, implications for McCain's possible succession to Bush as president. "

John Hinderaker of Power Line, citing a Washington Times report that Dems plan to filibuster the Patriot Act: "We've come a long way, obviously, since 2001, and the Democrats appear to be betting on the popularity of their antiwar position. They also hope to gain political protection from the fact that four Republican Senators join in their objections to the Act, and may even vote against cloture, thereby helping to kill the extension of the Act. I think that's a political miscalculation; it appears that we're going to find out who is reading the situation correctly."

Instapundit's Glenn Reynolds has a lengthy round-up on the torture debate.

Sen. Russ Feingold (D-WI) again updates on the progress of Patriot Act at TPM Cafe.

BLOGS VS. THE MSM: The Froom Of The System

UC-Berkeley economist Brad DeLong spoke on the phone with Washington Post's Harris, and posts a partial transcript of the conversation. DeLong wants to know whether Harris knew RNC eCampaign dir. Patrick Ruffini was BC'04 webmaster' Harris had approvingly cited complaints by Ruffini about Froomkin earlier in '05 (see 12/13 Blogometer, and our 4/4 edition for the original dispute). Harris would say little on the record; to DeLong it's an issue of "grassroots" organizing vs. "astroturfing."

Duncan Black defends WPNI columnist Dan Froomkin against complaints that his opinion column is too easily confused with news reporters: "One thing that people should ask" Froomkin's critics "why he hasn't seen fit to make any complaints about David Broder's presence at the Post? Broder has written a column for the Post for years, and he also still (though with declining frequency) puts his byline on news stories. I actually don't care that he wears two hats, but one would imagine that it would offend [the critics'] delicate sensibilities. Of course the answer is that Broder is Broder and no WATB is going to complain about the Dean." Black's acronymic term for Froomkin's critics -- WATB -- is spelled out here.

Centrist Jeff Jarvis has a lengthy post defending Froomkin as well. A sample: "Froomkin's column is popular with readers... but not with print editors. What does that tell us?"

IN THE STATES: It's The Little Things

Markos Moulitsas checks out the Web sites of the 2 Dems running for MT SEN. "Notice one major, substantive difference?" State Senate Pres. Jon Tester "is not afraid to say he's a Democrat." Aud. John Morrison "apparently is. It's impossible to rebuild the Democratic Party brand if they won't tell voters which party they represent. ... It's all part of rebuilding the party brand. [Dem MT Gov. Brian] Schweitzer is also unafraid to let people know he's a Democrat." In an earlier post, Kos notes that Schweitzer "is currently working to put an anti-lobbyist initiative on the 2006 ballot, allowing him and Montana Democrats to highlight the issue of corruption in those crucial mid-term elections. And Burns is doing everything he can do to validate the Democratic strategy."

MISCELLANY: Oh, Canada

• AP reports that the Ford Motor Co. is reversing itself (again), and will resume advertising in gay publications. Pressure from religious groups had caused them to withdraw the spots; AMERICAblog's John Aravosisled the counter-charge on this for several weeks. He headlines his latest post: "We Won." He also links to a letter (PDF) from Ford explaining its decision.
• Josh Marshall, on the Canadian elections, where the U.S. amb. David Wilkins admonished the Liberal party to relent in its criticism of the U.S.: "The whole thing vaguely reminds me of Gerhard Schroeder's 2002 reelection campaign. In the world of Bushdom, every center-left leader gets to win once on his own steam and then a second time by running on domestic disdain for George W. Bush. It's good politics. Everywhere." Captain's Quarters points out that PM Paul Martin, in criticizing the amb., mistakenly referred to him as "Williams," and made no correction: "He couldn't ask someone to double-check Wilkins' name? Martin supposedly has held high-level contacts with the American ambassador for months on the softwood lumber issue and other NAFTA concerns."
• As we've noted earlier this week, The Agitator's Radley Balko has been promoting the case of MS death row inmate Cory Maye, whose conviction Balko argues was highly unjust. But at Right Wing News, John Hawkins argues that Balko and others have got numerous facts about the case wrong, and that Maye is indeed guilty: "What it all comes down to is that the cops had a warrant, identified themselves as police officers twice, and then Maye deliberately and knowingly chose to shoot one of them to death. For that crime, Maye deserves the needle, the noose, or the chair -- not sympathy."
• At Confirm Them, Carol Liebau comments on the "reported strategy" of SCOTUS nominee Samuel Alito's opponents is to "paint him as the second coming of Robert Bork": "It seems pretty significant that the left has to cast back to 1987 for a template of a successful derailing of a Supreme Court nomination. Because that's the first (and, really, the only) time they were successful in accomplishing it."
• Crooks and Liars posts video and transcribed excerpts of Bush's interview on "Special Report" last p.m., singling out in particular a quote where he praises Defense Sec. Don Rumsfeld: "I tell you, he is doing a heckuva good job."
• This p.m., a handful of NYC political bloggers are throwing a party -- the invite is open, just like the bar, but it'll cost you $30 at the door. Details here.

BLOGGER SPOTLIGHT: From Sea To Sheinin Sea

Today the Blogometer talks to righty Karol Sheinin, who writes Alarming News.

What is your full name?

Karol Sheinin

What is your age?

28

Where did you grow up?

Born deep in the USSR, raised in Brooklyn, New York.

Where do you live now?

Manhattan

What is your occupation? Have you ever worked on a political campaign or for the mainstream media?

I'm a political consultant so I've worked on a number of campaigns. I do mostly PR.

When did you start blogging and why?

Three years ago. Like a lot of bloggers, I was forwarding articles with my snarky comments to friends and it just made more sense to have it all in one place. And also because there are so many hip-hop lyrics that make perfect post titles.

What has been your favorite post, or favorite story to write about, in that time?

I loved covering the presidential election. I was working for Bush in Colorado and got to be on the ground seeing the reality of what was happening. My favorite post was written the day after Election Day, when it was still unclear if Bush was definitely the winner, about the lessons I learned from this election. And just so it doesn't seem like my favorite post is one in which I gloat, I also liked my sad post about Herman Cain, who I worked for when he ran, and lost, in the US Senate primary in Georgia. Basically, I like my election round-ups.

Describe your typical blogging schedule. And what is your average output?

I blog several times a day. Less around election time because I get very busy.

Who is your favorite political blogger? Favorite non-political blogger?

I like the big ones because they tend to be so comprehensive. Michelle Malkin, Instapundit, LGF, I can't live without them. As for non-political ones, I follow the lives of two of my girlfriends, Jessica at The New Vintage, Ari Goes Down and Petitedov religiously. I love Post Secret. I also love the trashy celeb gossip at Perez Hilton though I only vaguely know who most of the people are. I guess I just like hearing secrets, either from regular people on postcards or about celebs via Perez.

Who is your favorite mainstream media columnist?

I know it's not very original because everyone loves him, but Mark Steyn. I also really like James Taranto and Jonah Goldberg a lot. Actually, do any of those three qualify as 'mainstream'?

What is your favorite television news program, either network or cable?

I rarely watch TV, in particular news programs.

What MSM-produced websites (i.e. newspapers, magazines) do you visit on a daily basis?

Opinionjournal.com, ABCnews.com (but only for The Note) and the NY Times.

What non-MSM websites (i.e. blogs) do you visit on a daily basis?

I try to visit every blog on my blogroll daily but when time is tight, I make sure to visit these:

• Clarified is one of the few readable liberals.
• Protein Wisdom has made me spit up laughing more times than I can count. Usually coffee.
• Ace of Spades, my co-host on the weekly talk show 'Hoist the Black Flag' (which airs Tuesdays 4-5 EST on www.rightalk.com), only like several hundred times a day.
• Urban Elephants has done a great job creating an online NY Republican community.
• Vodkapundit
• Cathy Seipp is my hero. I want to be as badass as her someday.
• The NY Observer's Politicker blog has become the daily must-read for anyone involved in NY politics.
• Dorian Davis -- if he blogged more often.
• Dean Esmay
• PoliPundit
• James Lileks' The Bleat and Screedblog are both always genius.

How often, or do you ever, read a newspaper in its dead-tree (i.e. print) form?

Once or twice a week, mostly local weekly papers that I read for my job that aren't available online.

How do you see the new media and old media affecting and influencing each other in the next five years?

They're in a symbiotic relationship. I don't see that changing for awhile.

THOUGHT OF THE DAY: What Democracy Looks Like

Conservative Patterico's Pontifications quotes radio talker Hugh Hewitt asking Los Angeles Times' Michael Hitzlik whether he thinks Iraqis are better off now than they were under Saddam Hussein. Hitzlik isn't sure. Patterico has a proposal to settle the issue. He writes, the "question is, of course, reminiscent of Ronald Reagan's question in the 1984 election: are you better off than you were four years ago? That question was decided by an election. Call me crazy, but maybe we should have an election in Iraq that puts Saddam on the ballot, vs. the current slate of representatives. Let the Iraqi people choose. Do they want Saddam back? Or do they want a free and democratic Iraq?"

LEST WE FORGET: Grand Olde Shoppe

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Posted by at December 15, 2005 12:51 PM

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